Changes in Family Size Intentions Across Young Adulthood: A Life-Course Perspective

Explaining uncertainty in women's fertility preferences

People's fertility preferences are often considered an important determinant of fertility. What is often neglected in studies of preferred fertility, is the uncertainty that people may have about their preferences. In this study, using data on Dutch women through the Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences (collected early 2018), we examined women's fertility preferences and asked detailed questions about the certainty of these preferences. We also examined whether women agreed with their partner on preferred family size, and to what extent partner (dis)agreement shaped uncertainty. We show that Dutch women expressed much uncertainty about their fertility preferences, with only one-third feeling strongly about their preferences. Uncertainty strongly increased when women preferred higher numbers of children, whereas already having children reduced it. Women who wanted no children were most certain about their preference. Higher preferred family sizes also led to more disagreement with the partner about these preferences, and greater partner disagreement, in turn, led to more uncertainty. These findings imply that people are more likely to downgrade their fertility preferences than to increase them, as women are more certain about their preferences for lower numbers of children and are more open to family sizes below than above their preferred choice. Partner disagreement is often resolved by not having (more) children, lowering realised fertility. Hence, these findings provide another explanation for why many people have fewer children than desired.

Religiosity and trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions - Evidence from a German panel study

Much of the literature on fertility intentions has shown that they are broadly predictive of fertility behaviour. Fertility intentions tend to change over a person's life. How religiosity affects these changes over time has rarely been the subject of investigation. In this paper, we focus on whether and how religiosity affects trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions. Specifically, we examine whether highly religious people start with higher fertility intentions and are more likely to sustain them during their life course compared to their less religious counterparts. We apply random and fixed effects growth curve models to data from the German family panel pairfam, using a sample of 6214 women and 5802 men aged 14-46. We find that religiosity mainly contributes to explain the starting level at teenage years but not the trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions as people get older. Highly religious people start with higher intentions than less religious people. However, similarly to less religious people they experience a decline in their fertility intentions with age. This study demonstrates that religiosity is an important variable in research on fertility intentions but with changing relevance over the life course.

The Influence of Partnership Status on Fertility Intentions of Childless Women and Men Across European Countries

The absence of a suitable partner is the most frequently given reason for unmet fertility intentions across European countries while having a partner is positively associated with the intention to have a child. However, once this relationship is framed within a life-course approach, existing evidence is mixed and inconclusive. The norm to have children within a stable relationship and norms regarding the timing of childbirth are acknowledged in many contemporary societies. Therefore, the presence of a partner might have a stronger effect on fertility intentions around the social deadline for fertility, which could explain the mixed findings in previous research. This article analyses how fertility intentions are influenced by partnership status and how this relationship varies by age and across countries. We use data from the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey to analyse a sample of childless men and women aged 18-45 years from 12 European countries. We implement logistic regression models to investigate the influence of having a partner on fertility intentions during the life course. Previous studies found that the positive influence of having a partner either decreases across the life course or does not vary significantly. This study reveals that the positive association between partnership and fertility intentions increases from the age of 18, proving that whether someone is in a partnership becomes more influential at later stages in life. After a certain age threshold, which varies across countries and gender, this positive association either turns insignificant, remains positive, or reverses.

Discussing the possibility of fertility treatment being unsuccessful as part of routine care offered at clinics: patients' experiences, willingness, and preferences

STUDY QUESTION

Are patients willing to discuss the possibility of treatment being unsuccessful as part of routine care offered at clinics, and what are the factors associated with this willingness?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Nine in every 10 patients are willing to discuss this possibility as part of routine care, with willingness being associated with higher perceived benefits, lower barriers, and stronger positive attitudes towards it.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Fifty-eight percent of patients who complete up to three cycles of IVF/ICSI in the UK do not achieve a live birth. Offering psychosocial care for unsuccessful fertility treatment (PCUFT), defined as assistance and guidance on the implications of treatment being unsuccessful, could reduce the psychosocial distress patients experience when it happens, and promote positive adjustment to this loss. Research shows 56% of patients are willing to plan for an unsuccessful cycle, but little is known about their willingness and preferences towards discussing the possibility of definitive unsuccessful treatment.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

The study was of cross-sectional design, comprising a theoretically driven and patient-centred bilingual (English, Portuguese) mixed-methods online survey. The survey was disseminated via social media (April 2021-January 2022). Eligibility criteria included being aged 18 or older, waiting to or undergoing an IVF/ICSI cycle, or having completed a cycle within the previous 6 months without achieving a pregnancy. Out of 651 people accessing the survey, 451 (69.3%) consented to participate. From these, 100 did not complete 50% of the survey questions, nine did not report on the primary outcome variable (willingness), and 342 completed the survey (completion rate 75.8%, 338 women).

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The survey was informed by the Health Belief Model (HBM) and Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Quantitative questions covered sociodemographic characteristics and treatment history. Quantitative and qualitative questions gathered data on past experiences, willingness, and preferences (with whom, what, how and when) to receive PCUFT, as well as theory-informed factors hypothesized to be associated with patients' willingness to receive it. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used on quantitative data about PCUFT experiences, willingness, and preferences, and thematic analysis was applied to textual data. Two logistic regressions were used to investigate the factors associated with patients' willingness.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Participants were, on average, 36 years old and most resided in Portugal (59.9%) and the UK (38.0%). The majority (97.1%) were in a relationship for around 10 years, and 86.3% were childless. Participants were undergoing treatment for, on average, 2 years [SD = 2.11, range: 0-12 years], with most (71.8%) having completed at least one IVF/ICSI cycle in the past, almost all (93.5%) without success. Around one-third (34.9%) reported having received PCUFT. Thematic analysis showed participants received it mainly from their consultant. The main topic discussed was patients' low prognosis, with the emphasis being put on achieving a positive outcome. Almost all participants (93.3%) would like to receive PCUFT. Reported preferences indicated that 78.6% wanted to receive it from a psychologist/psychiatrist/counsellor, mostly in case of a bad prognosis (79.4%), emotional distress (73.5%), or difficulties in accepting the possibility of treatment being unsuccessful (71.2%). The preferred time to receive PCUFT was before initiating the first cycle (73.3%), while the preferred format was in an individual (mean = 6.37, SD = 1.17; in 1-7 scale) or couple (mean = 6.34, SD = 1.24; in 1-7 scale) session. Thematic analysis showed participants would like PCUFT to provide an overview of treatment and all possible outcomes tailored to each patient's circumstances and to encompass psychosocial support, mainly focused on coping strategies to process loss and sustain hope towards the future. Willingness to receive PCUFT was associated with higher perceived benefit of building psychosocial resources and coping strategies (odds ratios (ORs) 3.40, 95% CI 1.23-9.38), lower perceived barrier of triggering negative emotions (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.24-0.98), and stronger positive attitudes about PCUFT being beneficial and useful (OR 3.32, 95% CI 2.12-5.20).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Self-selected sample, mainly composed of female patients who had not yet achieved their parenthood goals. The small number of participants unwilling to receive PCUFT reduced statistical power. The primary outcome variable was intentions, and research shows a moderate association between intentions and actual behaviour.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Fertility clinics should provide patients with early opportunities to discuss the possibility of their treatment being unsuccessful as part of routine care. PCUFT should focus on minimizing suffering associated with grief and loss by reassuring patients they can cope with any treatment outcome, promoting coping resources, and signposting to additional support.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

