Machine learning versus logistic regression for prognostic modelling in individuals with non-specific neck pain

Predicting inferior vena cava filter complications using machine learning

OBJECTIVE

Inferior vena cava (IVC) filter placement is associated with important long-term complications. Predictive models for filter-related complications may help guide clinical decision-making but remain limited. We developed machine learning (ML) algorithms that predict 1-year IVC filter complications using preoperative data.

METHODS

The Vascular Quality Initiative database was used to identify patients who underwent IVC filter placement between 2013 and 2024. We identified 77 preoperative demographic and clinical features from the index hospitalization when the filter was placed. The primary outcome was 1-year filter-related complications (composite of filter thrombosis, migration, angulation, fracture, and embolization or fragmentation, vein perforation, new caval or iliac vein thrombosis, new pulmonary embolism, access site thrombosis, or failed retrieval). The data were divided into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Six ML models were trained using preoperative features with 10-fold cross-validation (Extreme Gradient Boosting, random forest, Naïve Bayes classifier, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and logistic regression). The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Model robustness was assessed using calibration plot and Brier score. Performance was evaluated across subgroups based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, rurality, median Area Deprivation Index, planned duration of filter, landing site of filter, and presence of prior IVC filter placement.

RESULTS

Overall, 14,476 patients underwent IVC filter placement and 584 (4.0%) experienced 1-year filter-related complications. Patients with a primary outcome were younger (59.3 ± 16.7 years vs 63.8 ± 16.0 years; P < .001) and more likely to have thrombotic risk factors including thrombophilia, prior venous thromboembolism (VTE), and family history of VTE. The best prediction model was Extreme Gradient Boosting, achieving an AUROC of 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.94). In comparison, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.65). Calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted/observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.07. The top 10 predictors of 1-year filter-related complications were (1) thrombophilia, (2) prior VTE, (3) antiphospholipid antibodies, (4) factor V Leiden mutation, (5) family history of VTE, (6) planned duration of IVC filter (temporary), (7) unable to maintain therapeutic anticoagulation, (8) malignancy, (9) recent or active bleeding, and (10) age. Model performance remained robust across all subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed ML models that can accurately predict 1-year IVC filter complications, performing better than logistic regression. These algorithms have potential to guide patient selection for filter placement, counselling, perioperative management, and follow-up to mitigate filter-related complications and improve outcomes.

Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Biology: From Data Collection to Predictions

In the era of big data, ecological research is experiencing a transformative shift, yet big-data advancements in thermal ecology and the study of animal responses to climate conditions remain limited. This review discusses how big data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) can significantly enhance our understanding of microclimates and animal behaviors under changing climatic conditions. We explore AI's potential to refine microclimate models and analyze data from advanced sensors and camera technologies, which capture detailed, high-resolution information. This integration can allow researchers to dissect complex ecological and physiological processes with unprecedented precision. We describe how AI can enhance microclimate modeling through improved bias correction and downscaling techniques, providing more accurate estimates of the conditions that animals face under various climate scenarios. Additionally, we explore AI's capabilities in tracking animal responses to these conditions, particularly through innovative classification models that utilize sensors such as accelerometers and acoustic loggers. For example, the widespread usage of camera traps can benefit from AI-driven image classification models to accurately identify thermoregulatory responses, such as shade usage and panting. AI is therefore instrumental in monitoring how animals interact with their environments, offering vital insights into their adaptive behaviors. Finally, we discuss how these advanced data-driven approaches can inform and enhance conservation strategies. In particular, detailed mapping of microhabitats essential for species survival under adverse conditions can guide the design of climate-resilient conservation and restoration programs that prioritize habitat features crucial for biodiversity resilience. In conclusion, the convergence of AI, big data, and ecological science heralds a new era of precision conservation, essential for addressing the global environmental challenges of the 21st century.

Using Machine Learning to Predict Outcomes Following Transfemoral Carotid Artery Stenting

BACKGROUND

Transfemoral carotid artery stenting (TFCAS) carries important perioperative risks. Outcome prediction tools may help guide clinical decision-making but remain limited. We developed machine learning algorithms that predict 1-year stroke or death following TFCAS.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The VQI (Vascular Quality Initiative) database was used to identify patients who underwent TFCAS for carotid artery stenosis between 2005 and 2024. We identified 112 features from the index hospitalization (82 preoperative [demographic/clinical], 13 intraoperative [procedural], and 17 postoperative [in-hospital course/complications]). The primary outcome was 1-year postprocedural stroke or death. The data were divided into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Six machine learning models were trained using preoperative features with 10-fold cross-validation. The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The algorithm with the best performance was further trained using intra- and postoperative features. Model robustness was assessed using calibration plots and Brier scores. Overall, 35 214 patients underwent TFCAS during the study period and 3257 (9.2%) developed 1-year stroke or death. The best preoperative prediction model was extreme gradient boosting, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.93-0.95). In comparison, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63-0.67). The extreme gradient boosting model maintained excellent performance at the intra- and postoperative stages, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.93-0.95) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.97-0.99), respectively. Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted/observed event probabilities with Brier scores of 0.11 (preoperative), 0.11 (intraoperative), and 0.09 (postoperative).

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning can accurately predict 1-year stroke or death following TFCAS, performing better than logistic regression.

