Risk assessment of UK skylark populations using life-history and individual-based landscape models

A brief review on models for birds exposed to chemicals

"A Who's Who of pesticides is therefore of concern to us all. If we are going to live so intimately with these chemicals eating and drinking them, taking them into the very marrow of our bones - we had better know something about their nature and their power."-Rachel Carson, Silent Spring. In her day, Rachel Carson was right: plant protection products (PPP), like all the other chemical substances that humans increasingly release into the environment without further precaution, are among our worst enemies today (Bruhl and Zaller, 2019; Naidu et al., 2021; Tang et al., 2021; Topping et al., 2020). All compartments of the biosphere, air, soil and water, are potential reservoirs within which all species that live there are impaired. Birds are particularly concerned: PPP are recognized as a factor in the decline of their abundance and diversity predominantly in agricultural landscapes. Due to the restrictions on vertebrates testing, in silico-based approaches are an ideal choice alternative given input data are available. This is where the problem lies as we will illustrate in this paper. We performed an extensive literature search covering a long period of time, a wide diversity of bird species, a large range of chemical substances, and as many model types as possible to encompass all our future need to improve environmental risk assessment of chemicals for birds. In the end, we show that poultry species exposed to pesticides are the most studied at the individual level with physiologically based toxicokinetic models. To go beyond, with more species, more chemical types, over several levels of biological organization, we show that observed data are crucially missing (Gilbert, 2011). As a consequence, improving existing models or developing new ones could be like climbing Everest if no additional data can be gathered, especially on chemical effects and toxicodynamic aspects.

Wildlife ecotoxicology of plant protection products: knowns and unknowns about the impacts of currently used pesticides on terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity

Agricultural practices are a major cause of the current loss of biodiversity. Among postwar agricultural intensification practices, the use of plant protection products (PPPs) might be one of the prominent drivers of the loss of wildlife diversity in agroecosystems. A collective scientific assessment was performed upon the request of the French Ministries responsible for the Environment, for Agriculture and for Research to review the impacts of PPPs on biodiversity and ecosystem services based on the scientific literature. While the effects of legacy banned PPPs on ecosystems and the underlying mechanisms are well documented, the impacts of current use pesticides (CUPs) on biodiversity have rarely been reviewed. Here, we provide an overview of the available knowledge related to the impacts of PPPs, including biopesticides, on terrestrial vertebrates (i.e. herptiles, birds including raptors, bats and small and large mammals). We focused essentially on CUPs and on endpoints at the subindividual, individual, population and community levels, which ultimately linked with effects on biodiversity. We address both direct toxic effects and indirect effects related to ecological processes and review the existing knowledge about wildlife exposure to PPPs. The effects of PPPs on ecological functions and ecosystem services are discussed, as are the aggravating or mitigating factors. Finally, a synthesis of knowns and unknowns is provided, and we identify priorities to fill gaps in knowledge and perspectives for research and wildlife conservation.

The Animal Landscape and Man Simulation System (ALMaSS): a history, design, and philosophy

This article is the first article in the new topical RIO journal collection for ALMaSS. This editorial introduces ALMaSS, its history, component parts and philosophy, and forms a first access point for those interested in knowing more. It is written from my own personal perspective as the instigator and main developer for the system, effectively as the ‘father’ of ALMaSS.

A critical review of effect modeling for ecological risk assessment of plant protection products

A wide diversity of plant protection products (PPP) is used for crop protection leading to the contamination of soil, water, and air, which can have ecotoxicological impacts on living organisms. It is inconceivable to study the effects of each compound on each species from each compartment, experimental studies being time consuming and cost prohibitive, and animal testing having to be avoided. Therefore, numerous models are developed to assess PPP ecotoxicological effects. Our objective was to provide an overview of the modeling approaches enabling the assessment of PPP effects (including biopesticides) on the biota. Six categories of models were inventoried: (Q)SAR, DR and TKTD, population, multi-species, landscape, and mixture models. They were developed for various species (terrestrial and aquatic vertebrates and invertebrates, primary producers, micro-organisms) belonging to diverse environmental compartments, to address different goals (e.g., species sensitivity or PPP bioaccumulation assessment, ecosystem services protection). Among them, mechanistic models are increasingly recognized by EFSA for PPP regulatory risk assessment but, to date, remain not considered in notified guidance documents. The strengths and limits of the reviewed models are discussed together with improvement avenues (multigenerational effects, multiple biotic and abiotic stressors). This review also underlines a lack of model testing by means of field data and of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Accurate and robust modeling of PPP effects and other stressors on living organisms, from their application in the field to their functional consequences on the ecosystems at different scales of time and space, would help going toward a more sustainable management of the environment. Graphical Abstract Combination of the keyword lists composing the first bibliographic query. Columns were joined together with the logical operator AND. All keyword lists are available in Supplementary Information at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5775038 (Larras et al. 2021).

