Weather patterns and all-cause mortality in England, UK

Projection of extreme heat- and cold-related mortality in Sweden based on the spatial synoptic classification

BACKGROUND

Climate change is projected to result in increased heat events and decreased cold events. This will substantially impact human health, particularly when compounded with demographic change. This study employed the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) to categorize daily weather into one of seven types. Here we estimated future mortality due to extremely hot and cold weather types under different climate change scenarios for one southern (Stockholm) and one northern (Jämtland) Swedish region.

METHODS

Time-series Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between extremely hot and cold weather events and daily deaths in the population above 65 years, with cumulative effects (6 days in summer, 28 days in winter), 1991 to 2014. A global climate model (MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to project the occurrence of hot and cold days from 2031 to 2070. Place-specific projected mortality was calculated to derive attributable numbers and attributable fractions (AF) of heat- and cold-related deaths.

RESULTS

In Stockholm, for the RCP 4.5 scenario, the mean number of annual deaths attributed to heat increased from 48.7 (CI 32.2-64.2; AF = 0.68%) in 2031-2040 to 90.2 (56.7-120.5; AF = 0.97%) in 2061-2070, respectively. For RCP 8.5, heat-related deaths increased more drastically from 52.1 (33.6-69.7; AF = 0.72%) to 126.4 (68.7-175.8; AF = 1.36%) between the first and the last decade. Cold-related deaths slightly increased over the projected period in both scenarios. In Jämtland, projections showed a small decrease in cold-related deaths but no change in heat-related mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In rural northern region of Sweden, a decrease of cold-related deaths represents the dominant trend. In urban southern locations, on the other hand, an increase of heat-related mortality is to be expected. With an increasing elderly population, heat-related mortality will outweigh cold-related mortality at least under the RCP 8.5 scenario, requiring societal adaptation measures.

Analysis of severe ozone-related human health and weather influence over China in 2019 based on a high-resolution dataset

Ozone pollution in 2019 in China is particularly severe posing a tremendous threat to the health of Chinese inhabitants. In this study, we constructed a more reliable and accurate 1-km gridded dataset for 2019 with as many sites as possible using the inverse distance weight interpolation method to analyze spatiotemporal ozone pollution characteristics and health burden attributed to ozone exposure from the perspective of different diseases and weather influence. The accuracy of this new dataset is higher than other public datasets, with the coefficient of determination of 0.84 and root-mean-square error of 8.77 ppb through the validation of 300 external sites which were never used for establishing retrieval methods by the datasets mentioned-above. The averaged MDA8 (the daily maximum 8 h average) ozone concentrations over China was 43.5 ppb, and during April-July, 83.9% of total grids occurred peak-month ozone concentrations. Overall, the highest averaged exceedance days (60 days) and population-weighted ozone concentrations (55.0 ppb) both concentrated in central-eastern China including 9 provinces (only 11.4% of the national territory); meanwhile, all-cause premature deaths attributable to ozone exposure reached up to 142,000 (54.9% of national total deaths) with higher deaths for cardiovascular and respiratory, and the provincial per capita premature mortality was 0.27~0.44‰. The six most polluted weather types in the central-eastern China are in order as follows: westerly (SW and W), cyclonic, northerly, and southerly (NW, N, and S) types, which accounts for approximately 73.2% of health burden attributed to daily ozone exposure and poses the greatest public health risk with mean daily premature deaths ranging from 466 to 610. Our findings could provide an effective support for regional ozone pollution control and public health management in China.