External validation of the Hong Kong Chinese non-laboratory risk models and scoring algorithm for case finding of prediabetes and diabetes mellitus in primary care

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

Two Hong Kong Chinese non-laboratory-based prediabetes/diabetes mellitus (pre-DM/DM) risk models were developed using logistic regression (LR) and machine learning, respectively. We aimed to evaluate the models' validity in case finding of pre-DM/DM in a Chinese primary care (PC) population. We also evaluated the validity of a risk-scoring algorithm derived from the LR model.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a cross-sectional external validation study on Chinese adults, without a prior DM diagnosis, who were recruited from public/private PC clinics in Hong Kong. A total of 1,237 participants completed a questionnaire on the models' predictors. Of that, 919 underwent blood glucose testing. The primary outcome was the models' and the algorithm's sensitivity in finding pre-DM/DM cases. The secondary outcomes were the models' and the algorithm's specificity, positive/negative predictive values, discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The models' sensitivity were 0.70 (machine learning) and 0.72 (LR). Both showed good external discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: machine learning 0.744, LR 0.739). The risks estimated by the models were lower than the observed incidence, indicating poor calibration. Both models were more effective among participants with lower pretest probabilities; that is, age 18-44 years. The algorithm's sensitivity was 0.77 at the cut-off score of ≥16 out of 41.

CONCLUSION

This study showed the validity of the models and the algorithm for finding pre-DM/DM cases in a Chinese PC population in Hong Kong. They can facilitate more cost-effective identification of high-risk individuals for blood testing to diagnose pre-DM/DM in PC. Further studies should recalibrate the models for more precise risk estimation in PC populations.

Machine Learning Models for Low Back Pain Detection and Factor Identification: Insights From a 6-Year Nationwide Survey

This study aimed to enhance performance, identify additional predictors, and improve the interpretability of biopsychosocial machine learning models for low back pain (LBP). Using survey data from a 6-year nationwide study involving 17,609 adults aged ≥50 years (Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), we explored 119 factors to detect LBP in individuals who reported experiencing LBP for at least 30 days within the previous 3 months. Our primary model, model 1, employed eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and selected primary factors (PFs) based on their feature importance scores. To extend this, we introduced additional factors, such as lumbar X-ray findings, physical activity, sitting time, and nutrient intake levels, which were available only during specific survey periods, into models 2 to 4. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve, with predicted probabilities explained by SHapley Additive exPlanations. Eleven PFs were identified, and model 1 exhibited an enhanced area under the curve .8 (.77-.84, 95% confidence interval). The factors had varying impacts across individuals, underscoring the need for personalized assessment. Hip and knee joint pain were the most significant PFs. High levels of physical activity were found to have a negative association with LBP, whereas a high intake of omega-6 was found to have a positive association. Notably, we identified factor clusters, including hip joint pain and female sex, potentially linked to osteoarthritis. In summary, this study successfully developed effective XGBoost models for LBP detection, thereby providing valuable insight into LBP-related factors. Comprehensive LBP management, particularly in women with osteoarthritis, is crucial given the presence of multiple factors. PERSPECTIVE: This article introduces XGBoost models designed to detect LBP and explores the multifactorial aspects of LBP through the application of SHapley Additive exPlanations and network analysis on the 4 developed models. The utilization of this analytical system has the potential to aid in devising personalized management strategies to address LBP.

Machine learning models for classifying non-specific neck pain using craniocervical posture and movement

OBJECTIVE

Physical therapists and clinicians commonly confirm craniocervical posture (CCP), cervical retraction, and craniocervical flexion as screening tests because they contribute to non-specific neck pain (NSNP). We compared the predictive performance of statistical machine learning (ML) models for classifying individuals with and without NSNP using datasets containing CCP and cervical kinematics during pro- and retraction (CKdPR).

DESIGN

Exploratory, cross-sectional design.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

In total, 773 public service office workers (PSOWs) were screened for eligibility (NSNP, 441; without NSNP, 332).

METHODS

We set up five datasets (CCP, cervical kinematics during the protraction, cervical kinematics during the retraction, CKdPR and combination of the CCP and CKdPR). Four ML algorithms-random forest, logistic regression, Extreme Gradient boosting, and support vector machine-were trained.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Model performance were assessed using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score. To interpret the predictions, we used Feature permutation importance and SHapley Additive explanation values.

RESULTS

The random forest model in the CKdPR dataset classified PSOWs with and without NSNP and achieved the best AUC among the five datasets using the test data (AUC, 0.892 [good]; F1, 0.832). The random forest model in the CCP dataset had the worst AUC among the five datasets using the test data [AUC, 0.738 (fair); F1, 0.715].

CONCLUSION

ML performance was higher for the CKdPR dataset than for the CCP dataset, suggesting that ML algorithms are more suitable than classical statistical methods for developing robust models for classifying PSOWs with and without NSNP.

Utilizing machine learning to predict post-treatment outcomes in chronic non-specific neck pain patients undergoing cervical extension traction

This study explored the application of machine learning in predicting post-treatment outcomes for chronic neck pain patients undergoing a multimodal program featuring cervical extension traction (CET). Pre-treatment demographic and clinical variables were used to develop predictive models capable of anticipating modifications in cervical lordotic angle (CLA), pain and disability of 570 patients treated between 2014 and 2020. Linear regression models used pre-treatment variables of age, body mass index, CLA, anterior head translation, disability index, pain score, treatment frequency, duration and compliance. These models used the sci-kit-learn machine learning library within Python for implementing linear regression algorithms. The linear regression models demonstrated high precision and accuracy, and effectively explained 30-55% of the variability in post-treatment outcomes, the highest for the CLA. This pioneering study integrates machine learning into spinal rehabilitation. The developed models offer valuable information to customize interventions, set realistic expectations, and optimize treatment strategies based on individual patient characteristics as treated conservatively with rehabilitation programs using CET as part of multimodal care.

Predicting Outcomes Following Lower Extremity Endovascular Revascularization Using Machine Learning

BACKGROUND

Lower extremity endovascular revascularization for peripheral artery disease carries nonnegligible perioperative risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. Using machine learning, we developed automated algorithms that predict 30-day outcomes following lower extremity endovascular revascularization.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted vascular database was used to identify patients who underwent lower extremity endovascular revascularization (angioplasty, stent, or atherectomy) for peripheral artery disease between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 38 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 30-day postprocedural major adverse limb event (composite of major reintervention, untreated loss of patency, or major amputation) or death. Data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, 6 machine learning models were trained using preoperative features. The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Overall, 21 886 patients were included, and 30-day major adverse limb event/death occurred in 1964 (9.0%) individuals. The best performing model for predicting 30-day major adverse limb event/death was extreme gradient boosting, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.94). In comparison, logistic regression had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.74). The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.09. The top 3 predictive features in our algorithm were (1) chronic limb-threatening ischemia, (2) tibial intervention, and (3) congestive heart failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Our machine learning models accurately predict 30-day outcomes following lower extremity endovascular revascularization using preoperative data with good discrimination and calibration. Prospective validation is warranted to assess for generalizability and external validity.

