Distinct invasion sources of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Eastern and Western Europe

Environmental impacts on intraspecific variation in Ambrosia artemisiifolia genome size in Slovakia, Central Europe

The quantity of DNA in angiosperms exhibits variation attributed to many external influences, such as environmental factors, geographical features, or stress factors, which exert constant selection pressure on organisms. Since invasive species possess adaptive capabilities to acclimate to novel environmental conditions, ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) was chosen as a subject for investigating their influence on genome size variation. Slovakia has diverse climatic conditions, suitable for testing the hypothesis that air temperature and precipitation, the main limiting factors of ragweed occurrence, would also have an impact on its genome size. Our results using flow cytometry confirmed this hypothesis and also found a significant association with geographical features such as latitude, altitude, and longitude. We can conclude that plants growing in colder environments farther from oceanic influences exhibit smaller DNA amounts, while optimal growth conditions result in a greater variability in genome size, reflecting the diminished effect of selection pressure.

China-US grain trade shapes the spatial genetic pattern of common ragweed in East China cities

Common ragweed is an invasive alien species causing severe allergies in urban residents. Understanding its urban invasion pathways is crucial for effective control. However, knowledge is limited, with most studies focusing on agricultural and natural areas, and occurrence record-based studies exhibiting uncertainties. We address this gap through a study in East China cities, combining population genetics and occurrence records. Leaf samples from 37 urban common ragweed populations across 15 cities are collected. Genomic and chloroplast DNA extraction facilitate analysis of spatial genetic patterns and gene flows. Additionally, international grain trade data is examined to trace invasion sources. Results indicate spatial genetic patterns impacted by multiple introductions over time. We infer the modern grain trade between the United States and China as the primary invasion pathway. Also, cities act as transportation hubs and ports of grain importation might disperse common ragweed to urban areas. Invasive species control should account for cities as potential landing and spread hubs of common ragweed.

Genetic structuring and invasion status of the perennial Ambrosia psilostachya (Asteraceae) in Europe

The perennial western ragweed (Ambrosia psilostachya DC.) arrived from North America to Europe in the late nineteenth century and behaves invasive in its non-native range. Due to its efficient vegetative propagation via root suckers, A. psilostachya got naturalized in major parts of Europe forming extensive populations in Mediterranean coastal areas. The invasion history, the spreading process, the relationships among the populations as well as population structuring is not yet explored. This paper aims to give first insights into the population genetics of A. psilostachya in its non-native European range based on 60 sampled populations and 15 Simple Sequence Repeats (SSR). By AMOVA analysis we detected 10.4% of genetic variation occurring among (pre-defined) regions. These regions represent important harbors for trading goods from America to Europe that might have served as source for founder populations. Bayesian Clustering revealed that spatial distribution of genetic variation of populations is best explained by six groups, mainly corresponding to regions around important harbors. As northern populations show high degrees of clonality and lowest levels of within-population genetic diversity (mean H_o = 0.40 ± 0.09), they could preserve the initial genetic variation levels by long-lived clonal genets. In Mediterranean populations A. psilostachya expanded to millions of shoots. Some of those were obviously spread by sea current along the coast to new sites, where they initiated populations characterized by a lower genetic diversity. For the future, the invasion history in Europe might get clearer after consideration of North American source populations of western ragweed.

Uncovering the genomic basis of an extraordinary plant invasion

Invasive species are a key driver of the global biodiversity crisis, but the drivers of invasiveness, including the role of pathogens, remain debated. We investigated the genomic basis of invasiveness in Ambrosia artemisiifolia (common ragweed), introduced to Europe in the late 19th century, by resequencing 655 ragweed genomes, including 308 herbarium specimens collected up to 190 years ago. In invasive European populations, we found selection signatures in defense genes and lower prevalence of disease-inducing plant pathogens. Together with temporal changes in population structure associated with introgression from closely related Ambrosia species, escape from specific microbial enemies likely favored the plant's remarkable success as an invasive species.

