Geographical Appraisal of COVID-19 in West Bengal, India

The underlying factors of excess mortality in 2020: a cross-country analysis of pre-pandemic healthcare conditions and strategies to cope with Covid-19

BACKGROUND

Government responses to the pandemic varied in terms of timing, duration, and stringency, seeking to protect healthcare systems, whose pre-pandemic state varied significantly. Therefore, the severity of Covid-19 and, thus, excess mortality have been unequal across counties. This paper explores the geography of excess mortality and its underlying factors in 2020, highlighting the effects of health policies pre-pandemic and strategies devised by governments to cope with Covid-19.

METHODS

Excess mortality is estimated for 79 high, medium and low-income countries. The factors of excess mortality are examined employing median quantile regression analysis.

RESULTS

Health privatization, healthcare underfunding, and late implementation of containment and mitigation strategies were powerful drivers of excess mortality. By contrast, the results suggest a negative association of excess mortality with health expenditure, number of doctors and hospital beds, share of population covered by health insurance and test and trace capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence highlights the importance of sufficiently funded healthcare systems with universal access and strong primary healthcare in the battle against the pandemic. An early response to Covid-19, including borders' controls and a strong test and trace capacity, could improve epidemiological surveillance and minimize excess mortality, with stringent and lengthy lockdowns not providing a significant benefit.

Geospatial modelling of COVID-19 vulnerability using an integrated fuzzy MCDM approach: a case study of West Bengal, India

COVID-19 is a worldwide transmitted pandemic that has brought a threatening challenge to Indian society and the economy. The disease has become a public health disaster, which has no effective medication. However, proper management and planning, which includes understanding the transmitting pattern, number of containment zones, vulnerable factors, and level of risk, may break the chain of transmission and reduce the number of cases. Hence, this study has attempted to model the COVID-19 vulnerability using an integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach, namely fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy-technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) for West Bengal, India, through geographic information system (GIS). A total of 15 parameters were utilised to model the COVID-19 vulnerability, which was further categorised into three criteria: social vulnerability, epidemiological vulnerability, and physical vulnerability. The final vulnerability mapping has been done using these three criteria through the GIS platform. This study reveals that COVID-19 infection highly threatens about 20% of the total area of West Bengal, 23.42% moderately vulnerable, and 57.03% of the area comes under low vulnerability. The highly vulnerable region includes the Kolkata, South 24 Paraganas, and North 24 Paraganas, which are considered highly populated districts of West Bengal. Therefore government agencies should be more focused and plan accordingly to safeguard the community, especially the region with very high COVID-19 vulnerability, from further spreading the infection.