A Simplified Population-Level Landscape Model Identifying Ecological Risk Drivers of Pesticide Applications, Part One: Case Study for Large Herbivorous Mammals

Environmental risk assessment is a key process for the authorization of pesticides, and is subjected to continuous challenges and updates. Current approaches are based on standard scenarios and independent substance-crop assessments. This arrangement does not address the complexity of agricultural ecosystems with mammals feeding on different crops. This work presents a simplified model for regulatory use addressing landscape variability, co-exposure to several pesticides, and predicting the effect on population abundance. The focus is on terrestrial vertebrates and the aim is the identification of the key risk drivers impacting on mid-term population dynamics. The model is parameterized for EU assessments according to the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Guidance Document, but can be adapted to other regulatory schemes. The conceptual approach includes two modules: (a) the species population dynamics, and (b) the population impact of pesticide exposure. Population dynamics is modelled through daily survival and seasonal reproductions rates; which are modified in case of pesticide exposure. All variables, parameters, and functions can be modified. The model has been calibrated with ecological data for wild rabbits and brown hares and tested for two herbicides, glyphosate and bromoxynil, using validated toxicity data extracted from EFSA assessments. Results demonstrate that the information available for a regulatory assessment, according to current EU information requirements, is sufficient for predicting the impact and possible consequences at population dynamic levels. The model confirms that agroecological parameters play a key role when assessing the effect of pesticide exposure on population abundance. The integration of laboratory toxicity studies with this simplified landscape model allows for the identification of conditions leading to population vulnerability or resilience. An Annex includes a detailed assessment of the model characteristics according to the EFSA scheme on Good Modelling Practice.

A systems-based approach to the environmental risk assessment of multiple stressors in honey bees

The European Parliament requested EFSA to develop a holistic risk assessment of multiple stressors in honey bees. To this end, a systems-based approach that is composed of two core components: a monitoring system and a modelling system are put forward with honey bees taken as a showcase. Key developments in the current scientific opinion (including systematic data collection from sentinel beehives and an agent-based simulation) have the potential to substantially contribute to future development of environmental risk assessments of multiple stressors at larger spatial and temporal scales. For the monitoring, sentinel hives would be placed across representative climatic zones and landscapes in the EU and connected to a platform for data storage and analysis. Data on bee health status, chemical residues and the immediate or broader landscape around the hives would be collected in a harmonised and standardised manner, and would be used to inform stakeholders, and the modelling system, ApisRAM, which simulates as accurately as possible a honey bee colony. ApisRAM would be calibrated and continuously updated with incoming monitoring data and emerging scientific knowledge from research. It will be a supportive tool for beekeeping, farming, research, risk assessment and risk management, and it will benefit the wider society. A societal outlook on the proposed approach is included and this was conducted with targeted social science research with 64 beekeepers from eight EU Member States and with members of the EU Bee Partnership. Gaps and opportunities are identified to further implement the approach. Conclusions and recommendations are made on a way forward, both for the application of the approach and its use in a broader context.

A Review of Key Features and Their Implementation in Unstructured, Structured, and Agent-Based Population Models for Ecological Risk Assessment

Population models can provide valuable tools for ecological risk assessment (ERA). A growing amount of work on model development and documentation is now available to guide modelers and risk assessors to address different ERA questions. However, there remain misconceptions about population models for ERA, and communication between regulators and modelers can still be hindered by a lack of clarity in the underlying formalism, implementation, and complexity of different model types. In particular, there is confusion about differences among types of models and the implications of including or ignoring interactions of organisms with each other and their environment. In this review, we provide an overview of the key features represented in population models of relevance for ERA, which include density dependence, spatial heterogeneity, external drivers, stochasticity, life-history traits, behavior, energetics, and how exposure and effects are integrated in the models. We differentiate 3 broadly defined population model types (unstructured, structured, and agent-based) and explain how they can represent these key features. Depending on the ERA context, some model features will be more important than others, and this can inform model type choice, how features are implemented, and possibly the collection of additional data. We show that nearly all features can be included irrespective of formalization, but some features are more or less easily incorporated in certain model types. We also analyze how the key features have been used in published population models implemented as unstructured, structured, and agent-based models. The overall aim of this review is to increase confidence and understanding by model users and evaluators when considering the potential and adequacy of population models for use in ERA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:521-540. © 2020 SETAC.