Natura 2000 Areas, Road, Railway, Water, and Ecological Networks May Provide Pathways for Biological Invasion: A Country Scale Analysis

Invasive species are a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. Controlling their rapid spread can only be effective if we consider the geographical factors that influence their occurrence. For instance, roads, railway networks, green and blue infrastructure, and elements of ecological networks (e.g., ecological corridors) can facilitate the spread of invasive species. In our study, we mapped the occurrence of five invasive plant taxa (tree of heaven, common milkweed, Russian olive, black locust, and goldenrods) in Hungary, using field photos from the EUROSTAT Land Use and Coverage Area Frame Survey (LUCAS) database from the year 2015. Species point occurrence data were compared with the spatial characteristics of linear transport infrastructure and with the green and blue infrastructure. We found that the occurrence of tree of heaven and Russian olive was strongly related to the road and railway network. The average Euclidean distance of LUCAS points infected with these species from railway embankments and roads was much smaller than that of uninfected points. However, black locust and goldenrods were more common only along the road network. According to our results, the occurrence of some investigated invasive plants was over-represented in the HEN and within Natura 2000 areas of Hungary compared to non-infected points. Our results may provide important information for predicting the rate of invasion and for applying targeted management within the HEN, and Natura 2000 protected areas.

Parallel flowering time clines in native and introduced ragweed populations are likely due to adaptation

As introduced species expand their ranges, they often encounter differences in climate which are often correlated with geography. For introduced species, encountering a geographically variable climate sometimes leads to the re-establishment of clines seen in the native range. However, clines can also be caused by neutral processes, and so it is important to gather additional evidence that population differentiation is the result of selection as opposed to nonadaptive processes. Here, we examine phenotypic and genetic differences in ragweed from the native (North America) and introduced (European) ranges. We used a common garden to assess phenotypic differentiation in size and flowering time in ragweed populations. We found significant parallel clines in flowering time in both North America and Europe. Height and branch number had significant clines in North America, and, while not statistically significant, the patterns in Europe were the same. We used SNP data to assess population structure in both ranges and to compare phenotypic differentiation to neutral genetic variation. We failed to detect significant patterns of isolation by distance, geographic patterns in population structure, or correlations between the major axes of SNP variation and phenotypes or latitude of origin. We conclude that the North American clines in size and the parallel clines seen for flowering time are most likely the result of adaptation.

Rapid growth and defence evolution following multiple introductions

Rapid adaptation can aid invasive populations in their competitive success. Resource allocation trade-off hypotheses predict higher resource availability or the lack of natural enemies in introduced ranges allow for increased growth and reproduction, thus contributing to invasive success. Evidence for such hypotheses is however equivocal and tests among multiple ranges over productivity gradients are required to provide a better understanding of the general applicability of these theories.Using common gardens, we investigated the adaptive divergence of various constitutive and inducible defence-related traits between the native North American and introduced European and Australian ranges, while controlling for divergence due to latitudinal trait clines, individual resource budgets, and population differentiation, using >11,000 SNPs.Rapid, repeated clinal adaptation in defence-related traits was apparent despite distinct demographic histories. We also identified divergence among ranges in some defence-related traits, although differences in energy budgets among ranges may explain some, but not all, defence-related trait divergence. We do not identify a general reduction in defence in concert with an increase in growth among the multiple introduced ranges as predicted trade-off hypotheses. Synthesis: The rapid spread of invasive species is affected by a multitude of factors, likely including adaptation to climate and escape from natural enemies. Unravelling the mechanisms underlying invasives' success enhances understanding of eco-evolutionary theory and is essential to inform management strategies in the face of ongoing climate change.

OPEN RESEARCH BADGES

This article has been awarded Open Materials, Open Data, Preregistered Research Designs Badges. All materials and data are publicly accessible via the Open Science Framework at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.8028875.v1, https://github.com/lotteanna/defence_adaptation,https://doi.org/10.1101/435271.

Rapid and repeated local adaptation to climate in an invasive plant

Biological invasions provide opportunities to study evolutionary processes occurring over contemporary timescales. To explore the speed and repeatability of adaptation, we examined the divergence of life-history traits to climate, using latitude as a proxy, in the native North American and introduced European and Australian ranges of the annual plant Ambrosia artemisiifolia. We explored niche changes following introductions using climate niche dynamic models. In a common garden, we examined trait divergence by growing seeds collected across three ranges with highly distinct demographic histories. Heterozygosity-fitness associations were used to explore the effect of invasion history on potential success. We accounted for nonadaptive population differentiation using 11 598 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We revealed a centroid shift to warmer, wetter climates in the introduced ranges. We identified repeated latitudinal divergence in life-history traits, with European and Australian populations positioned at either end of the native clines. Our data indicate rapid and repeated adaptation to local climates despite the recent introductions and a bottleneck limiting genetic variation in Australia. Centroid shifts in the introduced ranges suggest adaptation to more productive environments, potentially contributing to trait divergence between the ranges.

