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Folyovich A, Mátis R, Biczó D, Pálosi M, Béres-Molnár AK, Al-Muhanna N, Jarecsny T, Dudás E, Jánoska D, Toldi G, Páldy A. High average daily temperature in summer and the incidence of thrombolytic treatment for acute ischemic stroke. L'ENCEPHALE 2023:S0013-7006(23)00202-6. [PMID: 38040506 DOI: 10.1016/j.encep.2023.09.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2023] [Revised: 09/07/2023] [Accepted: 09/19/2023] [Indexed: 12/03/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Meteorological factors can increase stroke risk; however, their impact is not precisely understood. Heat waves during summer increase total mortality. Therefore, we hypothesized that the average daily temperature in summer may correlate with the incidence of thrombolytic treatment for acute ischemic stroke in Budapest and Pest County, Hungary. METHODS We analyzed the relationship between the average daily temperature in summer months and the daily number of thrombolytic treatments (TT) performed with the indication of acute ischemic stroke between 1st June and 31st August each year from 2007 to 2016. The analysis was also performed after the omission of the data of the last day of the months due to possible psychosocial impact reported in our previous study. Spearman's correlation was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS No significant correlation was found between the average summer daily temperature and the number of TT in the entire sample of the 10-year period. When omitting the data of the last day of each month, positive correlations were suspected in 2014 (r=0.225, P=0.034) and 2015 (r=0.276, P=0.009). CONCLUSION Our findings did not confirm an association between the average daily temperature in summer and the daily number of TT throughout the examined 10-year period. However, importantly, in 2014 and 2015, the years with the highest average daily temperatures in this period, a positive correlation was found. The level of correlation is modest, indicating that risk factors, both meteorological and non-meteorological, other than the average temperature, play equally important roles in determining the incidence of thrombolytic treatment for acute ischemic stroke on the population level.
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Affiliation(s)
- András Folyovich
- Department of Neurology and Stroke, Szent János Hospital, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Réka Mátis
- Faculty of Public Governance and International Studies, University of Public Service, Budapest, Hungary
| | | | - Mihály Pálosi
- National Institute of Health Insurance Fund Management, Budapest, Hungary
| | | | - Nadim Al-Muhanna
- Department of Neurology and Stroke, Szent János Hospital, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Tamás Jarecsny
- Department of Neurology and Stroke, Szent János Hospital, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Eszter Dudás
- Department of Neurology and Stroke, Szent János Hospital, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Dorottya Jánoska
- Department of Neurology and Stroke, Szent János Hospital, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Gergely Toldi
- Liggins Institute, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
| | - Anna Páldy
- National Public Health Center, Budapest, Hungary
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Kotecki P, Więckowska B, Stawińska-Witoszyńska B. The Impact of Meteorological Parameters and Seasonal Changes on Reporting Patients with Selected Cardiovascular Diseases to Hospital Emergency Departments: A Pilot Study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:4838. [PMID: 36981745 PMCID: PMC10049493 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20064838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2023] [Revised: 02/26/2023] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
(1) Background: So far, research results have confirmed the relationship between heat and cold stress, the fluctuations in atmospheric pressure and high relative humidity, and the vulnerability of patients with so-called "weather-dependent" diseases which could lead to death. This study aimed to determine the meteorological parameters, their interactions, and the seasonal changes of the most significant factors in predicting the number of patients reporting to the Emergency Departments (EDs) in Poznań (Poland) during 2019. (2) Methods: The analysis included the meteorological parameters and data of 3606 patients diagnosed with essential or complicated arterial hypertension, myocardial infarction, chronic ischemic heart disease, and ischemic or unspecified stroke by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). The meteorological data (days per week and seasonal data) were used to build a linear regression model to assess the changes in the daily number of reporting patients. The input data for the final model were selected based on the principal component analysis (PCA), and built for each delay and acceleration (reporting up to 3 days before the change or up to 3 days after the change of the meteorological parameter). (3) Results: A significantly lower number of reports was observed during weekends compared to working days (standardised b = -0.254, p-value < 0.0001) and three days before the maximum daily air temperature in the spring and summer period (standardised b = -0.748, p-value < 0.0001), while two days after the increase in the daily amplitude of atmospheric pressure (standardised b = 0.116, p-value = 0.0267), and also on the day of occurrence of the unfavourable interdiurnal air temperature change, an increase in the number of patients was noted (standardised b = 0.115, p-value = 0.0186). The changes in the last two parameters were statistically insignificant. Based on the obtained results, the negative impact of the changes in the meteorological conditions on the number of reports to the EDs in Poznań was determined.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paweł Kotecki
