Increased Urge to Gamble Following Near-Miss Outcomes May Drive Purchasing Behaviour in Scratch Card Gambling

The modulation of reward expectancy on the processing of near-miss outcomes: An ERP study

A near-miss is a situation in which a gambler almost wins but falls short by a small margin, which motivates gambling by making it feel like success is within reach. Existing research has extensively investigated the influence of contextual information on near-miss outcome processing; however, the impact of reward expectancy has received limited attention thus far. To address this gap, we utilized the wheel of fortune task and event-related potential technique (ERP) to quantify the electrophysiological responses associated with gambling outcomes at different levels of reward expectancy. Behaviorally, near-miss outcomes elicited a greater occurrence of counterfactual thoughts, feelings of regret, and heightened anticipation of rewards for subsequent trials compared to full-miss outcomes. ERP findings indicated that in contrast to full-miss outcomes, near-miss outcomes diminished feedback-related negativities (FRNs) and amplified P300s when reward expectancy was low, but amplified FRNs and diminished P300s when reward expectancy was high. These findings provide valuable insights into the neural mechanisms underlying the processing of outcome proximity and reward expectancy.

Power and Gambling: Dispositional Power Predicts Persistence on a Computerized Scratchcard Task

In gambling contexts, near-misses tend to be perceived as more aversive yet elicit greater motivation to continue playing than clear losses. The current research aimed to examine these effects in the context of situational and dispositional social power. In a pre-registered online study, Hong Kong Chinese undergraduate students (N = 238) with varying levels of gambling involvement completed a measure assessing their general beliefs about their ability to influence others and were then randomly assigned to imagine themselves in a position of high or low power. Participants subsequently played a computerized scratchcard task that delivered wins, near-misses, and clear losses and took trial-by-trial ratings of valence, arousal, and motivation. Following a mandatory phase, persistence was measured via the number of additional scratchcards participants chose to purchase. The results generally corroborated previous findings of different subjective appraisals to near-misses vs. clear losses, but surprisingly found that near-misses were considered to be more pleasant than clear losses. Situational power did not differentially modify these responses. Nevertheless, a main effect of dispositional power emerged in that participants who felt chronically high in power were twice as likely to purchase additional scratchcards compared to their low dispositional power counterparts. This study suggests that a generalized sense of power but not situational power triggers approach motivation in the form of prolonged gambling play.

The scratch card gambler: a hidden reality

Scratch cards-otherwise known as scratch tickets or instant lotteries-are a highly accessible type of lottery, due to its relative accessibility and affordability. In Portugal, the popularity of scratch cards has experienced substantial growth, with almost no regulatory reaction whatsoever. This study aims to describe the sociodemographic characteristics of scratch card gamblers, prevalent gambling habits, and their perceptions regarding scratch card gambling. This study also determines the constancy of pathological scratch card gambling, and the possible impact of regulatory measures. We found that about half of the participants studied were at risk of pathological gambling and scratch cards seem to have a clear potential for enticing higher spending in vulnerable consumers, compared to other forms of gambling games. Perception biases regarding gambling are frequent and almost no one afflicted seeks help. Regulatory measures are crucial to regulate potential problematic behaviors, specifically in high-risk persons. There is an urgent need to act, made clear by both present findings and numerous precedent warnings regarding scratch card gambling hazards.

Push Outcomes Bias Perceptions of Scratch Card Games

In the domain of scratch card gambling, "pushes" refer to outcomes in which a prize is won that is equal to the cost of a scratch card game. Despite resulting in no net monetary gain, these outcomes are categorized as wins by lottery operators, effectively inflating published scratch card information (e.g., posted odds of winning). Additionally, the experience of obtaining a push shares similarities (e.g., the revealing of matching symbols) with the experience of obtaining a win and thus may be experienced similarly to wins by gamblers. Across four studies (N = 1502), we examined the impact of push outcomes on participants' perceptions of scratch card games. In Studies 1 and 2, participants reported feeling more likely to win, more excitement to play, and a stronger urge to gamble when presented with a scratch card that categorized push outcomes as wins compared to when presented a scratch card that did not categorize these outcomes as wins. In Study 3, participants experiencing a push outcome prior to a loss reported feeling more likely to win compared to those not experiencing a push outcome yet experiencing the same net monetary loss. In Study 4, push outcomes were found to elicit more excitement and a stronger urge to gamble compared to losses but less excitement and a weaker urge to gamble compared to wins. Overall, the present investigation suggests that push outcomes, a prevalent feature of scratch card games, can bias gambling-related judgments and increase the appeal of scratch card games.