The effects of summer ambient temperature on total mortality in Serbia

In the context of recent climate change, temperature-attributable mortality has become an important public health threat worldwide. A large number of studies in Europe have identified a relationship between temperature and mortality, while only a limited number of scholars provided evidence for Serbia. In order to provide more evidence for better management of health resources at the regional and local level, this study aims to assess the impact of summer temperature on the population in Serbia, using daily average temperature (Ta) and mortality (CDR (crude death rate) per 100,000). The analysis was done for five areas (Belgrade, Novi Sad, Niš, Loznica, and Vranje), covering the summer (June-August) period of 2001-2015. In order to quantify the Ta-related CDR, a generalized additive model (GAM) assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution with log as the link function was used. Five regression models were constructed, for each area, revealing a statistically significant positive relationship between Ta and CDR in four areas. The effect of Ta on CDR was defined as the relative risk (RR), which was obtained as the exponential regression coefficient of the models. RR indicates that a 1 °C increase in Ta at lag0 was associated with an increase in CDR of 1.7% for Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš and 2% for Loznica. The model for Vranje did not quantify a statistically significant increase in CDR due to Ta (RR=1.006, 95% CI 0.991-1.020). Similar results were confirmed for gender, with a slightly higher risk for women. Analysis across lag structure showed different exposure, but the highest effect of Ta mainly occurs over the short term and persists for 3 days.

Extreme climate index estimation and projection in association with enviro-meteorological parameters using random forest-ARIMA hybrid model over the Vidarbha region, India

This study aims to estimate and analyse extreme climate indices such as standardised precipitation index (SPI) coupled with enviro-met (air pollutants and meteorological) parameters over the Vidarbha region from 1980 to 2019. Seasonal SPI, also known as the draught index, is derived from rainfall data using the R language. An attempt is made to determine the best combination of enviro-met on SPI using the random forest (RF) models. The study region is divided into four zones to assess the microclimatic impact on the forecast model. Three sets of data combinations, viz., meteorological and air pollution parameters, are applied for SPI prediction using RF. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is also used for a future scenario projection. It is observed from the projection results that the drought severity is enhancing with time. The drought severity scale from 1980 to 1989 is found to be between - 1 and 1, but the scale increases from 1990 to 2019 (- 3). From 1990 to 2019, SPI's negative (-) scale has become more prominent in all Vidarbha regions. These trends are indicative of drought severity and will have a significant impact on both life and property.

The influence of weather types over northern Greece on respiratory and cardio-vascular mortality

Extreme ambient temperatures are well-known for their adverse impact on public health, in the form of increased mortality and morbidity due to respiratory and cardio-vascular diseases. However, to capture the total impact of weather on cause-specific mortality/morbidity, the synoptic atmospheric conditions over the region under study need to be taken into account. The objective of this work is to identify weather types over Thessaloniki, Greece, statistically associated with mortality from circulatory and respiratory diseases, in an attempt to holistically determine the impact of weather on cause-specific mortality in the region. For this purpose, we employed datasets from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis comprising intrinsic daily data, gridded at a resolution of 2.5°×2.5° and covering a 41-year period (1980-2020). The first set used contains data of 500 hPa and 1,000 hPa geopotential heights for the main geographical domain of the Mediterranean region (30°N-45°N, 10°Ε-35°E). The second set comprises meteorological variables (2 m temperature, specific humidity, 2 m zonal and 2 m meridional wind and total cloud cover) for a geographical domain of north Greece (40.95°Ν, 22.50°Ε-26.25°E). We applied a combination of principal components analysis (PCA) as a dimensionality reduction tool and k-means cluster analysis (CA) in order to group days with homogeneous synoptic meteorological parameters. The derived weather types were statistically correlated with respiratory and mortality data for the time-period 1999-2018. It was concluded that the most fatal conditions for public health in Thessaloniki were associated with weather types bringing low/extremely low ambient temperature over north Greece.

Analysis of the heat- and cold-related cardiovascular mortality in an urban mediterranean environment through various thermal indices

During the last decades the effects of thermal stress on public health have been a great concern worldwide. Thermal stress is determined by air temperature in combination with other meteorological parameters, such as relative humidity and wind speed. The present study is focused on the Mediterranean city of Thessaloniki, Greece and it aims to explore the association between thermal stress and mortality from cardiovascular diseases, using both air temperature and other thermal indices as indicators. For that, an over-dispersed Poisson regression function was used, in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, in order to capture the delayed and nonlinear effects of temperature. Our results revealed a reverse J-shaped exposure-response curve for the total population and females and a U-shaped association for males. In all cases examined, the minimum mortality temperature was identified around the 80th percentile of each distribution. It is noteworthy that despite the fact that the highest risks of cardiovascular mortality were estimated for exposure to extreme temperatures, moderate temperatures were found to cause the highest burden of mortality. On the whole, our estimations demonstrated that the population in Thessaloniki is more susceptible to cold effects and in regard with gender, females seem to be more vulnerable to ambient thermal conditions.

