Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe

Family trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in three European countries: A multistate approach in comparative research

This study investigates partnership changes and childbearing among immigrants and their descendants in the UK, France, and Germany. Our analysis of longitudinal data shows, first, significant diversity in family trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in Europe. Immigrants from other European countries and their descendants tend to cohabit prior to marriage, and their fertility in unions is often similar to that of the native population. In contrast, South Asians and Turkish populations exhibit marriage-centred family behaviour with elevated third-birth rates. Individuals of sub-Saharan African or Caribbean origin display higher rates of non-marital family transitions. Second, we observe some changes in partnership and childbearing patterns across migrant generations; these are stronger for fertility than for partnership patterns. Third, migration background is particularly associated with partnership patterns, whereas the destination country context influences childbearing patterns. We expect some patterns to persist across future migrant generations (e.g. preference for marriage vs cohabitation), whereas others are likely to vanish (e.g. large families).

Economic Cycles and Entry into Parenthood: Is the Association Changing and Does it Affect Macro-Level Trends? Micro-Level Hazard and Simulation Models of Belgian Fertility Trends, 1960-2010

The association between economic cycles-typically measured in terms of GDP growth or swings in unemployment-and macro-level fertility trends has received ample attention in the literature. Compared to studies that consider macro-level fertility, individual-based models can address the association between economic cycles and specific stages of family formation (e.g. entry into parenthood) more precisely while allowing for structural factors that contribute to fertility postponement. Using population-wide longitudinal microdata from the Belgian censuses we combine discrete-time hazard models of entry into parenthood for the period 1960 to 2010 with microsimulation models to assess whether economic cycles in tandem with educational expansion can account for year-to-year variation in the proportion of women entering parenthood and variation in the pace of fertility postponement at the macro-level. Results indicate that educational expansion has been a structural driver of fertility postponement, whereas the procyclical effect of economic cycles accounts for accelerations and decelerations of fertility postponement throughout the period considered. Microsimulation of macro-level fertility trends indicates that individual-based models predict the annual proportion of women entering parenthood and the mean age at first birth with average errors of prediction below 1 per cent and 3 months, respectively, while also showing strong correlations between first differences of observed and simulated time-series. Because the extended observation window encompasses several severe recessions, we test whether the association between economic cycles and entry into parenthood has changed over time and how this affected macro-level trends, discussing several mechanisms that may account for such temporal variation.

Family ideals in an era of low fertility

Taking stock of individuals' perceived family ideals is particularly important in the current moment given unprecedented fertility declines and the diversification of households in advanced industrial societies. Study participants in urban China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, Italy, Spain, and Norway were asked to evaluate vignettes describing families whose characteristics vary on ten dimensions. In contrast to previous studies that focused on a single dimension, such as fertility ideals or gender roles, this holistic vignette approach identifies the relative importance of each dimension. Multilevel regression analysis reveals both expected and unexpected findings. Parenthood remains a positive ideal, but the number of children does not matter once other family dimensions are considered, a potentially important finding in light of conventional wisdom regarding the two-children ideal. When evaluating families with at least one child, respondents tend to positively evaluate more traditional arrangements, including valuing marriage relative to cohabitation and, particularly, divorce. Also, in addition to financial resources, good communication between immediate and extended family members, as well as maintaining respect in the larger community, are highly salient attributes of an ideal family. Notwithstanding some important cross-national differences, egalitarian gender roles and avoiding work-family conflict are also valued positively. Overall, even as the study reveals some notable variations between societies, respondents across countries identify similar components of an ideal family.

Fertility Declines Near the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 Birth Declines in Germany and Sweden

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries faced short-term fertility declines in 2020-2021, a development which did not materialize in the majority of German-speaking and Nordic countries. However, more recent birth statistics show a steep fertility decline in 2022. We aim to provide empirical evidence on the unexpected birth decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden. We rely on monthly birth statistics and present seasonally adjusted monthly Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for Germany and Sweden. We relate the nine-month lagged fertility rates to contextual developments regarding COVID-19. The seasonally adjusted monthly TFR of Germany dropped from 1.5-1.6 in 2021 to 1.4 in early 2022 and again in autumn 2022, a decline of about 10% in several months. In Sweden, the corresponding TFR dropped from about 1.7 in 2021 to 1.5-1.6 in 2022, a decline of almost 10%. There is no association of the fertility trends with changes in unemployment, infection rates, or COVID-19 deaths, but a strong association with the onset of vaccination programmes and the weakening of pandemic-related restrictions. The fertility decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden is remarkable. Common explanations of fertility change during the pandemic do not apply. The association between the onset of mass vaccinations and subsequent fertility decline indicates that women adjusted their behaviour to get vaccinated before becoming pregnant. Fertility decreased as societies were opening up with more normalized life conditions. We provide novel information on fertility declines and the COVID-19-fertility nexus during and in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic.

