A new scoring system to predict Kawasaki disease with coronary artery lesions

Risk Factors for Intravenous Immunoglobulin Non-responsiveness and Coronary Ectasia in Korean Patients With Kawasaki Disease

We aimed to determine the risk factors for non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) and coronary ectasia in Korean children with Kawasaki disease (KD) and compare the efficacy of previously published Japanese and Chinese risk scoring systems in the same cohort. We retrospectively reviewed 459 KD cases diagnosed from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2022. Age (odds ratio [OR]: 0.983; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.968-0.999), change in extremities (OR: 3.308; 95% CI: 1.530-7.151), neutrophils (OR: 1.078; 95% CI: 1.049-1.108), and alanine aminotransferase (OR: 1.002; 95% CI: 1.000-1.004) were identified as independent risk factors for IVIG non-responsiveness, and age (OR: 0.945; 95% CI: 0.902-0.989), C-reactive protein (OR: 1.092; 95% CI: 1.004-1.188), and creatinine kinase (OR: 1.004; 95% CI: 1.001-1.006) were identified as independent risk factors for coronary ectasia. Among previously published risk scoring systems, the Egami (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC]: 0.695; 95% CI: 0.651-0.737) for IVIG non-responsiveness and the Tang score (AUC: 0.726; 95% CI: 0.578-0.874) for coronary ectasia showed the highest predictive value for our study cohort.

Incidence of coronary artery lesions in children with recurrent Kawasaki disease

OBJECTIVE

Coronary artery lesions (CALs) are a major complication of Kawasaki disease (KD); however, data on CAL incidence and risk factors in recurrent KD are limited.

METHODS

Ninety-seven children with recurrent KD were retrospectively enrolled from 2013 to 2022, and CAL incidence was tracked during admission, discharge, and during follow-up.

RESULTS

Initially, 27.8% had CAL at admission and discharge, declining to 7.2% at 12 months post-discharge. Most patients (66 of 97, 68.0%) did not exhibit CAL at any of the time points, 7 cases presented CAL at all time points, indicating a persistent CAL. The remaining 20 cases presented CAL at admission but recovered at discharge or during follow-up. Notably, transient CALs had presented at discharge, or during the follow-up, but finally resolved at 12 months after discharge. Notably, prior IVIG resistance and increased prothrombin time seemed associated with CAL in recurrent KD, suggesting they could help identify patients needing close monitoring.

CONCLUSION

The study highlights decreasing CAL incidence over time in recurrent KD but with diverse patterns, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and further investigations to confirm these findings.

Prediction of coronary artery lesions in children with Kawasaki syndrome based on machine learning

OBJECTIVE

Kawasaki syndrome (KS) is an acute vasculitis that affects children < 5 years of age and leads to coronary artery lesions (CAL) in about 20-25% of untreated cases. Machine learning (ML) is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) that integrates complex data sets on a large scale and uses huge data to predict future events. The purpose of the present study was to use ML to present the model for early risk assessment of CAL in children with KS by different algorithms.

METHODS

A total of 158 children were enrolled from Women and Children's Hospital, Qingdao University, and divided into 70-30% as the training sets and the test sets for modeling and validation studies. There are several classifiers are constructed for models including the random forest (RF), the logistic regression (LR), and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Data preprocessing is analyzed before applying the classifiers to modeling. To avoid the problem of overfitting, the 5-fold cross validation method was used throughout all the data.

RESULTS

The area under the curve (AUC) of the RF model was 0.925 according to the validation of the test set. The average accuracy was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.905 to 0.956). The AUC of the LG model was 0.888 and the average accuracy was 0.893 (95% CI, 0,837 to 0.950). The AUC of the XGBoost model was 0.879 and the average accuracy was 0.935 (95% CI, 0.891 to 0.980).

CONCLUSION

The RF algorithm was used in the present study to construct a prediction model for CAL effectively, with an accuracy of 0.930 and AUC of 0.925. The novel model established by ML may help guide clinicians in the initial decision to make a more aggressive initial anti-inflammatory therapy. Due to the limitations of external validation and regional population characteristics, additional research is required to initiate a further application in the clinic.

Prediction nomogram for coronary artery aneurysms at one month in Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Coronary status at one month after Kawasaki disease (KD) onset had a great significance. The present study aimed to establish a prediction model for coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) at one month in children with KD.

METHODS

Patients with a diagnosis of KD between May 2017 and Dec 2018 were enrolled as the development cohort to build a prediction model. The model was validated by internal and external validation. Patients between Jan 2019 and Dec 2019 were enrolled as the validation cohort. The adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to select the possible predictors. Receiving operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The performance of the Son score was also assessed.

RESULTS

LASSO regression demonstrated that age, sex, and CALs in the acute stage were predictors for CAA at one month. The area under the ROC (AUC) was 0.946 (95% confidence interval: 0.911-0.980) with a sensitivity of 92.5% and a specificity of 90.5%. The calibration curve and the DCA showed a favorable diagnostic performance. The internal and external validation proved the reliability of the prediction model. The AUC of our model and the Son score were 0.941 and 0.860, respectively (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our prediction model for CAA at one month after disease onset in KD had an excellent predictive utility.

