Systematic review and meta-analysis of histopathological predictive factors for lymph node metastasis in T1 colorectal cancer

Vertical margin distance in T1 colorectal carcinoma resected by endoscopic submucosal dissection affects prognosis after additional surgery

PURPOSE : A vertical margin (VM) distance of < 500 µm is a risk factor for recurrence in patients with T1 colorectal carcinoma (CRC) resected by endoscopy. We aimed to determine the effects of the VM distance on the recurrence and prognosis of T1 CRC.

METHODS

We enrolled 168 patients with T1 CRC who underwent additional surgery after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) at multiple centers between 2008 and 2016. None of the patients were followed up for < 5 years. The enrolled 168 patients were classified into patients with VM distance of < 500 µm including positive VM (n = 72 [43%], VM distance < 500 µm group) and patients with VM distance of ≥ 500 µm (n = 96 [57%], VM distance ≥ 500 µm group). The clinicopathological features, recurrence rates, and prognoses were compared between the groups using propensity-score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

Tumors recurred in eight of the 168 patients (5%) with VM distance < 500 µm. After PSM, the rate of overall recurrence and local recurrence in the VM distance < 500 µm group were significantly higher than those in the VM distance ≥ 500 µm group. The 5-year recurrence-free survival rate was significantly higher in the VM distance ≥ 500 µm group than that in VM distance < 500 µm group after PSM (100% vs. 89%, p < 0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

Complete en bloc resection of T1 CRC via ESD must include a sufficient amount of SM to reduce the risk of metastasis and recurrence after additional surgery.

Refining Risk Criteria May Substantially Reduce Unnecessary Additional Surgeries after Local Resection of T1 Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

The low positive predictive value for lymph node metastases (LNM) of common practice risk criteria (CPRC) in T1 colorectal carcinoma (CRC) leads to manyunnecessary additional surgeries following local resection. This study aimed to identify criteria that may improve on the CPRC.

METHODS

Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the association of diverse variables with LNM or 'poor outcome' (LNM and/or distant metastases and/or recurrence) in a single center T1 CRC cohort. The diagnostic capacity of the set of variables obtained was compared with that of the CPRC.

RESULTS

The study comprised 161 cases. Poorly differentiated clusters (PDC) and tumor budding grade > 1 (TB > 1) were the only independent variables associated with LNM. The area under the curve (AUC) for these criteria was 0.808 (CI 95% 0.717-0.880) compared to 0.582 (CI 95% 0.479-0.680) for CPRC. TB > 1 and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) were independently associated with 'poor outcome', with an AUC of 0.801 (CI 95% 0.731-0.859), while the AUC for CPRC was 0.691 (CI 95% 0.603-0.752). TB > 1, combined either with PDC or LVI, would reduce false positives between 41.5% and 45% without significantly increasing false negatives.

CONCLUSIONS

Indicating additional surgery in T1 CRC only when either TB > 1, PDC, or LVI are present could reduce unnecessary surgeries significantly.

The Risk of Metastatic Recurrence after Non-Curative Endoscopic Resection with Negative Deep Margins for Early Colorectal Cancer: Two-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Non-curative endoscopic resection of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) carries a substantial risk of recurrence. However, previous studies have reported a significant proportion of cases in which the deep margin of endoscopic resection was positive for cancer due to the technical difficulties of colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). With the advancement of endoscopic technology and techniques resulting in the reduction of positive resection margins, it is important to reassess the long-term prognosis and major risk factors for recurrence in cases of negative deep margins.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients with T1 CRC who underwent endoscopic resection between January 2006 and December 2021 with negative deep margins. The histological findings of the resected specimens were analyzed to determine the risk factors associated with the primary outcomes of this study, including recurrence and cancer-related deaths.

RESULTS

The median age of the 190 patients was 70 years, of which 63% were male, and endoscopic treatment was performed in 64% by endoscopic mucosal resection and 36% by ESD. Eighty-two patients were in the curative resection (CR) group and 108 were in the non-curative resection (NCR) group, wherein the latter comprised 79 patients who underwent additional surgery (AS) and 29 patients who did not receive AS. Five-year recurrence-free survival rates were 98.4% (95% CI: 89.3-99.8) for CR, 98.3% (95% CI: 88.8-99.8) for NCR with AS, and 73.7% (95% CI: 46.5-88.5) for NCR without AS. Lymphatic invasion and budding grade 2/3 were the major risk factors for recurrence, with hazard ratios of 40.7 (p < 0.001) and 23.1 (p = 0.007), respectively. Of the patients in the NCR group without AS, the 5-year recurrence-free rate was 85.6% (95% CI: 52.5-96.3) if there were no major risk factors (i.e., no lymphatic invasion or budding grade 2/3) (n = 21), whereas the prognosis was poor in the presence of one or more of the major risk factors, with a median recurrence-free survival and disease-specific survival of 2.5 and 3.1 years, respectively (n = 8).

DISCUSSION

In endoscopically resected T1 CRC with negative deep margins, lymphatic invasion or budding grade 2/3 may indicate a higher risk of recurrence when followed up without AS.

A radiomics and genomics-derived model for predicting metastasis and prognosis in colorectal cancer

Approximately 50% of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients would develop metastasis with poor prognosis, therefore, it is necessary to effectively predict metastasis in clinical treatment. In this study, we aimed to establish a machine-learning model for predicting metastasis in CRC patients by considering radiomics and transcriptomics simultaneously. Here, 1023 patients with CRC from three centers were collected and divided into five queues (Dazhou Central Hospital n = 517, Nanchong Central Hospital n = 120 and the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) n = 386). A total of 854 radiomics features were extracted from tumor lesions on CT images, and 217 differentially expressed genes were obtained from non-metastasis and metastasis tumor tissues using RNA sequencing. Based on radiotranscriptomic (RT) analysis, a novel RT model was developed and verified through genetic algorithms (GA). Interleukin (IL)-26, a biomarker in RT model, was verified for its biological function in CRC metastasis. Furthermore, 15 radiomics variables were screened through stepwise regression, which was highly correlated with the IL26 expression level. Finally, a radiomics model (RA) was established by combining GA and stepwise regression analysis with radiomics features. The RA model exhibited favorable discriminatory ability and accuracy for metastasis prediction in two independent verification cohorts. We designed multicenter, multi-scale cohorts to construct and verify novel combined radiomics and genomics models for predicting metastasis in CRC. Overall, RT model and RA model might help clinicians in directing personalized diagnosis and therapeutic regimen selection for patients with CRC.

A Retrospective Multicenter Study of Risk Factors, Stratification, and Prognosis of Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 and T2 Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to compare the long-term prognosis of patients with T1 and T2 colorectal cancer (CRC) according to lymph node metastasis (LNM) and to identify risk factors for LNM.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed patients who underwent curative resection for T1 or T2 CRC at five University-affiliated hospitals between January 2012 and December 2021. The patients were divided into several groups depending on the presence of LNM or the number of risk factors.

RESULTS

Of the total 765 patients, 87 (11.3%) patients had LNM. These patients had poorer recurrence-free survival (RFS) than patients without LNM (72.6% vs. 88.6%). The multivariable analysis showed that high-grade tumors (p = 0.003), lymphovascular invasion (p < 0.001), and rectal location (p = 0.049) were independent predictors of LNM. When divided into groups according to the number of the three risk factors, the risk of LNM increased from 5.4% (ultralow-risk group; no risk factor) to 60.0% (high-risk group; all three risk factors) and the 5-year RFS rate decreased from 96.3% in the ultralow-risk group to 60% in the high-risk group (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Radical surgery should be considered for T1 and T2 CRC patients with these risk factors.

Risk Factors for Lymph Node Metastasis and Recurrence in T1 Colorectal Cancer: Analysis of 801 Patients in a Single Institute

OBJECTIVE

To identify risk factors for lymph node metastasis and postoperative recurrence of pT1 colorectal cancer by clinicopathological study of surgically resected cases.

METHODS

In 801 patients with pT1 colorectal cancer who underwent surgical resection with lymph node dissection between April 2007 and January 2021, we evaluated clinicopathological factors (age, gender, BMI, serum CEA level, tumor localization, additional resection after endoscopic treatment, operation time, blood loss, histological type, tumor size, vascular invasion, and central lymph node dissection). We performed univariate and multivariate analyses to examine risk factors for lymph node metastasis. We also examined risk factors for recurrence in 583 patients up to December 2017.

RESULTS

Lymph node metastasis was observed in 100/801 patients (12.5%). Multivariate analysis of lymph node metastasis showed that patients with positive lymphatic invasion (odds ratio 2.57, 95% CI 1.62-4.04, P < .0001), positive venous invasion (odds ratio 2.31, 95% CI 1.48-3.61, P = .0002), and histologically poorly differentiated type (odds ratio 4.54, 95% CI 1.35-15.2, P = .014) were identified as risk factors. Postoperative recurrence was observed in 18/580 patients (3.1%). Risk factors for postoperative recurrence were also examined, including preoperative endoscopic treatment (odds ratio 3.59, 95% CI 1.18-10.9, P = .024), positive venous invasion (odds ratio 3.63, 95% CI 1.22-10.8, P = .021), positive lymph node metastasis (odds ratio 4.91, 95% CI 1.10-21.8, P = .037) were extracted as risk factors.

