A county-level study of the effects of state-mandated COVID-19 lockdowns on urban and rural restaurant visits using consumers' cell phone geo-location data

Excess natural-cause mortality in US counties and its association with reported COVID-19 deaths

In the United States, estimates of excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently surpassed reported COVID-19 death counts. Excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. The geographic and temporal distribution of these deaths may help to evaluate which explanation is most plausible. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce monthly estimates of excess natural-cause mortality for US counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic. From March 2020 through August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred nationally [90% PI (Posterior Interval): 1,046,000 to 1,340,204]. A total of 162,886 of these excess natural-cause deaths (90% PI: 14,276 to 308,480) were not reported to COVID-19. Overall, 15.8 excess deaths were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes for every 100 reported COVID-19 deaths. This number was greater in nonmetropolitan counties (36.0 deaths), the West (Rocky Mountain states: 31.6 deaths; Pacific states: 25.5 deaths), and the South (East South Central states: 26.0 deaths; South Atlantic states: 25.0 deaths; West South Central states: 24.2 deaths). In contrast, reported COVID-19 death counts surpassed estimates of excess natural-cause deaths in metropolitan counties in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated temporally with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same and/or prior month. This suggests that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.

Using Mobile Phone Data to Assess Socio-Economic Disparities in Unhealthy Food Reliance during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: Although COVID-19 has disproportionately affected socio-economically vulnerable populations, research on its impact on socio-economic disparities in unhealthy food reliance remains scarce. Methods: This study uses mobile phone data to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on socio-economic disparities in reliance on convenience stores and fast food. Reliance is defined in terms of the proportion of visits to convenience stores out of the total visits to both convenience and grocery stores, and the proportion of visits to fast food restaurants out of the total visits to both fast food and full-service restaurants. Visits to each type of food outlet at the county level were traced and aggregated using mobile phone data before being analyzed with socio-economic demographics and COVID-19 incidence data. Results: Our findings suggest that a new COVID-19 case per 1,000 population decreased a county's odds of relying on convenience stores by 3.41% and increased its odds of fast food reliance by 0.72%. As a county's COVID-19 incidence rate rises by an additional case per 1,000 population, the odds of relying on convenience stores increased by 0.01%, 0.02%, and 0.06% for each additional percentage of Hispanics, college-educated residents, and every additional year in median age, respectively. For fast food reliance, as a county's COVID-19 incidence rate increases by one case per 1,000 population, the odds decreased by 0.003% for every additional percentage of Hispanics but increased by 0.02% for every additional year in the county's median age. Conclusion: These results complement existing literature to promote equitable food environments.

Sentiment analysis of restaurant customer satisfaction during COVID-19 pandemic in Pattaya, Thailand

The tourism and hospitality industry, particularly the restaurant business, has been greatly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. To comprehend customer behavior and preferences during this unprecedented time, it is crucial to analyze online restaurant customer reviews. Thus, this study utilized the valence aware dictionary for sentiment reasoning (VADER) model to examine TripAdvisor reviews of restaurants in Pattaya City, Chon Buri, Thailand, covering the period 2017-2022, which encompasses both pre-pandemic and pandemic years. The findings reveal a significant decrease in the number of reviews and a notable increase in negative sentiments during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to normal circumstances. We noticed two concern areas, i.e., service and staff, and food and taste, that should be addressed urgently. The findings of this study offer valuable insights into customer behavior and requirements, thereby empowering restaurant businesses to enhance service quality, satisfy customer requirements, and strategically plan for a post-COVID-19 future.

Diverged landscape of restaurant recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic has imposed catastrophic impacts on the restaurant industry as a crucial socioeconomic sector that contributes to the global economy. However, the understanding of how the restaurant industry was recovered from COVID-19 remains underexplored. This study constructs a spatially explicit evaluation of the effect of COVID-19 on the restaurant industry in the US, drawing on the attributes of +200,000 restaurants from Yelp and +600 million individual-level restaurant visitations provided by SafeGraph from 1st January 2019 to 31st December 2021. We produce quantitative evidence of lost restaurant visitations and revenue amid the pandemic, the changes in the customers' origins, and the retained visitation law of human mobility-the number of restaurant visitations decreases as the inverse square of their travel distances-though such a distance-decay effect becomes marginal at the later pandemic. Our findings support policy makers to monitor economic relief and design place-based policies for economic recovery.