The Gender Wage Gap and Parenthood: Occupational Characteristics Across European Countries

Different strands of research analyse gender occupational differences and how they relate to differential earnings, especially among parents juggling family demands. We use rich data from PIAAC across a subset of European countries and match occupational characteristics to individuals' jobs using the O*NET database to analyse, first, whether there are gender differences in the occupational characteristics of jobs, particularly among parents, and second, whether the return to key occupational characteristics varies by gender. Compared to men, women's jobs generally require more contact with others, less autonomy in decision-making, and less time pressure. In addition, positions held by mothers involve both less leadership expectations and less intensive use of machines than those held by fathers. Further, mothers receive a lower return to both of these occupational characteristics than fathers do. Finally, even though gaps in occupational characteristics such as leadership jointly with the differential sorting of mothers and fathers across sectors explain part of the gender wage gap in Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition models, especially in Continental Europe, a large share remains unexplained particularly in Eastern and Southern European countries.

Partnership dynamics and entry into parenthood: Comparison of Finnish birth cohorts 1969-2000

During the past decade, the stability of close-to-replacement-level fertility ended in all Nordic countries, with its decline to the lowest level in Finland. It is unclear whether and how partnership dynamics have changed, and whether they play a role in fertility developments. We focus on the patterns and associations between the formation and stability of co-residential partnerships and first birth among Finnish women and men, and on whether and how these associations have changed across birth cohorts. We utilise total population register data on persons born between 1969 and 2000 in Finland, and adopt the event history method. Our results indicate that half of the women formed their first co-residential partnerships by the age of 22 years. Cohorts born in the early 1990s were the first to delay the formation of non-marital first partnerships. In contrast, first births are increasingly postponed, and the proportion of women and men, who become parents, has declined across recent cohorts. Among men, we observe higher median ages for family formation events and higher likelihoods of not forming a family. As a result of fertility decline and increase in partnership instability, for the first time, the probability of separation is higher than that of first births among partnered women born in the 1990s. Our findings show that at a behavioural level, the once close link between partnership formation and parenthood has progressively eroded across consecutive birth cohorts. Together with the ongoing tendency to delay first births, decreasing partnership stability, and first indications of delaying partnership formation, the potential of witnessing a marked increase of fertility levels in the near future is delimited. Our study's results contribute to a better understanding of the demographic mechanisms behind the decline in fertility in Finland, over the recent decade.

Employment Protection Legislation, Labour Market Dualism, and Fertility in Europe

Theoretically, whether a more loosely regulated labour market inhibits or fosters fertility in a society is ambiguous. Empirically, the few studies analysing the relationship between the strictness of employment protection legislation-the norms and procedures regulating labour markets' hiring and firing processes-and fertility have found mixed evidence. This paper reconciles the ambivalent conclusions of previous studies by analysing the impact of employment protection legislation and labour market dualism on total fertility across 19 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Our results indicate that an increase in employment protection for regular workers positively affects total fertility. Nonetheless, an increasing gap between the regulation of regular and temporary employment-that is, labour market dualism-negatively impacts total fertility. These effects, of small-to-moderate intensity, are relatively homogeneous across age groups and geographical areas and are especially pronounced among the lower educated. We conclude that labour market dualism, rather than a "rigid" employment protection legislation, discourages fertility.

Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty

Building on a thick strand of the literature on the determinants of higher-order births, this study uses a gender and class perspective to analyse second birth progression rates in Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1990 to 2020, individuals are classified based on their occupation into: upper service, lower service, skilled manual/higher-grade routine nonmanual, and semi-/unskilled manual/lower-grade routine nonmanual classes. Results highlight the "economic advantage" of men and women in service classes who experience strongly elevated second birth rates. Finally, we demonstrate that upward career mobility post-first birth is associated with higher second birth rates, particularly among men.

The prospective power of personality for childbearing: a longitudinal study based on data from Germany

The link between personality and fertility is relatively underexplored. Moreover, there are only a few studies focusing on the prospective association between personality and childbearing. However, none of these studies considered the Five-Factor Model (FFM), which is the most widely accepted measurement of personality. The present study fills this gap by examining the prospective association between the FFM and the hazard ratio of the first and the second childbirth in Germany. Analyses are based on recent data (2005–2017) from the Socio-economic Panel Study. Cox proportional hazard models are applied. Findings demonstrate that personality traits are associated with fertility. Extraversion is positively linked with the first childbirth, but is negatively associated with the second childbirth. These findings are mainly driven by males. Agreeableness is positively linked with the first childbirth across the total sample. Again, this correlation is mainly based on the findings for men, among whom a positive association between agreeableness and the second childbirth is also found. Among women, personality does not seem to be linked with the first childbirth. However, the risk of having a second child is found to be negatively associated with conscientiousness. My study adds to the current understanding of the personality–fertility association by exploring the impact of personality trait scores from the FFM on subsequent fertility behavior. However, further research is needed on the association between personality and childbearing; on the mechanisms through which personality affects fertility; and on how these links differ across cultures, among higher parities, and for births after re-partnering.

