Theoretical estimation of maximum human lifespan

Phenotypic molecular features of long-lived animal species

One of the challenges facing science/biology today is uncovering the molecular bases that support and determine animal and human longevity. Nature, in offering a diversity of animal species that differ in longevity by more than 5 orders of magnitude, is the best 'experimental laboratory' to achieve this aim. Mammals, in particular, can differ by more than 200-fold in longevity. For this reason, most of the available evidence on this topic derives from comparative physiology studies. But why can human beings, for instance, reach 120 years whereas rats only last at best 4 years? How does nature change the longevity of species? Longevity is a species-specific feature resulting from an evolutionary process. Long-lived animal species, including humans, show adaptations at all levels of biological organization, from metabolites to genome, supported by signaling and regulatory networks. The structural and functional features that define a long-lived species may suggest that longevity is a programmed biological property.

Degradation Kinetics of Organic-Inorganic Hybrid Materials from Micro-Raman Spectroscopy and Density-Functional Theory: The Case of β-ZnTe(en)0.5

Organic-inorganic hybrid materials often face a stability challenge. β-ZnTe(en)0.5 , which uniquely has over 15-year real-time degradation data, is taken as a prototype structure to demonstrate an accelerated thermal aging method for assessing the intrinsic and ambient-condition long-term stability of hybrid materials. Micro-Raman spectroscopy is used to investigate the thermal degradation of β-ZnTe(en)0.5 in a protected condition and in air by monitoring the temperature dependences of the intrinsic and degradation-product Raman modes. First, to understand the intrinsic degradation mechanism, the transition state of the degradation is identified, then using a density functional theory, the intrinsic energy barrier between the transition state and ground state is calculated to be 1.70 eV, in excellent agreement with the measured thermal degradation barrier of 1.62 eV in N2 environment. Second, for the ambient-condition degradation, a reduced thermal activation barrier of 0.92 eV is obtained due to oxidation, corresponding to a projected ambient half-life of 40 years at room temperature, in general agreement with the experimental observation of no apparent degradation over 15 years. Furthermore, the study reveals a mechanism, conformation distortion enhanced stability, which plays a pivotal role in forming the high kinetic barrier, contributing greatly to the impressive long-term stability of β-ZnTe(en)0.5 .

Limits to lifespan growth

A long-standing human lifespan debate is revival, and the consensus is yet to come on whether the maximum human lifespan is reaching a limit or not. This study discusses how mathematical constraints inherent in survival curves indicate a limit on maximum lifespans, implying that humans would have inevitable limits to lifespan growth.

Systems biology of human aging: A Fibonacci time series model

Fractals are everywhere in nature, particularly at the interfaces where matter or energy must be transferred, since they maximize surface area while minimizing energy losses. Temporal fractals have been well studied at micro scales in human biology, but have received comparatively little attention at broader macro scales. In this paper, we describe a fractal time series model of human aging from a systems biology perspective. This model examines how intrinsic aging rates are shaped by entropy and Fibonacci fractal dynamics, with implications for the emergence of key life cycle traits. This proposition is supported by research findings. The finding of an intrinsic aging rate rooted in Fibonacci fractal dynamics represents a new predictive paradigm in evolutionary biology.

On the emergence of the correlation between life expectancy and the variance in the age at death

Recent empirical studies have found various patterns in the correlations between lifespan inequality and life expectancy in modern human populations. However, it is unclear how general these regularities are. Here we establish three theorems that provide theoretical foundations for such regularities. We show that for populations with a finite maximum lifespan ω, and under certain continuity assumptions, the variance in the age at death is bounded by a function of lifespan that has a maximum and tends to zero as life expectancy tends to zero and ω. We show how the change in said variance is determined by a particular interplay between the coefficient of variation and the mean age in the population. These results lead to three hypotheses-a three-phased pattern of change for the correlation between the variance and life expectancy, a particular shape of the associated variance function, and that survival curve Type is one driver of the pattern. We illustrate those hypotheses empirically via a study of the 10 countries in the Human Mortality Database with the oldest available data. Our results elucidate the emergence of the aforementioned correlation patterns and provide demographically meaningful conditions under which those correlations reverse.

