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Benton TG. Academics can do more to disrupt and reframe the solution space for food system transformation. Nat Food 2023; 4:928-930. [PMID: 37880382 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-023-00876-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Tim G Benton
- Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London, UK.
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2
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Mehrabi Z, Delzeit R, Ignaciuk A, Levers C, Braich G, Bajaj K, Amo-Aidoo A, Anderson W, Balgah RA, Benton TG, Chari MM, Ellis EC, Gahi NZ, Gaupp F, Garibaldi LA, Gerber JS, Godde CM, Grass I, Heimann T, Hirons M, Hoogenboom G, Jain M, James D, Makowski D, Masamha B, Meng S, Monprapussorn S, Müller D, Nelson A, Newlands NK, Noack F, Oronje M, Raymond C, Reichstein M, Rieseberg LH, Rodriguez-Llanes JM, Rosenstock T, Rowhani P, Sarhadi A, Seppelt R, Sidhu BS, Snapp S, Soma T, Sparks AH, Teh L, Tigchelaar M, Vogel MM, West PC, Wittman H, You L. Research priorities for global food security under extreme events. One Earth 2022; 5:756-766. [PMID: 35898653 PMCID: PMC9307291 DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2021] [Revised: 02/03/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events. We asked experts for top threats to global food security from extreme events We find unresolved governance challenges underpin many of the key threats We also asked experts for top outstanding research priorities on this topic Coordination to design, adopt, and govern resilient food systems is needed
Heat waves, floods, droughts, pest outbreaks and diseases, financial crises, and human conflicts are threatening the production and supply of food around the world. These extreme events are on the rise, and our ability to prepare for them seems limited. Multiple events occurring at the same time compound the problem. Research teams and policymakers are developing solutions to improve the resilience of food systems, but this is often done in isolation—tackling one problem at a time. In this article we bring together food system experts to identify the top threats over the next two decades and priority research questions to address them. We find that unresolved governance challenges in international relations underpin many of the key threats and that coordinated research is needed to help design and adopt systems of governance for food systems that are resilient to extreme events in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zia Mehrabi
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.,Mortenson Center in Global Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | | | - Adriana Ignaciuk
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | - Christian Levers
- Department of Environmental Geography, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.,Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Ginni Braich
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Kushank Bajaj
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Araba Amo-Aidoo
- Kassel University, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Kassel University, 37213 Witzenhausen, Germany.,Kumasi Technical University, Department of Automotive and Agricultural Mechanization, P.O. Box 854, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Weston Anderson
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA.,International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Roland A Balgah
- College of Technology, The University of Bamenda, Bamenda, Cameroon.,Higher Institute of Agriculture and Rural Development, Bamenda University of Science and Technology - BUST, Bamenda, Cameroon
| | - Tim G Benton
- Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, 10 St James Sq, London SW1Y 4LE, UK
| | - Martin M Chari
- Risk & Vulnerability Science Centre, Faculty of Science & Agriculture, University of Fort Hare, Alice, South Africa
| | - Erle C Ellis
- Department of Geography & Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, 1000 Hilltop Circle, Baltimore, MD 21250, USA
| | | | - Franziska Gaupp
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Lucas A Garibaldi
- Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural, Río Negro, Argentina.,Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural, Río Negro, Argentina
| | - James S Gerber
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Cecile M Godde
- Agriculture and Food Business Unit, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
| | - Ingo Grass
- Ecology of Tropical Agricultural Systems, Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Tobias Heimann
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel, Germany
| | - Mark Hirons
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Meha Jain
- School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Dana James
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - David Makowski
- UMR MIA 518, Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, Paris, France
| | - Blessing Masamha
- Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), Africa Institute of South Africa (AISA), 134 Pretorius Street, Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa
| | - Sisi Meng
- Keough School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Sathaporn Monprapussorn
- Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Daniel Müller
- Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Andrew Nelson
- Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
| | - Nathaniel K Newlands
- Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Science and Technology Branch, Summerland Research and Development Centre, Summerland, BC, Canada
| | - Frederik Noack
- Food and Resource Economics Group, the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - MaryLucy Oronje
- Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI), 673 Canary Bird, Limuru Road, Muthaiga, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Colin Raymond
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | | | - Loren H Rieseberg
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | | | - Todd Rosenstock
- The Alliance of Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Rome, Italy
| | - Pedram Rowhani
- Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
| | - Ali Sarhadi
- Lorenz Center, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Ralf Seppelt
- Helmholtz Institute for Environmental Research (UFZ), Leipzig, Germany.,Institute of Geoscience and Geography, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Balsher S Sidhu
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Sieglinde Snapp
- Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | - Tammara Soma
- School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
| | - Adam H Sparks
- Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Perth, WA 6000, Australia.,University of Southern Queensland, Centre for Crop Health, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia
| | - Louise Teh
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | | | - Martha M Vogel
- Man and the Biosphere Programme, Division of Ecological and Earth Sciences, Natural Sciences Sector, UNESCO, Paris, France
| | - Paul C West
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA.,Project Drawdown, 3450 Sacramento Street, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Hannah Wittman
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Liangzhi You
- International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA
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Benton TG, Beddington J, Thomas SM, Flynn DJ, Fan S, Webb P. A 'net zero' equivalent target is needed to transform food systems. Nat Food 2021; 2:905-906. [PMID: 37118240 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-021-00434-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Tim G Benton
- Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London, UK.
- Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, London, UK.
| | - John Beddington
- Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, London, UK
| | - Sandy M Thomas
- Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, London, UK
- Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
| | - Derek J Flynn
- Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, London, UK
| | - Shenggen Fan
- Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, London, UK
- China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Patrick Webb
- Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, London, UK
- Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, MA, USA
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4
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Rippin HL, Cade JE, Berrang-Ford L, Benton TG, Hancock N, Greenwood DC. Variations in greenhouse gas emissions of individual diets: Associations between the greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient intake in the United Kingdom. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0259418. [PMID: 34813623 PMCID: PMC8610494 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259418] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2020] [Accepted: 10/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Food production accounts for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Less environmentally sustainable diets are also often more processed, energy-dense and nutrient-poor. To date, the environmental impact of diets have mostly been based on a limited number of broad food groups. OBJECTIVES We link GHG emissions to over 3000 foods, assessing associations between individuals' GHG emissions, their nutrient requirements and their demographic characteristics. We also identify additional information required in dietary assessment to generate more accurate environmental impact data for individual-level diets. METHODS GHG emissions of individual foods, including process stages prior to retail, were added to the UK Composition Of Foods Integrated Dataset (COFID) composition tables and linked to automated online dietary assessment for 212 adults over three 24-hour periods. Variations in GHG emissions were explored by dietary pattern, demographic characteristics and World Health Organization Recommended Nutrient Intakes (RNIs). RESULTS GHG emissions estimates were linked to 98% (n = 3233) of food items. Meat explained 32% of diet-related GHG emissions; 15% from drinks; 14% from dairy; and 8% from cakes, biscuits and confectionery. Non-vegetarian diets had GHG emissions 59% (95% CI 18%, 115%) higher than vegetarian. Men had 41% (20%, 64%) higher GHG emissions than women. Individuals meeting RNIs for saturated fats, carbohydrates and sodium had lower GHG emissions compared to those exceeding the RNI. DISCUSSION Policies encouraging sustainable diets should focus on plant-based diets. Substituting tea, coffee and alcohol with more sustainable alternatives, whilst reducing less nutritious sweet snacks, presents further opportunities. Healthier diets had lower GHG emissions, demonstrating consistency between planetary and personal health. Further detail could be gained from incorporating brand, production methods, post-retail emissions, country of origin, and additional environmental impact indicators.