M.S.-L. holds a doctoral fellowship from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P. [Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia] (FCT; SFRH/BD/144429/2019). R.C. holds a post-doctoral fellowship supported by the European Social Fund (ESF) and FCT (SFRH/BPD/117597/2016). The EPIUnit, ITR and CIPsi (PSI/01662) are also financed by FCT through the Portuguese State Budget, in the scope of the projects UIDB/04750/2020, LA/P/0064/2020 and UIDB/PSI/01662/2020, respectively. Dr Gameiro reports consultancy fees from TMRW Life Sciences and Ferring Pharmaceuticals A/S, speaker fees from Access Fertility, SONA-Pharm LLC, Meridiano Congress International and Gedeon Richter, grants from Merck Serono Ltd, an affiliate of Merck KgaA, Darmstadt, Germany.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Stability and Relevance of Marriage Desires: Importance of Age Norms and Partnering Opportunities

Objective

This study investigates shifts in marriage desires during singlehood and the potential consequences associated with these shifts in Japan, a country epitomizing later and less marriage without substantial increases in nonmarital childbearing.

Background

Despite researchers' long-standing interest in values potentially motivating demographic changes, few have systematically examined marriage desires among unmarried adults. Even fewer have considered how marriage desires may change during adulthood and how relevant such changes are to marriage and family behavior.

Method

The analysis uses 11 waves of the Japan Life Course Panel Survey, which tracks singles' marriage desires yearly. Fixed effects models are estimated to demonstrate factors associated with within-person changes and account for unobserved heterogeneity.

Results

Japanese singles' marriage desires decline with age but are stronger when they perceive greater opportunities to form romantic relationships or marriage. Singles experiencing an increase in the desire to marry are more likely to take actions to seek partners and to enter a romantic relationship or marriage subsequently. The associations between marriage desires and the various behavioral changes strengthen with age and feasibility of marriage. Increases in marriage desires also correspond to increases in single men's parenthood desires and ideal numbers of children, and the link between marriage desires and fertility preferences is stronger as they age.

Conclusion

Marriage desires are not always stable or equally relevant throughout singlehood. Our study suggests that age norms and partnering opportunities both contribute to the fluctuation of marriage desires and affect when such desires would have behavioral implications.

Fertility Intentions and Sexual Orientation: Evidence from the 2020 Youth Survey in Estonia

Attitudes towards sexual minorities have undergone a transformation in Western countries recently. This has led to an increase in research into the experiences of sexual minorities in a variety of life domains. Although parenthood is a valued life goal only a few small-scale studies have looked into the parenthood goals of individuals in relation to their sexual orientation. The aims of this study are to analyse the diversity of sexual orientation, the factors associated with it and the relationship to fertility intentions among adolescents aged 16 to 19. The study draws on a nationally representative youth survey conducted in 2020 in Estonia (N = 1624), and employs descriptive methods and logistic and linear regression models. The results show that adolescents in Estonia exhibit considerable diversity of sexual orientation, with one-fifth reporting some degree of attraction to their own sex. The minority sexual orientation is more frequent among groups which can be regarded as more open or exposed to new behaviours, but is also associated with a disadvantaged family background. The results reveal a clear negative association between the intended number of children and the minority sexual orientation, which is not explained by other available variables.

Measuring Fertility Intentions During Times of Crisis: An Example Using Survey Data Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic

Fertility intentions-intentions regarding whether and when to have children-predict reproductive health outcomes. Measuring fertility intentions is difficult, particularly during macrostructural shocks, for at least two reasons: (1) fertility intentions may be especially volatile during periods of uncertainty and (2) macrostructural shocks may constrain data collection. We propose a set of indicators that capture how a macrostructural shock directly alters fertility intentions, with a particular focus on the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. We advance the conceptualization and construct of fertility intentions measures in three ways. First, we demonstrate the value of direct questions about whether women attributed changes in fertility intentions to the pandemic. Second, we highlight the importance of a typology that delineates fertility postponement, advancement, foregoing, and indecision. Third, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating a granular time window within a two-year period to capture short-term changes to fertility intentions. We exemplify the value of our proposed measures using survey data from a probabilistic sample of women aged 18-34 in Pernambuco, Brazil. We discuss the self-reported change in intentions due to Covid in wave 1 as well as panel change across waves. We further ground our contributions by uncovering important variations by social origin and parity.

Social norms and fertility intentions: Evidence from China

China’s low fertility rates are a major concern across all sectors of society. Fertility is a major issue related to economy, society and family development. Based on social norms theory, this paper explores the influence of social norms on individuals’ fertility intentions from two perspectives: spatial proximity and social proximity. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies, we found that individual’s fertility intentions were influenced by social norms; both neighborhood social norms and group social norms had significant effects. The role of social norms in shaping individual fertility intentions varied by gender, hukou, and life course; specifically, men, rural residents, and married individuals were more significantly influenced by social norms. This study improves the theoretical framework of fertility decision making by arguing that in addition to macro and individual factors, social norms have a very important influence on fertility intentions. Our findings suggest that reshaping social norms regarding fertility is essential to enhance fertility rates in China.

The role of motherhood schemas and life transitions in reproductive intention formation

OBJECTIVE

This study provides a theory-based snapshot of the processes involved in women's fertility intention formation and decisions regarding the timing of motherhood.

BACKGROUND

The trend to defer childbearing is linked with both empowering and challenging outcomes for women. The cognitive-social (C-S) model suggests that deliberative thinking regarding reproduction occurs following fertility-relevant life transitions, which results in fluctuations in motherhood schemas and fertility intentions. This framework was applied to explore fertility intention formation.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with twelve women who either had children or desired children.

