Influence of weather factors on population dynamics of two lagomorph species based on hunting bag records

Drivers of spatio-temporal population dynamics of game species in a mountain landscape

Since the end of the nineteenth century, socio-economic changes have greatly altered the Central European landscape and the structural and functional quality of habitats. Urban sprawl areas have appeared, a reduction of multiple forest uses has resulted in the densification of forests and agricultural land use has changed fundamentally through specialisation and intensification. Many of these changes affect biodiversity. To determine the important drivers of spatio-temporal dynamics of the population of 28 game species, we first considered a total of 130 potential explanatory variables. Second, we aggregated the main drivers of single-species models for habitat guilds. Third, we evaluated the results to aid in the development and implementation of mitigation measures for different ecoregions. We used harvest data as a surrogate for population density from 1875 to 2014 in South Tyrol, Italy. In generalised linear models, we used environmental characteristics such as climate, landscape diversity and structures, land cover, hunting, wildlife diseases, competition and predation, land-use type, and intensity (including pesticide use) as explanatory variables to predict the spatio-temporal dynamics of game species. The important drivers are land use and management changes (intensification in the agriculturally favourable areas, extensification or abandonment in the unfavourable areas) as well as associated changes in the landscape features, diversity and structure, and hunting management. Climatic variables, interspecific competition and diseases only play a subordinate role. The dynamics of the habitat guilds and their drivers provide concrete indications for measures to maintain or improve the habitat quality for the investigated species. Particularly important are transfer payments to ensure extensive agricultural use, increasingly through the takeover of personnel costs, but also for the installation of an independent body that monitors and evaluates the effectiveness of the measures.

Age-specific effects of density and weather on body condition and birth rates in a large herbivore, the Przewalski's horse

Reproduction in young females can show a particularly sensitive response to environmental challenges, although empirical support from individual-based long-term studies is scarce. Based on a 20-year data set from a free-roaming Przewalski's horse population (Equus ferus przewalskii), we studied effects of large-herbivore density (horses + cattle) and weather conditions experienced during different life stages on females' annual birth rates. Foaling probability was very low in 2-year-olds, reaching maximum values in 5 to 10-year-olds, followed by a decrease in older females indicating reproductive senescence. Mother's previous reproductive investment affected her current reproduction; young and old mothers (as opposed to middle-aged ones), which had nursed a foal for at least 60 days during the previous year, reproduced with a lower probability. Foaling probability and body condition of young females were lower when large-herbivore density was high. Reproduction was also influenced by interactive weather effects during different life stages. Low late-summer precipitation during the females' year of birth was associated with a pronounced decrease in foaling probability in response to harsh late-winter temperatures prior to the mating season. In turn, increased amounts of late-summer rain during this early age together with more late-summer rain during the females' current pregnancy led to an increased reproductive probability in 2-3-year-olds. These results were corroborated by the ameliorating effects of late-summer rain on body condition in such females. In conclusion, our findings highlight the interactive importance of weather conditions experienced during early life, and of density and weather during current pregnancy on foaling probability, particularly in young females.

Pathomorphological Findings and Infectious Diseases in Selected European Brown Hare (Lepus europaeus Pallas, 1778) Populations from Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

In the northernmost German federal state Schleswig-Holstein, populations of European brown hares (Lepus europaeus Pallas, 1778) show diverse densities and varying courses over the years. To examine differences in pathomorphological findings and infectious diseases as possible reasons for varying population dynamics, we assessed 155 hunted hares from three locations in Schleswig-Holstein from 2016 to 2020. We investigated the association of location, year, age, and sex of animals to certain pathomorphological findings and infectious diseases. Frequent pathomorphological findings were intestinal parasites (63.9%), hepatitis (55.5%), nephritis (31.0%), steatitis (23.2%), enteritis (13.5%), and pneumonia (5.2%). Body condition differed significantly between locations, and the prevalence of pneumonia was significantly higher in females. Enteritis was not detected in 2019, when much more juveniles were sampled. Hepatitis and nephritis occurred significantly more often in 2016 and among adults. Additionally, more adults showed hepatitis with concurrent serotitre for European brown hare syndrome virus (EBHSV), while intestinal parasitosis as well as high excretion rates of coccidia were more common in juveniles. Sampled animals showed high infection rates with Eimeria spp. (96.1%), Trichostrongylus spp. (52.0%), Graphidium strigosum (41.2%), and a high seroprevalence (90.9%) for EBHSV, without severe symptoms. This study revealed a low prevalence of infectious pathogens, but a high prevalence of chronic inflammations of unknown origin in the tested brown hare populations. Overall, our results indicate a rather minor importance of infectious diseases for observed population dynamics of analysed hare populations in Schleswig-Holstein.