A machine learning algorithm for peripheral artery disease prognosis using biomarker data

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) biomarkers have been studied in isolation; however, an algorithm that considers a protein panel to inform PAD prognosis may improve predictive accuracy. Biomarker-based prediction models were developed and evaluated using a model development (n = 270) and prospective validation cohort (n = 277). Plasma concentrations of 37 proteins were measured at baseline and the patients were followed for 2 years. The primary outcome was 2-year major adverse limb event (MALE; composite of vascular intervention or major amputation). Of the 37 proteins tested, 6 were differentially expressed in patients with vs. without PAD (ADAMTS13, ICAM-1, ANGPTL3, Alpha 1-microglobulin, GDF15, and endostatin). Using 10-fold cross-validation, we developed a random forest machine learning model that accurately predicts 2-year MALE in a prospective validation cohort of PAD patients using a 6-protein panel (AUROC 0.84). This algorithm can support PAD risk stratification, informing clinical decisions on further vascular evaluation and management.

Using machine learning to predict outcomes following suprainguinal bypass

OBJECTIVE

Suprainguinal bypass for peripheral artery disease (PAD) carries important surgical risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. We developed machine learning (ML) algorithms that predict outcomes following suprainguinal bypass.

METHODS

The Vascular Quality Initiative database was used to identify patients who underwent suprainguinal bypass for PAD between 2003 and 2023. We identified 100 potential predictor variables from the index hospitalization (68 preoperative [demographic/clinical], 13 intraoperative [procedural], and 19 postoperative [in-hospital course/complications]). The primary outcomes were major adverse limb events (MALE; composite of untreated loss of patency, thrombectomy/thrombolysis, surgical revision, or major amputation) or death at 1 year following suprainguinal bypass. Our data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, we trained six ML models using preoperative features (Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], random forest, Naïve Bayes classifier, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and logistic regression). The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The best performing algorithm was further trained using intra- and postoperative data. Model robustness was evaluated using calibration plots and Brier scores. Performance was assessed on subgroups based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, rurality, median Area Deprivation Index, symptom status, procedure type, prior intervention for PAD, concurrent interventions, and urgency.

RESULTS

Overall, 16,832 patients underwent suprainguinal bypass, and 3136 (18.6%) developed 1-year MALE or death. Patients with 1-year MALE or death were older (mean age, 64.9 vs 63.5 years; P < .001) with more comorbidities, had poorer functional status (65.7% vs 80.9% independent at baseline; P < .001), and were more likely to have chronic limb-threatening ischemia (67.4% vs 47.6%; P < .001) than those without an outcome. Despite being at higher cardiovascular risk, they were less likely to receive acetylsalicylic acid or statins preoperatively and at discharge. Our best performing prediction model at the preoperative stage was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-0.93). In comparison, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.69). Our XGBoost model maintained excellent performance at the intra- and postoperative stages, with AUROCs of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.94) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.97-0.99), respectively. Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with Brier scores of 0.12 (preoperative), 0.11 (intraoperative), and 0.10 (postoperative). Of the top 10 predictors, nine were preoperative features including chronic limb-threatening ischemia, previous procedures, comorbidities, and functional status. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed ML models that accurately predict outcomes following suprainguinal bypass, performing better than logistic regression. Our algorithms have potential for important utility in guiding perioperative risk mitigation strategies to prevent adverse outcomes following suprainguinal bypass.

Artificial intelligence in the NICU to predict extubation success in prematurely born infants

OBJECTIVES

Mechanical ventilation in prematurely born infants, particularly if prolonged, can cause long term complications including bronchopulmonary dysplasia. Timely extubation then is essential, yet predicting its success remains challenging. Artificial intelligence (AI) may provide a potential solution.

CONTENT

A narrative review was undertaken to explore AI's role in predicting extubation success in prematurely born infants. Across the 11 studies analysed, the range of reported area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) for the selected prediction models was between 0.7 and 0.87. Only two studies implemented an external validation procedure. Comparison to the results of clinical predictors was made in two studies. One group reported a logistic regression model that outperformed clinical predictors on decision tree analysis, while another group reported clinical predictors outperformed their artificial neural network model (AUCs: ANN 0.68 vs. clinical predictors 0.86). Amongst the studies there was an heterogenous selection of variables for inclusion in prediction models, as well as variations in definitions of extubation failure.

SUMMARY

Although there is potential for AI to enhance extubation success, no model's performance has yet surpassed that of clinical predictors.

OUTLOOK

Future studies should incorporate external validation to increase the applicability of the models to clinical settings.

Predicting outcomes following lower extremity open revascularization using machine learning

Lower extremity open revascularization is a treatment option for peripheral artery disease that carries significant peri-operative risks; however, outcome prediction tools remain limited. Using machine learning (ML), we developed automated algorithms that predict 30-day outcomes following lower extremity open revascularization. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted vascular database was used to identify patients who underwent lower extremity open revascularization for chronic atherosclerotic disease between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 37 pre-operative demographic/clinical variables. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse limb event (MALE; composite of untreated loss of patency, major reintervention, or major amputation) or death. Our data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using tenfold cross-validation, we trained 6 ML models. Overall, 24,309 patients were included. The primary outcome of 30-day MALE or death occurred in 2349 (9.3%) patients. Our best performing prediction model was XGBoost, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) of 0.93 (0.92-0.94). The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.08. Our ML algorithm has potential for important utility in guiding risk mitigation strategies for patients being considered for lower extremity open revascularization to improve outcomes.

