Anthropogenic drivers of gypsy moth spread

Forest Insect Biosecurity: Processes, Patterns, Predictions, Pitfalls

The economic and environmental threats posed by non-native forest insects are ever increasing with the continuing globalization of trade and travel; thus, the need for mitigation through effective biosecurity is greater than ever. However, despite decades of research and implementation of preborder, border, and postborder preventative measures, insect invasions continue to occur, with no evidence of saturation, and are even predicted to accelerate. In this article, we review biosecurity measures used to mitigate the arrival, establishment, spread, and impacts of non-native forest insects and possible impediments to the successful implementation of these measures. Biosecurity successes are likely under-recognized because they are difficult to detect and quantify, whereas failures are more evident in the continued establishment of additional non-native species. There are limitations in existing biosecurity systems at global and country scales (for example, inspecting all imports is impossible, no phytosanitary measures are perfect, knownunknowns cannot be regulated against, and noncompliance is an ongoing problem). Biosecurity should be a shared responsibility across countries, governments, stakeholders, and individuals.

Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae): Current Status of Biology, Ecology, and Management in Europe with Notes from North America

The European Spongy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), is an abundant species found in oak woods in Central and Southern Europe, the Near East, and North Africa and is an important economic pest. It is a voracious eater and can completely defoliate entire trees; repeated severe defoliation can add to other stresses, such as weather extremes or human activities. Lymantria dispar is most destructive in its larval stage (caterpillars), stripping away foliage from a broad variety of trees (>500 species). Caterpillar infestation is an underestimated problem; medical literature reports that established populations of caterpillars may cause health problems to people and animals. Inflammatory reactions may occur in most individuals after exposure to setae, independent of previous exposure. Currently, chemical and mechanical methods, natural predators, and silvicultural practices are included for the control of this species. Various insecticides have been used for its control, often through aerial sprayings, which negatively affect biodiversity, frequently fail, and are inappropriate for urban/recreational areas. However, bioinsecticides based on various microorganisms (e.g., entomopathogenic viruses, bacteria, and fungi) as well as technologies such as mating disruption using sex pheromone traps have replaced insecticides for the management of L. dispar.

Size-dependent flight capacity and propensity in a range-expanding invasive insect

For capital-breeding insects, all resources available for adult metabolic needs are accumulated during larval feeding. Therefore, body size at adult eclosion represents the total energetic capacity of the individual. For female capital breeders, body size is strongly correlated with lifetime fecundity, while in males, body size, which correlates with fitness, is less understood. In capital-breeding species with wingless, flightless, or dispersal-limited females, flight potential for male Lepidoptera has important implications for mate-finding and may be correlated with body size. At low population densities, failure to mate has been identified as an important Allee effect and can drive the success or failure of invasive species at range edges and in species of conservation concern. Th capital-breeding European subspecies of Lymantria dispar (L.), was introduced to North America in 1869 and now ranges across much of eastern North America. In L. dispar, females are flightless and mate-finding is entirely performed by males. We quantified male L. dispar flight capacity and propensity relative to morphological and physiological characteristics using fixed-arm flight mills. A range of male body sizes was produced by varying the protein content of standard artificial diets while holding other dietary components constant. Wing length, a proxy for body size, relative thorax mass, and forewing aspect were all important predictors of total flight distance and maximum speed. These results have important implications for mate-finding and invasion dynamics in L. dispar and may apply broadly to other capital-breeding insects.

An Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) For Evaluating the Risk of Import Pathways for the Establishment of Invasive Species

An important aspect of analyzing the risk of unwanted organisms establishing in an area is understanding the pathways by which they arrive. Evaluating the risks of these pathways requires use of data from multiple sources, which frequently are uncertain. To address the needs of agencies responsible for biosecurity operations, we present an Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) for evaluating the risk of establishment and dispersal of invasive species along trade pathways. The IBRAM framework consists of multiple linked models which describe pest entry into the country, escape along trade pathways, initial dispersal into the environment, habitat suitability, probabilities of establishment and spread, and the consequences of these invasions. Bayesian networks (BN) are used extensively to model these processes. The model includes dynamic BN components and geographic data, resulting in distributions of output parameters over spatial and temporal axes. IBRAM is supported by a web-based tool that allows users to run the model on real-world pest examples and investigate the impact of alternative risk management scenarios, to explore the effect of various interventions and resource allocations. Two case studies are provided as examples of how IBRAM may be used: Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) (Diptera: Tephritidae) and brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) are unwanted organisms with the potential to invade Aotearoa New Zealand, and IBRAM has been influential in evaluating the efficacy of pathway management to mitigate the risk of their establishment in the country.