A scoping review of the impacts of COVID-19 physical distancing measures on vulnerable population groups

Most governments have enacted physical or social distancing measures to control COVID-19 transmission. Yet little is known about the socio-economic trade-offs of these measures, especially for vulnerable populations, who are exposed to increased risks and are susceptible to adverse health outcomes. To examine the impacts of physical distancing measures on the most vulnerable in society, this scoping review screened 39,816 records and synthesised results from 265 studies worldwide documenting the negative impacts of physical distancing on older people, children/students, low-income populations, migrant workers, people in prison, people with disabilities, sex workers, victims of domestic violence, refugees, ethnic minorities, and people from sexual and gender minorities. We show that prolonged loneliness, mental distress, unemployment, income loss, food insecurity, widened inequality and disruption of access to social support and health services were unintended consequences of physical distancing that impacted these vulnerable groups and highlight that physical distancing measures exacerbated the vulnerabilities of different vulnerable populations.

Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Customers’ Dining-Out Activities in South Korea

This study classified the types of dining-out activities into three categories: visiting restaurants, using delivery services, and using take-out services to understand how customers’ various dining-out activities were carried out during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study used the Theory of Planed Behavior (TPB) model to analyze the structural relationship between the main factors and three dining-out activities. An online survey method was used to distribute and collect survey link addresses through respondents’ SNS and e-mail and a data analysis was performed on the final 429(85.8%) effective samples. A paired t-test and structural equation modeling (SEM) were used to investigate customers’ dining-out activities. This study is of significant contribution in that it compared and analyzed customers’ various dining-out activities using the TPB model, laid the theoretical foundation for related research, and suggested ways to help related industry workers establish marketing strategies under the pandemic.

Exploring the spatial disparity of home-dwelling time patterns in the USA during the COVID-19 pandemic via Bayesian inference

In this study, we aim to reveal hidden patterns and confounders associated with policy implementation and adherence by investigating the home-dwelling stages from a data-driven perspective via Bayesian inference with weakly informative priors and by examining how home-dwelling stages in the USA varied geographically, using fine-grained, spatial-explicit home-dwelling time records from a multi-scale perspective. At the U.S. national level, two changepoints are identified, with the former corresponding to March 22, 2020 (9 days after the White House declared the National Emergency on March 13) and the latter corresponding to May 17, 2020. Inspections at U.S. state and county level reveal notable spatial disparity in home-dwelling stage-related variables. A pilot study in the Atlanta Metropolitan area at the Census Tract level reveals that the self-quarantine duration and increase in home-dwelling time are strongly correlated with the median household income, echoing existing efforts that document the economic inequity exposed by the U.S. stay-at-home orders. To our best knowledge, our work marks a pioneering effort to explore multi-scale home-dwelling patterns in the USA from a purely data-driven perspective and in a statistically robust manner.

Food Supply Chain Shocks and the Pivot Toward Local: Lessons From the Global Pandemic

Studies of how consumers acquired food provisions during the COVID-19 lockdown indicate that some US consumers and institutional provisioners pivoted to locally produced food. In some locations local food system organizations, along with state governments, created the infrastructure to enable this pivot. Research on this phenomenon—what we call “the local pivot”—has been extensive. However, evidence collected so far has mostly been reports of case studies looking at particular communities. Using Google Trends and Twitter data, we examine whether “the local pivot” was evident as a general trend in the US during the depth of the COVID-19 food supply crisis in 2020, and whether places with high local food infrastructure allowed more people to pivot to local food provisioning. Our Google Trends analysis indicated a temporary rise in searches for local food. However, we found very little discussion of local food systems on Twitter. We then compared three states with a “high,” “medium,” and “low” local food infrastructure based on the Union of Concerned Scientists rankings. We found a weak but positive relationship between places that were classified as high local food system infrastructure and a pivot toward local food reflected on Twitter. We did, however, find strong support for local restaurant businesses during this period on Twitter, although this support did not necessarily reflect a local food system pivot. We acknowledge that Twitter results are not generalizable to the entire population: local food system actors may not be using Twitter in their interactions, so Twitter activity may not reflect local food system activity in general, or COVID food sourcing behavior in particular. However, our results do indicate the need for more research on whether or not the evidence of a pivot to local food systems during COVID in the United States reflected a larger national movement or occurred in just a few scattered communities. Further research on this topic can help ascertain the ability of local food system infrastructure to provide a resilient response to future global food supply chain crises.