Nomogram for predicting coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery lesions are the most important complications of Kawasaki disease. Approximately 25-30% of untreated patients develop coronary artery disease, which can lead to long-term cardiovascular sequelae.

AIM

The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk factors for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease and to construct a nomogram for predicting the likelihood of developing such lesions.

METHODS

Data from 599 patients between January 2012 and June 2020 were reviewed retrospectively. Patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 450) and the validation set (n = 149). A comparison of clinical features and laboratory data was performed, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify independent risk factors and develop the nomogram. The predictive efficiency of the nomogram was evaluated using the calibration curve, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-index, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance, delayed IVIG treatment, C-reactive protein, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio were identified as independent risk factors for the development of coronary artery lesions. The nomogram was constructed based on these four variables. The calibration curve of the nomogram showed a high degree of agreement between the predicted probability and the actual probability. The AUC of the nomogram in the training and validation set was 0.790 and 0.711, respectively. In addition, DCA revealed that the nomogram provided a significant net benefit, further supporting its clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

The constructed nomogram demonstrates a strong and reliable performance in predicting coronary artery lesions, which enables clinicians to make timely and tailored clinical decisions.

Clinical indicators combined with S100A12/TLR2 signaling molecules to establish a new scoring model for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease

Coronary artery lesions (CALs) are the most common and serious complication of Kawasaki disease (KD), and the pathogenesis is unknown. Exploring KD-specific biomarkers and related risk factors is significant for clinical diagnosis and treatment. This study aimed to explore the feasibility of combining clinical indicators with S100A12/TLR2-associated signaling molecules for the predictive modeling of CALs in KD. A total of 346 patients (224 males and 122 females) with KD who visited the rheumatology department of Wuhan Children's Hospital between April 2022 and March 2025 were enrolled and divided into two groups according to the presence or absence of CALS (292 patients had CALs and 54 patients did not). Forty-one variables were collected from the two groups, including demographic characteristics, clinical manifestations, and laboratory data. Single nucleated cells from each patient were extracted, and the expression of the S100A12/TLR2 signal transduction-related molecules S100A12, TLR2, MYD88, and NF-κB were detected by real-time fluorescent quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Statistically significant variables were subjected to logistic regression analysis to determine the independent risk factors for KD with CALs, and a new risk score model was established to assess the predictive efficacy based on receiver operating characteristic curves. Sixteen variables significantly differed between the no-CALs and CALs groups: gender, fever duration, white blood cells (WBC), hemoglobin (HGB), Ce reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin, serum ferritin (SF), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), fibrinogen (FIB), aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AST/ALT), serum albumin (ALB), sodium (Na), Interleukin (IL-10), tumor necrosis factor (TNF-α), S100 calcium binding protein A12 (S100A12), and Myeloid Differentiation Factor 88 (MYD88) (p < 0.05). After performing a univariate analysis, 12 variables (gender, fever duration, WBC, HGB, CRP, SF, ESR, FIB, AST/ALT, ALB, Na, and S100A12) were included in the multifactorial binary logistic regression, which showed that fever duration ≥ 6.5 days, ESR ≥ 46.5 mm/h, AST/ALT ≤ 1.51, and S100A12 ≥ 10.02 were independent risk factors for KD with CALs and were assigned scores of 3, 2, 1, and 2, respectively, according to the odds ratio (OR). The total score of each patient was counted, and a new prediction model for KD combined with CALs was established, where < 3.5 was considered low risk and ≥ 3.5 was regarded as high risk; the sensitivity, specificity, Jorden index, and area under the curve of this scoring system were 0.667, 0.836, 0.502, and 0.838, respectively. This new scoring model has good efficacy for predicting the occurrence of KD with CALs. The expression of S100A12 was significantly increased in the CALs group and was an independent risk factor for the occurrence of CALs, and has the potential as a biomarker for predicting KD with CALs.

A machine learning model for distinguishing Kawasaki disease from sepsis

KD is an acute systemic vasculitis that most commonly affects children under 5 years old. Sepsis is a systemic inflammatory response syndrome caused by infection. The main clinical manifestations of both are fever, and laboratory tests include elevated WBC count, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin. However, the two treatments are very different. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a dynamic nomogram based on clinical data to help clinicians make timely diagnoses and decision-making. In this study, we analyzed 299 KD patients and 309 sepsis patients. We collected patients' age, sex, height, weight, BMI, and 33 biological parameters of a routine blood test. After dividing the patients into a training set and validation set, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method, support vector machine and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to select significant factors and construct the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by discrimination and calibration. The decision curve analysis was used to assess the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. This nomogram shows that height, WBC, monocyte, eosinophil, lymphocyte to monocyte count ratio (LMR), PA, GGT and platelet are independent predictors of the KD diagnostic model. The c-index of the nomogram in the training set and validation is 0.926 and 0.878, which describes good discrimination. The nomogram is well calibrated. The decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram has better clinical application value and decision-making assistance ability. The nomogram has good performance of distinguishing KD from sepsis and is helpful for clinical pediatricians to make early clinical decisions.