Assessing drivers of localized invasive spread to inform large-scale management of a highly damaging insect pest

Studies of biological invasions at the macroscale or across multiple scales can provide important insights for management, particularly when localized information about invasion dynamics or environmental contexts is unavailable. In this study, we performed a macroscale analysis of the roles of invasion drivers on the local scale dynamics of a high-profile pest, Lymantria dispar dispar L., with the purpose of improving the prioritization of vulnerable areas for treatment. Specifically, we assessed the relative effects of various anthropogenic and environmental variables on the establishment rate of 8010 quadrats at a localized scale (5 × 5 km) across the entire L. dispar transition zone (the area encompassing the leading population edge, currently from Minnesota to North Carolina). We calculated the number of years from first detection of L. dispar in a quadrat to the year when probability of establishment of L. dispar was greater than 99% (i.e., waiting time to establishment after first detection). To assess the effects of environmental and anthropogenic variables on each quadrat's waiting time to establishment, we performed linear mixed-effects regression models for the full transition zone and three subregions within the zone. Seasonal temperatures were found to be the primary drivers of local establishment rates. Winter temperatures had the strongest effects, especially in the northern parts of the transition zone. Furthermore, the effects of some factors on waiting times to establishment varied across subregions. Our findings contribute to identifying especially vulnerable areas to further L. dispar spread and informing region-specific criteria by invasion managers for the prioritization of areas for treatment.

Firewood Transport as a Vector of Forest Pest Dispersal in North America: A Scoping Review

Native and nonnative insects and diseases can result in detrimental impacts to trees and forests, including the loss of economic resources and ecosystem services. Increases in globalization and changing human behaviors have created new anthropogenic pathways for long distance pest dispersal. In North America, literature suggests that once a forest or tree pest is established, the movement of firewood by the general public for recreational or home heating purposes is one of the primary pathways for its dispersal. Understanding human perceptions and behaviors is essential to inform the most effective strategies for modifying firewood and pest dispersal by humans. This scoping review seeks to assess trends and gaps in the existing literature, as well as patterns in behavior related to forest pest dispersal through firewood movement in North America. We identified 76 documents that addressed this topic to which we applied inclusion and exclusion criteria to select articles for further analysis. Twenty-five articles met the inclusion criteria and were categorized based on five identified themes: 1) insect incidence in firewood, 2) insect dispersal via firewood, 3) recreational firewood movement, 4) firewood treatments, and 5) behavior and rule compliance. The selected articles show trends that suggest that firewood movement presents a risk for forest insect dispersal, but that behavior can be modified, and compliance, monitoring, and treatments should be strengthened. This scoping review found limited research about western United States, Mexico, and Canada, various insect species and other organisms, regulation and management, awareness, and behavioral dimensions of firewood movement.

Comparing generalized and customized spread models for nonnative forest pests

While generality is often desirable in ecology, customized models for individual species are thought to be more predictive by accounting for context specificity. However, fully customized models require more information for focal species. We focus on pest spread and ask: How much does predictive power differ between generalized and customized models? Further, we examine whether an intermediate "semi-generalized" model, combining elements of a general model with species-specific modifications, could yield predictive advantages. We compared predictive power of a generalized model applied to all forest pest species (the generalized dispersal kernel or GDK) to customized spread models for three invasive forest pests (beech bark disease [Cryptococcus fagisuga], gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar], and hemlock woolly adelgid [Adelges tsugae]), for which time-series data exist. We generated semi-generalized dispersal kernel models (SDK) through GDK correction factors based on additional species-specific information. We found that customized models were more predictive than the GDK by an average of 17% for the three species examined, although the GDK still had strong predictive ability (57% spatial variation explained). However, by combining the GDK with simple corrections into the SDK model, we attained a mean of 91% of the spatial variation explained, compared to 74% for the customized models. This is, to our knowledge, the first comparison of general and species-specific ecological spread models' predictive abilities. Our strong predictive results suggest that general models can be effectively synthesized with context-specific information for single species to respond quickly to invasions. We provided SDK forecasts to 2030 for all 63 United States pests in our data set.