The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Cardiorespiratory Mortality in Northern Greece

It is well-established that exposure to non-optimum temperatures adversely affects public health, with the negative impact varying with latitude, as well as various climatic and population characteristics. This work aims to assess the relationship between ambient temperature and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, in Northern Greece. For this, a standard time-series over-dispersed Poisson regression was fit, along with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), using a maximum lag of 21 days, to capture the non-linear and delayed temperature-related effects. A U-shaped relationship was found between temperature and cardiorespiratory mortality for the overall population and various subgroups and the minimum mortality temperature was observed around the 65th percentile of the temperature distribution. Exposure to extremely high temperatures was found to put the highest risk of cardiorespiratory mortality in all cases, except for females which were found to be more sensitive to extreme cold. It is remarkable that the highest burden of temperature-related mortality was attributed to moderate temperatures and primarily to moderate cold. The elderly were found to be particularly susceptible to both cold and hot thermal stress. These results provide new evidence on the health response of the population to low and high temperatures and could be useful to local authorities and policy-makers for developing interventions and prevention strategies for reducing the adverse impact of ambient temperature.

Changes in Weather-Related Fatalities in the Czech Republic during the 1961–2020 Period

Fatalities associated with severe weather, collected from newspapers and other documentary sources, were used to create a corresponding database for the 1961–2020 period for the Czech Republic. Fatalities attributed to floods, windstorms, convective storms, snow and glaze ice, frost, fog, and other severe weather, on the one hand, and vehicle accident fatalities connected with rain, snow, glaze ice, fog, and inclement weather, on the other, were analysed separately for two standard periods, 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. The number of weather-related fatalities between these two periods increased in the flood, windstorm, and especially frost categories, and decreased for the convective storm and fog categories. For snow and glaze ice they were the same. Despite significant differences in both 30-year periods, the highest proportions of fatalities corresponded to the winter months, and in individual fatality characteristics to males, adults, direct deaths, deaths by freezing or hypothermia, and to hazardous behaviour. A statistically significant (p < 0.05) Spearman rank correlation between fatalities and climate variables was only found in the 1991–2020 period for snow/glaze ice-related fatalities, with the number of days with snow cover depth and frost-related fatalities having days with daily minimum temperatures below −5 °C or −10 °C. Despite the highest proportions of the rain and wet road categories being in the number of vehicle accident fatalities, a statistically significant correlation was only found for the category of snow-related fatalities in the number of days with snowfall. The results and conclusions of this study have to be evaluated in the broader context of climatological, political, economic, and societal changes within the country, and have the potential to be used in risk management.

Cardiovascular Aging and Longevity: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

Cardiovascular aging and longevity are interrelated through many pathophysiological mechanisms. Many factors that promote atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease are also implicated in the aging process and vice versa. Indeed, cardiometabolic disorders such as hyperglycemia, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, and arterial hypertension share common pathophysiological mechanisms with aging and longevity. Moreover, genetic modulators of longevity have a significant impact on cardiovascular aging. The current knowledge of genetic, molecular, and biochemical pathways of aging may serve as a substrate to introduce interventions that might delay cardiovascular aging, thus approaching the goal of longevity. In the present review, the authors describe pathophysiological links between cardiovascular aging and longevity and translate these mechanisms into clinical data by reporting genetic, dietary, and environmental characteristics from long-living populations.

Spatiotemporal nexus between vegetation change and extreme climatic indices and their possible causes of change

Climate extremes have a significant impact on vegetation. However, little is known about vegetation response to climatic extremes in Bangladesh. The association of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with nine extreme precipitation and temperature indices was evaluated to identify the nexus between vegetation and climatic extremes and their associations in Bangladesh for the period 1986-2017. Moreover, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and Morlet wavelet analysis (MWA) were employed to evaluate the possible future trends and decipher the existing periodic cycles, respectively in the time series of NDVI and climate extremes. Besides, atmospheric variables of ECMWF ERA5 were used to examine the casual circulation mechanism responsible for climatic extremes of Bangladesh. The results revealed that the monthly NDVI is positively associated with extreme rainfall with spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Warm temperature indices showed a significant negative association with NDVI on the seasonal scale, while precipitation and cold temperature extremes showed a positive association with yearly NDVI. The DEA revealed a continuous increase in temperature extreme in the future, while no change in precipitation extremes. NDVI also revealed a significant association with extreme temperature indices with a time lag of one month and with precipitation extreme without time lag. Spatial analysis indicated insensitivity of marshy vegetation type to climate extremes in winter. The study revealed that elevated summer geopotential height, no visible anticyclonic center, reduced high cloud cover, and low solar radiation with higher humidity contributed to climatic extremes in Bangladesh. The nexus between NDVI and climatic extremes established in this study indicated that increasing warm temperature extremes due to global warming might have severe implications on Bangladesh's ecology and the environment in the future.

Higher Temperatures, Higher Solar Radiation, and Less Humidity Is Associated With Poor Clinical and Laboratory Outcomes in COVID-19 Patients

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic varies between countries, with suggestions that weather might contribute to the transmission mode, disease presentation, severity, and clinical outcomes. Yet the exact link between climate and COVID-19 is still not well-explored. Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of hot geographical region weather [like United Arab Emirates (UAE)] on COVID-19 clinical profile and outcomes. Temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, precipitation, and other weather-related variables were studied concerning COVID-19 patients outcomes and laboratory results. Methodology: A total of 434 COVID-19 positive patients admitted between January and June 2020, were recruited from Al Kuwait Hospital, Dubai, UAE. Temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, and precipitation rate were retrieved from history+ for the day when COVID-19 patients presented to the hospital. These weather parameters were correlated with COVID-19 clinical and laboratory parameters. Results: Our results showed that patients needed admission in days with higher temperatures, higher solar radiation, and less humidity were associated with higher deaths. This association can be linked to the association of these weather parameters with age at diagnosis; higher C-reactive protein (CRP), neutrophil count, white cell count (WCC), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP); and lower lymphocyte count, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), hemoglobin (Hb), Na, and albumin, all of which are considered poor prognostic factors for COVID-19. Conclusion: Our study highlighted the importance of weather-related variables on the dynamics of mortality and clinical outcomes of COVID-19. The hot weather might makes some people, especially those with comorbidities or older ages, develop aggressive inflammation that ends up with complications and mortality.

Intensified impacts on mortality due to compound winter extremes in the Czech Republic

Although impacts of extremely cold temperatures on human health have been widely studied, adverse effects of other extreme weather phenomena have so far received much less attention. We employed a high-quality long-term mortality time series (1982-2017) to evaluate impacts of extreme winter weather in the Czech Republic. We aimed to clarify whether compound events of extreme weather cause larger impacts on mortality than do each type of extreme if evaluated individually. Using daily data from the E-OBS and ERA5 datasets, we analyzed 9 types of extreme events: extreme wind gust, precipitation, snowfall, and sudden temperature and pressure changes. Relative mortality deviations from the adjusted baseline were used to estimate the immediate effect of the selected extreme events on excess mortality. The impact was adjusted for the effect of extreme cold. Extreme events associated with sudden rise of minimum temperature and pressure drops had generally significant impact on excess mortality (3.7% and 1.4% increase). The impacts were even more pronounced if these events occurred simultaneously or were compounded with other types of extremes, such as heavy precipitation, snowfall, maximum temperature rise, and their combinations (increase as great as 14.4%). Effects of some compound events were significant even for combinations of extremes having no significant impact on mortality when evaluated separately. On the other hand, a "protective" effect of pressure increases reduced the risk for its compound events. Meteorological patterns during extreme events linked to excess mortality indicate passage of a low-pressure system northerly from the study domain. We identified extreme winter weather events other than cold temperatures with significant impact on excess mortality. Our results suggest that occurrence of compound extreme events strengthen the impacts on mortality and therefore analysis of multiple meteorological parameters is a useful approach in defining adverse weather conditions.