How climate change is impacting the major yield crops of Pakistan? an exploration from long- and short-run estimation

Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Practices and Agricultural Livelihoods among Rice Farmers of the Brahmaputra Valley in Northeast India

Global climate change has seriously threatened agriculture and connected sectors, especially in developing countries like India. The Brahmaputra Valley in Assam, Northeast India, is vulnerable to climate change due to its agrarian economy, fragile geo-ecological setting, recurrent floods and droughts, and poor socioeconomic conditions of the farmers. The climate-induced hindrances faced by the rice farming community of this region and the local adaptation practices they employ have not been adequately studied. Therefore, we carried out a survey among 635 rice farmers across four agro-climatic zones of Assam, namely the Upper Brahmaputra Valley Zone, North Bank Plain Zone, Central Brahmaputra Valley Zone, and Lower Brahmaputra Valley Zone, to understand how they perceive and respond to climatic changes. The survey revealed that all the respondents have perceived an increase in ambient temperature, and 65% of the respondents have perceived a slight change in rainfall characteristics over the years. Most farmers reported adjusting the existing farming practices and livelihood choices to adapt to the changing climate. Farming adjustments were made mainly in terms of field preparation and management of water, rice variety, nutrients, and pests. Environmental variables like rainfall, flood, drought, and pest level, and socioeconomic variables like family size, education, farming experience, training, digital media exposure, and land area were found to influence farmers' adaptation choices. The findings imply that policies to strengthen flood, drought, pest management, education, land-use planning, agricultural training, and digital media applications in agriculture are needed for effective climate change adaptation in this region.

Examining the impact of farm management practices on wheat production: Does agricultural investment matter?

Over the years, the allocation of public funds toward agriculture has consistently played a pivotal role in facilitating the modernization and commercialization of the agricultural industry. Similarly, the integration of technological breakthroughs plays a pivotal role in guaranteeing the sustainability of food production, not solely for the present populace but also for subsequent generations. The present study examines the impact of public investment in agriculture and farm management practices, specifically focusing on cultivated area, fertilizer use, pesticide application, total agricultural machinery, and rural labour force on wheat production in nine provinces of China. The study encompasses the period from 1995 to 2020. This study employs advanced econometric techniques, such as second-generation unit root procedures (CADF and CIPS) and the Westerlund cointegration method, to investigate the stationarity properties and cointegration of the variables. The findings derived from the AMG and CCEMG methods indicate that public investment plays a statistically significant influence on wheat production. In the context of production-related variables, long-term wheat production is statistically and substantially influenced by the total area under cultivation, fertilizer use, and pesticide application. Besides these results, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality test reveals a unidirectional causality from agricultural machinery power consumption to wheat production. Furthermore, bidirectional causality exists between public investment, cultivated area, fertilizer use, labour, and wheat production. These results provide vital implications and valuable insights for policymakers in China, which may furnish novel policymaking options for sustainable food production through strategic investments in research and development, irrigation systems, and technological advancements.

Causality and interdependencies among sustainable development goals: assessing the nexus of agriculture, environment, and finance development

This study examines the causal relationships and interdependencies among three dimensions of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Africa: environmental factors, agricultural production (for societal aspects), and finance development (for economic aspects). The study focuses on three regions, the whole SSA (Sub-Saharan Africa, excluding the high-income countries), West-Central Africa (W-CA), and South and East Africa (S-EA), and uses data from 1970 to 2018. It uses vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response function (IRF), and analysis of causality direction methods. The findings indicate bidirectional causal effects among the three SDG dimensions in Africa. Finance development factors influence both environmental and agricultural factors, while agro-production factors significantly affect both finance development and environmental factors. This study concludes that bidirectional causal effects exist within these dimensions, confirming their interdependencies and emphasizing the need for integrating these dimensions into African sustainable development goals. Recommendations include incorporating green aspects in financing development plans and establishing regulatory authorities to effectively coordinate and control these sustainable dimensions at both the Sub-Saharan Africa and state levels, ensuring impactful greenhouse and sustainable agriculture development for sustainable food production.