DISCUSSION

In this study, venous invasion, lymphatic invasion, and histologically poorly differentiated type were identified as risk factors for lymph node metastasis in T1 colorectal cancer, and positive venous invasion, positive lymph node metastasis, and preoperative endoscopic treatment were identified as risk factors for recurrence. We hope that large prospective study will lead to the development of a more specific treatment strategy, including endoscopic treatment and additional surgical resection.

Computer-aided diagnosis of early-stage colorectal cancer using nonmagnified endoscopic white-light images (with videos)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Differentiation of colorectal cancers (CRCs) with deep submucosal invasion (T1b) from CRCs with superficial invasion (T1a) or no invasion (Tis) is not straightforward. This study aimed to develop a computer-aided diagnosis (CADx) system to establish the diagnosis of early-stage cancers using nonmagnified endoscopic white-light images alone.

METHODS

From 5108 images, 1513 lesions (Tis, 1074; T1a, 145; T1b, 294) were collected from 1470 patients at 10 academic hospitals and assigned to training and testing datasets (3:1). The ResNet-50 network was used as the backbone to extract features from images. Oversampling and focal loss were used to compensate class imbalance of the invasive stage. Diagnostic performance was assessed using the testing dataset including 403 CRCs with 1392 images. Two experts and 2 trainees read the identical testing dataset.

RESULTS

At a 90% cutoff for the per-lesion score, CADx showed the highest specificity of 94.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 91.3-96.6), with 59.8% (95% CI, 48.3-70.4) sensitivity and 87.3% (95% CI, 83.7-90.4) accuracy. The area under the characteristic curve was 85.1% (95% CI, 79.9-90.4) for CADx, 88.2% (95% CI, 83.7-92.8) for expert 1, 85.9% (95% CI, 80.9-90.9) for expert 2, 77.0% (95% CI, 71.5-82.4) for trainee 1 (vs CADx; P = .0076), and 66.2% (95% CI, 60.6-71.9) for trainee 2 (P < .0001). The function was also confirmed on 9 short videos.

CONCLUSIONS

A CADx system developed with endoscopic white-light images showed excellent per-lesion specificity and accuracy for T1b lesion diagnosis, equivalent to experts and superior to trainees. (Clinical trial registration number: UMIN000037053.).

Limited wedge resection for T1 colon cancer (LIMERIC-II trial) - rationale and study protocol of a prospective multicenter clinical trial

BACKGROUND

The sole presence of deep submucosal invasion is shown to be associated with a limited risk of lymph node metastasis. This justifies a local excision of suspected deep submucosal invasive colon carcinomas (T1 CCs) as a first step treatment strategy. Recently Colonoscopy-Assisted Laparoscopic Wedge Resection (CAL-WR) has been shown to be able to resect pT1 CRCs with a high R0 resection rate, but the long term outcomes are lacking. The aim of this study is to evaluate the safety, effectiveness and long-term oncological outcomes of CAL-WR as primary treatment for patients with suspected superficial and also deeply-invasive T1 CCs.

METHODS

In this prospective multicenter clinical trial, patients with a macroscopic and/or histologically suspected T1 CCs will receive CAL-WR as primary treatment in order to prevent unnecessary major surgery for low-risk T1 CCs. To make a CAL-WR technically feasible, the tumor may not include > 50% of the circumference and has to be localized at least 25 cm proximal from the anus. Also, there should be sufficient distance to the ileocecal valve to place a linear stapler. Before inclusion, all eligible patients will be assessed by an expert panel to confirm suspicion of T1 CC, estimate invasion depth and subsequent advise which local resection techniques are possible for removal of the lesion. The primary outcome of this study is the proportion of patients with pT1 CC that is curatively treated with CAL-WR only and in whom thus organ-preservation could be achieved. Secondary outcomes are 1) CAL-WR's technical success and R0 resection rate for T1 CC, 2) procedure-related morbidity and mortality, 3) 5-year overall and disease free survival, 4) 3-year metastasis free survival, 5) procedure-related costs and 6) impact on quality of life. A sample size of 143 patients was calculated.

DISCUSSION

CAL-WR is a full-thickness local resection technique that could also be effective in removing pT1 colon cancer. With the lack of current endoscopic local resection techniques for > 15 mm pT1 CCs with deep submucosal invasion, CAL-WR could fill the gap between endoscopy and major oncologic surgery. The present study is the first to provide insight in the long-term oncological outcomes of CAL-WR.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

CCMO register (ToetsingOnline), NL81497.075.22, protocol version 2.3 (October 2022).

Curriculum for training in endoscopic mucosal resection in the colon: European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Position Statement

Endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) is the standard of care for the complete removal of large (≥ 10 mm) nonpedunculated colorectal polyps (LNPCPs). Increased detection of LNPCPs owing to screening colonoscopy, plus high observed rates of incomplete resection and need for surgery call for a standardized approach to training in EMR. 1 : Trainees in EMR should have achieved basic competence in diagnostic colonoscopy, < 10-mm polypectomy, pedunculated polypectomy, and common methods of gastrointestinal endoscopic hemostasis. The role of formal training courses is emphasized. Training may then commence in vivo under the direct supervision of a trainer. 2 : Endoscopy units training endoscopists in EMR should have specific processes in place to support and facilitate training. 3: A trained EMR practitioner should have mastered theoretical knowledge including how to assess an LNPCP for risk of submucosal invasion, how to interpret the potential difficulty of a particular EMR procedure, how to decide whether to remove a particular LNPCP en bloc or piecemeal, whether the risks of electrosurgical energy can be avoided for a particular LNPCP, the different devices required for EMR, management of adverse events, and interpretation of reports provided by histopathologists. 4: Trained EMR practitioners should be familiar with the patient consent process for EMR. 5: The development of endoscopic non-technical skills (ENTS) and team interaction are important for trainees in EMR. 6: Differences in recommended technique exist between EMR performed with and without electrosurgical energy. Common to both is a standardized technique based upon dynamic injection, controlled and precise snare placement, safety checks prior to the application of tissue transection (cold snare) or electrosurgical energy (hot snare), and interpretation of the post-EMR resection defect. 7: A trained EMR practitioner must be able to manage adverse events associated with EMR including intraprocedural bleeding and perforation, and post-procedural bleeding. Delayed perforation should be avoided by correct interpretation of the post-EMR defect and treatment of deep mural injury. 8: A trained EMR practitioner must be able to communicate EMR procedural findings to patients and provide them with a plan in case of adverse events after discharge and a follow-up plan. 9: A trained EMR practitioner must be able to detect and interrogate a post-endoscopic resection scar for residual or recurrent adenoma and apply treatment if necessary. 10: Prior to independent practice, a minimum of 30 EMR procedures should be performed, culminating in a trainer-guided assessment of competency using a validated assessment tool, taking account of procedural difficulty (e. g. using the SMSA polyp score). 11: Trained practitioners should log their key performance indicators (KPIs) of polypectomy during independent practice. A guide for target KPIs is provided in this document.

Prognostic Value of Tumor Budding in Urothelial Carcinoma: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review

Recently, tumor budding (TB) has been suggested as a strong prognostic marker in urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UC). The aim of this systematic review is to test the prognostic value of TB in UC by a meta-analysis of previously published studies. We systematically reviewed the literature related to TB by using the databases of Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science. The search was limited to publications in the English language up to July 2022. There were 790 patients from 7 retrospective studies in which TB has been evaluated in UC. Two authors independently extracted the results from eligible studies. The meta-analysis of eligible studies revealed that TB is a significant prognosticator for progression-free survival in UC, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 3.51 (95% CI, 1.86-6.62; P < .001) in univariate analysis and a HR of 2.78 (95% CI, 1.57-4.93; P < .001) in multivariate analysis; a significant prognosticator for overall survival and cancer-specific survival in UC, with a HR of 3.07 (95% CI, 2.04-4.64; P < .001) and a HR of 2.18 (95% CI, 1.11-4.29; P = .02) respectively in univariate analysis. Our findings confirm that UC with a high TB count is at a high risk of progress. TB could be considered as an element in pathology reports and future oncologic staging systems.

Tumor budding and the prognosis of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: a meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Tumor budding has been suggested to be associated with poor survival of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). However, it is unclear whether the association remains in patients with metastatic CRC (mCRC). The aim of the systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate the potential predictive role of tumor budding for the prognosis of patients with mCRC.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were searched for relevant observational studies comparing the survival outcomes between mCRC patients with high versus low tumor budding. Data collection, literature searching, and statistical analysis were conducted independently by two authors. Using a heterogeneity-incorporating random-effects model, the results were pooled.

RESULTS

In this meta-analysis, 1503 patients from nine retrospective cohort studies were included. Pooled results showed that compared to those with low tumor budding, mCRC patients with high tumor budding were associated with a poor progression-free survival (hazard ratio (HR), 1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.31 to 2.07, p < 0.001; I2 = 30%) and overall survival (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.33 to 1.93; p < 0.001; I2 = 0%). Influencing analysis by excluding one study at a time showed consistent results (p all < 0.05). Subgroup analyses showed consistent results in tumor budding evaluated from the primary cancer and metastases, in studies with a high tumor budding defined as ≥ 10 or 15 and ≥ 5 buds/HPF and in studies analyzed with univariate and multivariate regression models (p for subgroup difference all > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

A high-degree tumor budding may be associated with poor prognosis in patients with mCRC.

