Calibrating a Predictive Model of Tumor Growth and Angiogenesis with Quantitative MRI

Patient-Specific, Mechanistic Models of Tumor Growth Incorporating Artificial Intelligence and Big Data

Despite the remarkable advances in cancer diagnosis, treatment, and management over the past decade, malignant tumors remain a major public health problem. Further progress in combating cancer may be enabled by personalizing the delivery of therapies according to the predicted response for each individual patient. The design of personalized therapies requires the integration of patient-specific information with an appropriate mathematical model of tumor response. A fundamental barrier to realizing this paradigm is the current lack of a rigorous yet practical mathematical theory of tumor initiation, development, invasion, and response to therapy. We begin this review with an overview of different approaches to modeling tumor growth and treatment, including mechanistic as well as data-driven models based on big data and artificial intelligence. We then present illustrative examples of mathematical models manifesting their utility and discuss the limitations of stand-alone mechanistic and data-driven models. We then discuss the potential of mechanistic models for not only predicting but also optimizing response to therapy on a patient-specific basis. We describe current efforts and future possibilities to integrate mechanistic and data-driven models. We conclude by proposing five fundamental challenges that must be addressed to fully realize personalized care for cancer patients driven by computational models.

Learn-Morph-Infer: A new way of solving the inverse problem for brain tumor modeling

Current treatment planning of patients diagnosed with a brain tumor, such as glioma, could significantly benefit by accessing the spatial distribution of tumor cell concentration. Existing diagnostic modalities, e.g. magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), contrast sufficiently well areas of high cell density. In gliomas, however, they do not portray areas of low cell concentration, which can often serve as a source for the secondary appearance of the tumor after treatment. To estimate tumor cell densities beyond the visible boundaries of the lesion, numerical simulations of tumor growth could complement imaging information by providing estimates of full spatial distributions of tumor cells. Over recent years a corpus of literature on medical image-based tumor modeling was published. It includes different mathematical formalisms describing the forward tumor growth model. Alongside, various parametric inference schemes were developed to perform an efficient tumor model personalization, i.e. solving the inverse problem. However, the unifying drawback of all existing approaches is the time complexity of the model personalization which prohibits a potential integration of the modeling into clinical settings. In this work, we introduce a deep learning based methodology for inferring the patient-specific spatial distribution of brain tumors from T1Gd and FLAIR MRI medical scans. Coined as Learn-Morph-Infer, the method achieves real-time performance in the order of minutes on widely available hardware and the compute time is stable across tumor models of different complexity, such as reaction-diffusion and reaction-advection-diffusion models. We believe the proposed inverse solution approach not only bridges the way for clinical translation of brain tumor personalization but can also be adopted to other scientific and engineering domains.

A data assimilation framework to predict the response of glioma cells to radiation

We incorporate a practical data assimilation methodology into our previously established experimental-computational framework to predict the heterogeneous response of glioma cells receiving fractionated radiation treatment. Replicates of 9L and C6 glioma cells grown in 96-well plates were irradiated with six different fractionation schemes and imaged via time-resolved microscopy to yield 360- and 286-time courses for the 9L and C6 lines, respectively. These data were used to calibrate a biology-based mathematical model and then make predictions within two different scenarios. For Scenario 1, 70% of the time courses are fit to the model and the resulting parameter values are averaged. These average values, along with the initial cell number, initialize the model to predict the temporal evolution for each test time course (10% of the data). In Scenario 2, the predictions for the test cases are made with model parameters initially assigned from the training data, but then updated with new measurements every 24 hours via four versions of a data assimilation framework. We then compare the predictions made from Scenario 1 and the best version of Scenario 2 to the experimentally measured microscopy measurements using the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). Across all fractionation schemes, Scenario 1 achieved a CCC value (mean ± standard deviation) of 0.845 ± 0.185 and 0.726 ± 0.195 for the 9L and C6 cell lines, respectively. For the best data assimilation version from Scenario 2 (validated with the last 20% of the data), the CCC values significantly increased to 0.954 ± 0.056 (p = 0.002) and 0.901 ± 0.061 (p = 8.9e-5) for the 9L and C6 cell lines, respectively. Thus, we have developed a data assimilation approach that incorporates an experimental-computational system to accurately predict the in vitro response of glioma cells to fractionated radiation therapy.