European hares do not avoid newly pesticide-sprayed fields: Overspray as unnoticed pathway of pesticide exposure

Although risk assessments for pesticides involve quantifying exposure routes for animals, little empirical evidence exists on how individuals use areas where pesticides were used. Further, the European Food Safety Authority guidelines for the risk assessment of birds and mammals currently only include direct dietary uptake from exposed plants as important pathway for pesticides, arguing that dermal exposure is generally negligible. Here, we use the European hare (Lepus europaeus) as a model of a farmland specialist to investigate if (1) hares adjust habitat use in response to pesticide spraying, using GPS data, and (2) calculate the pesticide exposure and uptake over different pathways, i.e. foraging uptake versus overspray and subsequent oral grooming, using an agent-based modelling approach. Apart from avoidance of sprayed fields on the spraying day by inactive hares, which was likely caused by the mechanical disturbance rather than the pesticide itself, we found no evidence that hares reduced the use of pesticide-sprayed fields compared to control observations where no pesticides were applied. Our simulation showed that both the proportion of exposed individuals and the pesticide uptake were related to the pathway of exposure (foraging versus overspray/oral grooming), and depended on the age class and the vegetation type. We found that pesticide uptake via overspray/oral grooming might be 7-fold higher compared to foraging and might thus be an important pathway of pesticide exposure in hares. Our findings emphasize that policy makers, specifically the European Food Safety Authority, should incorporate alternative pathways of pesticide exposure for birds and mammals, such as overspray and oral grooming, when conducting environmental risk assessments and take variation in vegetation structure and age-related animal behavior into account, because these factors might affect pesticide exposure. Interactions between pesticide application and vegetation structure may both increase or decrease exposure but can be predicted using a simulation approach.

Estimating the potential effects of pesticide seed treatments on the reproductive success of arable birds

In temperate zones, seeds of spring-sown crops may be an attractive food source for breeding farmland birds. We modelled the effects of pesticide seed treatments on the reproductive success of 4 UK arable bird species (Rook, Linnet, Skylark, Yellowhammer) exposed to treated seeds of 3 spring-sown crops (beans, barley and linseed). We ran three types of model, 1) a "broods-at-risk" model looking at the temporal overlap between nesting and seed-sowing dates, and estimating the proportion of those nests that suffered toxicity-exposure ratios < 5; 2) a "seasonal success" Markov chain model estimating the number of chicks successfully raised in the course of a breeding season.; and 3) the potential effects of pesticides on population growth rates. Based on physiology, Rooks, should be less at risk from treated seeds than smaller species because bigger birds eat less as a proportion of their bodyweights. However, in nearly all our scenarios, Rooks were more vulnerable, followed by Skylark and Linnet, with Yellowhammer being least affected. A principal cause is that Rooks are more likely to be breeding at a time when treated seeds are being sown. Furthermore, whereas the other species may make several breeding attempts and early failures from pesticide exposure may be compensated by later successes, Rooks breed only once in a season. The results are also supported by historical evidence of Rook population declines following pesticide seed treatments.

Simulation to aid in interpreting biological relevance and setting of population-level protection goals for risk assessment of pesticides

Specific protection goals (SPGs) comprise an explicit expression of the environmental components that need protection and the maximum impacts that can be tolerated. SPGs are set by risk managers and are typically based on protecting populations or functions. However, the measurable endpoints available to risk managers, at least for vertebrates, are typically laboratory tests. We demonstrate, using the example of eggshell thinning in skylarks, how simulation can be used to place laboratory endpoints in context of population-level effects as an aid to setting the SPGs. We develop explanatory scenarios investigating the impact of different assumptions of eggshell thinning on skylark population size, density and distribution in 10 Danish landscapes, chosen to represent the range of typical Danish agricultural conditions. Landscape and timing of application of the pesticide were found to be the most critical factors to consider in the impact assessment. Consequently, a regulatory scenario of monoculture spring barley with an early spray treatment eliciting the eggshell thinning effect was applied using concentrations eliciting effects of zero to 100% in steps of 5%. Setting the SPGs requires balancing scientific, social and political realities. However, the provision of clear and detailed options such as those from comprehensive simulation results can inform the decision process by improving transparency and by putting the more abstract testing data into the context of real-world impacts.

