Generalist predator, cyclic voles and cavity nests: testing the alternative prey hypothesis

The abundance of small mammals is positively linked to survival from nest depredation but negatively linked to local recruitment of a ground nesting precocial bird

Generalist predators using small mammals as their primary prey are suggested to shift hunting alternative prey such as bird nests, when small mammals are in short supply (the alternative prey hypothesis, APH). Nest survival and survival of young individuals should be positively linked to small mammal abundance and negatively linked to predator abundance, but little information exists from survival of chicks, especially until recruitment. We test these predictions of the APH using 13 years (2002-2014) of life history data from a ground nesting shorebird breeding on coastal meadows. We use small mammal abundance in the previous autumn as a proxy for spring predator abundance, mainly of mammalian predators. We examine whether small mammal abundance in the spring and previous autumn explain annual variation in nest survival from depredation and local recruitment of the southern dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii. As predicted by the APH, survival from nest predation was positively linked to spring small mammal abundance and negatively linked to autumn small mammal abundance. Importantly, local recruitment showed opposite responses. This counterintuitive result may be explained by density-dependent survival. When nest depredation rates are low, predators may show stronger numerical and functional responses to high shorebird chick abundance on coastal meadows, whereas in years of high nest depredation, few hatching chicks lure fewer predators. The opposite effects on nest and local recruitment demonstrate the diverse mechanisms by which population size variation in primary prey can affect dynamics of alternative prey populations.

Predation of boreal owl nests by pine martens in the boreal forest does not vary as predicted by the alternative prey hypothesis

The alternative prey hypothesis (APH) states that temporally synchronous population fluctuations of microtine rodents and other small herbivores are caused by generalist predators that show functional and numerical responses to the abundance of microtines. This would lead to an increased predation of alternative prey in the low phase of the microtine population fluctuations. One candidate for such a predator is the tree-climbing pine marten (Martes martes), which includes bird eggs in its diet, among them eggs of the cavity-nesting boreal owl (Aegolius funereus). I used long-term data to test whether pine marten predation of boreal owl eggs in nest boxes varied as predicted by the APH. The probability of predation of owl nests situated < 45 km from a site where microtines were trapped in spring during four decades increased with microtine trapping index, which is opposite to the prediction from the APH. As the data set was limited to one nest per box, I extended it spatially and temporally using the clutch size of each boreal owl nest as a proxy for the actual microtine abundance at the site. The probability of nest predation increased with clutch size. However, the effects of microtine index and owl clutch size became non-significant when I controlled for habitat, and in particular cavity age, which had an overriding effect. The increase in predation probability with cavity age suggests that the long-term spatial memory of pine marten is an important factor in the pattern of its nest predation in tree cavities.

Calf/female ratio and population dynamics of wild forest reindeer in relation to wolf and moose abundances in a managed European ecosystem

BACKGROUND

The alternative prey hypothesis describes the mechanism for apparent competition whereby the mortality of the secondary prey species increases (and population size decreases decreases) by the increased predation by the shared predator if the population size of the primary prey decreases. Apparent competition is a process where the abundance of two co-existing prey species are negatively associated because they share a mutual predator, which negatively affects the abundance of both prey Here, we examined whether alternative prey and/or apparent competition hypothesis can explain the population dynamics and reproductive output of the secondary prey, wild forest reindeer (Rangifer tarandus fennicus) in Finland, in a predator-prey community in which moose (Alces alces) is the primary prey and the wolf (Canis lupus) is the generalist predator.

METHODS

We examined a 22-year time series (1996-2017) to determine how the population size and the calf/female ratio of wild forest reindeer in Eastern Finland were related to the abundances of wolf and moose. Only moose population size was regulated by hunting. Summer predation of wolves on reindeer focuses on calves. We used least squares regression (GLS) models (for handling autocorrelated error structures and resulting pseudo-R2s) and generalized linear mixed (GLMs) models (for avoidance of negative predictions) to determine the relationships between abundances. We performed linear and general linear models for the calf/female ratio of reindeer.

RESULTS AND SYNTHESIS

The trends in reindeer population size and moose abundance were almost identical: an increase during the first years and then a decrease until the last years of our study period. Wolf population size in turn did not show long-term trends. Change in reindeer population size between consecutive winters was related positively to the calf/female ratio. The calf/female ratio was negatively related to wolf population size, but the reindeer population size was related to the wolf population only when moose abundance was entered as another independent variable. The wolf population was not related to moose abundance even though it is likely to consist the majority of the prey biomass. Because reindeer and moose populations were positively associated, our results seemed to support the alternative prey hypothesis more than the apparent competition hypothesis. However, these two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive and the primary mechanism is difficult to distinguish as the system is heavily managed by moose hunting. The recovery of wild forest reindeer in eastern Finland probably requires ecosystem management involving both habitat restoration and control of species abundances.

Prey choice by a freshwater copepod on larval Aedes mosquitoes in the presence of alternative prey

Predator-prey interactions can have a significant impact on the abundance and distribution of species, but the outcome of these interactions is often context-dependent. In small freshwater habitats, predacious copepods are potential biological control agents for mosquito larvae. Through laboratory experiments, we tested if the presence of a non-mosquito prey (neonate Daphnia pulex) influenced prey selection of the predaceous copepod (Acanthocyclops vernalis) on 1^st instar Aedes mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus). Copepods were starved for 12 h prior to being exposed to the two prey types (larval mosquitoes and Daphnia) at three densities: 25 mosquitoes:75 Daphnia, 50 mosquitoes:50 Daphnia, 75 mosquitoes:25 Daphnia. Single prey choice trials for each species as well as no-predator trials were also established for controls. Copepods were effective predators, with a single copepod consuming up to 37 1^st instar mosquito larvae during the 24-h trials. The number of mosquitoes consumed increased with their relative density, but the proportion of mosquitoes consumed was highest when Aedes made up only 25% of the population. Results from our study show that in a simple predator/two-prey system, two species of larval mosquitoes (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) are preferentially consumed over an alternative zooplankton by the copepod predator Acanthocyclops vernalis.

Population Dynamics of Bank Voles Predicts Human Puumala Hantavirus Risk

Predicting risk of zoonotic diseases, i.e., diseases shared by humans and animals, is often complicated by the population ecology of wildlife host(s). We here demonstrate how ecological knowledge of a disease system can be used for early prediction of human risk using Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) in bank voles (Myodes glareolus), which causes Nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans, as a model system. Bank vole populations at northern latitudes exhibit multiannual fluctuations in density and spatial distribution, a phenomenon that has been studied extensively. Nevertheless, existing studies predict NE incidence only a few months before an outbreak. We used a time series on cyclic bank vole population density (1972-2013), their PUUV infection rates (1979-1986; 2003-2013), and NE incidence in Sweden (1990-2013). Depending on the relationship between vole density and infection prevalence (proportion of infected animals), either overall density of bank voles or the density of infected bank voles may be used to predict seasonal NE incidence. The density and spatial distribution of voles at density minima of a population cycle contribute to the early warning of NE risk later at its cyclic peak. When bank voles remain relatively widespread in the landscape during cyclic minima, PUUV can spread from a high baseline during a cycle, culminating in high prevalence in bank voles and potentially high NE risk during peak densities.