Opportunities for improving brain cancer treatment outcomes through imaging-based mathematical modeling of the delivery of radiotherapy and immunotherapy

Immunotherapy has become a fourth pillar in the treatment of brain tumors and, when combined with radiation therapy, may improve patient outcomes and reduce the neurotoxicity. As with other combination therapies, the identification of a treatment schedule that maximizes the synergistic effect of radiation- and immune-therapy is a fundamental challenge. Mechanism-based mathematical modeling is one promising approach to systematically investigate therapeutic combinations to maximize positive outcomes within a rigorous framework. However, successful clinical translation of model-generated combinations of treatment requires patient-specific data to allow the models to be meaningfully initialized and parameterized. Quantitative imaging techniques have emerged as a promising source of high quality, spatially and temporally resolved data for the development and validation of mathematical models. In this review, we will present approaches to personalize mechanism-based modeling frameworks with patient data, and then discuss how these techniques could be leveraged to improve brain cancer outcomes through patient-specific modeling and optimization of treatment strategies.

Integrating mechanism-based modeling with biomedical imaging to build practical digital twins for clinical oncology

Digital twins employ mathematical and computational models to virtually represent a physical object (e.g., planes and human organs), predict the behavior of the object, and enable decision-making to optimize the future behavior of the object. While digital twins have been widely used in engineering for decades, their applications to oncology are only just emerging. Due to advances in experimental techniques quantitatively characterizing cancer, as well as advances in the mathematical and computational sciences, the notion of building and applying digital twins to understand tumor dynamics and personalize the care of cancer patients has been increasingly appreciated. In this review, we present the opportunities and challenges of applying digital twins in clinical oncology, with a particular focus on integrating medical imaging with mechanism-based, tissue-scale mathematical modeling. Specifically, we first introduce the general digital twin framework and then illustrate existing applications of image-guided digital twins in healthcare. Next, we detail both the imaging and modeling techniques that provide practical opportunities to build patient-specific digital twins for oncology. We then describe the current challenges and limitations in developing image-guided, mechanism-based digital twins for oncology along with potential solutions. We conclude by outlining five fundamental questions that can serve as a roadmap when designing and building a practical digital twin for oncology and attempt to provide answers for a specific application to brain cancer. We hope that this contribution provides motivation for the imaging science, oncology, and computational communities to develop practical digital twin technologies to improve the care of patients battling cancer.

A Multi-Compartment Model of Glioma Response to Fractionated Radiation Therapy Parameterized via Time-Resolved Microscopy Data

Purpose

Conventional radiobiology models, including the linear-quadratic model, do not explicitly account for the temporal effects of radiation, thereby making it difficult to make time-resolved predictions of tumor response to fractionated radiation. To overcome this limitation, we propose and validate an experimental-computational approach that predicts the changes in cell number over time in response to fractionated radiation.

Methods

We irradiated 9L and C6 glioma cells with six different fractionation schemes yielding a total dose of either 16 Gy or 20 Gy, and then observed their response via time-resolved microscopy. Phase-contrast images and Cytotox Red images (to label dead cells) were collected every 4 to 6 hours up to 330 hours post-radiation. Using 75% of the total data (i.e., 262 9L curves and 211 C6 curves), we calibrated a two-species model describing proliferative and senescent cells. We then applied the calibrated parameters to a validation dataset (the remaining 25% of the data, i.e., 91 9L curves and 74 C6 curves) to predict radiation response. Model predictions were compared to the microscopy measurements using the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC).

Results

For the 9L cells, we observed PCCs and CCCs between the model predictions and validation data of (mean ± standard error) 0.96 ± 0.007 and 0.88 ± 0.013, respectively, across all fractionation schemes. For the C6 cells, we observed PCCs and CCCs between model predictions and the validation data were 0.89 ± 0.008 and 0.75 ± 0.017, respectively, across all fractionation schemes.

Conclusion

By proposing a time-resolved mathematical model of fractionated radiation response that can be experimentally verified in vitro, this study is the first to establish a framework for quantitative characterization and prediction of the dynamic radiobiological response of 9L and C6 gliomas to fractionated radiotherapy.