The use of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease is a vasculitis that can lead to cardiac complications, including coronary artery disease and cardiogenic shock. Various scoring systems have been developed to determine those that will be refractory to routine intravenous immunoglobulin therapy or develop coronary artery disease. The objective of this study was to determine if the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio could predict refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was performed to identify manuscripts describing comparisons of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio between those who had refractory disease and those who did not, and between those who developed coronary artery lesions and those who did not. Mean difference was compared between groups. Areas under the curve were utilised to determine the pooled area under the curve.

RESULTS

12 studies with 5593 patients were included in the final analyses of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of refractory disease. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio before therapy was higher in refractory disease with a mean difference of 2.55 (p < 0.01) and pooled area under the curve of 0.724. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio after therapy was higher in refractory disease with a mean difference of 1.42 (p < 0.01) and pooled area under the curve for of 0.803. Five studies with 1690 patients were included in the final analyses of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of coronary artery lesions. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio before therapy was higher in coronary artery lesions with a mean difference of 0.65 (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The use of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio may help physicians in the identification of patients at risk of refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease.

Risk Factors for Coronary Artery Aneurysm in a Chinese Pediatric Population with Kawasaki Disease at Low Risk of Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance: A Retrospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Multiple scoring systems for predicting intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance have been developed. Although low-scoring patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) have a favorable prognosis, many develop coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs). Herein, we determined the risk factors for CAA development among patients with KD with low risk of IVIG resistance.

METHODS

We compared 14 scoring systems for predicting IVIG resistance among patients with KD hospitalized from 2003 to 2022. Patients were risk stratified using an optimal scoring system. Association between baseline characteristics and CAA development was assessed within the low-risk group.

RESULTS

Overall, 664 pediatric patients with KD were included; 108 (16.3%) had IVIG resistance, and the Liping scoring system had the highest area under the curve (0.714). According to this system, 444 (66.9%) patients with KD were classified as having low risk of developing IVIG resistance (<5 points). CAA development was significantly associated with male sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.946; 95% CI: 1.015-3.730), age <6 months at fever onset (OR, 3.142; 95% CI: 1.028-9.608), and a baseline maximum Z score of ≥2.72 (OR, 3.451; 95% CI: 2.582-4.612). CAA incidence increased with the number of risk factors, and comparisons with a Kobayashi score of <5 points among patients with KD revealed similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Predicting the response to IVIG might help further reduce CAA development in patients with KD.

Kawasaki disease coronary artery lesions prediction with monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of the monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio (MHR) in Kawasaki disease (KD) complicated with coronary artery lesions (CALs) and to construct a nomogram prediction model.

METHODS

The medical records of KD inpatients diagnosed in the Department of Pediatrics of Lanzhou University Second Hospital from May 2015 to September 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. ROC curves were applied to evaluate the predictive value of MHR in KD complicated with CALs, and logistic regression analysis was used to screen independent risk factors. We constructed a nomogram model and performed internal validation.

RESULTS

A total of 568 KD patients were enrolled in the study. MHR was significantly higher in KD patients complicated with CALs and was identified as an independent risk factor for CALs (OR: 1.604, 95% CI: 1.292-1.990). The area under the ROC curve for MHR in predicting CALs was 0.661. The C-index of the nomogram model constructed by incorporating MHR was 0.725 (95% CI: 0.682-0.768), and the calibration curve revealed good agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

MHR may not be suitable as a single biomarker to predict the occurrence of CALs, but the nomogram model constructed in combination with other independent risk factors had acceptable predictive performance.

IMPACT

The inflammatory response plays an important role in the pathogenesis of Kawasaki disease. The monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio is a novel systemic inflammation marker. The monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio is an independent risk factor for Kawasaki disease complicated with coronary artery lesions. The nomogram established by incorporating the monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio has satisfactory predictive performance for coronary artery lesion formation.

Prediction Model Risk-of-Bias Assessment Tool for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease

Objective

To review and critically appraise articles on prediction models for coronary artery lesions (CALs) in Kawasaki disease included in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases from January 1, 1980, to December 23, 2021.

Materials and methods

Study screening, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed by two independent reviewers, with a statistics expert resolving discrepancies. Articles that developed or validated a prediction model for CALs in Kawasaki disease were included. The Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modeling Studies checklist was used to extract data from different articles, and Prediction Model Risk-of-Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess the bias risk in different prediction models. We screened 19 studies from a pool of 881 articles.

Results

The studies included 73-5,151 patients. In most studies, univariable logistic regression was used to develop prediction models. In two studies, external data were used to validate the developing model. The most commonly included predictors were C-reactive protein (CRP) level, male sex, and fever duration. All studies had a high bias risk, mostly because of small sample size, improper handling of missing data, and inappropriate descriptions of model performance and the evaluation model.