Climate change adaptation strategies for sustainable water management in the Indus basin of Pakistan

Pakistan's agriculture faces water security challenges owing to insecure water supply and bad governance. The increasing food demand of the growing population and climate change vulnerability are future key threats to water sustainability. In this study, the current and future water demands as well as management strategies are evaluated for two climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the Punjab and Sindh provinces in the Indus basin of Pakistan. The RCPs are assessed for the regional climate model REMO2015, which was found to be the best-fitting model for the current situation in a preceding model comparison using Taylor diagrams. The status quo water consumption (CWR_area) is estimated to 184 km³ yr^-1, consisting of 76 % blue water (freshwater from surface water and groundwater), 16 % green water (precipitation), and 8 % grey water (required to leach out the salts from the root zone). The results of the future CWR_area indicates that RCP2.6 is more vulnerable than RCP8.5 in view of water consumption as the vegetation period of crops is reduced under RCP8.5. For both pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), CWR_area increases gradually in the midterm (2031-2070) and becomes extreme at the end of the long term (2061-2090). The future CWR_area increases up to +73 % under the RCP2.6 and up to +68 % in the RCP8.5 compared to the status quo. However, the increase in CWR_area could be restrained up to -3 % compared to the status quo through the adaptation of alternative cropping patterns. The results further show that the future CWR_area under climate change could be even decreased by up to -19 % through the collective implementation of improved irrigation technologies and optimized cropping patterns.

Climate change and livestock herders wellbeing in Pakistan: Does nexus of risk perception, adaptation and their drivers matter?

Rural people, particularly in developing nations, rely on livestock as a key source of income. In Pakistan, rural people depend profoundly on buffalo, cows, sheep, and goats to earn their livelihood. The systems of agricultural production are at risk because of the negative effects of climate change. It badly affects production and quality of milk and meat, animal health, productivity, breeding, feed, and rangelands of livestock production. Climate change risks assessment and adaptation are required to minimize losses from these effects, which are not just technical but also socioeconomically significant. Hence, based on data collected from 1080 livestock herders using a multistage sampling technique in Punjab, Pakistan this study aims to assess perceived impact of climate change on livestock production and to assess coping strategies. In addition, determinants of adaptation strategies and their effects on livestock production was also estimated. Binary Logistic Regression was used to identify the drivers of adaptation strategies. In addition, Multi Group Analysis (MGA) in Partial Least Squares Path Modelling (PLS-PM) was applied to compare adapter and non-adapter of climate change adaptation strategies. Findings indicated that there are spread of various diseases to livestock due to adverse effects of climatic variability. There was reduction in the availability of the livestock's feed. Moreover, competition of water and land resources of livestock was also increasing. Low production efficiency resulted in decline of milk yield and meat production. Likewise, mortality of livestock, increased in still births, reduction in reproductive performance, decline in animal fertility, longevity, and general fitness, decreased birthing rates, rises in age at foremost calving in beef cattle was also prevailing. There were different adaptation policies used by farmers to handle with climate change and these were influenced by several demographic, socioeconomic, and agronomic aspects. Findings indicated that nexus of risk perception, adaptation plans and their determinants are beneficial to reduce the consequences of climatic variability and it improve the wellbeing of the herders. Risk management system may be created to protect livestock against losses caused by extreme weather events by providing awareness regarding influence of climate change on livestock. Easy and cheaper credit should be provided to the farmers to manage with the vulnerabilities of climate change.

The impacts of climatic conditions on cereal production: implications for food security in Africa

Climate change is a confounding factor that affects food security in several ways. Although the analyses of earlier studies in this area were largely non-technical, new analytical techniques have been developed to comprehensively evaluate climate change patterns and their implications for food security. In this study, we use recent developments in panel econometrics, which consider cross-sectional dependence and parameter heterogeneity, to examine the effects of climatic conditions on cereal farming in Africa from 1970Q1 to 2017Q4. The results show that rainfall positively affects cereal crops, although average temperatures are typically unfavourable. In the country-specific scenarios, we observed significant variations in the influence of climatic conditions on cereal production. The causality test results show a two-way causal relationship between climatic conditions-rainfall and temperature-and cereal production. It is suggested that African governments and non-governmental organisations support farmers' adaptation to climate change by implementing policies that prioritise farmers' capacity building and ensure that extension service officers engage with farmers intensively.