Predictive Radiation Oncology - A New NCI-DOE Scientific Space and Community

With a widely attended virtual kickoff event on January 29, 2021, the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the Department of Energy (DOE) launched a series of 4 interactive, interdisciplinary workshops-and a final concluding "World Café" on March 29, 2021-focused on advancing computational approaches for predictive oncology in the clinical and research domains of radiation oncology. These events reflect 3,870 human hours of virtual engagement with representation from 8 DOE national laboratories and the Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research (FNL), 4 research institutes, 5 cancer centers, 17 medical schools and teaching hospitals, 5 companies, 5 federal agencies, 3 research centers, and 27 universities. Here we summarize the workshops by first describing the background for the workshops. Participants identified twelve key questions-and collaborative parallel ideas-as the focus of work going forward to advance the field. These were then used to define short-term and longer-term "Blue Sky" goals. In addition, the group determined key success factors for predictive oncology in the context of radiation oncology, if not the future of all of medicine. These are: cross-discipline collaboration, targeted talent development, development of mechanistic mathematical and computational models and tools, and access to high-quality multiscale data that bridges mechanisms to phenotype. The workshop participants reported feeling energized and highly motivated to pursue next steps together to address the unmet needs in radiation oncology specifically and in cancer research generally and that NCI and DOE project goals align at the convergence of radiation therapy and advanced computing.

Quantitative magnetic resonance imaging and tumor forecasting of breast cancer patients in the community setting

This protocol describes a complete data acquisition, analysis and computational forecasting pipeline for employing quantitative MRI data to predict the response of locally advanced breast cancer to neoadjuvant therapy in a community-based care setting. The methodology has previously been successfully applied to a heterogeneous patient population. The protocol details how to acquire the necessary images followed by registration, segmentation, quantitative perfusion and diffusion analysis, model calibration, and prediction. The data collection portion of the protocol requires ~25 min of scanning, postprocessing requires 2-3 h, and the model calibration and prediction components require ~10 h per patient depending on tumor size. The response of individual breast cancer patients to neoadjuvant therapy is forecast by application of a biophysical, reaction-diffusion mathematical model to these data. Successful application of the protocol results in coregistered MRI data from at least two scan visits that quantifies an individual tumor's size, cellularity and vascular properties. This enables a spatially resolved prediction of how a particular patient's tumor will respond to therapy. Expertise in image acquisition and analysis, as well as the numerical solution of partial differential equations, is required to carry out this protocol.

Digital twinning of Cellular Capsule Technology: Emerging outcomes from the perspective of porous media mechanics

Spheroids encapsulated within alginate capsules are emerging as suitable in vitro tools to investigate the impact of mechanical forces on tumor growth since the internal tumor pressure can be retrieved from the deformation of the capsule. Here we focus on the particular case of Cellular Capsule Technology (CCT). We show in this contribution that a modeling approach accounting for the triphasic nature of the spheroid (extracellular matrix, tumor cells and interstitial fluid) offers a new perspective of analysis revealing that the pressure retrieved experimentally cannot be interpreted as a direct picture of the pressure sustained by the tumor cells and, as such, cannot therefore be used to quantify the critical pressure which induces stress-induced phenotype switch in tumor cells. The proposed multiphase reactive poro-mechanical model was cross-validated. Parameter sensitivity analyses on the digital twin revealed that the main parameters determining the encapsulated growth configuration are different from those driving growth in free condition, confirming that radically different phenomena are at play. Results reported in this contribution support the idea that multiphase reactive poro-mechanics is an exceptional theoretical framework to attain an in-depth understanding of CCT experiments, to confirm their hypotheses and to further improve their design.

Biologically-Based Mathematical Modeling of Tumor Vasculature and Angiogenesis via Time-Resolved Imaging Data

Tumor-associated vasculature is responsible for the delivery of nutrients, removal of waste, and allowing growth beyond 2-3 mm3. Additionally, the vascular network, which is changing in both space and time, fundamentally influences tumor response to both systemic and radiation therapy. Thus, a robust understanding of vascular dynamics is necessary to accurately predict tumor growth, as well as establish optimal treatment protocols to achieve optimal tumor control. Such a goal requires the intimate integration of both theory and experiment. Quantitative and time-resolved imaging methods have emerged as technologies able to visualize and characterize tumor vascular properties before and during therapy at the tissue and cell scale. Parallel to, but separate from those developments, mathematical modeling techniques have been developed to enable in silico investigations into theoretical tumor and vascular dynamics. In particular, recent efforts have sought to integrate both theory and experiment to enable data-driven mathematical modeling. Such mathematical models are calibrated by data obtained from individual tumor-vascular systems to predict future vascular growth, delivery of systemic agents, and response to radiotherapy. In this review, we discuss experimental techniques for visualizing and quantifying vascular dynamics including magnetic resonance imaging, microfluidic devices, and confocal microscopy. We then focus on the integration of these experimental measures with biologically based mathematical models to generate testable predictions.