RESULTS

Two overarching themes central to the C-S model are discussed: (a) passive expectations and (b) deliberative intentions. Women's motherhood schemas were often underpinned by schematic structures (e.g. group norms and scripts) and material structures (e.g. observational influences). Life transitions and personal experiences tended to prompt deliberative thinking about motherhood plans.

CONCLUSION

The results were generally consistent with the C-S model, but highlight complexities to consider when investigating fertility expectations and intentions.

Fitness Costs of Insecure Romantic Attachment: The Role of Reproductive Motivation and Long-Term Mating

Attachment styles are frequently viewed from within the evolutionary conceptual framework; however, their associations with evolutionary fitness are very rarely empirically explored. In the present research (N = 448), we analyzed the relations between romantic attachment (anxiety and avoidance) and various fitness indicators in Serbian adults: matting patterns (short and long-term mating), reproductive motivation, reproductive success (age of first birth, number of children, and grandchildren), and kin care (care for biological relatives in general and care for children). Congruent negative associations between insecure styles and fitness outcomes were found: this is particularly true for avoidance, which is negatively related to long-term mating, reproductive motivation, number of children, and kin care. Furthermore, the data showed that reproductive motivation and long-term mating may mediate the links between avoidance and the number of children. Anxiety was negatively related to reproductive motivation and the number of children; this attachment style was also negatively associated with care for children, but only in males. The present data suggest that secure romantic bonding may be evolutionary adaptive; the obtained results contradict some evolutionary theories that assume that insecure attachment has some adaptive benefits as well. Findings provide new insights into the role of romantic attachment in the behavioral ecology of pair bonding.

Types of reproductive orientations of modern students

The aim of the study is to analyze the socio-demographic and activity-motivational factors that determine the type of youth reproductive orientations. The object of the study is students of Vavilov Saratov State Agrarian University. Formation of the target sample is due to the need to consider the reproductive orientations of young people in conjunction with the desire to live and work in rural areas. The information base of the study is the results of a sociological study conducted by the Institute of Agrarian Problems RAS (216 respondents). The work shows that the cause of the formation of narrowed reproductive orientations is the shift of the value of family and children to the last places in the system of life priorities of this group of young people who prefer to focus on development of individual human capital and self-realization in profession. They are convinced that children are associated with a great responsibility and restriction of freedom, so any measures to increase the birth rate are of little interest to them. Young people with extended reproductive orientations are characterized by child-centric attitudes, with a high value of family lifestyles and traditional gender stereotypes. Most of them associate effectiveness of measures to increase the birth rate with economic instruments and development of a social infrastructure for maternity and child support. It has been found out that the selected typological groups of reproductive orientations of today's youth are characterized by different potential for future reproductive behavior, which leads to differentiation of tools to increase the birth rate for these groups of young people.

Feasibility and acceptability of psychosocial care for unsuccessful fertility treatment

INTRODUCTION

Many people undergo fertility treatment to have biological children, but around four in ten patients complete all treatment cycles without having the children they desire. This triggers intense grief from which patients report taking on average 2 years to recover. Fertility guidelines and regulators stress the need to support patients through this process, but there is a scarcity of evaluated interventions to this end and evidence about when and how to offer care is lacking. This study explored patients' and healthcare professionals' (HCPs) experiences of and views about provision of psychosocial care (to patients facing unsuccessful fertility treatment, i.e., care provided by a mental health professional to address the emotional, cognitive, behavioural, relational and social needs that patients have at this stage of treatment).

METHODS

Five qualitative online focus groups were conducted with Portuguese participants: three with patients waiting to initiate or undergoing their last cycle of in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection or having completed it within the last 2 months without achieving a pregnancy and two with HCPs working at fertility clinics. Focus groups were recorded and transcribed verbatim, and data were analysed with Framework Analysis.

RESULTS

Thirteen patients and nine HCPs participated. Analysis resulted in 1293 codes, systematically organized into 13 categories, 4 themes and 1 metatheme. The latter showed high consensus about the need for psychosocial care for unsuccessful treatment, but perceived challenges in its implementation. Themes reflected (1) consensual demand for psychosocial care at all stages of treatment but particularly at the end, (2) high perceived acceptability of integrating preventive care initiated during treatment with early psychosocial care only for those patients who experience unsuccessful treatment, (3) perceived challenges of implementing psychosocial care for unsuccessful treatment at clinics and (4) suggestions to promote its acceptability and feasibility.

CONCLUSION

Patients and HCPs perceive that clinics should improve care provision across the whole treatment pathway and in particular for unsuccessful fertility treatment. Suggestions were made to inform future research focusing on the development and evaluation of psychosocial interventions to this end.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

Patients and HCPs participated in the focus groups. Two HCPs also revised the manuscript.

The Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Fertility Intentions of Women with Childbearing Age in China

On 31 May 2021, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed the policy that a couple can have three children, and rolled out more supportive measures to further optimize the fertility policies. However, while the Chinese government is further optimizing its fertility policy, the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 is raging around the world, which threatens the implementation of China's fertility optimization policy. Based on this, this paper firstly explores the impact of COVID-19 on women's fertility intentions. Secondly, based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, this paper constructs a structural equation model to quantitatively reveal the specific factors that affect women's fertility intentions under the epidemic, as well as their impact paths, and then puts forward corresponding suggestions for the government to solve the problem of fertility, aiming at delaying population aging and optimizing population structure. The research results show that: (1) COVID-19 lowers the fertility intentions of women of childbearing age. (2) During the pandemic, economic pressure emerged as the biggest factor affecting women's fertility intentions. The decline in income caused by the pandemic has become an important factor in preventing women from having children. (3) The conflict between work and childbearing is still an important factor affecting the fertility intentions of women of childbearing age. The government's provision of perfect childcare services and their strengthening of the protection of women's employment rights and interests will greatly reduce women's anxiety about childbearing.

Late fertility intentions increase over time in Austria, but chances to have a child at later ages remain low

Childbearing takes place at increasingly older ages, and fertility is continuing to decrease across female birth cohorts. This study investigated whether the proportion of women who unintentionally forwent childbearing increased over time, and linked this to the age profile of fertility intentions and realization among men and women. This study was based on the Austrian Micro-Censuses (1986-2016) and on the Austrian Generations and Gender Surveys (panel data 2008/09 and 2012/13). Across the birth cohorts 1950-1979, an increasing proportion of women wanted to have children after 40 years of age, but more women failed to meet their fertility intentions expressed at 34-36 years of age. At the individual level, from 30 years of age, more than one-third of women and men with a strong fertility intention were found to persist with this intention within four years even at less fertile ages. In addition, women and men with a strong fertility intention became less likely to have a child with age: <10% of women and approximately 20% of men who had expressed a certain and short-term intention to have a child at 39-41 years of age in 2008/09 had a child by 2012/13. In particular, childless women and men, and those with only one child, persisted in certain and short-term positive intentions from 30 years of age, but parity was not a significant factor in their realization. The sharp increase in 'unrealized fertility' over time draws attention to the importance that personal circumstances and context encountered at older ages may have for fertility, and augurs a continued increase in the use of assisted reproduction.