Evolutionarily conserved transcription factors as regulators of longevity and targets for geroprotection

Aging is the single largest risk factor for many debilitating conditions, including heart diseases, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disorders. While far from understood in its full complexity, it is scientifically well-established that aging is influenced by genetic and environmental factors, and can be modulated by various interventions. One of aging's early hallmarks are aberrations in transcriptional networks, controlling for example metabolic homeostasis or the response to stress. Evidence in different model organisms abounds that a number of evolutionarily conserved transcription factors, which control such networks, can affect lifespan and healthspan across species. These transcription factors thus potentially represent conserved regulators of longevity and are emerging as important targets in the challenging quest to develop treatments to mitigate age-related diseases, and possibly even to slow aging itself. This review provides an overview of evolutionarily conserved transcription factors that impact longevity or age-related diseases in at least one multicellular model organism (nematodes, flies, or mice), and/or are tentatively linked to human aging. Discussed is the general evidence for transcriptional regulation of aging and disease, followed by a more detailed look at selected transcription factor families, the common metabolic pathways involved, and the targeting of transcription factors as a strategy for geroprotective interventions.

No limit to maximal lifespan in humans: how to beat a 122-year-old record

Although average human life expectancy is rising, the maximum lifespan is not increasing. Leading demographers claim that human lifespan is fixed at a natural limit around 122 years. However, there is no fixed limit in animals. In animals, anti-aging interventions (dietary restrictions, rapamycin, genetic manipulations) postpone age-related diseases and thus automatically extend maximum lifespan. In humans, anti-aging interventions have not been yet implemented. Instead, by treating individual diseases, medical interventions allow a patient to live longer (despite morbidity), expanding morbidity span. In contrast, slowly aging individuals (centenarians) enter very old age in good health, but, when diseases finally develop, they do not receive thorough medical care and die fast. Although the oldest old die from age-related diseases, death certificates often list "old age", meaning that diseases were not even diagnosed and even less treated. The concept of absolute compression of morbidity is misleading in humans (in truth, there is no other way to compress morbidity as by denying thorough medical care) and false in animals (in truth, anti-aging interventions do not condense morbidity, they postpone it). Anti-aging interventions such as rapamycin may potentially extend both healthspan and maximal lifespan in humans. Combining anti-aging medicine with cutting-edge medical care, regardless of chronological age, will extend maximal lifespan further.

How should we theorize about justice in the genomic era?

The sequencing of the human genome and advances in gene therapy and genomic editing, coupled with embryo selection techniques and a potential gerontological intervention, are some examples of the rapid technological advances of the "genetic revolution." This article addresses the methodological issue of how we should theorize about justice in the genomic era. Invoking the methodology of non-ideal theory, I argue that theorizing about justice in the genomic era entails theorizing about (1) the new inequalities that the genetic revolution could exacerbate (e.g., genetic discrimination, disability-related injustices, and gender inequality), and (2) those inequalities that the genetic revolution could help us mitigate (e.g., the risks of disease in early and late life). By doing so, normative theorists can ensure that we develop an account of justice that takes seriously not only individual rights, equality of opportunity, the cultural and sociopolitical aspects of disability, and equality between the sexes, but also the potential health benefits (to both individuals and populations) of attending to the evolutionary causes of morbidity and disability.

Oxidative stress, antioxidants, hormesis and calorie restriction: The current perspective in the biology of aging

Aging, in a large measure, has long been defined as the resultant of oxidative stress acting on the cells. The cellular machinery eventually malfunctions at the basic level by the damage from the processes of oxidation and the system starts slowing down because of intrinsic eroding. To understand the initial destruction at the cellular level spreading outward to affect tissues, organs and the organism, the relationship between molecular damage and oxidative stress is required to understand. Retarding the aging process is a matter of cumulatively decreasing the rate of oxidative damage to the cellular machinery. Along with the genetic reasons, the decrease of oxidative stress is somehow a matter of lifestyle and importantly of diet. In the current review, the theories of aging and the understanding of various levels of molecular damage by oxidative stress have been emphasized. A broader understanding of mechanisms of aging have been elaborated in terms of effects of oxidative at molecular, mitochondrial, cellular and organ levels. The antioxidants supplementation, hormesis and calorie restriction as the prominent anti-aging strategies have also been discussed. The relevance and the efficacy of the antiaging strategies at system level have also been presented.