Colonoscopy-Assisted Laparoscopic Wedge Resection for the Treatment of Suspected T1 Colon Cancer

BACKGROUND

Local en bloc resection of pT1 colon cancer has been gaining acceptance during the last few years. In the absence of histological risk factors, the risk of lymph-node metastases (LNM) is negligible and does not outweigh the morbidity and mortality of an oncologic resection. Colonoscopy-assisted laparoscopic wedge resection (CAL-WR) has proved to be an effective and safe technique for removing complex benign polyps. The role of CAL-WR for the primary resection of suspected T1 colon cancer has to be established.

METHODS

This retrospective study aimed to determine the radicality and safety of CAL-WR as a local en bloc resection technique for a suspected T1 colon cancer. Therefore, the study identified patients in whom high-grade dysplasia or a T1 colon carcinoma was suspected based on histology and/or macroscopic assessment, requiring an en bloc resection.

RESULTS

The study analyzed 57 patients who underwent CAL-WR for a suspected macroscopic polyp or polyps with biopsy-proven high-grade dysplasia or T1 colon carcinoma. For 27 of these 57 patients, a pT1 colon carcinoma was diagnosed at pathologic examination after CAL-WR. Histological risk factors for LNM were present in three cases, and 70% showed deep submucosal invasion (Sm2/Sm3). For patients with pT1 colon carcinoma, an overall R0-resection rate of 88.9% was achieved. A minor complication was noted in one patient (1.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

The CAL-WR procedure is an effective and safe technique for suspected high-grade dysplasia or T1-colon carcinoma. It may fill the gap for tumors that are macroscopic suspected for deep submucosal invasion, providing more patients an organ-preserving treatment option.

Prognostic Factors for Lymph Node Metastases in pT1 Colorectal Cancer Differ According to Tumor Morphology: A Nationwide Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether there is a differential impact of histopathological risk factors for lymph node metastases (LNM) in pedunculated and nonpedunculated pT1 colorectal cancers (CRC).

BACKGROUND

Tumor budding, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), and venous invasion (VI) are recognized risk factors for LNM in pT1 CRC. Whether the importance of these factors varies according to tumor morphology is unknown.

METHODS

Patients undergoing resection with lymphadenectomy for pT1 CRC in Denmark from January 2016 to January 2019 were identified in the Danish Colorectal Cancer Database and clinicopathological data was reviewed. Prognostic factors for LNM were investigated using multivariable analyses on the cohort as a whole as well as when stratifying according to tumor morphology (pedunculated vs. nonpedunculated).

RESULTS

A total of 1167 eligible patients were identified, of whom 170 had LNM (14.6%). Independent prognostic factors for LNM included LVI [odds ratio (OR)=4.26, P <0.001], VI (OR=3.42, P <0.001), tumor budding (OR=2.12, P =0.002), high tumor grade (OR=2.76, P =0.020), and age per additional year (OR=0.96, P <0.001). On subgroup analyses, LVI and VI remained independently prognostic for LNM regardless of tumor morphology. However, tumor budding was only prognostic for LNM in pedunculated tumors (OR=4.19, P <0.001), whereas age was only prognostic in nonpedunculated tumors (OR=0.61, P =0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

While LVI and LI were found to be prognostic of LNM in all pT1 CRC, the prognostic value of tumor budding differs between pedunculated and nonpedunculated tumors. Thus, tumor morphology should be taken into account when considering completion surgery in patients undergoing local excision.

Local excision of T1 colorectal cancer: good differentiation, absence of lymphovascular invasion, and limited tumor radial infiltration (≤4.25 mm) may allow avoiding radical surgery

BACKGROUND

Early colorectal cancer (ECC) is defined as T1NXM0 colorectal cancer (CRC). Although a non-negligible number of T1-CRCs presents metastatic lymph-nodes, local excision is increasingly proposed as alternative to radical resection. Several criteria have been suggested to identify low-risk T1-CRC, but recommendations on this topic are still heterogeneous. This study aims to identify criteria associated with N+ T1-CRC, to select patients to undergo (or not) local excision.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of demographic, clinical, and histology criteria of 122 consecutive T1-CRC patients undergoing radical resection at Parma University Hospital between 2000 and 2018 has been performed.

RESULTS

Lymph-node metastasis (LNM) was observed in 15/122 patients (12.3%). No LNM was observed among well-differentiated (G1) tumors (0/37), while 10/65 (15.4%) G2 cases as well as 5/20 (25%) G3 patients presented LNM. G1 was associated with absence of LNM (p = 0.013). After excluding G1 patients, the rate of N + T1-CRC was 17.6% (15/85). LNM was observed in 4/8 (50%) patients with lymphovascular invasion (LVI) and in 11/77 (14.2%) without LVI. LVI resulted being associated with LNM (p < 0.042). LNM was reported in 28.3% of cases with a tumor infiltration >4.25 mm (13/46), compared to 5.1% in cases with an infiltration ≤4.25 mm (2/39) (p = 0.012). In Cox regression analysis, the higher hazard ratio (HR) was reported for the LVI + and infiltration >4.25 mm (HR 24.849).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ECC (pT1NXM0), good differentiation (G1), absence of lymphovascular invasion (LVI-), and tumor radial infiltration ≤4.25 mm may allow performing local resection and avoiding radical surgery.

Lymph node metastasis in T1 colorectal cancer with the only high-risk histology of submucosal invasion depth ≥ 1000 μm

PURPOSE

The number of patients undergoing additional surgery after endoscopic resection (ER) for T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing. Regarding high-risk histology of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in T1 CRC, a submucosal invasion depth ≥ 1000 μm (T1b) alone may be related to a low incidence of LNM. This study was conducted to clarify the incidence of LNM and to identify factors associated with LNM in T1 CRC with high-risk histology characterized only by T1b.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated patients with pathological T1b CRC who underwent colorectal resection between 2010 and 2020. Patients were divided into two groups with high-risk histology: those in whom the only high-risk feature was T1b (low-risk T1b group, n = 263), and those with T1b as well as lymphovascular invasion, tumor budding, or poorly differentiated or mucinous adenocarcinoma (high-risk T1b group, n = 289). The incidences of LNM and recurrence were compared. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify factors associated with LNM in the low-risk T1b group.

RESULTS

The incidences of LNM were 3.8% and 21.6% in the Low- and High-risk T1b groups, respectively (p < 0.01), while the 5-year recurrence rates in the two groups were 0.6% and 3.4%, respectively (p = 0.10). Multivariate analysis revealed that only a predominant histological type of moderately differentiated adenocarcinoma (p = 0.04) was independently associated with LNM in the low-risk T1b group.

CONCLUSION

When considering the omission of additional surgery after ER in cases of T1 CRC whose only high-risk histological feature is T1b, attention should be paid to the predominant histological type.

New scoring system to distinguish deep invasive submucosal and muscularis propria colorectal cancer during colonoscopy: a development and global multicenter external validation study (e-T2 Score)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Diagnostics to differentiate deep submucosal invasive (invasion depth ≥1000 μm [T1b]) colorectal cancer (CRC) from muscularis propria invasive (T2) CRC are limited. We aimed to establish and validate a scoring system that differentiates T1b from T2.

METHODS

A multicenter retrospective cross-validation study was performed. Four hundred sixty-one consecutive pathologically confirmed T1b or T2 CRCs were divided into the development (T1b, 222; T2, 189) and internal validation (T1b, 31; T2, 19) cohorts. Eight potential endoscopic findings were evaluated using the development cohort: loss of lobulation, deep depression, demarcated depressed area, protuberance within the depression, expanding appearance, fold convergency, erosion or white plaque, and Borrmann type 2 or 3 tumor. A scoring system that differentiates T1b from T2 was developed, and diagnostic performance was tested using the internal validation cohort by 8 endoscopists. External validation was conducted using 50 CRC images by 4 endoscopists from other institutions, including outside of Japan.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis identified the following 5 independent predictive endoscopic findings of T2 CRC: deep depression (odds ratio [OR], 2.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-4.04), demarcated depressed area (OR, 4.40; 95% CI, 1.39-13.9), 4-fold convergency or more (OR, 3.41; 95% CI, 1.90-6.11), erosion or white plaque (OR, 8.28; 95% CI, 2.77-24.7), and Borrmann type 2 or 3 tumor (OR, 8.76; 95% CI, 3.58-21.5). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was .90 (95% CI, .87-.93) in the development cohort, .80 (95% CI, .76-.85) in the internal validation, and .76 (95% CI, .69-.83) in the external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

We established and validated a new scoring system to differentiate T1b from T2 CRC using 5 simple endoscopic findings.

Risk Factors for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Submucosal Colorectal Cancer

Objectives:

The cornerstone of treating colorectal cancer (CRC) is generally a surgical resection with lymph node (LN) dissection. The tools for predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) in submucosal (SM) CRC are useful to avoid unnecessary surgical resection.

