Validation of a renal risk score in a cohort of ANCA-associated vasculitis patients with severe kidney damage

The prognostic value of two histopathologic classification models of ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Berden Classification and anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) Renal Risk Score are classification models for rating renal histology and predicting outcome in patients with ANCA-associated Vasculitis/Glomerulonephritis (AAV/GN). In the present study we compare their ability to predict renal function outcome in short- and long-term follow up.

METHODS

Patients with an initial diagnosis of AAV/GN based on kidney biopsy were classified according to Berden and Renal Risk Score, started on the same treatment protocol, and were followed prospectively for up to 60 months. Renal function was recorded at 3mo(T3), 6mo(T6) and 60mo(T60), and results were compared to both classification systems.

RESULTS

Ninety four AAV/GN patients, M/F = 36/58, age = 60.05 (18-82)yrs were included. Based on Berden classification, patients grouped as Focal (n = 24), Crescentic (n = 35), Mixed (n = 21) and Sclerotic (n = 14), had significant differences in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) only at T3, while the percentage of those requiring hemodialysis differed at T0, T3, T6 but not at T60. According to the Renal Risk Score, patients were classified as Low (n = 8), Medium (n = 47) and High (n = 39) risk, and showed significant differences in both eGFR levels, proportion of hemodialysis, at T0, T3, T6 and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) at T60. Even patients classified as Mixed (Berden) and as Medium or High risk (Renal Risk Score) had significant improvement from T0 to T6. Relapse could not be predicted by either system.

CONCLUSION

Both methods were able to predict short-term renal function outcome and need for hemodialysis, but the Renal Risk Score showed significant superiority in predicting renal function outcome and ESKD after long-term follow up.

The Improved Kidney Risk Score in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis for Clinical Practice and Trials

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Reliable prediction tools are needed to personalize treatment in ANCA-associated GN. More than 1500 patients were collated in an international longitudinal study to revise the ANCA kidney risk score. The score showed satisfactory performance, mimicking the original study (Harrell's C=0.779). In the development cohort of 959 patients, no additional parameters aiding the tool were detected, but replacing the GFR with creatinine identified an additional cutoff. The parameter interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy was modified to allow wider access, risk points were reweighted, and a fourth risk group was created, improving predictive ability (C=0.831). In the validation, the new model performed similarly well with excellent calibration and discrimination ( n =480, C=0.821). The revised score optimizes prognostication for clinical practice and trials.

BACKGROUND

Reliable prediction tools are needed to personalize treatment in ANCA-associated GN. A retrospective international longitudinal cohort was collated to revise the ANCA renal risk score.

METHODS

The primary end point was ESKD with patients censored at last follow-up. Cox proportional hazards were used to reweight risk factors. Kaplan-Meier curves, Harrell's C statistic, receiver operating characteristics, and calibration plots were used to assess model performance.

RESULTS

Of 1591 patients, 1439 were included in the final analyses, 2:1 randomly allocated per center to development and validation cohorts (52% male, median age 64 years). In the development cohort ( n =959), the ANCA renal risk score was validated and calibrated, and parameters were reinvestigated modifying interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy allowing semiquantitative reporting. An additional cutoff for kidney function (K) was identified, and serum creatinine replaced GFR (K0: <250 µ mol/L=0, K1: 250-450 µ mol/L=4, K2: >450 µ mol/L=11 points). The risk points for the percentage of normal glomeruli (N) and interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (T) were reweighted (N0: >25%=0, N1: 10%-25%=4, N2: <10%=7, T0: none/mild or <25%=0, T1: ≥ mild-moderate or ≥25%=3 points), and four risk groups created: low (0-4 points), moderate (5-11), high (12-18), and very high (21). Discrimination was C=0.831, and the 3-year kidney survival was 96%, 79%, 54%, and 19%, respectively. The revised score performed similarly well in the validation cohort with excellent calibration and discrimination ( n =480, C=0.821).