- Department of Epidemiology and Hygiene, Chair of Social Medicine, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, 60-806 Poznań, Poland
| | - Barbara Więckowska
- Department of Computer Science and Statistics, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, 60-806 Poznań, Poland
| | - Barbara Stawińska-Witoszyńska
- Department of Epidemiology and Hygiene, Chair of Social Medicine, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, 60-806 Poznań, Poland
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Toosty NT, Hagishima A, Tanaka KI. Heat health risk assessment analysing heatstroke patients in Fukuoka City, Japan. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0253011. [PMID: 34153053 PMCID: PMC8216561 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2021] [Accepted: 05/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Climate change, as a defining issue of the current time, is causing severe heat-related illness in the context of extremely hot weather conditions. In Japan, the remarkable temperature increase in summer caused by an urban heat island and climate change has become a threat to public health in recent years. Methods This study aimed to determine the potential risk factors for heatstroke by analysing data extracted from the records of emergency transport to the hospital due to heatstroke in Fukuoka City, Japan. In this regard, a negative binomial regression model was used to account for overdispersion in the data. Age-structure analyses of heatstroke patients were also embodied to identify the sub-population of Fukuoka City with the highest susceptibility. Results The daily maximum temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), along with differences in both the mean temperature and time-weighted temperature from those of the consecutive past days were detected as significant risk factors for heatstroke. Results indicated that there was a positive association between the resulting risk factors and the probability of heatstroke occurrence. The elderly of Fukuoka City aged 70 years or older were found to be the most vulnerable to heatstroke. Most of the aforementioned risk factors also encountered significant and positive associations with the risk of heatstroke occurrence for the group with highest susceptibility. Conclusion These results can provide insights for health professionals and stakeholders in designing their strategies to reduce heatstroke patients and to secure the emergency transport systems in summer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nishat Tasnim Toosty
- Energy and Environmental Engineering, Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Kasuga-koen, Kasuga-shi, Fukuoka, Japan
- Department of Statistics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- * E-mail:
| | - Aya Hagishima
- Energy and Environmental Engineering, Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Kasuga-koen, Kasuga-shi, Fukuoka, Japan
- Faculty of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Kasuga-koen, Kasuga-shi, Fukuoka, Japan
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Ma Y, Jiao H, Zhang Y, Cheng B, Feng F, Yu Z, Ma B. Impact of temperature changes between neighboring days on COPD in a city in Northeast China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:4849-4857. [PMID: 31845269 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-07313-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2019] [Accepted: 12/05/2019] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Sudden temperature changes between neighboring days (T24h) have adverse effects on human health. In this study, we used a time series analysis to evaluate the impact of T24h on the number of hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) from 2009 to 2012 in Changchun (the capital of Northeast China's Jilin province). We performed the analysis in a generalized additive model (GAM), and the controlling factors included long-term trends, day of the week effect, and the selected weather elements. We divided the entire study group into two gender subgroups (males and females) and two age subgroups (aged < 65 years and aged ≥ 65 years). T24h showed the greatest effect on the entire study group at lag 3 days. In particular, the greatest effect of T24h on females (males) occurred at lag 1 day (lag 3 days); the greatest effect of T24h on the aged ≥ 65 years (aged < 65 years) occurred at lag 1 day (lag 6 days). This indicates that temperature changes between neighboring days have a relatively more acute effect on the elderly and the females than on the younger people and the males. When T24h is less than zero, the highest RR of the number of hospital admissions for COPD occurred at lag 4 days during the warm season (1.025, 95% CI: 0.981, 1.069) and lag 3 days during the cold season (1.019, 95% CI: 0.988, 1.051). When T24h is greater than zero, the highest RR of the number of hospital admissions for COPD occurred at lag 6 days during the warm season (1.026, 95% CI: 0.977, 1.077) and lag 5 days during the cold season (1.021, 95% CI: 0.986, 1.057). The results of this study could be provided to local health authorities as scientific guidelines for controlling and preventing COPD in Changchun, China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxia Ma
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Haoran Jiao
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Yifan Zhang
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Bowen Cheng
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Fengliu Feng