A 25-y longitudinal dolphin cohort supports that long-lived individuals in same environment exhibit variation in aging rates

Aging is a degradative process that varies among individuals. Due to limitations in defining and differentiating aging rates in human populations, understanding why some people appear to age slower than others has proven difficult. We analyzed 44 blood-based indices of health as candidate aging rate biomarkers collected over a 25-y period on a relevant, long-lived population of dolphins. Evidence of subsets of dolphins exhibiting slow and accelerated aging rates were detected, despite sharing the same environment, diet, and health care. Furthermore, some dolphin subsets were more likely to develop clinically relevant conditions, including anemia and immunosenescence. Our results support the notion that aging rates in long-lived mammals may be defined and provide insight into novel interventions to delay aging.

While it is believed that humans age at different rates, a lack of robust longitudinal human studies using consensus biomarkers meant to capture aging rates has hindered an understanding of the degree to which individuals vary in their rates of aging. Because bottlenose dolphins are long-lived mammals that develop comorbidities of aging similar to humans, we analyzed data from a well-controlled, 25-y longitudinal cohort of 144 US Navy dolphins housed in the same oceanic environment. Our analysis focused on 44 clinically relevant hematologic and clinical chemistry measures recorded during routine blood draws throughout the dolphins’ lifetimes. Using stepwise regression and general linear models that accommodate correlations between measures obtained on individual dolphins, we demonstrate that, in a manner similar to humans, dolphins exhibit independent and linear age-related declines in four of these measures: hemoglobin, alkaline phosphatase, platelets, and lymphocytes. Using linear regressions and analyses of covariance with post hoc Tukey–Kramer tests to compare slopes (i.e., linear age-related rates) of our four aging rate biomarkers among 34 individual dolphins aging from 10 y to up to 40 y old, we could identify slow and accelerated agers and differentiate subgroups that were more or less likely to develop anemia and lymphopenia. This study successfully documents aging rate differences over the lifetime of long-lived individuals in a controlled environment. Our study suggests that nonenvironmental factors influencing aging rate biomarkers, including declining hemoglobin and anemia, may be targeted to delay the effects of aging in a compelling model of human biology.

The Dead Man Test: a Preliminary Experimental Analysis

Behavior analysts often invoke the "Dead Man Test" as a means of distinguishing behavior from other things, but the assumption underpinning this test, that behavior is absent in vitality-challenged individuals, lacks systematic empirical support. In a field experiment, three individuals who reasonably could be considered as deceased each were observed under three conditions in which behavior might have been observed. None was detected. These results are consistent with predictions derived from the Dead Man Test, although, due to limitations of the experiment, that foundational concept of behavioral measurement cannot yet be considered as validated.

Activating the Anaphase Promoting Complex to Enhance Genomic Stability and Prolong Lifespan

In aging cells, genomic instability is now recognized as a hallmark event. Throughout life, cells encounter multiple endogenous and exogenous DNA damaging events that are mostly repaired, but inevitably DNA mutations, chromosome rearrangements, and epigenetic deregulation begins to mount. Now that people are living longer, more and more late life time is spent suffering from age-related disease, in which genomic instability plays a critical role. However, several major questions remain heavily debated, such as the following: When does aging start? How long can we live? In order to minimize the impact of genomic instability on longevity, it is important to understand when aging starts, and to ensure repair mechanisms remain optimal from the very start to the very end. In this review, the interplay between the stress and nutrient response networks, and the regulation of homeostasis and genomic stability, is discussed. Mechanisms that link these two networks are predicted to be key lifespan determinants. The Anaphase Promoting Complex (APC), a large evolutionarily conserved ubiquitin ligase, can potentially serve this need. Recent work demonstrates that the APC maintains genomic stability, mounts a stress response, and increases longevity in yeast. Furthermore, inhibition of APC activity by glucose and nutrient response factors indicates a tight link between the APC and the stress/nutrient response networks.

