Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence

Global climate change below 2 °C avoids large end century increases in burned area in Canada

Wildfire impacts the global carbon cycle, property, harvestable timber, and public health. Canada saw a record fire season in 2023 with 14.9 Mha burned-over seven times the 1986-2022 average of 2.1 Mha. Here we utilize a new process-based wildfire module that explicitly represents fire weather, fuel type and availability, ignition sources, fire suppression, and vegetation's climate response to project the future of wildfire in Canada. Under rapid climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway [SSP] 370 & 585) simulated annual burned area in the 2090 s reaches 10.2 ± 2.1 to 11.7 ± 2.4 Mha, approaching the 2023 fire season total. However, climate change below a 2 °C global target (SSP126), keeps the 2090 s area burned near modern (2004-2014) norms. The simulated area burned and carbon emissions are most sensitive to climate drivers and lightning but future lightning activity is a key uncertainty.

Understanding the physiological and biological response to ambient heat exposure in pregnancy: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Climate change increases not only the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme heat events but also annual temperatures globally, resulting in many negative health effects, including harmful effects on pregnancy and pregnancy outcomes. As temperatures continue to increase precipitously, there is a growing need to understand the underlying biological pathways of this association. This systematic review will focus on maternal, placental and fetal changes that occur in pregnancy due to environmental heat stress exposure, in order to identify the evidence-based pathways that play a role in this association.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We will search PubMed and Ovid Embase databases from inception using tested and validated search algorithms. Inclusion of any studies that involve pregnant women and have measured environmental heat stress exposure and either maternal, placental or fetal physiological or biochemical changes and are available in English. Modelling studies or those with only animals will be excluded. The risk of bias will be assessed using the Office of Health Assessment and Translation tool. Abstract screening, data extraction and risk of bias assessment will be conducted by two independent reviewers.Environmental parameters will be reported for each study and where possible these will be combined to calculate a heat stress indicator to allow comparison of exposure between studies. A narrative synthesis will be presented following standard guidelines. Where outcome measures have at least two levels of exposure, we will conduct a dose-response meta-analysis should there be at least three studies with the same outcome. A random effects meta-analysis will be conducted where at least three studies give the same outcome.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This systematic review and meta-analysis does not require ethical approval. Dissemination will be through peer-reviewed journal publication and presentation at international conferences/interest groups.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42024511153.

Trends and drivers of Arctic-boreal fire intensity between 2003 and 2022

Climate change has disproportional effects on Arctic-boreal ecosystems, as the increase of air temperatures in these northern regions is several times higher than the global average. Ongoing warming and drying have resulted in recent record-breaking fire years in Arctic-boreal ecosystems, resulting in substantial carbon emissions that might accelerate climate change. While recent trends in Arctic-boreal burned area have been well documented, it is still unclear how fire intensity has changed. Fire intensity relates to the energy release from combustion and to a large extent drives the impact of a fire on the vegetation and soils, the emission of various gasses and the combustion completeness of different fuels. Here, we used the active fire product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to examine trends in fire radiative power (FRP) over the entire Arctic-boreal region. We found a significant increase in annual median fire intensity between 2003 and 2022 in Eurasian boreal forests, for both daytime (increase of 0.392 MW/km2 per year, R2 = 0.56, p < 0.001) and nighttime fires (increase of 0.175 MW/km2 per year, R2 = 0.47, p < 0.001), while no general trend in FRP was observed in boreal North America. This increase in FRP in Eurasian boreal forests was strongly associated with simultaneous increases in air temperature, vapour pressure deficit, fire weather and fuel availability. We estimated that for Eurasia with each degree increase in air temperature, annual median daytime FRP increases with 1.58 MW/km2 in the tundra and 0.94 MW/km2 in the taiga. Climate change has thus resulted in a widespread and clear increase in fire intensity in central and eastern Eurasia while we could not discern clear trends in Arctic-boreal North America. Arctic-boreal fire intensity may further increase with climate change, with potentially major consequences for fire regimes, carbon emissions and society.

Thawing permafrost can mitigate warming-induced drought stress in boreal forest trees

Perennially frozen soil, also known as permafrost, is important for the functioning and productivity of most of the boreal forest, the world's largest terrestrial biome. A better understanding of complex vegetation-permafrost interrelationships is needed to predict changes in local- to large-scale carbon, nutrient, and water cycle dynamics under future global warming. Here, we analyze tree-ring width and tree-ring stable isotope (C and O) measurements of Gmelin larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.) from six permafrost sites in the northern taiga of central Siberia. Our multi-parameter approach shows that changes in tree growth were predominantly controlled by the air and topsoil temperature and moisture content of the active soil and upper permafrost layers. The observed patterns range from strong growth limitations by early summer temperatures at higher elevations to significant growth controls by precipitation at warmer and well-drained lower-elevation sites. Enhanced radial tree growth is mainly found at sites with fast thawing upper mineral soil layers, and the comparison of tree-ring isotopes over five-year periods with different amounts of summer precipitation indicates that trees can prevent drought stress by accessing water from melted snow and seasonally frozen soil. Identifying the active soil and upper permafrost layers as central water resources for boreal tree growth during dry summers demonstrates the complexity of ecosystem responses to climatic changes.

Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent under climate change and can lead to thousands of excess deaths. Adaptation to extreme weather events often occurs in response to an event, with communities learning fast following unexpectedly impactful events. Using extreme value statistics, here we show where regional temperature records are statistically likely to be exceeded, and therefore communities might be more at-risk. In 31% of regions examined, the observed daily maximum temperature record is exceptional. Climate models suggest that similar behaviour can occur in any region. In some regions, such as Afghanistan and parts of Central America, this is a particular problem - not only have they the potential for far more extreme heatwaves than experienced, but their population is growing and increasingly exposed because of limited healthcare and energy resources. We urge policy makers in vulnerable regions to consider if heat action plans are sufficient for what might come.

Overstating the effects of anthropogenic climate change? A critical assessment of attribution methods in climate science

Climate scientists have proposed two methods to link extreme weather events and anthropogenic climate forcing: the probabilistic and the storyline approach. Proponents of the first approach have raised the criticism that the storyline approach could be overstating the role of anthropogenic climate change. This issue has important implications because, in certain contexts, decision-makers might seek to avoid information that overstates the effects of anthropogenic climate change. In this paper, we explore two research questions. First, whether and to what extent the storyline approach overstates the effects of anthropogenic climate change. Second, whether the objections offered against the storyline approach constitute good reasons to prefer the probabilistic approach. Concerning the first question, we show that the storyline approach does not necessarily overstate the effects of climate change, and particularly not for the reasons offered by proponents of the probabilistic approach. Concerning the second question, we show, independently, that the probabilistic approach faces the same or very similar objections to those raised against the storyline approach due to the lack of robustness of climate models and the way events are commonly defined when applying the probabilistic approach. These results suggest that these objections might not constitute good reasons to prefer the probabilistic approach over the storyline approach.

Bioclimatic atlas of the terrestrial Arctic

The Arctic is the region on Earth that is warming at the fastest rate. In addition to rising means of temperature-related variables, Arctic ecosystems are affected by increasingly frequent extreme weather events causing disturbance to Arctic ecosystems. Here, we introduce a new dataset of bioclimatic indices relevant for investigating the changes of Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. The dataset, called ARCLIM, consists of several climate and event-type indices for the northern high-latitude land areas > 45°N. The indices are calculated from the hourly ERA5-Land reanalysis data for 1950-2021 in a spatial grid of 0.1 degree (~9 km) resolution. The indices are provided in three subsets: (1) the annual values during 1950-2021; (2) the average conditions for the 1991-2020 climatology; and (3) temporal trends over 1951-2021. The 72-year time series of various climate and event-type indices draws a comprehensive picture of the occurrence and recurrence of extreme weather events and climate variability of the changing Arctic bioclimate.

Unprecedented fire activity above the Arctic Circle linked to rising temperatures

Arctic fires can release large amounts of carbon from permafrost peatlands. Satellite observations reveal that fires burned ~4.7 million hectares in 2019 and 2020, accounting for 44% of the total burned area in the Siberian Arctic for the entire 1982–2020 period. The summer of 2020 was the warmest in four decades, with fires burning an unprecedentedly large area of carbon-rich soils. We show that factors of fire associated with temperature have increased in recent decades and identified a near-exponential relationship between these factors and annual burned area. Large fires in the Arctic are likely to recur with climatic warming before mid-century, because the temperature trend is reaching a threshold in which small increases in temperature are associated with exponential increases in the area burned.

Current Siberian heating is unprecedented during the past seven millennia

The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth. Putting this rapid warming into perspective is challenging because instrumental records are often short or incomplete in polar regions and precisely-dated temperature proxies with high temporal resolution are largely lacking. Here, we provide this long-term perspective by reconstructing past summer temperature variability at Yamal Peninsula - a hotspot of recent warming - over the past 7638 years using annually resolved tree-ring records. We demonstrate that the recent anthropogenic warming interrupted a multi-millennial cooling trend. We find the industrial-era warming to be unprecedented in rate and to have elevated the summer temperature to levels above those reconstructed for the past seven millennia (in both 30-year mean and the frequency of extreme summers). This is undoubtedly of concern for the natural and human systems that are being impacted by climatic changes that lie outside the envelope of natural climatic variations for this region.