In silico investigations of intratumoral heterogeneous interstitial fluid pressure

Recent preclinical studies have shown that interstitial fluid pressure (IFP) within tumors can be heterogeneous Andersen et al. (2019). In that study tumors of two xenograft models, respectively, HL-16 cervical carcinoma and Panc-1 pancreatic carcinoma, were investigated. Significant heterogeneity in IFP was reported and it was proposed that this was associated with division of tissue into compartments separated by thick connective tissue bands for the HL-16 tumors and with dense collagen-rich extracellular matrix for the Panc-1 tumors. The purpose of the current work is to explore these experimental observations by using in silico generated tumor models. We consider a mathematical multiphase model which accounts for tumor cells, fibroblasts and interstitial fluid. The model has been trained to comply with experimental in vitro results reported in Shieh et al. (2011) which has identified autologous chemotaxis, ECM remodeling, and cell-fibroblast interaction as drivers for invasive tumor cell behavior. The in silico model is informed with parameters that characterize the leaky intratumoral vascular network, the peritumoral lymphatics which collect the fluid, and the density of ECM as represented through the hydraulic conductivity of the interstitial space. Heterogeneous distribution of solid stress may result in heterogeneous compression of blood vessels and, thus, heterogeneous vascular density inside the tumor. To mimic this we expose the in silico tumor to an intratumoral vasculature whose net effect of density of blood vesssels and vessel wall conductivity is varied through a 2D Gaussian variogram constrained such that the resulting IFPs lie within the range as reported from the preclinical study. The in silico cervical carcinoma model illustrates that sparse ECM was associated with uniform intratumoral IFP in spite of heterogeneous microvascular network, whereas compartment structures resulted in more heterogeneous IFP. Similarly, the in silico pancreatic model shows that heterogeneity in the microvascular network combined with dense ECM structure prevents IFP to even out and gives rise to heterogeneous IFP. The computer model illustrates how a heterogeneous invasive front might form where groups of tumor cells detach from the primary tumor and form isolated islands, a behavior which is natural to associate with metastatic propensity. However, unlike experimental studies, the current version of the in silico model does not show an association between metastatic propensity and elevated IFP.

Achievement in active agent structures as a power tools in tumor angiogenesis imaging

According to World Health Organization (WHO) cancer is the second most important cause of death globally. Because angiogenesis is considered as an essential process of growth, proliferation and tumor progression, within this review we decided to shade light on recent development of chemical compounds which play a significant role in its imaging and monitoring. Indeed, the review gives insight about the current achievements of active agents structures involved in imaging techniques such as: positron emission computed tomography (PET), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), as well as combination PET/MRI and PET/CT. The review aims to provide the journal audience with a comprehensive and in-deep understanding of chemistry policy in tumor angiogenesis imaging.

Image-based personalization of computational models for predicting response of high-grade glioma to chemoradiation

High-grade gliomas are an aggressive and invasive malignancy which are susceptible to treatment resistance due to heterogeneity in intratumoral properties such as cell proliferation and density and perfusion. Non-invasive imaging approaches can measure these properties, which can then be used to calibrate patient-specific mathematical models of tumor growth and response. We employed multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to identify tumor extent (via contrast-enhanced T1-weighted, and T2-FLAIR) and capture intratumoral heterogeneity in cell density (via diffusion-weighted imaging) to calibrate a family of mathematical models of chemoradiation response in nine patients with unresected or partially resected disease. The calibrated model parameters were used to forecast spatially-mapped individual tumor response at future imaging visits. We then employed the Akaike information criteria to select the most parsimonious member from the family, a novel two-species model describing the enhancing and non-enhancing components of the tumor. Using this model, we achieved low error in predictions of the enhancing volume (median: - 2.5%, interquartile range: 10.0%) and a strong correlation in total cell count (Kendall correlation coefficient 0.79) at 3-months post-treatment. These preliminary results demonstrate the plausibility of using multiparametric MRI data to inform spatially-informative, biologically-based predictive models of tumor response in the setting of clinical high-grade gliomas.