Central auditory test performance predicts future neurocognitive function in children living with and without HIV

Tests of the brain's ability to process complex sounds (central auditory tests) correlate with overall measures of neurocognitive performance. In the low- middle-income countries where resources to conduct detailed cognitive testing is limited, tests that assess the central auditory system may provide a novel and useful way to track neurocognitive performance. This could be particularly useful for children living with HIV (CLWH). To evaluate this, we administered central auditory tests to CLWH and children living without HIV and examined whether central auditory tests given early in a child's life could predict later neurocognitive performance. We used a machine learning technique to incorporate factors known to affect performance on neurocognitive tests, such as education. The results show that central auditory tests are useful predictors of neurocognitive performance and perform as well or in some cases better than factors such as education. Central auditory tests may offer an objective way to track neurocognitive performance in CLWH.

Using machine learning methods to analyze the association between urinary polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and chronic bowel disorders in American adults

The etiology of chronic bowel disorders is multifaceted, with environmental exposure to harmful substances potentially playing a significant role in their pathogenesis. However, research on the correlation between polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and chronic bowel disorders remains limited. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted in 2009-2010, we investigated the relationship between 9 PAHs and chronic diarrhea and constipation in U.S. adults. We employed unsupervised methods such as clustering and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify participants with similar exposure patterns. Additionally, we used supervised learning techniques, namely weighted quantile sum (WQS) and Bayesian kernel machine (BKMR) regressions, to assess the association between PAHs and the occurrence of chronic diarrhea and chronic constipation. PCA identified three principal components in the unsupervised analysis, explaining 86.5% of the total PAH variability. The first component displayed a mild association with chronic diarrhea, but no correlation with chronic constipation. Participants were divided into three clusters via K-means clustering, based on PAH concentrations. Clusters with higher PAH exposure demonstrated an increased odds ratio for chronic diarrhea, but no meaningful connection with chronic constipation. In the supervised analysis, the WQS regression underscored a positive relationship between the PAH mixture and chronic diarrhea, with three PAHs significantly impacting the mixture effect. The mixture index showed no correlation with chronic constipation. BKMR analysis illustrated a positive trend in the impact of four specific PAHs on chronic diarrhea, given other metabolites were fixed at their 50th percentiles. Our results suggest a clear association between higher PAH exposure and an increased risk of chronic diarrhea, but not chronic constipation. It also underscores the potential role of specific PAHs in contributing to the risk of chronic diarrhea.

Classification of chronic ankle instability using machine learning technique based on ankle kinematics during heel rise in delivery workers

Objective

Ankle injuries in delivery workers (DWs) are often caused by trips, and high recurrence rates of ankle sprains are related to chronic ankle instability (CAI). Heel rise requires joint angles and moments similar to those of the terminal stance phase of walking that the foot supinates. Thus, our study aimed to develop, determine, and compare the predictive performance of statistical machine learning models to classify DWs with and without CAI using ankle kinematics during heel rise.

Methods

In total, 203 DWs were screened for eligibility. Seven predictors were included in our study (age, work duration, body mass index, calcaneal stance position angle [CSPA] in the initial and terminal positions during heel rise, calcaneal movement during heel rise [CMHR], and plantar flexion angle during heel rise). Six machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, decision tree, AdaBoost, Extreme Gradient boosting machines, random forest, and support vector machine, were trained.

Results

The random forest model (area under the curve [AUC], 0.967 [excellent]; F1, 0.889; accuracy, 0.925) confirmed the best predictive performance in the test datasets among the six machine learning models. For Shapley Additive Explanations, old age, low CMHR, high CSPA in the initial position, high PFA, long work duration, low CSPA in the terminal position, and high body mass index were the most important predictors of CAI in the random forest model.

Conclusion

Ankle kinematics during heel rise can be considered in the classification of DWs with and without CAI.

CERAD-NAB and flexible battery based neuropsychological differentiation of Alzheimer's dementia and depression using machine learning approaches

Depression (DEP) and dementia of the Alzheimer's type (DAT) represent the most common neuropsychiatric disorders in elderly patients. Accurate differential diagnosis is indispensable to ensure appropriate treatment. However, DEP can yet mimic cognitive symptoms of DAT and patients with DAT often also present with depressive symptoms, impeding correct diagnosis. Machine learning (ML) approaches could eventually improve this discrimination using neuropsychological test data, but evidence is still missing. We therefore employed Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naïve Bayes (NB), Random Forest (RF) and conventional Logistic Regression (LR) to retrospectively predict the diagnoses of 189 elderly patients (68 DEP and 121 DAT) based on either the well-established Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease neuropsychological assessment battery (CERAD-NAB) or a flexible battery approach (FLEXBAT). The best performing combination consisted of FLEXBAT and NB, correctly classifying 87.0% of patients as either DAT or DEP. However, all accuracies were similar across algorithms and test batteries (83.0% - 87.0%). Accordingly, our study is the first to show that common ML algorithms with their default parameters can accurately differentiate between patients clinically diagnosed with DAT or DEP using neuropsychological test data, but do not necessarily outperform conventional LR.

Predictive value of texture analysis on lumbar MRI in patients with chronic low back pain

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to determine whether MRI texture analysis could predict the prognosis of patients with non-specific chronic low back pain.

METHODS

A prospective observational study was conducted on 100 patients with non-specific chronic low back pain, who underwent a conventional MRI, followed by rehabilitation treatment, and revisited after 6 months. Sociodemographic variables, numeric pain scale (NPS) value, and the degree of disability as measured by the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ), were collected. The MRI analysis included segmentation of regions of interest (vertebral endplates and intervertebral disks from L3-L4 to L5-S1, paravertebral musculature at the L4-L5 space) to extract texture variables (PyRadiomics software). The classification random forest algorithm was applied to identify individuals who would improve less than 30% in the NPS or would score more than 4 in the RMDQ at the end of the follow-up. Sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the ROC curve were calculated.