Sequencing the Plastid Genome of Giant Ragweed (Ambrosia trifida, Asteraceae) From a Herbarium Specimen

We report the first plastome sequence of giant ragweed (Ambrosia trifida); with this new genome information, we assessed the phylogeny of Asteraceae and the transcriptional profiling against glyphosate resistance in giant ragweed. Assembly and genic features show a normal angiosperm quadripartite plastome structure with no signatures of deviation in gene directionality. Comparative analysis revealed large inversions across the plastome of giant ragweed and the previously sequenced members of the plant family. Asteraceae plastid genomes contain two inversions of 22.8 and 3.3 kb; the former is located between trnS-GCU and trnG-UCC genes, and the latter between trnE-UUC and trnT-GGU genes. The plastid genome sequences of A. trifida and the related species, Ambrosia artemisiifolia, are identical in gene content and arrangement, but they differ in length. The phylogeny is well-resolved and congruent with previous hypotheses about the phylogenetic relationship of Asteraceae. Transcriptomic analysis revealed divergence in the relative expressions at the exonic and intronic levels, providing hints toward the ecological adaptation of the genus. Giant ragweed shows various levels of glyphosate resistance, with introns displaying higher expression patterns at resistant time points after the assumed herbicide treatment.

Deciphering the biology of Cryptophyllachora eurasiatica gen. et sp. nov., an often cryptic pathogen of an allergenic weed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia

A little known, unculturable ascomycete, referred to as Phyllachora ambrosiae, can destroy the inflorescences of Ambrosia artemisiifolia, an invasive agricultural weed and producer of highly allergenic pollen. The fungus often remains undetectable in ragweed populations. This work was conducted to understand its origin and pathogenesis, a prerequisite to consider its potential as a biocontrol agent. The methods used included light and transmission electron microscopy, nrDNA sequencing, phylogenetic analyses, artificial inoculations, and the examination of old herbarium and recent field specimens from Hungary, Korea, Ukraine and USA. The Eurasian and the North American specimens of this fungus were to represent two distinct, although closely related lineages that were only distantly related to other lineages within the Ascomycota. Consequently, we describe a new genus that includes Cryptophyllachora eurasiatica gen. et sp. nov. and C. ambrosiae comb. nov., respectively. The pathogenesis of C. eurasiatica was shown in A. artemisiifolia. No evidence was found for either seed-borne transmission or systemic infection. Two hypotheses were developed to explain the interaction between C. eurasiatica and A. artemisiifolia: (i) as yet undetected seed-borne transmissions and latent, systemic infections; or (ii) alternative hosts.

New gSSR and EST-SSR markers reveal high genetic diversity in the invasive plant Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. and can be transferred to other invasive Ambrosia species

Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., (common ragweed), is an annual invasive and highly troublesome plant species originating from North America that has become widespread across Europe. New sets of genomic and expressed sequence tag (EST) based simple sequence repeats (SSRs) markers were developed in this species using three approaches. After validation, 13 genomic SSRs and 13 EST-SSRs were retained and used to characterize the genetic diversity and population genetic structure of Ambrosia artemisiifolia populations from the native (North America) and invasive (Europe) ranges of the species. Analysing the mating system based on maternal families did not reveal any departure from complete allogamy and excess homozygosity was mostly due the presence of null alleles. High genetic diversity and patterns of genetic structure in Europe suggest two main introduction events followed by secondary colonization events. Cross-species transferability of the newly developed markers to other invasive species of the Ambrosia genus was assessed. Sixty-five percent and 75% of markers, respectively, were transferable from A. artemisiifolia to Ambrosia psilostachya and Ambrosia tenuifolia. 40% were transferable to Ambrosia trifida, this latter species being seemingly more phylogenetically distantly related to A. artemisiifolia than the former two.