An empirical assessment of the tripartite nexus between environmental pollution, economic growth, and agricultural production in Sub-Saharan African countries

A lot of attention has been paid to environmental pollution worldwide, due to the increase in anthropogenic activities. Massive investment in non-renewable energy options raises questions regarding environmental sustainability and how to maximize food and non-food output while still preserving a healthy ecosystem. To this end, the present study explores the three-way nexus between economic growth, CO₂ emission, and agriculture-value added will accounting for other control variables across a balanced panel of selected African economies from 1997 to 2020. Panel econometrics method of the generalized method of moments (two-step difference GMM) is used to obtain a robust result. From the present study, the environmental pollution model shows that economic growth significantly contributes to environmental pollution in Africa. Additionally, the food price index, capital, and FDI promote pollution, while agricultural production and labor decrease pollution. In the case of the economic growth model, the findings reveal that environmental pollution supports the growth-led pollution hypothesis. Also, the food price index and capital ameliorate economic growth, while foreign direct investments decrease economic growth. Finally, the agricultural production model indicates that economic growth increases agricultural production when the interaction term between GDPC and FDI is included in the model. In summary, the combination of explanatory variables, environmental pollution, capital, and foreign direct investment decreases agricultural production. On the contrary, the food price index and labor promote agricultural production in Africa. Furthermore, the study provides a lot of policies for authorities and stakeholders in Sub-Saharan African countries and other developing economies.

Examining the impacts of climate change and political instability on rice production: empirical evidence from Nigeria

The Nigerian government is committed to sustaining rice production to meet national demand. Nevertheless, political tension and climate-induced stressors remain crucial constraints in achieving policy targets. This study examines whether climate change and political instability significantly threaten rice production in Nigeria. First, we employed nonparametric methods to estimate the country's rainfall and temperature trends between 1980Q1 and 2015Q4. Second, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to examine the effects of climate change and political instability on rice production. The results show that while temperature has an increasing pattern, rainfall exhibits no significant trend. The findings from the ARDL estimate reveal that rice production responds negatively to temperature changes but is less sensitive to changes in rainfall. In addition, political instability adversely affects rice production in Nigeria. We argue that Nigeria's slow growth in rice production can be traced back to the impact of climate change and political tension in rice farming areas. As a result, reducing the overall degree of conflict to ensure political stability is critical to boosting the country's self-sufficiency in rice production. We also recommend that farmers be supported and trained to adopt improved rice varieties less prone to extreme climate events while supporting them with irrigation facilities to facilitate rice production.

The role of climatic changes and financial development to the ASEAN agricultural output: a novel long-run evidence for sustainable production

This paper examines the impact of climate variables and financial development on agricultural value-added and cereal production in selected Southeast Asian economies from 1970 to 2016. The current research applies second-generation advanced techniques to accomplish robust and reliable outcomes. The findings from the FM-OLS estimation disclose that climatic factors, for instance, CO2e and average temperature, impact both agricultural value-added and cereal production negatively, and financial development has an inverted U-shaped influence on both agricultural value-added and cereal production. Meanwhile, other important factors, including cropped area, income level, and rural labor force, significantly improve agricultural value-added and cereal production. Furthermore, the FM-OLS estimator's D-H panel causality test outcomes are reliable. The findings of our study reveal that both the short- and long-run risks of climatic changes to the agricultural sector pose a large-scale threat to food security in Southeast Asian economies. As a result, a robust and stable financial development in terms of governance of climate change finance in the agriculture sector must be achieved to enhance farmers' ability to adapt to current and future climate change adverse impacts.

How Has Climate Change Driven the Evolution of Rice Distribution in China?