Characterizing and Simulating the Movement of Late-Instar Gypsy Moth (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Regulatory Practices

The European gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L., is an invasive insect in North America that feeds on over 300 species of trees and shrubs and occasionally causes extensive defoliation. One regulatory practice within quarantine zones to slow the spread of this insect recommends that wood products (e.g., logs, pulpwood) originating from quarantine areas are staged within 100 foot-radius buffer zones devoid of host vegetation before transport outside the quarantine boundary. Currently, there are little data underpinning the distance used. We conducted field experiments in Wisconsin to assess buffer zone efficacy in reducing risk of larval gypsy moth encroachment on wood staging areas. We released late-instar gypsy moth larvae in groups around the perimeter of a 100-ft radius zone and tracked their movements for 10-h periods using harmonic radar and tested whether host vegetation staged around the perimeter or food availability before release altered movement patterns. Three larvae moved over 300 ft in 10 h, but 93% of larvae moved <100 ft total. The presence of host vegetation reduced the likelihood of larvae entering the buffer zone by 70%. Food availability before release did not affect movement. Using these field data, we parameterized a Monte Carlo simulation model to evaluate risk of larvae crossing zones of different sizes. For zones >100 ft in radius, <4% of larvae reached the center. This percentage decreased as zone size increased. Implications of these results for the regulatory practices of the gypsy moth quarantine are discussed.

Population spatial synchrony enhanced by periodicity and low detuning with environmental forcing

Explaining why fluctuations in abundances of spatially disjunct populations often are correlated through time is a major goal of population ecologists. We address two hypotheses receiving little to no testing in wild populations: (i) that population cycling facilitates synchronization given weak coupling among populations, and (ii) that the ability of periodic external forces to synchronize oscillating populations is a function of the mismatch in timescales (detuning) between the force and the population. Here, we apply new analytical methods to field survey data on gypsy moth outbreaks. We report that at timescales associated with gypsy moth outbreaks, spatial synchrony increased with population periodicity via phase locking. The extent to which synchrony in temperature and precipitation influenced population synchrony was associated with the degree of mismatch in dominant timescales of oscillation. Our study provides new empirical methods and rare empirical evidence that population cycling and low detuning can promote population spatial synchrony.

Iterative Models for Early Detection of Invasive Species across Spread Pathways

Species distribution models can be used to direct early detection of invasive species, if they include proxies for invasion pathways. Due to the dynamic nature of invasion, these models violate assumptions of stationarity across space and time. To compensate for issues of stationarity, we iteratively update regionalized species distribution models annually for European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar) to target early detection surveys for the USDA APHIS gypsy moth program. We defined regions based on the distances from the invasion spread front where shifts in variable importance occurred and included models for the non-quarantine portion of the state of Maine, a short-range region, an intermediate region, and a long-range region. We considered variables that represented potential gypsy moth movement pathways within each region, including transportation networks, recreational activities, urban characteristics, and household movement data originating from gypsy moth infested areas (U.S. Postal Service address forwarding data). We updated the models annually, linked the models to an early detection survey design, and validated the models for the following year using predicted risk at new positive detection locations. Human-assisted pathways data, such as address forwarding, became increasingly important predictors of gypsy moth detection in the intermediate-range geographic model as more predictor data accumulated over time (relative importance = 5.9%, 17.36%, and 35.76% for 2015, 2016, and 2018, respectively). Receiver operating curves showed increasing performance for iterative annual models (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.63, 0.76, and 0.84 for 2014, 2015, and 2016 models, respectively), and boxplots of predicted risk each year showed increasing accuracy and precision of following year positive detection locations. The inclusion of human-assisted pathway predictors combined with the strategy of iterative modeling brings significant advantages to targeting early detection of invasive species. We present the first published example of iterative species distribution modeling for invasive species in an operational context.

Managing invasive species

Invasive species pose considerable harm to native ecosystems and biodiversity and frustrate and at times fascinate the invasive species management and scientific communities. Of the numerous non-native species established around the world, only a minority of them are invasive and noxious, whereas the majority are either benign or in fact beneficial. Agriculture in North America, for example, would look dramatically different if only native plants were grown as food crops and without the services of the European honey bee as a pollinator. Yet the minority of species that are invasive negatively alter ecosystems and reduce the services they provide, costing governments, industries, and private citizens billions of dollars annually. In this review, I briefly review the consequences of invasive species and the importance of remaining vigilant in the battle against them. I then focus on their management in an increasingly connected global community.