Long-term game species dynamic as indicator for changing landscape quality

Urban sprawl, increased traffic and modern forestry, as well as the globalisation of agriculture, have increasingly been affecting the landscape and its quality as habitat for species especially since the middle of the last century. Still, there are hardly any methods nor indicators which can measure the quality of the landscape for species over a long period. In this study, we investigated the influence of landscape structure and landscape quality on harvest data of 28 game species in South Tyrol, Italy, over the last 150 years. The harvest data were used to assess the population dynamics of individual species and habitat guilds since 1870. As a first result, we could show, on the examples of six species, that count population data were highly correlated with harvest data and are therefore well suited to estimate their population size. Second, the populations of ungulates consistently increased during the study period. The numbers of mesocarnivores as well as smaller forest and alpine game species increased strongly until the 1970s/80s of the last century, followed by a decline. The populations of farmland species and some synanthropic species have decreased substantially, and some species have even disappeared completely. Based on these results, we were able to show, in a third step, that the landscape quality for game species in South Tyrol has developed differently: In particular, the agriculturally used habitats have lost quality, whereas forests and alpine regions have initially gained quality due to the extensification of use; during the last five decades, the quality decreases again, at least for small game species. Our results thus provide concrete implications for the active improvement of the landscape quality for farmland and forest species, as well as indications for future priorities in funding support of alpine pasture management.

Status of Infectious Diseases in Free-Ranging European Brown Hares (Lepus europaeus) Found Dead between 2017 and 2020 in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

The European brown hare (Lepus europaeus) is a quite adaptable species, but populations have been decreasing for several decades in different countries, including Germany. To investigate infectious diseases as possible influences on observed population decline in the German federal state Schleswig-Holstein, 118 deceased free-ranging European brown hares were collected between 2017 and 2020 and underwent detailed postmortem examination with extended sampling. Infectious diseases were a major cause of death (34.7%). The number of juveniles found exceeded the adult ones. The main pathomorphological findings were hepatitis (32.8%), pneumonia (22.2%), nephritis (19.1%), liver necrosis (12.9%), and enteritis (40.7%). An unusual main finding was steatitis (20.9%) of unknown origin. Animals were mainly emaciated and showed high infection rates with Eimeria spp. (91.3%) and Trichostrongylus spp. (36.2%). European Brown Hare Syndrome Virus reached an epidemic status with few fatal infections (4.2%) and high seroprevalence (64.9%), whereas the prevalence of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus 2 was very low (0.8%) in hares in Schleswig-Holstein. Pathogens such as Yersinia pseudotuberculosis (5.9%), Pasteurella multocida (0.8%), and Staphylococcus aureus (3.4%) only caused sporadic deaths. This study illustrates the wide distribution of various infectious pathogens with high mortality and even zoonotic potential. Infectious diseases need to be considered as an important influence on population dynamics in Schleswig-Holstein.

Co-occurrence patterns and habitat selection of the mountain hare, European hare, and European rabbit in urban areas of Sweden

Assessing the underlying mechanisms of species co-occurrence patterns can be challenging as biotic and abiotic factors are hard to disentangle. To date, few studies have investigated co-occurrence patterns of mammals within urban areas. As urban areas are increasingly used as habitat by wildlife, there is a need for a better understanding of urban ecology to facilitate human-wildlife co-existence. Here, we investigated co-occurrence patterns and habitat selection of the European hare (Lepus europaeus), mountain hare (L. timidus), and European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) inside urban areas of Sweden, using joint species distribution models and generalized linear mixed models based on citizen science observations. All three species were observed within urban areas, but European hares and rabbits appear to be more successful urban colonizers compared to mountain hares. Overall, our findings suggested that urban occurrence by all three lagomorphs was related to suitable conditions within the distribution of each species (e.g., climate and elevation), rather than by the presence of other lagomorph species or specific land cover types within urban areas. On a finer spatial scale, European hares and rabbits generally selected for green urban areas and mountain hares for residential gardens, which likely constitute suitable foraging sites. Moreover, overlap in activity times between European hares and rabbits was mediated by land cover type and sympatry. Our findings contribute to the understanding of urban ecology and provide insights for management measures of the three lagomorphs in urban areas of Sweden.