Measuring the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility in low-fertility contexts: an overview of existing measures

Numerous studies aim to connect negative fertility desires and outcomes with employment conditions deemed to be uncertain. However, there is a lack of consensus about how to define, conceptualise, and measure employment uncertainty. This paper considers issues surrounding the conceptualisation of employment uncertainty. It then reviews existing measures of employment uncertainty in the context of fertility decisions. Finally, it raises considerations about their use. While some aspects of employment uncertainty are well studied, there are still gaps between theory and empirical evidence. Researchers should be aware of existing population heterogeneity, contextual factors, and model selection when considering their conceptualisation of employment uncertainty.

Gendered division of housework and childcare and women’s intention to have a second child in Spain

The Gender Revolution Theory forecasts a rise in fertility as gender equality increases and permeates the private sphere. However, empirical evidence across different societies has not always been conclusive, which suggests further research on the relationship between gender equality and fertility is needed. This research aims to assess the impact of the distribution of housework and childcare within the couple on one-child mothers’ fertility intentions in Spain. The educational expansion in recent decades has facilitated women’s mass entry into the workforce in this country. Nevertheless, the distribution of unpaid labour remains quite gendered and public support for families is scarce, making family/work balance challenging, especially for women. Using data from the 2018 Spanish Fertility Survey, the results suggest that when the distribution of housework is highly unbalanced between mothers and fathers, women are less likely to intend to have a second child. In contrast, unequal childcare workload does not substantially impact their intention to have a second child. Furthermore, whereas women’s satisfaction with the distribution of housework and childcare does not seem to moderate the effect of distribution, their education level slightly does. University-educated women are more likely to revise their fertility intentions downwards when the distribution is highly unequal.

Precarious employment, precarious life? A qualitative study exploring the perspective of temporary agency workers and their households

BACKGROUND

Previous research demonstrated the negative consequences of precarious employment for the health and well-being of employees. However, the broader social consequences of precarious employment are under-examined.

OBJECTIVE

This study explores the broader impact of precarious employment on the life course, family and social life of households. A multi-actor perspective is adopted, considering the perspectives of different household members.

METHODS

For this aim, in-depth (household) interviews among temporary agency workers in Belgium are conducted.

RESULTS

The results reveal that precarious employment influences the life course and family and social life in three ways: (1) by hindering or facilitating life course events and transitions of household members, (2) by influencing the daily life and household planning, and (3) by influencing the mood of household members.

CONCLUSION

The consequences of precarious employment reach further than the work environment; they impact the life course, and social and family life of workers. Moreover, precarious employment does not only influence the workers themselves, but also their household members, which is often forgotten in studies. Therefore, policy makers should consider the far-reaching consequences of precarious employment when developing (flexible) labour market policies.

Fertility plans in the early times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of occupational and financial uncertainty in Italy

This study investigates the association between objective and subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, generated by the COVID-19 health and economic crisis, and young Italians' fertility plans during the 2020. We use unique repeated cross-sectional data, collected at different time points during the pandemic (March and October/November 2020) together with pre-COVID data (2016). The data offer a standard fertility intention question pre- and during-COVID, and also a direct question on whether pre-COVID fertility plans have been confirmed, postponed or abandoned. In March 2020, individuals with more vulnerable occupations show a lower probability of intending to have a(nother) child in the short-term and a higher probability of abandoning their pre-COVID fertility plan; in October 2020 changes in fertility plans do not vary by employment condition. Instead, both in March and October, those who suffered from a negative income shock and those with negative expectations on their future income and occupation are more likely to abandon their pre-pandemic fertility plan compared to their better off counterparts. Overall, economic uncertainty seems to have similarly affected men and women's fertility intentions. Our findings point to the fact that the unequal economic consequences of the pandemic also produced and will produce heterogeneous effects on fertility intentions.

Association between pregnancy intention and psychological distress among women exposed to different levels of restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the mental health of people globally. Significant concerns about health and access to services among women of reproductive age considering pregnancy may cause psychological distress, and in turn increase health risks during and after pregnancy for mothers and offspring.

Objectives

To examine the association between pregnancy intention and psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia, and explore if this association differed based on local viral transmission rates and corresponding levels of pandemic restrictions.

Methods

A nationwide online survey was completed by 849 non-pregnant women aged 18–50 years between 15 October and 7 November 2020. Women were asked about their intention to become pregnant, and psychological distress was assessed using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10). Multivariable regression analysis examined associations between pregnancy intention and psychological distress. An interaction term was added to the model to examine differences in associations by level of viral transmission rates and lockdown restrictions which was determined based on postcode.

Results

Pregnancy intention was not associated with experiencing (very) high psychological distress in the overall study population (odds ratio (OR) 1.42, 95% CI 0.94, 2.11). The interaction term (p = 0.09) suggested potential differences by level of restrictions and viral transmission rates. In stratified analysis among women living in a location with strict lockdown restrictions and high viral transmission rates leading up to and during the study, those planning to become pregnant were more likely to experience (very) high psychological distress (OR 3.39, 2.04, 5.65) compared with women not planning to become pregnant. Pregnancy intention was not associated with psychological distress among women exposed to lower levels of pandemic restrictions and viral transmission rates (OR 1.17, 0.74, 1.85).

