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Harjule P, Poonia RC, Agrawal B, Saudagar AKJ, Altameem A, Alkhathami M, Khan MB, Hasanat MHA, Malik KM. An Effective Strategy and Mathematical Model to Predict the Sustainable Evolution of the Impact of the Pandemic Lockdown. Healthcare (Basel) 2022; 10:759. [PMID: 35627896 PMCID: PMC9141252 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare10050759] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2022] [Revised: 04/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
There have been considerable losses in terms of human and economic resources due to the current coronavirus pandemic. This work, which contributes to the prevention and control of COVID-19, proposes a novel modified epidemiological model that predicts the epidemic's evolution over time in India. A mathematical model was proposed to analyze the spread of COVID-19 in India during the lockdowns implemented by the government of India during the first and second waves. What makes this study unique, however, is that it develops a conceptual model with time-dependent characteristics, which is peculiar to India's diverse and homogeneous societies. The results demonstrate that governmental control policies and suitable public perception of risk in terms of social distancing and public health safety measures are required to control the spread of COVID-19 in India. The results also show that India's two strict consecutive lockdowns (21 days and 19 days, respectively) successfully helped delay the spread of the disease, buying time to pump up healthcare capacities and management skills during the first wave of COVID-19 in India. In addition, the second wave's severe lockdown put a lot of pressure on the sustainability of many Indian cities. Therefore, the data show that timely implementation of government control laws combined with a high risk perception among the Indian population will help to ensure sustainability. The proposed model is an effective strategy for constructing healthy cities and sustainable societies in India, which will help prevent such a crisis in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Priyanka Harjule
- Department of Mathematics, Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur 302017, India;
| | - Ramesh Chandra Poonia
- Department of Computer Science, CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bangalore 560029, India;
| | - Basant Agrawal
- Department of Computer Science Engineering, Indian Institute of Information Technology Kota, MNIT Campus, Jaipur 302017, India;
| | - Abdul Khader Jilani Saudagar
- Information Systems Department, College of Computer and Information Sciences, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh 11432, Saudi Arabia; (A.A.); (M.A.); (M.B.K.); (M.H.A.H.)
| | - Abdullah Altameem
- Information Systems Department, College of Computer and Information Sciences, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh 11432, Saudi Arabia; (A.A.); (M.A.); (M.B.K.); (M.H.A.H.)
| | - Mohammed Alkhathami
- Information Systems Department, College of Computer and Information Sciences, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh 11432, Saudi Arabia; (A.A.); (M.A.); (M.B.K.); (M.H.A.H.)
| | - Muhammad Badruddin Khan
- Information Systems Department, College of Computer and Information Sciences, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh 11432, Saudi Arabia; (A.A.); (M.A.); (M.B.K.); (M.H.A.H.)
| | - Mozaherul Hoque Abul Hasanat
- Information Systems Department, College of Computer and Information Sciences, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh 11432, Saudi Arabia; (A.A.); (M.A.); (M.B.K.); (M.H.A.H.)
| | - Khalid Mahmood Malik
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Oakland University, Rochester, MI 48309, USA;
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