Reflections on bird and mammal risk assessment for plant protection products in the European Union: Past, present, and future

The use of plant protection products on agricultural crops can result in exposure of birds and mammals to toxic chemicals. In the European Union, the risks from such exposures are assessed under the current (2009) guidance document from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), designed to increase the realism of the theoretical risk assessments in comparison to its predecessor (SANCO/4145/2000). Since its adoption over 7 yr ago, many plant protection products have been evaluated successfully using the 2009 EFSA guidance document. However, there are still significant areas of improvement recommended for future revisions of this guidance. The present Focus article discusses experiences to date with the current scheme, including levels of conservatism in input parameters and interpretation by regulatory authorities together with proposals for how the guidance document could be improved when it is revised in the not too distant future. Several areas for which further guidance is recommended have been identified, such as the derivation of ecologically relevant bird and mammal reproductive endpoints and the use of modeling approaches to contextualize risk assessments. Areas where existing databases could be improved were also highlighted, including the collation of relevant focal species across Europe and expansion of the residue database for food items. To produce a realistic and useable guidance document in the future, it is strongly recommended that there is open and constructive communication between industry, regulatory authorities, and the EFSA. Such collaboration would also encourage harmonization between member states, thus reducing workloads for both industry and regulatory authorities. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:565-575. © 2017 SETAC.

Quantification of potential exposure of gray partridge (Perdix perdix) to pesticide active substances in farmlands

Estimating exposure of wild birds to plant protection products is of key importance in the risk assessment process evaluating their harmful potential. In this paper, we propose an ecologically-relevant methodology to estimate potential exposure to active substances (ASs) of a farmland focal bird, the gray partridge Perdix perdix. It is based on bird habitat use of fields at the time of pesticide applications. It accounts for spatio-temporal heterogeneity at population and landscape scales. We identify and quantify the potential exposure to 179 ASs of 140 clutches during pre-laying, laying, and incubation phases, and of 75 coveys. The data come from a large scale field study combining radiotelemetry and a farmer survey. They were collected in 12 different representative sites. The proportion of clutches potentially exposed to a given chemical was ≥5% for 32 ASs; prothioconazole and epoxiconazole ranking first. 71% of clutches were potentially exposed to ≥1 AS and 67% to ≥2 ASs. Mixtures involved 2 to 22 ASs. They emerged from commercial formulations, tank mixtures, bird habitat use, and combinations. ASs were fungicides (53%), herbicides (25%), and insecticides (16%) used on a variety of crops in April-June, when ground-nesting birds are breeding. The European Food Safety Authority conclusions report a long-term first-tier toxicity-to-exposure ratio (TERlt) <5 for 11 out of 19 documented ASs, and higher-tier TERlt <5 for 5 out of 10 ASs. This suggests a potential risk for bird reproduction in farmlands. Globally 13% of coveys were potentially exposed to 18 ASs during the first month (1-4 coveys per AS). The use of our field data in future research and risk assessment is discussed.

Little field evidence of direct acute and short-term effects of current pesticides on the grey partridge

Direct lethal and sublethal effects of pesticides on farmland birds' populations are recurring questions and largely debated. In this context, we conducted an innovative study combining radiotelemetry, farmer surveys, residue analyses on carcasses and modelling to assess the unintentional effects of pesticides on terrestrial birds. We chose the grey partridge Perdix perdix as a case study because this typical bird of European cereal ecosystems is highly exposed to pesticides. In this paper we focused on acute and short-term impacts of pesticides on adult mortality during spring and summer in a one-substance approach (multiple exposure were not studied here) but for a large variety of active substances (a.s.) actually used in cultivated farmland of Northern France. The fate and the location of 529 partridges were monitored twice a day from early March to late August 2010 and 2011 on 12 sites (14,500 ha). Their daily potential exposure to 183 a.s. was determined by overlapping birds' habitat use and daily pesticide application data. Based on this procedure, we calculated mortality rates within 10 days following a potential exposure for 157 different a.s.. 5 a.s. were associated with a "10-day mortality rate" higher than 10% but a single one (thiacloprid) is reported to be highly toxic to birds. We recorded 261 mortalities among which 94 carcasses were in suitable condition for residue analyses. We detected at least one a.s in 39.4% of carcasses. However, only 2 mortality cases were attributed to poisoning (carbofuran). Furthermore, modelling results showed that these lethal pesticide-related poisonings decreased the population growth rate by less than 1%. In conclusion, we did not point out important direct acute and short-term effects of pesticides currently used by farmers during the breeding season on the grey partridge. This is discussed with regards to the complexity of potential effects in operational conditions.