Conclusion

The prediction models were suitable for the subjects included in the studies, but were poorly effective in other populations. The phenomenon may partly be due to the bias risk in prediction models. Future models should address these problems and PROBAST should be used to guide study design.

Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio as a Biomarker for Predicting the Coronary Artery Abnormality in Kawasaki Disease: A Meta-Analysis

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on the relationship between the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and coronary artery abnormalities (CAA) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD), according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statements. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, TRIP, Google Scholar, and ProQuest up to the 8th of August 2022. This was done to retrieve eligible studies. No date or language limitations were considered in this study. Methodology quality assessment was conducted according to the Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS). Standard mean difference (SMD) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to depict the pooled continuous variables. Finally, 17 articles with 6334 KD patients, of whom 1328 developed CAA, were enrolled in this meta-analysis. NLR level was significantly higher in KD patients with CAA compared to those without CAA (SMD =0.81; 95% CI =0.05-1.57, P = 0.03). In addition, NLR level was significantly higher in patients with coronary artery aneurysms than those without coronary artery aneurysms (SMD =2.29; 95% CI =0.18-4.41, P = 0.03). However, no significant association between NLR and coronary artery dilation was observed in this meta-analysis (SMD =0.56; 95% CI = -0.86-1.99). There was no publication bias for the pooled SMD of NLR for coronary artery abnormality in KD (Egger's test P = 0.82; Begg's test P = 0.32). The NLR may be useful in monitoring CAA development in these patients and may further imply a mechanistic role in potential inflammation that mediates this process.

Risk Factors for Coronary Artery Lesionsin Kawasaki Disease Independent of Antibiotic Use in Chinese Children

Objectives

To study the impact of antibiotics used in Kawasaki disease (KD) with coronary artery lesions (CAL) and identify independent risk factors.

Methodology

This study reviewed the records of 287 KD patients between the years 2016 and 2020. Patients were grouped by their outcome, the CAL group, and a no-coronary artery lesions (NCAL) group, and stratified by the use of antibiotics. We collected clinical and laboratory data before the intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment.

Results

The two groups of KD patients with and without CAL were compared. The results showed that there are significant differences between groups which were erythrocyte count (p = 0.045) and hemoglobin (p = 0.005), red blood cell-specific volume (p = 0.001), immature granular cells percentage (p = 0.006), total protein (p = 0.045), albumin (p = 0.041), alkaline phosphatase (p = 0.023), and chlorine (p = 0.006). After multivariate logistic regression, neutrophil granulocyte percentage (odds ratio [OR] = 1.200, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.008-1.428, p = 0.040), lymphocyte percentage (p = 0.028, OR = 1.243, 95% CI: 1.024-1.508, p = 0.028) and total protein (OR = 4.414, 95% CI: 1.092-17.846, p = 0.037) were found to be independent risk factors for CAL. After analyzing the cases with a history of antibiotic use, multivariate analysis showed no indicators were considered independent risk factors for CAL.

Conclusion

Neutrophil granulocyte percentage, Lymphocyte percentage and total protein were independent risks for CAL in KD without antibiotics use history. The use of antibiotics affected physiological indicators of KD patients.

Tenascin-C predicts IVIG non-responsiveness and coronary artery lesions in kawasaki disease in a Chinese cohort

OBJECTIVES

To assess the predictive value of tenascin-C (TN-C) for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) non-responsiveness and coronary artery lesions (CALs) development at the acute stage of Kawasaki disease, and to build novel scoring systems for identifying IVIG non-responsiveness and CALs.

METHODS

A total of 261 patients in acute-stage Kawasaki disease were included. Serum samples before IVIG initiation were collected and TN-C expression levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In addition to TN-C, another fifteen clinical and laboratory parameters collected before treatment were compared between IVIG responsive and non-responsive groups, and between groups with and without CALs. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to construct new scoring systems for the prediction of IVIG non-responsiveness and CALs development.

RESULTS

IVIG non-responsive group (n = 51) had significantly higher TN-C level compared to IVIG responsive group (n = 210) (15.44 vs. 12.38 IU/L, P < 0.001). A novel scoring system composed of TN-C, total bilirubin, serum sodium and albumin was established to predict IVIG non-responsiveness. Patients with a total score ≥ 2 points were classified as high-risk cases. With the sensitivity of 78.4% and specificity of 73.8%, the efficiency of our scoring system for predicting IVIG non-responsiveness was comparable to the Kobayashi system. Consistently, the group developing CALs at the acute stage (n = 42) had significantly higher TN-C level compared to the group without CALs (n = 219) (19.76 vs. 12.10 IU/L, P < 0.001). A new scoring system showed that patients with elevated TN-C, platelet count ≥ 450 × 10⁹/L, and delayed initial infusion of IVIG had a higher risk of developing CALs. Individuals with a total score ≥ 3 points were classified as high-risk cases. The sensitivity and specificity of the novel simple system for predicting CALs development were 83.3% and 74.0%, respectively, yielding a better efficiency than the Harada score.