Is Leave for Fathers Pronatalist? A Mixed-Methods Study of the Impact of Fathers’ Uptake of Parental Leave on Couples’ Childbearing Intentions in South Korea

While many countries with low birth rates have implemented policies incentivizing fathers to take parental leave with the anticipation that it will contribute to raising birth rates, there is scant research empirically testing whether fathers’ uptake of leave is pronatalist. Existing research is limited to a few European (mostly Nordic) countries, and it is unclear whether there exists a positive causal relationship. Using mixed methods, this paper seeks to explore the processes and mechanisms by which fathers’ uptake of parental leave impacts intentions for additional children in South Korea, a country characterized by lowest-low fertility and low but rapidly expanding uptake of leave by fathers. Results based on multinomial logistic regression models suggest that in comparison to fathers who expect to take their first leave shortly, fathers with leave experience are less likely to report couple-level intentions for another child, significantly so at parity two. Interviews of fathers with parental leave experience confirm that fathers attenuate their fertility intentions downwards in light of the difficulties of childcare during their leave. While these intentions may change further down the line and/or couples may decide to continue an unplanned pregnancy, results suggest that fathers’ parental leave has an anti- rather than pronatalist effect in South Korea. This study demonstrates that in countries with poor support for the reconciliation of employment and childcare, equalizing the gendered division of parental leave may not be sufficient to see a reversal in its fertility trends.

Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000

After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often remain childless. This suggests that levels of childlessness will continue to increase as younger cohorts complete their childbearing histories. In this study, we use microsimulation to project the household and union formation histories of cohorts of Dutch women born between 1971 and 2000. Results suggest that childlessness will actually decrease among cohorts born between 1971 and 1983 and then increase among those born between 1984 and 2000. The decrease occurs as pathways of household and union formation become later, more protracted, and more complex, but also as cohabiting women start to exhibit a higher propensity to become mothers. The increase, on the other hand, occurs as pathways become somewhat less protracted and complex, but also as the propensity of cohabiting women to become mothers returns to previous levels and as age at leaving the parental home strongly rises. Childlessness levels appear to increasingly depend on the childbearing decisions of cohabiting couples and on age at leaving the parental home.

Consistency of the determinants of achieving fertility desires in Ghana: insights from 2003, 2008 and 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data sets

Sub-Saharan Africa has entered the early stage of the demographic transition with differences in and between countries. The relation between fertility preference and actual fertility is at the core of the demographic changes during the demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa. At the current pace of the demographic transition, overachieved fertility (actual fertility being higher than fertility preference) is more prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa although some women do achieve their fertility preference. Our aim is to assess the trends and identify factors that consistently influence women with completed fertility to achieve their fertility desires in Ghana over a 10-year period. We used secondary data from the 2003, 2008 and 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys for the analysis. The sample size was restricted to currently married/living in union women aged 45–49 years. The results indicate that underachieved fertility has increased from 25.1% in 2003 to 35.8% in 2014. Similarly, achieved fertility has also increased from 23.8% in 2003 to 26.0% in 2014. On the contrary, overachieved fertility has decreased from 51.1% in 2003 to 38.2% in 2014. The most persistent determinants of achieved fertility relative to overachieved fertility in Ghana during the last three rounds of the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys are child survival status, ethnicity and couple’s fertility preference. The study provides support for programmatic interventions targeting improving child survival and regulating men’s fertility preference.

Intention to have a second child, family support and actual fertility behavior in current China: An evolutionary perspective

OBJECTIVES

This study provides an evolutionary perspective to a classic topic in demography, that is, the discrepancy between reproductive intention and subsequent behavior, in the context of China's two-child policy.

METHODS

We conduct an event history analysis of longitudinal data from the 2015 and 2018 waves of the Xi'an Fertility Survey (sample size = 321 followed one-child mothers) to test the hypotheses of how within-family support/conflict affects women's fertility behavior.

RESULTS

Only 50% of positive intentions (i.e., intending to have a second child) led to another (live) birth within the 3-year interval; meanwhile, 15% of uncertain intentions and 5% of negative intentions resulted in a birth. Husband's and the firstborn's emotional support raised the hazard of second childbirth along maternal life course, which cannot be fully mediated by mother's fertility intention and thus, contributed to an intention-behavior gap. Husband's sibship size had dual effects on female childbearing behavior: A positive indirect effect mediated by fertility intention, but a negative direct effect presumably due to sibling competition for intergenerational support. Finally, after controlling for fertility intention, having a firstborn son was still associated significantly with a lower second-childbirth hazard, presumably due to son preference as well as concern over parental investment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identifies a discrepancy between maternal fertility intention and realized childbearing, which was partly explained by (lack of) support from other (multiple) stakeholders in family reproduction.

Predictors of underachieved and overachieved fertility among women with completed fertility in Ghana

BACKGROUND

A woman's ability to achieve her preferred family size is critical in addressing issues of high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. The socio-cultural context in sub-Saharan Africa presents some difficulty for the attainment of preferred fertility for many women. Few studies in sub-Saharan Africa have examined the extent to which women are unable to achieve their preferred family sizes. This study, therefore, examines the factors that are associated with the non-attainment of women's preferred fertility by the end of their reproductive years.

DATA AND METHODS

The study analyzed pooled cross-sectional data with a sub-sample of 1,888 currently married women aged 45-49 years from five rounds of the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, 1993 to 2014. Test of associations and multinomial logistic regression analysis were used to examine the predictors of underachieved and overachieved fertility relative to achieved fertility.

RESULTS

The results indicate that 44 per cent of the women recorded overachieved fertility while about 36 per cent underachieved their fertility. Partner wants more, experiencing child loss and married more than once were significantly associated with overachieved fertility. Nonetheless, increased years of a woman's education and delaying her at first birth were negatively associated with overachieved fertility. On the other hand, underachieved fertility was significantly associated with having a partner with fewer fertility preference, being of the Islamic faith and ever use of modern contraception.

