Prediction of outcome from the chest radiograph appearance on day 7 of very prematurely born infants

Prediction Models for Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Preterm Infants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To review systematically and assess the accuracy of prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) at 36 weeks of postmenstrual age.

STUDY DESIGN

Searches were conducted in MEDLINE and EMBASE. Studies published between 1990 and 2022 were included if they developed or validated a prediction model for BPD or the combined outcome death/BPD at 36 weeks in the first 14 days of life in infants born preterm. Data were extracted independently by 2 authors following the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (ie, CHARMS) and PRISMA guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (ie, PROBAST).

RESULTS

Sixty-five studies were reviewed, including 158 development and 108 externally validated models. Median c-statistic of 0.84 (range 0.43-1.00) was reported at model development, and 0.77 (range 0.41-0.97) at external validation. All models were rated at high risk of bias, due to limitations in the analysis part. Meta-analysis of the validated models revealed increased c-statistics after the first week of life for both the BPD and death/BPD outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Although BPD prediction models perform satisfactorily, they were all at high risk of bias. Methodologic improvement and complete reporting are needed before they can be considered for use in clinical practice. Future research should aim to validate and update existing models.

Diagnosis and management of bronchopulmonary dysplasia

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is the most common chronic lung disease in infants and is associated with increased mortality, respiratory morbidity, neurodevelopmental impairment, and increased healthcare costs. In parallel with advances made in the field of neonatal intensive care, the phenotype of BPD has evolved from a fibrocystic disease affecting late preterm infants to one of impaired parenchymal development and dysregulated vascular growth predominantly affecting infants born before 29 weeks' gestational age. BPD has been shown to have significant lifelong consequences. Adults with BPD have been found to have abnormal lung function tests, reduced exercise tolerance, and may be at increased risk for developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Evidence shows that BPD occurs secondary to genetic-environmental interactions in an immature lung. In this review, we evaluate the various clinical definitions, imaging modalities, and biomarker data that are helpful in making an early diagnosis of BPD. In addition, we evaluate recent evidence about the prevention and treatment of BPD. We discuss the invasive and non-invasive ventilation strategies and pharmacological agents used in the early, evolving, and established phases of BPD.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes Until 2 Years of Age in Preterm Infants With Typical Chest Imaging Findings of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia: A Propensity Score Analysis

Objective: The goal of the current study was to assess the associations of typical chest imaging findings of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in preterm infants with clinical characteristics and outcomes until 2 years of age. Method: This retrospective cohort study enrolled 256 preterm infants with BPD who were admitted between 2014 and 2018. A propensity score analysis was used to adjust for confounding factors. The primary outcomes were the severity of BPD, home oxygen therapy (HOT) at discharge and mortality between 28 days after birth and 2 years of age. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify related variables of mortality. Results: Seventy-eight patients with typical chest imaging findings were enrolled, of which 50 (64.1%) were first found by CXR, while 28 (35.9%) were first found by CT. In addition, 85.9% (67/78) were discovered before 36 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA) (gestational age [GA] < 32 weeks) or before 56 days after birth (GA > 32 weeks). After propensity score matching, the matched groups consisted of 58 pairs of patients. Those with typical imaging findings had a remarkably higher mortality rate (29.3 vs. 12.1%, p = 0.022, OR 3.021), higher proportion of severe BPD (32.8 vs. 12.1%, p = 0.003, OR 4.669) and higher rate of HOT at discharge (74.1 vs. 46.6%, p = 0.002, OR 3.291) than those without typical imaging findings. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that typical imaging findings ≤ 7 days and typical typical imaging findings >7 days were independent risk factors for mortality in preterm infants with BPD (OR 7.794, p = 0.004; OR 4.533, p = 0.001). Conclusions: More attention should be given to chest imaging findings of BPD, especially in the early stage (within 7 days). Early recognition of the development of BPD helps early individualized treatment of BPD. Clinical Trial Registration:www.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT04163822.

Bubbly and cystic appearance on chest radiograph of extremely preterm infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia is associated with wheezing disorder

AIM

Bubbly/cystic appearance on chest X-ray (CXR) is an important factor in cases of severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). We aimed to determine whether CXR -based BPD classifications obtained in extremely preterm infants with oxygen dependency at 28 days after birth (BPD28) is associated with wheezing disorders.

METHODS

This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study of population data from infants (body weight, <1500 g) enrolled in the Neonatal Research Network of Japan. Of the 15 480 infants born at <28 weeks of gestation between 2003 and 2012, 8979 met the BPD28 criteria, and 4007 were classified as the no BPD28 group. BPD28 infants were classified according to the bubbly/cystic or no bubbly/cystic appearance on CXR at postnatal ≧28 days. The effects on wheezing disorder at 3 years of age were analysed.

RESULTS

Bubbly/cystic BPD28 infants showed higher rates of wheezing disorders compared with no BPD28 infants. Bubbly/cystic BPD28 (odds ratio 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.2) was a significant independent factor for wheezing disorders.

CONCLUSION

A bubbly/cystic appearance on CXR with BPD28 was a potential risk factor of wheezing disorders at 3 years of age. This may be a useful early diagnostic tool at ≧28 postnatal days in extremely preterm infants.

Impact of chest radiography-based definition of bronchopulmonary dysplasia

BACKGROUND

Bubbly/cystic appearance on chest radiograph is an important factor in severe-type bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in Japan. The aim of this study was to determine the perinatal characteristics and neonatal complications of the bubbly/cystic(+) group in extremely preterm infants with BPD, that is, oxygen dependency at day 28 after birth (BPD28).