Roadkills as a Method to Monitor Raccoon Dog Populations

The raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) is one of the most frequently killed species on Lithuanian roads. As an invasive species, up-to-date knowledge of population size, trends and spatial distribution is critically important both for species assessment and for the planning of control measures. In Lithuania, however, raccoon dog surveys have not been carried out since 1997. We investigated, therefore, whether roadkill counts on predefined routes could be used as a proxy for a survey. Our dataset includes survey numbers for the period 1956-1997, hunting bag sizes for 1965-2020 (including the spatial distribution of the hunting bag in 2018-2020) and roadkill data relating to 1551 individuals between 2002-2020. At the most local scale, that of the hunting areas of hunting clubs, correlations between the numbers of hunted and roadkilled individuals were negative and insignificant or absent. At the country scale, however, we found significant correlation both between the numbers surveyed and hunted in 1965-1997 (r = 0.88), and between those hunted and the number of roadkills in 2002-2020 (r = 0.56-0.69). Therefore, we consider that roadkill counts on predefined and stable routes may be used as a proxy for a survey at the country scale. Practical implementation of the method is proposed.

A graph spatial-temporal model for predicting population density of key areas

Predicting the population density of key areas of the city is crucial. It helps reduce the spread risk of Covid-19 and predict individuals' travel needs. Although current researches focus on using the method of clustering to predict the population density, there is almost no discussion about using spatial-temporal models to predict the population density of key areas in a city without using actual regional images. We abstract 997 key areas and their regional connections into a graph structure and propose a model called Word Embedded Spatial-temporal Graph Convolutional Network (WE-STGCN). WE-STGCN is mainly composed of the Spatial Convolution Layer, the Temporal Convolution Layer, and the Feature Component. Based on the data set provided by the DataFountain platform, we evaluate the model and compare it with some typical models. Experimental results show that WE-STGCN has 53.97% improved to baselines on average and can commendably predicting the population density of key areas.

Habitat requirements of the European brown hare (Lepus europaeus PALLAS 1778) in an intensively used agriculture region (Lower Saxony, Germany)

Background

The European brown hare (Lepus europaeus) typically resides in open habitats in agriculturally dominated landscapes in Europe. Over recent decades, a widely observed population decline occurred, which was attributed to agricultural intensification. However, with political incentives for specific crops, especially maize for energy production, the habitat went through massive changes. Thus, there is the need to identify parameters that characterize a suitable habitat for the brown hare in today’s agricultural lands.

Results

We modelled European brown hare densities spatially and temporally explicit over 10 years (2005–2014) across an entire federal state. The generalized additive mixed model confirms a constant decline of the European brown hare population in Lower Saxony. Municipalities with a high proportion of grassland and precipitation totaling up to 900 mm are more favored. Woodland showed an approximately linear negative effect. The most important agricultural crop groups such as winter grains and winter oilseed rape showed overall positive effects on hare densities. However, the effect of maize was unimodal, with a positive effect of medium proportions, but a negative effect of very high proportions. The effect of sugar beet was relatively weak but negative. Brown hares were also more abundant in municipalities with a higher density of vixen with litter and municipalities with a high proportion of wildflower strips showed higher brown hare abundance.

Conclusion

Lower Saxony is a diverse federal state with grassland dominated areas in the northwest, more woodland in the east, but intensive arable land in most remaining areas. The European brown hare—a species with a wide ecological potency—shows preferences to both grassland and the most typical arable crop groups such as winter grains and winter oilseed rape. The substantial increase in maize production within the time frame was likely unfavourable and may be one reason for the decline. Nonetheless, political tools such as the agri-environmental scheme “wildflower strips” were beneficial for the brown hare abundance and may be an option to reverse the decline seen over the 10 years.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12898-019-0247-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Latitude and daily-weather effects on gobbling activity of wild turkeys in Mississippi