Dispersal behavior of yellowjacket (Vespula germanica) queens

Understanding the factors that affect animal dispersal behavior is important from both fundamental and applied perspectives. Dispersal can have clear evolutionary and ecological consequences, but for nonnative insect pests, dispersal capacity can also help to explain invasion success. Vespula germanica is a social wasp that, in the last century, has successfully invaded several regions of the world, showing one of the highest spread rates reported for a nonnative insect. In contrast with nonsocial wasps, in social species, queens are responsible for population redistribution and spread, as workers are sterile. For V. germanica, it has been observed that queen flight is limited to 2 distinct periods: early autumn, when new queens leave the nest to mate and find sheltered places in which to hibernate, and spring when new colonies are founded. Our aim was to study the flight behavior of V. germanica queens by focusing on the different periods in which dispersal occurs, characterizing as well the potential contribution of queen flight (i.e., distance) to the observed geographical spread. Our results suggest that the distances flown by nonoverwintered queens is greater than that flown by overwintered individuals, suggesting that the main queen dispersal events would occur before queens enter hibernation. This could relate to a behavioral trait of the queens to avoid the inbreeding with related drones. Additionally, given the short distances flown and remarkable geographical spread observed, we provide evidence showing that queen dispersal by flight is likely to contribute proportionately less to population spread than human-aided factors.

Novel insights on population and range edge dynamics using an unparalleled spatiotemporal record of species invasion

Quantifying the complex spatial dynamics taking place at range edges is critical for understanding future distributions of species, yet very few systems have sufficient data or the spatial resolution to empirically test these dynamics. This paper reviews how data from a large-scale pest management programme have provided important contributions to the fields of population dynamics and invasion biology. The invasion of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) is well-documented from its introduction near Boston, Massachusetts USA in 1869 to its current extent of over 900,000 km² in Eastern North America. Over the past two decades, the USDA Forest Service Slow the Spread (STS) programme for managing the future spread of gypsy moth has produced unrivalled spatiotemporal data across the invasion front. The STS programme annually deploys a grid of 60,000-100,000 pheromone-baited traps, currently extending from Minnesota to North Carolina. The data from this programme have provided the foundation for investigations of complex population dynamics and the ability to examine ecological hypotheses previously untestable outside of theoretical venues, particularly regarding invasive spread and Allee effects. This system provides empirical data on the importance of long-distance dispersal and time-lags on population establishment and spatial spread. Studies showing high rates of spatiotemporal variation of the range edge, from rapid spread to border stasis and even retraction, highlight future opportunities to test mechanisms that influence both invasive and native species ranges. The STS trap data have also created a unique opportunity to study low-density population dynamics and quantify Allee effects with empirical data. Notable contributions include evidence for spatiotemporal variation in Allee effects, demonstrating empirical links between Allee effects and spatial spread, and testing mechanisms of population persistence and growth rates at range edges. There remain several outstanding questions in spatial ecology and population biology that can be tested within this system, such as the scaling of local ecological processes to large-scale dynamics across landscapes. The gypsy moth is an ideal model of how important ecological questions can be answered by thinking more broadly about monitoring data.

Back to America: tracking the origin of European introduced populations of Quercus rubra L

Quercus rubra has been introduced in Europe since the end of the 17th century. It is widely distributed today across this continent and considered invasive in some countries. Here, we investigated the distribution of genetic diversity of both native and introduced populations with the aim of tracing the origin of introduced populations. A large sampling of 883 individuals from 73 native and 38 European locations were genotyped at 69 SNPs. In the natural range, we found a continuous geographic gradient of variation with a predominant latitudinal component. We explored the existence of ancestral populations by performing Bayesian clustering analysis and found support for two or three ancestral genetic clusters. Approximate Bayesian Computations analyses based on these two or three clusters support recent extensive secondary contacts between them, suggesting that present-day continuous genetic variation resulted from recent admixture. In the introduced range, one main genetic cluster was not recovered in Europe, suggesting that source populations were preferentially located in the northern part of the natural distribution. However, our results cannot refute the introduction of populations from the southern states that did not survive in Europe.

Invasion in patchy landscapes is affected by dispersal mortality and mate-finding failure

Range expansions are a function of population growth and dispersal, and nascent populations often must overcome demographic Allee effects (positive density dependence at low population densities) driven by factors such as mate-finding failure. Given the importance of individual movement to mate finding, links between landscape structure and movement may be critical to range expansion; however, landscape effects on other factors including mortality may be equally or more important. In one of the most comprehensive investigations of the interactions of these processes to date, we combined field experiments, simulation modeling, and analysis of empirical spread patterns to investigate how landscape structure affected the spread of the gypsy moth in Virginia and West Virginia. In experiments designed to assess how landscape attributes affect mate finding, we found adult males resisted leaving forest patches and the probability of locating a pheromone source declined more rapidly over distance in non-forest matrix than in forest. We used these findings to develop individual-based simulation models of gypsy moth population dynamics and spread in complex patch-matrix landscapes. The models produced an Allee effect that strengthened with reductions in forested area, but owing more so to dispersal mortality than to effects on mate location. Predicted maximum rates of population spread grew with increases in forest area due to increasing success of long-distance transport events. Evaluations of empirical data showed relationships between spread rates and landscape structure largely consistent with model predictions. We conclude rates of spread were largely driven by long-distance dispersal events, the success of which was influenced primarily by dispersal mortality of larvae in unsuitable matrix, and that landscape effects on mate location played a secondary role. Though influences of landscape structure on mate location appear to be unimportant to the spread of the gypsy moth, we predict they would have stronger effects on more dispersive species.