CONCLUSION

Partner's fertility preference, child loss experience, marrying more than once and ever use of modern contraception were important predictors of a woman's inability to achieve her fertility preference. Policies to regulate men's fertility behaviour, delaying age at first birth, use of modern contraception, encouraging longer years of education, and reducing infant and child mortality are important strategies to achieve fertility preference in Ghana.

Investigating the effect of behavioral and demographic characteristics of Iranian women on the number of children ever born

Background: The number of children ever born (CEB) to a woman, as an index of her fertility behavior, are interesting for the governments and demographer policymakers. In recent years, a notable reduction of fertility and population aging in Iran has caused concern among politicians, and it has led to starting new changes in demographic policies. Therefore, to adopting new demographic and health policies programs, identification of factors that affecting CEB is essential.

Methods: To evaluate determinant factors on CEB, information of 20093 married Iranian women aged between 15 and 54 years has been analyzed from the Iranian National Institute of Health Research survey. Based on the structure of data and the possible influential unobserved population heterogeneity on CEB in each city and province, a multilevel count regression model was applied. The analysis was performed using the ‘R’ software (version 3.5) with a significant level of 0.05.

Results: Findings show that the mean and median number of CEB was 2.82 and 2.00 for all women, respectively. Meanwhile, these values were 4.56 and 4.00 for the women who reached menopause. There was a significant unobserved heterogeneity affecting CEB in each province (σ_p=0.018). Also, the results of the multilevel model show that living in an urban area (RR=0.90), higher age at first marriage (RR=0.96), higher education (RR=0.84, RR=0.81), and exposure to mass media (RR=0.87) decrease the risk ratio of the number of CEB (p <0.001).

Conclusion: It seems that the tendency of women to academic education and their access to mass media has a significant effect on reducing childbearing. Therefore, in future planning, attention to these two factors can be useful and helpful to move to increase fertility.

Fertility Intentions Within a 3-Year Time Frame: a Comparison Between Migrant and Native Italian Women

The body of literature on the fertility of migrants in Europe has grown significantly in recent decades. The focus has mostly been on analysing their actual behaviours, and reflection on other crucial aspects extensively analysed in studies on natives has been lacking. In particular, differences between migrants’ reproductive decision-making process and that of natives are currently understudied in the European context. We will focus on the association between demographic and socio-economic characteristics and fertility intentions, comparing native Italian and migrant women in Italy. We apply logistic regression models to analyse factors associated with strong intentions to have a child (or positive fertility intention) and strong intentions not to have a child (or negative fertility intention) in the short term. We use data from the Social Condition and Integration of Foreign Citizens survey on households with at least one foreign member and from the Italian Gender and Generation Survey, both carried out at the national level by the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). Net of controlled covariates, migrant women have both higher positive and lower negative fertility intentions within a 3-year time frame than native women do. However, the patterns of fertility intentions are different for natives and migrants as a function of age, educational level, marital status, parity, homeownership and, notably, labour market status. Focusing only on migrant women, we observe that fertility intentions vary by age at arrival and time since migration and that there are significant differences by country and geographical area of birth.

The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires

Persistently high levels of unintended fertility, combined with evidence that over- and underachieved fertility are typical and not exceptional, have prompted researchers to question the utility of fertility desires writ large. In this study, we elaborate this paradox: widespread unintendedness and meaningful, highly predictive fertility desires can and do coexist. Using data from Malawi, we demonstrate the predictive validity of numeric fertility timing desires over both four-month and one-year periods. We find that fertility timing desires are highly predictive of pregnancy and that they follow a gradient wherein the likelihood of pregnancy decreases in correspondence with desired time to next birth. This finding holds despite the simultaneous observation of high levels of unintended pregnancy in our sample. Discordance between desires and behaviors reflects constraints to achieving one's fertility and the fluidity of desires but not their irrelevance. Fertility desires remain an essential-if sometimes blunt-tool in the demographers' toolkit.

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms based genetic risk score in the prediction of pancreatic cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Disease-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) based genetic risk score (GRS) has been proven to provide independent inherited risk other than family history in multiple cancer types.

AIM

To evaluate the potential of GRS in the prediction of pancreatic cancer risk.

METHODS

In this case-control study (254 cases and 1200 controls), we aimed to evaluate the association between GRS and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) risk in the Chinese population. The GRS was calculated based on the genotype information of 18 PDAC-related SNPs for each study subject (personal genotyping information of the SNPs) and was weighted by external odd ratios (ORs).

RESULTS

GRS was significantly different in cases and controls (1.96 ± 3.84 in PDACs vs 1.09 ± 0.94 in controls, P < 0.0001). Logistic regression revealed GRS to be associated with PDAC risk [OR = 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13-1.34, P < 0.0001]. GRS remained significantly associated with PDAC (OR = 1.36, 95%CI: 1.06-1.74, P = 0.015) after adjusting for age and sex. Further analysis revealed an association of increased risk for PDAC with higher GRS. Compared with low GRS (< 1.0), subjects with high GRS (2.0) were 99% more likely to have PDAC (OR: 1.99, 95%CI: 1.30-3.04, P = 0.002). Participants with intermediate GRS (1.0-1.9) were 39% more likely to have PDAC (OR: 1.39, 95%CI: 1.03-1.84, P = 0.031). A positive trend was observed (P trend = 0.0006).

CONCLUSION

GRS based on PDAC-associated SNPs could provide independent information on PDAC risk and may be used to predict a high risk PDAC population.

Declining realisation of reproductive intentions with age

STUDY QUESTION

What is the likelihood of having a child within 4 years for men and women with strong short-term reproductive intentions, and how is it affected by age?