Methods:

Retrospectively, we analyzed 526 consecutive patients with SM CRC who underwent surgical resection at the Osaka International Cancer Institute, Osaka University Hospital, and Minoh City Hospital, Japan, between 1984 and 2012. The Osaka International Cancer Institute group and the Osaka University Hospital group were randomly divided into a training set and a test set of 2:1. The prediction model was validated in Minoh City Hospital.

Results:

We partitioned patients using three risk factors involved in the presence or absence of LNM in SM CRC: lymphatic invasion (Ly), budding grade (BD) and the depth of submucosal invasion (DSI) (cut-off value 2789 μm) that were significantly different in the multivariate analysis. As a result, a predictive model of “LNM <5%” when “Ly negative and DSI <2789 μm” was evaluated. We similarly partitioned by DSI 3000 μm as easy-to-evaluate values in clinical use. We developed the additional model for predicting LNM is 1.05%, that is, LNM <5%, when there are “Ly negative and DSI <3000 μm.”

Conclusions:

As a limitation, only patients who underwent surgical resection were included in this study. This predictive model could help clinicians and CRC patients decide on the additional surgery required after endoscopic resection.

Current problems and perspectives of pathological risk factors for lymph node metastasis in T1 colorectal cancer: Systematic review

With the prevalence of endoscopic submucosal dissection and endoscopic full thickness resection, which enable complete resection of T1 colorectal cancer with a negative margin, the treatment strategy following endoscopic resection has become more important. The necessity of secondary surgical resection is determined on the basis of the risk of lymph node metastasis according to the histopathological findings of resected specimens because ~10% of T1 colorectal cancer cases have lymph node metastasis. The current Japanese treatment guidelines state four risk factors for lymph node metastasis: lymphovascular invasion, histological differentiation, depth of submucosal invasion, and tumor budding. These guidelines have succeeded in stratifying the low-risk group for lymph node metastasis, in which endoscopic resection alone is acceptable for cure. On the other hand, there are some problems: there is variation in diagnosis methods and low interobserver agreement for each pathological factor and 90% of surgical resections are unnecessary, with lymph node metastasis negativity. To ensure patients with T1 colorectal cancer receive more appropriate treatment, these problems should be addressed. In this systematic review, we gave some suggestions to these practical issues of four pathological factors as predictors.

Deep Submucosal Invasion Is Not an Independent Risk Factor for Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Deep submucosal invasion (DSI) is considered a key risk factor for lymph node metastasis (LNM) and important criterion to recommend surgery in T1 colorectal cancer. However, metastatic risk for DSI is shown to be low in the absence of other histologic risk factors. This meta-analysis determines the independent risk of DSI for LNM.

METHODS

Suitable studies were included to establish LNM risk for DSI in univariable analysis. To assess DSI as independent risk factor, studies were eligible if risk factors (eg, DSI, poor differentiation, lymphovascular invasion, and high-grade tumor budding) were simultaneously included in multivariable analysis or LNM rate of DSI was described in absence of poor differentiation, lymphovascular invasion, and high-grade tumor budding. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% CIs were calculated.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven studies (21,238 patients) were included. Overall LNM rate was 11.2% and significantly higher for DSI-positive cancers (OR, 2.58; 95% CI, 2.10-3.18). Eight studies (3621 patients) were included in multivariable meta-analysis and did not weigh DSI as a significant predictor for LNM (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 0.96-3.12). As opposed to a significant association between LNM and poor differentiation (OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.39-3.28), high-grade tumor budding (OR, 2.83; 95% CI, 2.06-3.88), and lymphovascular invasion (OR, 3.16; 95% CI, 1.88-5.33). Eight studies (1146 patients) analyzed DSI as solitary risk factor; absolute risk of LNM was 2.6% and pooled incidence rate was 2.83 (95% CI, 1.66-4.78).

CONCLUSIONS

DSI is not a strong independent predictor for LNM and should be reconsidered as a sole indicator for oncologic surgery. The expanding armamentarium for local excision as first-line treatment prompts serious consideration in amenable cases to tailor T1 colorectal cancer management.

Endoscopic diagnosis and treatment of early colorectal cancer

Early colorectal cancer refers to cancer in the colorectum that is confined to the mucosa or submucosa and does not invade the muscularis propria, irrespective of lymph node or distant metastasis. As the number of persons undergoing screening colonoscopy increases, the proportion of patients diagnosed with precancerous colorectal lesions and early colorectal cancer also increases. In the last decade, innovative optical technologies for endoscopic diagnosis have been introduced and endoscopic treatment techniques such as endoscopic submucosal dissection have provided major breakthroughs in the management of early colorectal cancer. With these remarkable developments, endoscopic treatment has established itself as an alternative to surgical resection in the treatment of early colorectal cancer. This review will discuss the endoscopic diagnosis and treatment of early colorectal cancer. Furthermore, the unmet needs in this field and the latest research addressing those issues will be summarized.

Identification of Predictive Factors for Lymph Node Metastasis in pT1 Stage Colorectal Cancer Patients: A Retrospective Analysis Based on the Population Database

Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify predictive factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in pT1 stage colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Methods: From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, 2,697 consecutive pT1 stage patients who underwent surgical resection were retrospectively reviewed. Predictive factors for LNM were identified by the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the relationships between LNM and overall survival (OS) as well as cancer specific survival (CSS) of pT1 stage CRC patients. Results: The prevalence of LNM in pT1 stage CRC patients was 15.2% (410/2,697). Patient age <60 years (OR:1.869, 95% CI: 1.505-2.321, p < 0.001), poorly differentiated or mucinous or signet ring cell adenocarcinoma (OR:2.075, 95% CI: 1.584-2.717, p < 0.001), elevated carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (OR:1.343, 95% CI: 1.022-1.763, p = 0.033) and perineural invasion (PNI) (OR:6.212, 95% CI: 3.502-11.017, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with LNM in pT1 stage patients. The survival analysis demonstrated that pT1 stage patients with LNM had a worse OS (5-year OS: 82.2% vs 88.7%, p = 0.020) and CSS (5-year CSS: 74.9% vs 81.5%, p = 0.041) than those without lymph node metastasis. Lymph node metastasis was an independent predictor of poor OS (HR: 1.543, 95% CI: 1.156-2.060, p = 0.003) and CSS (HR: 1.614, 95% CI: 1.121-2.324, p = 0.010) for pT1 stage colorectal cancer patients. Conclusion: Age, differentiation type, CEA level and perineural invasion were independent predictive factors for LNM in pT1 stage CRC patients. These findings might provide further risk stratification for pT1 stage patients and help clinicians identify high-risk individuals.

Supervised Learning Based Systemic Inflammatory Markers Enable Accurate Additional Surgery for pT1NxM0 Colorectal Cancer: A Comparative Analysis of Two Practical Prediction Models for Lymph Node Metastasis

Purpose

Predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) after endoscopic resection is crucial in determining whether patients with pT1NxM0 colorectal cancer (CRC) should undergo additional surgery. This study was aimed to develop a predictive model that can be used to reduce the current likelihood of overtreatment.

Patients and Methods

We recruited a total of 1194 consecutive CRC patients with pT1NxM0 who underwent endoscopic or surgical resection at the Gezhouba Central Hospital of Sinopharm between January 1, 2006, and August 31, 2021. The random forest classifier (RFC) and generalized linear algorithm (GLM) were used to screen out the variables that greatly affected the LNM prediction, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to assess the accuracy of predictive models.

Results

Analysis identified the top 10 candidate factors including depth of submucosal invasion, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), platelet-to-neutrophil ratio(PNR), venous invasion, poorly differentiated clusters, tumor budding, grade, lymphatic vascular invasion, and background adenoma. The performance of the GLM achieved the highest AUC of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.30 to 1.28) in the training cohort and robust AUC of 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36 to 1.24) in the validation cohort. Meanwhile, the RFC exhibited a robust AUC of 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.40 to 1.28) in the training cohort and a high AUC of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.41 to 1.29) in the validation cohort. DCAs also showed that the RFC had superior predictive ability.

Conclusion

Our supervised learning-based model incorporating histopathologic parameters and inflammatory markers showed a more accurate predictive performance compared to the GLM. This newly supervised learning-based predictive model can be used to determine an individually tailored treatment strategy.

Nomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study

Purpose

Distant metastasis (DM) is relatively rare in T1 colon cancer (CC) patients, especially in those with negative lymph node metastasis. The aim of this study was to explore the main clinical factors and build nomogram for predicting the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 colon cancer patients.

Methods

Patients with T1N0 stage CC were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database. All patients were divided into development and validation cohorts with the 3:1 ratio. Logistic regressions were performed to analyze the clinical risk factors for DM. Cox regression model was used to identify potential prognostic factors for patients with DM. The performance of nomogram was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analyses (DCAs). Based on cancer-specific survival (CSS), Kaplan-Meier curves were generated and analyzed using Log rank tests.

