Modeling rates of life form cover change in burned and unburned alpine heathland subject to experimental warming

Early-melting snowpatch plant communities are transitioning into novel states

Snowpatch plant community distribution and composition are strongly tied to the duration of long-lasting snow cover in alpine areas; they are vulnerable to global climatic changes that result in warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons. We used a revisitation study to quantify early-melting snowpatch floristic and functional diversity change in southern Australia, and document shrub size-class distributions over time to detect evidence for their encroachment into snowpatches, a key prediction with climatic change. Early-melting snowpatch vegetation has declined in areal extent, changed in species composition, and shrub and tussock grass cover has increased, but changes in functional trait diversity were less clear. Species gains, particularly by non-clonal species, accounted for most of the floristic change observed. Shrub recruitment was ongoing by most shrub species. Biotic differentiation is occurring; many early-melting snowpatches are transitioning to a novel state with changed composition and taller vegetation structure, but there is little evidence for species loss having occurred. Given enough time, however, the long-term loss of species is likely (i.e. biotic homogenisation) if taller shrubs outcompete short-statured snowpatch species. Our results provide evidence that this alpine ecosystem is forming a novel community with an uncertain future.

Survival and growth of a high-mountain daisy transplanted outside its local range, and implications for climate-induced distribution shifts

Field transplant experiments can improve our understanding of the effects of climate on distributions of plants versus a milieu of biotic factors which may be mediated by climate. We use a transplant experiment to test how survival and growth of a mountain-top daisy (Podolepis robusta), when planted within and outside its current local range, varies as a function of individual plant size, elevation, aspect and the presence of other vegetation. We expected a home-site advantage for the species, with highest survival and growth within the species' current elevational limits, and a decline in vital rates above (due to physiological limitations) and below (due to competition with near-neighbours) these limits. Transplant survival during the beginning of the census was high (89 %), though by the third growing season, 36 % of initial transplants were remaining. Elevation had a significant negative effect on individual mortality rates; plants growing at higher elevations had a lower estimated hazard rate and thus, higher survival relative to those planted at elevations below the current lower limit of the distribution. By contrast, we detected no significant effect of elevation on growth rates. Small vegetation gaps had no effect on growth rates, though we found a negative, but non-significant, effect on mortality rates. Aspect had a very strong impact on growth. Plants transplanted to cool aspects had a significantly lower growth rate relative to transplants growing on a warm aspect. Conversely, aspect was not a significant predictor of individual mortality rates. Restrictions on the local distribution of P. robusta appear to be governed by mortality drivers at lower elevation and by growth drivers associated with aspect. We highlight that our ability to understand the drivers of distributions in current and future climates will be limited if contextual- and individual-level plant responses remain understudied.

Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement: An Australian mountain ecosystems case study

Conservation managers are under increasing pressure to make decisions about the allocation of finite resources to protect biodiversity under a changing climate. However, the impacts of climate and global change drivers on species are outpacing our capacity to collect the empirical data necessary to inform these decisions. This is particularly the case in the Australian Alps which have already undergone recent changes in climate and experienced more frequent large-scale bushfires. In lieu of empirical data, we use a structured expert elicitation method (the IDEA protocol) to estimate the change in abundance and distribution of nine vegetation groups and 89 Australian alpine and subalpine species by the year 2050. Experts predicted that most alpine vegetation communities would decline in extent by 2050; only woodlands and heathlands are predicted to increase in extent. Predicted species-level responses for alpine plants and animals were highly variable and uncertain. In general, alpine plants spanned the range of possible responses, with some expected to increase, decrease or not change in cover. By contrast, almost all animal species are predicted to decline or not change in abundance or elevation range; more species with water-centric life-cycles are expected to decline in abundance than other species. While long-term ecological data will always be the gold standard for informing the future of biodiversity, the method and outcomes outlined here provide a pragmatic and coherent basis upon which to start informing conservation policy and management in the face of rapid change and a paucity of data.

Effects of simulated warming on bacterial diversity and abundance in tropical soils from East Malaysia using open top chambers

The effects of global warming are increasingly evident, where global surface temperatures and atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide have increased in past decades. Given the role of terrestrial bacteria in various ecological functions, it is important to understand how terrestrial bacteria would respond towards higher environmental temperatures. This study aims to determine soil bacterial diversity in the tropics and their response towards in situ warming using an open-top chamber (OTC). OTCs were set up in areas exposed to sunlight throughout the year in the tropical region in Malaysia. Soil samples were collected every 3 months to monitor changes in bacterial diversity using V3-V4 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing inside the OTCs (treatment plots) and outside the OTCs (control plots). After 12 months of simulated warming, an average increase of 0.81 to 1.15 °C was recorded in treatment plots. Significant changes in the relative abundance of bacterial phyla such as Bacteroidetes and Chloroflexi were reported. Increases in the relative abundance of Actinobacteria were also observed in treatment plots after 12 months. Substantial changes were observed at the genus level, where most bacterial genera decreased in relative abundance after 12 months. This study demonstrated that warming can alter soil bacteria in tropical soils from Kota Kinabalu.

Climatic warming strengthens a positive feedback between alpine shrubs and fire

Climate change is expected to increase fire activity and woody plant encroachment in arctic and alpine landscapes. However, the extent to which these increases interact to affect the structure, function and composition of alpine ecosystems is largely unknown. Here we use field surveys and experimental manipulations to examine how warming and fire affect recruitment, seedling growth and seedling survival in four dominant Australian alpine shrubs. We found that fire increased establishment of shrub seedlings by as much as 33-fold. Experimental warming also doubled growth rates of tall shrub seedlings and could potentially increase their survival. By contrast, warming had no effect on shrub recruitment, postfire tussock regeneration, or how tussock grass affected shrub seedling growth and survival. These findings indicate that warming, coupled with more frequent or severe fires, will likely result in an increase in the cover and abundance of evergreen shrubs. Given that shrubs are one of the most flammable components in alpine and tundra environments, warming is likely to strengthen an existing feedback between woody species abundance and fire in these ecosystems.