SUMMARY ANSWER

For women, the likelihood of realising reproductive intentions decreased steeply from age 35: the effect of age was weak and not significant for men.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Men and women are postponing childbearing until later ages. For women, this trend is associated with a higher risk that childbearing plans will not be realised due to increased levels of infertility and pregnancy complications.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This study analyses two waves of the nationally representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. The analytical sample interviewed in 2011 included 447 men aged 18–45 and 528 women aged 18–41. These respondents expressed a strong intention to have a child in the next 3 years. We followed them up in 2015 to track whether their reproductive intention was achieved or revised.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGS, METHODS

Multinomial logistic regression is used to account for the three possible outcomes: (i) having a child, (ii) not having a child but still intending to have one in the future and (iii) not having a child and no longer intending to have one. We analyse how age, parity, partnership status, education, perceived ability to conceive, self-rated health, BMI and smoking status are related to realising or changing reproductive intentions.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Almost two-thirds of men and women realised their strong short-term fertility plans within 4 years. There was a steep age-related decline in realising reproductive intentions for women in their mid- and late-30s, whereas men maintained a relatively high probability of having the child they intended until age 45. Women aged 38–41 who planned to have a child were the most likely to change their plan within 4 years. The probability of realising reproductive intention was highest for married and highly educated men and women and for those with one child.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our study cannot separate biological, social and cultural reasons for not realising reproductive intentions. Men and women adjust their intentions in response to their actual circumstances, but also in line with their perceived ability to have a child or under the influence of broader social norms on reproductive age.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our results give a new perspective on the ability of men and women to realise their reproductive plans in the context of childbearing postponement. They confirm the inequality in the individual consequences of delayed reproduction between men and women. They inform medical practitioners and counsellors about the complex biological, social and normative barriers to reproduction among women at higher childbearing ages.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This research was partly supported by a Research School of Social Sciences Visiting Fellowship at the Australian National University and an Australian Research Council Discovery Project (DP150104248). Éva Beaujouan’s work was partly funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) project ‘Later Fertility in Europe’ (Grant agreement no. P31171-G29). This paper uses unit record data from the HILDA Survey. The HILDA Project was initiated and is funded by the Australian Government Department of Social Services (DSS) and is managed by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research (Melbourne Institute). The findings and views reported in this paper, however, are those of the authors and should not be attributed to either DSS or the Melbourne Institute. The authors have no conflicts of interest.

Fertility Intentions and Their Realization in Couples: How the Division of Household Chores Matters

Most research on Europe indicates that a gender-balanced division of family work tends to increase childbearing probabilities, but empirical results vary substantially. The present article proposes explanations for this observed discrepancy. It develops prior research further by (1) studying short-term fertility intentions and their realization within the subsequent 4 years, (2) analyzing the role of the spouses' satisfaction with the division for the effects that the division may have on childbearing, (3) proving a mediation by relationship satisfaction, and (4) considering gender as well as parity as moderators. Using data from two waves of the Generations and Gender Survey, we show that the division of work affects childbearing intentions. We find that the effect (a) depends on the spouses' satisfaction with the division, (b) is partly moderated by relationship satisfaction, and (c) varies by parity. The division of household labor, however, seems of less importance for the realization of childbearing intentions.

Women's attitudes and beliefs about using fertility preservation to prevent age-related fertility decline-A two-year follow-up

OBJECTIVE

The health belief and transtheoretical model were used to describe how women make decisions about fertility preservation (FP) and identify factors that predict their decisions.

METHODS

This is a two-year prospective study with 107 childless women aged 30-37. Women filled anonline survey assessing individual factors, intentions to do FP, variables of the health belief model, FP decisional stage and FP behaviour.

RESULTS

Women´s intentions, desire and number of children wanted decreased, fertility knowledge and perceived susceptibility to infertility increased and perceived severity of infertility decreased. A low number of women progressed through the stages of the decision-making process. Only 14% reached a decision and all decided not to do FP. Women's baseline intentions to do FP predicted their decision.

CONCLUSION

Women at the optimal age range to do FP (28-35 years) do not engage in decision-making about it, which reflects their initial low intentions to do FP. Women's decision about FP is influenced by their perceptions about the technique.

PRATICAL IMPLICATIONS

Women with a high desire for parenthood and within the optimal age range to do FP should receive accurate information about it and could benefit from prompts to engage in active decision-making about doing it.

Reproductive preferences during middle childhood and early adolescence in Guatemala

Reproductive preferences and the spread of low fertility norms occupy a key position in debates regarding the causal mechanisms underlying sustained fertility declines. Most of the literature on reproductive preferences focuses on stability and variability of adult fertility preferences, and their relationship with behavioural outcomes. Little work has focused on the developmental origins of these preferences, particularly in populations undergoing rapid social and demographic change. This study explores the utility of integrating the ontogeny of fertility preferences into accounts of fertility declines. We analyse data on child and adolescent (age 8-15) reproductive preferences collected from a semi-rural community in the Guatemalan Highlands. We explore (1) the distribution of reproductive preferences across age and gender, (2) relationships between family structure and preferences, (3) the relationship between personal economic and occupational aspirations and reproductive preferences, and (4) the effects of parental investments in education on reproductive preferences. Findings reveal the early development of gender and ethnic differences in reported reproductive preferences, as well as evidence for the differential impact of family background and personal aspirations on the timing of reproductive events and ideal family size.

Childless Expectations and Childlessness Over the Life Course

Using nineteen panels of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY-79), we construct life-lines characterizing women's childless expectations and fertility behavior. One-quarter of women in the NLSY-79 cohort ever reported an expectation for childlessness but only 14.8 percent of women remain childless. Childless women follow two predominant life course paths: (1) repeated postponement of childbearing and the subsequent adoption of a childless expectation at older ages or (2) indecision about parenthood signaled through vacillating reports of childless expectations across various ages. We also find that more than one in ten women became a mother after considering childlessness: an understudied group in research on childlessness and childbearing preferences. These findings reaffirm that it is problematic to assign expected and unexpected childlessness labels to the reproductive experience of childless women. In addition, despite their variability over time, childless expectations strongly predict permanent childlessness, regardless of the age when respondents offer them. Longitudinal logistic regression analysis of these childless expectations indicates a strong effect of childbearing postponement among the increasingly selective group of childless women. However, net of this postponement, few variables commonly associated with childlessness are associated with reports of a childless expectation. We thus conclude that the effects of socio-demographic and situational factors on childless expectations are channeled predominantly through repeated childbearing postponement.

Union Histories of Dissolution: What Can They Say About Childlessness?

This study investigates how the association between union dissolution and childlessness depends on life course context. Data on union histories and fertility are taken from the Norwegian GGS. To observe union histories up to age 45, I include men and women born 1927-1962. I further condition on having experienced at least one union dissolution before age 45, giving a study sample of 883 men and 1110 women. To capture the life course context of union dissolutions, I group union histories similar in timing, occurrence and ordering of events using sequence analysis. Eight well-clustered groups of union histories are distinguished. Four consist of life courses dominated by a long first or second union and display low levels of childlessness. The highest proportion childlessness is found among individuals who entered a first union late and dissolved it quickly. Groups characterised by long spells alone after a dissolution or many short unions also displayed a high proportion of childlessness. In contrast to findings from the USA, neither union trajectories nor their link with childlessness varies by educational attainment.

