Interceptions of Nonindigenous Plant Pests at US Ports of Entry and Border Crossings Over a 17-year Period

Pest risk assessment of African Leucinodes species for the European Union

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of African Leucinodes species (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), which are fruit and shoot borers, especially of eggplant type fruit. The assessment focused on (i) potential pathways for entry, (ii) distribution of infested imports within EU, (iii) climatic conditions favouring establishment, (iv) spread and (v) impact. Options for risk reduction are discussed, but their effectiveness was not quantified. Leucinodes spp. are widely distributed across sub-Saharan Africa but are little studied and they could be much more widespread in Africa than reported. Much African literature erroneously reports them as Leucinodes orbonalis which is restricted to Asia. The import of eggplant type fruit from sub-Saharan Africa consists of special fruit types and caters mostly to niche markets in the EU. The main pathway for entry is fruit of Solanum aethiopicum and exotic varieties of eggplant (S. melongena). CLIMEX modelling was used with two possible thresholds of ecoclimatic index (EI) to assess establishment potential. Climates favouring establishment occur mostly in southern Europe, where, based on human population, 14% of the imported produce is distributed across NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30; or where 23% of the produce is distributed where EI ≥ 15. Over the next 5 years, an annual median estimate of ~ 8600 fruits, originating from Africa, and infested with African Leucinodes spp. are expected to enter EU NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 15 (90% CR ~ 570-52,700); this drops to ~ 5200 (90% CR ~ 350-32,100) in NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30. Escape of adult moths occurs mostly from consumer waste; considering uncertainties in pathway transfer, such as adult emergence, mate finding and survival of progeny, the annual median probability of a mated female establishing a founder population in NUTS regions where EI ≥ 15 was estimated to be 0.0078 (90% CR 0.00023-0.12125). This equates to a median estimate of one founder population ~ every 128 years (90% CR approximately one every 8-4280 years). Using an EI ≥ 30, the median number of founder populations establishing in the EU annually is 0.0048 (90% CR 0.0001-0.0739), equating to a median estimate of one founder population approximately every 210 years (90% CR approximately one every 14-7020 years). Under climate change for the period 2040-2059, the percent of infested produce going to suitable areas would be increased to 33% for EI ≥ 15 and to 21% for EI ≥ 30. Accordingly, the waiting time until the next founder population would be reduced to median estimates of 89 years for EI ≥ 15 (90% CR ~ 6-2980 years) and 139 years for EI ≥ 30 (90% CR 9-4655 years). If a founder population were to establish, it is estimated to spread at a rate of 0.65-7.0 km per year after a lag phase of 5-92 years. Leucinodes spp. are estimated to reduce eggplant yield by a median value of 4.5% (90% CR 0.67%-13%) if growers take no specific action, or 0.54% (90% CR between 0.13% and 1.9%) if they do take targeted action, matching previous estimates made during a risk assessment of L. orbonalis from Asia.

CRISPR-based diagnostics detects invasive insect pests

Rapid identification of organisms is essential across many biological and medical disciplines, from understanding basic ecosystem processes and how organisms respond to environmental change, to disease diagnosis and detection of invasive pests. CRISPR-based diagnostics offers a novel and rapid alternative to other identification methods and can revolutionize our ability to detect organisms with high accuracy. Here we describe a CRISPR-based diagnostic developed with the universal cytochrome-oxidase 1 gene (CO1). The CO1 gene is the most sequenced gene among Animalia, and therefore our approach can be adopted to detect nearly any animal. We tested the approach on three difficult-to-identify moth species (Keiferia lycopersicella, Phthorimaea absoluta, and Scrobipalpa atriplicella) that are major invasive pests globally. We designed an assay that combines recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) with CRISPR for signal generation. Our approach has a much higher sensitivity than other real time-PCR assays and achieved 100% accuracy for identification of all three species, with a detection limit of up to 120 fM for P. absoluta and 400 fM for the other two species. Our approach does not require a lab setting, reduces the risk of cross-contamination, and can be completed in less than one hour. This work serves as a proof of concept that has the potential to revolutionize animal detection and monitoring.

Phylogenetic risk assessment is robust for forecasting the impact of European insects on North American conifers

Some introduced species cause severe damage, although the majority have little impact. Robust predictions of which species are most likely to cause substantial impacts could focus efforts to mitigate those impacts or prevent certain invasions entirely. Introduced herbivorous insects can reduce crop yield, fundamentally alter natural and managed forest ecosystems, and are unique among invasive species in that they require certain host plants to succeed. Recent studies have demonstrated that understanding the evolutionary history of introduced herbivores and their host plants can provide robust predictions of impact. Specifically, divergence times between hosts in the native and introduced ranges of a nonnative insect can be used to predict the potential impact of the insect should it establish in a novel ecosystem. However, divergence time estimates vary among published phylogenetic datasets, making it crucial to understand if and how the choice of phylogeny affects prediction of impact. Here, we tested the robustness of impact prediction to variation in host phylogeny by using insects that feed on conifers and predicting the likelihood of high impact using four different published phylogenies. Our analyses ranked 62 insects that are not established in North America and 47 North American conifer species according to overall risk and vulnerability, respectively. We found that results were robust to the choice of phylogeny. Although published vascular plant phylogenies continue to be refined, our analysis indicates that those differences are not substantial enough to alter the predictions of invader impact. Our results can assist in focusing biosecurity programs for conifer pests and can be more generally applied to nonnative insects and their potential hosts by prioritizing surveillance for those insects most likely to be damaging invaders.

Meloidogyne paramali n. sp. (Nematoda: Meloidogyninae) and First Report of M. marylandi in maple and yacca tree from Japan

Meloidogyne paramali n. sp. was detected from Japanese maple trees (Acer palmatum) from Chiba, Japan during quarantine inspections in China. This species is characterized by second-stage juveniles (J2) with short tail length 32.2 (24-36.8) μm, finely rounded to broadly pointed tail terminus with extremely short hyaline tail terminus 4.3 (3.0-4.9) μm; perineal patterns of females characterized by an oval or irregular appearance, with round and low dorsal arch, and fine and smooth striae. M. paramali n. sp. is very similar to M. mali in that the perineal pattern has fine, smooth striae and both J2 have a short tail, but it can be distinguished from the latter by perineal pattern of the female (lateral field distinct vs. indistinct), shorter J2 hyaline tail terminus (4.3 [3.0-4.9] μm vs. 8.2 [4.8-12.7] μm, and by J2 tail with finely rounded to broadly pointed tail terminus, never sharply pointed vs. finely rounded and almost pointed. The polytomous key codes of the new species are as follows: Female: A21, B2, C32, D4; Male: A21, B3, C2, D1, E2, F2; J2: A2, B23, C43, D34, E12, F34. Detailed phylogenetic analysis based on partial 18S, ITS, D2-D3 28S, and partial mtCOI sequences also confirmed it as a new species, which is very close to M. mali and M. vitis and forms molecular group VIII. M. marylandi and other Meloidogyne species detected from plants from Japan in China are also discussed.

Alien insect dispersal mediated by the global movement of commodities

Globalization and economic growth are recognized as key drivers of biological invasions. Alien species have become a feature of almost every biological community worldwide, and rates of new introductions continue to rise as the movement of people and goods accelerates. Insects are among the most numerous and problematic alien organisms, and are mainly introduced unintentionally with imported cargo or arriving passengers. However, the processes occurring prior to insect introductions remain poorly understood. We used a unique dataset of 1,902,392 border interception records from inspections at air, land, and maritime ports in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Japan, USA, and Canada to identify key commodities associated with insect movement through trade and travel. In total, 8939 species were intercepted, and commodity association data were available for 1242 species recorded between 1960 and 2019. We used rarefaction and extrapolation methods to estimate the total species richness and diversity associated with different commodity types. Plant and wood products were the main commodities associated with insect movement across cargo, passenger baggage, and international mail. Furthermore, certain species were mainly associated with specific commodities within these, and other broad categories. More closely related species tended to share similar commodity associations, but this occurred largely at the genus level rather than within orders or families. These similarities within genera can potentially inform pathway management of new alien species. Combining interception records across regions provides a unique window into the unintentional movement of insects, and provides valuable information on establishment risks associated with different commodity types and pathways.