Weather has been recognized as a density independent factor influencing the abundance, distribution, and behavior of vertebrates. Male wild turkeys' (Meleagris gallopavo) breeding behavior includes vocalizations and courtship displays to attract females, the phenology of which can vary with latitude. State biologists design spring turkey-hunting season frameworks centered on annual vocalization patterns to maximize hunter engagement. The Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks has traditionally instituted a statewide, 7-week, spring harvest season. However, hunters routinely argue that different peaks in gobbling activity across the state exist. The objective of this study was to determine whether differences in peak gobbling activity existed across a latitudinal gradient of Mississippi and assess the effect of weather on gobbling. During 2008 and 2009, we conducted a statewide gobbling survey. We used generalized additive mixed models to describe the probability and frequency of gobbling activity within northern and southern regions of the state. We also investigated the effect of daily weather conditions on gobbling activity. Our results revealed an approximate 10-14-day difference in peak gobbling activity between southern and northern Mississippi. The majority of all gobbling activity occurred within the current spring harvest framework. Perhaps more importantly, gobbling activity was more prevalent on days of regionally dry conditions (i.e., less humid) according to the Spatial Synoptic Classification. Our results provide information on gobbling activity phenology relative to hunting-season dates and weather-response information. Our approach may be particularly applicable in states with relatively shorter seasons or highly variable daily weather conditions that moderate gobbling frequency.

Estimating Sustainable Harvest Rates for European Hare (Lepus Europaeus) Populations

Hunting quotas are used to manage populations of game species in order to ensure sustainable exploitation. However, unpredictable climatic events may interact with hunting. We established a population model for European hares (Lepus europaeus) in Lower Austria. We compared the sustainability of voluntary quotas used by hunters—which are derived from hare-specific guidelines—with the actual numbers of hares shot and our recommended quotas for hares, which have been derived from climate and population modeling. We used population modeling based on vital rates and densities to adjust our recommended quotas in order to achieve sustainable harvest. The survival of age classes 1 and 3 had the highest impact on the population growth rate. Population viability analysis showed that a recommended quota with a harvest rate of 10% was sustainable for population densities of 45 hares/km2, and that the threshold for hunting should be raised from 10 hares/km2 so that hare populations with <15 hares/km2 are not hunted. The recommended quota outperformed the voluntary hunting quota, since more hares could be harvested sustainably. Age Class 1 survival was strongly linked with weather: a single year with unfavorable weather conditions (low precipitation) negatively affected population densities. Game species, including the European hare, face increasingly frequent weather extremes due to climate change, so hunting quotas need to be sensitive to frequent population fluctuations.

Socially mediated effects of climate change decrease survival of hibernating Alpine marmots

In the context of global change, an increasing challenge is to understand the interaction between weather variables and life histories. Species-specific life histories should condition the way climate influences population dynamics, particularly those that are associated with environmental constraints, such as lifestyles like hibernation and sociality. However, the influence of lifestyle in the response of organisms to climate change remains poorly understood. Based on a 23-year longitudinal study on Alpine marmots, we investigated how their lifestyle, characterized by a long hibernation and a high degree of sociality, interacts with the ongoing climate change to shape temporal variation in age-specific survival. As generally reported in other hibernating species, we expected survival of Alpine marmots to be affected by the continuous lengthening of the growing season of plants more than by changes in winter conditions. We found, however, that Alpine marmots displayed lower juvenile survival over time. Colder winters associated with a thinner snow layer lowered juvenile survival, which in turn was associated with a decrease in the relative number of helpers in groups the following years, and therefore lowered the chances of over-winter survival of juveniles born in the most recent years. Our results provide evidence that constraints on life-history traits associated with hibernation and sociality caused juvenile survival to decrease over time, which might prevent Alpine marmots coping successfully with climate change.

Climate factors related to localized changes in snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) occupancy

Information on climate that influences snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) can inform adaptation strategies. We identified climate factors correlated with localized changes in occupancy of snowshoe hares in Michigan, USA. A change in occupancy occurred if a site (∼7.5 ha) knowingly occupied by hares sometime in the past became unoccupied. We used local ecological knowledge to map sites where hares historically occurred and to assign a year of last-known occupancy. At 134 historically occupied sites, we conducted snow track surveys in 2013 to determine current occupancy status. We identified climate variables having relevance to hare population demographics and modeled the likelihood that those variables influenced current occupancy status. The top-ranking model included maximum temperature from 15 May to 19 January; as maximum temperature increased, the likelihood of a site becoming unoccupied increased. The second-ranked model included total number of days with measurable snow on the ground; as days with snow on the ground decreased, the likelihood of a site becoming unoccupied increased. Our data indicated that site occupancy status of hares can be described by climate variables and that the southern edge of snowshoe hare distribution in Michigan shifted northward by ∼45 km over the last 20 years.

