Spatio-temporal dynamic climate model for Neoleucinodes elegantalis using CLIMEX

Forecasting Brassica napus production under climate change with a mechanistic species distribution model

Brassica napus, a versatile crop with significant socioeconomic importance, serves as a valuable source of nutrition for humans and animals while also being utilized in biodiesel production. The expansion potential of B. napus is profoundly influenced by climatic variations, yet there remains a scarcity of studies investigating the correlation between climatic factors and its distribution. This research employs CLIMEX to identify the current and future ecological niches of B. napus under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, utilizing the Access 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 models for the time frame of 2040-2059. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of parameters was conducted to determine the primary climatic factors affecting B. napus distribution and model responsiveness. The simulated outcomes demonstrate a satisfactory alignment with the known current distribution of B. napus, with 98% of occurrence records classified as having medium to high climatic suitability. However, the species displays high sensitivity to thermal parameters, thereby suggesting that temperature increases could trigger shifts in suitable and unsuitable areas for B. napus, impacting regions such as Canada, China, Brazil, and the United States.

Climate suitability modeling for Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae): current and future invasion risk analysis

The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a pest of significant economic importance in Central America and Florida (USA). This study was carried out to examine the influence of climate change on the space-time distribution of A. suspensa on temporal and spatial scales. The CLIMEX software was used to model the current distribution and for climate change. The future distribution was performed using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under the emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B for the years 2050, 2080, and 2100. The results indicate a low potential for global distribution of A. suspensa in all scenarios studied. However, tropical areas were identified with high climatic suitability for A. suspensa in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania until the end of the century. Projections of areas with climatic suitability for A. suspensa can provide helpful information to develop preventive strategies of phytosanitary management avoiding economic impacts with the introduction of the species.

Potential Distribution of and Sensitivity Analysis for Urochloa panicoides Weed Using Modeling: An Implication of Invasion Risk Analysis for China and Europe

Urochloapanicoides P. Beauv. is considered one of the most harmful weeds in the United States and Australia. It is invasive in Pakistan, Mexico, and Brazil, but its occurrence is hardly reported in China and European countries. Species distribution models enable the measurement of the impact of climate change on plant growth, allowing for risk analysis, effective management, and invasion prevention. The objective of this study was to develop current and future climate models of suitable locations for U. panicoides and to determine the most influential climatic parameters. Occurrence data and biological information on U. panicoides were collected, and climatic parameters were used to generate the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) and to perform sensitivity analysis. The future projections for 2050, 2080, and 2100 were modeled under the A2 SRES scenario using the Global Climate Model, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS). The potential distribution of U. panicoides coincided with the data collected, and the reliability of the final model was demonstrated. The generated model identified regions where the occurrence was favorable, despite few records of the species. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most sensitive parameters of the model were related to temperature, humidity, and cold stress. Future projections predict reductions in climate suitability for U. panicoides in Brazil, Australia, India, and Africa, and an increase in suitability in Mexico, the United States, European countries, and China. The rise in suitability of China and Europe is attributed to predicted climate change, including reduction in cold stress. From the results obtained, preventive management strategies can be formulated against the spread of U. panicoides, avoiding economic and biodiversity losses.

The seasonal dynamic of Tuta absoluta in Solanum lycopersicon cultivation: Contributions of climate, plant phenology, and insecticide spraying

BACKGROUND

A variety of abiotic and biotic factors promoting seasonal variation in the population of insect pests. Knowledge of the timing and magnitude of these factors is important for the study of population dynamics and the development of efficient pest management programs. Currently, there are few studies regarding Tuta absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) seasonal dynamics in tomato cultivation under open field conditions, either with or without insecticide application. This study aimed to investigate the effects of tomato phenology, climatic factors, and insecticide spraying on the seasonal dynamics of T. absoluta in tomato cultivation under open field conditions, using data from monitoring performed for 3 years.

RESULTS

Insecticide, host plant, and climatic conditions can affect T. absoluta life cycles directly over time, resulting in shifts of peaks of the pest. Insecticides for T. absoluta control reduced injury caused by larvae; however, this was not enough to reduce the density below economic injury levels (EIL) during periods of climatic conditions more suitable for population growth. Tuta absoluta densities surpassed EIL more frequently during the tomato plant fruiting stage. The highest densities of mines and damaged fruits occurred during periods of August to January and September to January in crops without and with the application of insecticides, respectively. Regarding the climatic factors, the highest densities of T. absoluta occurred during periods of increasing air temperature and low rainfall.

CONCLUSION

This study provides relevant insights into the factors that regulate the dynamics of T. absoluta in tomato cultivation and the decision-making process of control of this pest. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate-based seasonal dynamics of the invasive red palm mite Raoiella indica

BACKGROUND

Raoiella indica Hirst (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) is the most critical coconut and banana pest recently introduced in Brazil. Once the mite pests are introduced, it is essential to understand their dynamics in important crops under open-field climatic conditions to implement strategies for their management and determine the periods when species populations may increase in the field. Modelling tools have been used to determine the potential distribution of species and implications for the management of invasive species. Thus, our aim in this study was to determine the seasonal variation in R. indica and the influence of the monthly climate using CLIMEX modelling. We adjusted the CLIMEX model for R. indica based on distribution data, additional biological characteristics, and fluctuations in the R. indica population in a commercial coconut plantation.

RESULTS

The model for the current climate shows a good match between the ecoclimatic index and the global distribution of R. indica. The model results demonstrate that most states of Brazil and several regions worldwide include areas with highly suitable climatic conditions for R. indica. We observed variations in the density of R. indica in commercial coconut crops, with the highest incidence occurring during the first months of the year.