Towards an Image-Informed Mathematical Model of In Vivo Response to Fractionated Radiation Therapy

Simple Summary

Using medical imaging data and computational models, we develop a modeling framework to provide personalized treatment response forecasts to fractionated radiation therapy for individual tumors. We evaluate this approach in an animal model of brain cancer and forecast changes in tumor cellularity and vasculature.

Abstract

Fractionated radiation therapy is central to the treatment of numerous malignancies, including high-grade gliomas where complete surgical resection is often impractical due to its highly invasive nature. Development of approaches to forecast response to fractionated radiation therapy may provide the ability to optimize or adapt treatment plans for radiotherapy. Towards this end, we have developed a family of 18 biologically-based mathematical models describing the response of both tumor and vasculature to fractionated radiation therapy. Importantly, these models can be personalized for individual tumors via quantitative imaging measurements. To evaluate this family of models, rats (n = 7) with U-87 glioblastomas were imaged with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) before, during, and after treatment with fractionated radiotherapy (with doses of either 2 Gy/day or 4 Gy/day for up to 10 days). Estimates of tumor and blood volume fractions, provided by diffusion-weighted MRI and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI, respectively, were used to calibrate tumor-specific model parameters. The Akaike Information Criterion was employed to select the most parsimonious model and determine an ensemble averaged model, and the resulting forecasts were evaluated at the global and local level. At the global level, the selected model’s forecast resulted in less than 16.2% error in tumor volume estimates. At the local (voxel) level, the median Pearson correlation coefficient across all prediction time points ranged from 0.57 to 0.87 for all animals. While the ensemble average forecast resulted in increased error (ranging from 4.0% to 1063%) in tumor volume predictions over the selected model, it increased the voxel wise correlation (by greater than 12.3%) for three of the animals. This study demonstrates the feasibility of calibrating a model of response by serial quantitative MRI data collected during fractionated radiotherapy to predict response at the conclusion of treatment.

Impact of tumor-parenchyma biomechanics on liver metastatic progression: a multi-model approach

Colorectal cancer and other cancers often metastasize to the liver in later stages of the disease, contributing significantly to patient death. While the biomechanical properties of the liver parenchyma (normal liver tissue) are known to affect tumor cell behavior in primary and metastatic tumors, the role of these properties in driving or inhibiting metastatic inception remains poorly understood, as are the longer-term multicellular dynamics. This study adopts a multi-model approach to study the dynamics of tumor-parenchyma biomechanical interactions during metastatic seeding and growth. We employ a detailed poroviscoelastic model of a liver lobule to study how micrometastases disrupt flow and pressure on short time scales. Results from short-time simulations in detailed single hepatic lobules motivate constitutive relations and biological hypotheses for a minimal agent-based model of metastatic growth in centimeter-scale tissue over months-long time scales. After a parameter space investigation, we find that the balance of basic tumor-parenchyma biomechanical interactions on shorter time scales (adhesion, repulsion, and elastic tissue deformation over minutes) and longer time scales (plastic tissue relaxation over hours) can explain a broad range of behaviors of micrometastases, without the need for complex molecular-scale signaling. These interactions may arrest the growth of micrometastases in a dormant state and prevent newly arriving cancer cells from establishing successful metastatic foci. Moreover, the simulations indicate ways in which dormant tumors could "reawaken" after changes in parenchymal tissue mechanical properties, as may arise during aging or following acute liver illness or injury. We conclude that the proposed modeling approach yields insight into the role of tumor-parenchyma biomechanics in promoting liver metastatic growth, and advances the longer term goal of identifying conditions to clinically arrest and reverse the course of late-stage cancer.

Integrating Quantitative Assays with Biologically Based Mathematical Modeling for Predictive Oncology

We provide an overview on the use of biological assays to calibrate and initialize mechanism-based models of cancer phenomena. Although artificial intelligence methods currently dominate the landscape in computational oncology, mathematical models that seek to explicitly incorporate biological mechanisms into their formalism are of increasing interest. These models can guide experimental design and provide insights into the underlying mechanisms of cancer progression. Historically, these models have included a myriad of parameters that have been difficult to quantify in biologically relevant systems, limiting their practical insights. Recently, however, there has been much interest calibrating biologically based models with the quantitative measurements available from (for example) RNA sequencing, time-resolved microscopy, and in vivo imaging. In this contribution, we summarize how a variety of experimental methods quantify tumor characteristics from the molecular to tissue scales and describe how such data can be directly integrated with mechanism-based models to improve predictions of tumor growth and treatment response.