Invasive Species Policy Must Embrace a Changing Climate

With increasing impacts of climate change observed across ecosystems, there is an urgent need to consider climate change in all future environmental policy. But existing policy and management might be slow to respond to this challenge, leading to missed opportunities to incorporate climate change into practice. Furthermore, invasive species threats continue to rise and interact with climate change—exacerbating negative impacts. Enabling natural resource managers and individuals to be proactive about climate-driven invasive species threats creates a win–win for conservation. Recommendations include expanding opportunities for information sharing across borders, supporting proactive screening and regulation of high-risk species on the horizon, and incentivizing individual actions that reduce ecological impacts. In addition, invasive species risk should be considered when crafting climate mitigation and adaptation policy to reduce compounding stressors on ecosystems. As we develop much-needed tools to reduce harm, policy and management must consider the combined threats of invasions and climate change.

Distribution and interaction of the suitable areas of Beauveria bassiana and Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel)

Climate is a key factor affecting the potential distribution of insects, and the host is another important constraint for the distribution of pests. To elucidate changes in the potential distribution of Beauveria bassiana under climate change scenarios, this paper used the data of two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) to predict the potential distribution of B. bassiana and its typical host, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), based on the MaxEnt model. Then, the potential distribution of B. bassiana and B. dorsalis (Hendel) was compared, and their suitable growth area’s change and expansion trend under two different GHG emission scenarios were mastered. The results of this study show that the potential distribution area of B. bassiana will increase by 2,050 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, mainly in central Europe and southwestern Asia, with an increased area of 3.28 × 105 km2. However, under the climate scenario of RCP2.6, the potential distribution area for B. bassiana decreased by 2.0 × 105 km2, mainly in North America. This study will provide a theoretical basis for the control of B. dorsalis (Hendel) with B. bassiana.

Use of mixed-type data clustering algorithm for characterizing temporal and spatial distribution of biosecurity border detections of terrestrial non-indigenous species

Appropriate inspection protocols and mitigation strategies are a critical component of effective biosecurity measures, enabling implementation of sound management decisions. Statistical models to analyze biosecurity surveillance data are integral to this decision-making process. Our research focuses on analyzing border interception biosecurity data collected from a Class A Nature Reserve, Barrow Island, in Western Australia and the associated covariates describing both spatial and temporal interception patterns. A clustering analysis approach was adopted using a generalization of the popular k-means algorithm appropriate for mixed-type data. The analysis approach compared the efficiency of clustering using only the numerical data, then subsequently including covariates to the clustering. Based on numerical data only, three clusters gave an acceptable fit and provided information about the underlying data characteristics. Incorporation of covariates into the model suggested four distinct clusters dominated by physical location and type of detection. Clustering increases interpretability of complex models and is useful in data mining to highlight patterns to describe underlying processes in biosecurity and other research areas. Availability of more relevant data would greatly improve the model. Based on outcomes from our research we recommend broader use of cluster models in biosecurity data, with testing of these models on more datasets to validate the model choice and identify important explanatory variables.

The Bugs in the Bags: The Risk Associated with the Introduction of Small Quantities of Fruit and Plants by Airline Passengers

Simple Summary

This study was carried out with the aim of emphasizing the importance of checking the plant material that can be imported in the baggage of airline passengers. Travelers are often unaware of the regulations in place and of the risks connected with such importation. The risk of the introduction of harmful organisms correlated with this pathway is yet not well studied and its frequency is underestimated. The results of the research underline the need for continuous checks at entry points and the establishment of a specialized position for inspections.

Abstract

Among European countries, Italy is the most exposed to the risk of biological invasions, principally for its numerous entry points (ports and airports) and for climatic conditions favorable for the acclimatization of several invasive species. Here it was assessed that the greatest threats to our agro-ecosystems come mainly from the passenger baggage in which a variety of fruits and vegetables are carried. From 2016 to 2021, large quantities of plant products were found in the luggage of passengers travelling from outside the EU and seized at the BCPs (border control posts) in the Campania region. Inspections and the following laboratory analyses were conducted on the plant material to assess the presence of exotic pests. Inspections led to several non-native species being recorded, and among the intercepted organisms, some should be considered “alarming”, such as Bactrocera dorsalis, Anastrepha obliqua, and Leucinodes africensis. Despite a well-organized border inspection system, travelers transporting infested material unknowingly contribute to increasing the risk of the introduction of exotic species. Given the current situation, it is necessary to impose stricter controls and greater attention, ensuring compliance with the requirements of the new phytosanitary regulations by the actors involved in the transport of plant material. Finally, it is essential to improve awareness through a phytosanitary campaign on plant health risks, especially for people wishing to transport fruits and vegetables in their luggage.

Sustainable management of transboundary pests requires holistic and inclusive solutions

Globalization and changing climates are aggravating the occurrence and impacts of transboundary pests, and driving the emergence of new threats. Most of the low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America are not fully prepared in terms of surveillance, diagnostics, and deployment of plant health solutions due to several factors: adequate investment is lacking; knowledge is inadequate; and connections from the local to global, and global to local are insufficient. Effectively countering the current and emerging threats to plant health requires a holistic approach that includes: 1) globally coordinated diagnostic and surveillance systems; 2) epidemiological modelling, risk assessment, forecasting and preparedness for proactive management and containment; and 3) implementation of context-sensitive, eco-friendly, gender-responsive and socially inclusive integrated disease and pest management approaches to reduce the impacts of devastating transboundary pests and diseases. Despite several success stories where major pests and diseases have been brought to control through integrated approaches, further multi-institutional and multi-disciplinary efforts are necessary. Plant health management requires stronger interface between the biophysical and social sciences, and empowerment of local communities. These reflections derive from the proceedings of a webinar on “Transboundary Disease and Pest Management,” organized by CGIAR (Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research) on March 3, 2021, in recognition of the United Nations designated International Year of Plant Health.

A DNA Extraction Method for Insects From Sticky Traps: Targeting a Low Abundance Pest, Phthorimaea absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), in Mixed Species Communities

Invasive insects can cause catastrophic damage to ecosystems and cost billions of dollars each year due to management expenses and lost revenue. Rapid detection is an important step to prevent invasive insects from spreading, but improvements in detection capabilities are needed for bulk collections like those from sticky traps. Here we present a bulk DNA extraction method designed for the detection of Phthorimaea absoluta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), an invasive moth that can decimate tomato crops. We test the extraction method for insect specimens on sticky traps, subjected to different temperature and humidity conditions, and among mock insect communities left in the field for up to 21 d. We find that the extraction method yielded high success (>92%) in recovering target DNA across field and lab trials, without a decline in recovery after three weeks, across all treatments. These results may have a large impact on tomato growing regions where P. absoluta is in the early stages of invasion or not yet present. The extraction method can also be used to improve detection capabilities for other bulk insect collections, especially those using sticky traps, to the benefit of pest surveys and biodiversity studies.

Suitable areas for invasive insect pests in Brazil and the potential impacts for eucalyptus forestry

BACKGROUND

Brazil is among the world's largest producers of eucalyptus and the damage caused by native and invasive insect pests is one of the main factors affecting eucalyptus yield. The recent history of biological invasions of eucalyptus pests in Brazil prompts demand for phytosanitary measures to prevent new invasions. This study used ecological niche models to estimate suitable areas for nine eucalyptus pests. This information was used to assess the potential ports of entry, generate invasion risk maps considering the likelihood of introducing invasive species, and estimate the eucalyptus producing municipalities and areas within the species' suitable range.