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Affiliation(s)
- Holly L. Rippin
- School of Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Janet E. Cade
- School of Food Science and Nutrition, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Lea Berrang-Ford
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Tim G. Benton
- School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London, United Kingdom
| | - Neil Hancock
- School of Food Science and Nutrition, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Darren C. Greenwood
- School of Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
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5
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Fanzo J, Rudie C, Sigman I, Grinspoon S, Benton TG, Brown ME, Covic N, Fitch K, Golden CD, Grace D, Hivert MF, Huybers P, Jaacks LM, Masters WA, Nisbett N, Richardson RA, Singleton CR, Webb P, Willett WC. Sustainable food systems and nutrition in the 21st century: a report from the 22nd annual Harvard Nutrition Obesity Symposium. Am J Clin Nutr 2021; 115:18-33. [PMID: 34523669 PMCID: PMC8755053 DOI: 10.1093/ajcn/nqab315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2021] [Accepted: 09/10/2021] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Food systems are at the center of a brewing storm consisting of a rapidly changing climate, rising hunger and malnutrition, and significant social inequities. At the same time, there are vast opportunities to ensure that food systems produce healthy and safe food in equitable ways that promote environmental sustainability, especially if the world can come together at the UN Food Systems Summit in late 2021 and make strong and binding commitments toward food system transformation. The NIH-funded Nutrition Obesity Research Center at Harvard and the Harvard Medical School Division of Nutrition held their 22nd annual Harvard Nutrition Obesity Symposium entitled "Global Food Systems and Sustainable Nutrition in the 21st Century" in June 2021. This article presents a synthesis of this symposium and highlights the importance of food systems to addressing the burden of malnutrition and noncommunicable diseases, climate change, and the related economic and social inequities. Transformation of food systems is possible, and the nutrition and health communities have a significant role to play in this transformative process.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Coral Rudie
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Iman Sigman
- Metabolism Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Steven Grinspoon
- Metabolism Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tim G Benton
- Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham House, London, United Kingdom
| | - Molly E Brown
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Namukolo Covic
- International Food Policy Research Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Kathleen Fitch
- Metabolism Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Christopher D Golden
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Delia Grace
- Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Chatham Maritime, United Kingdom,Animal and Human Health, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Marie-France Hivert
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Peter Huybers
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Lindsay M Jaacks
- Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Security, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - William A Masters
- Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Nicholas Nisbett
- Health and Nutrition Cluster, Institute of Development Studies, Falmer, United Kingdom
| | | | - Chelsea R Singleton
- Department of Social, Behavioral, and Population Sciences, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Patrick Webb
- Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Walter C Willett
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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6
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Bond MN, Piertney SB, Benton TG, Cameron TC. Plasticity is a locally adapted trait with consequences for ecological dynamics in novel environments. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:10868-10879. [PMID: 34429886 PMCID: PMC8366859 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.7813] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2021] [Accepted: 05/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Phenotypic plasticity is predicted to evolve in more variable environments, conferring an advantage on individual lifetime fitness. It is less clear what the potential consequences of that plasticity will have on ecological population dynamics. Here, we use an invertebrate model system to examine the effects of environmental variation (resource availability) on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in two life history traits-age and size at maturation-in long-running, experimental density-dependent environments. Specifically, we then explore the feedback from evolution of life history plasticity to subsequent ecological dynamics in novel conditions. Plasticity in both traits initially declined in all microcosm environments, but then evolved increased plasticity for age-at-maturation, significantly so in more environmentally variable environments. We also demonstrate how plasticity affects ecological dynamics by creating founder populations of different plastic phenotypes into new microcosms that had either familiar or novel environments. Populations originating from periodically variable environments that had evolved greatest plasticity had lowest variability in population size when introduced to novel environments than those from constant or random environments. This suggests that while plasticity may be costly it can confer benefits by reducing the likelihood that offspring will experience low survival through competitive bottlenecks in variable environments. In this study, we demonstrate how plasticity evolves in response to environmental variation and can alter population dynamics-demonstrating an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in a complex animal moderated by plasticity in growth.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Tim G. Benton
- Faculty of Biological SciencesUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
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7
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Rivington M, King R, Duckett D, Iannetta P, Benton TG, Burgess PJ, Hawes C, Wellesley L, Polhill JG, Aitkenhead M, Lozada-Ellison LM, Begg G, Williams AG, Newton A, Lorenzo-Arribas A, Neilson R, Watts C, Harris J, Loades K, Stewart D, Wardell-Johnson D, Gandossi G, Udugbezi E, Hannam JA, Keay C. UK food and nutrition security during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. NUTR BULL 2021; 46:88-97. [PMID: 33821148 PMCID: PMC8014680 DOI: 10.1111/nbu.12485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2020] [Revised: 01/12/2021] [Accepted: 01/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The COVID‐19 pandemic is a major shock to society in terms of health and economy that is affecting both UK and global food and nutrition security. It is adding to the ‘perfect storm’ of threats to society from climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, at a time of considerable change, rising nationalism and breakdown in international collaboration. In the UK, the situation is further complicated due to Brexit. The UK COVID‐19Food andNutritionSecurity project, lasting one year, is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and is assessing the ongoing impact of COVID‐19 on the four pillars of food and nutrition security: access, availability, utilisation and stability. It examines the food system, how it is responding, and potential knock on effects on the UK’s food and nutrition security, both in terms of the cascading risks from the pandemic and other threats. The study provides an opportunity to place the initial lessons being learnt from the on‐going responses to the pandemic in respect of food and nutrition security in the context of other long‐term challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Rivington
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | | | - D Duckett
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | - P Iannetta
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | | | | | - C Hawes
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | | | - J G Polhill
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | | | | | - G Begg
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | | | - A Newton
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | | | - R Neilson
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | | | | | - K Loades
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | - D Stewart
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | | | - G Gandossi
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | - E Udugbezi
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | | | - C Keay
- The James Hutton Institute Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
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8
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Herrero M, Thornton PK, Mason-D'Croz D, Palmer J, Bodirsky BL, Pradhan P, Barrett CB, Benton TG, Hall A, Pikaar I, Bogard JR, Bonnett GD, Bryan BA, Campbell BM, Christensen S, Clark M, Fanzo J, Godde CM, Jarvis A, Loboguerrero AM, Mathys A, McIntyre CL, Naylor RL, Nelson R, Obersteiner M, Parodi A, Popp A, Ricketts K, Smith P, Valin H, Vermeulen SJ, Vervoort J, van Wijk M, van Zanten HH, West PC, Wood SA, Rockström J. Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e50-e62. [PMID: 33306994 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(20)30277-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2020] [Revised: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 11/18/2020] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mario Herrero
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
| | - Philip K Thornton
- CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Daniel Mason-D'Croz
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Jeda Palmer
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | | | - Prajal Pradhan
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Christopher B Barrett
- Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Tim G Benton
- The Royal Institute for International Affairs, Chatham House, London, UK
| | - Andrew Hall
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Black Mountain, ACT, Australia
| | - Ilje Pikaar
- The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
| | - Jessica R Bogard
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Graham D Bonnett
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Brett A Bryan
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, VIC, Australia
| | - Bruce M Campbell
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security and International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Valle del Cauca, Colombia; Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Svend Christensen
- Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Michael Clark
- Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jessica Fanzo
- School of Advanced International Studies, Berman Institute of Bioethics, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC, USA; Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Cecile M Godde
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Andy Jarvis
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security and International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
| | - Ana Maria Loboguerrero
- CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security and International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
| | - Alexander Mathys
- Sustainable Food Processing Laboratory, Institute of Food, Nutrition and Health, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - C Lynne McIntyre
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Rosamond L Naylor
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Rebecca Nelson
- Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Michael Obersteiner
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Alejandro Parodi
- Animal Production Systems group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Katie Ricketts
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Black Mountain, ACT, Australia
| | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Hugo Valin
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | | | - Joost Vervoort
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Mark van Wijk
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Hannah He van Zanten
- Farming Systems Ecology Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Paul C West
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Stephen A Wood
- The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA; Yale School of the Environment, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Johan Rockström
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Universität Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, Germany
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Webb P, Benton TG, Beddington J, Flynn D, Kelly NM, Thomas SM. The urgency of food system transformation is now irrefutable. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2020; 1:584-585. [PMID: 37128102 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-020-00161-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
