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Spence C, Kurz ME, Sharkey TC, Miller BL. Scoping Literature Review of Disease Modeling of the Opioid Crisis. J Psychoactive Drugs 2024:1-14. [PMID: 38909286 DOI: 10.1080/02791072.2024.2367617] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/28/2024] [Indexed: 06/24/2024]
Abstract
Opioid misuse continues to cause significant harm. To investigate current research, we conducted a scoping literature review of disease spread models of opioid misuse from January 2000 to December 2022. In total, 85 studies were identified and examined for the opioids modeled, model type, data sources used and model calibration and validation. Most of the studies (58%, 49) only modeled heroin; the next largest categories were prescription opioids and unspecified opioids which accounted for 9% (8) each. Most models were theoretical compartmental models (57) or applied compartmental models (21). Previously published research was the most used data source (38), and a majority of the model validation involved the researchers setting initial conditions to verify theoretical results (30). To represent typical opioid use more accurately, multiple opioids need to be incorporated into the disease spread models, and applying different modeling techniques may allow other insights into opioid misuse spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chelsea Spence
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Mary E Kurz
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Thomas C Sharkey
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Bryan Lee Miller
- Department of Sociology, Anthropology and Criminal Justice, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
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Kennedy J, Wood EG, Wu CH. Factors associated with frequent or daily use of prescription opioids among adults with chronic pain in the United States. J Int Med Res 2023; 51:3000605221149289. [PMID: 36708204 PMCID: PMC9893079 DOI: 10.1177/03000605221149289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We aimed to estimate utilization rates of prescription opioids among adults with chronic pain in the United States (US) and identify factors associated with the frequent or daily use of prescription opioids. METHODS This was a case-control analysis of the 2019 National Health Interview Survey of adults. RESULTS Over 50.2 million adults in the US reported chronic pain in the past 3 months, but only 10.5% of this group said they used prescription opioids frequently or daily to manage their pain. Adults with chronic pain were significantly more likely to use opioids if they had incomes below the federal poverty level (15.7%), relied on public health insurance (14.8%), had been hospitalized in the past year (17.8%), or rated their health as fair or poor (18.4%). The highest rates of opioid use were reported among adults with severe (24.4%) or moderate disability (18.9%). CONCLUSIONS Approximately 5.3 million adults use prescription opioids frequently or daily to manage chronic pain. These individuals should receive regular clinical assistance to manage their pain, including medication management and, when appropriate, referral to evidence-based treatment programs for opioid use disorder.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jae Kennedy
- Department of Community and Behavioral Health, Washington State University College of Medicine, Spokane, WA, USA,Jae Kennedy, Elson S Floyd College of Medicine, Washington State University, Health Education and Research Building, Room 430, 665 N Riverpoint Blvd, Spokane, WA 99202-1495, USA.
| | - Elizabeth Geneva Wood
- Department of Community and Behavioral Health, Washington State University College of Medicine, Spokane, WA, USA
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Wang Y, Liu Y, Waldron M, Houston-Ludlam AN, McCutcheon VV, Lynskey MT, Madden PAF, Bucholz KK, Heath AC, Lian M. Temporal trends in smoking and nicotine dependence in relation to co-occurring substance use in the United States, 2005-2016. Drug Alcohol Depend 2021; 226:108903. [PMID: 34304125 PMCID: PMC8878578 DOI: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2021.108903] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2021] [Revised: 05/09/2021] [Accepted: 05/22/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite an overall decline in tobacco use in the United States, secular trends of smoking and nicotine dependence with co-occurring substance use are not well characterized. METHODS We examined self-reported tobacco and other substance use in 22,245 participants age 21-59 in the United States from six waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Using Joinpoint regression, we assessed secular trends of smoking and nicotine dependence as a function of co-occurring use of alcohol, prescription opioids, marijuana/hashish, cocaine/heroin/methamphetamine, or other injection drug use. Multivariable logistic regressions were fitted to identify the potential risk factors. RESULTS During 2005-2016, the prevalence of current smoking decreased (without co-occurring substance use: 17.0 %-12.7 %; with co-occurring use of one substance: 35.3 % to 24.6 %; with co-occurring use of two or more substances: 53.8 %-42.2 %), and moderate-to-severe nicotine dependence decreased as well (8.0 %-4.2 %, 16.0 %-8.8 %, and 23.9 %-15.7 %, respectively). Smoking and nicotine dependence were more likely in those with co-occurring use of one substance (current smoking: odds ratio [OR] = 2.22, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 2.01-2.45); nicotine dependence: OR = 1.88, 95 % CI = 1.63-2.17) and in those with co-occurring use of two or more substances (current smoking: OR = 5.25, 95 % CI = 4.63-5.95; nicotine dependence: OR = 3.24, 95 % CI = 2.72-3.87). CONCLUSIONS Co-occurring substance use was associated with smaller reductions in tobacco use, over time, and with increased odds of nicotine dependence. This suggests that co-occurring substance users should be regarded as a tobacco-related disparity group and prioritized for tobacco control interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yun Wang