Landscape-Level Patterns of Elevated FS1 Asian Allele Frequencies in Populations of Gypsy Moth (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) at a Northern U.S. Boundary

From a regulatory perspective, Asian gypsy moth is a species complex consisting of three species of Lymantria and two subspecies of Lymantria dispar (L.), differing from the European subspecies, L. dispar dispar (L.), by having consistently flight-capable females. As such, the invasion potential in North America is thought to exceed that of European gypsy moth. USDA-APHIS therefore has a monitoring program to detect Asian gypsy moth at high-risk introduction pathways. Molecular markers are used to improve the diagnosis of Asian gypsy moth. One such marker, which targets the FS1 locus, detects an allele, FS1-A, prevalent in Asian populations but occurring at low frequencies (3-6%) throughout the European gypsy moth's range in North America. However, some locales, such as Minnesota, exhibit elevated FS1-A frequencies. We studied the distribution of the FS1-A allele in northern Minnesota, 2013-2014, assessing spatial patterns in the distribution of the FS1-A allele using Moran's I and using spatial regression techniques to examine if the FS1-A allele was associated with putative movement pathways. We also used time series analysis to discern if temporal patterns in FS1-A or possible introduction events occurred. Our results indicated that FS1-A occurred randomly in space and time. We found no evidence that elevated FS1-A frequencies were associated with movement pathways or possible immigration events into this region over the two years. Elevated frequencies of the FS1-A allele within this region could be due to genetic drift and allelic surfing along the expanding population front, or to selection of physiological or behavioral traits.

From integrated pest management to integrated pest eradication: technologies and future needs

BACKGROUND

With growing globalization and trade, insect incursions are increasing worldwide. A proportion of incursions involve pests of major economic crops (e.g.Mediterranean fruit fly), conservation value (e.g. tramp ants) or health significance(e.g.mosquitoes), and maybe the targets of eradication programmes. Historically, such responses have included the use of broad spectrum insecticides. However, with increasing public awareness of the negative aspects of pesticides, new environmentally friendly and effective techniques are needed. Here, we review and evaluate a range of selective to broad-spectrum tactical options for suppression which either have, or show potential for, integration within arthropod eradication programmes.

RESULTS

Most of the available technologies have their roots in pest management, but higher efficacy is required. Further refinement may be needed for use in eradication. Integration of several tactics is usually needed, as compatible tools can be used simultaneously to target different parts of the pest life cycle. However, not all technologies are fully compatible; for example, the simultaneous use of mass trapping and the sterile insect technique (SIT) may be suboptimal, although sequential application may still be effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Broad-spectrum insecticides are generally incompatible with some biologically based technologies such as the SIT, but may be used to reduce the population so that density-dependent tactics can be used. Several novel technologies with fewer nontarget impacts have been proposed in recent years, and need to be properly evaluated for their applicability to insecteradication. Overall, there are still major gaps in surveillance and selective eradication technologies for most insects.

Geographical variation in the spatial synchrony of a forest-defoliating insect: isolation of environmental and spatial drivers

Despite the pervasiveness of spatial synchrony of population fluctuations in virtually every taxon, it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms, such as environmental perturbations and dispersal. We used multiple regression of distance matrices (MRMs) to statistically partition the importance of several factors potentially synchronizing the dynamics of the gypsy moth, an invasive species in North America, exhibiting outbreaks that are partially synchronized over long distances (approx. 900 km). The factors considered in the MRM were synchrony in weather conditions, spatial proximity and forest-type similarity. We found that the most likely driver of outbreak synchrony is synchronous precipitation. Proximity played no apparent role in influencing outbreak synchrony after accounting for precipitation, suggesting dispersal does not drive outbreak synchrony. Because a previous modelling study indicated weather might indirectly synchronize outbreaks through synchronization of oak masting and generalist predators that feed upon acorns, we also examined the influence of weather and proximity on synchrony of acorn production. As we found for outbreak synchrony, synchrony in oak masting increased with synchrony in precipitation, though it also increased with proximity. We conclude that precipitation could synchronize gypsy moth populations directly, as in a Moran effect, or indirectly, through effects on oak masting, generalist predators or diseases.