Intrinsic properties of Sahel precipitation anomalies and rainfall

A novel approach for forecasting PM2.5 pollution in Delhi using CATALYST

Air pollution is one of the main environmental issues in densely populated urban areas like Delhi. Predictions of the PM2.5 concentration must be accurate for pollution reduction strategies and policy actions to succeed. This research article presents a novel approach for forecasting PM2.5 pollution in Delhi by combining a pre-trained CNN model with a transformer-based model called CATALYST (Convolutional and Transformer model for Air Quality Forecasting). This proposed strategy uses a mixture of the two models. To derive attributes of the PM2.5 timeline of data, a pre-existing CNN model is utilized to transform the data into visual representations, which are analyzed subsequently. The CATALYST model is trained to predict future PM2.5 pollution levels using a sliding window training approach on extracted features. The model is utilized for analyzing temporal dependencies in PM2.5 time-series data. This model incorporates the advancements in the transformer-based architecture initially designed for natural language processing applications. CATALYST combines positional encoding with the Transformer architecture to capture intricate patterns and variations resulting from diverse meteorological, geographical, and anthropogenic factors. In addition, an innovative approach is suggested for building input-output couples, intending to address the problem of missing or partial data in environmental time-series datasets while ensuring that all training data blocks are comprehensive. On a PM2.5 dataset, we analyze the proposed CATALYST model and compare its performance with other standard time-series forecasting approaches, such as ARIMA and LSTM. The outcomes of the experiments demonstrate that the suggested model works better than conventional methods and is a potential strategy for accurately forecasting PM2.5 pollution. The applicability of CATALYST to real-world scenarios can be tested by running more experiments on real-world datasets. This can help develop efficient pollution mitigation measures, impacting public health and environmental sustainability.

Scaling Behavior of Peat Properties during the Holocene: A Case Study from Central European Russia

A better understanding of past climate change is vital to our ability to predict possible future environmental dynamics. This study attempts to investigate the dynamic features of the temporal variability of peat humification, water table depth and air temperature by analyzing palaeoecological data from the Valdai Uplands region (Central European Russia). The regression analysis revealed the presence of a periodicity of about 6000 years in the reconstructed peat humification timeseries. Nonlinear analysis showed that humification time variability, water table depth and air temperature exhibit persistent long-range correlations of 1/f type. This indicates that a fluctuation in these variables in the past is very likely to be followed by a similar one in the future, but is magnified by 1/f power-law. In addition, it dictates that humification, water table depth and temperature are key parameters of a system that implies the existence of a special structure, such as self-organized criticality, operating close to a minimum stability configuration, and achieves it without any fine adjustment by external forcing. These conclusions point to new avenues for modeling future ecosystem disturbances and, in particular, for predicting relevant extreme events.

Atmospheric pollution in the ten most populated US cities. Evidence of persistence

The degree of persistence in daily PM₂₅ and O₃ in the ten most populated US cities, namely New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas and San Jose is examined in this work. We employ a methodology based on fractional integration, using the order of integration as a measure of the degree of persistence. Using data for the time period from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2020, our results indicate that fractional integration and long memory features are both present in all the examined cases, with the integration order of the series being constrained in the (0, 1) interval. Based on this, the estimation of the coefficients for the time trend produces results which are substantially different from those obtained under the I (0) assumption.

COVID-19 pandemic decision support system for a population defense strategy and vaccination effectiveness

The year 2020 ended with a significant COVID-19 pandemic, which traumatized almost many countries where the lockdowns were restored, and numerous emotional social protests erupted. According to the World Health Organization, the global epidemiological situation in the first months of 2021 deteriorated. In this paper, the decision-making supporting system (DMSS) is proposed to be an epidemiological prediction tool. COVID-19 trends in several countries and regions, take into account the big data clouds for important geophysical and socio-ecological characteristics and the expected potentials of the medical service, including vaccination and restrictions on population migration both within the country and international traffic. These parameters for numerical simulations are estimated from officially delivered data that allows the verification of theoretical results. The numerical simulations of the transition and the results of COVID-19 are mainly based on the deterministic approach and the algorithm for processing statistical data based on the instability indicator. DMSS has been shown to help predict the effects of COVID-19 depending on the protection strategies against COVID-19 including vaccination. Numerical simulations have shown that DMSS provides results using accompanying information in the appropriate scenario.