CONCLUSION

Our results showed different alterations in seasonal suitability for R. indica that may provide information for the implementation of methods for time management, such as strategies for sampling and control during periods with a high degree of suitability for R. indica. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.

Conventional Sampling Plan for Scouting Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) Eggs on Tomato Fruits

The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée), is an important pest of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) in South and Central America. This pest is a potential threat for many tomato-producing areas and was listed in 2014 as an A1 quarantine pest by the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization. Soon after hatching, the neonate N. elegantalis larvae penetrate the fruits where they feed until pupation. Therefore, effective N. elegantalis management relies on the timely scouting of egg densities to allow decision-making prior to penetration of neonates into fruits. This study aimed to develop a conventional sampling plan for scouting N. elegantalis eggs on tomato plants. The most representative and precise sampling unit was the most basal fruit cluster for plants bearing up to three clusters (S1 plants). For plants with more than three fruit clusters (S2 plants), the most representative and precise sampling unit was the combination of the second and third fruit clusters. Among the four variables evaluated (eggs/fruit, egg masses/fruit, percentage fruit with eggs, and percentage clusters with eggs), the percentage of clusters with eggs was the most economical for N. elegantalis sampling based on the number of samples and cost required. For this variable, the number of samples determined at the 25% error level was 42 and 36 samples for S1 and S2 plants, respectively. The sampling plan developed for scouting N. elegantalis is fast, reflects pest infestation in tomato fields, and costs less than US$1.50 per field scouted.

Life table parameters of the red palm mite Raoiella indica (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) at various temperatures and for sexual and asexual reproduction

The red palm mite, Raoiella indica Hirst, is a threat to coconut, banana and native Arecaceae and Heliconiaceae in Brazil. This mite originated in the Eastern Hemisphere and was first reported in 2004 in the Americas, where the pest is spreading quickly and causing severe damage to its host plants. The objective of this work was to determine the life-history parameters of R. indica at constant temperatures, estimate its thermal requirements [threshold temperature (Tb) and thermal constant (K)] and also compare its life table parameters between sexual reproduction and parthenogenesis. The life tables were constructed on leaflets of Adonidia merrillii at 15, 20, 24, 27, 30 and 34 °C and 65% RH and a 12-h photoperiod. The longevity and the number of laid eggs of non-copulated adult females were evaluated at 27 °C. Raoiella indica had complete development, from egg to adult, only at 20, 24, 27 and 30 °C. At 15 °C, the eggs did not hatch, and at 34 °C, the mites survived only until the larval stage. For sexual reproduction, the optimal temperature was 27 °C, under which the reproductive parameters were higher. The reproductive parameters for sexual reproduction were higher than those for parthenogenesis. The Tb was 14.79 °C, and the thermal constant was 208.33 degree days. The life parameters estimated in this study can be used for modelling and predicting the population growth of R. indica in the field and consequently for improving their management strategies.

Climate model for seasonal variation in Bemisia tabaci using CLIMEX in tomato crops

The whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, is considered one of the most important pests for tomato Solanum lycopersicum. The population density of this pest varies throughout the year in response to seasonal variation. Studies of seasonality are important to understand the ecological dynamics and insect population in crops and help to identify which seasons have the best climatic conditions for the growth and development of this insect species. In this research, we used CLIMEX to estimate the seasonal abundance of a species in relation to climate over time and species geographical distribution. Therefore, this research is designed to infer the mechanisms affecting population processes, rather than simply provide an empirical description of field observations based on matching patterns of meteorological data. In this research, we identified monthly suitability for Bemisia tabaci, with the climate models, for 12 commercial tomato crop locations through CLIMEX (version 4.0). We observed that B. tabaci displays seasonality with increased abundance in tomato crops during March, April, May, June, October and November (first year) and during March, April, May, September and October (second year) in all monitored areas. During this period, our model demonstrated a strong agreement between B. tabaci density and CLIMEX weekly growth index (GIw), which indicates significant reliability of our model results. Our results may be useful to design sampling and control strategies, in periods and locations when there is high suitability for B. tabaci.

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according to the prediction for 2055, for Ae. albopictus expansion.

Climate Modelling Shows Increased Risk to Eucalyptus sideroxylon on the Eastern Coast of Australia Compared to Eucalyptus albens

Aim: To identify the extent and direction of range shift of Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens in Australia by 2050 through an ensemble forecast of four species distribution models (SDMs). Each was generated using four global climate models (GCMs), under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Location: Australia. Methods: We used four SDMs of (i) generalized linear model, (ii) MaxEnt, (iii) random forest, and (iv) boosted regression tree to construct SDMs for species E. sideroxylon and E. albens under four GCMs including (a) MRI-CGCM3, (b) MIROC5, (c) HadGEM2-AO and (d) CCSM4, under two RCPs of 4.5 and 6.0. Here, the true skill statistic (TSS) index was used to assess the accuracy of each SDM. Results: Results showed that E. albens and E. sideroxylon will lose large areas of their current suitable range by 2050 and E. sideroxylon is projected to gain in eastern and southeastern Australia. Some areas were also projected to remain suitable for each species between now and 2050. Our modelling showed that E. sideroxylon will lose suitable habitat on the western side and will not gain any on the eastern side because this region is one the most heavily populated areas in the country, and the populated areas are moving westward. The predicted decrease in E. sideroxylon's distribution suggests that land managers should monitor its population closely, and evaluate whether it meets criteria for a protected legal status. Main conclusions: Both Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens will be negatively affected by climate change and it is projected that E. sideroxylon will be at greater risk of losing habitat than E. albens.