Development and Psychometric Properties of The Delayed Childbearing Questionnaire (DCBQ-55)

The comprehensive assessment of delayed childbearing needs a valid and reliable instrument. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to develop an instrument to evaluate factors influencing delayed childbearing among women and to assess its psychometric properties. The current methodological study was performed in two phases of (i) qualitative instrument development, and (ii) quantitative psychometric assessment of the developed instrument. Face and content validity of the instrument was assessed by eligible women and a panel of experts. Construct validity was assessed using the exploratory factor analysis (EFA). For reliability, internal consistency reliability and intra-rater reliability analysis were used. The initial instrument developed from the qualitative phase consisted of 60 items, which were reduced to 55 items after the face and content validity processes. EFA (n = 300) using the Kaiser criteria (Eigenvalues > 1) and the scree plot led to a six-factor solution accounting for 61.24% of the observed variance. The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, Spearman’s correlation, test–retest and intra-class correlation coefficients for the whole instrument were reported as 0.83, 0.86 and 0.81, respectively. The final instrument entitled the delayed childbearing questionnaire (DCBQ-55) included 50 items with six domains of ‘readiness for childbearing’, ‘stability in the partner relationship’, ‘awareness about the adverse outcomes of pregnancy in advanced maternal age’, ‘attitude toward delayed childbearing’, ‘family support’, and ‘social support’ on a five-point Likert scale. The DCBQ-55 as a simple, valid and reliable instrument can assess factors influencing delayed childbearing. It can be used by reproductive healthcare providers and policy makers to understand factors influencing delayed childbearing and devise appropriate strategies.

Socioeconomic determinants of rural women's desired fertility: A survey in rural Shaanxi, China

There has been evidence demonstrating that China has had a persistently low and below-replacement level fertility since early 1990s, causing concerns of a rapidly aging population and sustainability of the Chinese economy. To avoid adverse effects of excessively low fertility, the Chinese government has recently changed its family planning policy from "one-child policy" to "two-child policy." Nonetheless, the effectiveness of the newly initiated two-child policy is questionable if women's average desired number of children or desired fertility for their lifetime is below the threshold fertility allowed by the two-child policy. Therefore, this study argues that it would be interesting and pertinent to know women's fertility desires under the circumstances of no policy restrictions and understand major factors that may affect their desired fertility. Based on a multi-stage stratified cluster sampling survey with 2,516 women respondents in rural Shaanxi, this study tries to estimate desired fertility of rural women and evaluate the impact of important socioeconomic factors on their desired fertility. The results of this study reveal that the average lifetime desired fertility for rural women of childbearing age in Shaanxi is about 1.71, below the total fertility rate at the replacement level. The findings of this study suggest that women's marriage age, the pecuniary costs of having children, women's income forgone for having children, and social security benefits available for rural residents at retirement age, are significantly and negatively related to desired fertility. However, rural women's cultural views towards fertility are significantly but positively related to their desired fertility. This study further confirms that China has entered an era of low fertility, and thus, any policy restrictions on fertility may no longer be necessary. Instead, government programs which support childbearing and childrearing are needed to prevent excessive low fertility and rapid aging of the population.

Women's relative status and childbearing intentions: Empirical evidence from Iran

Childbearing intentions are primary predictor of childbearing behaviors, particularly in low fertility societies. This study examined the role of relative status of women in childbearing intentions in Iran where fertility has been declining since 1986 and it has been around the replacement level during the last two decades. Data from the 2010 Iran’s Multiple Indicator Demographic and Health Survey (IrMIDHS) were used to estimate the effect of relative status of women on intention to have more children among women with one child and those with two children. The results showed modest effect of relative status of women on future childbearing intentions at both parity one and two controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors. One implication from this finding is that within low fertility regimes where fertility level is around or below replacement level, the relative status of women is no more as important determinant of childbearing intention as in situations of high fertility regimes. This interpretation is consistent with the fact that most of the studies showing strong effect from relative status of women on childbearing are based on data from the situations where fertility level has been at the pre-transitional level.

The Decline in Marriage in Israel, 1960-2007: Period or Cohort Effect?

Over the past four decades, the more developed countries have experienced a marked decline in the marriage rates of both men and women. The reasons for the decline remain a debated issue. Three explanations predict that the decline in marriage is a period effect, while two predict that it is a birth cohort effect. To determine whether the decline is a period or a cohort effect, this study performed an age-period-cohort analysis. Using data from Israel, our results show that both cohort replacement and period factors were important. Until 1990-1994 the decline in marriage was a period effect, whereas after 1990-1994 the decline was a cohort effect. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our results for the three major explanations of the decline in marriage.

Determined to stop? Longitudinal analysis of the desire to have no more children in rural Mozambique

Classic demographic theories conceptualize desired family size as a fixed goal that guides fertility intentions over the childbearing years. However, a growing body of research shows that fertility plans, even nominally long-term plans for completed childbearing, change in response to short-term conditions. Because of data limitations, much of this research has focused on low-fertility contexts, but short-term conditions are likely to be even more important in high-fertility contexts. This paper uses three waves of survey data collected in rural Mozambique to study predictors of the desire to stop childbearing in a context of relatively high fertility and high individual and social instability. We use fixed effects models to assess how women's desires to stop childbearing are shaped by demographic factors, household economic conditions, and health status, controlling for constant individual characteristics. Results provide evidence that fertility desires both reflect stable underlying goals and evolve in response to individual and social circumstances.

Men's knowledge, attitudes and behaviours relating to fertility

BACKGROUND

The increasingly common practice in high-income countries to delay childbearing to the fourth and fifth decades of life increases the risk of involuntary childlessness or having fewer children than desired. Older age also increases the risk of age-related infertility, the need for ART to conceive, and obstetric and neonatal complications. Existing research relating to childbearing focusses almost exclusively on women, and in public discourse declining fertility rates are often assumed to be the result of women delaying childbearing to pursue other life goals such as a career and travel. However, evidence suggests that the lack of a partner or a partner willing to commit to parenthood is the main reason for later childbearing.

OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE

To better understand men's contributions to childbearing decisions and outcomes, the literature pertaining to men's fertility-related knowledge, attitudes and behaviours was reviewed.

SEARCH METHODS

The electronic databases of Medline, Embase and PsycINFO were searched to identify investigations of men's knowledge, attitudes and behaviours relating to fertility, infertility, reproductive health or childbearing using relevant fertility keyword search terms. Studies were included if they had investigated factors associated with men's fertility-related knowledge, attitudes and behaviours, had been conducted in a high-income country and were published in an English language peer-reviewed journal between January 2005 and August 2016.