- Division of General Medical Sciences, Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri;,Current Institution: Department of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, School of Pharmacy, Chapman University, Irvine, California
| | - Ying Liu
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Department of Surgery, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri;,Alvin J. Siteman Cancer Center, Barnes-Jewish Hospital and Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Mary Waldron
- Department of Counseling and Educational Psychology, School of Education, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana;,Midwest Alcoholism Research Center, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | | | - Vivia V. McCutcheon
- Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Michael T. Lynskey
- Addictions Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King’s College, London, UK
| | - Pamela A. F. Madden
- Alvin J. Siteman Cancer Center, Barnes-Jewish Hospital and Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri;,Midwest Alcoholism Research Center, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri;,Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Kathleen K. Bucholz
- Midwest Alcoholism Research Center, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri;,Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Andrew C. Heath
- Alvin J. Siteman Cancer Center, Barnes-Jewish Hospital and Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri;,Midwest Alcoholism Research Center, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri;,Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Min Lian
- Division of General Medical Sciences, Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, United States; Alvin J. Siteman Cancer Center, Barnes-Jewish Hospital and Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO, United States.
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Moving From Data to Action: Necessary Next Steps to a Better Governmental Public Health Workforce. JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH MANAGEMENT AND PRACTICE 2020; 25 Suppl 2, Public Health Workforce Interests and Needs Survey 2017:S185-S187. [PMID: 30720633 PMCID: PMC6519886 DOI: 10.1097/phh.0000000000000981] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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Bethell J, Neuman MD, Bateman BT, Ladha KS, Hill A, Li G, Wijeysundera DN, Wunsch H. Association between mothers' postoperative opioid prescriptions and opioid-related events in their children: A population-based cohort study. HEALTH REPORTS 2020; 31:12-19. [PMID: 32672924 PMCID: PMC8201592 DOI: 10.25318/82-003-x202000600002-eng] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Postoperative opioid prescriptions may be associated with risks of unintentional poisoning and drug diversion in other household members. The objective of this study was to explore the association between mothers' postoperative opioid prescriptions and incidence of opioid-related events in their children (aged 1 to 24 years). DATA AND METHODS This retrospective cohort study used individually linked administrative health data from Ontario, Canada. A population-based sample of 170,156 opioid-naïve mothers (aged 15 to 64) (see Figure 1) who underwent surgery between 2013 and 2017 in Ontario was linked through birth records to create a cohort of their 283,550 opioid-naïve children (aged 1 to 24). The association between postoperative opioid analgesic prescriptions filled by mothers within seven days of discharge after surgery and opioid-related events (emergency department presentations or inpatient admissions for opioid poisoning, or mental and behavioural disorders attributable to opioid use) in their children within one year of their mother's discharge was assessed. RESULTS Overall, 60.4% of the children in the cohort had a mother who filled a postoperative opioid prescription. The incidence of opioid-related events in children in the year after a mother's surgery was low overall (n=36/283,550, 0.01%), but higher among children whose mother filled a postoperative opioid prescription (n=29/171,139, 0.02%, vs. n=7/112,411, 0.01%, p=0.02), including in an analysis adjusting for child's age, mother's age, rural residence, neighbourhood income quintile and mother's Charlson comorbidity index score (adjusted odds ratio, 2.42 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05 to 5.54], p=0.04). DISCUSSION Postoperative opioid prescriptions for mothers may contribute to opioid-related events in their children. These findings further underscore the importance of safe, effective opioid prescribing, as well as of patient and public education about the use, storage and disposal of these medications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Bethell
- Sunnybrook Research Institute, ICES, the Toronto Rehabilitation Institute at the University Health Network, and the Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation at the University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario
| | - Mark D Neuman
- The Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care, the Center for Perioperative Outcomes Research and Transformation, and the Center for Pharmacoepidemiology Research and Training at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, and the Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
| | - Brian T Bateman
- The Department of Anesthesia, Perioperative, and Pain Medicine, and the Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics in the Department of Medicine at Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Karim S Ladha
- The Department of Anesthesia at St. Michael's Hospital, and the Department of Anesthesia at the University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario
| | - Andrea Hill
- Sunnybrook Research Institute, and the Department of Critical Care Medicine, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Ontario
| | - Guohua Li