Evaluating patient-specific neoadjuvant regimens for breast cancer via a mathematical model constrained by quantitative magnetic resonance imaging data

The ability to accurately predict response and then rigorously optimize a therapeutic regimen on a patient-specific basis, would transform oncology. Toward this end, we have developed an experimental-mathematical framework that integrates quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data into a biophysical model to predict patient-specific treatment response of locally advanced breast cancer to neoadjuvant therapy. Diffusion-weighted and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI data is collected prior to therapy, after 1 cycle of therapy, and at the completion of the first therapeutic regimen. The model is initialized and calibrated with the first 2 patient-specific MRI data sets to predict response at the third, which is then compared to patient outcomes (N = 18). The model's predictions for total cellularity, total volume, and the longest axis at the completion of the regimen are significant within expected measurement precision (P< 0.05) and strongly correlated with measured response (P < 0.01). Further, we use the model to investigate, in silico, a range of (practical) alternative treatment plans to achieve the greatest possible tumor control for each individual in a subgroup of patients (N = 13). The model identifies alternative dosing strategies predicted to achieve greater tumor control compared to the standard of care for 12 of 13 patients (P < 0.01). In summary, a predictive, mechanism-based mathematical model has demonstrated the ability to identify alternative treatment regimens that are forecasted to outperform the therapeutic regimens the patients clinically. This has important implications for clinical trial design with the opportunity to alter oncology care in the future.

Towards integration of 64Cu-DOTA-trastuzumab PET-CT and MRI with mathematical modeling to predict response to neoadjuvant therapy in HER2 + breast cancer

While targeted therapies exist for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive (HER2 +) breast cancer, HER2 + patients do not always respond to therapy. We present the results of utilizing a biophysical mathematical model to predict tumor response for two HER2 + breast cancer patients treated with the same therapeutic regimen but who achieved different treatment outcomes. Quantitative data from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and 64Cu-DOTA-trastuzumab positron emission tomography (PET) are used to estimate tumor density, perfusion, and distribution of HER2-targeted antibodies for each individual patient. MRI and PET data are collected prior to therapy, and follow-up MRI scans are acquired at a midpoint in therapy. Given these data types, we align the data sets to a common image space to enable model calibration. Once the model is parameterized with these data, we forecast treatment response with and without HER2-targeted therapy. By incorporating targeted therapy into the model, the resulting predictions are able to distinguish between the two different patient responses, increasing the difference in tumor volume change between the two patients by > 40%. This work provides a proof-of-concept strategy for processing and integrating PET and MRI modalities into a predictive, clinical-mathematical framework to provide patient-specific predictions of HER2 + treatment response.

Integrating transcriptomics and bulk time course data into a mathematical framework to describe and predict therapeutic resistance in cancer

A significant challenge in the field of biomedicine is the development of methods to integrate the multitude of dispersed data sets into comprehensive frameworks to be used to generate optimal clinical decisions. Recent technological advances in single cell analysis allow for high-dimensional molecular characterization of cells and populations, but to date, few mathematical models have attempted to integrate measurements from the single cell scale with other types of longitudinal data. Here, we present a framework that actionizes static outputs from a machine learning model and leverages these as measurements of state variables in a dynamic model of treatment response. We apply this framework to breast cancer cells to integrate single cell transcriptomic data with longitudinal bulk cell population (bulk time course) data. We demonstrate that the explicit inclusion of the phenotypic composition estimate, derived from single cell RNA-sequencing data (scRNA-seq), improves accuracy in the prediction of new treatments with a concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) of 0.92 compared to a prediction accuracy of CCC = 0.64 when fitting on longitudinal bulk cell population data alone. To our knowledge, this is the first work that explicitly integrates single cell clonally-resolved transcriptome datasets with bulk time-course data to jointly calibrate a mathematical model of drug resistance dynamics. We anticipate this approach to be a first step that demonstrates the feasibility of incorporating multiple data types into mathematical models to develop optimized treatment regimens from data.