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Pradhan P, Kriewald S, Costa L, Rybski D, Benton TG, Fischer G, Kropp JP. Urban Food Systems: How Regionalization Can Contribute to Climate Change Mitigation. Environ Sci Technol 2020; 54:10551-10560. [PMID: 32701271 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c02739] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Cities will play a key role in the grand challenge of nourishing a growing global population, because, due to their population density, they set the demand. To ensure that food systems are sustainable, as well as nourishing, one solution often suggested is to shorten their supply chains toward a regional rather than a global basis. While such regional systems may have a range of costs and benefits, we investigate the mitigation potential of regionalized urban food systems by examining the greenhouse gas emissions associated with food transport. Using data on food consumption for 7108 urban administrative units (UAUs), we simulate total transport emissions for both regionalized and globalized supply chains. In regionalized systems, the UAUs' demands are fulfilled by peripheral food production, whereas to simulate global supply chains, food demand is met from an international pool (where the origin can be any location globally). We estimate that regionalized systems could reduce current emissions from food transport. However, because longer supply chains benefit from maximizing comparative advantage, this emission reduction would require closing yield gaps, reducing food waste, shifting toward diversified farming, and consuming seasonal produce. Regionalization of food systems will be an essential component to limit global warming to well below 2 °C in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Prajal Pradhan
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Steffen Kriewald
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Luís Costa
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Diego Rybski
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Tim G Benton
- The Royal Institute for International Affairs, Chatham House, London, SW1Y 4LE, U.K
| | - Günther Fischer
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Jürgen P Kropp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
- University of Potsdam, Institute for Environmental Science and Geography, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany
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11
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Herrero M, Thornton PK, Mason-D’Croz D, Palmer J, Benton TG, Bodirsky BL, Bogard JR, Hall A, Lee B, Nyborg K, Pradhan P, Bonnett GD, Bryan BA, Campbell BM, Christensen S, Clark M, Cook MT, de Boer IJM, Downs C, Dizyee K, Folberth C, Godde CM, Gerber JS, Grundy M, Havlik P, Jarvis A, King R, Loboguerrero AM, Lopes MA, McIntyre CL, Naylor R, Navarro J, Obersteiner M, Parodi A, Peoples MB, Pikaar I, Popp A, Rockström J, Robertson MJ, Smith P, Stehfest E, Swain SM, Valin H, van Wijk M, van Zanten HHE, Vermeulen S, Vervoort J, West PC. Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2020. [DOI: 10.1038/s43016-020-0074-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 141] [Impact Index Per Article: 35.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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12
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Bradter U, O'Connell J, Kunin WE, Boffey CWH, Ellis RJ, Benton TG. Classifying grass-dominated habitats from remotely sensed data: The influence of spectral resolution, acquisition time and the vegetation classification system on accuracy and thematic resolution. Sci Total Environ 2020; 711:134584. [PMID: 31818561 PMCID: PMC7014585 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134584] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2019] [Revised: 08/04/2019] [Accepted: 09/19/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Detailed maps of vegetation facilitate spatial conservation planning. Such information can be difficult to map from remotely sensed data with the detail (thematic resolution) required for ecological applications. For grass-dominated habitats in the South-East of the UK, it was evaluated which of the following choices improved classification accuracies at various thematic resolutions: 1) Hyperspectral data versus data with a reduced spectral resolution of eight and 13 bands, which were simulated from the hyperspectral data. 2) A vegetation classification system using a detailed description of vegetation (sub)-communities (the British National Vegetation Classification, NVC) versus clustering based on the dominant plant species (Dom-Species). 3) The month of imagery acquisition. Hyperspectral data produced the highest accuracies for vegetation away from edges using the NVC (84-87%). Simulated 13-band data performed also well (83-86% accuracy). Simulated 8-band data performed poorer at finer thematic resolutions (77-78% accuracy), but produced accuracies similar to those from simulated 13-band or hyperspectral data for coarser thematic resolutions (82-86%). Grouping vegetation by NVC (84-87% accuracy for hyperspectral data) usually achieved higher accuracies compared to Dom-Species (81-84% for hyperspectral data). Highest discrimination rates were achieved around the time vegetation was fully developed. The results suggest that using a detailed description of vegetation (sub)-communities instead of one based on the dominating species can result in more accurate mapping. The NVC may reflect differences in site conditions in addition to differences in the composition of dominant species, which may benefit vegetation classification. The results also suggest that using hyperspectral data or the 13-band multispectral data can help to achieve the fine thematic resolutions that are often required in ecological applications. Accurate vegetation maps with a high thematic resolution can benefit a range of applications, such as species and habitat conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ute Bradter
- University of Leeds, School of Biology, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
| | | | | | | | | | - Tim G Benton
- University of Leeds, School of Biology, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
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13
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim G. Benton
- Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, 10 St James Square, London, SW1Y 4LE UK
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14
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Bradter U, O'Connell J, Kunin WE, Boffey CW, Ellis RJ, Benton TG. Field spectroscopy data from non-arable, grass-dominated objects in an intensively used agricultural landscape in East Anglia, UK. Data Brief 2019; 28:104888. [PMID: 31886347 PMCID: PMC6920490 DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2019.104888] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2019] [Revised: 11/18/2019] [Accepted: 11/19/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Remote sensing of vegetation provides important information for ecological applications and environmental assessments. The association between vegetation composition and structure with its spectral signal can most fully be assessed with hyperspectral data. Particularly field spectroscopy data can improve such understanding as the spectral data can be linked with the vegetation under consideration without the geographic registration uncertainties of aerial or satellite imagery. The data provided in this article contain field spectroscopy measurements from non-arable, grass-dominated objects on four farms in an intensively used agricultural landscape in the South-East of the UK. Detailed data on the plant species composition of the objects are also supplied with this article to support further analysis. Reuse potential includes linking the vegetation data with the spectral response using spectral unmixing techniques to map certain plant species or including the field spectroscopy data in a larger study with data from a wider area. This data article is related to the paper ‘Classifying grass-dominated habitats from remotely sensed data: the influence of spectral resolution, acquisition time and the vegetation classification system on accuracy and thematic resolution’ (Bradter et al., 2019) in which the ability to classify the recorded vegetation from the field spectroscopy data was analysed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ute Bradter
- University of Leeds, School of Biology, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, P.O. Box 5685 Torgard, 7485, Trondheim, Norway
- Corresponding author. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, P.O. Box 5685 Torgard, 7485, Trondheim, Norway.
| | - Jerome O'Connell
- University of Leeds, School of Biology, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
- University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, D04 N2E5, Ireland
| | | | | | | | - Tim G. Benton
- University of Leeds, School of Biology, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
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Abstract
The food system was developed around a set of policy drivers to make food cheaper and more available, these included promoting agricultural productivity and global trade to increase the availability of food. However, as has been recognised by a plethora of recent papers and reports, these factors have also led to a food system that is unsustainable through its impacts on human health (particularly the growing obesity epidemic) and the environment (e.g. as a major driver of climate change). The world is changing at an unprecedented rate, and the food system is becoming increasingly ‘just in time’, spatially extended, and dependent on more facilitating sectors (water, land, transport, finance, cyber, etc.). This produces a degree of systemic fragility that drivers (like demand) can interact with events (e.g. a climate impact) to create the opportunity for large‐scale shifts in the way the world works. Given the unsustainability of the food system, and the uncertainty of how it may evolve, scenario analysis can be a useful tool for imagining plausible futures as an aid to unlocking ‘business as unusual’ thinking. Summarising a number of recent processes, I describe scenarios of countries’ food systems shaped by changing patterns of trade and changing dietary patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim G Benton
- School of Biology University of Leeds Leeds LS2 9JT UK.,Energy, Environment and Resources Department The Royal Institute of International Affairs Chatham House, 10 St James's Square London SW1Y 4LE UK
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16
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Canales Holzeis C, Fears R, Moughan PJ, Benton TG, Hendriks SL, Clegg M, ter Meulen V, von Braun J. Food systems for delivering nutritious and sustainable diets: Perspectives from the global network of science academies. Global Food Security 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2019.05.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
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Moustakas A, Daliakopoulos IN, Benton TG. Data-driven competitive facilitative tree interactions and their implications on nature-based solutions. Sci Total Environ 2019; 651:2269-2280. [PMID: 30326457 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.349] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2018] [Revised: 09/26/2018] [Accepted: 09/27/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Spatio-temporal data are more ubiquitous and richer than even before and the availability of such data poses great challenges in data analytics. Ecological facilitation, the positive effect of density of individuals on the individual's survival across a stress gradient, is a complex phenomenon. A large number of tree individuals coupled with soil moisture, temperature, and water stress data across a long temporal period were followed. Data-driven analysis in the absence of hypothesis was performed. Information theoretic analysis of multiple statistical models was employed in order to quantify the best data-driven index of vegetation density and spatial scale of interactions. Sequentially, tree survival was quantified as a function of the size of the individual, vegetation density, and time at the optimal spatial interaction scale. Land surface temperature and soil moisture were also statistically explained by tree size, density, and time. Results indicated that in space both facilitation and competition co-exist in the same ecosystem and the sign and magnitude of this depend on the spatial scale. Overall, within the optimal data-driven spatial scale, tree survival was best explained by the interaction between density and year, sifting overall from facilitation to competition through time. However, small sized trees were always facilitated by increased densities, while large sized trees had either negative or no density effects. Tree size was more important predictor than density in survival and this has implications for nature-based solutions: maintaining large tree individuals or planting species that can become large-sized can safeguard against tree-less areas by promoting survival at long time periods through harsh environmental conditions. Large trees had also a significant effect in moderating land surface temperature and this effect was higher than the one of vegetation density on temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aristides Moustakas
- Institute for Applied Data Analytics, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Jalan Tungku Link, Gadong BE 1410, Brunei.