RESULTS

The final series included 94 patients. The predictive model for classifying patients whose pain did not improve by 30% or more offered a sensitivity of 0.86, specificity 0.57, and area under the ROC curve 0.71. The predictive model for classifying patients with a RMDQ score 4 or more offered a sensitivity of 0.83, specificity of 0.20, and area under the ROC curve of 0.52.

CONCLUSION

The texture analysis of lumbar MRI could help identify patients who are more likely to improve their non-specific chronic low back pain through rehabilitation programs, allowing a personalized therapeutic plan to be established.

Dual statistical models link baseline visual attention measure to risk for significant symptomatic concussion in sports

Aim

Athletic pre-season testing can establish functional baseline for comparison following concussion. Whether impacts of future concussions may be foretold by such testing is little known.

Materials & methods

Two sets of models for a significant burden of concussion were generated: a traditional approach using a series of logistic regressions, and a penalized regression approach using elastic net.

Results

3091 youth and adult athletes were baseline-assessed. 90 subsequently experienced concussion and 35 were still experiencing a significant burden of concussion when tested within two weeks. Both models associated prior history of head injury and visual attention-related metrics with a significant burden of concussion.

Conclusion

Pre-season testing of visual attention may identify athletes who are at risk for significant sports-related concussion.

Using machine learning to predict outcomes following open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

OBJECTIVE

Prediction of outcomes following open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair remains challenging with a lack of widely used tools to guide perioperative management. We developed machine learning (ML) algorithms that predict outcomes following open AAA repair.

METHODS

The Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database was used to identify patients who underwent elective open AAA repair between 2003 and 2023. Input features included 52 preoperative demographic/clinical variables. All available preoperative variables from VQI were used to maximize predictive performance. The primary outcome was in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death). Secondary outcomes were individual components of the primary outcome, other in-hospital complications, and 1-year mortality and any reintervention. We split our data into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, six ML models were trained using preoperative features (Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], random forest, Naïve Bayes classifier, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and logistic regression). The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. The top 10 predictive features in our final model were determined based on variable importance scores. Performance was assessed on subgroups based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, rurality, median area deprivation index, proximal clamp site, prior aortic surgery, and concomitant procedures.

RESULTS

Overall, 12,027 patients were included. The primary outcome of in-hospital MACE occurred in 630 patients (5.2%). Compared with patients without a primary outcome, those who developed in-hospital MACE were older with more comorbidities, demonstrated poorer functional status, had more complex aneurysms, and were more likely to require concomitant procedures. Our best performing prediction model for in-hospital MACE was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC of 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.94). Comparatively, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.73). For secondary outcomes, XGBoost achieved AUROCs between 0.84 and 0.94. The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.05. These findings highlight the excellent predictive performance of the XGBoost model. The top three predictive features in our algorithm for in-hospital MACE following open AAA repair were: (1) coronary artery disease; (2) American Society of Anesthesiologists classification; and (3) proximal clamp site. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Open AAA repair outcomes can be accurately predicted using preoperative data with our ML models, which perform better than logistic regression. Our automated algorithms can help guide risk-mitigation strategies for patients being considered for open AAA repair to improve outcomes.

Top-Down Proteomics of Human Saliva, Analyzed with Logistic Regression and Machine Learning Methods, Reveal Molecular Signatures of Ovarian Cancer

Ovarian cancer (OC) is the most lethal of all gynecological cancers. Due to vague symptoms, OC is mostly detected at advanced stages, with a 5-year survival rate (SR) of only 30%; diagnosis at stage I increases the 5-year SR to 90%, suggesting that early diagnosis is essential to cure OC. Currently, the clinical need for an early, reliable diagnostic test for OC screening remains unmet; indeed, screening is not even recommended for healthy women with no familial history of OC for fear of post-screening adverse events. Salivary diagnostics is considered a major resource for diagnostics of the future. In this work, we searched for OC biomarkers (BMs) by comparing saliva samples of patients with various stages of OC, breast cancer (BC) patients, and healthy subjects using an unbiased, high-throughput proteomics approach. We analyzed the results using both logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) for pattern analysis and variable selection to highlight molecular signatures for OC and BC diagnosis and possibly re-classification. Here, we show that saliva is an informative test fluid for an unbiased proteomic search of candidate BMs for identifying OC patients. Although we were not able to fully exploit the potential of ML methods due to the small sample size of our study, LR and ML provided patterns of candidate BMs that are now available for further validation analysis in the relevant population and for biochemical identification.

External validation of models for predicting cumulative live birth over multiple complete cycles of IVF treatment

STUDY QUESTION

Can two prediction models developed using data from 1999 to 2009 accurately predict the cumulative probability of live birth per woman over multiple complete cycles of IVF in an updated UK cohort?

SUMMARY ANSWER

After being updated, the models were able to estimate individualized chances of cumulative live birth over multiple complete cycles of IVF with greater accuracy.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