RESULTS

A large distribution range was predicted for Eucalyptolyma maideni (Hempitera: Aphalaridae), Orgya postica (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), Sinoxylon anale (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), and Trachymela sloanei (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in Brazil, while a comparatively smaller distribution was predicted for Ophelimus maskelli (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), Mnesampela privata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), Paropsis atomaria (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), Paropsisterna beata, and P. cloelia (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). High-risk areas of invasion near airports and seaports were predicted mainly in southern, southeastern, and northeastern Brazil. A large proportion of the municipalities (24.4% to 93.7%) and areas with eucalyptus plantations (31.9% to 98.3%) are within the climatically suitable areas estimated for the pests, especially in southern and southeastern regions, which comprises 61.5% of the Brazilian eucalyptus production.

CONCLUSION

The results indicate that eucalyptus forestry may be significantly impacted by biological invasion. The findings provided by our study can assist decision-makers in developing phytosanitary measures to prevent new invasions of forest pests in Brazil. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Biological invasion costs reveal insufficient proactive management worldwide

The global increase in biological invasions is placing growing pressure on the management of ecological and economic systems. However, the effectiveness of current management expenditure is difficult to assess due to a lack of standardised measurement across spatial, taxonomic and temporal scales. Furthermore, there is no quantification of the spending difference between pre-invasion (e.g. prevention) and post-invasion (e.g. control) stages, although preventative measures are considered to be the most cost-effective. Here, we use a comprehensive database of invasive alien species economic costs (InvaCost) to synthesise and model the global management costs of biological invasions, in order to provide a better understanding of the stage at which these expenditures occur. Since 1960, reported management expenditures have totalled at least US$95.3 billion (in 2017 values), considering only highly reliable and actually observed costs - 12-times less than damage costs from invasions ($1130.6 billion). Pre-invasion management spending ($2.8 billion) was over 25-times lower than post-invasion expenditure ($72.7 billion). Management costs were heavily geographically skewed towards North America (54%) and Oceania (30%). The largest shares of expenditures were directed towards invasive alien invertebrates in terrestrial environments. Spending on invasive alien species management has grown by two orders of magnitude since 1960, reaching an estimated $4.2 billion per year globally (in 2017 values) in the 2010s, but remains 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than damages. National management spending increased with incurred damage costs, with management actions delayed on average by 11 years globally following damage reporting. These management delays on the global level have caused an additional invasion cost of approximately $1.2 trillion, compared to scenarios with immediate management. Our results indicate insufficient management - particularly pre-invasion - and urge better investment to prevent future invasions and to control established alien species. Recommendations to improve reported management cost comprehensiveness, resolution and terminology are also made.

The New Dominator of the World: Modeling the Global Distribution of the Japanese Beetle under Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios

The spread of invasive species is a threat to global biodiversity. The Japanese beetle is native to Japan, but alien populations of this insect occur in North America, and recently, also in southern Europe. This beetle was recently included on the list of priority species of European concern, as it is a highly invasive agricultural pest. Thus, in this study, we aimed at (i) assessing its current distribution range, and identifying areas of potential invasion, and (ii) predicting its distribution using future climatic and land-use change scenarios for 2050. We collected species occurrences available on the citizen science platform iNaturalist, and we combined species data with climatic and land-use predictors using a Bayesian framework, specifically the integrated nested Laplace approximation, with a stochastic partial differential equation. We found that the current distribution of the Japanese beetle was mainly, and positively, driven by the percentage of croplands, the annual range of temperature, habitat diversity, percentage of human settlements, and human population density; it was negatively related to the distance to airports, elevation, mean temperature diurnal range, wetlands, and waters. As a result, based on current conditions, the Japanese beetle is likely to occur in 47,970,200 km2, while its distribution will range from between 53,418,200 and 59,126,825 km2, according to the 2050 climatic and land-use change scenarios. We concluded that the Japanese beetle is a high-risk invasive species, able to find suitable conditions for its colonization in several regions around the globe, especially in light of ongoing climatic change. Thus, we strongly recommend strict biosecurity checks and quarantines, as well as regular pest management surveys, in order to reduce its spread.

Arthropods on imported plant products: Volumes predict general trends while contextual details enhance predictive power

Agricultural biosecurity interventions are aimed at minimizing introductions of harmful non-native organisms to new areas via agricultural trade. To prioritize such interventions, historical data on interceptions have been used to elucidate which factors determine the likelihood that a particular import is carrying a harmful organism. Here we use an interception data set of arthropod contaminants recorded on plant imports arriving in South Africa from 2005 to 2019, comprising 13,566 samples inspected for arthropod contaminants, of which 4902 were positive for the presence of at least one arthropod. We tested 29 predictor variables that have previously been used to explain variation in rates of detection and three variables describing possible sources of additional variation and grouped these into six mutually exclusive "factor classes." We used boosted regression trees as a non-parametric stochastic machine-learning method to build models for each factor class and interactions between them. We explored the influence of these variables with data split either randomly or chronologically. While we identified some specific patterns that could be explained post-hoc by historical events, only inspected volumes were reliably correlated with detection of arthropod contaminants across the whole data set. However, inspected volumes could not predict future interceptions of arthropods, which instead relied on contextual factors such as country, crop or year of import. This suggests that, although certain factors may be important in certain circumstances or for particular crops or commodities, there is little general predictive power in the current data. Instead, an idiographic approach would be most beneficial in biosecurity to ascertain the details of why a particular pest arrived on a particular pathway and how it might move (and be stopped) in future.

Development of Azalea Lace Bug, Stephanitis pyrioides, on Susceptible and Resistant Rhododendron species in Western Washington

The invasive azalea lace bug, Stephanitis pyrioides (Scott) (Tingidae: Hemiptera), is an important pest of Rhododendron (L.) (Ericales: Ericaceae). Feeding by nymphs and adults removes chlorophyll, reduces rates of photosynthesis and transpiration, and causes leaf stippling, which reduces the aesthetic value of infested plants. Rhododendron spp. are a major component of landscapes in the Pacific Northwest. Previous studies on the seasonality of S. pyrioides in North America are largely from the southeastern United States, which could have limited applicability in the Pacific Northwest. To quantify S. pyrioides seasonality in western Washington, we sampled ~200 leaves from 18 Rhododendron plants 1-2 times per wk from April to October over 2 yr, and microscopically counted the number of eggs, early instars, late instars, and adults. We developed a degree-day model for first generation S. pyrioides, which we used to estimate that S. pyrioides undergoes two full and a partial third generation in western Washington. Our model estimates 5 and 50% early instar occurrence, after hatching from overwintering eggs, at 69 and 171 accumulated degree-days from 1 January, respectively, when using a base threshold of 10.2°, which can be used to optimize the timing of management decisions. We also observed faster development and adult emergence when S. pyrioides nymphs feed on susceptible host plants relative to more resistant host plants, which may influence the timing of management decisions and potentially increase the probability of a full third generation. This research enhances our knowledge of an emerging invasive species in the Pacific Northwest.

Alien Invasive Pathogens and Pests Harming Trees, Forests, and Plantations: Pathways, Global Consequences and Management

Forest health worldwide is impacted by many invasive alien pathogens and pests (IAPPs) that cause significant harm, with severe economic losses and environmental alterations. Destructive tree pathogens and pests have in the past devastated our forests, natural landscapes and cityscapes and still continue to represent a serious threat. The main driver of pathogen and pest invasions is human activities, above all global trade, which allows these invasive species to overstep their natural distribution ranges. While natural transport occurs according to a regular, expected colonization pattern (based on the dispersive capacity of the organism), human-mediated transport takes place on a larger, unpredictable scale. In order for a pathogen or pest species to become invasive in a new territory it must overcome distinct stages (barriers) that strongly affect the outcome of the invasion. Early detection is crucial to enabling successful eradication and containment. Although sophisticated diagnostic techniques are now available for disease and pest surveillance and monitoring, few control and mitigation options are usable in forestry; of these, biological control is one of the most frequently adopted. Since invasion by pathogens and pests is an economic and ecological problem of supranational relevance, governments should endorse all necessary preventive and corrective actions. To this end, establishing and harmonizing measures among countries is essential, both for preventing new introductions and for diminishing the eventual range expansion of IAPPs present at a local scale. Research is fundamental for: (i) developing effective and rapid diagnostic tools; (ii) investigating the epidemiology and ecology of IAPPs in newly introduced areas; and (iii) supporting policymakers in the implementation of quarantine regulations.