Results

A total of 6770 patients were enrolled in this study, including 428 patients (6.3%) with DM. Age, size, grade, CEA were independent risk factors associated with DM. Age, grade, CEA, surgery and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for CSS. Nomograms were applied and C-index, calibration curves, ROC curves and DCA curves proved good discrimination, calibration and clinical practicability of the nomogram in predicting the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 CC patients. In the DM nomogram, the AUCs for development and validation cohort were 0.901 (95% CI = 0.879-0.922) and 0.899 (95% CI=0.865-0.940), respectively. The calibration curves (development cohort: S: p = 0.712; validation cohort: S: p = 0.681) showed the relatively satisfactory prediction accuracy. Similarly, the AUCs of the nomogram at 1-, 2-, and 3-year were 0.763 (95% CI=0.744-0.782), 0.794 (95% CI=0.775-0.813), and 0.822 (95% CI=0.803-0.841) for the development cohort, and 0.785 (95% CI=0.754-0.816), 0.748 (95% CI=0.717-0.779) and 0.896 (95% CI=0.865-0.927) for the validation cohort in the CSS nomogram. The C-indices of the development and validation cohort were 0.718 (95% CI=0.639-0.737) and 0.712 (95% CI=0.681-0.743).

Conclusion

The population-based nomogram could help clinicians predict the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 CC patients and provide a reference to perform appropriate metastatic screening plans and rational therapeutic options for the special population.

Predictors of Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 Colorectal Cancer in Young Patients: Results from a National Cancer Registry

The objective of this study is to fill the knowledge gap by examining predictors of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in young patients, less than 45 years, using a national cancer registry. Methods: Patients diagnosed with T1 colorectal cancer were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry. In total, 692 patients with T1 colorectal cancer were identified. Most tumors occurred in white race (77.7%), between 40 and 44 years of age (49.4%), with grade III tumor differentiation (59.8%) and 1 to 1.9 cm size (32.2%), and were left-sided tumors (61.1%). The overall rate of LNM was 22.5% (n = 149). LNM was associated with tumor grade IV (undifferentiated) (odds ratio (OR) 2.94, CI: 1.06–8.12; p = 0.038), and increasing tumor size (1 cm–1.9 cm: OR 2.92, CI: 1.71–4.97, p < 0.001; 2.0 cm–2.9 cm: OR 2.00, CI: 1.05–3.77, p = 0.034; and ≥3.0 cm: OR 2.68, CI: 1.43–5.01, p = 0.002). Five-year cancer-specific survival for patients with LNM was 91% and for patients without LNM this was 98%. Adjusted cox proportion models showed that LNM was associated with a four times higher rate of mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 4.43, CI: 1.27–15.52, p = 0.020). In this population-based analysis of patients with T1 colorectal cancer, tumor size and grade were significant predictors of LNM.

The essential problem of over-measuring the depth of submucosal invasion in pT1 colorectal cancer

A depth of submucosal invasion (DSI) of ≥1000 μm is an important risk factor for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with submucosal invasive (pT1) colorectal cancer (CRC), according to the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy and the Japanese Society for Cancer of the Colon and Rectum (JSCCR) guidelines. According to the latter, if the location of the muscularis mucosae in the invasive area is not confirmed, the DSI can be measured from the surface. In these cases, a 'remaining intramucosal lesion' (rIL), which is in the invasive area, is sometimes observed. To avoid over-measuring the DSI, we proposed a 'modified DSI' (mDSI), which excludes the rIL from the JSCCR DSI. We investigated the characteristics and effectiveness of the rIL and mDSI by grouping cases with polypoid growth (PG) and non-polypoid growth (NPG) histologically. Three hundred and thirty-nine consecutive patients with pT1 CRC were examined. LNM was detected in 37 cases. The distribution of the DSI and rIL was significantly higher in PG than in NPG cases (P<0.001). There was no difference in the mDSI distribution between the PG-/NPG-type cases. An rIL was observed in 39% (127/301) of cases, in which the location of the muscularis mucosae could not be determined or estimated and the mDIS could be estimated. In 13% (16/127) of cases, the mDSI was effective (JSCCR DSI ≥1000 and mDSI <1000 μm). Among these 16 cases, 11 (69%) did not have risk factors (mDSI, lymphovascular invasion, budding grade, or special histological types) and may have avoided unnecessary surgery.

Histopathological risk factors for lymph node metastases in T1 colorectal cancer: meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

National screening programmes increase the proportion of T1 colorectal cancers. Local excision may be possible, but the risk of lymph node metastases (LNMs) could jeopardize long-term outcomes. The aim of the present study was to review the association between histopathological findings and LNMs in T1 colorectal cancer.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed,Embase, and Cochrane online databases. Studies investigating the association between one or more histopathological factors and LNMs in patients who underwent resection for T1 colorectal cancer were included.

RESULTS

Sixteen observational studies were included in the meta-analysis, including a total of 10 181 patients, of whom 1 307 had LNMs. Lymphovascular invasion (odds ratio (OR) 7.42; P < 0.001), tumour budding (OR 4.00; P < 0.001), depth of submucosal invasion, whether measured as at least 1000 µm (OR 3.53; P < 0.001) or Sm2-3 (OR 2.12; P = 0.020), high tumour grade (OR 3.75; P < 0.001), polypoid growth pattern (OR 1.59; P = 0.040), and rectal location of tumour (OR 1.36; P = 0.003) were associated with LNMs.

CONCLUSION

Distinct histopathological factors associated with nodal metastases in T1 colorectal cancer can aid selection of patients for local excision or major excisional surgery.

Development and validation of a nomogram for further decision of radical surgery in pT1 colorectal cancer after local resection

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram to assist physicians making further decisions on the requirement of a radical surgery for T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) after local excision through preoperative prediction of lymph node metastasis (LNM).

METHODS

A total of 141 T1 CRC patients were enrolled from January 2013 to August 2020. The independent predictive parameters were determined in multivariate analyses. The nomogram was constructed based on predictors of LNM and its performance was evaluated with respect to its calibration, discrimination, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation by bootstrapping was performed to verify the applicability of the nomogram.

RESULTS

cN in CT/MRI (N+), histologic type (poorly differentiated, mucinous adenocarcinoma, and signet-ring cell carcinoma), tumor budding (G3), and lymphovascular invasion were identified in the multivariable analysis (p<0.05). The developed nomogram incorporated these four predictors and it yielded good discrimination and calibration, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.80-0.97). However, the Japanese guideline yielded an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.63-0.87). A decision curve analysis showed that the predictive scoring system had a high clinical application value, and the nomogram conferred a greater benefit than the Japanese guideline did (range of threshold within 10%-80%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study proposed a novel predictive model to assist physicians in making treatment decisions regarding additional surgery after local excision.

[Clinical Practice Guideline for Endoscopic Resection of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer]

Although surgery was the standard treatment for early gastrointestinal cancers, endoscopic resection is now a standard treatment for early gastrointestinal cancers without regional lymph node metastasis. High-definition white light endoscopy, chromoendoscopy, and image-enhanced endoscopy such as narrow band imaging are performed to assess the edge and depth of early gastrointestinal cancers for delineation of resection boundaries and prediction of the possibility of lymph node metastasis before the decision of endoscopic resection. Endoscopic mucosal resection and/or endoscopic submucosal dissection can be performed to remove early gastrointestinal cancers completely by en bloc fashion. Histopathological evaluation should be carefully made to investigate the presence of risk factors for lymph node metastasis such as depth of cancer invasion and lymphovascular invasion. Additional treatment such as radical surgery with regional lymphadenectomy should be considered if the endoscopically resected specimen shows risk factors for lymph node metastasis. This is the first Korean clinical practice guideline for endoscopic resection of early gastrointestinal cancer. This guideline was developed by using mainly de novo methods and encompasses endoscopic management of superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, early gastric cancer, and early colorectal cancer. This guideline will be revised as new data on early gastrointestinal cancer are collected.

Risk Factors for Lymph Node Metastasis in Pathological T1b Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND/AIM

The rate of lymph node metastasis (LNM) of colorectal carcinoma (CRC) with a submucosal (SM) invasion depth of 1000 µm or more can reach 12.5%, which is the most common reason for additional resection in daily practice. Other studies have reported that the rate of LNM is less than 2%, regardless of the depth of invasion, if the lesions show good histology, lymphovascular infiltration is negative, and tumor budding is limited. The purpose of this study was to investigate new risk factors for LNM in T1b colorectal cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The 239 patients who were diagnosed with pathological T1b CRC after colorectal surgical resection at the Osaka Police Hospital in Japan between January 2008 and December 2018 were retrospectively reviewed in this study.

RESULTS

The LNM rate was 11.3% (27/239). The variables identified as being significant factors using multivariate analysis were: i) lymphatic invasion (Ly)-positive [odds ratio (OR)=5.97; 95% confidence interval (CI)=2.27-15.74], ii) female gender (OR=3.49; 95%CI=1.38-8.85), and iii) left-sided colorectal involvement (OR=4.98; 95%CI=1.22-20.39). If none of these risk factors were present with T1b, the LNM rate was 0% (0/28).

CONCLUSIONS

Ly-positive, female gender, and left-sided colorectal involvement could be risk factors for LNM in T1b CRC.