The McLernon models were the first to predict cumulative live birth over multiple complete cycles of IVF. They were converted into an online calculator called OPIS (Outcome Prediction In Subfertility) which has 3000 users per month on average. A previous study externally validated the McLernon models using a Dutch prospective cohort containing data from 2011 to 2014. With changes in IVF practice over time, it is important that the McLernon models are externally validated on a more recent cohort of patients to ensure that predictions remain accurate.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A population-based cohort of 91 035 women undergoing IVF in the UK between January 2010 and December 2016 was used for external validation. Data on frozen embryo transfers associated with these complete IVF cycles conducted from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2017 were also collected.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Data on IVF treatments were obtained from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA). The predictive performances of the McLernon models were evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed using the c-statistic and calibration was assessed using calibration-in-the-large, calibration slope, and calibration plots. Where any model demonstrated poor calibration in the validation cohort, the models were updated using intercept recalibration, logistic recalibration, or model revision to improve model performance.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Following exclusions, 91 035 women who underwent 144 734 complete cycles were included. The validation cohort had a similar distribution age profile to women in the development cohort. Live birth rates over all complete cycles of IVF per woman were higher in the validation cohort. After calibration assessment, both models required updating. The coefficients of the pre-treatment model were revised, and the updated model showed reasonable discrimination (c-statistic: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.68). After logistic recalibration, the post-treatment model showed good discrimination (c-statistic: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74 to 0.76). As an example, in the updated pre-treatment model, a 32-year-old woman with 2 years of primary infertility has a 42% chance of having a live birth in the first complete ICSI cycle and a 77% chance over three complete cycles. In a couple with 2 years of primary male factor infertility where a 30-year-old woman has 15 oocytes collected in the first cycle, a single fresh blastocyst embryo transferred in the first cycle and spare embryos cryopreserved, the estimated chance of live birth provided by the post-treatment model is 46% in the first complete ICSI cycle and 81% over three complete cycles.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Two predictors from the original models, duration of infertility and previous pregnancy, which were not available in the recent HFEA dataset, were imputed using data from the older cohort used to develop the models. The HFEA dataset does not contain some other potentially important predictors, e.g. BMI, ethnicity, race, smoking and alcohol intake in women, as well as measures of ovarian reserve such as antral follicle count.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Both updated models show improved predictive ability and provide estimates which are more reflective of current practice and patient case mix. The updated OPIS tool can be used by clinicians to help shape couples' expectations by informing them of their individualized chances of live birth over a sequence of multiple complete cycles of IVF.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This study was supported by an Elphinstone scholarship scheme at the University of Aberdeen and Aberdeen Fertility Centre, University of Aberdeen. S.B. has a commitment of research funding from Merck. D.J.M. and M.B.R. declare support for the present manuscript from Elphinstone scholarship scheme at the University of Aberdeen and Assisted Reproduction Unit at Aberdeen Fertility Centre, University of Aberdeen. D.J.M. declares grants received by University of Aberdeen from NHS Grampian, The Meikle Foundation, and Chief Scientist Office in the past 3 years. D.J.M. declares receiving an honorarium for lectures from Merck. D.J.M. is Associate Editor of Human Reproduction Open and Statistical Advisor for Reproductive BioMed Online. S.B. declares royalties from Cambridge University Press for a book. S.B. declares receiving an honorarium for lectures from Merck, Organon, Ferring, Obstetric and Gynaecological Society of Singapore, and Taiwanese Society for Reproductive Medicine. S.B. has received support from Merck, ESHRE, and Ferring for attending meetings as speaker and is on the METAFOR and CAPRE Trials Data Monitoring Committee.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Using machine learning to predict outcomes following carotid endarterectomy

OBJECTIVE

Prediction of outcomes following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) remains challenging, with a lack of standardized tools to guide perioperative management. We used machine learning (ML) to develop automated algorithms that predict outcomes following CEA.

METHODS

The Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database was used to identify patients who underwent CEA between 2003 and 2022. We identified 71 potential predictor variables (features) from the index hospitalization (43 preoperative [demographic/clinical], 21 intraoperative [procedural], and 7 postoperative [in-hospital complications]). The primary outcome was stroke or death at 1 year following CEA. Our data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, we trained six ML models using preoperative features (Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], random forest, Naïve Bayes classifier, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and logistic regression). The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). After selecting the best performing algorithm, additional models were built using intra- and postoperative data. Model robustness was evaluated using calibration plots and Brier scores. Performance was assessed on subgroups based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, insurance status, symptom status, and urgency of surgery.

RESULTS

Overall, 166,369 patients underwent CEA during the study period. In total, 7749 patients (4.7%) had the primary outcome of stroke or death at 1 year. Patients with an outcome were older with more comorbidities, had poorer functional status, and demonstrated higher risk anatomic features. They were also more likely to undergo intraoperative surgical re-exploration and have in-hospital complications. Our best performing prediction model at the preoperative stage was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC of 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.89-0.91). In comparison, logistic regression had an AUROC of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63-0.67), and existing tools in the literature demonstrate AUROCs ranging from 0.58 to 0.74. Our XGBoost models maintained excellent performance at the intra- and postoperative stages, with AUROCs of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.89-0.91) and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.93-0.95), respectively. Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with Brier scores of 0.15 (preoperative), 0.14 (intraoperative), and 0.11 (postoperative). Of the top 10 predictors, eight were preoperative features, including comorbidities, functional status, and previous procedures. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed ML models that accurately predict outcomes following CEA. Our algorithms perform better than logistic regression and existing tools, and therefore, have potential for important utility in guiding perioperative risk mitigation strategies to prevent adverse outcomes.

Automatic Variable Selection Algorithms in Prognostic Factor Research in Neck Pain

This study aims to compare the variable selection strategies of different machine learning (ML) and statistical algorithms in the prognosis of neck pain (NP) recovery. A total of 3001 participants with NP were included. Three dichotomous outcomes of an improvement in NP, arm pain (AP), and disability at 3 months follow-up were used. Twenty-five variables (twenty-eight parameters) were included as predictors. There were more parameters than variables, as some categorical variables had >2 levels. Eight modelling techniques were compared: stepwise regression based on unadjusted p values (stepP), on adjusted p values (stepPAdj), on Akaike information criterion (stepAIC), best subset regression (BestSubset) least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [LASSO], Minimax concave penalty (MCP), model-based boosting (mboost), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MuARS). The algorithm that selected the fewest predictors was stepPAdj (number of predictors, p = 4 to 8). MuARS was the algorithm with the second fewest predictors selected (p = 9 to 14). The predictor selected by all algorithms with the largest coefficient magnitude was "having undergone a neuroreflexotherapy intervention" for NP (β = from 1.987 to 2.296) and AP (β = from 2.639 to 3.554), and "Imaging findings: spinal stenosis" (β = from -1.331 to -1.763) for disability. Stepwise regression based on adjusted p-values resulted in the sparsest models, which enhanced clinical interpretability. MuARS appears to provide the optimal balance between model sparsity whilst retaining high predictive performance across outcomes. Different algorithms produced similar performances but resulted in a different number of variables selected. Rather than relying on any single algorithm, confidence in the variable selection may be increased by using multiple algorithms.