CONCLUSIONS

The updated score optimizes clinicopathologic prognostication for clinical practice and trials.

Validation of a renal risk score in a cohort of children with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis

Anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) is extremely rare in children. Renal involvement is a common and severe complication of AAV as it can cause end stage kidney disease (ESKD). ANCA renal risk score (ARRS) is helpful in predicting long-term ESKD in patients with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN). This retrospective study included 61 consecutive patients with kidney biopsy specimen-proven AAGN from Clinical Center for Children's Kidney Disease in China. Each patient was assessed by eGFR, normal glomeruli, and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis, and the renal outcome was evaluated using the ARRS. Based on the ARRS, 27 (44.26%), 21 (34.43%), and 13 (21.31%) patients were divided into the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. The median follow-up period was 46.36 (14.58-95.62) months. The high-risk group had worse renal outcomes than the low-risk group (p< 0.05) and the medium-risk group (p < 0.05). COX multivariate regression analysis showed that eGFR ≤ 15 ml/min/1.73 m2 (p = 0.015, Hazard Ratio (HR) = 9.574, 95% CI 4.205-25.187) and ARRS (p = 0.012, HR = 2.115, 95% CI 1.206-4.174) were independent risk factors for ESKD.The area under the curve for ESKD prediction of ARRS was 0.880, and the best cutoff value was 5.50. Delong test result showed that ARRS exhibited better predictive value for ESKD than the Berden classification (p < 0.001) and rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis (p < 0.001). This is the first study to investigate the value of the ARRS for predicting renal prognosis among Chinese children. The ARRS is a preferred index that can predict ESKD in Chinese children with AAGN.

Outcomes in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis in Scotland: Validation of the Renal Risk Score in a Complete National Cohort

Introduction

Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) causes autoimmune-mediated inflammation of small blood vessels in multiple organs, including the kidneys. The ability to accurately predict kidney outcomes would enable a more personalized therapeutic approach.

Methods

We used our national renal biopsy registry to validate the ability of ANCA Renal Risk Score (ARRS) to predict end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) for individual patients. This score uses histopathological and biochemical data to stratify patients as high, medium, or low risk for developing ESKD.

Results

A total of 288 patients were eligible for inclusion in the study (low risk n = 144, medium risk n = 122, high risk n = 12). Using adjusted Cox proportional hazard models with the low-risk group as reference, we show that outcome differs between the categories: high-risk hazard ratio (HR) 16.69 (2.91-95.81, P = 0.002); medium risk HR 4.14 (1.07-16.01, P = 0.039). Incremental multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models demonstrated that adding ARRS to a model adjusted for multiple clinical parameters enhanced predictive discrimination (basic model C-statistic 0.864 [95% CI 0.813-0.914], basic model plus ARRS C-statistic 0.877 [95% CI 0.823-0.931]; P <0.01).

Conclusion

The ARRS better discriminates risk of ESKD in AAV and offers clinicians more prognostic information than the use of standard biochemical and clinical measures alone. This is the first time the ARRS has been validated in a national cohort. The proportion of patients with high-risk scores is lower in our cohort compared to others and should be noted as a limitation of this study.

Evaluation of three scoring systems for predicting renal prognosis in antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated glomerulonephritis