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in 'high allergy risk' (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27-100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

Phenological Variation in Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. Facilitates Near Future Establishment at Northern Latitudes

The invasive weed Ambrosia artemisiifolia (common ragweed) constitutes a great threat to public health and agriculture in large areas of the globe. Climate change, characterized by higher temperatures and prolonged vegetation periods, could increase the risk of establishment in northern Europe in the future. However, as the species is a short-day plant that requires long nights to induce bloom formation, it might still fail to produce mature seeds before the onset of winter in areas at northern latitudes characterized by short summer nights. To survey the genetic variation in flowering time and study the effect of latitudinal origin on this trait, a reciprocal common garden experiment, including eleven populations of A. artemisiifolia from Europe and North America, was conducted. The experiment was conducted both outside the range limit of the species, in Sweden and within its invaded range, in Croatia. Our main hypothesis was that the photoperiodic-thermal requirements of A. artemisiifolia constitute a barrier for reproduction at northern latitudes and, thus, halts the northern range shift despite expected climate change. Results revealed the presence of a north-south gradient in flowering time at both garden sites, indicating that certain European populations are pre-adapted to photoperiodic and thermal conditions at latitudes up to, at least, 60° N. This was confirmed by phenological recordings performed in a region close to the northern range limit, the north of Germany. Thus, we conclude that there exists a high risk for establishment and spread of A. artemisiifolia in FennoScandinavia in the near future. The range shift might occur independently of climate change, but would be accelerated by it.

Is ragweed pollen allergenicity governed by environmental conditions during plant growth and flowering?

Pollen allergenicity is one of the main factors influencing the prevalence and/or severity of allergic diseases. However, how genotype and environment contribute to ragweed pollen allergenicity has still to be established. To throw some light on the factors governing allergenicity, in this work 180 ragweed plants from three Regions (Canada, France, Italy) were grown in both controlled (constant) and standard environmental conditions (seasonal changes in temperature, relative humidity and light). Pollen from single plants was characterized for its allergenic potency and for the underlying regulation mechanisms by studying the qualitative and quantitative variations of the main isoforms of the major ragweed allergen Amb a 1. Results showed a statistically higher variability in allergenicity of pollen from standard conditions than from controlled conditions growing plants. This variability was due to differences among single plants, regardless of their origin, and was not ascribed to differences in the expression and IgE reactivity of individual Amb a 1 isoforms but rather to quantitative differences involving all the studied isoforms. It suggests that the allergenic potency of ragweed pollen and thus the severity of ragweed pollinosis mainly depends on environmental conditions during plant growth and flowering, which regulate the total Amb a 1 content.

The population genomic basis of geographic differentiation in North American common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.)

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is an invasive, wind-pollinated plant nearly ubiquitous in disturbed sites in its eastern North American native range and present across growing portions of Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. Phenotypic divergence between European and native-range populations has been described as rapid evolution. However, a recent study demonstrated major human-mediated shifts in ragweed genetic structure before introduction to Europe and suggested that native-range genetic structure and local adaptation might fully explain accelerated growth and other invasive characteristics of introduced populations. Genomic differentiation that potentially influenced this structure has not yet been investigated, and it remains unclear whether substantial admixture during historical disturbance of the native range contributed to the development of invasiveness in introduced European ragweed populations. To investigate fine-scale population genetic structure across the species' native range, we characterized diallelic SNP loci via a reduced-representation genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) approach. We corroborate phylogeographic domains previously discovered using traditional sequencing methods, while demonstrating increased power to resolve weak genetic structure in this highly admixed plant species. By identifying exome polymorphisms underlying genetic differentiation, we suggest that geographic differentiation of this important invasive species has occurred more often within pathways that regulate growth and response to defense and stress, which may be associated with survival in North America's diverse climatic regions.

Is There Any Evidence for Rapid, Genetically-Based, Climatic Niche Expansion in the Invasive Common Ragweed?

Climatic niche shifts have been documented in a number of invasive species by comparing the native and adventive climatic ranges in which they occur. However, these shifts likely represent changes in the realized climatic niches of invasive species, and may not necessarily be driven by genetic changes in climatic affinities. Until now the role of rapid niche evolution in the spread of invasive species remains a challenging issue with conflicting results. Here, we document a likely genetically-based climatic niche expansion of an annual plant invader, the common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a highly allergenic invasive species causing substantial public health issues. To do so, we looked for recent evolutionary change at the upward migration front of its adventive range in the French Alps. Based on species climatic niche models estimated at both global and regional scales we stratified our sampling design to adequately capture the species niche, and localized populations suspected of niche expansion. Using a combination of species niche modeling, landscape genetics models and common garden measurements, we then related the species genetic structure and its phenotypic architecture across the climatic niche. Our results strongly suggest that the common ragweed is rapidly adapting to local climatic conditions at its invasion front and that it currently expands its niche toward colder and formerly unsuitable climates in the French Alps (i.e. in sites where niche models would not predict its occurrence). Such results, showing that species climatic niches can evolve on very short time scales, have important implications for predictive models of biological invasions that do not account for evolutionary processes.