Prevention is better than cure: Integrating habitat suitability and invasion threat to assess global biological invasion risk by insect pests under climate change

BACKGROUND

Invasive alien species cause substantial impacts on ecosystem, economy, and public health. Therefore, identifying areas at risk of invasion and establishment is essential for the development and implementation of preventive measures. In this study, we integrated information on species habitat suitability, location of airports and ports, and invasion threat maps to assess global invasion risk under climate change using the cucurbit beetle, Diabrotica speciosa (Germar, 1824), as a model organism.

RESULTS

Suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa were estimated in several regions beyond its native range and comprised all continents. A decrease in the extent of suitable and optimal habitats for D. speciosa was predicted in different climate change scenarios, resulting in a reduction in invasion risk in most regions. However, regions such as western Europe and isolated areas in southern Asia and Oceania were predicted to face an increase in invasion risk under climate change. Invasion pathways via airports and ports were identified in all continents.

CONCLUSION

Our findings can be used in the development of phytosanitary measures against D. speciosa in high-risk areas. Furthermore, the approach used in this study provides a framework for estimating the global risk of invasion by insect pests and other terrestrial organisms in different climate change scenarios. This information can be used by policy makers to develop preventive measures against species with potential to invade and spread in regions beyond their native range. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Worldwide border interceptions provide a window into human-mediated global insect movement

As part of national biosecurity programs, cargo imports, passenger baggage, and international mail are inspected at ports of entry to verify compliance with phytosanitary regulations and to intercept potentially damaging nonnative species to prevent their introduction. Detection of organisms during inspections may also provide crucial information about the species composition and relative arrival rates in invasion pathways that can inform the implementation of other biosecurity practices such as quarantines and surveillance. In most regions, insects are the main taxonomic group encountered during inspections. We gathered insect interception data from nine world regions collected from 1995 to 2019 to compare the composition of species arriving at ports in these regions. Collectively, 8,716 insect species were intercepted in these regions over the last 25 yr, with the combined international data set comprising 1,899,573 interception events, of which 863,972 were identified to species level. Rarefaction analysis indicated that interceptions comprise only a small fraction of species present in invasion pathways. Despite differences in inspection methodologies, as well as differences in the composition of import source regions and imported commodities, we found strong positive correlations in species interception frequencies between regions, particularly within the Hemiptera and Thysanoptera. There were also significant differences in species frequencies among insects intercepted in different regions. Nevertheless, integrating interception data among multiple regions would be valuable for estimating invasion risks for insect species with high likelihoods of introduction as well as for identifying rare but potentially damaging species.

Quarantine supervision of Wood Packaging Materials (WPM) at Chinese ports of entry from 2003 to 2016

Exotic pests have caused huge losses to agriculture, forestry, and human health. Analyzing information on all concerned pest species and their origin will help to improve the inspection procedures and will help to clarify the relative risks of imported cargo and formulate international trade policies. Records of intercepted pests from wood packaging materials (WPM) from 2003 to 2016 in the China Port Information Network (CPIN) database were analyzed. Results showed that the number of intercepted pests from WPM was lowest in the first quarter and highest in the fourth one. The total number of interceptions increased each year, with 53.33% of intercepted insects followed by nematodes (31.54%). The original continent of most intercepted pests was Asia (49.29%). Xylophagous insects were primarily intercepted from Southeast Asian countries, whereas nematodes were primarily intercepted from Korea, Australia, Mexico, and other countries. WPM interception records were mainly concentrated in China's coastal inspection stations (98.7%), with the largest number of interceptions documented in Shanghai, followed by the inspection stations of Jiangsu Province. The proportion of pest taxa intercepted by the Chinese provinces' stations each year is becoming increasingly balanced. The number of pest disposal treatment measures for intercepted cargoes with dead non-quarantine pests increased significantly from 2012 to 2016. This reflects the fact that Chinese customs inspection stations are becoming increasingly scientific and standardizing the interception and treatment of WPM pests. The issues reflected in the database, with a view to providing a reference for future work by customs officers and researchers.

Phytosanitary risk associated with illegal importation of pest-infested commodities to the South African agricultural sector

We evaluated the phytosanitary risk associated with illegal importation of pest-infested plant commodities into South Africa. Samples were collected from different South African ports of entry over 8 years (2011 to 2019) and data were analysed descriptively using Statistical Software Package. Pests were frequently detected on commodity species such as Citrus (18.31%), Zea mays (13.22%), Phaseolus vulgaris (12.88%), Musa spp. (9.15%) and Fragaria ananassa (5.08%). The highest number of pests intercepted occurred on fresh fruits (44.06%), followed by grains (26.44%) and vegetables (14.23%). The most intercepted organisms were Callosobruchus rhodesianus (7.79%), Dysmicoccus brevipes (7.11%), Callosobruchus maculates (6.10%) and Phyllosticta citricarpa (4.74%). The majority of intercepted organisms were non-quarantine organisms (70.50%), followed by pests of unknown status (17.28%), quarantine pests (10.84%) and potential quarantine pests (1.35%). Phyllosticta citricarpa, Bactrocera dorsalis, Spodoptera frugiperda and Prostephanus truncatus were the only quarantine pests intercepted in terms of South African regulatory status. The interception was mainly from southern African countries, particularly Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Eswatini. The findings present the level of phytosanitary risk associated with illegal importation and/or non-compliance in regard to plants and plant commodities from different countries through South African ports of entry. Crop production, biodiversity, food security, existing export markets, and access to new export markets could be threatened as importing countries may impose stringent phytosanitary measures to limit the chances of introduction and establishment of quarantine pests into their territories.

The evolutionary dynamics of biological invasions: A multi-approach perspective

Biological invasions, the establishment and spread of non-native species in new regions, can have extensive economic and environmental consequences. Increased global connectivity accelerates introduction rates, while climate and land-cover changes may decrease the barriers to invasive populations spread. A detailed knowledge of the invasion history, including assessing source populations, routes of spread, number of independent introductions, and the effects of genetic bottlenecks and admixture on the establishment success, adaptive potential, and further spread, is crucial from an applied perspective to mitigate socioeconomic impacts of invasive species, as well as for addressing fundamental questions on the evolutionary dynamics of the invasion process. Recent advances in genomics together with the development of geographic information systems provide unprecedented large genetic and environmental datasets at global and local scales to link population genomics, landscape ecology, and species distribution modeling into a common framework to study the invasion process. Although the factors underlying population invasiveness have been extensively reviewed, analytical methods currently available to optimally combine molecular and environmental data for inferring invasive population demographic parameters and predicting further spreading are still under development. In this review, we focus on the few recent insect invasion studies that combine different datasets and approaches to show how integrating genetic, observational, ecological, and environmental data pave the way to a more integrative biological invasion science. We provide guidelines to study the evolutionary dynamics of invasions at each step of the invasion process, and conclude on the benefits of including all types of information and up-to-date analytical tools from different research areas into a single framework.