- The Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, and the Department of Anesthesiology, College of Physicians and Surgeons at Columbia University, and the Center for Injury Epidemiology and Prevention, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, New York
| | - Duminda N Wijeysundera
- ICES, the Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation and the Department of Anesthesia at the University of Toronto, and the Department of Anesthesia at St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario
| | - Hannah Wunsch
- Sunnybrook Research Institute, ICES, the Department of Anesthesia at the University of Toronto, the Department of Critical Care Medicine at the Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, and the Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine at the University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario
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Sharareh N, Sabounchi SS, McFarland M, Hess R. Evidence of Modeling Impact in Development of Policies for Controlling the Opioid Epidemic and Improving Public Health: A Scoping Review. Subst Abuse 2019; 13:1178221819866211. [PMID: 31447562 PMCID: PMC6689912 DOI: 10.1177/1178221819866211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2019] [Accepted: 07/05/2019] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Opioid addiction and overdose rates are reaching unprecedented levels in the U.S., with around 47,736 overdose deaths in 2017. Many stakeholders affect the opioid epidemic, including government entities, healthcare providers and policymakers, and opioid users. Simulation and conceptual modeling can help us understand the dynamics of the opioid epidemic by simplifying the real world and informing policymakers about different health interventions that could reduce the deaths caused by opioid overdose in the United States every year. OBJECTIVES To conduct a scoping review of simulation and conceptual models that propose policies capable of controlling the opioid epidemic. We demonstrate the strengths and limitations of these models and provide a framework for further improvement of future decision support tools. METHODS Using the methodology of a scoping review, we identified articles published after 2000 from eight electronic databases to map the literature that uses simulation and conceptual modeling in developing public health policies to address the opioid epidemic. RESULTS We reviewed 472 papers of which 14 were appropriate for inclusion. Each used either system dynamics simulation modeling, mathematical modeling, conceptual modeling, or agent-based modeling. All included studies tested and proposed strategies to improve health outcomes related to the opioid epidemic. Factors considered in the models included physicians prescribing opioids, trafficking, users recruiting new users, and doctor shopping; no model investigated the impact of age and spatial factors on the dynamics of the epidemic. Key findings from these studies were (1) prevention of opioid initiation is better than treatment of opioid addiction, (2) the analysis of an intervention's impact should include both benefits and harms, and (3) interventions with short-term benefits might have a counterproductive impact on the epidemic in long run. CONCLUSIONS While most studies examined the role of prescription opioids and trafficking on this epidemic, the transition of patients from prescription opioid use to nonprescription use including heroin and synthetic opioids such as fentanyl impacts the system significantly and results in an epidemic with quite different characteristics than what it had a decade ago. We recommend including the impact of age and geographic location on the opioid epidemic using modeling methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nasser Sharareh
- Health System Innovation and Research Division, Population Health Sciences Department, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
| | - Shabnam S Sabounchi
- College of Community and Public Affairs, the State University of New York at Binghamton, Binghamton, NY, USA
| | - Mary McFarland
- Eccles Health Science Library, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
| | - Rachel Hess
- Health System Innovation and Research Division, Population Health Sciences Department, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
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Todd A, Akhter N, Cairns JM, Kasim A, Walton N, Ellison A, Chazot P, Eldabe S, Bambra C. The Pain Divide: a cross-sectional analysis of chronic pain prevalence, pain intensity and opioid utilisation in England. BMJ Open 2018; 8:e023391. [PMID: 30206064 PMCID: PMC6144392 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-023391] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Our central research question was, in England, are geographical inequalities in opioid use driven by health need (pain)? To answer this question, our study examined: (1) if there are regional inequalities in rates of chronic pain prevalence, pain intensity and opioid utilisation in England; (2) if opioid use and chronic pain are associated after adjusting for individual-level and area-level confounders. DESIGN Cross-sectional study design using data from the Health Survey for England 2011. SETTING England. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES Chronic pain prevalence, pain intensity and opioid utilisation. PARTICIPANTS Participant data relating to chronic pain prevalence, pain intensity and opioid usage data were obtained at local authority level from the Health Survey for England 2011; in total, 5711 respondents were included in our analysis. METHODS Regional and local authority data were mapped, and a generalised linear model was then used to explore the relationships between the data. The model was adjusted to account for area-level and individual-level variables. RESULTS There were geographical variations in chronic pain prevalence, pain intensity and opioid utilisation across the English regions-with evidence of a 'pain divide' between the North and the South, whereby people in the North of England more likely to have 'severely limiting' or 'moderately limiting' chronic pain. The intensity of chronic pain was significantly and positively associated with the use of opioid analgesics. CONCLUSIONS There are geographical differences in chronic pain prevalence, pain intensity and opioid utilisation across England-with evidence of a 'pain divide'. Given the public health concerns associated with the long-term use of opioid analgesics-and their questionable activity in the management of chronic pain-more guidance is needed to support prescribers in the management of chronic pain, so the initiation of opioids can be avoided.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam Todd