Low genetic diversity despite multiple introductions of the invasive plant species Impatiens glandulifera in Europe

Background

Invasive species can be a major threat to native biodiversity and the number of invasive plant species is increasing across the globe. Population genetic studies of invasive species can provide key insights into their invasion history and ensuing evolution, but also for their control. Here we genetically characterise populations of Impatiens glandulifera, an invasive plant in Europe that can have a major impact on native plant communities. We compared populations from the species’ native range in Kashmir, India, to those in its invaded range, along a latitudinal gradient in Europe. For comparison, the results from 39 other studies of genetic diversity in invasive species were collated.

Results

Our results suggest that I. glandulifera was established in the wild in Europe at least twice, from an area outside of our Kashmir study area. Our results further revealed that the genetic diversity in invasive populations of I. glandulifera is unusually low compared to native populations, in particular when compared to other invasive species. Genetic drift rather than mutation seems to have played a role in differentiating populations in Europe. We find evidence of limitations to local gene flow after introduction to Europe, but somewhat less restrictions in the native range. I. glandulifera populations with significant inbreeding were only found in the species’ native range and invasive species in general showed no increase in inbreeding upon leaving their native ranges. In Europe we detect cases of migration between distantly located populations. Human activities therefore seem to, at least partially, have facilitated not only introductions, but also further spread of I. glandulifera across Europe.

Conclusions

Although multiple introductions will facilitate the retention of genetic diversity in invasive ranges, widespread invasive species can remain genetically relatively invariant also after multiple introductions. Phenotypic plasticity may therefore be an important component of the successful spread of Impatiens glandulifera across Europe.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12863-015-0242-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Life history trait differentiation and local adaptation in invasive populations of Ambrosia artemisiifolia in China

Local adaptation has been suggested to play an important role in range expansion, particularly among invasive species. However, the extent to which local adaptation affects the success of an invasive species and the factors that contribute to local adaptation are still unclear. This study aimed to investigate a case of population divergence that may have contributed to the local adaptation of invasive populations of Ambrosia artemisiifolia in China. Common garden experiments in seven populations indicated clinal variations along latitudinal gradients, with plants from higher latitudes exhibiting earlier flowering and smaller sizes at flowering. In reciprocal transplant experiments, plants of a northern Beijing origin produced more seeds at their home site than plants of a southern Wuhan origin, and the Wuhan-origin plants had grown taller at flowering than the Beijing-origin plants in Wuhan, which is believed to facilitate pollen dispersal. These results suggest that plants of Beijing origin may be locally adapted through female fitness and plants from Wuhan possibly locally adapted through male fitness. Selection and path analysis suggested that the phenological and growth traits of both populations have been influenced by natural selection and that flowering time has played an important role through its direct and indirect effects on the relative fitness of each individual. This study evidences the life history trait differentiation and local adaptation during range expansion of invasive A. artemisiifolia in China.

Interactive effects of nitrogen addition, warming and invasion across organizational levels in an old-field plant community

Response to global change is dependent on the level of biological organization (e.g. the ecologically relevant spatial scale) in which species are embedded. For example, individual responses can affect population-level responses, which, in turn, can affect community-level responses. Although relationships are known to exist among responses to global change across levels of biological organization, formal investigations of these relationships are still uncommon. I conducted an exploratory analysis to identify how nitrogen addition and warming by open top chambers might affect plants across spatial scales by estimating treatment effect size at the leaf level, the plant level and the community level. Moreover, I investigated if the presence of Pityopsis aspera, an experimentally introduced plant species, modified the relationship between spatial scale and effect size across treatments. I found that, overall, the spatial scale significantly contributes to differences in effect size, supporting previous work which suggests that mechanisms driving biotic response to global change are scale dependent. Interestingly, the relationship between spatial scale and effect size in both the absence and presence of experimental invasion is very similar for nitrogen addition and warming treatments. The presence of invasion, however, did not affect the relationship between spatial scale and effect size, suggesting that in this system, invasion may not exacerbate or attenuate climate change effects. This exercise highlights the value of moving beyond integration and scaling to the practice of directly testing for scale effects within single experiments.

