Response of barren-ground caribou to advancing spring phenology

Simultaneous estimation of the temporal and spatial extent of animal migration using step lengths and turning angles

BACKGROUND

Animals of many different species, trophic levels, and life history strategies migrate, and the improvement of animal tracking technology allows ecologists to collect increasing amounts of detailed data on these movements. Understanding when animals migrate is important for managing their populations, but is still difficult despite modelling advancements.

METHODS

We designed a model that parametrically estimates the timing of migration from animal tracking data. Our model identifies the beginning and end of migratory movements as signaled by change-points in step length and turning angle distributions. To this end, we can also use the model to estimate how an animal's movement changes when it begins migrating. In addition to a thorough simulation analysis, we tested our model on three datasets: migratory ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) in the Great Plains, barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) in northern Canada, and non-migratory brown bears (Ursus arctos) from the Canadian Arctic.

RESULTS

Our simulation analysis suggests that our model is most useful for datasets where an increase in movement speed or directional autocorrelation is clearly detectable. We estimated the beginning and end of migration in caribou and hawks to the nearest day, while confirming a lack of migratory behaviour in the brown bears. In addition to estimating when caribou and ferruginous hawks migrated, our model also identified differences in how they migrated; ferruginous hawks achieved efficient migrations by drastically increasing their movement rates while caribou migration was achieved through significant increases in directional persistence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach is applicable to many animal movement studies and includes parameters that can facilitate comparison between different species or datasets. We hope that rigorous assessment of migration metrics will aid understanding of both how and why animals move.

Svalbard reindeer winter diets: Long-term dietary shifts to graminoids in response to a changing climate

Arctic ecosystems are changing dramatically with warmer and wetter conditions resulting in complex interactions between herbivores and their forage. We investigated how Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) modify their late winter diets in response to long-term trends and interannual variation in forage availability and accessibility. By reconstructing their diets and foraging niches over a 17-year period (1995-2012) using serum δ¹³ C and δ¹⁵ N values, we found strong support for a temporal increase in the proportions of graminoids in the diets with a concurrent decline in the contributions of mosses. This dietary shift corresponds with graminoid abundance increases in the region and was associated with increases in population density, warmer summer temperatures and more frequent rain-on-snow (ROS) in winter. In addition, the variance in isotopic niche positions, breadths, and overlaps also supported a temporal shift in the foraging niche and a dietary response to extreme ROS events. Our long-term study highlights the mechanisms by which winter and summer climate changes cascade through vegetation shifts and herbivore population dynamics to alter the foraging niche of Svalbard reindeer. Although it has been anticipated that climate changes in the Svalbard region of the Arctic would be detrimental to this unique ungulate, our study suggests that environmental change is in a phase where conditions are improving for this subspecies at the northernmost edge of the Rangifer distribution.

Herbivores in Arctic ecosystems: Effects of climate change and implications for carbon and nutrient cycling

Arctic terrestrial herbivores influence tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics through their consumption of resources, waste production, and habitat-modifying behaviors. The strength of these effects is likely to change spatially and temporally as climate change drives shifts in herbivore abundance, distribution, and activity timing. Here, we review how herbivores influence tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics through their consumptive and nonconsumptive effects. We also present evidence for herbivore responses to climate change and discuss how these responses may alter the spatial and temporal distribution of herbivore impacts. Several current knowledge gaps limit our understanding of the changing functional roles of herbivores; these include limited characterization of the spatial and temporal variability in herbivore impacts and of how herbivore activities influence the cycling of elements beyond carbon. We conclude by highlighting approaches that will promote better understanding of herbivore effects on tundra ecosystems, including their integration into existing biogeochemical models, new applications of remote sensing techniques, and the continued use of distributed experiments.

Wolverines (Gulo gulo) in the Arctic: Revisiting distribution and identifying research and conservation priorities amid rapid environmental change

Wolverines (Gulo gulo) occupy most of the globe’s Arctic tundra. Given the rapidly warming climate and expanding human activity in this biome, understanding wolverine ecology, and therefore the species’ vulnerability to such changes, is increasingly important for developing research priorities and effective management strategies. Here, we review and synthesize knowledge of wolverines in the Arctic using both Western science sources and available Indigenous Knowledge (IK) to improve our understanding of wolverine ecology in the Arctic and better predict the species’ susceptibility to change. To accomplish this, we update the pan-Arctic distribution map of wolverines to account for recent observations and then discuss resulting inference and uncertainties. We use these patterns to contextualize and discuss potential underlying drivers of distribution and population dynamics, drawing upon knowledge of food habits, habitat associations, and harvest, as well as studies of wolverine ecology elsewhere. We then identify four broad areas to prioritize conservation and research efforts: (1) Monitoring trends in population abundance, demographics, and distribution and the drivers thereof, (2) Evaluating and predicting wolverines’ responses to ongoing climate change, particularly the consequences of reduced snow and sea ice, and shifts in prey availability, (3) Understanding wolverines’ response to human development, including the possible impact of wintertime over-snow travel and seismic testing to reproductive denning, as well as vulnerability to hunting and trapping associated with increased human access, and (4) Ensuring that current and future harvest are sustainable.