Conclusions

Our findings highlight the need to identify and support women planning pregnancy during a public health crisis to mitigate potential short- and long-term intergenerational negative health outcomes associated with psychological distress.

Economic Precariousness and the Transition to Parenthood: A Dynamic and Multidimensional Approach

Economic precariousness has taken on a central role in explanations of the postponement of childbearing in developed societies. However, most studies conceptualize and operationalize precariousness as being static and one-dimensional, which provides only a partial perspective on the links between precariousness and fertility. In this paper, we study precariousness as a dynamic and multidimensional concept, distinguishing between past and current precariousness as well as between precariousness relating to income and to employment. Analyses are based on Dutch full-population register data. We select all inhabitants of the Netherlands who left education in 2006 and follow them until 2018. Event history analyses show that current and past income and employment precariousness all have independent negative effects on the first birth rate for men. Current and past employment precariousness and past income precariousness also reduce the first birth rate for women, but current income precariousness increases women's probability of first conception. When precariousness is both persistent and multidimensional, it is associated with a threefold decrease in the monthly probability of conceiving a first child for men and almost a halving of the probability for women. Our analyses show the need for going beyond static and one-dimensional analyses in order to understand how economic precariousness may affect fertility behaviour.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09617-4.

Social Investment Policies and Childbearing Across 20 Countries: Longitudinal and Micro-Level Analyses

This study analyses the influence of family policies on women's first and second births in 20 countries over the period 1995 to 2007. Welfare states have shifted towards social investment policies, yet family policy-fertility research has not explicitly considered this development. We distinguish between social investment-oriented and passive support that families may receive upon the birth of a child and consider changes in policies over time. These indicators are merged with fertility histories provided by harmonized individual-level data, and we use time-conditioned, fixed effects linear probability models. We find higher social investment-oriented support to be correlated with increased first birth probabilities, in contrast to passive family support. First birth probabilities particularly declined with higher passive family support for women over age 30, which points to a potential increase in childlessness. Social investment-oriented support is positively related to first and second births particularly for lower-educated women and has no relationship to childbirth for highly educated women, countering the Matthew-effect assumptions about social investment policies. Passive support is negatively related to second births for post-secondary educated women and those who are studying. Family policies that support women's employment and labour market attachment are positively linked to family expansion and these policies minimize educational differences in childbearing.

Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries

The dominance of two-child families is considered an intrinsic characteristic of low fertility societies. Their share was continuously increasing among baby boom cohorts but the rise ceased afterwards. While parity- and education-specific fertility trends during the expansion of the two-child families have been studied, corresponding analyses of developments in the post-expansion birth cohorts are scarce. This study investigates the parity-specific fertility trends that ended the expansion of two-child families across educational groups. We use data on completed fertility of female cohorts born between 1936 and 1970 in 16 low-fertility countries. Besides examining trends in education- and parity-specific fertility, we provide evidence on increasing variation in family size and on the contribution of parity-specific fertility to the share of two child families among women with low, medium and high education. Our results show that the expansion of two-child families stopped as the variation in family size increased: transition rates to first and/or second birth declined whereas those to third birth increased. This polarisation process was strongest among women with low education. Apparently, as the number of women progressing to second birth declined, they became more selected and family-oriented, and thus more likely to progress to further births. The fact that the strongest polarisation of fertility was observed among the low educated reflects the group’s increasing selectivity. We demonstrate that rising polarisation of family size is a common development to most high-income low-fertility populations, especially among the low educated, regardless of substantial cross-country differences in fertility levels as well as in institutional, economic and cultural settings.

Early impact of COVID-19 pandemic on childbearing plan in Bangladesh

The COVID-19 pandemic has already had many consequences for social life. This paper focused on the early impact of COVID-19 pandemic on pandemic-period childbearing plan that was made before the onset of the pandemic. Data were collected by posting survey questionnaire on social networks in Bangladesh. A total of 384 Bangladeshi men and women of reproductive age were analyzed using descriptive and multivariate logistic regression analyses after adjusting the data by applying sampling weights. One out of every five respondents was found to cancel their pandemic-period pregnancy plan by considering potential crises related to COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings showed that in canceling pandemic-period pregnancy, factors related to the potential crises of the pandemic emerged as more important than some persistent determinants of fertility, fertility intention and non-realization of fertility intention. Infection of COVID-19 to the acquaintance, being teenager, complete stopping and decline in income, and acquaintance's suggestion not to get pregnant during the pandemic played key role in canceling the pandemic-period pregnancy plan. Although it is uncertain if the impact of COVID-19 will substantially be reflected in the future fertility estimates of Bangladesh, the pandemic showed negative impact on pandemic-period childbearing plan during the early months.