Optical Characterization of Fresh and Photochemically Aged Aerosols Emitted from Laboratory Siberian Peat Burning

Carbonaceous aerosols emitted from biomass burning influence radiative forcing and climate change. Of particular interest are emissions from high-latitude peat burning because amplified climate change makes the large carbon mass stored in these peatlands more susceptible to wildfires and their emission can affect cryosphere albedo and air quality after undergoing transport. We combusted Siberian peat in a laboratory biomass-burning facility and characterized the optical properties of freshly emitted combustion aerosols and those photochemically aged in an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) with a three-wavelength photoacoustic instrument. Total particle count increased with aging by a factor of 6 to 11 while the total particle volume either changed little (<8%) for 19 and 44 days of equivalent aging and increased by 88% for 61 days of equivalent aging. The aerosol single-scattering albedo (SSA) of both fresh and aged aerosol increased with the increasing wavelength. The largest changes in SSA due to OFR aging were observed at the shortest of the three wavelengths (i.e., at 405 nm) where SSA increased by less than ~2.4% for 19 and 44 days of aging. These changes were due to a decrease in the absorption coefficients by ~45%, with the effect on SSA somewhat reduced by a concurrent decrease in the scattering coefficients by 20 to 25%. For 61 days of aging, we observed very little change in SSA, namely an increase of 0.31% that was caused a ~56% increase in the absorption coefficients that was more than balanced by a somewhat larger (~71%) increase in the scattering coefficients. These large increases in the absorption and scattering coefficients for aging at 7 V are at least qualitatively consistent with the large increase in the particle volume (~88%). Overall, aging shifted the absorption toward longer wavelengths and decreased the absorption Ångström exponents, which ranged from ~5 to 9. Complex refractive index retrieval yielded real and imaginary parts that increased and decreased, respectively, with the increasing wavelength. The 405 nm real parts first increased and then decreased and imaginary parts decreased during aging, with little change at other wavelengths.

Fires on Ice: Emerging Permafrost Peatlands Fire Regimes in Russia’s Subarctic Taiga

Wildfires in permafrost areas, including smoldering fires (e.g., “zombie fires”), have increasingly become a concern in the Arctic and subarctic. Their detection is difficult and requires ground truthing. Local and Indigenous knowledge are becoming useful sources of information that could guide future research and wildfire management. This paper focuses on permafrost peatland fires in the Siberian subarctic taiga linked to local communities and their infrastructure. It presents the results of field studies in Evenki and old-settler communities of Tokma and Khanda in the Irkutsk region of Russia in conjunction with concurrent remote sensing data analysis. The study areas located in the discontinuous permafrost zone allow examination of the dynamics of wildfires in permafrost peatlands and adjacent forested areas. Interviews revealed an unusual prevalence and witness-observed characteristics of smoldering peatland fires over permafrost, such as longer than expected fire risk periods, impacts on community infrastructure, changes in migration of wild animals, and an increasing number of smoldering wildfires including overwintering “zombie fires” in the last five years. The analysis of concurrent satellite remote sensing data confirmed observations from communities, but demonstrated a limited capacity of satellite imagery to accurately capture changing wildfire activity in permafrost peatlands, which may have significant implications for global climate.

Contribution of Civil Protection to the Urban Economy: Evidence from a Small-Sized Greek City

Civil protection has attracted considerable attention due to its role in disaster management and preparedness, being essential in alerting the public about potential disasters and crisis recovery measures. However, there is limited research on civil protection and its vital role in urban economy recovery. Therefore, we sought to comprehensively investigate the impact of civil protection on economic growth and the development of the urban economy, focusing on a small-sized Greek city, Kozani, as a case study. We utilized data from 160 residents of Kozani. The study findings confirmed that the key focus areas of civil protection, namely, the national early warning system, crisis preparedness measures and economy rescue operations, significantly affect economic growth and development. Furthermore, the key strategies essential for improved civil protection, such as government support, positively affect economic growth.

Health Risks to the Russian Population from Temperature Extremes at the Beginning of the XXI Century

Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters caused by climatic hazards have a significant and increasing direct and indirect impact on human health. Due to its vast area, complex geographical environment and various climatic conditions, Russia is one of the countries that suffers significantly from frequent climate hazards. This paper provides information about temperature extremes in Russia in the beginning of the 21st century, and their impact on human health. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases Web of Science, Science Direct, Scopus, and e-Library, focusing on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English and in Russian from 2000 to 2021. The results are summarized in 16 studies, which are divided into location-based groups, including Moscow, Saint Petersburg and other large cities located in various climatic zones: in the Arctic, in Siberia and in the southern regions, in ultra-continental and monsoon climate. Heat waves in cities with a temperate continental climate lead to a significant increase in all-cause mortality than cold waves, compared with cities in other climatic zones. At the same time, in northern cities, in contrast to the southern regions and central Siberia, the influence of cold waves is more pronounced on mortality than heat waves. To adequately protect the population from the effects of temperature waves and to carry out preventive measures, it is necessary to know specific threshold values of air temperature in each city.