Using Icon Arrays to Communicate Gambling Information Reduces the Appeal of Scratch Card Games

Past work has demonstrated that presenting statistical information in a foreground-background icon array can improve risk understanding, reduce decision-making biases, and decrease the salience of low-probability risks. In the present study, we assess whether presenting readily available gambling information within a foreground-background icon array influences individuals' gambling-related judgments (e.g., their perceived likelihood of winning a prize). Across two experiments (N = 1151), we find that using icon arrays to present gambling information reduces the appeal of scratch card games. That is, participants presented with gambling information in a foreground-background icon array, as opposed to a non-graphical numerical format, reported feeling less likely to win a prize, less excitement to play, and less urge to gamble on a scratch card game presented in a hypothetical gambling task. Overall, we conclude that presenting gambling information in an icon array format represents a simple yet promising tool for correcting gamblers' often overly-optimistic perceptions and reducing the appeal of negative expected value scratch card games.

Autonomic responses during Gambling: the Effect of Outcome Type and Sex in a large community sample of young adults

Psychological theories consider autonomic arousal to be a reinforcer for problem gambling. Structural characteristics such as near-misses, which are non-win events that come close to a real win, have been shown to elicit win-like responses while increasing motivation and gambling persistence. This study investigated the autonomic and subjective responses of young adults to different gambling outcomes. This study also investigated sex differences in autonomic and subjective responses to different gambling outcomes.Participants from Sweden (n = 270) performed a computerized slot machine task that produced wins, near-misses (before and after payline) and full-misses. Phasic measurements of heart rate (HR) and skin conductance responses (SCR) were recorded during gambling performance and ratings of perceived chance of winning, pleasure and motivation to play were collected following each gambling outcome.Autonomic responses differed across slot machine outcomes as indicated by HR and SCR. Compared with other gambling outcomes, near-misses elicited the largest HR accelerations, and they also elicited larger HR decelerations and SCRs relative to full-misses. Near-misses before and after payline elicited differential psychophysiological responses and subjective reports, suggesting different emotional processing of near-miss subtypes. Females showed increased SCRs and motivation following win outcomes compared with males.In conclusion, wins, near-misses and full-misses generate differential physiological and subjective responses among young adults. Autonomic responses to wins differed between male and female players, emphasizing the need to consider sex differences when investigating the role of autonomic arousal in gambling.

Rare Loot Box Rewards Trigger Larger Arousal and Reward Responses, and Greater Urge to Open More Loot Boxes

Loot boxes are a purchasable video-game feature consisting of randomly determined, in-game virtual items. Due to their chance-based nature, there is much debate as to whether they constitute a form of gambling. We sought to address this issue by examining whether players treat virtual loot box rewards in a way that parallels established reward reactivity for monetary rewards in slots play. Across two sets of experiments, we show that loot boxes containing rarer items are more valuable, arousing, rewarding and urge-inducing to players, similar to the way slots gamblers treat rare large wins in slots play. Importantly, we show in Experiment 2 that the duration of Post Reinforcement Pauses, an index of reward reactivity, are longer for boxes with rarer items. Boxes containing rarer rewards also trigger larger Skin Conductance Responses and larger force responses-indices of positive arousal. Findings of Experiment 2 also revealed that there was an increase in anticipatory arousal prior to the reveal of loot box rewards. Collectively, our results elucidate the structural similarities between loot boxes and specific gambling games. The fact that players find rarer game items hedonically rewarding and motivating has implications for potential risky or excessive loot box use for some players.

Empirical Evidence Relating to the Relative Riskiness of Scratch-Card Gambling

Scratch cards (SCs) or tickets are lottery-based games which are played by scratching to reveal numbers, letters or symbols to win prizes. Such activities have sometimes been likened to paper-based slot-machines, but relatively little systematic analyses have been conducted to examine the risk or harm associated with these activities. In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the peer-reviewed literature relating to the potential association between SCs and problem gambling and what is known from publically available data sources (e.g., prevalence studies and treatment data). Evidence is analysed within the context of the Bradford Hill Criteria. Both prevalence and peer reviewed literature suggest that SCs are less strongly associated with problem gambling than most other gambling activities. We argue that this difference is due to the nature of the products. SC gambling differs from slot-machine gambling in a number of structural ways; it is less continuous; has a slower event frequency; and, emerging literature suggests that near-miss design features are unlikely to have a significant impact upon behaviour. Thus, in our view, and based on the empirical evidence, it appears that earlier parallels between SCs and slot-machines now appear more tenuous. Nevertheless, we encourage further investigation into the potential impact of new and emerging online lottery products because of the more immersive, faster and more technology-based nature of these products.