Are We Reaching the Limits of Homo sapiens?

Echoing scientific and industrial progress, the Twentieth century was an unprecedented period of improvement for human capabilities and performances, with a significant increase in lifespan, adult height, and maximal physiological performance. Analyses of historical data show a major slow down occurring in the most recent years. This triggered large and passionate debates in the academic scene within multiple disciplines; as such an observation could be interpreted as our upper biological limits. Such a new phase of human history may be related to structural and functional limits determined by long term evolutionary constraints, and the interaction between complex systems and their environment. In this interdisciplinary approach, we call into question the validity of subsequent forecasts and projections through innovative and related biomarkers such as sport, lifespan, and height indicators. We set a theoretical framework based on biological and environmental relevance rather than using a typical single-variable forecasting approach. As demonstrated within the article, these new views will have major social, economical, and political implications.

Hospital treatment costs and length of stay associated with hypertension and multimorbidity after hemorrhagic stroke

Background

Previous studies have identified various treatment and patient characteristics that may be associated with higher hospital cost after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH); a devastating type of stroke. Patient morbidity is perhaps the least understood of these cost-driving factors. We describe how hypertension and other patient morbidities affect length of stay, and hospital treatment costs after ICH using primary and simulated data. We also describe the relationship between cost and length of stay within these patients.

Methods

We used a cohort design; evaluating 987 consecutive ICH patients across one decade in a Canadian center. Economic, treatment, and patient data were obtained from clinical and administrative sources. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of one or more diagnoses at hospital admission in addition to a primary diagnosis of ICH.

Results

Hypertension was the most frequent (67%) morbidity within these patients, as well as the strongest predictor of longer stay (adjusted RR for >7 days: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.07-1.60), and was significantly associated with higher cost per visit when accounting for other morbidities (adjusted cost increase for hypertension $8123.51, 95% CI: $4088.47 to $12,856.72 USD). A Monte Carlo simulation drawing one million samples of patients estimated for a generation (100 years) assuming 0.94% population growth per year, and a hospitalization rate of 12 per 100,000 inhabitants, supported these findings (p = 0.516 for the difference in unadjusted cost: simulated vs primary). Using a restricted cubic spline, we observed that the rate of change in overall cost for all patients was greatest for the first 3 weeks (p < 0.001) compared to subsequent weeks.

Conclusion

Patient multimorbidity, specifically hypertension, is a strong predictor of longer stay and cost after ICH. The non-linear relationship between cost and time should also be considered when forecasting healthcare spending in these patients.

Contemporary views on human aging and longevity

Aging is currently stimulating intense interest of both researchers and the general public. In developed countries, the average life expectancy has increased by roughly 30 years within the last century, and human senescence has been delayed by around a decade. Although aging is arguably the most familiar aspect of human biology, its proximate and ultimate causes have not been elucidated fully and understood yet. Nowadays there are two main approaches to the ultimate causes of aging. These are deterministic and stochastic models. The proximate theories constitute a distinct group of explanations. They focus on mechanistic causes of aging. In this view, there is no reason to believe that there is only one biological mechanism responsible for aging. The aging process is highly complex and results from an accumulation of random molecular damage. Currently, the disposable soma theory (DST), proposed by Thomas Kirkwood, is the most influential and coherent line of reasoning in biogerontology. This model does not postulate any particular mechanism underpinning somatic defense. Therefore, it is compatible with various models, including mechanistic and evolutionary explanations. Recently, however, an interesting theory of hyper-function of mTOR as a more direct cause of aging has been formulated by Mikhail Blagosklonny, offering an entirely different approach to numerous problems and paradoxes in current biogerontology. In this view, aging is quasi-programmed, which means that it is an aimless continuation of developmental growth. This mTOR-centric model allows the prediction of completely new relationships. The aim of this article is to present and compare the views of both parties in the dispute, based on the results of some recent experimental studies, and the contemporary knowledge of selected major aspects of human aging and longevity