Scientific opinion on the import of Musa fruits as a pathway for the entry of non-EU Tephritidae into the EU territory

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health examined evidence as to whether the import of fruits of Musa (bananas and plantains) could provide a pathway into the EU for Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) or other non-EU Tephritidae for which Musa is a host. Relevant scientific and technical information, including unpublished information provided to the EFSA Panel on Plant Health by the European Commission from research conducted in Cabo Verde, were taken into account. The majority of EU imports of Musa fruit comes from Ecuador, Colombia and Costa Rica where B. dorsalis does not occur. Commercial Musa fruits are harvested at 'green stage one' before they begin to ripen naturally. Postharvest processes are designed to ensure that only high quality, unripe fruit are exported. Green stage one fruit are transported to the EU in controlled conditions and stimulated to ripen when exposed to exogenous ethylene in ripening rooms in the EU. There is no evidence that any Tephritidae can naturally infest commercial varieties of Musa fruit at green stage one or earlier. When experimentally infested with eggs of Tephritidae, larvae fail to develop in green stage one fruit. Physical and chemical changes that occur during fruit ripening enable B. dorsalis and 11 other species of Tephritidae to oviposit and develop in Musa at later stages of fruit development. Reports of B. dorsalis or other Tephritidae infesting bunches of Musa fruit are a consequence of the fruit being left to develop beyond green stage one in the field. There is no evidence that commercially grown fruits of Musa, for export to the EU, provide a pathway for the entry of non-EU Tephritidae. Passengers bringing Musa fruit from countries where Tephritidae can infest ripened Musa fruit do however provide a potential pathway for the entry of non-EU Tephritidae into the EU territory.

Phytosanitary Interventions for Safe Global Germplasm Exchange and the Prevention of Transboundary Pest Spread: The Role of CGIAR Germplasm Health Units

The inherent ability of seeds (orthodox, intermediate, and recalcitrant seeds and vegetative propagules) to serve as carriers of pests and pathogens (hereafter referred to as pests) and the risk of transboundary spread along with the seed movement present a high-risk factor for international germplasm distribution activities. Quarantine and phytosanitary procedures have been established by many countries around the world to minimize seed-borne pest spread by screening export and import consignments of germplasm. The effectiveness of these time-consuming and cost-intensive procedures depends on the knowledge of pest distribution, availability of diagnostic tools for seed health testing, qualified operators, procedures for inspection, and seed phytosanitation. This review describes a unique multidisciplinary approach used by the CGIAR Germplasm Health Units (GHUs) in ensuring phytosanitary protection for the safe conservation and global movement of germplasm from the 11 CGIAR genebanks and breeding programs that acquire and distribute germplasm to and from all parts of the world for agricultural research and food security. We also present the challenges, lessons learned, and recommendations stemming from the experience of GHUs, which collaborate with the national quarantine systems to export and distribute about 100,000 germplasm samples annually to partners located in about 90 to 100 countries. Furthermore, we describe how GHUs adjust their procedures to stay in alignment with evolving phytosanitary regulations and pest risk scenarios. In conclusion, we state the benefits of globally coordinated phytosanitary networks for the prevention of the intercontinental spread of pests that are transmissible through plant propagation materials.

Genomics informed design of a suite of real-time PCR assays for the specific detection of each Xylella fastidiosa subspecies

AIMS

Existing methods for the identification of the subspecies of Xylella fastidiosa are time-consuming which can lead to delays in diagnosis and the associated plant health response to outbreaks and interceptions.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Diagnostic markers were identified using a comparative genomics approach to allow fine differentiation of the very closely related subspecies. Five qPCR assays were designed to allow specific detection of X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa, X. fastidiosa subsp. multiplex, X. fastidiosa subsp. pauca, X. fastidiosa subsp. morus and X. fastidiosa subsp. sandyi. All assays were validated according to the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation (EPPO) standard PM7/98(2).

CONCLUSIONS

All of the assays were shown to be specific to the target subspecies and all the assays could be used to detect femtogram quantities of X. fastidiosa DNA.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

At present, diagnosing the subspecies of X. fastidiosa requires multiple conventional PCR assays (although only available for three of the five subspecies) or multi-locus sequence typing which takes several days. By comparison, the new assays provide a substantial reduction in the turnaround time for direct identification to the subspecies level in as little as 75 min.

Border interceptions of forest insects established in Australia: intercepted invaders travel early and often

Invasive forest insects continue to accumulate in Australia (and worldwide) and cause significant impacts through costs of prevention, eradication and management, and through productivity losses and environmental and biodiversity decline. We used our recent non-native Australian forest insect species inventory to analyse border interception rates (2003–2016) of established species, and link interception frequencies with biological traits, historical establishment patterns, commodities and countries of origin. The strongest predictor of interception frequency was year of establishment. Polyphagous species were more likely to be intercepted, as were more concealed species, although this latter likely reflects the higher interceptions of bostrichid borers and other wood-boring Coleoptera relative to other taxa. Interceptions occurred more often for species native to Asia; in contrast, interceptions from other regions were more likely to be of species invasive there. While interception frequencies did not provide a good overall indicator of contemporaneous species establishments, wood and bark borers were more closely linked for establishments and interceptions. The first fifty forest insect species to establish comprised 85% of all border interceptions of established species between 2003 and 2016, while the most-recent fifty species represented just 6% of interceptions. We suggest that early-establishing species are among the “super-invaders” that continue to move globally, while more recent invasive species may be exploiting new trade pathways, new commodity associations, or changes in dynamics in their countries of origin.

Using the IUCN Red List to map threats to terrestrial vertebrates at global scale

The Anthropocene is characterized by unparalleled human impact on other species, potentially ushering in the sixth mass extinction. Yet mitigation efforts remain hampered by limited information on the spatial patterns and intensity of the threats driving global biodiversity loss. Here we use expert-derived information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List on threats to 23,271 species, representing all terrestrial amphibians, birds and mammals, to generate global maps of the six major threats to these groups: agriculture, hunting and trapping, logging, pollution, invasive species, and climate change. Our results show that agriculture and logging are pervasive in the tropics and that hunting and trapping is the most geographically widespread threat to mammals and birds. Additionally, current representations of human pressure underestimate the overall pressure on biodiversity, due to the exclusion of threats such as hunting and climate change. Alarmingly, this is particularly the case in areas of the highest biodiversity importance.

A monograph of the Xyleborini (Coleoptera, Curculionidae, Scolytinae) of the Indochinese Peninsula (except Malaysia) and China