Heterogeneity in ragweed pollen exposure is determined by plant composition at small spatial scales

Pollen allergies are one of the most common health problems in the United States and over 20% of Americans are sensitized to the pollen produced by common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.). Despite the importance of allergenic pollen to public health, no research has linked land use and plant populations to spatial heterogeneity in airborne pollen concentrations. In order to quantify these relationships and elucidate the processes which lead to pollen exposure, we surveyed ragweed stem density in Detroit (Michigan, USA) as a function of land use. We then deployed 34 pollen collectors throughout the city and recorded ragweed cover in the immediate vicinity of each pollen collector. We found that ragweed populations were highest in vacant lots, a common land cover type in Detroit. Because ragweed population density was so strongly correlated to vacant lots, for which spatially explicit data were available, we were able to investigate whether observed ragweed pollen concentrations were a function of land use at the spatial scales of 10 m and 1 km. Both relationships were significant, and the combination of these two variables predicts a large portion of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations (R(2)=0.48). These results emphasize the important role of pollen production within the urban environment and show that management of allergenic pollen producing plants must be considered at multiple spatial scales. Our findings also demonstrate that there is too much spatial heterogeneity for a pollen collector at any given site to portray the allergenic pollen load experienced by different individuals within the same city. Finally, we discuss how spatial correlations between socio-economic status, vacant lots, and ragweed could help to explain the disproportionate amount of allergies and ragweed sensitization experienced by low income and minority populations in Detroit.

Predicting daily ragweed pollen concentrations using Computational Intelligence techniques over two heavily polluted areas in Europe

Forecasting ragweed pollen concentration is a useful tool for sensitive people in order to prepare in time for high pollen episodes. The aim of the study is to use methods of Computational Intelligence (CI) (Multi-Layer Perceptron, M5P, REPTree, DecisionStump and MLPRegressor) for predicting daily values of Ambrosia pollen concentrations and alarm levels for 1-7 days ahead for Szeged (Hungary) and Lyon (France), respectively. Ten-year daily mean ragweed pollen data (within 1997-2006) are considered for both cities. 10 input variables are used in the models including pollen level or alarm level on the given day, furthermore the serial number of the given day of the year within the pollen season and altogether 8 meteorological variables. The study has novelties as (1) daily alarm thresholds are firstly predicted in the aerobiological literature; (2) data-driven modelling methods including neural networks have never been used in forecasting daily Ambrosia pollen concentration; (3) algorithm J48 has never been used in palynological forecasts; (4) we apply a rarely used technique, namely factor analysis with special transformation, to detect the importance of the influencing variables in defining the pollen levels for 1-7 days ahead. When predicting pollen concentrations, for Szeged Multi-Layer Perceptron models deliver similar results with tree-based models 1 and 2 days ahead; while for Lyon only Multi-Layer Perceptron provides acceptable result. When predicting alarm levels, the performance of Multi-Layer Perceptron is the best for both cities. It is presented that the selection of the optimal method depends on climate, as a function of geographical location and relief. The results show that the more complex CI methods perform well, and their performance is case-specific for ≥2 days forecasting horizon. A determination coefficient of 0.98 (Ambrosia, Szeged, one day and two days ahead) using Multi-Layer Perceptron ranks this model the best one in the literature.

Germination and seedling frost tolerance differ between the native and invasive range in common ragweed

Germination characteristics and frost tolerance of seedlings are crucial parameters for establishment and invasion success of plants. The characterization of differences between populations in native and invasive ranges may improve our understanding of range expansion and adaptation. Here, we investigated germination characteristics of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., a successful invader in Europe, under a temperature gradient between 5 and 25 °C. Besides rate and speed of germination we determined optimal, minimal and maximal temperature for germination of ten North American and 17 European populations that were sampled along major latitudinal and longitudinal gradients. We furthermore investigated the frost tolerance of seedlings. Germination rate was highest at 15 °C and germination speed was highest at 25 °C. Germination rate, germination speed, frost tolerance of seedlings, and the temperature niche width for germination were significantly higher and broader, respectively, for European populations. This was partly due to a higher seed mass of these populations. Germination traits lacked evidence for adaptation to climatic variables at the point of origin for both provenances. Instead, in the native range, seedling frost tolerance was positively correlated with the risk of frosts which supports the assumption of local adaptation. The increased frost tolerance of European populations may allow germination earlier in the year which may subsequently lead to higher biomass allocation--due to a longer growing period--and result in higher pollen and seed production. The increase in germination rates, germination speed and seedling frost tolerance might result in a higher fitness of the European populations which may facilitate further successful invasion and enhance the existing public health problems associated with this species.