Tyrannosaurs as long-lived species

Biodemographic analysis would be essential to understand population ecology and aging of tyrannosaurs. Here we address a methodology that quantifies tyrannosaur survival and mortality curves by utilizing modified stretched exponential survival functions. Our analysis clearly shows that mortality patterns for tyrannosaurs are seemingly analogous to those for 18th-century humans. This result suggests that tyrannosaurs would live long to undergo aging before maximum lifespans, while their longevity strategy is more alike to big birds rather than 18th-century humans.

Life equations for the senescence process

The Gompertz law of mortality quantitatively describes the mortality rate of humans and almost all multicellular animals. However, its underlying kinetic mechanism is unclear. The Gompertz law cannot explain the mortality plateau at advanced ages and cannot give an explicit relationship between temperature and mortality. In this study a reaction kinetics model with a time dependent rate coefficient is proposed to describe the survival and senescence processes. A temperature-dependent mortality function was derived. The new mortality function becomes the Gompertz mortality function with the same relationship of parameters prescribed by the Strehler–Mildvan correlation when age is smaller than a characteristic value δ, and reaches the mortality plateau when age is greater than δ. A closed-form analytical expression for describing the relationship of average lifespan with temperature and other equations are derived from the new mortality function. The derived equations can be used to estimate the limit of average lifespan, predict the maximal longevity, calculate the temperature coefficient of lifespan, and explain the tendency of the survival curve. This prediction is consistent with the most recently reported mortality trajectories for single-year birth cohorts. This study suggests that the senescence process results from the imbalance between damaging energy and protecting energy for the critical chemical substance in the body. The rate of senescence of the organism increases while the protecting energy decreases. The mortality plateau is reached when the protecting energy decreases to its minimal levels. The decreasing rate of the protecting energy is temperature-dependent. This study is exploring the connection between the biochemical mechanism and demography.

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A temperature-dependent mortality function is derived.

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The function reaches a mortality plateau as age>δ (a life characteristic value).

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An expression for the temperature-dependent average lifespan is derived.

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The equation for estimating the limit of average lifespan is derived.

A solution to debates over the behavior of mortality at old ages

As humans live longer, the precise modeling of mortality curves in very old age is becoming more important in aging research and public health. Here, we address a methodology that utilizes a modified stretched exponential survival function where a stretched exponent is relevant to heterogeneity in human populations. This function allows better estimation of the maximum human lifespan by providing a good description of the mortality curves in very old age. Demographic analysis of Swedish females over three recent decades revealed an important trend: the maximum human lifespan (existing around 125 years) gradually decreased at a constant rate of ~1.6 years per decade, while the characteristic life gradually increased at a constant rate of ~1.2 years per decade. This trend indicates that the number of aging people is increasingly concentrated at very old age, which is consistent with the definition of population aging. Importantly analyzing the stretched exponents would help in evaluating the heterogeneity trends in human populations.

Bayesian immunological model development from the literature: example investigation of recent thymic emigrants

Bayesian estimation techniques offer a systematic and quantitative approach for synthesizing data drawn from the literature to model immunological systems. As detailed here, the practitioner begins with a theoretical model and then sequentially draws information from source data sets and/or published findings to inform estimation of model parameters. Options are available to weigh these various sources of information differentially per objective measures of their corresponding scientific strengths. This approach is illustrated in depth through a carefully worked example for a model of decline in T-cell receptor excision circle content of peripheral T cells during development and aging. Estimates from this model indicate that 21 years of age is plausible for the developmental timing of mean age of onset of decline in T-cell receptor excision circle content of peripheral T cells.