CONCLUSION

Elevated TN-C appeared to be an independent risk factor for both IVIG non-responsiveness and CALs in Chinese children with KD. Our scoring systems containing TN-C is simple and efficient in the early identification of high-risk KD cases that could benefit from more individualized medications.

A new scoring system for coronary artery abnormalities in Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

In China, coronary artery abnormalities (CAAs) secondary to Kawasaki disease (KD) tend to have an increased occurrence. We hypothesize that Chinese children with KD may possess several unique CAA risks, and the predictive efficacy of multiple scoring systems in Chinese patients are still to be further studied.

METHODS

Two hundred and three KD patients were recruited. Using multivariable analysis, independent predictors of CAAs were combined into a scoring system. Subsequently, CAA risks of our patients were evaluated by the newly established scoring system and eight other published scoring systems.

RESULTS

Seventeen (8.37%) KD patients were identified as CAAs. The newly established scoring system contained the following 5 independent predictors: days of illness at initial treatment ≥7, redness and swelling of extremities, hematocrit ≤33%, percentage of monocytes ≥8.89%, and procalcitonin ≥0.5 ng/mL. The AUC value of newly established scoring system was 0.685 with a sensitivity of 41.18% and a specificity of 84.41%, higher than Harada score, Egami score, Kobayashi score, Sato score, San Diego score, Formosa score, and Tang score, whereas lower than Hua score.

CONCLUSIONS

Days of illness at initial treatment ≥7 and procalcitonin are unique predictors of CAAs in newly established scoring system. Taking into account different identification criteria and analytical methodologies, there is still some heterogeneity among different scoring systems.

IMPACT

The newly established scoring system contains the five independent predictors. Days of illness at initial treatment ≥7 and PCT are unique predictors of CAAs in our study, compared with 8 other systems. The AUC value of newly established scoring system is 0.685, similar to Hua score. There is some heterogeneity among different scoring systems.

A case report of atypical Kawasaki disease presented with severe elevated transaminases and literature review

Background

Kawasaki disease (KD) is the most common cause of acquired heart disease among children in developed countries, in which the resulting coronary artery (CA) abnormalities cause myocardial ischemia, infarction, and death. Prompt diagnosis was essential, and supplemental information should be used to assist the diagnosis when classical clinical criteria are incomplete. The elevated levels of serum transaminases in most KD patients are mild. Herein, a case of atypical KD child with severely elevated transaminase was reported.

Case presentation

A child with clinical manifestations of fever, high C-reactive protein (CRP) and severely elevated transaminases was reported. The treatment effect of antibiotic and liver-protecting drugs was not satisfactory. A bilateral diffuse dilation of the CA was detected on echocardiography on day 5 of the illness; thus, atypical KD was diagnosed. Elevated transaminases declined rapidly to normal after the treatment of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG). A 1-month follow-up revealed that CA returned to normal, and 2-month, 6-months, and 1-year follow-up revealed the child was in good general health.

Conclusions

This case highlighted that atypical KD clinical symptoms were diverse, and severely elevated transaminases might provide a clue to healthcare providers for the diagnosis and management of atypical KD.

Is there an association between intravenous immunoglobulin resistance and coronary artery lesion in Kawasaki disease?-Current evidence based on a meta-analysis

Background

Coronary artery lesion (CAL) caused by Kawasaki disease (KD) is a leading cause of acquired heart disease in children. Initial treatment of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) can reduce the incidence of CAL. Although most of the current studies have shown a certain correlation between CAL and IVIG resistance, the conclusions are not completely consistent. Thus, we performed this meta-analysis to evaluate the association between IVIG resistance and CAL in KD.

Methods

PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure through April 21, 2020 were searched to detect relevant studies. Data analysis was performed with STATA 15.1.

Results

A total of 53 relevant studies were eligible to this analysis, including 30312 KD patients, of which 4750 were IVIG resistance and 25562 were responders. There was a significant difference found between IVIG resistance and IVIG response groups in the incidence of CAL (P < 0.001, odds ratio (OR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) (3.18, 4.75)). The heterogeneity test results showed that the I² value was 74.8%. The meta-regression analysis showed that the study regions might be the sources of heterogeneity. The subgroup analysis suggested that the incidence of CAL in the IVIG resistance group was still higher than that in the IVIG response group under different regions, IVIG resistance diagnostic criteria, CAL diagnostic criteria, and study types. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis did not find any significant impact from every single study.

Conclusions

This is the first meta-analysis to reveal the incidence of CAL was associated with IVIG resistance in KD patients. Further well-designed studies with uniform criteria are needed to evaluate the incidence of CAL in IVIG resistant patients.