Behaviour is more important than thermal performance for an Arctic host-parasite system under climate change

Climate change is affecting Arctic ecosystems, including parasites. Predicting outcomes for host-parasite systems is challenging due to the complexity of multi-species interactions and the numerous, interacting pathways by which climate change can alter dynamics. Increasing temperatures may lead to faster development of free-living parasite stages but also higher mortality. Interactions between behavioural plasticity of hosts and parasites will also influence transmission processes. We combined laboratory experiments and population modelling to understand the impacts of changing temperatures on barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and their common helminth (Ostertagia gruehneri). We experimentally determined the thermal performance curves for mortality and development of free-living parasite stages and applied them in a spatial host-parasite model that also included behaviour of the parasite (propensity for arrested development in the host) and host (long-distance migration). Sensitivity analyses showed that thermal responses had less of an impact on simulated parasite burdens than expected, and the effect differed depending on parasite behaviour. The propensity for arrested development and host migration led to distinct spatio-temporal patterns in infection. These results emphasize the importance of considering behaviour-and behavioural plasticity-when projecting climate-change impacts on host-parasite systems.

Influence of maternity penning on the success and timing of parturition by mountain caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou)

Invasive conservation actions that require the capture and handling of individual animals are common, but the implications for both survival and reproduction are often not studied. Across North America, most populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin, 1788) are Threatened or Endangered. Maternity penning, where pregnant females are held in an enclosure until the calf is less vulnerable to predation, is one conservation action that is designed to increase population growth. Few studies have reported the influence of maternity penning on the occurrence or timing of parturition and the implications for reproduction. We quantified parturition success and dates of penned and free-ranging caribou within the Klinse-Za population of caribou found across east-central British Columbia, Canada. Parturition dates were identified using daily observations for penned caribou (n=41) and estimated dates for free-ranging caribou (n=27) generated using statistical modelling of GPS collar data. We related parturition outcomes to a range of ecological and environmental variables. We found that the occurrence and date of parturition did not differ between penned and free-ranging caribou. For all monitored animals there was an earlier calving date during years of higher snowfall and warmer winter weather. Our results suggested that maternity penning, a potentially invasive conservation action, did not increase or decrease the probability or date of parturition for this study population.

Increasing Arctic Tundra Flooding Threatens Wildlife Habitat and Survival: Impacts on the Critically Endangered Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus)

Climate change is causing Arctic temperatures to increase at least twice as fast as the planet on average. Temperature and precipitation are predicted to continue increasing, such that flooding might become more prevalent in the new Arctic. Increased flooding frequency and extreme flooding events may pose new threats to Arctic biodiversity through habitat disturbance and decreased survival. We used the Siberian crane (Grus leucogeranus) as a model organism to investigate how flooding influences nesting habitat availability and juvenile counts. When spring flooding destroys eggs, adults either do not raise any chicks or have reduced time to prepare them for their long migration to China, thus years with extensive flooding could negatively impact future crane generations. We used nest site observation data from 14 surveys between 1995 and 2019, habitat mapping based on Landsat 8 imagery, and species distribution modeling to predict Siberian crane potential nesting habitat. Nesting habitat loss due to extreme flooding was calculated by overlaying this potential nesting habitat with Global Surface Water data. The percent of potential flooded nest sites varied between 6.7–55% across years, with a significant increase between 2001 and 2018. Extreme flood events, as experienced in 2017 and 2018, eliminated almost half of the potential nesting habitat. Importantly, we found that the percentage of flooded nest sites across years was negatively correlated with the number of observed juveniles. The Arctic lowlands are exposed to seasonal water level fluctuations that species have evolved with and adapted to. Siberian cranes and other species depending on Arctic ecosystems are expected to continue adapting to changing flood conditions, but extreme flood events further threaten the long-term survival of critically endangered species. It is imperative to assess how ecosystems and species respond to climatic extremes to support Arctic conservation strategies.