The Positive Effect of Women's Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China

Despite pervasive evidence of more educated women having lower fertility, it remains unclear whether education reduces women's fertility. This study presents new evidence of the causal effect of women's education on fertility from China, where fertility has remained below the replacement level since the early 1990s. To account for endogeneity, the study exploits the timing and varying intensity of China's higher education expansion as exogenous sources of increase in women's education. Using data from China General Social Survey (2010-2012), findings show that each year of women's education induced by the higher education expansion increases the number of children ever born by 10%. According to the average marginal effects, each additional year of women's education increases the number of children ever born by 0.14, decreases the probability of having no children by 3 percentage points, and increases the probability of having two or more children by 4 percentage points. Two mechanisms drive the positive effect of education: first, education does not cause an increase in the mean age at first marriage; second, among ever-married women, education increases their demand for children. Findings from this study have important implications for China and other low-fertility developing countries.

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic uncertainty. We contribute to this debate by arguing that, under uncertain conditions, narratives of the future-i.e., socially conveyed imagined futures-impact individuals' decision-making about childbearing. To assess this impact, we conducted (for the first time in fertility intention research) a controlled laboratory experiment in two contrasting settings: Florence (Italy, N = 800) and Oslo (Norway, N = 874). Individuals were randomly exposed to a specific positive or negative future economic scenario (treatments) and were compared with individuals who were not exposed to any scenario (control group). Participants were then asked whether they intended to have a child in the next three years. The results showed a clear causal impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions among the participants. Moreover, when the actual economic condition at the macro- (country context) or micro-level (labor-market status and characteristics) was more favorable, negative narratives of the future played a more crucial role. Conversely, when the actual economic conditions were less favorable, positive narratives of the future proved especially important. We conclude that, in the era of global uncertainty, individuals respond to more than their actual situation and constraints; narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.

Work and fertility in Taiwan: how do women's and men's career sequences associate with fertility outcomes?

There has been much debate over the micro-level relationship between employment situations and fertility in Europe and Northern America. However, related research in East Asia is scant, although countries in this region have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Moreover, most studies analyse the employment-fertility relationship from a static perspective and only for women, which underemphasises life course dynamics and gender heterogeneity of employment careers and their fertility implications. Drawing on retrospective data from the 2017 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS), this study explores women's and men's career trajectories between ages 18 and 40 in Taiwan using sequence cluster analyses. It also examines how career variations associate with different timing and quantum of birth. Empirical results show that economically inactive women experience faster motherhood transitions and have more children by age 40 than women with stable full-time careers. For men, having an unstable career associates with slower fatherhood transitions and a lower number of children. For both genders, self-employed people are the earliest in parenthood transitions and have the highest number of children by midlife. Our findings demonstrate sharp gender contrasts in employment careers and their diversified fertility implications in low-fertility Taiwan.

The effects of unemployment on fertility

We analyse the effects of unemployment on the likelihood of having a first and second birth in Denmark. The existing studies on this topic have generated contradictory results, and have made a weak case for the exogeneity of unemployment to fertility. We suggest that firm closures constitute an exogenous source of unemployment, and adopt firm closures as an instrument for estimating individuals' fertility responses. Using a life-course approach, we exploit unique administrative data from Denmark that include all Danish residents born in 1966 and followed between 1982 and 2006. The data contain monthly information about each individual's employment status, type of employer, relationship status and partner's characteristics; as well as very detailed fertility information, including on stillbirths and registered miscarriages. We find that unemployment has a positive effect on motherhood transitions and a negative effect on fatherhood transitions, although the latter is not robust to the inclusion of controls. We find no significant effect of unemployment on second births.

Racial Pairings and Fertility: Do Interracial Couples Have Fewer Children?

OBJECTIVE

Our overall goal is largely descriptive-to compare recent fertility patterns between racially endogamous and exogamous couples in the United States. Evidence of lower fertility among exogamous or interracial couples arguably provides indirect evidence of social distance and cultural and economic integration.

BACKGROUND

The growth of interracial marriage and cohabitation has fueled the rise in biracial or mixed-race children. Fertility rates are uneven among racial and ethnic groups, seemingly rooted in stigma and cultural differences (e.g., fertility norms). Whether fertility is different among interracial couples is unclear: Fertility rates that largely conform to the population of racially endogamous White couples provide evidence of social integration whereas differential fertility may reveal gender dynamics in fertility decision-making, including power relationships that depend on the race of male and female partners.

METHOD

We pool data from the 2008 to 2017 American Community Survey to compare past-year fertility patterns among endogamously and interracially married and cohabiting couples.

RESULTS

Fertility is generally lower among racially exogamous than endogamous unions, especially among Asian American-White couples. Fertility among American Indian-White couples is much closer to patterns of White couples than of American Indian couples. Fertility among other interracial couples nevertheless varies by the race of male partners. That is, fertility of the Black male/White female and the Hispanic male/White female couples is similar to patterns found among endogamous Black and Hispanic couples, respectively. The White male/Black female and the White male/Hispanic female couples follow the fertility patterns of White couples.

CONCLUSION

In general, the fertility levels of interracial couples are intermediate between those of endogamous White couples and their endogamous Black, Hispanic, or American Indian counterparts, but vary significantly by the race-gender mix of partners.