Long-term follow-up of coronary artery lesions in children in Kawasaki syndrome

To describe clinical and epidemiological characteristics of a Kawasaki syndrome cohort. In a monocentric, retrospective, observational study, between February 1982 and August 2018, we enrolled 361 children, aged 1 month to 24.4 years. Coronary artery lesions were detected in 20.2% of patients: 16% had coronary ectasia, and 4.15% had coronary aneurisms. A significant difference regarding age at disease onset (p = 0.025), fever duration (p < 0.0001), CRP (p = 0.001) and day of first IVIG administration (p < 0.0001) was detected among group. A significant correlation between coronary artery lesions and disease onset < 6 months (p = 0.009), second IVIG dose (p < 0.001) and male gender (p = 0.038) has been detected. Median long-term follow-up was 10.2 years (1-36 years). At the last available follow-up, patients without coronary involvement and coronary ectasia had normal cardiological tests, conversely, in patients with aneurisms, 8/13 showed persistent aneurisms at echocardiography, one ECG repolarization alterations, and one ST depression at the peak of effort during ergometric test.Conclusion: Children with lower age, longer fever, higher level of CRP and retard in IVIG administration are at higher risk to develop coronary artery lesions. Our long-term follow-up analysis confirms, over 36 years of observation, the benign course of Kawasaki syndrome even in coronary artery lesion patients, if timely treated. What is already known about this topic? • Stopping cardiologic assessment in no risk patients results economically advantageous, timesaving and able to reduce emotional discomfort in children and their families. • Age at disease onset, fever duration, CRP level, and day of first IVIG administration are possible risk factors for coronary artery lesions What is New? • During 36 years of observation in real life, our study shows the benign course of Kawasaki syndrome without coronary artery lesions after 6-8 weeks from the disease onset. • Age < 6 months at disease onset is strongly related with coronary artery lesion development.

Evaluating the added predictive ability of MMP-9 in serum for Kawasaki disease with coronary artery lesions

To investigate the predictive ability of serum matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) in the acute phase of Kawasaki disease (KD) with coronary artery lesions (CALs). Patients with KD hospitalized in Lanzhou University Second Hospital, Northwest China, from November 2015 to January 2018 were retrospectively reviewed, and clinical trial indicators and peripheral blood specimens were collected before intravenous immunoglobulin therapy treatment. The independent risk factors were determined using multivariate regression analysis. The net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to quantitatively evaluate the ability of MMP-9 to improve the efficiency of predicting KD with CALs. The white cell, neutrophil percentage, C-reactive protein (CRP), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) were higher in patients with higher MMP-9, and the monocyte percentage was higher in patients with lower MMP-9. Logistic regression analysis revealed that long-term fever; elevated CRP, ESR, platelets (PLT), and MMP-9; and low albumin (ALB) levels were independent predictors of KD with CALs. A predictive model of KD with CALs using fever duration, CRP, ESR, PLT, and ALB showed significantly improved predictive ability when MMP-9 was added to the model (the area under the curve increased by 0.02; no change in sensitivity; specificity increased from 81.48% to 87.04%; NRI value: 13.46%; IDI value: 5.00%, p<0.05). Adding MMP-9 to traditional risk factors may improve prediction of CALs, the overall predictive ability of model 2 was increased by 5%.

The Risk Prediction of Coronary Artery Lesions through the Novel Hematological Z-Values in 4 Chronological Age Subgroups of Kawasaki Disease

Background and Objectives: Most cases of Kawasaki disease (KD) occur between the ages of 6 months and 5 years. Differences in immunological reaction and CAL (coronary artery lesion) by the age subgroups classified according to the prevalence of KD and those particularly in the earlier life of KD should be investigated. Materials and Methods: The laboratory data of 223 infantile and 681 non-infantile KD cases from 2003 to 2018 at Korea University Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with KD were divided into infants and non-infants and further subdivided into four subgroups by age. The age-adjusted Z-values were compared among the subgroups. Febrile controls were identified as patients with fever for >5 days and who showed some of the KD symptoms. Results: IVIG (intravenous immunoglobulin) resistance at the age of 6 months or less was significantly lower than that at the ages of 7–12 months and 13–60 months (respectively, p < 0.05). The significant risk factors for CAL in total KD patients were age, incomplete KD, post-IVIG fever, IVIG resistance, convalescent Z-eosinophil, and subacute platelet (p < 0.05). The significant risk factors for CAL at the age of 6 months or less were IVIG resistance, acute Z-neutrophil, subacute Z-neutrophil, subacute NLR (neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio), and subacute platelet (respectively, p < 0.05). Conclusion: Younger age and incomplete presentation in KD can be independent risk factors for CAL. The immune reactions of KD at a younger age are more tolerated compared with those at older ages during the acute phase. The immune response at the age of 6 months or less showed immune tolerance in terms of incomplete presentation and IVIG responsiveness. The risk factors such as IVIG resistance, subacute platelet, subacute NLR, and acute or subacute Z-neutrophil at the age of 6 months or less can be very useful parameters to predict CAL in young, incomplete KD.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and scoring system for predicting coronary artery lesions of Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease (KD) causes coronary artery lesions (CAL) and is the leading cause of acquired heart disease in children. The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk factors and set-up a scoring system for predicting CAL of KD.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed a total of 478 patients diagnosed with KD. We compared age, gender, laboratory data, and treatment response in two groups and developed a scoring system for predicting CAL.