Genomic legacy of migration in endangered caribou

Wide-ranging animals, including migratory species, are significantly threatened by the effects of habitat fragmentation and habitat loss. In the case of terrestrial mammals, this results in nearly a quarter of species being at risk of extinction. Caribou are one such example of a wide-ranging, migratory, terrestrial, and endangered mammal. In populations of caribou, the proportion of individuals considered as "migrants" can vary dramatically. There is therefore a possibility that, under the condition that migratory behavior is genetically determined, those individuals or populations that are migratory will be further impacted by humans, and this impact could result in the permanent loss of the migratory trait in some populations. However, genetic determination of migration has not previously been studied in an endangered terrestrial mammal. We examined migratory behavior of 139 GPS-collared endangered caribou in western North America and carried out genomic scans for the same individuals. Here we determine a genetic subdivision of caribou into a Northern and a Southern genetic cluster. We also detect >50 SNPs associated with migratory behavior, which are in genes with hypothesized roles in determining migration in other organisms. Furthermore, we determine that propensity to migrate depends upon the proportion of ancestry in individual caribou, and thus on the evolutionary history of its migratory and sedentary subspecies. If, as we report, migratory behavior is influenced by genes, caribou could be further impacted by the loss of the migratory trait in some isolated populations already at low numbers. Our results indicating an ancestral genetic component also suggest that the migratory trait and their associated genetic mutations could not be easily re-established when lost in a population.

Caribou and reindeer migrations in the changing Arctic

Caribou and reindeer, Rangifer tarandus, are the most numerous and socio-ecologically important terrestrial species in the Arctic. Their migrations are directly and indirectly affected by the seasonal nature of the northernmost regions, human development and population size; all of which are impacted by climate change. We review the most critical drivers of Rangifer migration and how a rapidly changing Arctic may affect them. In order to conserve large Rangifer populations, they must be allowed free passage along their migratory routes to reach seasonal ranges. We also provide some pragmatic ideas to help conserve Rangifer migrations into the future.

Spring phenology drives range shifts in a migratory Arctic ungulate with key implications for the future

Annual variation in phenology can have profound effects on the behavior of animals. As climate change advances spring phenology in ecosystems around the globe, it is becoming increasingly important to understand how animals respond to variation in the timing of seasonal events and how their responses may shift in the future. We investigated the influence of spring phenology on the behavior of migratory, barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a species that has evolved to cope with short Arctic summers. Specifically, we examined the effect of spring snow melt and vegetation growth on the current and potential future space-use patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH), which exhibits large, inter-annual shifts in their calving and post-calving distributions across the U.S.-Canadian border. We quantified PCH selection for snow melt and vegetation phenology using machine learning models, determined how selection resulted in annual shifts in space-use, and then projected future distributions based on climate-driven phenology models. Caribou exhibited strong, scale-dependent selection for both snow melt and vegetation growth. During the calving season, caribou selected areas at finer scales where the snow had melted and vegetation was greening, but within broader landscapes that were still brown or snow covered. During the post-calving season, they selected vegetation with intermediate biomass expected to have high forage quality. Annual variation in spring phenology predicted major shifts in PCH space-use. In years with early spring phenology, PCH predominately used habitat in Alaska, while in years with late phenology, they spent more time in Yukon. Future climate conditions were projected to advance spring phenology, shifting PCH calving and post-calving distributions further west into Alaska. Our results demonstrate that caribou selection for habitat in specific phenological stages drive dramatic shifts in annual space-use patterns, and will likely affect future distributions, underscoring the importance of maintaining sufficient suitable habitat to allow for behavioral plasticity.

Fall supplemental feeding increases population growth rate of an endangered caribou herd

Most woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations are declining primarily because of unsustainable predation resulting from habitat-mediated apparent competition. Wolf (Canis lupus) reduction is an effective recovery option because it addresses the direct effect of predation. We considered the possibility that the indirect effects of predation might also affect caribou population dynamics by adversely affecting summer foraging behaviour. If spring and/or summer nutrition was inadequate, then supplemental feeding in fall might compensate for that limitation and contribute to population growth. Improved nutrition and therefore body condition going into winter could increase adult survival and lead to improved reproductive success the next spring. To test that hypothesis, we fed high-quality food pellets to free-ranging caribou in the Kennedy Siding caribou herd each fall for six years, starting in 2014, to see if population growth rate increased. Beginning in winter 2015–16, the Province of British Columbia began a concurrent annual program to promote caribou population increase by attempting to remove most wolves within the Kennedy Siding and the adjacent caribou herds’ ranges. To evaluate the impact of feeding, we compared lambdas before and after feeding began, and to the population trend in the adjacent Quintette herd over the subsequent four years. Supplemental feeding appeared to have an incremental effect on population growth. Population growth of the Kennedy Siding herd was higher in the year after feeding began (λ = 1.06) compared to previous years (λ = 0.91) and to the untreated Quintette herd (λ = 0.95). Average annual growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd over the subsequent four years, where both feeding and wolf reduction occurred concurrently, was higher than in the Quintette herd where the only management action in those years was wolf reduction (λ = 1.16 vs. λ = 1.08). The higher growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd was due to higher female survival (96.2%/yr vs. 88.9%/yr). Many caribou were in relatively poor condition in the fall. Consumption of supplemental food probably improved their nutritional status which ultimately led to population growth. Further feeding experiments on other caribou herds using an adaptive management approach would verify the effect of feeding as a population recovery tool. Our results support the recommendation that multiple management actions should be implemented to improve recovery prospects for caribou.