Diagnostic model for the society safety under COVID-19 pandemic conditions

The aim of this paper is to develop an information-modeling method for assessing and predicting the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, a detailed analysis of official statistical information provided by global and national organizations is carried out. The developed method is based on the algorithm of multi-channel big data processing considering the demographic and socio-economic information. COVID-19 data are analyzed using an instability indicator and a system of differential equations that describe the dynamics of four groups of people: susceptible, infected, recovered and dead. Indicators of the global sustainable development in various sectors are considered to analyze COVID-19 data. Stochastic processes induced by COVID-19 are assessed with the instability indicator showing the level of stability of official data and the reduction of the level of uncertainty. It turns out that the number of deaths is rising with the Human Development Index. It is revealed that COVID-19 divides the global population into three groups according to the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and the number of infected people. The prognosis for the number of infected people in December 2020 and January-February 2021 shows negative events which will decrease slowly.

Optical Spectral Tools for Diagnosing Water Media Quality: A Case Study on the Angara/Yenisey River System in the Siberian Region

This paper presents the results of spectral optical measurements of hydrochemical characteristics in the Angara/Yenisei river system (AYRS) extending from Lake Baikal to the estuary of the Yenisei River. For the first time, such large-scale observations were made as part of a joint American-Russian expedition in July and August of 1995, when concentrations of radionuclides, heavy metals, and oil hydrocarbons were assessed. The results of this study were obtained as part of the Russian hydrochemical expedition in July and August, 2019. For in situ measurements and sampling at 14 sampling sites, three optical spectral instruments and appropriate software were used, including big data processing algorithms and an AYRS simulation model. The results show that the water quality in AYRS has improved slightly due to the reasonably reduced anthropogenic industrial impact. Chemical concentrations in water have been found to vary along the Angara River depending on the location of the dams. The results of in situ measurements and modeling evaluations are given. To overcome the uncertainties in the data caused by the large monitoring area, it is recommended to use the combined AYRS simulation model and the universal 8-channel spectrophotometer installed on a fixed platform for continuous monitoring.

The Signature of the Coronavirus Lockdown in Air Pollution in Greece

The change in atmospheric pollution from a public lockdown in Greece introduced to curb the spread of the COVID-19 is examined based on ground-based and satellite observations. The results showed that in most cases, the change in atmospheric pollution is not statistically significant. It is probably an artifact of the meteorological conditions that contributed significantly to the long-range transport of air pollutants over Greece during the shutdown period.

Analysis of Long-Term Variations of Drought Characteristics Using Standardized Precipitation Index over Zambia

This study examines long-term spatial and temporal trends of drought characteristics based on the Standardized Precipitation Index at three different time scales (3, 6, and 12 months) over Zambia from 1981 to 2017. Drought characteristic conditions such as duration, severity, and intensity at monthly, seasonal, and annual levels were analyzed to investigate the drought patterns over Zambia. The results show a significant increase in drought events over the southwestern regions and a decrease over the northeastern regions. It is in this regard that two stations from different locations (southwest and northeast) were analyzed. The results show increasing trends of drought over Sesheke (southwest) and decreasing trends over Kasama (northeast). More drought impacts are felt over southern compared to northern areas, which poses a serious concern to both agriculture and hydrological industries over the drought-prone areas of Southern Zambia. However, the analysis further shows that droughts were more intense, persistent, and severe over the southwest, while moderate droughts were found in some few areas of Northeast Zambia. The Mann–Kendall test trend and slope indicated that both annual and seasonal drought have increased. However, drought increment at an annual level shows a low magnitude as compared to the seasonal level. This suggested the importance of evaluating drought at an interannual and seasonal time scale over Zambia. Specifically, the drought increased determinedly before 2010 and became erratic between 2010 and 2017 with considerable regional variation. Zambia experienced moderate to severe droughts during 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2006–2005, and 2015–2016, which resulted in serious damages to the environment and society. According to the findings of this study, it is suggested that the implications of drought can be managed by creating strategies and adaptation measures.