Optimal Control Theory for Personalized Therapeutic Regimens in Oncology: Background, History, Challenges, and Opportunities

Optimal control theory is branch of mathematics that aims to optimize a solution to a dynamical system. While the concept of using optimal control theory to improve treatment regimens in oncology is not novel, many of the early applications of this mathematical technique were not designed to work with routinely available data or produce results that can eventually be translated to the clinical setting. The purpose of this review is to discuss clinically relevant considerations for formulating and solving optimal control problems for treating cancer patients. Our review focuses on two of the most widely used cancer treatments, radiation therapy and systemic therapy, as they naturally lend themselves to optimal control theory as a means to personalize therapeutic plans in a rigorous fashion. To provide context for optimal control theory to address either of these two modalities, we first discuss the major limitations and difficulties oncologists face when considering alternate regimens for their patients. We then provide a brief introduction to optimal control theory before formulating the optimal control problem in the context of radiation and systemic therapy. We also summarize examples from the literature that illustrate these concepts. Finally, we present both challenges and opportunities for dramatically improving patient outcomes via the integration of clinically relevant, patient-specific, mathematical models and optimal control theory.

From tumour perfusion to drug delivery and clinical translation of in silico cancer models

In silico cancer models have demonstrated great potential as a tool to improve drug design, optimise the delivery of drugs to target sites in the host tissue and, hence, improve therapeutic efficacy and patient outcome. However, there are significant barriers to the successful translation of in silico technology from bench to bedside. More precisely, the specification of unknown model parameters, the necessity for models to adequately reflect in vivo conditions, and the limited amount of pertinent validation data to evaluate models' accuracy and assess their reliability, pose major obstacles in the path towards their clinical translation. This review aims to capture the state-of-the-art in in silico cancer modelling of vascularised solid tumour growth, and identify the important advances and barriers to success of these models in clinical oncology. Particular emphasis has been put on continuum-based models of cancer since they - amongst the class of mechanistic spatio-temporal modelling approaches - are well-established in simulating transport phenomena and the biomechanics of tissues, and have demonstrated potential for clinical translation. Three important avenues in in silico modelling are considered in this contribution: first, since systemic therapy is a major cancer treatment approach, we start with an overview of the tumour perfusion and angiogenesis in silico models. Next, we present the state-of-the-art in silico work encompassing the delivery of chemotherapeutic agents to cancer nanomedicines through the bloodstream, and then review continuum-based modelling approaches that demonstrate great promise for successful clinical translation. We conclude with a discussion of what we view to be the key challenges and opportunities for in silico modelling in personalised and precision medicine.

Forecasting tumor and vasculature response dynamics to radiation therapy via image based mathematical modeling

BACKGROUND

Intra-and inter-tumoral heterogeneity in growth dynamics and vascularity influence tumor response to radiation therapy. Quantitative imaging techniques capture these dynamics non-invasively, and these data can initialize and constrain predictive models of response on an individual basis.

METHODS

We have developed a family of 10 biologically-based mathematical models describing the spatiotemporal dynamics of tumor volume fraction, blood volume fraction, and response to radiation therapy. To evaluate this family of models, rats (n = 13) with C6 gliomas were imaged with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) three times before, and four times following a single fraction of 20 Gy or 40 Gy whole brain irradiation. The first five 3D time series data of tumor volume fraction, estimated from diffusion-weighted (DW-) MRI, and blood volume fraction, estimated from dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE-) MRI, were used to calibrate tumor-specific model parameters. The most parsimonious and well calibrated of the 10 models, selected using the Akaike information criterion, was then utilized to predict future growth and response at the final two imaging time points. Model predictions were compared at the global level (percent error in tumor volume, and Dice coefficient) as well as at the local or voxel level (concordance correlation coefficient).

RESULT

The selected model resulted in < 12% error in tumor volume predictions, strong spatial agreement between predicted and observed tumor volumes (Dice coefficient > 0.74), and high level of agreement at the voxel level between the predicted and observed tumor volume fraction and blood volume fraction (concordance correlation coefficient > 0.77 and > 0.65, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that serial quantitative MRI data collected before and following radiation therapy can be used to accurately predict tumor and vasculature response with a biologically-based mathematical model that is calibrated on an individual basis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort to characterize the tumor and vasculature response to radiation therapy temporally and spatially using imaging-driven mathematical models.