Common ragweed: a threat to environmental health in Europe

Common or short ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is an annual herb belonging to the Asteraceae family that was described by Carl Linnaeus in the 18th century. It is a noxious invasive species that is an important weed in agriculture and a source of highly allergenic pollen. The importance placed on A. artemisiifolia is reflected by the number of international projects that have now been launched by the European Commission and the increasing number of publications being produced on this topic. This review paper examines existing knowledge about ragweed ecology, distribution and flowering phenology and the environmental health risk that this noxious plant poses in Europe. The paper also examines control measures used in the fight against it and state of the art methods for modelling atmospheric concentrations of this important aeroallergen. Common ragweed is an environmental health threat, not only in its native North America but also in many parts of the world where it has been introduced. In Europe, where the plant has now become naturalised and frequently forms part of the flora, the threat posed by ragweed has been identified and steps are being taken to reduce further geographical expansion and limit increases in population densities of the plant in order to protect the allergic population. This is particularly important when one considers possible range shifts, changes in flowering phenology and increases in the amount of pollen and allergenic potency that could be brought about by changes in climate.

The molecular basis of invasiveness: differences in gene expression of native and introduced common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in stressful and benign environments

Although the evolutionary and ecological processes that contribute to plant invasion have been the focus of much research, investigation into the molecular basis of invasion is just beginning. Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an annual weed native to North America and has been introduced to Europe where it has become invasive. Using a custom-designed NimbleGen oligoarray, we examined differences in gene expression between five native and six introduced populations of common ragweed in three different environments (control, light stress and nutrient stress), as well as two different time points. We identified candidate genes that may contribute to invasiveness in common ragweed based on differences in expression between native and introduced populations from Europe. Specifically, we found 180 genes where range explained a significant proportion of the variation in gene expression and a further 103 genes with a significant range by treatment interaction. Several of these genes are potentially involved in the metabolism of secondary compounds, stress response and the detoxification of xenobiotics. Previously, we found more rapid growth and greater reproductive success in introduced populations, particularly in benign and competitive (light stress) environments, and many of these candidate genes potentially underlie these growth differences. We also found expression differences among populations within each range, reflecting either local adaptation or neutral processes, although no associations with climate or latitude were identified. These data provide a first step in identifying genes that are involved with introduction success in an aggressive annual weed.

Nuclear and chloroplast microsatellites show multiple introductions in the worldwide invasion history of common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia

BACKGROUND

Ambrosia artemisiifolia is a North American native that has become one of the most problematic invasive plants in Europe and Asia. We studied its worldwide population genetic structure, using both nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite markers and an unprecedented large population sampling. Our goals were (i) to identify the sources of the invasive populations; (ii) to assess whether all invasive populations were founded by multiple introductions, as previously found in France; (iii) to examine how the introductions have affected the amount and structure of genetic variation in Europe; (iv) to document how the colonization of Europe proceeded; (v) to check whether populations exhibit significant heterozygote deficiencies, as previously observed.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We found evidence for multiple introductions of A. artemisiifolia, within regions but also within populations in most parts of its invasive range, leading to high levels of diversity. In Europe, introductions probably stem from two different regions of the native area: populations established in Central Europe appear to have originated from eastern North America, and Eastern European populations from more western North America. This may result from differential commercial exchanges between these geographic regions. Our results indicate that the expansion in Europe mostly occurred through long-distance dispersal, explaining the absence of isolation by distance and the weak influence of geography on the genetic structure in this area in contrast to the native range. Last, we detected significant heterozygote deficiencies in most populations. This may be explained by partial selfing, biparental inbreeding and/or a Wahlund effect and further investigation is warranted.

CONCLUSIONS

This insight into the sources and pathways of common ragweed expansion may help to better understand its invasion success and provides baseline data for future studies on the evolutionary processes involved during range expansion in novel environments.