Population-level effects in Amphiascus tenuiremis: contrasting matrix- and individual-based population models

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is generally based on individual-level endpoints, even though protection goals in ERA intend higher biological levels. Population models have the potential to translate individual-level endpoints to population-level responses and range from simple demographic equations to highly complex individual based models (IBMs). The aims of the current study were to develop a matrix model (MM) with the structure and parameterization proposed in the draft OECD guideline "Harpacticoid copepod development and reproduction test with Amphiascus tenuiremis", and an IBM with the same data requirements. Experimental data from lindane exposure from validation studies of the OECD guideline was projected to the population level. Lindane does not only cause effects on survival and reproduction, but also on the time it takes to develop from larvae to adults. The two model approaches were contrasted in terms of their ability to properly project these effects on development. The MM projected smaller effects of the lindane treatments on population growth rate compared to the IBM since in its proposed structure, it did not include the delay in development explicitly. Population-level EC10 for population growth rate in the IBM was at the same level as the most sensitive individual-level endpoint, whereas the EC10 from the MM was not as sensitive. Based on these findings, our conclusion is that the IBM (or an improved MM) should be used for datasets including shifts in development, whereas the simpler MM is sufficient for datasets where only mortality and reproduction are affected, or as a screening tool in lower-tier population-level ERA.

Selecting surrogate endpoints for estimating pesticide effects on avian reproductive success

A Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest) has been developed for projecting the effects of a specific pesticide-use scenario on the annual reproductive success of avian species of concern. A critical element in MCnest is the use of surrogate endpoints, defined as measured endpoints from avian toxicity tests that represent specific types of effects possible in field populations at specific phases of a nesting attempt. In this article, we discuss the attributes of surrogate endpoints and provide guidance for selecting surrogates from existing avian laboratory tests as well as other possible sources. We also discuss some of the assumptions and uncertainties related to using surrogate endpoints to represent field effects. The process of explicitly considering how toxicity test results can be used to assess effects in the field helps identify uncertainties and data gaps that could be targeted in higher-tier risk assessments.

Do simple models lead to generality in ecology?

Modellers of biological, ecological, and environmental systems cannot take for granted the maxim 'simple means general means good'. We argue here that viewing simple models as the main way to achieve generality may be an obstacle to the progress of ecological research. We show how complex models can be both desirable and general, and how simple and complex models can be linked together to produce broad-scale and predictive understanding of biological systems.

Modelling Skylarks (Alauda arvensis) to predict impacts of changes in land management and policy: development and testing of an agent-based model

Agent-based simulation models provide a viable approach for developing applied models of species and systems for predictive management. However, there has been some reluctance to use these models for policy applications due to complexity and the need for improved testing and communication of the models. We present the development and testing of a comprehensive model for Skylark (Alauda arvensis) in Danish agricultural landscapes. The model is part of the ALMaSS system, which considers not only individual skylarks, but also the detailed dynamic environment from which they obtain the information necessary to simulate their behaviour. Population responses emerge from individuals interacting with each other and the environment. Model development and testing was carried out using pattern-oriented modelling. The testing procedure was based on the model's ability to represent detailed real world patterns of distribution and density, reproductive performance and seasonal changes in territory numbers. Data to support this was collected over a 13-year period and comprised detailed field observations of breeding birds and intensive surveys. The model was able to recreate the real world data patterns accurately; it was also able to simultaneously fit a number of other secondary system properties which were not formally a part of the testing procedure. The correspondence of model output to real world data and sensitivity analysis are presented and discussed, and the model's description is provided in ODdox format (a formal description inter-linked to the program code). Detailed and stringent tests for model performance were carried out, and standardised model description and open access to the source code were provided to open development of the skylark model to others. Over and above documenting the utility of the model, this open process is essential to engender the user trust and ensure continued development of these comprehensive systems for applied purposes.