| | | | - Tim G Benton
- School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
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18
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KC KB, Dias GM, Veeramani A, Swanton CJ, Fraser D, Steinke D, Lee E, Wittman H, Farber JM, Dunfield K, McCann K, Anand M, Campbell M, Rooney N, Raine NE, Acker RV, Hanner R, Pascoal S, Sharif S, Benton TG, Fraser EDG. When too much isn't enough: Does current food production meet global nutritional needs? PLoS One 2018; 13:e0205683. [PMID: 30352069 PMCID: PMC6198966 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0205683] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2018] [Accepted: 09/29/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Sustainably feeding the next generation is often described as one of the most pressing “grand challenges” facing the 21st century. Generally, scholars propose addressing this problem by increasing agricultural production, investing in technology to boost yields, changing diets, or reducing food waste. In this paper, we explore whether global food production is nutritionally balanced by comparing the diet that nutritionists recommend versus global agricultural production statistics. Results show that the global agricultural system currently overproduces grains, fats, and sugars while production of fruits and vegetables and protein is not sufficient to meet the nutritional needs of the current population. Correcting this imbalance could reduce the amount of arable land used by agriculture by 51 million ha globally but would increase total land used for agriculture by 407 million ha and increase greenhouse gas emissions. For a growing population, our calculations suggest that the only way to eat a nutritionally balanced diet, save land and reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to consume and produce more fruits and vegetables as well as transition to diets higher in plant-based protein. Such a move will help protect habitats and help meet the Sustainable Development Goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Krishna Bahadur KC
- Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | - Goretty M. Dias
- School of Environment, Enterprise and Development, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada
| | - Anastasia Veeramani
- School of Environment, Enterprise and Development, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada
| | | | - David Fraser
- Faculty of Land and Food Systems, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Dirk Steinke
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Elizabeth Lee
- Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Hannah Wittman
- Centre for Sustainable Food System, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Jeffrey M. Farber
- Canadian Research Institute for Food Safety, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Kari Dunfield
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Kevin McCann
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Madhur Anand
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Malcolm Campbell
- Office of Research, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
- Department of Molecular and Cellular Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Neil Rooney
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Nigel E. Raine
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Rene Van Acker
- Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Robert Hanner
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Samantha Pascoal
- Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Shayan Sharif
- Department of Pathobiology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Tim G. Benton
- School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Evan D. G. Fraser
- Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
- Arrell Food Institute, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
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Challinor AJ, Adger WN, Benton TG, Conway D, Joshi M, Frame D. Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 2018; 376:20170301. [PMID: 29712795 PMCID: PMC5938635 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2017.0301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/19/2018] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andy J Challinor
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - W Neil Adger
- Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Rennes Drive, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
| | - Tim G Benton
- School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Declan Conway
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, UK
| | - Manoj Joshi
- Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
| | - Dave Frame
- NZ Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University, Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington 6012, New Zealand
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Gavish Y, O'Connell J, Benton TG. Quantifying and modelling decay in forecast proficiency indicates the limits of transferability in land‐cover classification. Methods Ecol Evol 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12870] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yoni Gavish
- Faculty of Biological SciencesSchool of BiologyUniversity of Leeds Leeds UK
| | - Jerome O'Connell
- School of Biosystems and Food EngineeringUniversity College Dublin Dublin Ireland
| | - Tim G. Benton
- Faculty of Biological SciencesSchool of BiologyUniversity of Leeds Leeds UK
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21
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Dainese M, Isaac NJB, Powney GD, Bommarco R, Öckinger E, Kuussaari M, Pöyry J, Benton TG, Gabriel D, Hodgson JA, Kunin WE, Lindborg R, Sait SM, Marini L. Landscape simplification weakens the association between terrestrial producer and consumer diversity in Europe. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:3040-3051. [PMID: 27992955 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2016] [Accepted: 11/30/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Land-use change is one of the primary drivers of species loss, yet little is known about its effect on other components of biodiversity that may be at risk. Here, we ask whether, and to what extent, landscape simplification, measured as the percentage of arable land in the landscape, disrupts the functional and phylogenetic association between primary producers and consumers. Across seven European regions, we inferred the potential associations (functional and phylogenetic) between host plants and butterflies in 561 seminatural grasslands. Local plant diversity showed a strong bottom-up effect on butterfly diversity in the most complex landscapes, but this effect disappeared in simple landscapes. The functional associations between plant and butterflies are, therefore, the results of processes that act not only locally but are also dependent on the surrounding landscape context. Similarly, landscape simplification reduced the phylogenetic congruence among host plants and butterflies indicating that closely related butterflies become more generalist in the resources used. These processes occurred without any detectable change in species richness of plants or butterflies along the gradient of arable land. The structural properties of ecosystems are experiencing substantial erosion, with potentially pervasive effects on ecosystem functions and future evolutionary trajectories. Loss of interacting species might trigger cascading extinction events and reduce the stability of trophic interactions, as well as influence the longer term resilience of ecosystem functions. This underscores a growing realization that species richness is a crude and insensitive metric and that both functional and phylogenetic associations, measured across multiple trophic levels, are likely to provide additional and deeper insights into the resilience of ecosystems and the functions they provide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matteo Dainese
- DAFNAE, University of Padova, Viale dell'Università 16, 35020 Legnaro, Padova, Italy
- Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Am Hubland, Würzburg, 97074, Germany
| | - Nick J B Isaac
- Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, OX10 8BB, UK
| | - Gary D Powney
- Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, OX10 8BB, UK
| | - Riccardo Bommarco
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, SE-750 07, Sweden
| | - Erik Öckinger
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, SE-750 07, Sweden
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Natural Environment Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, PO Box 140, Helsinki, FI-00251, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Natural Environment Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, PO Box 140, Helsinki, FI-00251, Finland
| | - Tim G Benton
- Faculty of Biological Sciences, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Doreen Gabriel
- Institute of Crop and Soil Science, Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI), Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants, Bundesallee 50, Braunschweig, D-38116, Germany
| | - Jenny A Hodgson
- Department of Evolution, Ecology and Behaviour, University of Liverpool, Biosciences Building, Crown Street, Liverpool, UK
| | - William E Kunin
- Faculty of Biological Sciences, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Regina Lindborg
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden
| | - Steven M Sait
- Faculty of Biological Sciences, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Lorenzo Marini
- DAFNAE, University of Padova, Viale dell'Università 16, 35020 Legnaro, Padova, Italy
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22
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Green JMH, Cranston GR, Sutherland WJ, Tranter HR, Bell SJ, Benton TG, Blixt E, Bowe C, Broadley S, Brown A, Brown C, Burns N, Butler D, Collins H, Crowley H, DeKoszmovszky J, Firbank LG, Fulford B, Gardner TA, Hails RS, Halvorson S, Jack M, Kerrison B, Koh LSC, Lang SC, McKenzie EJ, Monsivais P, O’Riordan T, Osborn J, Oswald S, Price Thomas E, Raffaelli D, Reyers B, Srai JS, Strassburg BBN, Webster D, Welters R, Whiteman G, Wilsdon J, Vira B. Research priorities for managing the impacts and dependencies of business upon food, energy, water and the environment. Sustain Sci 2016; 12:319-331. [PMID: 30174755 PMCID: PMC6106109 DOI: 10.1007/s11625-016-0402-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2015] [Accepted: 09/15/2016] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Delivering access to sufficient food, energy and water resources to ensure human wellbeing is a major concern for governments worldwide. However, it is crucial to account for the 'nexus' of interactions between these natural resources and the consequent implications for human wellbeing. The private sector has a critical role in driving positive change towards more sustainable nexus management and could reap considerable benefits from collaboration with researchers to devise solutions to some of the foremost sustainability challenges of today. Yet opportunities are missed because the private sector is rarely involved in the formulation of deliverable research priorities. We convened senior research scientists and influential business leaders to collaboratively identify the top forty questions that, if answered, would best help companies understand and manage their food-energy-water-environment nexus dependencies and impacts. Codification of the top order nexus themes highlighted research priorities around development of pragmatic yet credible tools that allow businesses to incorporate nexus interactions into their decision-making; demonstration of the business case for more sustainable nexus management; identification of the most effective levers for behaviour change; and understanding incentives or circumstances that allow individuals and businesses to take a leadership stance. Greater investment in the complex but productive relations between the private sector and research community will create deeper and more meaningful collaboration and cooperation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan M. H. Green
- Department of Geography and University of Cambridge Conservation Research Institute, Downing Site, Cambridge, CB2 3EN UK
- University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, 1 Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1QA UK
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment Building, University of York, Wentworth Way, York, YO10 5NG UK
| | - Gemma R. Cranston
- University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, 1 Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1QA UK
| | - William J. Sutherland
- Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ UK
| | - Hannah R. Tranter
- University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, 1 Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB2 1QA UK
| | - Sarah J. Bell
- Openfield, Honey Pot Lane, Colsterworth, Grantham, Lincs, NG33 5LY UK
| | - Tim G. Benton
- UK Global Food Security Programme, BBSRC, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, SN2 1UH UK
- School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT UK
| | - Eva Blixt
- Swedish Steel Association (Jernkontoret), Kungsträdgårdsgatan 10, Box 1721, 111 87 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Colm Bowe
- Environment Research Group, School of Natural Sciences and Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, Byrom Street Campus, Byrom Street, Liverpool, L3 3AF UK
| | - Sarah Broadley
- Saint Gobain Building Distribution UK, Merchant House, Binley Business Park, Binley, Coventry, CV3 2TT UK
| | - Andrew Brown
- Anglian Water, Lancaster House, Lancaster Way, Ermine Business Park, Huntingdon, PE29 6YJ UK
| | - Chris Brown
- Asda, Asda House, Southbank, Great Wilson Street, Leeds, LS11 5AD UK
| | - Neil Burns
- Mondi Group, Building 1, 1st Floor, Aviator Park, Station Road, Addlestone, KT15 2PG UK
| | - David Butler
- Centre for Water Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Harrison Building, Streatham Campus, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QF UK
| | - Hannah Collins
- Economic and Social Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, SN2 1UJ UK
| | - Helen Crowley
- Kering, 10 Avenue Hoche, 75381 Paris Cedex 08, France
| | | | - Les G. Firbank
- School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT UK
| | - Brett Fulford
- GlaxoSmithKline, 980 Great West Road, Brentford, TW8 9GS UK
| | - Toby A. Gardner
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Linnégatan 87D, Box 24218, 104 51 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Rosemary S. Hails
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, OX10 8BB UK
| | - Sharla Halvorson
- Global Headquarters, Nestlé S.A, Avenue Nestlé 55, 1800 Vevey, Switzerland
| | - Michael Jack
- HSBC Bank, 8 Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5HQ UK
| | - Ben Kerrison
- EDF Energy, Cardinal Place, 80 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 5JL UK
| | - Lenny S. C. Koh
- Advanced Resource Efficiency Centre and Management School, University of Sheffield, Conduit Road, Sheffield, S10 1FL UK
| | - Steven C. Lang
- Ernst and Young LLP, 1 More London Place, London, SE 2AF UK
| | - Emily J. McKenzie
- WWF and the Natural Capital Project, The Living Planet Centre, Rufford House, Brewery Road, Woking, Surrey, GU21 4LL UK
| | - Pablo Monsivais
- UKCRC Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Box 285, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ UK
| | - Timothy O’Riordan
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ UK
| | - Jeremy Osborn
- Ernst and Young LLP, 1 More London Place, London, SE 2AF UK
| | - Stephen Oswald
- Bidvest Fresh Limited, Cedar way, Camley Street, London, N1C 4PD UK
| | - Emma Price Thomas
- ArcelorMittal, Berkeley Square House, 7th Floor, Berkeley Square, London, W1J 6DA UK
| | - David Raffaelli
- BESS Directorate, Environment, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD UK
| | - Belinda Reyers
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, SE-106 19 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jagjit S. Srai
- Institute for Manufacturing, Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Charles Babbage Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ES UK
| | - Bernardo B. N. Strassburg
- International Institute for Sustainability & Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janerio, Estrada Dona Castorina 124, Horto, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - David Webster
- Jordans and Ryvita, Market Garden Road, Biggleswade, SG18 8QB UK
| | - Ruth Welters
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ UK
| | - Gail Whiteman
- Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4YX UK
| | - James Wilsdon
- SPRU-Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9SL UK
| | - Bhaskar Vira
- Department of Geography and University of Cambridge Conservation Research Institute, Downing Site, Cambridge, CB2 3EN UK
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Cameron TC, O'Sullivan D, Reynolds A, Hicks JP, Piertney SB, Benton TG. Harvested populations are more variable only in more variable environments. Ecol Evol 2016; 6:4179-91. [PMID: 27516873 PMCID: PMC4884197 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2016] [Accepted: 03/20/2016] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
The interaction between environmental variation and population dynamics is of major importance, particularly for managed and economically important species, and especially given contemporary changes in climate variability. Recent analyses of exploited animal populations contested whether exploitation or environmental variation has the greatest influence on the stability of population dynamics, with consequences for variation in yield and extinction risk. Theoretical studies however have shown that harvesting can increase or decrease population variability depending on environmental variation, and requested controlled empirical studies to test predictions. Here, we use an invertebrate model species in experimental microcosms to explore the interaction between selective harvesting and environmental variation in food availability in affecting the variability of stage‐structured animal populations over 20 generations. In a constant food environment, harvesting adults had negligible impact on population variability or population size, but in the variable food environments, harvesting adults increased population variability and reduced its size. The impact of harvesting on population variability differed between proportional and threshold harvesting, between randomly and periodically varying environments, and at different points of the time series. Our study suggests that predicting the responses to selective harvesting is sensitive to the demographic structures and processes that emerge in environments with different patterns of environmental variation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tom C Cameron
