Evaluating seismic risk by MCDM and machine learning for the eastern coast of India

Natural disasters such as earthquakes endanger human lives and infrastructure, particularly in urban areas. With the advancements in science and technology in understanding natural hazards, recent studies have attempted to mitigate them by mapping the risks using geospatial technology. In this paper, we attempt to integrate the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) models, namely the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Criteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC), besides using the artificial neural network (ANN) to assess the seismic risk in the eastern coast of India. The AHP-CRITIC technique is used to evaluate the earthquake coping capacity and vulnerability and has been further used to generate a training base for earthquake probability mapping by ANN. The earthquake probability and spatial intensity information are used to develop the hazard map. Following that, integrating vulnerability, hazard and coping capacity spatial information assessed earthquake risk. Our results indicate that approximately 5% of the study area is at high risk, whilst more than 11% of the population is at high risk due to seismic induced hazards. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve is 0.85, which indicates reliable results. The results of this study may help various agencies involved in planning, development and disaster mitigation to develop seismic hazard mitigation methods by better understanding their impacts on the eastern coastal region of India.

Geospatial modelling of COVID-19 vulnerability using an integrated fuzzy MCDM approach: a case study of West Bengal, India

COVID-19 is a worldwide transmitted pandemic that has brought a threatening challenge to Indian society and the economy. The disease has become a public health disaster, which has no effective medication. However, proper management and planning, which includes understanding the transmitting pattern, number of containment zones, vulnerable factors, and level of risk, may break the chain of transmission and reduce the number of cases. Hence, this study has attempted to model the COVID-19 vulnerability using an integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach, namely fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy-technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) for West Bengal, India, through geographic information system (GIS). A total of 15 parameters were utilised to model the COVID-19 vulnerability, which was further categorised into three criteria: social vulnerability, epidemiological vulnerability, and physical vulnerability. The final vulnerability mapping has been done using these three criteria through the GIS platform. This study reveals that COVID-19 infection highly threatens about 20% of the total area of West Bengal, 23.42% moderately vulnerable, and 57.03% of the area comes under low vulnerability. The highly vulnerable region includes the Kolkata, South 24 Paraganas, and North 24 Paraganas, which are considered highly populated districts of West Bengal. Therefore government agencies should be more focused and plan accordingly to safeguard the community, especially the region with very high COVID-19 vulnerability, from further spreading the infection.

Guidelines for clinical trials of frontal fibrosing alopecia: consensus recommendations from the International FFA Cooperative Group (IFFACG)

BACKGROUND

Frontal fibrosing alopecia (FFA) has become one of the most common causes of cicatricial alopecia worldwide. However, there is a lack of clear aetiology and robust clinical trial evidence for the efficacy and safety of agents currently used for treatment.

OBJECTIVES

To enable data to be collected worldwide on FFA using common criteria and assessment methods.

METHODS

A multicentre, international group of experts in hair loss was convened by email to create consensus recommendations for clinical trials. Consensus was defined at > 90% agreement on each recommended part of these guidelines.

RESULTS

Standardized diagnostic criteria, severity rating, staging, and investigator and patient assessment of scalp hair loss and other clinical features of FFA were created.

CONCLUSIONS

These guidelines should allow the collection of reliable aggregate data on FFA and advance efforts in both clinical and basic research to close knowledge gaps in this condition.

Treatment of stable and recalcitrant vitiligo by autologous miniature punch grafting: a prospective study of 1,000 patients

BACKGROUND

Stable and refractory vitiligo may be unresponsive to medical therapy. Melanocyte transplantation by punch grafting (PG) can restore the normal pigmentation.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy of PG on repigmentation of vitiligo patches.

METHODS

Autologous miniature PG was undertaken in 1,000 patients with stable and recalcitrant vitiligo. Test grafting (TG) was done in all the patients. Those who showed negative TG results were excluded from the study.

RESULTS

Of the 1,000 patients, 880 (88%) showed positive TG results. In 656 (74.55%) patients, 90-100% repigmentation was achieved. In 93 (10.57%) patients, there was no spread of pigment, while in 21 (2.39%) patients depigmentation of the graft(s) was notices. Of various complications, polka dot appearance (43.98%) and colour mismatch (34.32%) were most frequent.

CONCLUSION

Partial to near-total repigmentation of a vitiligo patch can be achieved by PG.

Crushing assisted shave excision and electrodesiccation: A novel approach to treat granuloma pyogenicum

BACKGROUND

Granuloma pyogenicum (GP) is a common vascular lesion which often bleeds easily during most of the treatment modalities. A number of pyogenic granulomas often recur after such treatment.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to establish a surgical procedure which is easy to operate, less invasive, minimal bleeding at the operation site and without any recurrence of the lesion.

METHODS

Twenty-three patients (15males, and 8females) suffering from granuloma pyogenicum at different stages (ulcerated, reepithelialized and resolving) and at various sites of the body constituted the sample population. In all the patients, crushing of the base of the lesions followed by shave excision and electrodesiccation of the shaved base were carried out. The patients were followed up for six months to observe recurrence, scar formation and any other complications.

RESULTS

Bleeding was practically nil during the surgical procedure in all the cases. There was no recurrence and cosmetic outcome was excellent. No complications were encountered.

CONCLUSION

The technique is not only an alternative modality but can also be the treatment of choice in all stages of granuloma pyogenicum.

Schamberg's disease - an unusual presentation

A 28-year-old man with typical lesions of Schamberg's progressive pigmented purpuric dermatosis involving his right forearm is reported here for its unusual localisation.

Ichthyosis linearis circumflexa

A case of ichthyosis linearis circumflexa in a 9-year old boy is reported here for its rarity.

Topical tretinoin in acanthosis nigricans

Efficacy of topical tretinoin was assessed in 30 cases of idiopathic acanthosis nigricans which were recalcitrant to conventional modalities of treatment. Topical tretinoin once at night application was found to be very effective both clinically and histologically.

Inter-rater reliability of a paediatric outcome measure in Nepal

The Hospital and Rehabilitation Centre for Disabled Children (HRDC) in Nepal identified the need to evaluate their in-hospital and community programmes. An instrument was developed to provide information regarding the functional level of the children treated by the HRDC as well as to provide information regarding care-givers' attitudes towards disability. Inter-rater reliability of the measure was tested in three regions of Nepal with 49 children. Six HRDC field workers travelled in pairs to the childrens' homes and alternated in roles as test administrator and observer. Correlations between the scores documented by the administrator and observer were used to estimate inter-rater reliability. Inter-rater reliability coefficients, calculated using a weighted kappa statistic, varied from 0.60 to 1.0. We conclude that the instrument demonstrated an acceptable level of inter-rater reliability in the field setting. Future studies to measure construct and concurrent validity, test-retest reliability and responsiveness of the instrument are recommended as well as testing the instrument in different cultures.

Iontophoretic Treatment of Hyperkeratosis with Sodium Salicylate

Ten patients having hyperkeratosis with moderate to severe fissures on palms and soles were treated with iontophoresis using 5-10% aqueous solution of sodium salicylate. The results were excellent within a period of 3-4 weeks (6-8 sittings each for a period of 10-15 minutes). The treatment was free from the problems of salicylism. Follow-up in some of the reclcitrant cases for 4 months after stop the treatment and with no local application, showed neither any relapse nor deterioration. Sodium salicylate iontophoresis in hyperkeratosis seems to be safe well tolerated and far more effective than the usual local applications of salicylic acid.