Association of stay-at-home orders and COVID-19 incidence and mortality in rural and urban United States: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

We examined the association between stay-at-home order implementation and the incidence of COVID-19 infections and deaths in rural versus urban counties of the United States.

DESIGN

We used an interrupted time-series analysis using a mixed effects zero-inflated Poisson model with random intercept by county and standardised by population to examine the associations between stay-at-home orders and county-level counts of daily new COVID-19 cases and deaths in rural versus urban counties between 22 January 2020 and 10 June 2020. We secondarily examined the association between stay-at-home orders and mobility in rural versus urban counties using Google Community Mobility Reports.

INTERVENTIONS

Issuance of stay-at-home orders.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Co-primary outcomes were COVID-19 daily incidence of cases (14-day lagged) and mortality (26-day lagged). Secondary outcome was mobility.

RESULTS

Stay-at-home orders were implemented later (median 30 March 2020 vs 28 March 2020) and were shorter in duration (median 35 vs 54 days) in rural compared with urban counties. Indoor mobility was, on average, 2.6%-6.9% higher in rural than urban counties both during and after stay-at-home orders. Compared with the baseline (pre-stay-at-home) period, the number of new COVID-19 cases increased under stay-at-home by incidence risk ratio (IRR) 1.60 (95% CI, 1.57 to 1.64) in rural and 1.36 (95% CI, 1.30 to 1.42) in urban counties, while the number of new COVID-19 deaths increased by IRR 14.21 (95% CI, 11.02 to 18.34) in rural and IRR 2.93 in urban counties (95% CI, 1.82 to 4.73). For each day under stay-at-home orders, the number of new cases changed by a factor of 0.982 (95% CI, 0.981 to 0.982) in rural and 0.952 (95% CI, 0.951 to 0.953) in urban counties compared with prior to stay-at-home, while number of new deaths changed by a factor of 0.977 (95% CI, 0.976 to 0.977) in rural counties and 0.935 (95% CI, 0.933 to 0.936) in urban counties. Each day after stay-at-home orders expired, the number of new cases changed by a factor of 0.995 (95% CI, 0.994 to 0.995) in rural and 0.997 (95% CI, 0.995 to 0.999) in urban counties compared with prior to stay-at-home, while number of new deaths changed by a factor of 0.969 (95% CI, 0.968 to 0.970) in rural counties and 0.928 (95% CI, 0.926 to 0.929) in urban counties.

CONCLUSION

Stay-at-home orders decreased mobility, slowed the spread of COVID-19 and mitigated COVID-19 mortality, but did so less effectively in rural than in urban counties. This necessitates a critical re-evaluation of how stay-at-home orders are designed, communicated and implemented in rural areas.

Human mobility data and machine learning reveal geographic differences in alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits across U.S. states during COVID-19

As many U.S. states implemented stay-at-home orders beginning in March 2020, anecdotes reported a surge in alcohol sales, raising concerns about increased alcohol use and associated ills. The surveillance report from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism provides monthly U.S. alcohol sales data from a subset of states, allowing an investigation of this potential increase in alcohol use. Meanwhile, anonymized human mobility data released by companies such as SafeGraph enables an examination of the visiting behavior of people to various alcohol outlets such as bars and liquor stores. This study examines changes to alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits during COVID-19 and their geographic differences across states. We find major increases in the sales of spirits and wine since March 2020, while the sales of beer decreased. We also find moderate increases in people’s visits to liquor stores, while their visits to bars and pubs substantially decreased. Noticing a significant correlation between alcohol sales and outlet visits, we use machine learning models to examine their relationship and find evidence in some states for likely panic buying of spirits and wine. Large geographic differences exist across states, with both major increases and decreases in alcohol sales and alcohol outlet visits.