- School of Biological Sciences University of Essex Colchester CO43SQ UK
| | | | - Alan Reynolds
- School of Biological Sciences University of Leeds Leeds LS2 9JT UK
| | - Joseph P Hicks
- School of Biological Sciences University of Leeds Leeds LS2 9JT UK
| | - Stuart B Piertney
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
| | - Tim G Benton
- School of Biological Sciences University of Leeds Leeds LS2 9JT UK
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German RN, Thompson CE, Benton TG. Relationships among multiple aspects of agriculture's environmental impact and productivity: a meta-analysis to guide sustainable agriculture. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2016; 92:716-738. [DOI: 10.1111/brv.12251] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2015] [Revised: 12/13/2015] [Accepted: 12/15/2015] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Richard N. German
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT U.K
| | - Catherine E. Thompson
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT U.K
| | - Tim G. Benton
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT U.K
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Macfadyen S, Tylianakis JM, Letourneau DK, Benton TG, Tittonell P, Perring MP, Gómez-Creutzberg C, Báldi A, Holland JM, Broadhurst L, Okabe K, Renwick AR, Gemmill-Herren B, Smith HG. The role of food retailers in improving resilience in global food supply. Global Food Security 2015. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2016.01.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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O’Connell J, Bradter U, Benton TG. Wide-area mapping of small-scale features in agricultural landscapes using airborne remote sensing. ISPRS J Photogramm Remote Sens 2015; 109:165-177. [PMID: 26664131 PMCID: PMC4643754 DOI: 10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2015.09.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2015] [Revised: 07/25/2015] [Accepted: 09/15/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Natural and semi-natural habitats in agricultural landscapes are likely to come under increasing pressure with the global population set to exceed 9 billion by 2050. These non-cropped habitats are primarily made up of trees, hedgerows and grassy margins and their amount, quality and spatial configuration can have strong implications for the delivery and sustainability of various ecosystem services. In this study high spatial resolution (0.5 m) colour infrared aerial photography (CIR) was used in object based image analysis for the classification of non-cropped habitat in a 10,029 ha area of southeast England. Three classification scenarios were devised using 4 and 9 class scenarios. The machine learning algorithm Random Forest (RF) was used to reduce the number of variables used for each classification scenario by 25.5 % ± 2.7%. Proportion of votes from the 4 class hierarchy was made available to the 9 class scenarios and where the highest ranked variables in all cases. This approach allowed for misclassified parent objects to be correctly classified at a lower level. A single object hierarchy with 4 class proportion of votes produced the best result (kappa 0.909). Validation of the optimum training sample size in RF showed no significant difference between mean internal out-of-bag error and external validation. As an example of the utility of this data, we assessed habitat suitability for a declining farmland bird, the yellowhammer (Emberiza citronella), which requires hedgerows associated with grassy margins. We found that ∼22% of hedgerows were within 200 m of margins with an area >183.31 m2. The results from this analysis can form a key information source at the environmental and policy level in landscape optimisation for food production and ecosystem service sustainability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jerome O’Connell
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
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28
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Inclán DJ, Cerretti P, Gabriel D, Benton TG, Sait SM, Kunin WE, Gillespie MAK, Marini L. Organic farming enhances parasitoid diversity at the local and landscape scales. J Appl Ecol 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12457] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Diego J. Inclán
- DAFNAE-Entomology; University of Padova; Viale dell'Università 16 Legnaro Padova 35020 Italy
- Research Associate; Museo Ecuatoriano de Ciencias Naturales; Sección Invertebrados; Rumipamba 341 y Av. de los Shyris Quito Ecuador
| | - Pierfilippo Cerretti
- DAFNAE-Entomology; University of Padova; Viale dell'Università 16 Legnaro Padova 35020 Italy
- Department of Biology and Biotechnology ‘Charles Darwin’; Sapienza University of Rome; Piazzale A. Moro 5 Rome 00185 Italy
| | - Doreen Gabriel
- Institute of Crop and Soil Science; Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI); Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants; Bundesallee 50 Braunschweig D-38116 Germany
| | - Tim G. Benton
- School of Biology; Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
| | - Steven M. Sait
- School of Biology; Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
| | - William E. Kunin
- School of Biology; Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
| | - Mark A. K. Gillespie
- School of Biology; Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
| | - Lorenzo Marini
- DAFNAE-Entomology; University of Padova; Viale dell'Università 16 Legnaro Padova 35020 Italy
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Shackelford GE, Steward PR, German RN, Sait SM, Benton TG. Conservation planning in agricultural landscapes: hotspots of conflict between agriculture and nature. DIVERS DISTRIB 2014; 21:357-367. [PMID: 26430381 PMCID: PMC4579854 DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12291] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Aim Conservation conflict takes place where food production imposes a cost on wildlife conservation and vice versa. Where does conservation impose the maximum cost on production, by opposing the intensification and expansion of farmland? Where does conservation confer the maximum benefit on wildlife, by buffering and connecting protected areas with a habitable and permeable matrix of crop and non-crop habitat? Our aim was to map the costs and benefits of conservation versus production and thus to propose a conceptual framework for systematic conservation planning in agricultural landscapes. Location World-wide. Methods To quantify these costs and benefits, we used a geographic information system to sample the cropland of the world and map the proportion of non-crop habitat surrounding the cropland, the number of threatened vertebrates with potential to live in or move through the matrix and the yield gap of the cropland. We defined the potential for different types of conservation conflict in terms of interactions between habitat and yield (potential for expansion, intensification, both or neither). We used spatial scan statistics to find ‘hotspots’ of conservation conflict. Results All of the ‘hottest’ hotspots of conservation conflict were in sub-Saharan Africa, which could have impacts on sustainable intensification in this region. Main conclusions Systematic conservation planning could and should be used to identify hotspots of conservation conflict in agricultural landscapes, at multiple scales. The debate between ‘land sharing’ (extensive agriculture that is wildlife friendly) and ‘land sparing’ (intensive agriculture that is less wildlife friendly but also less extensive) could be resolved if sharing and sparing were used as different types of tool for resolving different types of conservation conflict (buffering and connecting protected areas by maintaining matrix quality, in different types of matrix). Therefore, both sharing and sparing should be prioritized in hotspots of conflict, in the context of countryside biogeography.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Peter R Steward
- Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Richard N German
- Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Steven M Sait
- Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Tim G Benton
- Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
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Pe'er G, Dicks LV, Visconti P, Arlettaz R, Báldi A, Benton TG, Collins S, Dieterich M, Gregory RD, Hartig F, Henle K, Hobson PR, Kleijn D, Neumann RK, Robijns T, Schmidt J, Shwartz A, Sutherland WJ, Turbé A, Wulf F, Scott AV. EU agricultural reform fails on biodiversity. Science 2014; 344:1090-2. [PMID: 24904142 DOI: 10.1126/science.1253425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 389] [Impact Index Per Article: 38.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
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31
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Evans MR, Benton TG, Grimm V, Lessells CM, O'Malley MA, Moustakas A, Weisberg M. Data availability and model complexity, generality, and utility: a reply to Lonergan. Trends Ecol Evol 2014; 29:302-3. [PMID: 24709222 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2014.03.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2014] [Accepted: 03/12/2014] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Matthew R Evans
- School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK.
| | - Tim G Benton
- Institute of Integrative and Comparative Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Volker Grimm
- Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Catherine M Lessells
- Nederlands Institut voor Ecologie, PO Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Maureen A O'Malley
- Department of Philosophy, School of Philosophical and Historical Inquiry, Quadrangle A14, University of Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Aristides Moustakas
- School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK
| | - Michael Weisberg
- Department of Philosophy, University of Pennsylvania, 433 Cohen Hall, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA
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32
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Steward PR, Shackelford G, Carvalheiro LG, Benton TG, Garibaldi LA, Sait SM. Pollination and biological control research: are we neglecting two billion smallholders. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2014. [DOI: 10.1186/2048-7010-3-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Dunn JC, Goodman SJ, Benton TG, Hamer KC. Active blood parasite infection is not limited to the breeding season in a declining farmland bird. J Parasitol 2014; 100:260-6. [PMID: 24450288 DOI: 10.1645/13-256.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Avian blood parasites can have significant impacts on adult breeding birds but studies of parasitism outside the breeding season are rare, despite their potentially important implications for host-parasite dynamics. Here we investigate temporal dynamics of blood parasite infection in adult yellowhammers Emberiza citrinella . We screened blood samples collected between December and April of 2 consecutive winters using PCR. We found a high prevalence of both Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites, with a mean prevalence of 50% across 2 winters. Prevalence of both parasites was higher during the second, colder winter of the study. Temporal trends differed between the 2 genera, suggesting that chronic Haemoproteus infections gradually disappear throughout the winter but that Leucocytozoon infections exhibit a relapse during late winter, possibly coincident with reduced food availability. Our results highlight the difference in temporal dynamics between 2 blood parasite genera infecting the same host population and emphasize the need for accurate assessment of infection status at appropriate time periods when examining impacts of, and associations with, blood parasite infection. We suggest that further research should investigate the implications of over-winter infection for birds' physiology, behavior, and survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jenny C Dunn
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, RSPB, The Lodge, Potton Road, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL, U.K
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Evans MR, Bithell M, Cornell SJ, Dall SRX, Díaz S, Emmott S, Ernande B, Grimm V, Hodgson DJ, Lewis SL, Mace GM, Morecroft M, Moustakas A, Murphy E, Newbold T, Norris KJ, Petchey O, Smith M, Travis JMJ, Benton TG. Predictive systems ecology. Proc Biol Sci 2013; 280:20131452. [PMID: 24089332 PMCID: PMC3790477 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 99] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew R Evans
- School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, , Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, , Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK, Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, , Liverpool L69 7ZB, UK, Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, , Cornwall Campus TR10 9EZ, UK, Instituto Multidisciplinario de BiologíaVegetal (CONICET-UNC) and FCEFyN, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, , Casilla de Correo 495, Córdoba 5000, Argentina, Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, , 21 Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2FB, UK, IFREMER, Laboratorie Ressources Halieutiques, 150 quai Gambetta, BP 699, Boulogne-sur-Mer 62321, France, Helmhotz Center for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling, Permoserstrasse 15, Leipzig 04318, Germany, Earth and Biosphere Institute, University of Leeds, , Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, , Darwin Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK, Natural England, , Cromwell House, Andover Road, Winchester SO23 7BT, UK, British Antarctic Survey, Madingley Road, High Cross, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK, United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK, Centre for Agri-Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, The University of Reading, , Earley Gate, PO Box 237, Reading RG6 6AR, UK, Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, , Winterhurerstrasse 190, Zurich 8057, Switzerland, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK, School of Biology, University of Leeds, , Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
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Cameron TC, O'Sullivan D, Reynolds A, Piertney SB, Benton TG. Corrigendum to Cameron et al. 2013. Ecol Lett 2013. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Tom C. Cameron
- Ecology & Evolution research group; Institute of Integrative & Comparative Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Science; Umeå University; SE- 901 87 Umeå Sweden
| | - Daniel O'Sullivan
- Ecology & Evolution research group; Institute of Integrative & Comparative Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
| | - Alan Reynolds
- Ecology & Evolution research group; Institute of Integrative & Comparative Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
| | - Stuart B. Piertney
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences; University of Aberdeen; Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK
| | - Tim G. Benton
- Ecology & Evolution research group; Institute of Integrative & Comparative Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
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Dunn JC, Goodman SJ, Benton TG, Hamer KC. Avian blood parasite infection during the non-breeding season: an overlooked issue in declining populations? BMC Ecol 2013; 13:30. [PMID: 24011390 PMCID: PMC3848531 DOI: 10.1186/1472-6785-13-30] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2013] [Accepted: 08/09/2013] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Pathogens and parasites can have major impacts on host population dynamics, both through direct mortality and via indirect effects. Both types of effect may be stronger in species whose populations are already under pressure. We investigated the potential for blood parasites to impact upon their hosts at the immunological, physiological and population level during the non-breeding season using a declining population of yellowhammers Emberiza citrinella as a model. Results Yellowhammers infected by Haemoproteus spp. showed both a reduced heterophil to lymphocyte (H:L) ratio, and an elevated standardised white blood cell (WBC) count compared to uninfected birds, indicating an immunological response to infection. Infected birds had shorter wings during the first winter of sampling but not during the second, colder, winter; survival analysis of 321 birds sampled across four winters indicated that increased wing length conferred a survival advantage. Conclusions We suggest that the potential impacts of blood parasite infections on over-wintering birds may have been underestimated. Further research should consider the potential impacts of sub-clinical parasite infections on the dynamics of vulnerable populations, and we suggest using declining populations as model systems within which to investigate these relationships as well as examining interactions between sub-clinical disease and other environmental stressors. JEL Code Q5
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Affiliation(s)
- Jenny C Dunn
- School of Biology, Irene Manton Building, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
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38
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Ingram JSI, Wright HL, Foster L, Aldred T, Barling D, Benton TG, Berryman PM, Bestwick CS, Bows-Larkin A, Brocklehurst TF, Buttriss J, Casey J, Collins H, Crossley DS, Dolan CS, Dowler E, Edwards R, Finney KJ, Fitzpatrick JL, Fowler M, Garrett DA, Godfrey JE, Godley A, Griffiths W, Houlston EJ, Kaiser MJ, Kennard R, Knox JW, Kuyk A, Linter BR, Macdiarmid JI, Martindale W, Mathers JC, McGonigle DF, Mead A, Millar SJ, Miller A, Murray C, Norton IT, Parry S, Pollicino M, Quested TE, Tassou S, Terry LA, Tiffin R, van de Graaf P, Vorley W, Westby A, Sutherland WJ. Priority research questions for the UK food system. Food Secur 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/s12571-013-0294-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
The rise of food security up international political, societal and academic agendas has led to increasing interest in novel means of improving primary food production and reducing waste. There are however, also many ‘post-farm gate’ activities that are critical to food security, including processing, packaging, distributing, retailing, cooking and consuming. These activities all affect a range of important food security elements, notably availability, affordability and other aspects of access, nutrition and safety. Addressing the challenge of universal food security, in the context of a number of other policy goals (e.g. social, economic and environmental sustainability), is of keen interest to a range of UK stakeholders but requires an up-to-date evidence base and continuous innovation. An exercise was therefore conducted, under the auspices of the UK Global Food Security Programme, to identify priority research questions with a focus on the UK food system (though the outcomes may be broadly applicable to other developed nations). Emphasis was placed on incorporating a wide range of perspectives (‘world views’) from different stakeholder groups: policy, private sector, non-governmental organisations, advocacy groups and academia. A total of 456 individuals submitted 820 questions from which 100 were selected by a process of online voting and a three-stage workshop voting exercise. These 100 final questions were sorted into 10 themes and the ‘top’ question for each theme identified by a further voting exercise. This step also allowed four different stakeholder groups to select the top 7–8 questions from their perspectives. Results of these voting exercises are presented. It is clear from the wide range of questions prioritised in this exercise that the different stakeholder groups identified specific research needs on a range of post-farm gate activities and food security outcomes. Evidence needs related to food affordability, nutrition and food safety (all key elements of food security) featured highly in the exercise. While there were some questions relating to climate impacts on production, other important topics for food security (e.g. trade, transport, preference and cultural needs) were not viewed as strongly by the participants.
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Garnett T, Appleby MC, Balmford A, Bateman IJ, Benton TG, Bloomer P, Burlingame B, Dawkins M, Dolan L, Fraser D, Herrero M, Hoffmann I, Smith P, Thornton PK, Toulmin C, Vermeulen SJ, Godfray HCJ. Agriculture. Sustainable intensification in agriculture: premises and policies. Science 2013; 341:33-4. [PMID: 23828927 DOI: 10.1126/science.1234485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 399] [Impact Index Per Article: 36.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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Evans MR, Grimm V, Johst K, Knuuttila T, de Langhe R, Lessells CM, Merz M, O'Malley MA, Orzack SH, Weisberg M, Wilkinson DJ, Wolkenhauer O, Benton TG. Do simple models lead to generality in ecology? Trends Ecol Evol 2013; 28:578-83. [PMID: 23827437 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 127] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/26/2012] [Revised: 05/26/2013] [Accepted: 05/31/2013] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Modellers of biological, ecological, and environmental systems cannot take for granted the maxim 'simple means general means good'. We argue here that viewing simple models as the main way to achieve generality may be an obstacle to the progress of ecological research. We show how complex models can be both desirable and general, and how simple and complex models can be linked together to produce broad-scale and predictive understanding of biological systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew R Evans
- School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary, University of London, Mile End Road, London, E1 4NS, UK.