Estimating the impact of climate change risks on rice distribution is one of the most important elements of climate risk management. This paper is based on the GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform and multi-source remote sensing data; the authors quantitatively extracted rice production distribution data in China from 1990 to 2019, analysed the evolution pattern of rice distribution and clusters and explored the driving effects between climatic and environmental conditions on the evolution of rice production distribution using the non-parametric quantile regression model. The results show that: The spatial variation of rice distribution is significant, mainly concentrated in the northeast, south and southwest regions of China; the distribution of rice in the northeast is expanding, while the distribution of rice in the south is extending northward, showing a spatial evolution trend of "north rising and south retreating". The positive effect of precipitation on the spatial distribution of rice has a significant threshold. This shows that when precipitation is greater than 800 mm, there is a significant positive effect on the spatial distribution of rice production, and this effect will increase with precipitation increases. Climate change may lead to a continuous northward shift in the extent of rice production, especially extending to the northwest of China. This paper's results will help implement more spatially targeted climate change adaptation measures for rice to cope with the changes in food production distribution caused by climate change.

Assessing the combined effects of temperature, precipitation, total ecological footprint, and carbon footprint on rice production in Nigeria: a dynamic ARDL simulations approach

The present study aims to investigate the combined effects of temperature, precipitation, ecological footprint, carbon footprints, rice plant area harvested, and fertilizer use on Nigeria's rice production by using data from 1971 to 2018. The study used the bounds test for cointegration and the novel dynamic ARDL (DYNARDL) simulation approach. The bounds test shows a long-run relationship. The empirical results show that temperature has a positive long-run effect on rice production; however, this result is insignificant. Furthermore, rainfall has a negative long-run effect on rice production. The ecological footprint has a positive long-run effect on rice production. In contrast, carbon footprint has a negative long-run effect on rice production. For non-climatic input factors, potash fertilizer has positive short-run and long-run effects on rice production, and rice area harvested has a positive but insignificant long-run effect on rice production. The study provides valuable policy directions for the policymakers in Nigeria.

The green paradox puzzle: fiscal decentralisation, environmental regulation, and agricultural carbon intensity in China

China has the highest carbon dioxide emissions worldwide. Exploring the mechanism of fiscal decentralisation on agricultural carbon intensity can help China reach its carbon peak and become carbon neutral. This study used panel data for 30 provinces in Mainland China from 2000 to 2019 and constructed a spatial Durbin model to investigate the spatial-temporal patterns and internal relationships among fiscal decentralisation, environmental regulation, and agricultural carbon intensity. The results indicated that (1) from 2000 to 2019, the agricultural carbon intensity showed a downward trend and showed a spatial pattern of 'high in the north and low in the south'. The degree of fiscal decentralisation has gradually increased, and the spatial pattern of 'high in the north and low in the south' has also emerged. The intensity of environmental regulation continues to increase, and the intensity of environmental regulation in inland areas is higher than that in coastal areas. (2) From 2000 to 2019, the global Moran index of agricultural carbon intensity showed a development trend of first rising and then falling, and the spatial correlation changed from strong to weak. Agricultural carbon intensity tends to develop from polarisation to balanced development. (3) Both fiscal decentralisation and environmental regulation can reduce agricultural carbon intensity, and environmental regulation has a negative spatial spillover effect. (4) Under the influence of fiscal decentralisation, environmental regulation is not conducive to reducing agricultural carbon intensity due to the characteristics of 'race to the bottom', causing the 'green paradox' effect. (5) Environmental regulation and fiscal decentralisation in main grain producing areas have less impact on agricultural carbon intensity than in non-main grain producing areas. Therefore, the central government should focus on optimising the fiscal decentralisation system, formulating a differentiated agricultural carbon emission control system, regulating competition among local governments, and optimising a political performance evaluation system.