RESULTS

During the study period, 365 of these patients had complete medical records of coronary surveys by echocardiography. Anemia, hypoalbuminemia, C reactive protein (CRP), alanine aminotransferase, neutrophil count, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) showed significant differences with CAL formation. We determined the cut-off value using a receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curve, and following multivariate logistic regression analysis, four independent risk factors demonstrated a significant difference with CAL formation, including CRP > 103 mg/L, NLR > 3.5, male gender, and intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance. We established a score system based on the above evaluation, for which a ROC curve was performed, and a total score of ≥ 2 points showed a sensitivity of 60.8% and a specificity of 70.6%, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.696.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying children at risk is important in order to prevent CAL from developing. Four independent risk factors that can predict CAL formation were CRP > 103 mg/L, NLR > 3.5, male gender, and IVIG resistance. This first report incorporated NLR into score systems to predict CAL reinforces previously well-known risk factors for the CAL formation among KD patients.

Prognosis and Risk Factors of Coronary Artery Lesions before Immunoglobulin Therapy in Children with Kawasaki Disease

Background:

Many children with Kawasaki disease develop coronary artery lesions before intravenous immunoglobulin treatment. However, little data are available on the prognosis of children with Kawasaki disease who developed coronary artery lesions before intravenous immunoglobulin treatment.

Aims:

To explore the outcomes of coronary artery lesions before intravenous immunoglobulin treatment in children with Kawasaki disease and analyze the factors that influence the duration of coronary artery lesions.

Study Design:

Retrospective cohort study.

Methods:

All patients with Kawasaki disease who developed coronary artery lesions before intravenous immunoglobulin treatment in our hospital from January 2009 to December 2014 were reviewed. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the factors influencing the prognosis of coronary artery lesions.

Results:

Among 182 patients included, 28.6% were male, 83.50% were younger than 36 months, and 181 exhibited resolution of coronary artery lesions 2 years after disease onset. The median duration of coronary artery lesions was 31 days, and the proportion of coronary artery lesions was 52% at 1 month, 35% at 2 months, 33% at 3 months, 25% at 6 months, 14% at 1 year, and 0.5% at 2 years. The univariate analysis showed that overweight status, higher platelet count, lower albumin level, and starting treatment more than 10 days after disease onset were factors that possibly affect the duration of coronary artery lesions in children. The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that female sex (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.661; 95% confidence interval, 1.117-2.470) was an independent protective factor, and overweight status (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.469; 95% confidence interval, 0.298-0.737), higher platelet count (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.649; 95% confidence interval, 0.443-0.950), and starting treatment more than 10 days after disease onset (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.392; 95% confidence interval, 0.215-0.716) were independent risk factors for a longer duration of coronary artery lesions.

Conclusion:

The average duration of coronary artery lesions before intravenous immunoglobulin therapy in children with Kawasaki disease is approximately 1 month. Male gender, overweight status, higher platelet count, and initiation of treatment more than 10 days after the onset of the disease are independent risk factors for longer-lasting coronary artery lesions.

Hepatic dysfunction secondary to Kawasaki disease: characteristics, etiology and predictive role in coronary artery abnormalities

Coronary artery abnormalities (CAAs) are prominent during the acute Kawasaki disease (KD) episode and represent the major contributors to the long-term prognosis. Several meta-analysis and published scoring systems have identified hepatic dysfunction as an independent predictor of CAA risks. The medical records of 210 KD children were reviewed. Blood samples were collected from all subjects at 24 h pre-therapy and 48 h post-therapy, respectively. Liver function test (LFT) and inflammatory mediators were detected. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the reliable biomarkers predicting whether CAAs existed or not in KD patients. 90.95% of KD patients had at least 1 abnormal LFT. Hypoalbuminemia was the most prevalent type of hepatic dysfunction, followed by elevated aspartate aminotransferase, low TP, low A/G and hyperbilirubinemia, respectively. The elevated inflammatory mediators (procalcitonin and C-reactive protein) and moderate dose of aspirin played a synthetic role in hepatic dysfunction secondary to KD. However, LFT presented no significant differences between infectious and noninfectious conditions. By a multivariate analysis, a lower albumin/globulin ratio (A/G, OR 13.50, 95% CI 3.944-46.23) served as an independent predictor of CAAs and had a sensitivity of 56.25%, and a specificity of 61.11% at a cutoff value of < 1.48. In conclusion, hepatic dysfunction is a common complication during the acute KD episode, characterized by elevated serum liver enzymes, hypoalbuminemia and hyperbilirubinemia. Systemic inflammation and aspirin, rather than infectious agents, are both the major contributors of hepatic dysfunction secondary to KD. A lower A/G serves as an independent predictor of CAAs.

Epidemiologic Features of Kawasaki Disease in Shanghai From 2013 Through 2017

Background

We sought to investigate epidemiologic features of Kawasaki disease (KD) in Shanghai from 2013 through 2017 and identify risk factors for coronary artery lesions (CAL).