Post-hoc pattern-oriented testing and tuning of an existing large model: lessons from the field vole

Pattern-oriented modeling (POM) is a general strategy for modeling complex systems. In POM, multiple patterns observed at different scales and hierarchical levels are used to optimize model structure, to test and select sub-models of key processes, and for calibration. So far, POM has been used for developing new models and for models of low to moderate complexity. It remains unclear, though, whether the basic idea of POM to utilize multiple patterns, could also be used to test and possibly develop existing and established models of high complexity. Here, we use POM to test, calibrate, and further develop an existing agent-based model of the field vole (Microtus agrestis), which was developed and tested within the ALMaSS framework. This framework is complex because it includes a high-resolution representation of the landscape and its dynamics, of the individual’s behavior, and of the interaction between landscape and individual behavior. Results of fitting to the range of patterns chosen were generally very good, but the procedure required to achieve this was long and complicated. To obtain good correspondence between model and the real world it was often necessary to model the real world environment closely. We therefore conclude that post-hoc POM is a useful and viable way to test a highly complex simulation model, but also warn against the dangers of over-fitting to real world patterns that lack details in their explanatory driving factors. To overcome some of these obstacles we suggest the adoption of open-science and open-source approaches to ecological simulation modeling.

The role of ecological models in linking ecological risk assessment to ecosystem services in agroecosystems

Agricultural practices are essential for sustaining the human population, but at the same time they can directly disrupt ecosystem functioning. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) aims to estimate possible adverse effects of human activities on ecosystems and their parts. Current ERA practices, however, incorporate very little ecology and base the risk estimates on the results of standard tests with several standard species. The main obstacles for a more ecologically relevant ERA are the lack of clear protection goals and the inherent complexity of ecosystems that is hard to approach empirically. In this paper, we argue that the ecosystem services framework offers an opportunity to define clear and ecologically relevant protection goals. At the same time, ecological models provide the tools to address ecological complexity to the degree needed to link measurement endpoints and ecosystem services, and to quantify service provision and possible adverse effects from human activities. We focus on the ecosystem services relevant for agroecosystem functioning, including pollination, biocontrol and eutrophication effects and present modeling studies relevant for quantification of each of the services. The challenges of the ecosystem services approach are discussed as well as the limitations of ecological models in the context of ERA. A broad, multi-stakeholder dialog is necessary to aid the definition of protection goals in terms of services delivered by ecosystems and their parts. The need to capture spatio-temporal dynamics and possible interactions among service providers pose challenges for ecological models as a basis for decision making. However, we argue that both fields are advancing quickly and can prove very valuable in achieving more ecologically relevant ERA.

Evaluation of alternative PCB clean-up strategies using an individual-based population model of mink

Population models can be used to place observed toxic effects into an assessment of the impacts on population-level endpoints, which are generally considered to provide greater ecological insight and relevance. We used an individual-based model of mink to evaluate the population-level effects of exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and the impact that different remediation strategies had on mink population endpoints (population size and extinction risk). Our simulations indicated that the initial population size had a strong impact on mink population dynamics. In addition, mink populations were extremely responsive to clean-up scenarios that were initiated soon after the contamination event. In fact, the rate of PCB clean-up did not have as strong a positive effect on mink as did the initiation of clean-up (start time). We show that population-level approaches can be used to understand adverse effects of contamination and to also explore the potential benefits of various remediation strategies.

An individual-based modeling approach for evaluation of endpoint sensitivity in harpacticoid copepod life-cycle tests and optimization of test design

In the present study, an individual-based model for Nitocra spinipes was developed and used to optimize the test design of a proposed Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development test guideline for harpacticoid copepods. The variability between individuals was taken into account, based on measured data, leading to stochastic model output. Virtual experiments were performed with the model to analyze the endpoint sensitivity and the effect of number of replicates and inspection intervals on statistical power. The impact of mortality was evaluated; most sublethal effects could not be determined if the mortality was ≥70%. Most sensitive to mortality was the determination of effects on brood size, for which the statistical power was reduced at 10% mortality. Our simulations show that increasing the number of replicates from 72 to 96 or 144 has little impact on the statistical power, whereas 25 replicates disallow relevant endpoint detection. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the proposed 1D inspection interval can be shifted to a 3D interval, without losing statistical power. It was demonstrated that developmental endpoints have a higher statistical power than reproductive endpoints in the current test design. The present study highlights the usefulness of individual-based models for optimizing the experimental design. The use of such models in the development of standard test guidelines will lead to a faster and less resource-demanding process.