The Southeast Asian xyleborine ambrosia beetle fauna is reviewed for the first time. Thirty-four genera and 315 species are reviewed, illustrated, and keyed to genera and species. Sixty-three new species are described: Amasa cycloxyster sp. nov., Amasa galeoderma sp. nov., Amasa gibbosa sp. nov., Amasa lini sp. nov., Amasa tropidacron sp. nov., Amasa youlii sp. nov., Ambrosiophilus caliginestris sp. nov., Ambrosiophilus indicus sp. nov., Ambrosiophilus lannaensis sp. nov., Ambrosiophilus papilliferus sp. nov., Ambrosiophilus wantaneeae sp. nov., Anisandrus achaete sp. nov., Anisandrus auco sp. nov., Anisandrus auratipilus sp. nov., Anisandrus congruens sp. nov., Anisandrus cryphaloides sp. nov., Anisandrus feronia sp. nov., Anisandrus hera sp. nov., Anisandrus paragogus sp. nov., Anisandrus sinivali sp. nov., Anisandrus venustus sp. nov., Anisandrus xuannu sp. nov., Arixyleborus crassior sp. nov., Arixyleborus phiaoacensis sp. nov., Arixyleborus setosus sp. nov., Arixyleborus silvanus sp. nov., Arixyleborus sittichayai sp. nov., Arixyleborus titanus sp. nov., Coptodryas amydra sp. nov., Coptodryas carinata sp. nov., Coptodryas inornata sp. nov., Cyclorhipidion amasoides sp. nov., Cyclorhipidion amputatum sp. nov., Cyclorhipidion denticauda sp. nov., Cyclorhipidion muticum sp. nov., Cyclorhipidion obesulum sp. nov., Cyclorhipidion petrosum sp. nov., Cyclorhipidion truncaudinum sp. nov., Cyclorhipidion xeniolum sp. nov., Euwallacea geminus sp. nov., Euwallacea neptis sp. nov., Euwallacea subalpinus sp. nov., Euwallacea testudinatus sp. nov., Heteroborips fastigatus sp. nov., Heteroborips indicus sp. nov., Microperus latesalebrinus sp. nov., Microperus minax sp. nov., Microperus sagmatus sp. nov., Streptocranus petilus sp. nov., Truncaudum bullatum sp. nov., Xyleborinus cuneatus sp. nov., Xyleborinus disgregus sp. nov., Xyleborinus echinopterus sp. nov., Xyleborinus ephialtodes sp. nov., Xyleborinus huifenyinae sp. nov., Xyleborinus jianghuansuni sp. nov., Xyleborinus thaiphami sp. nov., Xyleborinus tritus sp. nov., Xyleborus opacus sp. nov., Xyleborus sunisae sp. nov., Xyleborus yunnanensis sp. nov., Xylosandrus bellinsulanus sp. nov., Xylosandrus spinifer sp. nov.. Thirteen new combinations are given: Ambrosiophilus consimilis (Eggers) comb. nov., Anisandrus carinensis (Eggers) comb. nov., Anisandrus cristatus (Hagedorn) comb. nov., Anisandrus klapperichi (Schedl) comb. nov., Anisandrus percristatus (Eggers) comb. nov., Arixyleborus resecans (Eggers) comb. nov., Cyclorhipidion armiger (Schedl) comb. nov., Debus quadrispinus (Motschulsky) comb. nov., Heteroborips tristis (Eggers) comb. nov., Leptoxyleborus machili (Niisima) comb. nov., Microperus cruralis (Schedl) comb. nov., Planiculus shiva (Maiti & Saha) comb. nov., Xylosandrus formosae (Wood) comb. nov. Twenty-four new synonyms are proposed: Ambrosiophilus osumiensis (Murayama, 1934) (= Xyleborus nodulosus Eggers, 1941 syn. nov.); Ambrosiophilus subnepotulus (Eggers, 1930) (= Xyleborus cristatuloides Schedl, 1971 syn. nov.); Ambrosiophilus sulcatus (Eggers, 1930) (= Xyleborus sinensis Eggers, 1941 syn. nov.; = Xyleborus sulcatulus Eggers, 1939 syn. nov.); Anisandrus hirtus (Hagedorn, 1904) (= Xyleborus hirtipes Schedl, 1969 syn. nov.); Cnestus protensus (Eggers, 1930) (= Cnestus rostratus Schedl, 1977 syn. nov.); Cyclorhipidion bodoanum (Reitter, 1913) (= Xyleborus misatoensis Nobuchi, 1981 syn. nov.); Cyclorhipidion distinguendum (Eggers, 1930) (= Xyleborus fukiensis Eggers, 1941 syn. nov.; = Xyleborus ganshoensis Murayama, 1952 syn. nov.); Cyclorhipidion inarmatum (Eggers, 1923) (= Xyleborus vagans Schedl, 1977 syn. nov.); Debus quadrispinus (Motschulsky, 1863) (= Xyleborus fallax Eichhoff, 1878 syn. nov.); Euwallacea gravelyi (Wichmann, 1914) (= Xyleborus barbatomorphus Schedl, 1951 syn. nov.); Euwallacea perbrevis (Schedl, 1951) (= Xyleborus molestulus Wood, 1975 syn. nov.; Euwallacea semirudis (Blandford, 1896) (= Xyleborus neohybridus Schedl, 1942 syn. nov.); Euwallacea sibsagaricus (Eggers, 1930) (= Xyleborus tonkinensis Schedl, 1934 syn. nov.); Euwallacea velatus (Sampson, 1913) (= Xyleborus rudis Eggers, 1930 syn. nov.); Microperus kadoyamaensis (Murayama, 1934) (= Xyleborus pubipennis Schedl, 1974 syn. nov.; =Xyleborus denseseriatus Eggers, 1941 syn. nov.); Stictodex dimidiatus (Eggers, 1927) (=Xyleborus dorsosulcatus Beeson, 1930 syn. nov.); Webbia trigintispinata Sampson, 1922 (= Webbia mucronatus Eggers, 1927 syn. nov.); Xyleborinus artestriatus (Eichhoff, 1878) (= Xyelborus angustior [sic] Eggers, 1925 syn. nov.; = Xyleborus undatus Schedl, 1974 syn. nov.); Xyleborinus exiguus (Walker, 1859) (= Xyleborus diversus Schedl, 1954 syn. nov.); Xyleborus muticus Blandford, 1894 (= Xyleborus conditus Schedl, 1971 syn. nov.; = Xyleborus lignographus Schedl, 1953 syn. nov.). Seven species are removed from synonymy and reinstated as valid species: Anisandrus cristatus (Hagedorn, 1908), Cyclorhipidion tenuigraphum (Schedl, 1953), Diuncus ciliatoformis (Schedl, 1953), Euwallacea gravelyi (Wichmann, 1914), Euwallacea semirudis (Blandford, 1896), Microperus fulvulus (Schedl, 1942), Xyleborinus subspinosus (Eggers, 1930).

Classifying the introduction pathways of alien species: are we moving in the right direction?

Alien species are introduced to new regions in many different ways and for different purposes. A number of frameworks have been developed to group such pathways of introduction into discrete categories in order to improve our understanding of biological invasions, provide information for interventions that aim to prevent introductions, enable reporting to national and international organisations and facilitate the prediction of threats. The introduction pathway classification framework proposed by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) as a global standard is comprised of six main categories and 44 sub-categories. However, issues have arisen with its implementation. In this position paper, we outline five desirable properties of an introduction pathway classification framework – it should be compatible (i.e. the level of detail of the categories is similar to that of the available data), actionable (i.e. categories link to specific interventions), general (i.e. categories are applicable across the contexts that are of interest (e.g. taxa, habitats and regions)), equivalent (i.e. categories are equivalent in their level of detail) and distinct (i.e. categories are discrete and easily distinguished) – termed the CAGED properties. The six main categories of the CBD framework have all of the CAGED properties, but the detailed sub-categories have few. Therefore, while the framework has been proposed by the CBD as a global standard and efforts have been made to put it into practice, we argue that there is room for improvement. We conclude by presenting scenarios for how the issues identified could be addressed, noting that a hybrid model might be most appropriate.

Blurred lines: integrating emerging technologies to advance plant biosecurity

Plant diseases threaten global food security and biodiversity. Rapid dispersal of pathogens particularly via human means has accelerated in recent years. Timely detection of plant pathogens is essential to limit their spread. At the same time, international regulations must keep abreast of advances in plant disease diagnostics. In this review we describe recent progress in developing modern plant disease diagnostics based on detection of pathogen components, high-throughput image analysis, remote sensing, and machine learning. We discuss how different diagnostic approaches can be integrated in detection frameworks that can work at different scales and account for sampling biases. Lastly, we briefly discuss the requirements to apply these advances under regulatory settings to improve biosecurity measures globally.

Drivers of global Scolytinae invasion patterns

Biological invasions are affected by characteristics of invading species, strength of pathway connectivity among world regions and habitat characteristics of invaded regions. These factors may interact in complex ways to drive geographical variation in numbers of invasions among world regions. Understanding the role of these drivers provides information that is crucial to the development of effective biosecurity policies. Here we assemble for the first time a global database of historical invasions of Scolytinae species and explore factors explaining geographical variation in numbers of species invading different regions. This insect group includes several pest species with massive economic and ecological impacts and these beetles are known to be accidentally moved with wood packaging in global trade. Candidate explanatory characteristics included in this analysis are cumulative trade among world regions, size of source species pools, forest area, and climatic similarity of the invaded region with source regions. Species capable of sib-mating comprised the highest proportion on nonnative Scolytines, and these species colonized a higher number of regions than outbreeders. The size of source species pools offered little power in explaining variation in numbers of invasions among world regions nor did climate or forest area. In contrast, cumulative trade had a strong and consistent positive relationship with numbers of Scolytinae species moving from one region to another, and this effect was highest for bark beetles, followed by ambrosia beetles, and was low for seed and twig feeders. We conclude that global variation in Scolytine invasions is primarily driven by variation in trade levels among world regions. Results stress the importance of global trade as the primary driver of historical Scolytinae invasions and we anticipate other hitchhiking species would exhibit similar patterns. One implication of these results is that invasions between certain world regions may be historically low because of past low levels of trade but future economic shifts could result in large numbers of new invasions as a result of increased trade among previously isolated portions of the world. With changing global flow of goods among world regions, it is crucial that biosecurity efforts keep pace to minimize future invasions and their impacts.