Feasibility, Acceptance, and Safety of Metacognitive Training for Problem and Pathological Gamblers (Gambling-MCT): A Pilot Study

Approximately 90% of problem and pathological gamblers remain untreated. This treatment gap may be diminished by the implementation of low-threshold treatment programs. As cognitive distortions play a crucial role in the development and maintenance of gambling problems, interventions targeting gambling-related biases may be particularly effective. The aim of the present study was to examine the feasibility, acceptance, and safety of a novel metacognitive training for individuals with gambling problems (Gambling-MCT). Twenty-five participants were included in an uncontrolled pilot trial with two assessment points (intervention). The intervention comprised eight training modules targeting gambling-specific cognitive distortions. At baseline and post assessment, symptom severity, as measured with the PG-YBOCS, and gambling-related cognitive distortions, as measured with the GABS, were assessed. In addition, interim assessments measuring session-specific changes were conducted. Subjective appraisal was examined after each module and also post treatment. On average, participants took part in 4.16 (SD = 2.84) training sessions. Both intent-to-treat and per protocol analyses showed significant improvements on the PG-YBOCS and the GABS (d_z = 0.37–1.37). After Bonferroni correction for multiple testing, linear mixed models for the analysis of session-specific changes showed no deterioration in participants’ mental state after any of the modules. Subjective appraisal of Gambling-MCT was good. The present pilot study provides first evidence for the feasibility, acceptance, and safety of Gambling-MCT. Recruitment of participants remains challenging, emphasizing the importance of overcoming patient-related treatment barriers. Future studies need to investigate the efficacy of Gambling-MCT in randomized controlled trials.

Scratch Card Near-Miss Outcomes Increase the Urge to Gamble, but Do Not Impact Further Gambling Behaviour: A Pre-registered Replication and Extension

Scratch card near-misses, outcomes in which two out of three required jackpot symbols are uncovered, have been shown to erroneously increase the urge to continue gambling. It remains unknown if and how these outcomes influence further gambling behaviour. Previous studies examining the influence of near-misses on purchasing behaviour offered a low-stakes gamble to participants after experiencing a near-miss or a regular loss. We sought to investigate the influence of these outcomes on scratch card purchasing behaviour with a stronger test of participants’ gambling behavior by having them either “cash out” or risk all of their winnings to purchase another card. Additionally, we sought to test an original hypothesis that endorsement of the illusion of control might influence the decision to purchase additional scratch cards. We pre-registered our hypotheses, sample size, and data analysis plan. 138 subjects experienced two custom-made scratch card games that included a win on the first card (for all participants) and either a regular loss or a near-miss in the final outcome position on the second card (between-subjects manipulation). Although near-miss outcomes increased the urge to continue gambling relative to regular losses, no differences in the rates of purchasing were found between the conditions. Additionally, no support for our hypotheses concerning the influence of the illusion of control in near-miss outcomes was found. These results are discussed in terms of previous studies on scratch card gambling behaviour and subjective reactivity.

The Epistemology of the Near Miss and Its Potential Contribution in the Prevention and Treatment of Problem-Gambling

The near-miss has been considered an important factor of reinforcement in gambling behavior, and previous research has focused more on its industry-related causes and effects and less on the gaming phenomenon itself. The near-miss has usually been associated with the games of slots and scratch cards, due to the special characteristics of these games, which include the possibility of pre-manipulation of award symbols in order to increase the frequency of these "engineered" near-misses. In this paper, we argue that starting from a basic mathematical description of the classical (by pure chance) near-miss, generalizable to any game, and focusing equally on the epistemology of its constitutive concepts and their mathematical description, we can identify more precisely the fallacious elements of the near-miss cognitive effects and the inadequate perception and representation of the observational-intentional "I was that close." This approach further suggests a strategy of using non-standard mathematical knowledge of an epistemological type in problem-gambling prevention and cognitive therapies.