METHODS

This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study of population data from infants (birthweight, <1,500 g) enrolled in the Neonatal Research Network of Japan. Of the 15 480 infants born at <28 weeks' gestational age (GA) between 2003 and 2012, 8,979 met the BPD28 criteria. The BPD28 infants were classified according to bubbly/cystic appearance on radiograph (±) at >28 postnatal days.

RESULTS

The bubbly/cystic(+) group had lower GA and birthweight and required longer mechanical ventilation and oxygen dependency than the bubbly/cystic(-) group. After adjustment for confounding factors, bubbly/cystic appearance was an independent risk factor for home oxygen therapy at discharge.

CONCLUSION

Bubbly/cystic appearance on chest radiograph was a predictor of short-term respiratory outcomes in infants with BPD28, which is diagnosed much earlier (≥28 postnatal days), and has a potentially different etiology to BPD36 (oxygen and/or positive pressure respiratory support dependency at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age).

Interstitial pneumonia pattern on day 7 chest radiograph predicts bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants

Background

Early identification of infants at higher risk of developing bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) may enable a targeted approach to reduce BPD. We aimed to evaluate the hypothesis that the interstitial pneumonia pattern on the day 7 chest radiograph predicts BPD or death before 36 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA).

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was performed on 336 preterm infants (birth weight < 1500 g and gestational age < 32 postmenstrual weeks) who were admitted to a single tertiary academic center between January 2008 and December 2014. Day 7 chest radiographs were independently reviewed by two pediatric radiologists who were unaware of the clinical information regarding each individual infant.

Results

Data from 304 infants who survived more than 7 days after birth were collected. The interstitial pneumonia pattern on the day 7 chest radiograph was independently associated with BPD or death before 36 weeks PMA (odds ratio [OR] 4.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–14.4). The interstitial pneumonia pattern on the day 7 chest radiograph predicted BPD or death with a specificity of 98%. Histologic chorioamnionitis was a preceding factor that was independently associated with the interstitial pneumonia pattern on the day 7 chest radiograph (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.3–10.3).

Conclusions

The interstitial pneumonia pattern on the day 7 chest radiograph has a high specificity for predicting BPD or death and can be utilized to select high-risk preterm infants who will benefit from potentially preventive interventions against BPD.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12887-017-0881-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Biomarkers, Early Diagnosis, and Clinical Predictors of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia

The pathogenesis of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is multifactorial, and the clinical phenotype of BPD is extremely variable. Several clinical and laboratory biomarkers have been proposed for the early identification of infants at higher risk of BPD and for determination of prognosis of infants with a diagnosis of BPD. The authors review available literature on prediction tools and biomarkers of BPD, using clinical variables and biomarkers based on imaging, lung function measures, and measurements of various analytes in different body fluids that have been determined to be associated with BPD either in a targeted manner or by unbiased omic profiling.

Clinical prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a systematic review and external validation study

Background

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a common complication of preterm birth. Very different models using clinical parameters at an early postnatal age to predict BPD have been developed with little extensive quantitative validation. The objective of this study is to review and validate clinical prediction models for BPD.

Methods

We searched the main electronic databases and abstracts from annual meetings. The STROBE instrument was used to assess the methodological quality. External validation of the retrieved models was performed using an individual patient dataset of 3229 patients at risk for BPD. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess discrimination for each model by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed for the best discriminating models by visually comparing predicted and observed BPD probabilities.

Results

We identified 26 clinical prediction models for BPD. Although the STROBE instrument judged the quality from moderate to excellent, only four models utilised external validation and none presented calibration of the predictive value. For 19 prediction models with variables matched to our dataset, the AUCs ranged from 0.50 to 0.76 for the outcome BPD. Only two of the five best discriminating models showed good calibration.

Conclusions

External validation demonstrates that, except for two promising models, most existing clinical prediction models are poor to moderate predictors for BPD. To improve the predictive accuracy and identify preterm infants for future intervention studies aiming to reduce the risk of BPD, additional variables are required. Subsequently, that model should be externally validated using a proper impact analysis before its clinical implementation.

Frequency and clinical correlates of radiographic patterns of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in very low birth weight infants by term age

Our aim was to study the frequency and clinical correlates of two radiographic patterns of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), the cystic BPD (cBPD) and the leaky lung syndrome (LLS). Radiographic findings of BPD from sixth day of life until term in a cohort of 82 very low birth weight (VLBW) infants were evaluated and scored independently by a neonatologist and a paediatric radiologist. Data on prenatal factors and events during the first hospitalisation were collected prospectively. Forty-four (53.7%) infants showed radiographic evidence of BPD, 19 (23.2%) cBPD and 25 (30.5%) LLS. In multivariate analysis, the best predictors for radiographic BPD were oxygen dependency at 28 days (odds ratio (OR) 10.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.49-41.4]), more than 2 days on ventilator (OR 10.4 [95% CI 1.8-61.5]) and volume expanders in the first 2 h (OR 7.36 [95% CI 1.32-41.2]). During the first week of life, infants with radiographic BPD received less energy per kilogram (p < 0.001) and more daily fluids per kilogram of body weight (p = 0.013). Sixty-two percent of the infants with radiographic BPD were not oxygen dependent at 36 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA). Seventeen (89.5%) of the 19 infants who needed oxygen supplementation at 36 weeks PMA also had abnormal chest X-rays.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiographic BPD findings appeared to be common in VLBW infants. In addition to the well-known respiratory risk factors (oxygen and ventilator therapy), poor nutrition and excessive fluid administration in early life seem to be significantly associated with radiological findings of lung injury in these patients.