Employment Instability and Fertility in Europe: A Meta-Analysis

The relationship between employment instability and fertility is a major topic in demographic research, with a proliferation of published papers on this matter, especially since the Great Recession. Employment instability, which most often manifests in unemployment or time-limited employment, is usually deemed to have a negative effect on fertility, although different fertility reactions are hypothesized by sociological theories, and micro-level evidence is fragmented and contradictory. We used meta-analytic techniques to synthesize European research findings, offer general conclusions about the effects of employment instability on fertility (in terms of direction and size), and rank different sources of employment instability. Our results suggest that employment instability has a nonnegligible negative effect on fertility. Men's unemployment is more detrimental for fertility than men's time-limited employment; conversely, a woman having a fixed-term contract is least likely to have a child. Next, the negative effect of employment instability on fertility has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries, where social protection for families and the unemployed is least generous. Finally, meta-regression estimates demonstrate that failing to account for income and partner characteristics leads to an overestimation of the negative effect of employment instability on fertility. We advance the role of these two factors as potential mechanisms by which employment instability affects fertility. Overall, this meta-analysis provides the empirical foundation for new studies on the topic.

COVID-19 lockdowns and demographically-relevant Google Trends: A cross-national analysis

The spread of COVID-19 and resulting local and national lockdowns have a host of potential consequences for demographic trends. While impacts on mortality and, to some extent, short-term migration flows are beginning to be documented, it is too early to measure actual consequences for family demography. To gain insight into potential future consequences of the lockdown for family demography, we use cross-national Google Trends search data to explore whether trends in searches for words related to fertility, relationship formation, and relationship dissolution changed following lockdowns compared to average, pre-lockdown levels in Europe and the United States. Because lockdowns were not widely anticipated or simultaneous in timing or intensity, we exploit variability over time and between countries (and U.S. states). We use a panel event-study design and difference-in-differences methods, and account for seasonal trends and average country-level (or state-level) differences in searches. We find statistically significant impacts of lockdown timing on changes in searches for terms such as wedding and those related to condom use, emergency contraception, pregnancy tests, and abortion, but little evidence of changes in searches related to fertility. Impacts for union formation and dissolution tended to only be statistically significant at the start of a lockdown with a return to average-levels about 2 to 3 months after lockdown initiation, particularly in Europe. Compared to Europe, returns to average search levels were less evident for the U.S., even 2 to 3 months after lockdowns were introduced. This may be due to the fact, in the U.S., health and social policy responses were less demarcated than in Europe, such that economic uncertainty was likely of larger magnitude. Such pandemic-related economic uncertainty may therefore have the potential to slightly increase already existing polarization in family formation behaviours in the U.S. Alongside contributing to the wider literature on economic uncertainty and family behaviors, this paper also proposes strategies for efficient use of Google Trends data, such as making relative comparisons and testing sensitivity to outliers, and provides a template and cautions for their use in demographic research when actual demographic trends data are not yet available.

The impact of economic uncertainty, precarious employment, and risk attitudes on the transition to parenthood

This study investigates how precarious employment throughout the life course affects the fertility behavior of men and women in Germany, and how risk attitudes moderate exposure to objectively given uncertainty. Analyzing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study from 1990 to 2015, I find that men and women have become quite similar in their fertility behavior: Stable employment accelerates family formation, whereas discontinuous and precarious employment delays it. With regard to risk attitudes, risk-averse women show the highest likelihood of family formation. They appear to choose a family- and parenthood-centered path in their life course that provides them with stability and social approval when unstable career prospects and uncertain employment are unable to provide these resources.

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002-2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrated at the country level, we use data for 251 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states prior to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom in January 2020. We apply three-level growth-curve model which allows for a great deal of flexibility in modelling temporal change while controlling for variation in economic conditions across regions and countries. Our findings show that fertility decline was strongly related to unemployment increase; this relationship was significant at different reproductive ages. Deteriorating economic conditions were associated with a stronger decline in fertility during the economic recession as compared with the pre-recession period. This evidence suggests the salience of factors such as broader perception of uncertainty that we could not capture in our models and which rose to prominence during the Great Recession. Furthermore, strongest fertility declines were observed in Southern Europe, Ireland and parts of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. countries and regions where labour market conditions deteriorated most during the recession period. In Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the recession indicators.

Brazil's Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior

Zika virus epidemics have potential large-scale population effects. Controlled studies of mice and nonhuman primates indicate that Zika affects fecundity, raising concerns about miscarriage in human populations. In regions of Brazil, Zika risk peaked months before residents learned about the epidemic and its relation to congenital anomalies. This spatiotemporal variation supports analysis of both biological effects of Zika infection on fertility and the effects of learning about Zika risk on reproductive behavior. Causal inference techniques used with vital statistics indicate that the epidemic caused reductions in birth cohort size of approximately one-quarter 18 months after Zika infection risk peaked but 10 months after public health messages advocated childbearing delay. The evidence is consistent with small but not statistically detectable biological reductions in fecundity, as well as large strategic changes in reproductive behavior to temporally align childbearing with reduced risk to infant health. The behavioral effects are larger for more-educated and older women, which may reflect facilitated access to information and to family planning services within high-risk, mosquito-infested urban locations as well as perceptions about the opportunity costs of risks to pregnancy and infant survival.