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Zhiang Yu
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Bingji Ma
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
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Zolotokrylin AN, Titkova TB, Bokuchava DD. The influence of weather-climatic and social factors on population mortality from circulatory diseases in Russia. TERAPEVT ARKH 2018; 90:53-59. [PMID: 30701857 DOI: 10.26442/terarkh201890353-59] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
AIM To study the links between the standard mortality rate of the population from circulatory system diseases (CSD) with factors: weather-climatic (inter-day jumps in air temperature and atmospheric pressure by seasons and for the year) and social (average annual income per person and the number of doctors of all specialties) in Russia for the period 1995-2015. MATERIALS AND METHODS According to station data and data of reanalysis, seasonal and annual amounts of day-to-day jumps in air temperature were calculated more than the absolute value of 4° and 6°C and the atmospheric pressure more than the absolute value of 8 GPa. The links between climate variables and the mortality rate of the population, taking into account social factors, were investigated using factor analysis, including regression and variance analyses. RESULTS Annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps of different signs vary greatly on the territory: the maximum amounts are 3-4 times higher than the minimum ones. The geographical distribution of air temperature fluctuations differs from the distribution of atmospheric pressure fluctuations. The sum of temperature jumps in the absolute value of more than 6°C is about twice less than the sum of jumps more than 4°C, but they are characterized by similarity of geographical distribution. The sum of the jumps of temperature (pressure) is reduced during the summer is approximately two times compared to the winter. The maximum jumps are observed mainly in the Northern regions with low population density, but with high per capita income, while the minimum is observed in the South-Western parts of the European part of the country with high population density, as well as middle and low income. Global warming does not significantly affect the reduction of annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps. Factor analysis of social and climatic variables in the territory for each year indicates the dominance of the influence of the social factor (per capita income) on the mortality rate from CSD. CONCLUSION Factor analysis is integrated in the annual scale climatic and social variables showed a dominant effect on the coefficient of mortality from CSD, the factor of standard of living (per capita income of the population). Then the significance of the impact factors is consistently reduced: negative atmospheric pressure jumps, average seasonal pressure, health care level, positive pressure jumps. The significance of temperature variables is the smallest.
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Affiliation(s)
- A N Zolotokrylin
- Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
| | - T B Titkova
- Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
| | - D D Bokuchava
- Institute of Geography Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
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Urban A, Kyselý J. Application of spatial synoptic classification in evaluating links between heat stress and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in Prague, Czech Republic. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2018; 62:85-96. [PMID: 26337727 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-015-1055-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2014] [Revised: 07/20/2015] [Accepted: 08/23/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is here first employed in assessing heat-related mortality and morbidity in Central Europe. It is applied for examining links between weather patterns and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality and morbidity in an extended summer season (16 May-15 September) during 1994-2009. As in previous studies, two SSC air masses (AMs)-dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)-are associated with significant excess CVD mortality in Prague, while effects on CVD hospital admissions are small and insignificant. Excess mortality for ischaemic heart diseases is more strongly associated with DT, while MT has adverse effect especially on cerebrovascular mortality. Links between the oppressive AMs and excess mortality relate also to conditions on previous days, as DT and MT occur in typical sequences. The highest CVD mortality deviations are found 1 day after a hot spell's onset, when temperature as well as frequency of the oppressive AMs are highest. Following this peak is typically DT- to MT-like weather transition, characterized by decrease in temperature and increase in humidity. The transition between upward (DT) and downward (MT) phases is associated with the largest excess CVD mortality, and the change contributes to the increased and more lagged effects on cerebrovascular mortality. The study highlights the importance of critically evaluating SSC's applicability and benefits within warning systems relative to other synoptic and epidemiological approaches. Only a subset of days with the oppressive AMs is associated with excess mortality, and regression models accounting for possible meteorological and other factors explain little of the mortality variance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague 4, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Science, Charles University, Albertov 6, 128 43, Prague 2, Czech Republic.