- Institute of Health and Society, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Fuse – the UKCRC Centre for Translational Research in Public Health, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- School of Pharmacy, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Nasima Akhter
- Fuse – the UKCRC Centre for Translational Research in Public Health, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Wolfson Research Institute for Health and Wellbeing, Durham University, Durham, UK
| | - Joanne-Marie Cairns
- Institute of Health and Society, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Fuse – the UKCRC Centre for Translational Research in Public Health, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- School of Public Health Midwifery and Social Work, Canterbury Christchurch University, Canterbury, Durham, UK
| | - Adetayo Kasim
- Fuse – the UKCRC Centre for Translational Research in Public Health, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Wolfson Research Institute for Health and Wellbeing, Durham University, Durham, UK
| | - Nick Walton
- Institute of Health and Society, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Fuse – the UKCRC Centre for Translational Research in Public Health, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- School of Pharmacy, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Amanda Ellison
- Wolfson Research Institute for Health and Wellbeing, Durham University, Durham, UK
- Department of Psychology, Durham University, Durham, UK
| | - Paul Chazot
- Wolfson Research Institute for Health and Wellbeing, Durham University, Durham, UK
- Department of Biosciences, Durham University, Durham, UK
| | - Sam Eldabe
- Institute of Health and Society, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Department of Pain and Anaesthesia, The James Cook University Hospital, Middlesbrough, UK
| | - Clare Bambra
- Institute of Health and Society, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Fuse – the UKCRC Centre for Translational Research in Public Health, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
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Martinez C. Cracking the Code: Using Data to Combat the Opioid Crisis. THE JOURNAL OF LAW, MEDICINE & ETHICS : A JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF LAW, MEDICINE & ETHICS 2018; 46:454-471. [PMID: 30146995 DOI: 10.1177/1073110518782953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
The goal of this article is to understand the value of data and to call for efforts to explore improved data sharing and collection among local, state, and federal agencies. It discusses the data available and existing barriers to sharing it. It also looks at examples of data sharing initiatives and analysis, such as mapping and visualization tools. The article then examines relevant regulations and calls for reforms. Finally, the article considers objections, including privacy interests, data security, and the costs and benefits of data sharing initiatives.
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Wakeland W, Nielsen A, Geissert P. Dynamic model of nonmedical opioid use trajectories and potential policy interventions. THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF DRUG AND ALCOHOL ABUSE 2015; 41:508-18. [PMID: 25982491 PMCID: PMC4685710 DOI: 10.3109/00952990.2015.1043435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioid analgesics (POA) increased dramatically over the past two decades and remains a major health problem in the United States, contributing to over 16 000 accidental poisoning deaths in 2010. OBJECTIVES To create a systems-oriented theory/model to explain the historical behaviors of interest, including the various populations of nonmedical opioid users and accidental overdose mortality within those populations. To use the model to explore policy interventions including tamper-resistant drug formulations and strategies for reducing diversion of opioid medicines. METHODS A system dynamics model was constructed to represent the population of people who initiate nonmedical POA usage. The model incorporates use trajectories including development of use disorders, transitions from reliance on informal sharing to paying for drugs, transition from oral administration to tampering to facilitate non-oral routes of administration, and transition to heroin use by some users, as well as movement into and out of the population through quitting and mortality. Empirical support was drawn from national surveys (NSDUH, TEDS, MTF, and ARCOS) and published studies. RESULTS The model was able to replicate the patterns seen in the historical data for each user population, and the associated overdose deaths. Policy analysis showed that both tamper-resistant formulations and interventions to reduce informal sharing could significantly reduce nonmedical user populations and overdose deaths in the long term, but the modeled effect sizes require additional empirical support. CONCLUSION Creating a theory/model that can explain system behaviors at a systems level scale is feasible and facilitates thorough evaluation of policy interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wayne Wakeland
- a Systems Science Program, Portland State University , Portland , Oregon , USA
| | - Alexandra Nielsen
- a Systems Science Program, Portland State University , Portland , