The use of segmented regression for evaluation of an interrupted time series study involving complex intervention: the CaPSAI project experience

Implementation of integrated maternity care in the southwestern region of the Netherlands: evaluation of its effect on preterm birth, low birthweight infants and number of secondary care consultations

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether integrated maternity care is associated with reduced preterm births (PTB) and fewer small-for-gestational-age infants (SGA), and whether its implementation leads to a reduction of secondary care consultations.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING

Integrated maternity care organisation in the southwestern region of the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

All singleton pregnancies (≥24 weeks) within integrated maternity care organisation Annature between 2015 and 2020.

INTERVENTION

Implementation of a shared maternity record in primary and secondary care.

METHODS

Data of 20 818 women were derived from patient records and from the Netherlands Perinatal Registry. Intervention was the introduction of integrated maternity care in January 2018. Through multivariate logistic regression and segmented regression analysis we assessed the combined prevalence of SGA and PTB (SGA-PTB) before (2015-2017), and after the intervention (2018-2020). Regional rates were contrasted with nationwide rates (n=782 176).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

SGA-PTB prevalence and mean number of secondary care consultations per pregnancy.

RESULTS

SGA-PTB prevalence declined from 618/3443 (17.9%) in 2015 to 560/3501 (16.0%) in 2017 to 507/3459 (14.7%) in 2020 (p<0.005). Mean number of secondary care consultations declined from six per pregnancy in 2015 to three in 2020. Logistic regression demonstrated a significant decline in odds of SGA-PTB (OR 0.83 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.89)) between 2015-2017 and 2018-2020 adjusted for changes in sociodemographic characteristics over time. A statistically significant average monthly 7.3% (p=0.05) reduction in SGA-PTB prevalence and 12.4% (p<0.005) mean monthly reduction in secondary care consultations were demonstrated for 2015-2017. Immediately after the intervention, mean monthly prevalence of SGA-PTB dropped non-significantly to 14.7%. Between 2018 and 2020 a significant 15.2% (p<0.005) reduction in secondary care consultations was shown.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that implementation of integrated maternity care was associated with reduced PTBs and/or low birth weight, and fewer secondary care consultations. These encouraging findings were observed in a less favourable sociodemographic profile and should be confirmed in other regions with sufficiently large populations, and the possibility to test individual components of integrated maternity care.

The role of social accountability in changing service users' values, attitudes, and interactions with the health services: a pre-post study

This study evaluated the effects of community engagement through social accountability on service users' values, attitudes and interactions. We conducted a pre-post study of the community and provider driven social accountability intervention (CaPSAI) over a 12-month period among 1,500 service users in 8 health facilites in Ghana and in Tanzania (n = 3,000).In both countries, there were significant improvements in women's participation in household decision-making and in how service users' perceive their treatment by health workers. In both settings, however, there was a decline in women's knowledge of rights, perception of service quality, awareness of accountability mechanisms and collective efficacy in the community. Though CaPSAI intervention set out to change the values, attitudes, and interactions between community members and those providing contraceptive services, there were changes in different directions that require closer examination.

Effect of a two-phase tobacco control regulation on incidence from ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke, Shenzhen, China, 2007-2016

INTRODUCTION

The Shenzhen government is widely considered to be most efficiently implementing smoke-free legislation in China. We evaluated and compared the impact of Shenzhen's two-phase smoke-free regulation on the incidence rates for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke.

METHODS

An interrupted time series design was used to capture immediate and annual incidence changes from 2007 to 2016 for both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke due to two-phase smoke-free regulation in Shenzhen, China, by using a generalized additive model. The first phase, implemented on 9 March 2010, required five main public places to be smoke-free. In the second phase, the comprehensive law was expanded to the whole city on 1 March 2014.

RESULTS

The regulation implementation during phase I was associated with a strong immediate decline in the incidence rate of ischemic stroke (-14.2%, 95% CI: -19.6 - -8.4) and hemorrhagic stroke (-10.1%, 95% CI: -18.2 - -1.2), but without showing the annual changes (p>0.05). Following the implementation of the comprehensive law, the gradual annual effect showed a significant change in ischemic stroke, with a 6.3% (95% CI: 8.9 - -3.6) reduction. Neither the immediate nor gradual decreases in hemorrhagic stroke incidences associated with the comprehensive regulation were statistically significant during phase II (p>0.05). Subgroup analyses indicate that a much larger health effect of the regulation during phase I was greater among those aged ≥65 years than among those aged 35-64 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Shenzhen's two-phase smoke-free regulation was well implemented. Even though the regulation did not extend to the whole city, the immediate health benefits on the incidence rates of ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke could be seen. However, the health benefits brought by the implementation of comprehensive smoke-free legislation were attenuated by previous smoke-free regulations in five main public places, which were more evident in hemorrhagic stroke.