Empirical analysis of rice and maize production under climate change in China

The past few decades of extreme drought and flooding caused by changing climate conditions have significantly affected agricultural production globally. This study focuses on two vital crops in China-maize and rice-and provides a comprehensive analysis of how these crops are affected by climate change-induced factors over the periods 1978Q1-2015Q4. Four key findings were obtained. First, using a nonparametric approach to estimate actual and observed trends of climatic variables, the results show a significant positive trend in average temperature from February to October. On the other hand, seasonal temperature increases during spring, summer, and autumn. Second, the results show no significant change in the monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall patterns when examined over the study period. Third, using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we find that while temperature and rainfall do not significantly support rice production in the long and short run, they play a substantial role in maize production in China. Finally, we find no significant difference in the results for rice when the quantile regression (QR) technique that controls for distributional asymmetry effects is employed. However, the impact of temperature on maize decreases at higher quantiles. Given the outcomes of our study, we argue that an advanced irrigation system is crucial and must be encouraged to minimize the effects of climate change on crop production.

Analyzing dynamic impacts of deagriculturalization on CO2 emissions in selected Asian economies: a tale of two shocks

The study investigates the symmetric and asymmetric impact of agriculturalization on CO₂ emissions in a sample of selected Asian economies for time period 1985 to 2019. For empirical analysis, the study adopted panel linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approaches. The long-run findings of panel ARDL reveal that agriculturalization contributes to environmental quality by mitigating CO₂ emissions. The panel nonlinear results clearly indicate that the effects of agriculturalization on CO₂ emissions are asymmetric. The findings demonstrate that agriculturalization improves environmental quality and de-agriculturalization mitigates environmental quality. Our empirical results are also robust to alternative model specifications. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the relevant authorities should formulate reforms in the agriculture sector that controls and reduces carbon emissions in Asian economies.

Towards a sustainable food production: modelling the impacts of climate change on maize and soybean production in Ghana

The Ghanaian economy relies heavily on maize and soybean production. The entire maize and soybean production system is low-tech, making it extremely susceptible to environmental factors. As a result, climate change and variability have an influence on agricultural production, such as maize and soybean yields. Therefore, the study's ultimate purpose was to analyze the influence of CO2 emissions, precipitation, domestic credit, and fertilizer consumption on maize and soybean productivity in Ghana by utilizing the newly constructed dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period 1990 to 2020. The findings indicated that climate change enhances maize and soybean yields in Ghana in both the short run and long run. Also, the results from the frequency domain causality showed that climate change causes maize and soybean yield in the long-run. These outcomes were robust to the use of the ordinary least squares estimator and the impulse response technique. The findings show that crop and water management strategies, as well as information availability, should be considered in food production to improve resistance to climate change and adverse climatic circumstances.

Measuring the Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production: Evidence from Northern China

The current study examines the long-run effects of climatic factors on wheat production in China's top three wheat-producing provinces (Hebei, Henan, and Shandong). The data set consists of observations from 1992 to 2020 on which several techniques, namely, fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), and canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) estimators, and Granger causality, are applied. The results reveal that climatic factors, such as temperature and rainfall, negatively influenced wheat production in Henan Province. This means that Henan Province is more vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, it is observed that climatic conditions (via temperature and rainfall) positively contributed to wheat production in Hebei Province. Moreover, temperature negatively influenced wheat production in Shandong Province, while rainfall contributed positively to wheat production. Further, the results of Granger causality reveal that climatic factors and other determinants significantly influenced wheat production in the selected provinces.

The Impact of Technological Progress and Climate Change on Food Crop Production: Evidence from Sichuan-China

Agriculture is an integral sector in China mandated to feed over 1.3 billion of its people and provide essential inputs for many industries. Sichuan, a central grain-producing province in Southwest China, is a significant supplier of cereals in the country. Yet, it is likely to be threatened by yield damages induced by climate change. Therefore, this study examines the effects of technological progress (via fertilizers usage and mechanization) and climatic changes (via temperature and precipitation) on the productivity of main food crops, such as rice (Oryza sativa), wheat (Triticum aestivum), and maize (Zea mays) in Sichuan province. We employ the generalized method of moments (GMM) model to analyze Sichuan provincial data from 1980 to 2018. Our findings show a positive nexus between fertilizers use and yields of main food crops. Only rice and maize yields are significantly improved by mechanization. Increased average temperature reduces rice and wheat yields significantly. Rainfall is unlikely to have a significant impact on agricultural production. The study suggests that the Chinese government should consider revising its strategies and policies to reduce the impact of climate change on food crop production and increase farmers' adaptive ability.