Risk Factors for Surgical Site Complications After Outpatient Lumbar Spine Surgery

Background: With the recent increase of minor lumbar spine surgeries being performed in the outpatient setting, there is a need for information on factors that contribute to post-operative complications for these surgeries. Patients and Methods: This was a prospective observational study examining risk factors for self-reported post-operative drainage in patients who underwent lumbar spine surgery. Patient surveys and the hospital's electronic medical records were used to collect data on patient demographic, patient lifestyle, and surgical variables. Univariable and multivariable analyses in addition to a random forest classifier were performed. Results: A total of 146 patients were enrolled in the study with 111 patients included in the final analysis. The average age and body mass index (BMI) of these patients was 66 and 27.8, respectively. None of the 146 patients in this study developed surgical site infection. Older age, no steroid use, no pet ownership, and spine surgery involving two or more levels were all found to be risk factors for wound drainage. Conclusions: This study evaluated lifestyle, environmental, and traditional risk factors for surgical site drainage that have not been explored cohesively related to outpatient orthopedic surgery. Consistent with the existing literature, outpatient spine surgery involving two or more levels was most strongly associated with surgical site drainage after surgery.

Estimating postoperative mortality in colorectal surgery- a systematic review of risk prediction models

PURPOSE

Risk prediction models are frequently used to support decision-making in colorectal surgery but can be inaccurate. Machine learning (ML) is becoming increasingly popular, and its application may increase predictive accuracy. We compared conventional risk prediction models for postoperative mortality (based on regression analysis) with ML models to determine the benefit of the latter approach.

METHODS

The study was registered in PROSPERO(CRD42022364753). Following the PRISMA guidelines, a systematic search of three databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, WoS) was conducted (from 1/1/2000 to 29/09/2022). Studies were included if they reported the development of a risk model to estimate short-term postoperative mortality for patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Discrimination and calibration performance metrics were compared. Studies were evaluated against CHARMS and TRIPOD criteria.

RESULTS

3,052 articles were screened, and 45 studies were included. The total sample size was 1,356,058 patients. Six studies used ML techniques for model development. Most studies (n = 42) reported the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) as a measure of discrimination. There was no significant difference in the mean AUROC values between regression models (0.833 s.d. ± 0.52) and ML (0.846 s.d. ± 0.55), p = 0.539. Calibration statistics, which measure the agreement between predicted estimates and observed outcomes, were less consistent. Risk of bias assessment found most concerns in the data handling and analysis domains of eligible studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed comparable predictive performance between regression and ML methods in colorectal surgery. Integration of ML in colorectal risk prediction is promising but further refinement of the models is required to support routine clinical adoption.

American College of Surgeons NSQIP Risk Calculator Accuracy Using a Machine Learning Algorithm Compared with Regression

BACKGROUND

The American College of Surgeons NSQIP risk calculator (RC) uses regression to make predictions for fourteen 30-day surgical outcomes. While this approach provides accurate (discrimination and calibration) risk estimates, they might be improved by machine learning (ML). To investigate this possibility, accuracy for regression-based risk estimates were compared to estimates from an extreme gradient boosting (XGB)-ML algorithm.

STUDY DESIGN

A cohort of 5,020,713 million NSQIP patient records was randomly divided into 80% for model construction and 20% for validation. Risk predictions using regression and XGB-ML were made for 13 RC binary 30-day surgical complications and one continuous outcome (length of stay [LOS]). For the binary outcomes, discrimination was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC), and calibration was evaluated using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Mean squared error and a calibration curve analog were evaluated for the continuous LOS outcome.

RESULTS

For every binary outcome, discrimination (AUROC and AUPRC) was slightly greater for XGB-ML than for regression (mean [across the outcomes] AUROC was 0.8299 vs 0.8251, and mean AUPRC was 0.1558 vs 0.1476, for XGB-ML and regression, respectively). For each outcome, miscalibration was greater (larger Hosmer-Lemeshow values) with regression; there was statistically significant miscalibration for all regression-based estimates, but only for 4 of 13 when XGB-ML was used. For LOS, mean squared error was lower for XGB-ML.

CONCLUSIONS

XGB-ML provided more accurate risk estimates than regression in terms of discrimination and calibration. Differences in calibration between regression and XGB-ML were of substantial magnitude and support transitioning the RC to XGB-ML.

Explainable Machine Learning Techniques To Predict Amiodarone-Induced Thyroid Dysfunction Risk: Multicenter, Retrospective Study With External Validation

BACKGROUND

Machine learning offers new solutions for predicting life-threatening, unpredictable amiodarone-induced thyroid dysfunction. Traditional regression approaches for adverse-effect prediction without time-series consideration of features have yielded suboptimal predictions. Machine learning algorithms with multiple data sets at different time points may generate better performance in predicting adverse effects.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models for forecasting individualized amiodarone-induced thyroid dysfunction risk and to optimize a machine learning-based risk stratification scheme with a resampling method and readjustment of the clinically derived decision thresholds.