Crop diversity loss as primary cause of grey partridge and common pheasant decline in Lower Saxony, Germany

BACKGROUND

The grey partridge (Perdix perdix) and the common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) are galliform birds typical of arable lands in Central Europe and exhibit a partly dramatic negative population trend. In order to understand general habitat preferences we modelled grey partridge and common pheasant densities over the entire range of Lower Saxony. Spatially explicit developments in bird densities were modelled using spatially explicit trends of crop cultivation. Pheasant and grey partridge densities counted annually by over 8000 hunting district holders over 10 years in a range of 3.7 Mio ha constitute a unique dataset (wildlife survey of Lower Saxony). Data on main landscape groups, functional groups of agricultural crops (consisting of 9.5 million fields compiled by the Integrated Administration and Control System) and landscape features were aggregated to 420 municipalities. To model linear 8 or 10 year population trends (for common pheasant and grey partridge respectively) we use rho correlation coefficients of densities, but also rho coefficients of agricultural crops.

RESULTS

All models confirm a dramatic decline in population densities. The habitat model for the grey partridge shows avoidance of municipalities with a high proportion of woodland and water areas, but a preference for areas with a high proportion of winter grains and high crop diversity. The trend model confirms these findings with a linear positive effect of diversity on grey partridge population development. Similarly, the pheasant avoids wooded areas but showed some preference for municipalities with open water. The effect of maize was found to be positive at medium densities, but negative at very high proportions. Winter grains, landscape features and high crop diversity are favorable. The positive effect of winter grains and higher crop diversity is also supported by the trend model.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show the strong importance of diverse crop cultivation. Most incentives favor the cultivation of specific crops, which results in large areas of monocultures. The results confirm the importance of sustainable agricultural policies.

Social environment and weather during early life influence gastro-intestinal parasite loads in a group-living mammal

Conditions experienced during early life have been frequently shown to exert long-term consequences on an animal's fitness. In mammals and birds, the time around and shortly after weaning is one of the crucial periods early in life. However, little is known about how social and abiotic environmental conditions experienced around this time affect fitness-related traits such as endoparasite loads. We studied consequences of social interactions and rainy weather conditions around and after weaning on gastro-intestinal nematode loads in juvenile European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus. Infestations with the gastric nematode Graphidium strigosum and with the intestinal nematode Passalurus ambiguus were higher in animals experiencing more rain during early life. This might have been due to the higher persistence of nematodes' infective stages outside the host body together with the animals' lower energy allocation for immune defence under more humid and thus energetically challenging conditions. In contrast, infestations with P. ambiguus were lower in animals with more positive social interactions with mother and litter siblings. We propose that social support provided by familiar group members buffered negative stress effects on immune function, lowering endoparasite infestations. This is supported by the negative correlation between positive social behaviour and serum corticosterone concentrations, indicating lower stress in juveniles which integrated more successfully into the social network of their group. In conclusion, the findings offer a pathway showing how differences in the abiotic environment and social life conditions experienced early in life could translate into long-term fitness consequences via the effects on endoparasite loads.

Kill rates by rabbit hunters before and 16 years after introduction of rabbit haemorrhagic disease in the southern South Island, New Zealand

Context European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) are serious economic and environmental pests in Australia and New Zealand. Since the illegal introduction of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) in New Zealand in 1997, the disease has persisted in most rabbit populations, with major epizootics occurring usually each autumn. Aims We evaluated the efficacy of the virus as a biological control agent in the southern South Island. Methods We used an index of rabbit abundance (kills per hunter) based on a region-wide annual rabbit-hunting competition to evaluate rabbit population trends 7 years before and 16 years after the first outbreak of RHD. We also evaluated the influence of rainfall and temperature in the preceding year on post-RHD trends in the index. Key results Kill rates declined by 60% following the initial epizootic. They remained low for the following 3 years and then increased steadily to intermediate levels punctuated by occasional declines. The instantaneous rate of increase in kill rates during the increase phase was low, but above zero (0.04 per year). No relationship between kill rates and rainfall was apparent, but there was a negative relationship between kill rates and winter temperature in the preceding season. Conclusions The kill-rate data obtained from this hunting competition suggest that RHD still appears to be killing rabbits. Every 2–3 years over the past decade, kill rates have been as low as they were when government rabbit-control programs were in place before RHD arrived, but the efficacy of RHD as a biological control agent is waning compared with the first outbreaks of the disease. This concurs with findings based on spotlight counts. Implications The data collected from this hunting competition are a good example of how ‘citizen science’ can be used to capture large volumes of pest-monitoring data from a wide geographic region for very little cost. The information is a valuable addition to understanding the effects of a major wildlife disease.