OUTCOMES

The search yielded 1349 citations. Of these, 47 papers representing 43 unique studies were included in the review. Where response rate was reported, it ranged between 13 and 94%. Studies varied in terms of research design; inclusion and exclusion criteria; recruitment strategies; adequacy of sample size; recruitment and retention rates and data collection tools. However, findings were consistent and indicate that men almost universally value parenthood, want and expect to become fathers, and aspire to have at least two children. Yet most men have inadequate knowledge about the limitations of female and male fertility and overestimate the chance of spontaneous and assisted conception. Perceptions of ideal circumstances in which to have children included being in a stable and loving relationship, having completed studies, secured a permanent job and a dependable income, having achieved personal maturity, and having a partner who desires children and is 'suitable' as a potential co-parent. Although all studies were conducted in high-income countries, between-country social and cultural differences may have influenced the findings relating to attitudes.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS

Men aspire to parenthood as much as women do but have limited knowledge about the factors that influence fertility. The gap between ideal biological and ideal social age for having children appears to be widening, narrowing the time frame in which parenthood can be achieved. This may lead to unfulfilled parenthood aspirations. The findings can inform government policies and public education strategies aimed to support childbearing during the most fertile years, reduce the personal and societal cost of infertility and ART use, and allow people to fulfil their parenthood goals.

Why Childless Men and Women Give Up on Having Children

In this paper we address the question why childless women and men aged 35 years and older, who originally were considering having children, voluntarily gave up on having children. We hypothesise that this adjustment could be attributed to five mechanisms: adaptation to a lifestyle without children; resignation because of severe hindrances to having children; approaching the end of the fecund period; perceiving a low degree of social influence from significant others to have children; and a low degree of personal persistence in pursuing life goals. We analyse data from the first six waves of the German Family Panel (Pairfam) and employ multinomial logistic regression models. As the dependent variable we distinguished four types of sequences over the observation period: "permanently considering having children", "given up on having children", "switching", and "permanently not considering having children". Being female, being not employed, and having low scores on the emotional autonomy scale increased the likelihood of giving up on having children, while anticipating positive consequences of parenthood and perceiving influence from parents to have a child decreased it. The results show that all mechanisms addressed by the hypotheses were at work to a certain extent. In particular, the integration of personality factors and the importance of other life goals beyond parenthood provided valuable insights into the reasons for giving up on having children. Future research in this field should focus more than was possible in our study on societal age norms and the role of partners in giving up on having children.

The Reproductive Ecology of Industrial Societies, Part II : The Association between Wealth and Fertility

Studies of the association between wealth and fertility in industrial populations have a rich history in the evolutionary literature, and they have been used to argue both for and against a behavioral ecological approach to explaining human variability. We consider that there are strong arguments in favor of measuring fertility (and proxies thereof) in industrial populations, not least because of the wide availability of large-scale secondary databases. Such data sources bring challenges as well as advantages, however. The purpose of this article is to illustrate these by examining the association between wealth and reproductive success in the United States, using the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979. We conduct a broad-based exploratory analysis of the relationship between wealth and fertility, employing both cross-sectional and longitudinal approaches, and multiple measures of both wealth (income and net worth) and fertility (lifetime reproductive success and transitions to first, second and third births). We highlight the kinds of decisions that have to be made regarding sample selection, along with the selection and construction of explanatory variables and control measures. Based on our analyses, we find a positive effect of both income and net worth on fertility for men, which is more pronounced for white men and for transitions to first and second births. Income tends to have a negative effect on fertility for women, while net worth is more likely to positively predict fertility. Different reproductive strategies among different groups within the same population highlight the complexity of the reproductive ecology of industrial societies. These results differ in a number of respects from other analyses using the same database. We suggest this reflects the impossibility of producing a definitive analysis, rather than a failure to identify the “correct” analytical strategy. Finally, we discuss how these findings inform us about (mal)adaptive decision-making.

Determinants of second pregnancy among pregnant women: a hospital-based cross-sectional survey in China

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore determinants of second pregnancy and underlying reasons among pregnant Chinese women.

DESIGN

The study was a population-based cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

16 hospitals in 5 provinces of Mainland China were included.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2345 pregnant women aged 18 years or above were surveyed face to face by investigators between June and August 2015.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The pregnancy statuses (first or second pregnancy) and reasons for entering second pregnancy.

RESULTS

A total of 1755 (74.8%) and 590 (25.2%) women in their respective first and second pregnancies were enrolled in this study. The most common self-reported reasons for entering second pregnancy among participants included the benefits to the first child (26.1%), love of children (25.8%), adoption of the 2-child policy (11.5%), concerns about losing the first child (7.5%) and suggestions from parents (7.5%). Pregnant women with low (prevalence ratio (PR) 1.96; 95% CI 1.62 to 2.36) and moderate education level (PR 1.97; 95% CI 1.65 to 2.36) were more likely to have a second pregnancy than their higher educated counterparts. Income was inversely associated with second pregnancy. However, unemployed participants (PR 0.79; 95% CI 0.66 to 0.95) were less likely to enter a second pregnancy than those employed. Women with moderate education were 3 times more likely to have a second child following the '2-child policy' than the low education level subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

1 in every 4 pregnant women is undergoing a second pregnancy. The benefits of the firstborn or the love of children were the key drivers of a second pregnancy. Low socioeconomic status was positively associated with a second pregnancy as well. The new 2-child policy will have an influence on China's demographics.

Family Systems and Fertility Intentions: Exploring the Pathways of Influence

Family systems, as normative frameworks in which family processes unfold, are believed to exert a major influence on fertility. While a number of studies have addressed family system effects on family size and the timing of births, the question of how family systems influence fertility intentions has remained largely unexplored. Because fertility intentions are often not realized, studying the pathways through which these intentions are framed warrants further attention. Addressing this research gap, this paper explores the pathways of influence between family systems and people's intentions to start or to extend their family in the framework of the theory of planned Behaviour. We use a path analysis to analyse data from the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) on fertility intentions of 28,988 individuals from nine European countries that considerably vary in family systems. Regional indicators of family systems were constructed on the basis the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and incorporated in the analytical sample. The results demonstrate an important link between family systems and fertility intentions. Family systems frame people's intentions by influencing their attitudes towards children and their ideas about existing norms regarding fertility. This influence works partly through affecting household size and partly through influencing people's ideas about the requirements for having children. Family system effects vary between intentions to start and to extend a family. While nearness to kin decreased positive attitudes towards having children of childless respondents, having kin nearby had the opposite effect for those that were already parents.