Impact of community and provider-driven social accountability interventions on contraceptive uptake in Ghana and Tanzania

Background

Social accountability, which is defined as a collective process for holding duty bearers and service providers to account for their actions, has shown positive outcomes in addressing the interrelated barriers to quality sexual and reproductive health services. The Community and Provider driven Social Accountability Intervention (CaPSAI) Project contributes to the evidence on the effects of social accountability processes in the context of a family planning and contraceptive programme.

Methods

A quasi-experimental study utilizing an interrupted time series design with a control group (ITS-CG) was conducted to determine the actual number of new users of contraception amongst women 15–49 years old in eight intervention and eight control facilities per country in Ghana and Tanzania. A standardized facility audit questionnaire was used to collect facility data and completed every year in both intervention and control groups in each country from 2018–2020.

Results

In Ghana, the two-segmented Poisson Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) model demonstrated no statistically significant difference at post-intervention, between the intervention and control facilities, in the level of uptake of contraceptives (excess level) (p-value = 0.07) or in the rate of change (excess rate) in uptake (p-value = 0.07) after adjusting for baseline differences. Similarly, in Tanzania, there was no statistical difference between intervention and control facilities, in the level of uptake of contraceptives (excess level) (p-value = 0.20), with the rate of change in uptake (p-value = 0.05) after adjusting for the baseline differences. There was no statistical difference in the level of or rate of change in uptake in the two groups in a sensitivity analysis excluding new users recruited in outreach activities in Tanzania.

Conclusions

The CAPSAI project intervention did not result in a statistically significant increase in uptake of contraceptives as measured by the number of or increase in new users. In evaluating the impact of the intervention on the intermediate outcomes such as self-efficacy among service users, trust and countervailing power among social groups/networks, and responsiveness of service providers, cases of change and process evaluation should be considered.

Trial registration

The CaPSAI Project has been registered at the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12619000378123, 11/03/2019).

Assessment of Calories Purchased After Calorie Labeling of Prepared Foods in a Large Supermarket Chain

IMPORTANCE

Calorie labels for prepared (ie, ready-to-eat) foods are required in large chain food establishments in the US. Large evaluations in restaurants suggest small declines in purchases of prepared foods after labeling, but to the authors' knowledge, no studies have examined how this policy influences supermarket purchases.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate changes in calories purchased from prepared foods and potential packaged substitutes compared with control foods after calorie labeling of prepared foods in supermarkets.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This controlled interrupted time series compared sales 2 years before labeling implementation (April 2015-April 2017) with sales 7 months after labeling implementation (May 2017-December 2017). Data from 173 supermarkets from a supermarket chain with locations in Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont were analyzed from March 2020 to May 2022.

INTERVENTION

Implementation of calorie labeling of prepared foods in April 2017.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Purchased items were classified as prepared foods, potential packaged substitutes for prepared foods, or all other (ie, control) foods. The primary outcome was mean weekly calories per transaction purchased from prepared foods, and the secondary outcome was mean weekly calories per transaction purchased from similar packaged items (for substitution analyses). Analyses of prepared and packaged foods were stratified by food category (bakery, entrées and sides, or deli meats and cheeses).

RESULTS

Among the included 173 supermarkets, calorie labeling was associated with a mean 5.1% decrease (95% CI, -5.8% to -4.4%) in calories per transaction purchased from prepared bakery items and an 11.0% decrease (95% CI, -11.9% to -10.1%) from prepared deli items, adjusted for changes in control foods; no changes were observed for prepared entrées and sides (change = 0.3%; 95% CI, -2.5% to 3.0%). Labeling was also associated with decreased calories per transaction purchased from packaged bakery items (change = -3.9%; 95% CI, -4.3% to -3.6%), packaged entrées and sides (change = -1.2%; 95% CI, -1.4% to -0.9%), and packaged deli items (change = -2.1%; 95% CI, -2.4% to -1.7%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this longitudinal study of supermarkets, calorie labeling of prepared foods was associated with small to moderate decreases in calories purchased from prepared bakery and deli items without evidence of substitution to similar packaged foods.