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague 4, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
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Zhan Z, Zhao Y, Pang S, Zhong X, Wu C, Ding Z. Temperature change between neighboring days and mortality in United States: A nationwide study. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2017; 584-585:1152-1161. [PMID: 28162760 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.177] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2016] [Revised: 01/25/2017] [Accepted: 01/26/2017] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Temperature change between neighboring days (TCN), an indicator to reflect sudden temperature variation, has been identified as an independent risk factor for human health by small-scale studies. However, the adverse impact of TCN on mortality and effect modification are insufficiently studied, and a larger multi-cities analysis at national level is needed to provide an insightful knowledge. METHODS Using daily mortality and meteorological data from 106 communities of United States during 1987 to 2000, we employed a quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model to quantitatively estimate the effect of TCN on mortality for each community and a multivariate meta-analysis to pool the community-specific estimates. RESULTS At national level, a monotonic increasing curve of TCN-mortality association was observed, which indicated that negative TCN (temperature decrease from the previous day) was associated with reduced mortality and positive TCN (temperature increase) elevated the risk of mortality. The relative risk for lag 0-21days was 0.63 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-0.68) for extremely negative TCN (1st percentile) and 1.46 (1.39-1.54) for extremely positive TCN (99th percentile) on non-accidental mortality. We also found prominent effects of extreme TCNs on mortality for cardiovascular, respiratory, pneumonia, and COPD diseases. People ≥75years and those with respiratory disease, especially pneumonia-deaths, were identified as a particularly vulnerable population to TCN. The TCN-mortality association was modified by season and region. CONCLUSIONS A positive TCN was associated with an elevated risk of mortality in United States, with different effect patterns by region and season. Identification of the effect modifiers presented a significantly stronger influence on older adults and those with respiratory disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiying Zhan
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510515, China
| | - Yu Zhao
- Department of Endocrinology, Baoan Central Hospital of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518102, China
| | - Shaojie Pang
- National Institute for Nutrition and Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Xue Zhong
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510515, China
| | - Chong Wu
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510515, China
| | - Zan Ding
- Department of Information, Baoan Central Hospital of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518102, China.
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Onozuka D, Hagihara A. Associations of day-to-day temperature change and diurnal temperature range with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Eur J Prev Cardiol 2016; 24:204-212. [DOI: 10.1177/2047487316674818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Daisuke Onozuka
- Department of Health Communication, Kyushu University Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Japan
| | - Akihito Hagihara
- Department of Health Communication, Kyushu University Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Japan
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Urban A, Burkart K, Kyselý J, Schuster C, Plavcová E, Hanzlíková H, Štěpánek P, Lakes T. Spatial Patterns of Heat-Related Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2016; 13:ijerph13030284. [PMID: 26959044 PMCID: PMC4808947 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph13030284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2015] [Revised: 01/31/2016] [Accepted: 02/23/2016] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Abstract
The study examines spatial patterns of effects of high temperature extremes on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic at a district level during 1994–2009. Daily baseline mortality for each district was determined using a single location-stratified generalized additive model. Mean relative deviations of mortality from the baseline were calculated on days exceeding the 90th percentile of mean daily temperature in summer, and they were correlated with selected demographic, socioeconomic, and physical-environmental variables for the districts. Groups of districts with similar characteristics were identified according to socioeconomic status and urbanization level in order to provide a more general picture than possible on the district level. We evaluated lagged patterns of excess mortality after hot spell occurrences in: (i) urban areas vs. predominantly rural areas; and (ii) regions with different overall socioeconomic level. Our findings suggest that climatic conditions, altitude, and urbanization generally affect the spatial distribution of districts with the highest excess cardiovascular mortality, while socioeconomic status did not show a significant effect in the analysis across the Czech Republic as a whole. Only within deprived populations, socioeconomic status played a relevant role as well. After taking into account lagged effects of temperature on excess mortality, we found that the effect of hot spells was significant in highly urbanized regions, while most excess deaths in rural districts may be attributed to harvesting effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Science, Charles University, Albertov 6, 12843 Prague 2, Czech Republic.
| | - Katrin Burkart
- Department of Environmental Health Science, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 W 168th Street, New York, NY 10032, USA.
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 16521 Prague 6, Czech Republic.
- Global Change Research Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Christian Schuster
- Department of Geography, Geoinformation Science Lab, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany.
| | - Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
| | - Hana Hanzlíková
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
- Institute of Geophysics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
| | - Petr Štěpánek
- Global Change Research Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic.
- Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Regional Office Brno, Kroftova 2578, 61667 Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Tobia Lakes
- Department of Geography, Geoinformation Science Lab, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany.
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Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Forsberg B, Tobias A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Armstrong B, Gasparrini A. Associations of Inter- and Intraday Temperature Change With Mortality. Am J Epidemiol 2016; 183:286-93. [PMID: 26811244 PMCID: PMC4753281 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwv205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2015] [Accepted: 07/30/2015] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
In this study we evaluated the association between temperature variation and mortality and compared it with the contribution due to mean daily temperature in 6 cities with different climates. Quasi-Poisson time series regression models were applied to estimate the associations (relative risk and 95% confidence interval) of mean daily temperature (99th and 1st percentiles, with temperature of minimum mortality as the reference category), interday temperature variation (difference between the mean temperatures of 2 neighboring days) and intraday temperature variation (diurnal temperature range (DTR)) (referred to as median variation) with mortality in 6 cities: London, United Kingdom; Madrid, Spain; Stockholm, Sweden; New York, New York; Miami, Florida; and Houston, Texas (date range, 1985–2010). All cities showed a substantial increase in mortality risk associated with mean daily temperature, with relative risks reaching 1.428 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.329, 1.533) for heat in Madrid and 1.467 (95% CI: 1.385, 1.555) for cold in London. Inconsistent results for inter-/intraday change were obtained, except for some evidence of protective associations on hot and cold days (relative risk (RR) = 0.977 (95% CI: 0.955, 0.999) and RR = 0.981 (95% CI: 0.971, 0.991), respectively) in Madrid and on cold days in Stockholm (RR = 0.989, 95% CI: 0.980, 0.998). Our results indicate that the association between mortality and temperature variation is generally minimal compared with mean daily temperatures, although further research on intraday changes is needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
- Correspondence to Dr. Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, P.O. Box 4002, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland (e-mail: )
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Hanzlíková H, Plavcová E, Kynčl J, Kříž B, Kyselý J. Contrasting patterns of hot spell effects on morbidity and mortality for cardiovascular diseases in the Czech Republic, 1994-2009. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2015; 59:1673-1684. [PMID: 25744153 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-015-0974-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2014] [Revised: 02/11/2015] [Accepted: 02/11/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
The study examines effects of hot spells on cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality in the population of the Czech Republic, with emphasis on differences between ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CD) and between morbidity and mortality. Daily data on CVD morbidity (hospital admissions) and mortality over 1994-2009 were obtained from national hospitalization and mortality registers and standardized to account for long-term changes as well as seasonal and weekly cycles. Hot spells were defined as periods of at least two consecutive days with average daily air temperature anomalies above the 95% quantile during June to August. Relative deviations of mortality and morbidity from the baseline were evaluated. Hot spells were associated with excess mortality for all examined cardiovascular causes (CVD, IHD and CD). The increases were more pronounced for CD than IHD mortality in most population groups, mainly in males. In the younger population (0-64 years), however, significant excess mortality was observed for IHD while there was no excess mortality for CD. A short-term displacement effect was found to be much larger for mortality due to CD than IHD. Excess CVD mortality was not accompanied by increases in hospital admissions and below-expected-levels of morbidity prevailed during hot spells, particularly for IHD in the elderly. This suggests that out-of-hospital deaths represent a major part of excess CVD mortality during heat and that for in-hospital excess deaths CVD is a masked comorbid condition rather than the primary diagnosis responsible for hospitalization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hana Hanzlíková
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic.