Preoperative prediction of regional lymph node metastasis of colorectal cancer based on 18F-FDG PET/CT and machine learning

PURPOSE

To establish and validate a regional lymph node (LN) metastasis prediction model of colorectal cancer (CRC) based on 18F-FDG PET/CT and radiomic features using machine-learning methods.

METHODS

A total of 199 colorectal cancer patients underwent pre-therapy diagnostic 18F-FDG PET/CT scans and CRC radical surgery. The Chang-Gung Image Texture Analysis toolbox (CGITA) was used to extract 70 PET radiomic features reflecting 18F-FDG uptake heterogeneity of tumors. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was used to select radiomic features and develop a radiomic signature score (Rad-score). The training set was used to establish five machine-learning prediction models and the test set was used to test the efficacy of the models. The effectiveness of the models was compared by ROC analysis.

RESULTS

The CRC patients were divided into a training set (n = 144) and a test set (n = 55). Two radiomic features were selected to build the Rad-score. Five machine-learning algorithms including logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest, neural network and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were used to established models. Among the five machine-learning models, logistic regression (AUC 0.866, 95% CI 0.808-0.925) and XGBoost (AUC 0.903, 95% CI 0.855-0.951) models performed the best. In the training set, the AUC of these two models were significantly higher than that of the LN metastasis status reported by 18F-FDG PET/CT for differentiating positive and negative regional LN metastases in CRC (all p < 0.05). Good efficacy of the above two models was also achieved in the test set. We created a nomogram based on the logistic regression model that visualized the results and provided an easy-to-use method for predicting regional LN metastasis in patients with CRC.

CONCLUSION

In this study, five machine-learning models for preoperative prediction of regional LN metastasis of CRC based on 18F-FDG PET/CT and PET-based radiomic features were successfully developed and validated. Among them, the logistic regression and XGBoost models performed the best, with higher efficacy than 18F-FDG PET/CT in both the training and test sets.

Artificial Intelligence System to Determine Risk of T1 Colorectal Cancer Metastasis to Lymph Node

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In accordance with guidelines, most patients with T1 colorectal cancers (CRC) undergo surgical resection with lymph node dissection, despite the low incidence (∼10%) of metastasis to lymph nodes. To reduce unnecessary surgical resections, we used artificial intelligence to build a model to identify T1 colorectal tumors at risk for metastasis to lymph node and validated the model in a separate set of patients.

METHODS

We collected data from 3134 patients with T1 CRC treated at 6 hospitals in Japan from April 1997 through September 2017 (training cohort). We developed a machine-learning artificial neural network (ANN) using data on patients' age and sex, as well as tumor size, location, morphology, lymphatic and vascular invasion, and histologic grade. We then conducted the external validation on the ANN model using independent 939 patients at another hospital during the same period (validation cohort). We calculated areas under the receiver operator characteristics curves (AUCs) for the ability of the model and US guidelines to identify patients with lymph node metastases.

RESULTS

Lymph node metastases were found in 319 (10.2%) of 3134 patients in the training cohort and 79 (8.4%) of /939 patients in the validation cohort. In the validation cohort, the ANN model identified patients with lymph node metastases with an AUC of 0.83, whereas the guidelines identified patients with lymph node metastases with an AUC of 0.73 (P < .001). When the analysis was limited to patients with initial endoscopic resection (n = 517), the ANN model identified patients with lymph node metastases with an AUC of 0.84 and the guidelines identified these patients with an AUC of 0.77 (P = .005).

CONCLUSIONS

The ANN model outperformed guidelines in identifying patients with T1 CRCs who had lymph node metastases. This model might be used to determine which patients require additional surgery after endoscopic resection of T1 CRCs. UMIN Clinical Trials Registry no: UMIN000038609.

Molecular Features of Lymph Node Metastasis in T1/2 Colorectal Cancer from Formalin-Fixed Paraffin-Embedded Archival Specimens

Histological risk factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in early-stage colorectal cancers (CRC) have been described, although the predictive utility of these factors varies. Improved LNM risk assessment based on findings in endoscopic colon and rectal excisions is necessary for optimal surgical management of CRC patients with pathologic T1- /T2-staged invasive depth (i.e., tumor not invading beyond the muscularis propria layer); as the current system is overly conservative, and results in many unnecessary radical surgeries. To identify molecular features in early CRC with elevated LNM potential, we carried out proteomic and gene expression profiling to compare T1 lymph node (LN) negative with T1/2 LN positive CRC tumors from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) specimens. Using a data-independent acquisition mass spectrometry workflow, we detected over 7400 proteins and quantified over 4400 in all 21 specimens. Proteins from tumors with LN metastasis were enriched with effectors of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and gene expression profiling confirmed activation of key transcription factors, SNAI1 and ZEB1, as well as a reduction in E-cadherin expression. Toward an implementation pathway, we investigated immunohistochemistry assays targeting four EMT-related proteins. While MS could reliably discern twofold protein abundance changes, we found the semiquantitative nature of IHC scoring limited confirmation of this degree of protein expression difference. This study demonstrated that EMT effectors are associated with locoregional metastasis in T1/T2 CRC and could be used to augment metastatic risk assessment, although further developments are required to enable routine implementation.

LASSO-Based Machine Learning Algorithm for Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 Colorectal Cancer

PURPOSE

The role of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) remains unclear. Furthermore, clinical utility of a machine learning-based approach has not been widely studied.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Immunohistochemistry for TILs against CD3, CD8, and forkhead box P3 in both center and invasive margin of the tumor were performed using surgically resected T1 CRC slides. Three hundred and sixteen patients were enrolled and categorized into training (n=221) and validation (n=95) sets via random sampling. Using clinicopathologic variables including TILs, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was applied for variable selection and predictive signature building in the training set. The predictive accuracy of our model and the Japanese criteria were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA) in the validation set.

RESULTS

LNM was detected in 29 (13.1%) and 12 (12.6%) patients in training and validation sets, respectively. Nine variables were selected and used to generate the LASSO model. Its performance was similar in training and validation sets (AUROC, 0.795 vs. 0.765; p=0.747). In the validation set, the LASSO model showed better outcomes in predicting LNM than Japanese criteria, as measured by AUROC (0.765 vs. 0.518, p=0.003) and NRI (0.447, p=0.039)/IDI (0.121, p=0.034). DCA showed positive net benefits in using our model.

CONCLUSION

Our LASSO model incorporating histopathologic parameters and TILs showed superior performance compared to conventional Japanese criteria in predicting LNM in patients with T1 CRC.

Clinical practice guideline for endoscopic resection of early gastrointestinal cancer

Although surgery was the standard treatment for early gastrointestinal cancers, endoscopic resection is now a standard treatment for early gastrointestinal cancers without regional lymph node metastasis. High-definition white light endoscopy, chromoendoscopy, and image-enhanced endoscopy such as narrow band imaging are performed to assess the edge and depth of early gastrointestinal cancers for delineation of resection boundaries and prediction of the possibility of lymph node metastasis before the decision of endoscopic resection. Endoscopic mucosal resection and/or endoscopic submucosal dissection can be performed to remove early gastrointestinal cancers completely by en bloc fashion. Histopathological evaluation should be carefully made to investigate the presence of risk factors for lymph node metastasis such as depth of cancer invasion and lymphovascular invasion. Additional treatment such as radical surgery with regional lymphadenectomy should be considered if the endoscopically resected specimen shows risk factors for lymph node metastasis. This is the first Korean clinical practice guideline for endoscopic resection of early gastrointestinal cancer. This guideline was developed by using mainly de novo methods and encompasses endoscopic management of superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, early gastric cancer, and early colorectal cancer. This guideline will be revised as new data on early gastrointestinal cancer are collected.

pT1 Colorectal Cancer Detected in a Colorectal Cancer Mass Screening Program: Treatment and Factors Associated with Residual and Extraluminal Disease

Simple Summary

Our study has evaluated the burden of pT1 CRC (confined to submucosa) detected during the first round of a CRC screening program, the surgery related complications and the factors related to four relevant outcomes: initial endoscopic resection, surgery rescue and residual disease after endoscopic resection and, finally, extraluminal disease after surgical resection. 38% of the CRC were detected in this stage.74.9% were initially resected endoscopically and 43.8% did not require surgery. There were inhospital surgical complications in 30.7%, mainly mild with no death and complications after discharge in 16.3% of the patients Residual disease was detected in 12 (4.3%) after endoscopic resection and extraluminal disease in 18 (8.6%) patients after surgery. We have determined several variables independently associated with the four outcome variables evaluated.