BACKGROUND

Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN) is characterized by rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis, and timely initiation of treatment and evaluation is critical to prevent the progression of renal disease to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The aim of this study was to evaluate predictive value of the renal risk score (RRS), Birmingham vasculitis activity score (BVAS), and renal vascular lesions (RVLs) score for renal prognosis in AAGN.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of ninety-four patients diagnosed with AAGN after renal biopsy was performed. The RRS, BVAS, and RVLs score were evaluated in relation to clinicopathologic features and renal prognosis. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate their renal prognostic value.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 36 months. Thirty-eight patients progressed to ESRD. Survival analysis showed that renal prognosis worsened in the RRS group in order of low, medium, and high RRS (P < 0.05). Within the RVLs group, the renal prognosis of the groups with severe and moderate RVLs was worse than that of the group without RVLs (P = 0.012, P < 0.001), and the group with mild RVLs was close to that of the group without RVLs. ROC analysis showed that the AUC of RRS, BVAS, RVLs score, RVLs score combined with RRS (RVLs score & RRS, RR), RVLs score, and RRS combined with BVAS (RVLs score & RRS & BVAS, RRB) were 0.865, 0.624, 0.763, 0.910, and 0.942, respectively. The predictive power of RRB and RR was comparable and significantly better than the RRS, BVAS, and RVLs score. Based on simplicity and validity, RR was selected as the best predictor, and the relationship between RRS, RVLs score, and RR was calculated using a linear fit, resulting in the linear equation RR = -0.4766 + 0.1231 × RVLs score + 0.395 × RRS (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In AAGN, the predictive power of RR for renal prognosis was superior to that of RRS, BVAS, and RVLs score. RR may serve as a new predictor of renal prognosis in AAGN.

A modified renal risk score for Chinese patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis

BACKGROUND

The renal risk score (RRS) is a useful tool to predict end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV). The current study aimed to validate the predictive performance of RRS and to further modify this model in Chinese AAV patients.

METHODS

Two hundred and seventy-two patients diagnosed with AAV confirmed by renal biopsies were retrospectively enrolled from a single center. The RRS was calculated based on 3 categorical variables, i.e., the proportion of normal glomeruli, the proportion of interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IF/TA), and eGFR at biopsy, classifying these patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. In addition, a modified model was developed based on the RRS and was further validated in another independent cohort of 117 AAV patients. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated according to discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

Patients were classified by the RRS into low- (26.5%), medium- (46.7%), and high-risk (26.8%) groups, with 120-month renal survival rates of 93.3%, 57.2%, and 18.4%, respectively (P < 0.001). The RRS showed good discrimination but less satisfactory calibration. Therefore, a modified model with improved discrimination and calibration was developed in Chinese AAV patients, with eGFR, proportion of normal glomeruli (both as continuous variables), and IF/TA (< 25%, 25-50%, > 50%) included. Internal and external validation of the modified model were performed. Finally, an online risk prediction tool was developed based on the modified model.

CONCLUSIONS

The RRS was an independent predictor of ESRD of AAV patients. The modified model could predict the probability of ESRD for AAV patients with improved performance in Chinese AAV patients.

Evaluation of a renal risk score for Japanese patients with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis in a multi-center cohort study

Background

In patients with anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated glomerulonephritis, prediction of renal survival should guide the choice of therapy, but a prediction of the histological classification has inconsistencies.

Objectives

To evaluate the usefulness of renal risk score (RRS) for Japanese patients with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN) and compare the prediction for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) between RRS and the histological classification.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 96 patients with AAGN who underwent a renal biopsy. Renal survival was categorized by RRS, and the histological classification was assessed separately. We compared the predictive values for RRS and the histological classification.

Results

The median observational period was 37.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 21.5-77.0) months. The median RRS point at the time of renal biopsy was 2 (IQR 0-7.8), and the patients were categorized into low- (n = 29), medium- (n = 43), and high-risk groups (n = 24) using RRS. As expected, the renal prognosis was the worst in the "high-risk" group and the best in the "low-risk" group. In the histological classification, the survival deteriorated progressively from "focal" (best) to "mixed," "crescentic," and "sclerotic" (worst) classes, different from the order in the original proposal for this system. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that RRS was independently associated with ESRD. The difference in prediction for renal survival between RRS and the histological classification was not significant using area under receiver-operating-characteristic curves.

Conclusion

We evaluated the usefulness of RRS in Japanese patients with AAGN and found it a stable predictor of renal survival in such patients.