Feeding, Survival, and Fecundity of Adult Emerald Ash Borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) on Foliage of Two Novel Hosts and Implications for Host Range Expansion

Insect herbivores are more likely to successfully use a novel host if the plant is closely related to the ancestral host and the insect is polyphagous. Emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is a specialist wood borer of ash (Fraxinus spp., Lamiales: Oleaceae) trees and one of the most destructive forest pests in North American forests. Recent studies have found that larvae can develop in stems of two ash relatives; white fringetree (Chionanthus virginicus (L.) [Laminales: Oleaceae]) and cultivated olive (Olea europaea (L.) [Laminales: Oleaceae]). For EAB adults, the ability to consume, successfully mate, and lay viable eggs on foliage of these hosts is unknown. Thus, we conducted two no-choice assays with adult EAB on foliage of white fringetree and olive paired with positive controls of susceptible ash. Larval performance was also examined in a reciprocal study with cut stems of white fringetree and green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marshall) to determine whether adult diet impacted the success of progeny. Longevity, consumption rates, and fecundity of adults were similar on white fringetree and ash foliage. In contrast, adults consuming olive died quickly, consumed more over time, and females laid far fewer eggs compared to those on ash. Adult diet did not impact larval success, but larvae in white fringetree stems grew slower. These results indicate that white fringetree is a suitable host for EAB to complete its lifecycle, although larvae perform more poorly on this host than in susceptible ash species. In contrast, the more distantly related olive appears to be a poor host for adult EAB, although some viable eggs were produced by females.

A probabilistic census-travel model to predict introduction sites of exotic plant, animal and human pathogens

International travel offers an extensive network for new and recurring human-mediated introductions of exotic infectious pathogens and biota, freeing geographical constraints. We present a predictive census-travel model that integrates international travel with endpoint census data and epidemiological characteristics to predict points of introduction. Population demographics, inbound and outbound travel patterns, and quantification of source strength by country are combined to estimate and rank risk of introduction at user-scalable land parcel areas (e.g. state, county, zip code, census tract, gridded landscapes (1 mi², 5 km², etc.)). This risk ranking by parcel can be used to develop pathogen surveillance programmes, and has been incorporated in multiple US state/federal surveillance protocols. The census-travel model is versatile and independent of pathosystems, and applies a risk algorithm to generate risk maps for plant, human and animal contagions at different spatial scales. An interactive, user-friendly interface is available online (https://epi-models.shinyapps.io/Census_Travel/) to provide ease-of-use for regulatory agencies for early detection of high-risk exotics. The interface allows users to parametrize and run the model without knowledge of background code and underpinning data. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Potential Economic Impacts of the Asian Longhorned Beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Eastern Canada

The Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) continues to pose a significant risk to deciduous forests around the world. We assess Asian longhorned beetle-related risks in eastern Canada by generating current and future climate suitability maps, import-based likelihood of introduction estimates for each urban center in our study area, and potential economic impacts in both urban and natural settings. For the current period, climatic suitability for Asian longhorned beetle was highest in southern Ontario, but was projected to expand significantly northward and eastward by midcentury. High likelihood of Asian longhorned beetle introduction was associated with large urban centers, but also smaller centers with high levels of pest-associated imports. Potential costs for the removal and replacement of Asian longhorned beetle-impacted street trees ranged from CDN$8.6 to $12.2 billion, with the exact amount and city-level ranking depending on the method used to calculate risk. Potential losses of merchantable maple (Acer) timber were estimated at CDN$1.6 billion using provincial stumpage fees and CDN$431 million annually when calculated using a combination of economic and forestry product statistics. The gross value of edible maple products, which could potentially be affected by Asian longhorned beetle, was estimated at CDN$358 million annually. These values can help inform the scale of early detection surveys, potential eradication efforts, and research budgets in the event of future Asian longhorned beetle introductions.

The early detection of and rapid response (EDRR) to invasive species: a conceptual framework and federal capacities assessment

Globalization necessitates that we address the negative externalities of international trade and transport, including biological invasion. The US government defines invasive species to mean, “with regard to a particular ecosystem, a non-native organism whose introduction causes, or is likely to cause, economic or environmental harm, or harm to human, animal, or plant health.” Here we address the role of early detection of and rapid response to invasive species (EDRR) in minimizing the impact of invasive species on US interests. We provide a review of EDRR’s usage as a federal policy and planning term, introduce a new conceptual framework for EDRR, and assess US federal capacities for enacting well-coordinated EDRR. Developing a national EDRR program is a worthwhile goal; our assessment nonetheless indicates that the federal government and its partners need to overcome substantial conceptual, institutional, and operational challenges that include establishing clear and consistent terminology use, strategically identifying and communicating agency functions, improving interagency budgeting, facilitating the application of emerging technologies and other resources to support EDRR, and making information relevant to EDRR preparedness and implementation more readily accessible. This paper is the first in a special issue of Biological Invasions that includes 12 complementary papers intended to inform the development and implementation of a national EDRR program.

Biosecurity risks posed by a large sea-going passenger vessel: challenges of terrestrial arthropod species detection and eradication

Large sea-going passenger vessels can pose a high biosecurity risk. The risk posed by marine species is well documented, but rarely the risk posed by terrestrial arthropods. We conducted the longest running, most extensive monitoring program of terrestrial arthropods undertaken on board a passenger vessel. Surveillance was conducted over a 19-month period on a large passenger (cruise) vessel that originated in the Baltic Sea (Estonia). The vessel was used as an accommodation facility to house workers at Barrow Island (Australia) for 15 months, during which 73,061 terrestrial arthropods (222 species - four non-indigenous (NIS) to Australia) were collected and identified on board. Detection of Tribolium destructor Uytt., a high-risk NIS to Australia, triggered an eradication effort on the vessel. This effort totalled more than 13,700 human hours and included strict biosecurity protocols to ensure that this and other non-indigenous species (NIS) were not spread from the vessel to Barrow Island or mainland Australia. Our data demonstrate that despite the difficulties of biosecurity on large vessels, stringent protocols can stop NIS spreading from vessels, even where vessel-wide eradication is not possible. We highlight the difficulties associated with detecting and eradicating NIS on large vessels and provide the first detailed list of species that inhabit a vessel of this kind.

Will growing invasive arthropod biodiversity outpace our ability for eradication?

The Global Eradication Database documents 811 eradication attempts against invasive arthropods since 1890, in 104 countries. Eradication programs show a greater than exponential increase in the number of programs started in recent decades. In addition, there is a trend of a rapidly diversifying burden of the most severe threats. The species richness showed a three-fold increase in number of species under eradication in the last 50 yr, and all taxonomic levels rose dramatically. The increase in number of eradication programs shows that current management measures for constraining the spread of invasive species are inadequate. A similar surge in the number of governments trying to prevent the establishment of new pests has occurred. Increased biodiversity of arthropod eradication targets includes new pest groups with fewer tools developed for management. We argue that a rapid increase in biodiversity of invasive and economically or environmentally damaging organisms represents a substantial and underestimated challenge for managers wanting to prevent their establishment, requiring a shift in research focus to accelerate delimitation and suppression options with less reliance on insecticides.