Abstract

The aim of this study is to describe the treatment of pT1 colorectal cancer (CRC) in a mass screening program, the surgery-related complications and the factors associated with residual disease after endoscopic resection and extraluminal disease after surgery. We included in this retrospective analysis all the pT1 CRC detected in the Galician CRC screening program between May 2013 and June 2019. We determined which variables were independently associated with the outcomes of the study through a multivariable logistic regression analysis. We included 370–354 pT1 N0(X), 16 pT1N1- out of the 971 CRC detected; 277 (74.9%) were resected endoscopically and 162 (43.8%) were not referred to surgery. There were surgical complications in 30.7% and 16.3% of the patients during hospitalization and after discharge. Residual disease was detected in 12 (4.3%) after endoscopic resection and extraluminal disease in 18 (8.6%) patients after surgery. The variables independently associated with initial endoscopic resection were a pedunculated morphology (OR 33.1, 95% CI 4.3–254), a diameter ≥ 20 mm (OR 3.94, 95% CI 1.39–11.18) and a Site–Morphology–Size–Access score < 9 (OR 428, 95% CI 42–4263). The variables related with surgery rescue were a piecemeal resection (OR 4.48, 95% CI 1.48–13.6), an infiltrated/nonevaluable resection border (OR 7.44, 95% CI 2.12–26.0), a non-well-differentiated histology (OR 4.76, 95% CI 1.07–20.0), vascular infiltration (OR 8.24, 95% CI 2.72–25.0) and a Haggitt 4 infiltration of the submucosa (OR 5.68, 95% CI 2.62–12.3). Residual disease after endoscopic resection was associated with an infiltrated/nonevaluable resection border (OR 34.9, 95% CI 4.08–298), a non-well-differentiated histology (OR 6.67, 95% CI 1.05–50.0), and the vascular infiltration of the submucosa (OR 7.61, 95% CI 1.55–37.4). The variables related with extraluminal disease after surgical resection were no endoscopic resection (OR 4.34, 95% CI 1.26–14.28), a non-well-differentiated histology (OR 4.35, 95% CI 1.39–14.29) and the lymphatic infiltration of the submucosa (OR 4.8, 95% CI 1.32–17.8). In a CRC screening program, although most of pT1 CRC are candidates for endoscopic treatment, surgery is a safe procedure. We have defined some easy to evaluate variables that can be used in the decision-making process.

Clinical Practice Guideline for Endoscopic Resection of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer

Although surgery was the standard treatment for early gastrointestinal cancers, endoscopic resection is now a standard treatment for early gastrointestinal cancers without regional lymph node metastasis. High-definition white light endoscopy, chromoendoscopy, and image-enhanced endoscopy such as narrow band imaging are performed to assess the edge and depth of early gastrointestinal cancers for delineation of resection boundaries and prediction of the possibility of lymph node metastasis before the decision of endoscopic resection. Endoscopic mucosal resection and/or endoscopic submucosal dissection can be performed to remove early gastrointestinal cancers completely by en bloc fashion. Histopathological evaluation should be carefully made to investigate the presence of risk factors for lymph node metastasis such as depth of cancer invasion and lymphovascular invasion. Additional treatment such as radical surgery with regional lymphadenectomy should be considered if the endoscopically resected specimen shows risk factors for lymph node metastasis. This is the first Korean clinical practice guideline for endoscopic resection of early gastrointestinal cancer. This guideline was developed by using mainly de novo methods and encompasses endoscopic management of superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, early gastric cancer, and early colorectal cancer. This guideline will be revised as new data on early gastrointestinal cancer are collected.

Risk factors and predictors of lymph nodes metastasis and distant metastasis in newly diagnosed T1 colorectal cancer

Background

Lymph nodes metastasis (LNM) and distant metastasis (DM) are important prognostic factors in colorectal cancer (CRC) and determine the following treatment approaches. We aimed to find clinicopathological factors associated with LNM and DM, and analyze the prognosis of CRC patients with T1 stage.

Methods

A total of 17 516 eligible patients with T1 CRC were retrospectively enrolled in the study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2004‐2016. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for LNM and DM. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify prognostic factors for overall survival. We performed the cumulative incidence function (CIF) to further determine the prognostic role of LNM and DM in colorectal cancer‐specific death (CCSD). LNM, DM, and OS nomogram were constructed based on these models and evaluated by the C‐index and calibration plots for discrimination and accuracy, respectively. The clinical utility of the nomograms was measured by decision curve analyses (DCAs) and subgroups with different risk scores.

Results

Tumor grade, mucinous adenocarcinoma, and age accounted for the first three largest proportion among the LNM nomogram scores (all, P < .001), whereas N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and tumor size occupied the largest percentage in DM nomogram (all, P < .001). OS nomogram was formulated to visually to predict 3‐, 5‐, and 10‐ year overall survivals for patients with T1 CRC. The calibration curves showed an effectively predictive accuracy of prediction nomograms, of which the C‐index were 0.666, 0.874, and 0.760 for good discrimination, respectively. DCAs and risk subgroups revealed the clinical effectiveness of these nomograms.

Conclusions

Novel population‐based nomograms for T1 CRC patients could objectively and accurately predict the risk of LNM and DM, as well as OS for different stages. These predictive tools may help clinicians to make individual clinical decisions, before clinical management.

Clinical Practice Guideline for Endoscopic Resection of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer

Although surgery was the standard treatment for early gastrointestinal cancers, endoscopic resection is now a standard treatment for early gastrointestinal cancers without regional lymph node metastasis. High-definition white light endoscopy, chromoendoscopy, and image-enhanced endoscopy such as narrow band imaging are performed to assess the edge and depth of early gastrointestinal cancers for delineation of resection boundaries and prediction of the possibility of lymph node metastasis before the decision of endoscopic resection. Endoscopic mucosal resection and/or endoscopic submucosal dissection can be performed to remove early gastrointestinal cancers completely by <i>en bloc</i> fashion. Histopathological evaluation should be carefully made to investigate the presence of risk factors for lymph node metastasis such as depth of cancer invasion and lymphovascular invasion. Additional treatment such as radical surgery with regional lymphadenectomy should be considered if the endoscopically resected specimen shows risk factors for lymph node metastasis. This is the first Korean clinical practice guideline for endoscopic resection of early gastrointestinal cancer. This guideline was developed by using mainly de novo methods and encompasses endoscopic management of superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, early gastric cancer, and early colorectal cancer. This guideline will be revised as new data on early gastrointestinal cancer are collected.

Cellular Dissociation Grading Based on the Parameters Tumor Budding and Cell Nest Size in Pretherapeutic Biopsy Specimens Allows for Prognostic Patient Stratification in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Independent From Clinical Staging

Initial treatment planning in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma mainly relies on clinical staging. Recently, a highly prognostic grading system based on the cellular dissociation parameters Tumor Budding and Cell Nest Size has been proposed for resected esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. To probe for the transferability and relevance of this established novel grading system in the pretreatment setting, we evaluated Tumor Budding/Cell Nest Size in pretherapeutic biopsies of either primarily resected (cohort 1, n=80) or neoadjuvantly treated (cohort 2, n=75) esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Grading data were correlated with clinicopathologic and survival parameters. High Tumor Budding Activity and small Cell Nest Size in pretherapeutic biopsies were strongly associated with shortened overall survival, disease-free survival, and disease-specific survival in both cohorts. A modified histopathologic grading system incorporating both factors termed "Cellular Dissociation Grade" showed excellent prognostic demarcation between well (G1), moderately (G2), and poorly differentiated (G3) carcinomas in both scenarios (overall survival: cohort 1: P<0.001; cohort 2: P=0.009) and was predictive for a high pathologic tumor stage and the presence of nodal metastases in primarily resected patients. Multivariate analyses revealed the Cellular Dissociation Grade to be a predictor of poor outcome in the pretherapeutic setting independent of clinical stage (overall survival, disease-free survival, and disease-specific survival: P<0.001). Hazard ratio for disease-free survival was 3.19 for G2 and 5.66 for G3 carcinomas compared with G1 neoplasms. Our data not only prove the transferability of histopathologic grading based on Tumor Budding/Cell Nest Size to biopsy specimens in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, but also demonstrate that the Cellular Dissociation Grade is a strong outcome predictor in this entity even in the pretreatment scenario. Therefore, we believe that this novel type of grading has the ability to serve as a powerful histology-based pretherapeutic biomarker, that might supplement clinical staging for choosing the most suitable therapy decision.

High-grade intratumoral tumor budding is a predictor for lymphovascular invasion and adverse outcome in stage II colorectal cancer

PURPOSE

Evaluation of tumor budding in colorectal cancer (CRC) may help to predict the tumors' metastatic potential and patients with an aggressive tumor, although not yet metastasized at time of surgery might benefit from adjuvant therapy.

METHODS

The degree of intratumoral tumor budding (ITB) was classified as low, intermediate, and high grade according to the recommendations of the International Tumor Budding Consensus Conference (ITBCC) 2016 on H&E and pankeratin-stained TMA sections from 1262 CRC, no special type (NST), including 655 stage II CRC and was correlated to clinicopathological data and overall survival.

RESULTS

Results show that higher ITB rates are significantly linked to higher tumor grade and stage, positive nodal status, lymphovascular invasion (P < 0.0001 each), absence of peritumoral lymphocytes, infiltrating type invasive tumor margin, left-sided cancer localization, and mismatch-repair proficient cancers (P < 0.05 each). In a cohort of 655 stage II CRC, ITB was associated with lymphovascular invasion (P = 0.0459) and adverse clinical outcome (P < 0.0001). In a multivariate analysis including tumor stage, tumor grade, lymphovascular invasion, ITB, and tumor localization, only low tumor stage (P = 0.0022) and absence of lymphovascular invasion (P = 0.0043) showed independent prognostic significance.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, our findings argue towards a clinical utility of ITB as a prognostic biomarker in stage II colorectal cancer to define patients who might benefit from adjuvant therapy. ITB might be used as additional or surrogate marker in CRC in which peritumoral tumor budding is difficult to assess.