- Institute of Geophysics, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jan Kynčl
- Centre for Epidemiology and Microbiology, National Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czech Republic
- Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Bohumír Kříž
- Centre for Epidemiology and Microbiology, National Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czech Republic
- Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
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Takeuchi N, Ekuni D, Tomofuji T, Morita M. Relationship between Acute Phase of Chronic Periodontitis and Meteorological Factors in the Maintenance Phase of Periodontal Treatment: A Pilot Study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2015; 12:9119-30. [PMID: 26251916 PMCID: PMC4555268 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120809119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2015] [Revised: 07/27/2015] [Accepted: 07/31/2015] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
The acute phase of chronic periodontitis may occur even in patients during supportive periodontal therapy. However, the details are not fully understood. Since the natural environment, including meteorology affects human health, we hypothesized that weather conditions may affect occurrence of acute phase of chronic periodontitis. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between weather conditions and acute phase of chronic periodontitis in patients under supportive periodontal therapy. Patients who were diagnosed with acute phase of chronic periodontitis under supportive periodontal therapy during 2011–2013 were selected for this study. We performed oral examinations and collected questionnaires and meteorological data. Of 369 patients who experienced acute phase of chronic periodontitis, 153 had acute phase of chronic periodontitis without direct-triggered episodes. When using the autoregressive integrated moving average model of time-series analysis, the independent covariant of maximum hourly range of barometric pressure, maximum hourly range of temperature, and maximum daily wind speed were significantly associated with occurrence of acute phase of chronic periodontitis (p < 0.05), and 3.1% of the variations in these occurrence over the study period were explained by these factors. Meteorological variables may predict occurrence of acute phase of chronic periodontitis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Noriko Takeuchi
- Departments of Preventive Dentistry, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, 2-5-1 Shikata-cho, Kita-ku, Okayama 700-8558, Japan.
| | - Daisuke Ekuni
- Departments of Preventive Dentistry, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, 2-5-1 Shikata-cho, Kita-ku, Okayama 700-8558, Japan.
| | - Takaaki Tomofuji
- Departments of Preventive Dentistry, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, 2-5-1 Shikata-cho, Kita-ku, Okayama 700-8558, Japan.
- Advanced Research Center for Oral and Craniofacial Sciences, Okayama University Dental School, 2-5-1 Shikata-cho, Kita-ku, Okayama 700-8558, Japan.
| | - Manabu Morita
- Departments of Preventive Dentistry, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, 2-5-1 Shikata-cho, Kita-ku, Okayama 700-8558, Japan.
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Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006-2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2015; 12:6842-57. [PMID: 26086706 PMCID: PMC4483734 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120606842] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2015] [Revised: 06/09/2015] [Accepted: 06/11/2015] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The effect of temperature on the risk of mortality has been described in numerous studies of category-specific (e.g., cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific) mortality in temperate and subtropical countries, with consistent findings of U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and mortality in Manila City (Philippines), during 2006–2010 to identify the potential susceptible populations. We collected daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts from the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office and the meteorological variables were collected from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Temperature-mortality relationships were modeled using Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear models, and were used to perform cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific analyses. The minimum mortality temperature was 30 °C, and increased risks of mortality were observed per 1 °C increase among elderly persons (RR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.31–1.80), women (RR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27–1.69), and for respiratory causes of death (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.23–1.88). Seasonal effect modification was found to greatly affect the risks in the lower temperature range. Thus, the temperature-mortality relationship in Manila City exhibited an increased risk of mortality among elderly persons, women, and for respiratory-causes, with inherent effect modification in the season-specific analysis. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of public health policies to reduce the effects of air temperature on mortality, especially for these high-risk groups.
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Mehta AJ, Kloog I, Zanobetti A, Coull BA, Sparrow D, Vokonas P, Schwartz J. Associations between changes in city and address specific temperature and QT interval--the VA Normative Aging Study. PLoS One 2014; 9:e106258. [PMID: 25238150 PMCID: PMC4169528 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0106258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2013] [Accepted: 08/04/2014] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The underlying mechanisms of the association between ambient temperature and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are not well understood, particularly for daily temperature variability. We evaluated if daily mean temperature and standard deviation of temperature was associated with heart rate-corrected QT interval (QTc) duration, a marker of ventricular repolarization in a prospective cohort of older men. METHODS This longitudinal analysis included 487 older men participating in the VA Normative Aging Study with up to three visits between 2000-2008 (n = 743). We analyzed associations between QTc and moving averages (1-7, 14, 21, and 28 days) of the 24-hour mean and standard deviation of temperature as measured from a local weather monitor, and the 24-hour mean temperature estimated from a spatiotemporal prediction model, in time-varying linear mixed-effect regression. Effect modification by season, diabetes, coronary heart disease, obesity, and age was also evaluated. RESULTS Higher mean temperature as measured from the local monitor, and estimated from the prediction model, was associated with longer QTc at moving averages of 21 and 28 days. Increased 24-hr standard deviation of temperature was associated with longer QTc at moving averages from 4 and up to 28 days; a 1.9°C interquartile range increase in 4-day moving average standard deviation of temperature was associated with a 2.8 msec (95%CI: 0.4, 5.2) longer QTc. Associations between 24-hr standard deviation of temperature and QTc were stronger in colder months, and in participants with diabetes and coronary heart disease. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE In this sample of older men, elevated mean temperature was associated with longer QTc, and increased variability of temperature was associated with longer QTc, particularly during colder months and among individuals with diabetes and coronary heart disease. These findings may offer insight of an important underlying mechanism of temperature-related cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in an older population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amar J. Mehta