Kinetics of neurodegeneration based on a risk-related biomarker in animal model of glaucoma

Background

Neurodegenerative diseases including Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s diseases progress slowly and steadily over years or decades. They show significant between-subject variation in progress and clinical symptoms, which makes it difficult to predict the course of long-term disease progression with or without treatments. Recent technical advances in biomarkers have facilitated earlier, preclinical diagnoses of neurodegeneration by measuring or imaging molecules linked to pathogenesis. However, there is no established “biomarker model” by which one can quantitatively predict the progress of neurodegeneration. Here, we show predictability of a model with risk-based kinetics of neurodegeneration, whereby neurodegeneration proceeds as probabilistic events depending on the risk.

Results

We used five experimental glaucomatous animals, known for causality between the increased intraocular pressure (IOP) and neurodegeneration of visual pathways, and repeatedly measured IOP as well as white matter integrity by diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) as a biomarker of axonal degeneration. The IOP in the glaucomatous eye was significantly increased than in normal and was varied across time and animals; thus we tested whether this measurement is useful to predict kinetics of the integrity. Among four kinds of models of neurodegeneration, constant-rate, constant-risk, variable-risk and heterogeneity models, goodness of fit of the model and F-test for model selection showed that the time course of optic nerve integrity was best explained by the variable-risk model, wherein neurodegeneration kinetics is expressed in an exponential function across cumulative risk based on measured IOP. The heterogeneity model with stretched exponential decay function also fit well to the data, but without statistical superiority to the variable-risk model. The variable-risk model also predicted the number of viable axons in the optic nerve, as assessed by immunohistochemistry, which was also confirmed to be correlated with the pre-mortem integrity of the optic nerve. In addition, the variable-risk model identified the disintegrity in the higher-order visual pathways, known to underlie the transsynaptic degeneration in this disease.

Conclusions

These findings indicate that the variable-risk model, using a risk-related biomarker, could predict the spatiotemporal progression of neurodegeneration. This model, virtually equivalent to survival analysis, may allow us to estimate possible effect of neuroprotection in delaying progress of neurodegeneration.

Trends in scale and shape of survival curves

The ageing of the population is an issue in wealthy countries worldwide because of increasing costs for health care and welfare. Survival curves taken from demographic life tables may help shed light on the hypotheses that humans are living longer and that human populations are growing older. We describe a methodology that enables us to obtain separate measurements of scale and shape variances in survival curves. Specifically, 'living longer' is associated with the scale variance of survival curves, whereas 'growing older' is associated with the shape variance. We show how the scale and shape of survival curves have changed over time during recent decades, based on period and cohort female life tables for selected wealthy countries. Our methodology will be useful for performing better tracking of ageing statistics and it is possible that this methodology can help identify the causes of current trends in human ageing.

Plasticity and rectangularity in survival curves

Living systems inevitably undergo a progressive deterioration of physiological function with age and an increase of vulnerability to disease and death. To maintain health and survival, living systems should optimize survival strategies with adaptive interactions among molecules, cells, organs, individuals, and environments, which arises plasticity in survival curves of living systems. In general, survival dynamics in a population is mathematically depicted by a survival rate, which monotonically changes from 1 to 0 with age. It would be then useful to find an adequate function to describe complicated survival dynamics. Here we describe a flexible survival function, derived from the stretched exponential function by adopting an age-dependent shaping exponent. We note that the exponent is associated with the fractal-like scaling in cumulative mortality rate. The survival function well depicts general features in survival curves; healthy populations exhibit plasticity and evolve towards rectangular-like survival curves, as examples in humans or laboratory animals.

Longevity health sciences and mental health as future medicine

Longevity health sciences and mental health are fields of public health and of preventive and integrative medicine. The antagonism between health construction and human pathology is substantiated by two opposite fundamental pathways: the health-longevity tetrad versus the aging-disease cascade. It is necessary that the current paradigm of contemporary medicine be replaced by the advanced paradigm of future medicine. A societal cost-benefit rate is decisive for health-longevity promotion. This is why the WHO public health strategy keeps forwarding the societal medical target into the global health-longevity field.