A New Passive Microwave Tool for Operational Forest Fires Detection: A Case Study of Siberia in 2019

The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for early detection of forest fires, especially in forest zones prone to fires using microwave remote sensing and information-modeling tools. A decision-making system is developed as a tool for operational coupled analysis of modeling results and remote sensing data. The main operating structure of this system has blocks that calculate the moisture of forest canopy, the soil-litter layer, and the forest physical temperature using the observed brightness temperature provided by the flying platform IL-18 equipped with passive microwave radiometers of 1.43, 13.3 and 37.5 GHz frequencies. The hydrological parameters of the forest are assessed with both a developed regional hydrological model and remote sensing observations. The hydrological model allows for the detection of fire-prone zones that are subject to remote sensing when modeling results are corrected and thermal temperatures are evaluated. An approach for the real time forest fires classification via daytime remote sensing observations is proposed. The relative theoretical and experimental results presented here have allowed us to use a new approach to forests monitoring during periods of potential fire. A decision-making algorithm is presented that aims at analyzing data flows from radiometers located on the remote sensing platform to calculate the probability of forest fire occurring in geographical pixels. As case study, the state of forest fires that occurred in Siberia in 2019 using microwave remote sensing measurements conducted by a flying IL-18 laboratory is presented. This remote sensing platform is equipped with optical and microwave tools that allow the optical and microwave images of the observed forest areas. The main operating frequencies of microwave radiometers are 1.43, 13.3 and 37.5 GHz. Microwave radiometers provide data on water content in the forest canopy and on litter and physical temperatures. Based on the long-term measurements made in Siberia, the possible improvement of the proposed decision-making system for future relevant studies is discussed in detail. The basic idea of cost-effective monitoring of forested areas consists of a two-stage exploration of fire risk zones. The first monitoring stage is performed using the hydrological model of the study area to identify low moisture areas of the forest canopy and litter. The second stage of monitoring is conducted using the remote sensing platform only in the local fire-dangerous areas in order to more precisely identify the areas prone to fire and to detect and diagnose real burning zones. The developed algorithm allows the calculation of physical temperatures and the detection of temperature anomalies based on measured brightness temperatures. Finally, the spatial distribution of the probability of forest fire occurrence is given as an example of the decision-making system along with a comparison of this distribution with the satellite images provided by the EOSDIS Land data.

Future Temperature Extremes Will Be More Harmful: A New Critical Factor for Improved Forecasts

There is increasing evidence that extreme weather events such as frequent and intense cold spells and heat waves cause unprecedented deaths and diseases in both developed and developing countries. Thus, they require extensive and immediate research to limit the risks involved. Average temperatures in Europe in June-July 2019 were the hottest ever measured and attributed to climate change. The problem, however, of a thorough study of natural climate change is the lack of experimental data from the long past, where anthropogenic activity was then very limited. Today, this problem can be successfully resolved using, inter alia, biological indicators that have provided reliable environmental information for thousands of years in the past. The present study used high-resolution quantitative reconstruction data derived from biological records of Lake Silvaplana sediments covering the period 1181-1945. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a slight temperature change in the past could trigger current or future intense temperature change or changes. Modern analytical tools were used for this purpose, which eventually showed that temperature fluctuations were persistent. That is, they exhibit long memory with scaling behavior, which means that an increase (decrease) in temperature in the past was always followed by another increase (decrease) in the future with multiple amplitudes. Therefore, the increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme temperature events due to climate change will be more pronounced than expected. This will affect human well-being and mortality more than that estimated in today's modeling scenarios. The scaling property detected here can be used for more accurate monthly to decadal forecasting of extreme temperature events. Thus, it is possible to develop improved early warning systems that will reduce the public health risk at local, national, and international levels.