Histopathological prognostic factors in ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis

Anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) are a group of multisystemic autoimmune diseases characterized by necrotizing inflammation of small vessels. Kidney involvement is frequent in granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA) and microscopic polyangiitis (MPA), and accounts for a significant proportion of the morbidity and mortality related to these diseases. Despite improvement in therapeutic management of ANCA-glomerulonephritis (ANCA-GN), end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) still occurs in up to 30% of affected patients within 5 years following diagnosis. Thus, identifying patients for whom aggressive immunosuppressive therapy will be more beneficial than deleterious is of great importance. Several clinical, biological and histological factors have been proposed as predictors of ESKD. The kidney biopsy is essential not only for the diagnosis, but also for evaluating renal prognosis. In this review, we discuss the prognostic value of renal lesions at the diagnosis of ANCA-GN by analyzing each compartment of the nephron. We also review existing ESKD risk classification in ANCA-GN and finally propose an example of a standardized pathology report that could be used in routine practice.

Assessment of Renal Risk Score and Histopathological Classification for Prediction of End-Stage Kidney Disease and Factors Associated With Change in eGFR After ANCA-Glomerulonephritis Diagnosis

Introduction

The “Renal Risk Score” (RRS) and the histopathological classification have been proposed to predict the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis (ANCA-GN). Besides, factors associated with kidney function recovery after ANCA-GN onset remain to be more extensively studied. In the present study, we analyzed the value of the RRS and of the histopathological classification for ESKD prediction. Next, we analyzed factors associated with eGFR change within the first 2 years following ANCA-GN diagnosis.

Materials and Methods

We included patients from the Maine–Anjou ANCA-associated vasculitis registry with at least 6 months of follow-up. The values of ANCA-GN, histopathological classification, and RRS, and the factors associated with eGFR variations between ANCA-GN diagnosis and 2 years of follow-up were assessed.

Results

The predictive values of the histopathological classification and RRS were analyzed in 123 patients. After a median follow-up of 42 months, 33.3% patients developed ESKD. The predictive value of RRS for ESKD was greater than that of the histopathological classification. Determinants of eGFR variation were assessed in 80/123 patients with complete eGFR measurement. The median eGFR increased from ANCA-GN diagnosis to month 6 and stabilized thereafter. The only factor associated with eGFR variation in our study was eGFR at ANCA-GN diagnosis, with higher eGFR at diagnosis being associated with eGFR loss (p<0.001).

Conclusion

The RRS has a better predictive value for ESKD than the histopathological classification. The main determinant of eGFR variation at 2 years was eGFR at ANCA-GN diagnosis. Thus, this study suggests that eGFR recovery is poorly predicted by histological damage at ANCA-GN diagnosis.

Evaluation of a newly proposed renal risk score for Japanese patients with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis

BACKGROUND

We determined the usefulness and prognostic ability of the renal risk score (RRS), proposed in Europe, for Japanese patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN) and high myeloperoxidase (MPO)-ANCA positivity; these aspects remain to be verified.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted on 86 Japanese patients with new, biopsy-confirmed AAGN. We calculated the RRS and analyzed the relationship between this classification, and clinicopathological features and prognosis. We also compared the predictive values between RRS for endpoints including renal death and conventional prognostic tools for patients with AAGN.

RESULTS

There were 33, 37, and 16 patients in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively. All patients were MPO-ANCA positive. The median follow-up period was 33 months; 16 (18.6%) patients progressed to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). In the high-risk group, 9/16 (56.3%) patients progressed to ESRD, and renal prognosis was significantly poorer than that in other groups (low-risk group, P < 0.001; medium-risk group, P = 0.004). In Cox multivariate regression analysis, RRS was an independent, poor renal prognostic factor (hazard ratio 5.22; 95% confidence interval 2.20-12.40; P < 0.001). The receiver-operating characteristic curves of the RRS for each endpoint were comparable with those of the 2010 histological classification and those of the severity classification of Japanese rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to report the usefulness of the RRS for predicting renal outcomes among Japanese patients with AAGN. Our predictive value of the RRS was comparable with that of conventional prognostic tools.