- Exposure, Epidemiology and Risk Program, Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Itai Kloog
- Exposure, Epidemiology and Risk Program, Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- The Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Exposure, Epidemiology and Risk Program, Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Brent A. Coull
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - David Sparrow
- The VA Normative Aging Study, Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- The Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Pantel Vokonas
- The VA Normative Aging Study, Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Exposure, Epidemiology and Risk Program, Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- The Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Plavcová E, Kyselý J. Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague, 1994-2009. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2014; 58:1327-1337. [PMID: 24057084 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-013-0735-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2013] [Revised: 09/02/2013] [Accepted: 09/03/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Sudden weather changes have long been thought to be associated with negative impacts on human health, but relatively few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships. We use large 6-h changes in atmospheric pressure as a proxy for sudden weather changes and evaluate their association with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Winter and summer seasons and positive and negative pressure changes are analysed separately, using data for the city of Prague (population 1.2 million) over a 16-year period (1994-2009). We found that sudden pressure drops in winter are associated with significant rise in hospital admissions. Increased CVD morbidity was observed neither for pressure drops in summer nor pressure increases in any season. Analysis of synoptic weather maps shows that large pressure drops in winter are associated with strong zonal flow and rapidly moving low-pressure systems with centres over northern Europe and atmospheric fronts affecting western and central Europe. Analysis of links between passages of strong atmospheric fronts and hospital admissions, however, shows that the links disappear if weather changes are characterised by frontal passages. Sudden pressure drops in winter are associated also with significant excess CVD mortality. As climate models project strengthening of zonal circulation in winter and increased frequency of windstorms, the negative effects of such weather phenomena and their possible changes in a warmer climate of the twenty-first century need to be better understood, particularly as their importance in inducing excess morbidity and mortality in winter may increase compared to cold spells.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague 4, Prague, Czech Republic,
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Allen MJ, Sheridan SC. High-mortality days during the winter season: comparing meteorological conditions across 5 US cities. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2014; 58:217-225. [PMID: 23417344 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-013-0640-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2012] [Revised: 01/27/2013] [Accepted: 01/31/2013] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
While the relationship between weather and human health has been studied from various perspectives, this study examines an alternative method of analysis by examining weather conditions on specific high-mortality days during the winter season. These high-mortality days, by definition, represent days with dramatic increases in mortality and the days with the highest mortality. By focusing solely on high-mortality days, this research examines the relationship between weather variables and mortality through a synoptic climatology, environment-to circulation approach. The atmospheric conditions during high-mortality days were compared to the days prior and the days not classified as high-mortality days. Similar patterns emerged across all five locations despite the spatial and temporal variability. Southern locations had a stronger relationship with temperature changes while northern locations showed a greater relationship to atmospheric pressure. Overall, all high-mortality days were associated with warmer temperatures, decreased pressure, and a greater likelihood of precipitation when compared to the previous subset of days. While the atmospheric conditions were consistent across all locations, the importance of the lag effect should not be overlooked as a contributing factor to mortality during the winter season. Through a variety of diverse, methodological approaches, future studies may build upon these results and explore in more detail the complex relationship between weather situations and the impact of short-term changes in weather and health outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael J Allen
- Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH, 44242, USA,
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Ha J, Kim H. Changes in the association between summer temperature and mortality in Seoul, South Korea. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2013; 57:535-44. [PMID: 22872184 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-012-0580-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2012] [Revised: 07/11/2012] [Accepted: 07/12/2012] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
