How to model and simulate the effects of cropping systems on population dynamics and gene flow at the landscape level: example of oilseed rape volunteers and their role for co-existence of GM and non-GM crops

Consequences of gene flow between oilseed rape (Brassica napus) and its relatives

Numerous studies have focused on the probability of occurrence of gene flow between transgenic crops and their wild relatives and the likelihood of transgene escape, which should be assessed before the commercial release of transgenic crops. This review paper focuses on this issue for oilseed rape, Brassica napus L., a species that produces huge numbers of pollen grains and seeds. We analyze separately the distinct steps of gene flow: (1) pollen and seeds as vectors of gene flow; (2) spontaneous hybridization; (3) hybrid behavior, fitness cost due to hybridization and mechanisms of introgression; (4) and fitness benefit due to transgenes (e.g. herbicide resistance and Bt toxin). Some physical, biological and molecular means of transgene containment are also described. Although hybrids and first generation progeny are difficult to identify in fields and non-crop habitats, the literature shows that transgenes could readily introgress into Brassica rapa, Brassica juncea and Brassica oleracea, while introgression is expected to be rare with Brassica nigra, Hirschfeldia incana and Raphanus raphanistrum. The hybrids grow well but produce less seed than their wild parent. The difference declines with increasing generations. However, there is large uncertainty about the evolution of chromosome numbers and recombination, and many parameters of life history traits of hybrids and progeny are not determined with satisfactory confidence to build generic models capable to really cover the wide diversity of situations. We show that more studies are needed to strengthen and organize biological knowledge, which is a necessary prerequisite for model simulations to assess the practical and evolutionary outputs of introgression, and to provide guidelines for gene flow management.

Seed spillage from grain trailers on road verges during oilseed rape harvest: an experimental survey

CONTEXT

Anthropogenic vectors enhance the natural dispersal capacity of plant seeds significantly in terms of quantity and distance. Human-mediated seed dispersal (i.e. anthropochory) greatly increases the dispersal of crop species across agroecosystems. In the case of oilseed rape (OSR), spillage of seeds from grain trailers during harvest has never been quantified.

METHODS

Our experimental approach involved establishing 85 seed trap-sites on the road verges of an agricultural area around the grain silo of Selommes (Loir-et-Cher, France). We recorded OSR spillage during harvest and applied a linear model to the data.

RESULTS

The amount of seed spilled was related positively to the area of the OSR fields served by the road, whereas the amount of seed spilled decreased with other variables, such as distance from the trap-site to the verge of the road and to the nearest field. The distance to the grain silo, through local and regional effects, affected seed loss. Local effects from fields adjacent to the road resulted in a cumulative spillage on one-lane roads. On two-lane roads, spillage was nearly constant whatever the distance to the silo due to a mixture of these local effects and of grain trailers that joined the road from more distant fields. From the data, we predicted the number of seeds lost from grain trailers on one road verge in the study area. We predicted a total spillage of 2.05 × 10(6) seeds (± 4.76 × 10(5)) along the road length, which represented a mean of 404 ± 94 seeds per m(2).

CONCLUSION

Containment of OSR seeds will always be challenging. However, seed spillage could be reduced if grain trailers were covered and filled with less seed. Reducing distances travelled between fields and silos could also limit seed loss.

Pollen- and seed-mediated transgene flow in commercial cotton seed production fields

Background

Characterizing the spatial patterns of gene flow from transgenic crops is challenging, making it difficult to design containment strategies for markets that regulate the adventitious presence of transgenes. Insecticidal Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton is planted on millions of hectares annually and is a potential source of transgene flow.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we monitored 15 non-Bt cotton (Gossypium hirsutum, L.) seed production fields (some transgenic for herbicide resistance, some not) for gene flow of the Bt cotton cry1Ac transgene. We investigated seed-mediated gene flow, which yields adventitious Bt cotton plants, and pollen-mediated gene flow, which generates outcrossed seeds. A spatially-explicit statistical analysis was used to quantify the effects of nearby Bt and non-Bt cotton fields at various spatial scales, along with the effects of pollinator abundance and adventitious Bt plants in fields, on pollen-mediated gene flow. Adventitious Bt cotton plants, resulting from seed bags and planting error, comprised over 15% of plants sampled from the edges of three seed production fields. In contrast, pollen-mediated gene flow affected less than 1% of the seed sampled from field edges. Variation in outcrossing was better explained by the area of Bt cotton fields within 750 m of the seed production fields than by the area of Bt cotton within larger or smaller spatial scales. Variation in outcrossing was also positively associated with the abundance of honey bees.