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Shackelford G, Steward PR, Benton TG, Kunin WE, Potts SG, Biesmeijer JC, Sait SM. Comparison of pollinators and natural enemies: a meta-analysis of landscape and local effects on abundance and richness in crops. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2013; 88:1002-21. [DOI: 10.1111/brv.12040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 165] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2012] [Revised: 03/13/2013] [Accepted: 03/14/2013] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Gorm Shackelford
- Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT U.K
| | - Peter R. Steward
- Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT U.K
| | - Tim G. Benton
- Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT U.K
| | - William E. Kunin
- Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT U.K
| | - Simon G. Potts
- Centre for Agri-Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development; University of Reading; Reading RG6 6AR U.K
| | - Jacobus C. Biesmeijer
- Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT U.K
- Netherlands Centre for Biodiversity; NCB-Naturalis; NL-2300 RA Leiden The Netherlands
| | - Steven M. Sait
- Faculty of Biological Sciences; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT U.K
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Cameron TC, O'Sullivan D, Reynolds A, Piertney SB, Benton TG. Eco-evolutionary dynamics in response to selection on life-history. Ecol Lett 2013; 16:754-63. [PMID: 23565666 PMCID: PMC3712461 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2012] [Revised: 10/03/2012] [Accepted: 02/22/2013] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Understanding the consequences of environmental change on ecological and evolutionary dynamics is inherently problematic because of the complex interplay between them. Using invertebrates in microcosms, we characterise phenotypic, population and evolutionary dynamics before, during and after exposure to a novel environment and harvesting over 20 generations. We demonstrate an evolved change in life-history traits (the age- and size-at-maturity, and survival to maturity) in response to selection caused by environmental change (wild to laboratory) and to harvesting (juvenile or adult). Life-history evolution, which drives changes in population growth rate and thus population dynamics, includes an increase in age-to-maturity of 76% (from 12.5 to 22 days) in the unharvested populations as they adapt to the new environment. Evolutionary responses to harvesting are outweighed by the response to environmental change (∼ 1.4 vs. 4% change in age-at-maturity per generation). The adaptive response to environmental change converts a negative population growth trajectory into a positive one: an example of evolutionary rescue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tom C Cameron
- Ecology & Evolution research group, Institute of Integrative & Comparative Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Calvin Dytham
- Department of Biology; University of York; York; YO10 5DD; UK
| | - Tim G. Benton
- Institute of Integrative and Comparative Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds; LS2 9JT; UK
| | - Justin M. J. Travis
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences; University of Aberdeen; Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue; Aberdeen; AB24 2TZ; UK
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Affiliation(s)
- Doreen Gabriel
- School of Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
- Institute for Crop and Soil Science; Julius Kühn-Institute - Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants; Bundesallee 50 D-38116 Braunschweig Germany
- Institute of Biodiversity; Thünen Institute - Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Fisheries and Forestry; Bundesallee 50 D-38116 Braunschweig Germany
| | - Steven M. Sait
- School of Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
| | | | - Tim G. Benton
- School of Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds LS2 9JT UK
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Bradter U, Kunin WE, Altringham JD, Thom TJ, Benton TG. Identifying appropriate spatial scales of predictors in species distribution models with the random forest algorithm. Methods Ecol Evol 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.2041-210x.2012.00253.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 78] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ute Bradter
- School of Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds; LS2 9JT; UK
| | | | | | - Tim J. Thom
- Yorkshire Dales National Park Authority; Grassington; BD23 5LB; UK
| | - Tim G. Benton
- School of Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds; LS2 9JT; UK
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Abstract
The world is experiencing significant, largely anthropogenically induced, environmental change. This will impact on the biological world and we need to be able to forecast its effects. In order to produce such forecasts, ecology needs to become more predictive--to develop the ability to understand how ecological systems will behave in future, changed, conditions. Further development of process-based models is required to allow such predictions to be made. Critical to the development of such models will be achieving a balance between the brute-force approach that naively attempts to include everything, and over simplification that throws out important heterogeneities at various levels. Central to this will be the recognition that individuals are the elementary particles of all ecological systems. As such it will be necessary to understand the effect of evolution on ecological systems, particularly when exposed to environmental change. However, insights from evolutionary biology will help the development of models even when data may be sparse. Process-based models are more common, and are used for forecasting, in other disciplines, e.g. climatology and molecular systems biology. Tools and techniques developed in these endeavours can be appropriated into ecological modelling, but it will also be necessary to develop the science of ecoinformatics along with approaches specific to ecological problems. The impetus for this effort should come from the demand coming from society to understand the effects of environmental change on the world and what might be performed to mitigate or adapt to them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew R Evans
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, School of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9EZ, UK.
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Ozgul A, Coulson T, Reynolds A, Cameron TC, Benton TG. Population responses to perturbations: the importance of trait-based analysis illustrated through a microcosm experiment. Am Nat 2012; 179:582-94. [PMID: 22504541 DOI: 10.1086/664999] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Environmental change continually perturbs populations from a stable state, leading to transient dynamics that can last multiple generations. Several long-term studies have reported changes in trait distributions along with demographic response to environmental change. Here we conducted an experimental study on soil mites and investigated the interaction between demography and an individual trait over a period of nonstationary dynamics. By following individual fates and body sizes at each life-history stage, we investigated how body size and population density influenced demographic rates. By comparing the ability of two alternative approaches, a matrix projection model and an integral projection model, we investigated whether consideration of trait-based demography enhances our ability to predict transient dynamics. By utilizing a prospective perturbation analysis, we addressed which stage-specific demographic or trait-transition rate had the greatest influence on population dynamics. Both body size and population density had important effects on most rates; however, these effects differed substantially among life-history stages. Considering the observed trait-demography relationships resulted in better predictions of a population's response to perturbations, which highlights the role of phenotypic plasticity in transient dynamics. Although the perturbation analyses provided comparable predictions of stage-specific elasticities between the matrix and integral projection models, the order of importance of the life-history stages differed between the two analyses. In conclusion, we demonstrate how a trait-based demographic approach provides further insight into transient population dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arpat Ozgul
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, United Kingdom.
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Abstract
The mapping of environment, through variation in individuals' life histories, to dynamics can be complex and often poorly known. Consequently, it is not clear how important it is dynamically. To explore this, I incorporated lessons from an empirical system, a soil mite, into an individual-based model. Individuals compete for resource and allocate this according to eight 'genetic' rules that specify investment in growth or reserves (which influences survival or fecundity), size at maturation and reproductive allocation. Density dependence, therefore, emerges from competition for food, limiting individual's growth and fecundity. We use this model to examine the role that genetic and phenotypically plastic variation plays in dynamics, by fixing phenotypes, by allowing phenotypes to vary plastically and by creating genetic variation between individuals. Variation, and how it arises, influences short- and long-run dynamics in a way comparable in magnitude with halving food supply. In particular, by switching variation on and off, it is possible to identify a range of processes necessary to capture the dynamics of the 'full model'. Exercises like this can help identify key processes and parameters, but a concerted effort is needed across many different systems to search for shared understanding of both process and modelling.
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Affiliation(s)
- T G Benton
- Institute of Integrative and Comparative Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
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Bonte D, Van Dyck H, Bullock JM, Coulon A, Delgado M, Gibbs M, Lehouck V, Matthysen E, Mustin K, Saastamoinen M, Schtickzelle N, Stevens VM, Vandewoestijne S, Baguette M, Barton K, Benton TG, Chaput-Bardy A, Clobert J, Dytham C, Hovestadt T, Meier CM, Palmer SCF, Turlure C, Travis JMJ. Costs of dispersal. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2011; 87:290-312. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-185x.2011.00201.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 840] [Impact Index Per Article: 64.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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50
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Bradter U, Thom TJ, Altringham JD, Kunin WE, Benton TG. Prediction of National Vegetation Classification communities in the British uplands using environmental data at multiple spatial scales, aerial images and the classifier random forest. J Appl Ecol 2011. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02010.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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