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

BACKGROUND

Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations.

SIGNIFICANCE

There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics.

Spatially explicit analysis of metal transfer to biota: influence of soil contamination and landscape

Concepts and developments for a new field in ecotoxicology, referred to as “landscape ecotoxicology,” were proposed in the 1990s; however, to date, few studies have been developed in this emergent field. In fact, there is a strong interest in developing this area, both for renewing the concepts and tools used in ecotoxicology as well as for responding to practical issues, such as risk assessment. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial heterogeneity of metal bioaccumulation in animals in order to identify the role of spatially explicit factors, such as landscape as well as total and extractable metal concentrations in soils. Over a smelter-impacted area, we studied the accumulation of trace metals (TMs: Cd, Pb and Zn) in invertebrates (the grove snail Cepaea sp and the glass snail Oxychilus draparnaudi) and vertebrates (the bank vole Myodes glareolus and the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula). Total and CaCl₂-extractable concentrations of TMs were measured in soils from woody patches where the animals were captured. TM concentrations in animals exhibited a high spatial heterogeneity. They increased with soil pollution and were better explained by total rather than CaCl₂-extractable TM concentrations, except in Cepaea sp. TM levels in animals and their variations along the pollution gradient were modulated by the landscape, and this influence was species and metal specific. Median soil metal concentrations (predicted by universal kriging) were calculated in buffers of increasing size and were related to bioaccumulation. The spatial scale at which TM concentrations in animals and soils showed the strongest correlations varied between metals, species and landscapes. The potential underlying mechanisms of landscape influence (community functioning, behaviour, etc.) are discussed. Present results highlight the need for the further development of landscape ecotoxicology and multi-scale approaches, which would enhance our understanding of pollutant transfer and effects in ecosystems.

Potential application of population models in the European ecological risk assessment of chemicals. II. Review of models and their potential to address environmental protection aims

Whereas current chemical risk assessment (RA) schemes within the European Union (EU) focus mainly on toxicity and bioaccumulation of chemicals in individual organisms, most protection goals aim at preserving populations of nontarget organisms rather than individuals. Ecological models are tools rarely recommended in official technical documents on RA of chemicals, but are widely used by researchers to assess risks to populations, communities and ecosystems. Their great advantage is the relatively straightforward integration of the sensitivity of species to chemicals, the mode of action and fate in the environment of toxicants, life-history traits of the species of concern, and landscape features. To promote the usage of ecological models in regulatory risk assessment, this study tries to establish whether existing, published ecological modeling studies have addressed or have the potential to address the protection aims and requirements of the chemical directives of the EU. We reviewed 148 publications, and evaluated and analyzed them in a database according to defined criteria. Published models were also classified in terms of 5 areas where their application would be most useful for chemical RA. All potential application areas are well represented in the published literature. Most models were developed to estimate population-level responses on the basis of individual effects, followed by recovery process assessment, both in individuals and at the level of metapopulations. We provide case studies for each of the proposed areas of ecological model application. The lack of clarity about protection goals in legislative documents made it impossible to establish a direct link between modeling studies and protection goals. Because most of the models reviewed here were not developed for regulatory risk assessment, there is great potential and a variety of ecological models in the published literature.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations

BACKGROUND

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place.

SIGNIFICANCE

Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.

Population-level impacts of pesticide-induced chronic effects on individuals depend more on ecology than toxicology

The current method for assessing long-term risk of pesticides to mammals in the EU is based on the individual rather than the population-level and lacks ecological realism. Hence there is little possibility for regulatory authorities to increase ecological realism and understanding of risks at the population-level. Here we demonstrate how, using ABM modelling, assessments at the population-level can be obtained even for a pesticide with complex long-term effects such as epigenetic transmission of reproductive depression. By objectively fitting nonlinear models to the simulation outputs it was possible to compare population depression and recovery rates for a range of scenarios in which toxicity and exposure factors were varied. The system was differentially sensitive to the various factors, but vole ecology and behaviour were at least as important predictors of population-level effects as toxicology. This emphasises the need for greater focus on animal ecology in risk assessments.