Inverse Association of Age with Risk of Lymph Node Metastasis in Superficial Colorectal Cancer: A Large Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Superficial colorectal cancer (SCRC) is defined as colorectal cancer (CRC) confined to the mucosa or submucosa. Endoscopic resection (ER) is widely used to resect differentiated SCRC from patients without lymph node metastasis (LNM). However, it is unclear whether ER is suitable for use with patients with differentiated early-onset SCRC because early-onset CRC is more aggressive. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association between age of CRC onset and LNM.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrieved data for patients with surgically resected differentiated-type SCRCs from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Rate of LNM was compared among patients aged 18-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and ≥70 years. The association between age and LNM was further examined using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

We retrieved 34,506 records of differentiated SCRCs from the SEER database, including 667 patients aged 18-39 years, 2,385 aged 40-49, 8,075 aged 50-59 years, 9,577 aged 60-69 years, and 13,802 aged ≥70 years. Rates of LNM were 15.74%, 14.13%, 10.67%, 8.07%, and 6.76% for patients aged 18-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and ≥70 years, respectively. We found an inverse correlation between age at diagnosis and risk of LNM from the univariate analysis (p < .001). Compared with patients aged 18-39, the odds ratios with 95% confidence interval (CI) for patients aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and ≥70 years were 0.90 (0.71-1.15, p = .376), 0.69 (0.56-0.87, p = .001), 0.54 (0.43-0.68, p < .001), and 0.47 (0.38-0.60, p < .001), respectively.

CONCLUSION

In differentiated SCRCs, younger age at diagnosis was associated with higher risk of LNM.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Endoscopic resection (ER) is widely used to resect differentiated superficial colorectal cancer (SCRC) without lymph node metastasis (LNM). However, no study has ever investigated risk of LNM of early-onset SCRC compared with average onset SCRC to explore whether ER is suitable for early-onset SCRC. To the authors' knowledge, this population-based study is the first study to find inverse correlation between age at diagnosis and risk of LNM in differentiated SCRCs. This finding indicates that ER may not be suitable for young patients with differentiated SCRC. Because the 30-day operative mortality after surgery is higher but the risk of LNM is lower in older patients compared with younger patients, ER for differentiated SCRCs may be advantageous over surgery for older patients.

Histologic Evaluation of Malignant Polyps and Low-Stage Colorectal Carcinoma

CONTEXT.—

With widespread screening for colorectal cancer, the number of early-stage colorectal cancers is increasing. Local excision of pT1 tumors is associated with considerably less morbidity and mortality, but this must be weighed against risk of lymph node metastases.

OBJECTIVE.—

To understand histologic prognostic factors associated with adverse outcome in malignant polyps.

DATA SOURCES.—

Pertinent literature regarding histologic features of prognostic significance in malignant polyps and low-stage colorectal carcinomas is summarized and our institute's cases are used to highlight these histologic features.

CONCLUSIONS.—

Poor prognostic factors for malignant polyps include high tumor grade, presence of lymphovascular invasion, tumor less than 1 mm from resection margin, submucosal invasion deeper than 1 mm, and high tumor budding. These features should be assessed by the pathologist and communicated to the clinical team in order to allow proper management.

Pathological risk factors and predictive endoscopic factors for lymph node metastasis of T1 colorectal cancer: a single-center study of 846 lesions

BACKGROUND

Determining the depth of invasion of early stage colorectal cancer has been emphasized as a means of improving endoscopic diagnostic accuracy. Recent studies have focused on other pathological risk factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM). We investigated the significance of depth of invasion and predictive properties of other endoscopic findings.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated 846 patients with submucosal invasive (T1) colorectal cancer who received an accurate pathological diagnosis and were treated between January 2005 and December 2016. Pathological risk factors associated with LNM were reviewed. We divided patients into groups: low-risk T1 colorectal cancer (LRC; no risk factors) and high-risk T1 colorectal cancer (HRC; exhibiting lymphovascular invasion, tumor budding grade of 2/3, and/or poor differentiation) and studied predictive endoscopic factors for HRC.

RESULTS

Significant risk factors for LNM in multivariate analysis were lymphovascular invasion [odds ratio (OR) 8.09; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.84-17.1], tumor budding (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.09-3.29), and histological differentiation (OR 2.09; 95% CI 1.12-3.89). The LNM-positive rate with only deep submucosal invasion was 1.6%. Significant predictive factors for HRC in multivariate analysis identified rectal tumor location (OR 1.92; 95% CI 1.35 -2.72, depression (OR 2.73; 95% CI 1.96 -3.80), protuberance within the depression (OR 2.58; 95% CI 1.39- 4.78), expansiveness (OR 2.39; 95% CI 1.27- 4.50), and loss of mucosal patterns (OR 1.90; 95% CI 1.20 -3.01) as significant factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Rectal tumor location, depression, protuberance within the depression, expansiveness, and loss of mucosal patterns could be predictive factors for HRC.

Tumor Budding in Colorectal Carcinoma: Translating a Morphologic Score Into Clinically Meaningful Results

CONTEXT

- Tumor budding has received increasing recognition as an important independent prognostic factor in colorectal carcinoma. Prominent tumor budding in adenocarcinoma arising in a polyp has been shown to be a risk factor for lymph node involvement. The variability in methods used for evaluating tumor budding in different studies and lack of standardized guidelines have impeded routine inclusion of tumor budding in pathology reports. This changed last year with consensus guidelines based on the International Tumor Budding Consensus Conference (ITBCC). These guidelines have been included in the recent College of American Pathologists (CAPs) Colorectal Cancer Protocol. The consensus methodology will allow uniform reporting of this finding, but challenges in interpretation in the setting of intense inflammation, fibrosis, or gland fragmentation need to be addressed in future guidelines.

OBJECTIVE

- To provide a brief overview of the known clinical significance of tumor budding in colorectal carcinoma and discuss the practical aspects of its implementation on a routine basis.

DATA SOURCES

- English-language pathology literature.

CONCLUSIONS

- Tumor budding has been shown to be an independent prognostic marker in colorectal carcinomas and the routine reporting of tumor buds is now advocated by using the approach outlined by the ITBCC guidelines. Tumor budding is included in the CAP protocol as a recommended element. Presence of prominent tumor budding in an adenocarcinoma in a polyp may have implications for management, such as additional resection, while it serves as a prognostic factor in other settings.

Predicting systemic spread in early colorectal cancer: Can we do better?

Through the implementation of national bowel cancer screening programmes we have seen a three-fold increase in early pT1 colorectal cancers, but how these lesions should be managed is currently unclear. Local excision can be an attractive option, especially for fragile patients with multiple comorbidities, but it is only safe from an oncological point of view in the absence of lymph node metastasis. Patient risk stratification through careful analysis of histopathological features in local excision or polypectomy specimens should be performed according to national guidelines to avoid under- or over-treatment. Currently national guidelines vary in their recommendations as to which factors should be routinely reported and there is no established multivariate risk stratification model to determine which patients should be offered major resectional surgery. Conventional histopathological parameters such as tumour grading or lymphovascular invasion have been shown to be predictive of lymph node metastasis in a number of studies but the inter- and intra-observer variation in reporting is high. Newer parameters including tumour budding and poorly differentiated clusters have been shown to have great potential, but again some improvement in the inter-observer variation is required. With the implementation of digital pathology into clinical practice, quantitative parameters like depth/area of submucosal invasion and proportion of stroma can be routinely assessed. In this review we present the various histopathological risk factors for predicting systemic spread in pT1 colorectal cancer and introduce potential novel quantitative variables and multivariable risk models that could be used to better define the optimal treatment of this increasingly common disease.

Incidence, risk factors, and a predictive model for lymph node metastasis of submucosal (T1) colon cancer: A population-based study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the incidence, identify independent factors, and develop a lymph node metastasis (LNM) prediction model for patients with T1 colon cancer.

METHODS

Statistics were drawn from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2014. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent predictors of LNM. A nomogram for predicting the possibility of LNM was developed based on those factors.

RESULTS

A total of 5397 patients with T1 colon cancer were identified. The overall LNM rate was 15.0% (808/5397). A multivariate analysis showed that age (odds ratio [OR] 0.97, P < 0.001), tumor size (OR 1.01, P < 0.001), moderate (OR 1.77, P = 0.001) or poorly differentiated/undifferentiated tumor (OR 5.60, P < 0.001), right colon cancer (OR 1.39, P = 0.008), and a positive carcinoembryonic antigen level (OR 1.51, P = 0.004) were independent predictive factors for LNM. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.71) in the training set and 0.65 (95% CI 0.61-0.67) in the validation set. A calibration plot showed good consistency between the bias-corrected prediction and the ideal reference line with 1000 additional bootstraps (mean absolute error = 0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of LNM was high in patients with T1 colon cancer. A nomogram for predicting the probability of LNM for T1 colon cancer may be used to help determine the optimal treatment for these patients.