The impact of job uncertainty on first-birth postponement

This paper aims to advance our understanding of entry into employment with uncertain conditions in Italy and its causal impact on the onset of the fertility process. We adopt the potential outcome approach to causal inference so as to quantify the net effect of having a first job with a temporary or a permanent contract on the propensity to have a first child within the first five years of employment. The analysis is based on retrospective data from the nationally representative 2009 Family and Social Subjects survey. Our results suggest that 7% of potential first-birth postponement among women and 5% of potential postponement among men is attributable to jobs with uncertain conditions. These individuals would have had a first child if they had had a permanent job. For women, potential postponement is elevated among those with higher education (reaching 16%), while for men potential postponement is especially visible among those with low and medium education. With this paper we quantify a non-negligible negative effect for early exposure to labour market uncertainties on potential first-birth postponement in Italy.

Labor market influences on Women's fertility decisions: Longitudinal evidence from Canada

While fertility theories suggest that insecure labor market experiences encourage women to postpone having children, few have examined whether job insecurity perceptions influence fertility in the North American context-an omission we address in the current study. Findings from event history analyses of a panel dataset of Canadian workers (Canadian Work, Stress and Health Study) reveal that perceived job insecurity is salient for women's first birth decisions but not subsequent births. Further subgroup analyses show that the association between perceived job insecurity and likelihood of a first birth is limited to college-educated women and those in low unemployment labor market regions. Among women with less than a college degree and those in high-unemployment regions, the likelihood of a first birth does not vary by respondents' perceptions of insecurity. Results suggest a more nuanced relationship between insecure work and women's childbearing decisions than predicted by traditional pro-cyclical accounts of the economy-fertility association.

Unemployment delays first birth but not for all. Life stage and educational differences in the effects of employment uncertainty on first births

This study investigates how unemployment is associated with the transition to parenthood among men and women in times of increased instability in the labour market. We provide novel insights into how education and life stage might modify the link between unemployment and fertility. We focus on a Nordic welfare state, Finland, and apply event history models to a rich register sample covering the years 1988-2009 (N = 306,413). We find that unemployment or a weaker labour market attachment tends to delay parenthood among both men and women, but the association is stronger for men. In most groups, the accumulation of unemployment periods is associated with a lower rate of entry into parenthood. However, among young, low-educated women, even long-term or recurring unemployment seems to promote first childbearing, and the generally negative association between unemployment and entry into parenthood does not apply to young, low-educated men. The effect of unemployment is largely mediated by the low income of unemployed persons. Overall, our findings suggest that in a modern, gender-egalitarian welfare society, better employment prospects promote transition to parenthood in a very similar fashion among men and women, but the effects are strongly modified by education and life course stage.

Transition to first birth during the Great Recession: the case of Greece

Abstract

In this study, we examine the effects of the economic uncertainty of partners on the transition to first birth in Greece before and after the onset of the recent economic crisis. After selecting a sample of childless couples, we applied a random effects model to EU-SILC data for the period 2005–2013. Few studies have focused on the association between economic uncertainty and fertility in Greece considering characteristics of both partners. Even fewer studies have examined panel data in the context of the recent crisis. Our findings show that Greek couples in which both partners are employed, have a high income, or are highly educated are in a more favourable position to have a first child. During the Greek Great Recession, corresponding in our study to the period 2010–2013, the odds of having a first child decreased to half the odds in the 2005–2009 period. The recession period also modified the effect of couples’ characteristics on first childbearing. During the economic crisis, male breadwinner couples were particularly penalized in their transition to have a first child. Surprisingly, couples with at least one temporary worker, usually the woman, were encouraged to have their first child. Implications in terms of gender and social inequality are discussed in the concluding section, and selection processes at play are also discussed.

Keywords

Fertility, Economic uncertainty, Economic recession, Greece

Fertility, Migration and Acculturation (FEMINA): a research protocol for studying intersectional sexual and reproductive health inequalities

BACKGROUND

The existing knowledge on the interplay between reproductive and sexual health, migration and acculturation is recent and inconsistent, particularly on the sociocultural motives and constraints regarding fertility. Therefore, sexual and reproductive health (SRH) surveys are needed to provide accurate and comparable indicators to identify and address SRH inequalities, with specific focus on under researched aspects, such as the interrelation between migration and gender. FEMINA (FErtility, MIgratioN and Acculturation) aims to investigate intersectional SRH inequalities among Cape Verdean immigrant and Portuguese native families and how they impact on fertility in Portugal. This study will use a comprehensive approach exploring simultaneously the components of SRH, namely regarding identities, perceptions and practices of both women and men among lay people and relevant experts and stakeholders. The project has three main goals: 1) to identify social determinants of SRH among Cape Verdean immigrant and Portuguese native men and women of reproductive age; 2) to gain understanding of the diversity of the sexual and reproductive experiences and expectations of Cape Verdean immigrant and Portuguese native men and women of reproductive age, considering the singularities of their migratory, social and family dynamics; and 3) to produce recommendations for policy makers, employers and service providers on how to better address the SRH needs of Portuguese-born and immigrant populations.