Managing wildlife populations with uncertainty: cormorants Phalacrocorax carbo

Managing wildlife populations for conservation, control or harvesting involves uncertainty. Nevertheless, decisions need to be made based on the available evidence. The two main sources of uncertainty in population modelling are parameter estimates and structural uncertainty. Structural uncertainty in models is not included as often as parameter uncertainty.We present an approach where parameter and structural uncertainty (strength of density dependence) is included within a model, using the over-wintering English population of cormorants Phalacrocorax carbo L. Because of the damage caused to inland fishery interests by cormorants, there was a change in UK government policy in autumn 2004, increasing the numbers of birds that can be shot under licence.A stochastic Monte Carlo annual population model was produced to examine the effect of changes to the numbers of birds shot each year. Indices of annual population size were converted to population estimates and used to determine annual growth rates and strength of density dependence.There is strong evidence for density dependence in the data, which suggests the population is currently slightly above carrying capacity, with a mean growth rate of 4-6% per annum. The 1300 birds shot under licence in 2004/05 represent about 4.5% of the English population, and if this level of culling continues, the population would be expected to decline by 9% by 2007, compared to the long-term average. The a priori preferred model, which included all uncertainty, gave predictions for 2004/05 and 2005/06 in close agreement with field data.The model was used to produce short-term population projections, with the understanding that Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) will be adopted to iteratively update the parameters and model each year, feeding back into the numbers of available licences.Synthesis and applications. We recommend the approach used in this study of including parameter and structural uncertainty within a single model, where possible, with the proportion of iterations that utilize a particular structure dependent on the weight of evidence for that structure. This will produce results with wider confidence intervals, but ensures that the evidence for any particular model is not over-interpreted.

Ecotoxicity testing of chemicals with particular reference to pesticides

Ecotoxicity tests are performed on vertebrates and invertebrates for the environmental risk assessment of pesticides and other chemicals and for a variety of ecotoxicological studies in the laboratory and in the field. Existing practices and strategies in ecotoxicity testing are reviewed, including an account of current requirements of the European Commission for the testing of pesticides and the recent REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restrictions of Chemicals) proposals for industrial chemicals. Criticisms of existing practices have been made on both scientific and ethical grounds, and these are considered before dealing with the question of possible alternative methods and strategies both for environmental risk assessment and for ecotoxicological studies more generally. New approaches from an ecological point of view are compared with recent developments in laboratory-based methods such as toxicity tests, biomarker assays and bioassays. With regard to the development of new strategies for risk assessment, it is suggested that full consideration should be given to the findings of earlier long-term studies of pollution, which identified mechanisms of action by which environmental chemicals can cause natural populations to decline. Neurotoxicity and endocrine disruption are two cases in point, and biomarker assays for them could have an important role in testing new chemicals suspected of having these properties. In a concluding discussion, possible ways of improving testing protocols are discussed, having regard for current issues in the field of environmental risk assessment as exemplified by the debate over the REACH proposals. The importance of flexibility and the roles of ecologists and ecotoxicologists are stressed in the context of environmental risk assessment.

Population-level assessment of risks of pesticides to birds and mammals in the UK

It is generally acknowledged that population-level assessments provide a better measure of response to toxicants than assessments of individual-level effects. Population-level assessments generally require the use of models to integrate potentially complex data about the effects of toxicants on life-history traits, and to provide a relevant measure of ecological impact. Building on excellent earlier reviews we here briefly outline the modelling options in population-level risk assessment. Modelling is used to calculate population endpoints from available data, which is often about individual life histories, the ways that individuals interact with each other, the environment and other species, and the ways individuals are affected by pesticides. As population endpoints, we recommend the use of population abundance, population growth rate, and the chance of population persistence. We recommend two types of model: simple life-history models distinguishing two life-history stages, juveniles and adults; and spatially-explicit individual-based landscape models. Life-history models are very quick to set up and run, and they provide a great deal of insight. At the other extreme, individual-based landscape models provide the greatest verisimilitude, albeit at the cost of greatly increased complexity. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the severe problems of parameterising models.

Case Study Part 2: Probabilistic modelling of long-term effects of pesticides on individual breeding success in birds and mammals

Long term exposure of skylarks to a fictitious insecticide and of wood mice to a fictitious fungicide were modelled probabilistically in a Monte Carlo simulation. Within the same simulation the consequences of exposure to pesticides on reproductive success were modelled using the toxicity-exposure-linking rules developed by R.S. Bennet et al. (2005) and the interspecies extrapolation factors suggested by R. Luttik et al. (2005). We built models to reflect a range of scenarios and as a result were able to show how exposure to pesticide might alter the number of individuals engaged in any given phase of the breeding cycle at any given time and predict the numbers of new adults at the season's end.