Successful application of wastewater-based epidemiology in prediction and monitoring of the second wave of COVID-19 with fragmented sewerage systems-a case study of Jaipur (India)

Population infection estimation from wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Nagpur, India during the second pandemic wave

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as an effective environmental surveillance tool for predicting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease outbreaks in high-income countries (HICs) with centralized sewage infrastructure. However, few studies have applied WBE alongside epidemic disease modelling to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in low-resource settings. This study aimed to explore the feasibility of collecting untreated wastewater samples from rural and urban catchment areas of Nagpur district, to detect and quantify SARS-CoV-2 using real-time qPCR, to compare geographic differences in viral loads, and to integrate the wastewater data into a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Confirmed Positives-Recovered (SEIPR) model. Of the 983 wastewater samples analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, we detected significantly higher sample positivity rates, 43.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 40.1, 47.4) and 30.4% (95% CI 24.66, 36.66), and higher viral loads for the urban compared with rural samples, respectively. The Basic reproductive number, R0, positively correlated with population density and negatively correlated with humidity, a proxy for rainfall and dilution of waste in the sewers. The SEIPR model estimated the rate of unreported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the start of the wave as 13.97 [95% CI (10.17, 17.0)] times that of confirmed cases, representing a material difference in cases and healthcare resource burden. Wastewater surveillance might prove to be a more reliable way to prepare for surges in COVID-19 cases during future waves for authorities.

Cross-continental comparative experiences of wastewater surveillance and a vision for the 21st century

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the epidemiological value of monitoring wastewater into sharp focus. The challenges of implementing and optimising wastewater monitoring vary significantly from one region to another, often due to the array of different wastewater systems around the globe, as well as the availability of resources to undertake the required analyses (e.g. laboratory infrastructure and expertise). Here we reflect on the local and shared challenges of implementing a SARS-CoV-2 monitoring programme in two geographically and socio-economically distinct regions, São Paulo state (Brazil) and Wales (UK), focusing on design, laboratory methods and data analysis, and identifying potential guiding principles for wastewater surveillance fit for the 21st century. Our results highlight the historical nature of region-specific challenges to the implementation of wastewater surveillance, including previous experience of using wastewater surveillance, stakeholders involved, and nature of wastewater infrastructure. Building on those challenges, we then highlight what an ideal programme would look like if restrictions such as resource were not a constraint. Finally, we demonstrate the value of bringing multidisciplinary skills and international networks together for effective wastewater surveillance.

Meta-analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate in municipal wastewater

The aim of this study is to conduct a systematic analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 levels in urban sewage and evaluate the associated positivity rates, thereby developing comprehensive insights into the epidemic situation and providing valuable inputs for the development of effective disease prevention and control strategies. The PubMed, Scopus, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Database, and VIP databases were systematically searched based on the predefined retrieval strategy. The literature published up to February 2023 was meticulously screened according to the predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria, and the relevant data were extracted for subsequent integration. The quality assessment of the included studies adhered to the rigorous Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Statement guidelines. The meta-analysis was conducted using Stata 17.0 software. The meta-analysis included a total of 34 studies, encompassing 8429 municipal wastewater samples. A random effects model was employed for the analysis, revealing an overall SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate of 53.7% in the municipal wastewater samples. The subgroup analyses demonstrated significant regional variations in the SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate in municipal wastewater, with Africa exhibiting the highest rate at 62.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 47.4 ~ 76.0%) and Oceania displaying the lowest at 33.3% (95% CI 22.0 ~ 46.3%). However, the subgroup analyses based on the sampling site, strain prevalence period, and laboratory testing method did not yield any statistically significant differences. The SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate in wastewater is relatively high globally, although it exhibits regional disparities. Regions with larger populations and lower economic levels demonstrate higher viral detection rates in sewage. Different types of wastewater sampling sites can be employed to monitor distinct aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Continuous surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater plays a pivotal role in complementing clinical data, helping to track outbreak progression across diverse regions.

A snapshot of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA throughout wastewater treatment plants in Arkansas

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can spread the viral RNA in wastewater by the feces of those experience COVID-19 symptoms. While wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in the raw sewage has been confirmed as an effective tool to predict COVID-19 infection, the goal of this study is to assess the presence of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA throughout various wastewater treatment processes. Wastewater samples were collected from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the state of Arkansas from August 2020 to June 2021 and measured for the relative concentration of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA using RT-qPCR. The gene concentrations in the raw wastewater measured in this study were similar to other published studies, targeting the N1 and N2 genes of the virus. The viral RNA concentration was measured after each wastewater treatment step within WWTPs, including primary sedimentation, activated sludge, filtration and disinfection. Results show the most viral RNA removal occurred in the secondary treatment (activated sludge). The viral RNA was only occasionally detected after disinfection (chlorination or UV disinfection). Overall, WWTPs can remove the SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA at an average of 98.7%, while complete removal was achieved on 82% of the sampling days. Further investigation is required to ensure complete viral RNA removal from wastewater such as improving existing treatment process or supplementing with additional treatment steps. PRACTITIONER POINTS: The viral RNA of SARS-CoV-2 was detected in Arkansas wastewater treatment plants. SARS-CoV-2 was rarely detected in treated effluent from wastewater treatment plants. Activated sludge was effective removing SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA from wastewater. This study was limited by the direct RNA extraction from wastewater, which lowered the sensitivity of detection.

COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths predicted by SARS-CoV-2 levels in Boise, Idaho wastewater

The viral load of COVID-19 in untreated wastewater from Idaho's capital city Boise, ID (Ada County) has been used to predict changes in hospital admissions (statewide in Idaho) and deaths (Ada County) using distributed fixed lag modeling and artificial neural networks (ANN). The wastewater viral counts were used to determine the lag time between peaks in wastewater viral counts and COVID-19 hospitalizations as well as deaths (14 and 23 days, respectively). Quantitative measurement of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts in the untreated wastewater was determined three times a week using RT-qPCR over a span of 13 months. To mitigate the effects of PCR inhibitors in wastewater, a series of dilution tests were conducted, and the 1/4 dilution was used to generate the most successful model. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts and hospitalization from June 7, 2021 to December 29, 2021 were used as training data to predict hospitalizations; and wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts and deaths from June 7, 2021 to December 20, 2021 were used as training data to predict deaths. These training data were used to make predictive ANN models for future hospitalizations and deaths. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of prediction of deaths from COVID-19 based on wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts using machine learning-based multilayered ANN. The applied modeling demonstrates that wastewater surveillance data can be combined with hospitalizations and death data to generate machine learning-based ANN models that predict future COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths, providing an early warning for medical response teams and healthcare policymakers.

Effectiveness of environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 as an early-warning system: Update of a systematic review during the second year of the pandemic

The aim of this updated systematic review was to offer an overview of the effectiveness of environmental surveillance (ES) of SARS-CoV-2 as a potential early-warning system (EWS) for COVID-19 and new variants of concerns (VOCs) during the second year of the pandemic. An updated literature search was conducted to evaluate the added value of ES of SARS-CoV-2 for public health decisions. The search for studies published between June 2021 and July 2022 resulted in 1,588 publications, identifying 331 articles for full-text screening. A total of 151 publications met our inclusion criteria for the assessment of the effectiveness of ES as an EWS and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We identified a further 30 publications among the grey literature. ES confirms its usefulness as an EWS for detecting new waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection with an average lead time of 1-2 weeks for most of the publication. ES could function as an EWS for new VOCs in areas with no registered cases or limited clinical capacity. Challenges in data harmonization and variant detection require standardized approaches and innovations for improved public health decision-making. ES confirms its potential to support public health decision-making and resource allocation in future outbreaks.

RNA-Seq of untreated wastewater to assess COVID-19 and emerging and endemic viruses for public health surveillance

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic showcased the power of genomic sequencing to tackle the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. However, metagenomic sequencing of total microbial RNAs in wastewater has the potential to assess multiple infectious diseases simultaneously and has yet to be explored.

Methods

A retrospective RNA-Seq epidemiological survey of 140 untreated composite wastewater samples was performed across urban (n = 112) and rural (n = 28) areas of Nagpur, Central India. Composite wastewater samples were prepared by pooling 422 individual grab samples collected prospectively from sewer lines of urban municipality zones and open drains of rural areas from 3rd February to 3rd April 2021, during the second COVID-19 wave in India. Samples were pre-processed and total RNA was extracted prior to genomic sequencing.

Findings

This is the first study that has utilised culture and/or probe-independent unbiased RNA-Seq to examine Indian wastewater samples. Our findings reveal the detection of zoonotic viruses including chikungunya, Jingmen tick and rabies viruses, which have not previously been reported in wastewater. SARS-CoV-2 was detectable in 83 locations (59%), with stark abundance variations observed between sampling sites. Hepatitis C virus was the most frequently detected infectious virus, identified in 113 locations and co-occurring 77 times with SARS-CoV-2; and both were more abundantly detected in rural areas than urban zones. Concurrent identification of segmented virus genomic fragments of influenza A virus, norovirus, and rotavirus was observed. Geographical differences were also observed for astrovirus, saffold virus, husavirus, and aichi virus that were more prevalent in urban samples, while the zoonotic viruses chikungunya and rabies, were more abundant in rural environments.

Interpretation

RNA-Seq can effectively detect multiple infectious diseases simultaneously, facilitating geographical and epidemiological surveys of endemic viruses that could help direct healthcare interventions against emergent and pre-existent infectious diseases as well as cost-effectively and qualitatively characterising the health status of the population over time.

Funding

UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) grant number H54810, as supported by Research England.

Moving forward with COVID-19: Future research prospects of wastewater-based epidemiology methodologies and applications

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been demonstrated for its great potential in tracking of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission among populations despite some inherent methodological limitations. These include non-optimized sampling approaches and analytical methods; stability of viruses in sewer systems; partitioning/retention in biofilms; and the singular and inaccurate back-calculation step to predict the number of infected individuals in the community. Future research is expected to (1) standardize best practices in wastewater sampling, analysis and data reporting protocols for the sensitive and reproducible detection of viruses in wastewater; (2) understand the in-sewer viral stability and partitioning under the impacts of dynamic wastewater flow, properties, chemicals, biofilms and sediments; and (3) achieve smart wastewater surveillance with artificial intelligence and big data models. Further specific research is essential in the monitoring of other viral pathogens with pandemic potential and subcatchment applications to maximize the benefits of WBE beyond COVID-19.

COVID-19 surveillance in wastewater: An epidemiological tool for the monitoring of SARS-CoV-2

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has prompted a lot of questions globally regarding the range of information about the virus's possible routes of transmission, diagnostics, and therapeutic tools. Worldwide studies have pointed out the importance of monitoring and early surveillance techniques based on the identification of viral RNA in wastewater. These studies indicated the presence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in human feces, which is shed via excreta including mucus, feces, saliva, and sputum. Subsequently, they get dumped into wastewater, and their presence in wastewater provides a possibility of using it as a tool to help prevent and eradicate the virus. Its monitoring is still done in many regions worldwide and serves as an early "warning signal"; however, a lot of limitations of wastewater surveillance have also been identified.