METHODS

This study developed machine learning models using multicenter, delinked electronic health records. It included patients receiving amiodarone from January 2013 to December 2017. The training set was composed of data from Taipei Medical University Hospital and Wan Fang Hospital, while data from Taipei Medical University Shuang Ho Hospital were used as the external test set. The study collected stationary features at baseline and dynamic features at the first, second, third, sixth, ninth, 12th, 15th, 18th, and 21st months after amiodarone initiation. We used 16 machine learning models, including extreme gradient boosting, adaptive boosting, k-nearest neighbor, and logistic regression models, along with an original resampling method and 3 other resampling methods, including oversampling with the borderline-synthesized minority oversampling technique, undersampling-edited nearest neighbor, and over- and undersampling hybrid methods. The model performance was compared based on accuracy; Precision, recall, F₁-score, geometric mean, area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). Feature importance was determined by the best model. The decision threshold was readjusted to identify the best cutoff value and a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed.

RESULTS

The training set contained 4075 patients from Taipei Medical University Hospital and Wan Fang Hospital, of whom 583 (14.3%) developed amiodarone-induced thyroid dysfunction, while the external test set included 2422 patients from Taipei Medical University Shuang Ho Hospital, of whom 275 (11.4%) developed amiodarone-induced thyroid dysfunction. The extreme gradient boosting oversampling machine learning model demonstrated the best predictive outcomes among all 16 models. The accuracy; Precision, recall, F₁-score, G-mean, AUPRC, and AUROC were 0.923, 0.632, 0.756, 0.688, 0.845, 0.751, and 0.934, respectively. After readjusting the cutoff, the best value was 0.627, and the F₁-score reached 0.699. The best threshold was able to classify 286 of 2422 patients (11.8%) as high-risk subjects, among which 275 were true-positive patients in the testing set. A shorter treatment duration; higher levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; and lower levels of free thyroxin, alkaline phosphatase, and low-density lipoprotein were the most important features.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning models combined with resampling methods can predict amiodarone-induced thyroid dysfunction and serve as a support tool for individualized risk prediction and clinical decision support.

Early prediction of 30- and 14-day all-cause unplanned readmissions

BACKGROUND

An unplanned readmission is a dual metric for both the cost and quality of medical care.

METHODS

We employed the random forest (RF) method to build a prediction model using a large dataset from patients' electronic health records (EHRs) from a medical center in Taiwan. The discrimination abilities between the RF and regression-based models were compared using the areas under the ROC curves (AUROC).

RESULTS

When compared with standardized risk prediction tools, the RF constructed using data readily available at admission had a marginally yet significantly better ability to identify high-risk readmissions within 30 and 14 days without compromising sensitivity and specificity. The most important predictor for 30-day readmissions was directly related to the representing factors of index hospitalization, whereas for 14-day readmissions the most important predictor was associated with a higher chronic illness burden.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying dominant risk factors based on index admission and different readmission time intervals is crucial for healthcare planning.

Machine learning versus binomial logistic regression analysis for fall risk based on SPPB scores in older adult outpatients

Objective

To compare the performance of the diagnostic model for fall risk based on the short physical performance battery (SPPB) developed using commercial machine learning software (MLS) and binomial logistic regression analysis (BLRA).

Methods

We enrolled 797 out of 850 outpatients who visited the clinic between March 2016 and November 2021. Patients were categorized into the development (n = 642) and validation (n = 155) datasets. Age, sex, number of comorbidities, number of medications, body mass index (BMI), calf circumference (left-right average), handgrip strength (left-right average), total SPPB score, and history of falls were determined. We defined fall risk by an SPPB score of ≤6 in men and ≤9 in women. The main metrics used for evaluating the machine learning model and BLRA were the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, precision, recall (sensitivity), specificity, and F-measure. The commercial MLS automatically calculates the parameter range of the highest contribution.

Results

The participants included 797 outpatients (mean age, 76.3 years; interquartile range, 73.0-81.0; 288 men). The metrics of the current diagnostic model in the commercial MLS were as follows: AUC = 0.78, accuracy = 0.74, precision = 0.46, recall (sensitivity) = 0.81, specificity = 0.71, F-measure = 0.59. The metrics of the current diagnostic model in the BLRA were as follows: AUC = 0.77, accuracy = 0.75, precision = 0.47, recall (sensitivity) = 0.67, specificity = 0.77, F-measure = 0.55. The risk factors for falls in older adult outpatients were handgrip strength, female sex, experience of falls, BMI, and calf circumference in the commercial MLS.

Conclusions

The diagnostic model for fall risk based on SPPB scores constructed using commercial MLS is noninferior to BLRA.

Machine Learning Approach for Metabolic Syndrome Diagnosis Using Explainable Data-Augmentation-Based Classification

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of risk factors including hypertension, hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, and abdominal obesity. Metabolism-related risk factors include diabetes and heart disease. MetS is also linked to numerous cancers and chronic kidney disease. All of these variables raise medical costs. Developing a prediction model that can quickly identify persons at high risk of MetS and offer them a treatment plan is crucial. Early prediction of metabolic syndrome will highly impact the quality of life of patients as it gives them a chance for making a change to the bad habit and preventing a serious illness in the future. In this paper, we aimed to assess the performance of various algorithms of machine learning in order to decrease the cost of predictive diagnoses of metabolic syndrome. We employed ten machine learning algorithms along with different metaheuristics for feature selection. Moreover, we examined the effects of data augmentation in the prediction accuracy. The statistics show that the augmentation of data after applying feature selection on the data highly improves the performance of the classifiers.

Should we adopt a prognosis-based approach to unexplained infertility?

The treatment of unexplained infertility is a contentious topic that continues to attract a great deal of interest amongst clinicians, patients and policy makers. The inability to identify an underlying pathology makes it difficult to devise effective treatments for this condition. Couples with unexplained infertility can conceive on their own and any proposed intervention needs to offer a better chance of having a baby. Over the years, several prognostic and prediction models based on routinely collected clinical data have been developed, but these are not widely used by clinicians and patients. In this opinion paper, we propose a prognosis-based approach such that a decision to access treatment is based on the estimated chances of natural and treatment-related conception, which, in the same couple, can change over time. This approach avoids treating all couples as a homogeneous group and minimizes unnecessary treatment whilst ensuring access to those who need it early.