Methods

As in our previous three surveys, a set of questionnaires and diagnostic guidelines for KD were sent to 50 hospitals providing pediatric medical care in Shanghai. Medical records of KD patients diagnosed from January 2013 through December 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for CAL.

Results

A total of 4,452 cases were enrolled. Male-to-female ratio was 1.7:1. The incidence of KD was 68.8 to 107.3 per 100,000 children aged <5 years from 2013 to 2017. Age at onset ranged from 15 days to 14.0 years (median: 1.8 years). KD occurred more frequently in spring and summer. Of 4,325 patients (97.0%) receiving intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), 362 (8.4%) were resistant to initial IVIG. CAL occurred in 406 (9.1%) patients, including 118 (2.7%) with medium aneurysms and 31 (0.7%) with giant aneurysms. Recurrent cases were 60 (1.3%). No death was found in this survey. Higher platelet levels, lower albumin levels, male sex, incomplete KD, IVIG resistance, and receiving initial IVIG ≤4 days or >10 days, were independently associated with CAL.

Conclusions

The incidence of KD in Shanghai had substantially increased while the proportion of CAL had substantially decreased as compared with our previous surveys. Higher platelet levels, lower albumin levels, male sex, incomplete KD, IVIG resistance, and receiving initial IVIG ≤4 days or >10 days, were risk factors for CAL.

The time option of IVIG treatment is associated with therapeutic responsiveness and coronary artery abnormalities but not with clinical classification in the acute episode of Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

In the last decade, incomplete Kawasaki disease (KD), intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) non-response and coronary artery abnormalities (CAA) have experienced the increasing trends in China. In addition, the enhancement of pediatricians' awareness may also raise the diagnostic rate of incomplete KD and stimulate more aggressive initial therapy in the acute episode of KD. Given this background, we hypothesize that the time option of IVIG treatment should be in parallel with peak time of systemic inflammation; either earlier or later IVIG treatment may affect the clinical classification, therapeutic responsiveness and CAA occurrence in KD patients. Therefore, the major objective of the present study is to identify whether the time option of IVIG treatment could be associated with the clinical classification, therapeutic responsiveness and CAA occurrence in the acute episode of KD.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 153 children with KD were recruited between July 2015 and May 2018. All patients received the standard therapy of KD, including a single infusion of IVIG (2 g/kg) and aspirin (30-50 mg/kg/d). Blood samples were collected from all subjects within 24 h pre-IVIG treatment, respectively. Echocardiography was performed during the period from 2 days to 14 days after IVIG treatment.

RESULTS

(1) The clinical classification presented no significant heterogenicity among different treatment time (x2 = 1.59, p > 0.05) (2) Eleven KD patients resisted to IVIG treatment and 7 of them (63.60%) received the initial IVIG dose on day 5 and 6. (3) The distribution of CAA onset was subjected to a significant difference according to timing option of IVIG treatment (x2 = 11.94, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The time option of IVIG treatment is associated with therapeutic responsiveness and CAA but not with clinical classification in the acute episode of KD.

A New Scoring System for Prediction of Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance of Kawasaki Disease in Infants Under 1-Year Old

Background: Children with Kawasaki disease (KD) under 1-year old are at high risk for intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance. The study was designed to explore the predictive measure of IVIG resistance in infants under 1-year old with KD. Methods: This study enrolled children under 1-year old suffering from KD in Peking University First Hospital and Wuhan Children's Hospital. All infants were divided into IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. The differences in demographic characteristics, clinical features, and laboratory examinations were compared and the risk factors of IVIG resistant KD were analyzed. Furthermore, a scoring system was developed for predicting IVIG resistance in KD infants and an external validation was performed. Result: A total of 282 infants (194 boys, median age of 7.0 months) were enrolled in this study, of whom 23 children were IVIG-resistant. Compared with IVIG-responsive infants, those in the IVIG-resistant group had a high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), high platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), high mean platelet volume-to-lymphocyte ratio (MPVLR) in peripheral blood, and low serum albumin, and low serum sodium before IVIG therapy (all P < 0.01). Multiple regression analysis indicated that high levels of peripheral NLR and MPVLR, and low levels of serum albumin and serum sodium were independent risk factors for IVIG resistant KD infants. A scoring system, which included peripheral NLR ≥ 2.69 (1 point), MPVLR ≥ 2.78 (1 point), serum albumin ≤ 30.7 g/L (1 point), and serum sodium ≤ 135.2 mmol/L (1 point), was established. A cut-off value of a total score of 2 points or higher yielded a sensitivity of 87.0% and a specificity of 78.4%, with an area under the curve of 0.891. External validation with clinical diagnostic standard showed that a cut-off value of total score of 2 points or higher for predicting the IVIG-resistance yielded a sensitivity of 70.0% and a specificity of 75.1%. Conclusion: For the first time, we proposed a predictive model of IVIG resistance in KD infants under 1-year old. The scoring system, which accounts for baseline peripheral NLR, MPVLR, and serum albumin and sodium, predicts with relatively high sensitivity and specificity for IVIG-resistant infants with KD under 1-year old.