Does financial development mitigate the effects of climate variability on rice cultivation? Empirical evidence from agrarian economy

This study is the first attempt to examine the effects of changing climate and financial development on rice cultivation in the context of agrarian economy like Thailand from 1969 to 2016. The current study also uses other important variables, such as cultivated area, organic fertilizers usage, and rural labor to determine the long-term connection amid variables. In this study, we applied several econometric techniques, for instance the autoregressive distributive lag-error correction model (ARDL-ECM), vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response functions (IMFs), and variance decomposition (VARD) method to estimate the most reliable and robust outcomes. The empirical results showed that in the long- and short-run, there is a reduction in rice cultivation as temperature increase. The carbon dioxide (CO₂) positively affects rice cultivation in the long-run, while this association is negative in the short-run. The findings further revealed that in the long- and short-run, domestic credit provided by the financial sector significantly positive improved rice cultivation, while domestic credit to private sector by banks negatively affects rice cultivation. The important input factors, including cultivated area, organic fertilizers usage, and rural labor significantly positive contributed toward rice cultivation in the long- and short-run. The calculated long-run causal connection of all the studied variables with rice cultivation is validated. The estimated short-run causal relationship is unidirectional among temperature, CO₂ emissions, financial development, rural labor, and rice cultivation. In addition, our outcomes are robust and also verified by IMFs and VARD method. The study offers some important policy suggestions to increase rice production with the help of sound and well-developed financial systems and climate controls.

Dietary and Food Consumption Patterns and Their Associated Factors in the Tibetan Plateau Population: Results from 73 Counties with Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in Tibet, China

Dietary imbalances are an important cause of morbidity and mortality, both in China and globally. Abnormal element content in the natural environment and the unbalanced dietary structure of populations coexist in the Tibetan Plateau. This study analyzed the dietary and food consumption patterns of 617 Tibetan residents and their associated factors. Cluster analysis revealed three modes of dietary pattern; the food consumption scores (FCSs) of subjects in modes with relatively high consumption frequency of staple food and relatively singular dietary structure were the lowest. Although the FCSs of most subjects were acceptable (FCS > 35), subjects with relatively low FCSs were more dependent on locally cultivated highland barley that is probably low in selenium. Hierarchical linear models revealed both individual−family and regional factors were significantly related (p values < 0.05) with the food consumption of subjects as follows: age, travel time from township to county, and cultivation area of highland barley were negatively related; numbers of individuals aged 40−60 years and pork, beef, and mutton production were positively related. Individuals with secondary or higher education had higher FCSs. A single indicator may be incomprehensive in dietary and food consumption studies. For people with a relatively unbalanced diet, an analysis of the main foods they consume is critical. Dietary and food consumption patterns might have relatively large inter-regional and intra-regional variations; therefore, factors that influence it might be multi-level and multi-scale.

Tracking the effect of climatic and non-climatic elements on rice production in Pakistan using the ARDL approach

The present study aims to investigate the effect of climatic and non-climatic factors on rice production by employing an annual time series data from the period of 1970 to 2018. The study employed an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach, and the long-term equilibrium linkages between the variables have been discovered. Additionally, the study also used a regression model to determine the robustness for the authentication of results. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) methods, and the VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) technique confirmed the long-run causal relationships amid the variables. The empirical results further revealed that climatic factors including annual temperature negatively affect the rice crop production, while carbon dioxide emission positively influenced via long-run. Similarly, non-climatic factors like area under rice crop, fertilizer consumption, labor force, and water availability affect the rice production positively in the long-run analysis. Finally, the pairwise Granger causality test revealed that both climatic and non-climatic variables had a substantial impact on rice yield in Pakistan. Based on the study's findings, the government and policy makers should formulate alleviation polices to tackle with harsh effects of climate change and consistent adoption of measures to secure overall agricultural production including rice crop because it is a country stable food.