Meta-Analytical Accuracy of ANCA Renal Risk Score for Prediction of Renal Outcome in Patients With ANCA-Associated Glomerulonephritis

Background: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) renal risk score (ARRS) for prediction of renal outcome in patients with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis (ANCA-GN).

Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Ovid, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov for studies, which used ARRS to predict end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with ANCA-GN. Two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion, assessed the quality of studies with both an adapted Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) tool. We calculated the combined patients with ESRD in the ARRS categories and presented the summary and individual estimates based on the ARRS categories. Then, the sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), positive/negative likelihood ratio, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves of the pooled data for ARRS were used to assess the accuracy of the “above the low-risk threshold” (ARRS ≥ 2) and “high-risk grade” (ARRS ≥ 8) for renal outcome of patients with ANCA-GN. The hierarchical summary ROC (HSROC) was used to verify the accuracy value. The clinical utility of ARRS was evaluated by the Fagan plot. Heterogeneity was explored using meta-regression and subgroup analysis.

Results: A total of 12 distinct cohorts from 11 articles involving 1,568 patients with ANCA-GN were analyzed. The cumulative patients with ESRD at the maximum follow-up of 60 months was 5% (95% CI: 0.02–0.07; p < 0.001) for ANCA-GN with low ARRS (0–1 points) and significantly increased to 22% (95% CI: 0.15–0.29; p < 0.001) medium ARRS (2–7 points). The combined cumulative patients with ESRD was 59% (95% CI: 0.49–0.69; p < 0.001) high ARRS (8–11 points). The pooled sensitivity of ARRS ≥ 2 in predicting ESRD was 98% with a specificity of 30% and a DOR of 15.08 and the mean AUROC value was 0.82. The pooled sensitivity of ARRS ≥ 8 in predicting ESRD was 58% with a specificity of 86% and a DOR of 7.59. The meta-regression and subgroup analysis indicated that variation in the geographic regions, study design, index risk, follow-up time, age of patient, publication year, and number of patient could be the potential sources of heterogeneity in the diagnosis of ARRS ≥ 8.

Conclusion: This meta-analysis emphasized the good performance of the ARRS score in predicting the renal outcome in patients with ANCA-GN. However, these findings should be verified by future large-scale prospective studies.

Reappraisal of Renal Arteritis in ANCA-associated Vasculitis: Clinical Characteristics, Pathology, and Outcome

BACKGROUND

Renal involvement in ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) is associated with poor outcomes. The clinical significance of arteritis of the small kidney arteries has not been evaluated in detail.

METHODS

In a multicenter cohort of patients with AAV and renal involvement, we sought to describe the clinicopathologic characteristics of patients with AAV who had renal arteritis at diagnosis, and to retrospectively analyze their prognostic value.

RESULTS

We included 251 patients diagnosed with AAV and renal involvement between 2000 and 2019, including 34 patients (13.5%) with arteritis. Patients with AAV-associated arteritis were older, and had a more pronounced inflammatory syndrome compared with patients without arteritis; they also had significantly lower renal survival (P=0.01). In multivariable analysis, the ANCA renal risk score, age at diagnosis, history of diabetes mellitus, and arteritis on index kidney biopsy were independently associated with ESKD. The addition of the arteritis status significantly improved the discrimination of the ANCA renal risk score, with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.77 for the ANCA renal risk score alone, versus a C-index of 0.80 for the ANCA renal risk score plus arteritis status (P=0.008); ESKD-free survival was significantly worse for patients with an arteritis involving small arteries who were classified as having low or moderate risk, according to the ANCA renal risk score. In two external validation cohorts, we confirmed the incidence and phenotype of this AAV subtype.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest AAV with renal arteritis represents a different subtype of AAV with specific clinical and histologic characteristics. The prognostic contribution of the arteritis status remains to be prospectively confirmed.