METHODS

The study will address these goals using a mixed methods approach, including: a cross-sectional telephone survey with a probabilistic sample of 600 Cape Verdean immigrant and 600 Portuguese native women and men (women aged 18 to 49 and men aged 18 to 54), residents of the Greater Lisbon Area; a qualitative research through in-depth interviews with a subsample of 30 Cape Verdean immigrants and 30 Portuguese native men and women; and a Delphi technique for finding consensus on good practices in SRH for the entire population with a special emphasis on immigrants, namely extra-EU migrants.

DISCUSSION

Data will be used to produce a comprehensive set of indicators to monitor SRH in Portugal, to foster a greater understanding of its specificities and challenges to policy and decision makers, and to provide targeted recommendations to promote inclusive and migrant sensitive SRH services.

Partners' Educational Pairings and Fertility Across Europe

We provide new evidence on the education-fertility relationship by using EU-SILC panel data on 24 European countries to investigate how couples' educational pairings predict their childbearing behavior. We focus on differences in first-, second-, and third-birth rates among couples with varying combinations of partners' education. Our results show important differences in how education relates to parity progressions depending on the education of the partner. First, highly educated homogamous couples show a distinct childbearing behavior in most country clusters. They tend to postpone the first birth most and display the highest second- and third-birth rates. Second, contrary to what may be expected based on the "new home economics" approach, hypergamous couples with a highly educated male and a lower-educated female partner display among the lowest second-birth transitions. Our findings underscore the relevance of interacting both partners' education for a better understanding of the education-fertility relationship.

Are Children a Joy or a Burden? Individual- and Macro-level Characteristics and the Perception of Children

This study examines how individuals perceive children, focusing on two dimensions-the positive aspects of having children and the perception of children as a burden-and taking into account relations with both individual- and macro-level characteristics. Three dimensions are examined on the macro-level: policies that support families, the cultural environment, and economic conditions. The study is based on the 2012 ISSP module on "Family and Gender Roles" and covers 24 OECD countries. The findings show that countries vary widely in their negative perceptions of children, but evince relatively greater similarity in their positive perceptions. Institutional support for children and working parents and traditional family values as captured by religiosity are important factors in explaining cross-country variation in negative perceptions of children. Further, policies may help men and women adopt a more positive view of children and reduce differences among educational groups in relation to children.

Religiosity, Secularity and Fertility in Canada

Using several cycles of the Canadian General Social Survey covering cohorts born from the early 1900s onwards, this paper examines how religiosity and secularity associate with fertility in Canada. The analysis shows that among multiple dimensions of religiosity, religious attendance is the strongest predictor of higher fertility in the country. For the latest cycle conducted in 2011, three mutually exclusive groups of secularized women are compared with the actively religious in their fertility behaviour and intentions. All these secularized women are found to have lower fertility rates compared with the actively religious. Among them, the strictly seculars, a proxy identifier for the atheists, have the lowest fertility and the highest likelihood of remaining childless. Various implications are discussed.

Gender egalitarianism, perceived economic insecurity, and fertility intentions in Spain: A qualitative analysis

Economic uncertainty contributes to low fertility in many European countries. On the other hand, greater gender equality may positively influence fertility. This paper examines how these two forces interact in Spain. We use in-depth interviews to analyse fertility decision-making among young and highly educated partnered adults living in urban areas. Highly gender-egalitarian interviewees are less likely to perceive economic insecurity as an obstacle to proceeding to a next birth than less egalitarian interviewees. But there is not necessarily a difference in these two groups' overall fertility intentions, as highly egalitarian interviewees' greater valuation of stable employment for both partners requires institutional and policy support for dual-earner couples' childrearing. When we look only at interviewees who express economic insecurity, somewhat higher fertility intentions are expressed by those holding less gender-egalitarian attitudes. Our results underline the complexity of the interrelationships between economic insecurity, gender egalitarianism, and fertility intentions.

Conceptualising women's motivations for social egg freezing and experience of reproductive delay

As the average age of motherhood in many Western countries continues to rise, the spectacle of the older mother and the trend towards delayed childbearing has been the subject of much public debate and interest. Concurrent to this trend has been the development and use of a new form of fertility preservation - social egg freezing - a technology which by its very nature is meant to enable reproductive delay. Whilst previous studies have been able to provide insights into the complex and often interrelating structural, economic, and relational factors shaping the timing of motherhood, and in some cases women's use of social egg freezing, fewer studies have clearly demonstrated the way these factors themselves, as well as the accounts of individual women, can be seen as being shaped by ideological and discursive forces. Drawing on interviews with 31 users of social egg freezing this article will demonstrate how women's accounts of reproductive delay and use of egg freezing technology can be seen as being shaped by neoliberal rationality, heteronormativity, discourses of 'appropriate parenting' and gendered ideologies of parenthood.