The failure of success: cyclic recurrences of a globally invasive pest

In the six decades since 1960, the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), has been announced successfully eradicated in California by the U.S. Department of Agriculture a total of 564 times. This includes eradication declarations in one city a total of 25 different years, in 12 cities 8-19 different years, and in 101 cities 2-7 different years. We here show that the false negatives in declaring elimination success hinge on the easily achieved regulatory criteria, which have virtually guaranteed the failure of complete extirpation of this pest. Analyses of the time series of fly detection over California placed on a grid of 100-km² cells revealed (1) partial success of the eradication program in controlling the invasion of the oriental fruit fly; (2) low prevalence of the initial detection in these cells is often followed by high prevalence of recurrences; (3) progressively shorter intervals between years of consecutive detections; and (4) high likelihood of early-infested cells also experiencing the most frequent outbreaks. Facing the risk of recurrent invasions, such short-term eradication programs have only succeeded annually according to the current regulatory criteria but have failed to achieve the larger goal of complete extirpation of the oriental fruit fly. Based on the components and running costs of the current programs, we further estimated the efficiency of eradication programs with different combinations of eradication radius, duration, and edge impermeability in reducing invasion recurrences and slowing the spread of the oriental fruit fly. We end with policy implications including the need for agricultural agencies worldwide to revisit eradication protocols in which monitoring and treatments are terminated when the regulatory criteria for declaring eradication are met. Our results also have direct implications to invasion biologists and agriculture policy makers regarding long-term risks of short-term expediency.

Using DNA barcoding to improve invasive pest identification at U.S. ports-of-entry

Interception of potential invasive species at ports-of-entry is essential for effective biosecurity and biosurveillance programs. However, taxonomic assessment of the immature stages of most arthropods is challenging; characters for identification are often dependent on adult morphology and reproductive structures. This study aims to strengthen the identification of such specimens through DNA barcoding, with a focus on microlepidoptera. A sample of 241 primarily immature microlepidoptera specimens intercepted at U.S. ports-of-entry from 2007 to 2011 were selected for analysis. From this sample, 201 COI-5P sequences were generated and analyzed for concordance between morphology-based and DNA-based identifications. The retrospective analysis of the data over 10 years (2009 to 2019) using the Barcode of Life Data (BOLD) system demonstrates the importance of establishing and growing DNA barcode reference libraries for use in specimen identification. Additionally, analysis of specimen identification using public data (43.3% specimens identified) vs. non-public data (78.6% specimens identified) highlights the need to encourage researchers to make data publicly accessible. DNA barcoding surpassed morphological identification with 42.3% (public) and 66.7% (non-public) of the sampled specimens achieving a species-level identification, compared to 38.3% species-level identification by morphology. Whilst DNA barcoding was not able to identify all specimens in our dataset, its incorporation into border security programs as an adjunct to morphological identification can provide secondary lines of evidence and lower taxonomic resolution in many cases. Furthermore, with increased globalization, database records need to be clearly annotated for suspected specimen origin versus interception location.

Woody Regeneration Response to Overstory Mortality Caused by the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

Adelges tsugae Annand (hemlock woolly adelgid, HWA, an invasive insect native to Japan), which causes defoliation and death of Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière (eastern hemlock), was introduced to the United States in the early 1950s and has spread throughout much of the range of T. canadensis causing widespread mortality. In 2016 and 2017, we resampled long-term vegetation monitoring plots across five forest types (ecogroups) within Great Smoky Mountains National Park that contained T. canadensis in 2003 (prior to the spread of HWA within the park) to examine changes in the species composition and diversity of the regeneration layer. We hypothesized that compositional changes in the seedling and sapling strata would be driven primarily by the pre-HWA importance value of T. canadensis and relative dominance of Rhododendron maximum L. (rosebay rhododendron), and that species diversity metrics would differ across year depending on ecogroup and the relative dominance of R. maximum. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (NMDS) revealed that the seedling and sapling strata of plots with greater pre-HWA importance of T. canadensis and lower basal area of R. maximum generally exhibited greater compositional change between 2003 and 2017. Topo-edaphic variables were also significant in both NMDS ordinations and were associated with the distribution of multiple hardwood species. Species richness, evenness, and Shannon-Wiener diversity varied with strata following the loss of T. canadensis, with the degree and direction of change varying with the dominance of R. maximum.

The value of sentinel plants for risk assessment and surveillance to support biosecurity

Effective surveillance for early detection of invasive alien species in natural ecosystems, or on valued plants found in modified areas, could prevent potentially devastating and costly impacts (whether environmental, economic or cultural) of new invasions on the invaded country. Surveillance technologies are often constrained by a range of factors. Determining which species present a significant risk before they reach the border is an effective strategy to minimize the possibility of invasion and/or the impact of invasion. Surveillance of sentinel plants provides an important tool to strengthen biosecurity programs assisting with i) detecting and identifying insect pests, nematodes and plant diseases that could potentially invade uncolonized countries, and ii) developing pest risk analysis profiles to eliminate or mitigate the risk of arrival. This review examines some of the challenges and opportunities provided by sentinel plant research and discusses the factors that could affect the success of their use for biosecurity risk assessment and surveillance in the New Zealand context.

Predictive Modeling and Categorizing Likelihoods of Quarantine Pest Introduction of Imported Propagative Commodities from Different Countries

The present study investigates U.S. Department of Agriculture inspection records in the Agricultural Quarantine Activity System database to estimate the probability of quarantine pests on propagative plant materials imported from various countries of origin and to develop a methodology ranking the risk of country-commodity combinations based on quarantine pest interceptions. Data collected from October 2014 to January 2016 were used for developing predictive models and validation study. A generalized linear model with Bayesian inference and a generalized linear mixed effects model were used to compare the interception rates of quarantine pests on different country-commodity combinations. Prediction ability of generalized linear mixed effects models was greater than that of generalized linear models. The estimated pest interception probability and confidence interval for each country-commodity combination was categorized into one of four compliance levels: "High," "Medium," "Low," and "Poor/Unacceptable," Using K-means clustering analysis. This study presents risk-based categorization for each country-commodity combination based on the probability of quarantine pest interceptions and the uncertainty in that assessment.

A Subcontinental Analysis of Forest Fragmentation Effects on Insect and Disease Invasion

The influences of human and physical factors on species invasions have been extensively examined by ecologists across many regions. However, how habitat fragmentation per se may affect forest insect and disease invasion has not been well studied, especially the related patterns over regional or subcontinental scales. Here, using national survey data on forest pest richness and fragmentation data across United States forest ecosystems, we examine how forest fragmentation and edge types (neighboring land cover) may affect pest richness at the county level. Our results show that habitat fragmentation and edge types both affected pest richness. In general, specialist insects and pathogens were more sensitive to fragmentation and edge types than generalists, while pathogens were much less sensitive to fragmentation and edge types than insect pests. Most importantly, the developed land edge type contributed the most to the richness of nonnative insects and diseases, whether measured by the combination of all pest species or by separate guilds or species groups (i.e., generalists vs. specialists, insects vs. pathogens). This observation may largely reflect anthropogenic effects, including propagule pressure associated with human activities. These results shed new insights into the patterns of forest pest invasions, and it may have significant implications for forest restoration and management.

Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

Fall armyworm, Spodopterafrugiperda, is a crop pest native to the Americas, which has invaded and spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa within two years. Recent estimates of 20–50% maize yield loss in Africa suggest severe impact on livelihoods. Fall armyworm is still infilling its potential range in Africa and could spread to other continents. In order to understand fall armyworm’s year-round, global, potential distribution, we used evidence of the effects of temperature and precipitation on fall armyworm life-history, combined with data on native and African distributions to construct Species Distribution Models (SDMs). We also investigated the strength of trade and transportation pathways that could carry fall armyworm beyond Africa. Up till now, fall armyworm has only invaded areas that have a climate similar to the native distribution, validating the use of climatic SDMs. The strongest climatic limits on fall armyworm’s year-round distribution are the coldest annual temperature and the amount of rain in the wet season. Much of sub-Saharan Africa can host year-round fall armyworm populations, but the likelihoods of colonising North Africa and seasonal migrations into Europe are hard to predict. South and Southeast Asia and Australia have climate conditions that would permit fall armyworm to invade. Current trade and transportation routes reveal Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand face high threat of fall armyworm invasions originating from Africa.