Conclusions/Significance

A comparison of statistical methods showed that our spatially-explicit analysis was more powerful for understanding the effects of surrounding fields than customary models based on distance. Given the low rates of pollen-mediated gene flow observed in this study, we conclude that careful planting and screening of seeds could be more important than field spacing for limiting gene flow.

Landscape-scale distribution and persistence of genetically modified oilseed rape (Brassica napus) in Manitoba, Canada

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE

Genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) oilseed rape (OSR; Brassica napus L.) was approved for commercial cultivation in Canada in 1995 and currently represents over 95% of the OSR grown in western Canada. After a decade of widespread cultivation, GMHT volunteers represent an increasing management problem in cultivated fields and are ubiquitous in adjacent ruderal habitats, where they contribute to the spread of transgenes. However, few studies have considered escaped GMHT OSR populations in North America, and even fewer have been conducted at large spatial scales (i.e. landscape scales). In particular, the contribution of landscape structure and large-scale anthropogenic dispersal processes to the persistence and spread of escaped GMHT OSR remains poorly understood. We conducted a multi-year survey of the landscape-scale distribution of escaped OSR plants adjacent to roads and cultivated fields. Our objective was to examine the long-term dynamics of escaped OSR at large spatial scales and to assess the relative importance of landscape and localised factors to the persistence and spread of these plants outside of cultivation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From 2005 to 2007, we surveyed escaped OSR plants along roadsides and field edges at 12 locations in three agricultural landscapes in southern Manitoba where GMHT OSR is widely grown. Data were analysed to examine temporal changes at large spatial scales and to determine factors affecting the distribution of escaped OSR plants in roadside and field edge habitats within agricultural landscapes. Additionally, we assessed the potential for seed dispersal between escaped populations by comparing the relative spatial distribution of roadside and field edge OSR.

RESULTS

Densities of escaped OSR fluctuated over space and time in both roadside and field edge habitats, though the proportion of GMHT plants was high (93-100%). Escaped OSR was positively affected by agricultural landscape (indicative of cropping intensity) and by the presence of an adjacent field planted to OSR. Within roadside habitats, escaped OSR was also strongly associated with large-scale variables, including road surface (indicative of traffic intensity) and distance to the nearest grain elevator. Conversely, within field edges, OSR density was affected by localised crop management practices such as mowing, soil disturbance and herbicide application. Despite the proximity of roadsides and field edges, there was little evidence of spatial aggregation among escaped OSR populations in these two habitats, especially at very fine spatial scales (i.e. <100 m), suggesting that natural propagule exchange is infrequent.

DISCUSSION

Escaped OSR populations were persistent at large spatial and temporal scales, and low density in a given landscape or year was not indicative of overall extinction. As a result of ongoing cultivation and transport of OSR crops, escaped GMHT traits will likely remain predominant in agricultural landscapes. While escaped OSR in field edge habitats generally results from local seeding and management activities occurring at the field-scale, distribution patterns within roadside habitats are determined in large part by seed transport occurring at the landscape scale and at even larger regional scales. Our findings suggest that these large-scale anthropogenic dispersal processes are sufficient to enable persistence despite limited natural seed dispersal. This widespread dispersal is likely to undermine field-scale management practices aimed at eliminating escaped and in-field GMHT OSR populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Agricultural transport and landscape-scale cropping patterns are important determinants of the distribution of escaped GM crops. At the regional level, these factors ensure ongoing establishment and spread of escaped GMHT OSR despite limited local seed dispersal. Escaped populations thus play an important role in the spread of transgenes and have substantial implications for the coexistence of GM and non-GM production systems.

RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES

Given the large-scale factors driving the spread of escaped transgenes, localised co-existence measures may be impracticable where they are not commensurate with regional dispersal mechanisms. To be effective, strategies aimed at reducing contamination from GM crops should be multi-scale in approach and be developed and implemented at both farm and landscape levels of organisation. Multiple stakeholders should thus be consulted, including both GM and non-GM farmers, as well as seed developers, processors, transporters and suppliers. Decisions to adopt GM crops require thoughtful and inclusive consideration of the risks and responsibilities inherent in this new technology.

Cumulative impact of GM herbicide-tolerant cropping on arable plants assessed through species-based and functional taxonomies

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE

In a gradualist approach to the introduction of crop biotechnology, the findings of experimentation at one scale are used to predict the outcome of moving to a higher scale of deployment. Movement through scales had occurred for certain genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops in the UK as far as large-scale field trials. However, the land area occupied by these trials was still <1% of the area occupied by the respective non-GM crops. Some means is needed to predict the direction and size of the effect of increasing the area of GMHT cropping on ecological variables such as the diversity among species and trophic interactions. Species-accumulation curves are examined here as a method of indicating regional-scale impacts on botanical diversity from multiple field experiments.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were used from experiments on the effect of (GMHT) crops and non-GM, or conventional, comparators in fields sown with four crop types (beet, maize, spring and winter oilseed rape) at a total of 250 sites in the UK between 2000 and 2003. Indices of biodiversity were measured in a split-field design comparing GMHT with the farmers' usual weed management. In the original analyses based on the means at site level, effects were detected on the mass of weeds in the three spring crops and the proportion of broadleaf and grass weeds in winter oilseed rape, but not on indices of plant species diversity. To explore the links between site means and total taxa, accumulation curves were constructed based on the number of plant species (a pool of around 250 species in total) and the number of plant functional types (24), inferred from the general life-history characteristics of a species.

RESULTS

Species accumulation differed between GMHT and conventional treatments in direction and size, depending on the type of crop and its conventional management. Differences were mostly in the asymptote of the curve, indicative of the maximum number of species found in a treatment, rather than the steepness of the curve. In winter oilseed rape, 8% more species were accumulated in the GMHT treatment, mainly as a result of the encouragement of grass species by the herbicide when applied in the autumn. (Overall, GMHT winter oilseed rape had strong negative effects on both the food web and the potential weed burden by increasing the biomass of grasses and decreasing that of broadleaf weeds.) In maize, 33% more species-a substantial increase-were accumulated in the GMHT than in the conventional, consistent with the latter's highly suppressive weed management using triazine herbicides. In the spring oilseed rape and beet, fewer species (around 10%) were accumulated in the GMHT than the conventional. The GMHT treatments did not remove or add any functional (life history) types, however. Differences in species accumulation between treatments appeared to be caused by loss or gain of rarer species. The generality of this effect was confirmed by simulations of species accumulation in which the species complement at each of 50 sites was drawn from a regional pool and subjected to reducing treatment at each site. Shifts in the species-accumulation parameters, comparable to those measured, occurred only when a treatment removed the rarer species at each site.

DISCUSSION

Species accumulation provided a set of simple curve-parameters that captured the net result of numerous local effects of treatments on plant species and, in some instances, the balance between grass and broadleaf types. The direction of effect was not the same in the four crops and depended on the severity of the conventional treatment and on complex interactions between season, herbicide and crop. The accumulation curves gave an indication of potential positive or negative consequences for regional species pools of replacing a conventional practice with GMHT weed management. In this and related studies, a range of indicators, through which diversity was assessed by both species and functional type, and at both site and regional scales, gave more insight into effects of GMHT treatment than provided by any one indicator.

CONCLUSIONS

Species accumulation was shown to discriminate at the regional scale between agronomic treatments that had little effect on species number at the field scale. While a comprehensive assessment of GM cropping needs to include an examination of regional effects, as here, the costs of doing this in all instances would be prohibitive. Simulations of diversity-reducing treatments could provide a theoretical framework for predicting the likely regional effects from in-field plant dynamics.

RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES

Accumulation curves potentially offer a means of linking within-site effects to regional impacts on biodiversity resulting from any change in agricultural practice. To guide empirical measurement, there is a scope to apply a methodology such as individual-based modelling at the field scale to explore the links between agronomic treatments and the relative abundance of plant types. The framework needs to be validated in practice, using species-based and functional taxonomies, the latter defined by measured rather than inferred traits.