Comparison of GCM Precipitation Predictions with Their RMSEs and Pattern Correlation Coefficients

This study evaluated 20 general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provide the prediction results for the period of 2006 to 2014, the period from which the observation data (the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data) are available. Both the GCM predictions of precipitation and the GPCP data were compared for three data structures—the global, zonal, and grid mean—with conventional statistics like the root mean square error (RMSE) and the pattern correlation coefficient of the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). As a result, it was possible to select a GCM which showed the best performance among the 20 GCMs considered in this study. Overall, the NorSM1-M model was found to be the most similar to the GPCP data. Additionally, the IPSL-CM5A-LR, BCC-CSM, and GFDL-CMS models were also found to be quite similar to the GPCP data.

The Earth's Population Can Reach 14 Billion in the 23rd Century without Significant Adverse Effects on Survivability

This paper presents the results obtained from the study of the sustainable state between nature and human society on a global scale, focusing on the most critical interactions between the natural and anthropogenic processes. Apart from the conventional global models, the basic tool employed herein is the newly proposed complex model entitled “nature-society system (NSS) model”, through which a reliable modeling of the processes taking place in the global climate-nature-society system (CNSS) is achieved. This universal tool is mainly based on the information technology that allows the adaptive conformance of the parametric and functional space of this model. The structure of this model includes the global biogeochemical cycles, the hydrological cycle, the demographic processes and a simple climate model. In this model, the survivability indicator is used as a criterion for the survival of humanity, which defines a trend in the dynamics of the total biomass of the biosphere, taking into account the trends of the biocomplexity dynamics of the land and hydrosphere ecosystems. It should be stressed that there are no other complex global models comparable to those of the CNSS model developed here. The potential of this global model is demonstrated through specific examples in which the classification of the terrestrial ecosystem is accomplished by separating 30 soil-plant formations for geographic pixels 4° × 5°. In addition, humanity is considered to be represented by three groups of economic development status (high, transition, developing) and the World Ocean is parameterized by three latitude zones (low, middle, high). The modelling results obtained show the dynamics of the CNSS at the beginning of the 23rd century, according to which the world population can reach the level of 14 billion without the occurrence of major negative impacts.

Impacts of air pollution and climate on materials in Athens, Greece

Abstract. For more than 10 years now the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece, has contributed to the UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) ICP Materials (International Co-operative Programme on Effects on Materials including Historic and Cultural Monuments) programme for monitoring the corrosion/soiling levels of different kinds of materials due to environmental air-quality parameters. In this paper we present the results obtained from the analysis of observational data that were collected in Athens during the period 2003–2012. According to these results, the corrosion/soiling of the particular exposed materials tends to decrease over the years, except for the case of copper. Based on this long experimental database that is applicable to the multi-pollutant situation in the Athens basin, we present dose–response functions (DRFs) considering that dose stands for the air pollutant concentration, response for the material mass loss (normally per annum) and function, the relationship derived by the best statistical fit to the data.

Drought analysis for Kuwait using standardized precipitation index

Implementation of adequate measures to assess and monitor droughts is recognized as a major matter challenging researchers involved in water resources management. The objective of this study is to assess the hydrologic drought characteristics from the historical rainfall records of Kuwait with arid environment by employing the criterion of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). A wide range of monthly total precipitation data from January 1967 to December 2009 is used for the assessment. The computation of the SPI series is performed for intermediate- and long-time scales of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. The drought severity and duration are also estimated. The bivariate probability distribution for these two drought characteristics is constructed by using Clayton copula. It has been shown that the drought SPI series for the time scales examined have no systematic trend component but a seasonal pattern related to rainfall data. The results are used to perform univariate and bivariate frequency analyses for the drought events. The study will help evaluating the risk of future droughts in the region, assessing their consequences on economy, environment, and society, and adopting measures for mitigating the effect of droughts.