The health impact of climate change depends on various conditions at any given time and place, as well as on the person. Temporal variations in the relationship between high temperature and mortality need to be explored in depth to explain how changes in the level of exposure and public health interventions modify the temperature-mortality relationship. We examined changes in the relationship between human mortality and temperature in Seoul, which has the highest population in South Korea, considering the change in population structure from 1993-2009. Poisson regression models were used to estimate short-term temperature-related mortality impacts. Temperature-related risks were divided into two "time periods" of approximately equal length (1993 and 1995-2000, and 2001-2009), and were also examined according to early summer and late summer. Temperature-related mortality in summer over the past 17 years has declined. These decreasing patterns were stronger for cardiovascular disease-related mortality than for all non-accidental deaths. The novel finding is that declines in temperature-related mortality were particularly noteworthy in late summer. Our results indicate that temperature-related mortality is decreasing in Seoul, particularly during late summer and, to a lesser extent, during early summer. This information would be useful for detailed public health preparedness for hot weather.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jongsik Ha
- Korea Environment Institute, 290 Jinheungno, Eunpyeong-gu, Soeul, 122-706, South Korea
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Lin H, Zhang Y, Xu Y, Xu X, Liu T, Luo Y, Xiao J, Wu W, Ma W. Temperature changes between neighboring days and mortality in summer: a distributed lag non-linear time series analysis. PLoS One 2013; 8:e66403. [PMID: 23826095 PMCID: PMC3691212 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0066403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2012] [Accepted: 05/06/2013] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many studies have shown that high temperatures or heat waves were associated with mortality and morbidity. However, few studies have examined whether temperature changes between neighboring days have any significant impact on human health. METHOD A distributed lag non-linear model was employed to investigate the effect of temperature changes on mortality in summer during 2006-2010 in two subtropical Chinese cities. The temperature change was defined as the difference of the current day's and the previous day's mean temperature. RESULTS We found non-linear effects of temperature changes between neighboring days in summer on mortality in both cities. Temperature increase was associated with increased mortality from non-accidental diseases and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality in both cities. Significant association between temperature changes and respiratory mortality was only found in Guangzhou. CONCLUSION This study suggests that temperature changes between neighboring days might be an alternative temperature indicator for studying temperature-mortality relationship.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hualiang Lin
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, China
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yonghui Zhang
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yanjun Xu
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiaojun Xu
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
| | - Tao Liu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, China
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yuan Luo
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, China
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jianpeng Xiao
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, China
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wei Wu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, China
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, China
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
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Kloss-Brandstätter A, Hächl O, Leitgeb PC, Buchner A, Coassin S, Rasse M, Kronenberg F, Kloss FR. Epidemiologic evidence of barometric pressure changes inducing increased reporting of oral pain. Eur J Pain 2011; 15:880-4. [PMID: 21334931 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpain.2011.01.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2010] [Revised: 12/21/2010] [Accepted: 01/24/2011] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE The daily patient flow at dental emergency departments is subject to fluctuations. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether meteorological parameters were associated with the number of patients reporting acute pain in the oral cavity. METHODS We performed a retrospective review of all patients presenting with acute oro-dental pain (n=1090) at the dental outpatient clinic in Innsbruck, Austria from January to March 2005. In addition, local weather data were supplied by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Austria. After exponential smoothing of both series of observations, linear regression on the number of patients was performed. RESULTS Statistical analysis revealed that the acute pain symptoms are not related to the air pressure itself but to the deviation of air pressure. The stronger the daily deviation from the average atmospheric pressure was, the more patients presented with acute pain at the dental emergency department (p=4.2 × 10(-14)). Our findings implicate that the association of air pressure deviation with variation in patient flow at dental clinics is a consequence of barometric pressure-related oral pain. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that changes in barometric pressure were the reason for the observed initiation and/or exacerbation of the various oral pains observed in the emergency room setting. This association has been considered to be rare, with most reports suggesting this phenomenon primarily affects divers and aircraft personnel. Our data suggests otherwise, by providing clear evidence that atmospheric pressure changes commonly influences painful oral conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anita Kloss-Brandstätter
- Division of Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Medical Genetics, Molecular and Clinical Pharmacology, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck, Austria.
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Guo Y, Barnett AG, Yu W, Pan X, Ye X, Huang C, Tong S. A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality. PLoS One 2011; 6:e16511. [PMID: 21311772 PMCID: PMC3032790 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0016511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2010] [Accepted: 01/04/2011] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. METHOD Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987-2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. RESULTS In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65-74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥ 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. CONCLUSION A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Adrian G. Barnett
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Weiwei Yu
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Xiaochuan Pan
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaofang Ye
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Cunrui Huang
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
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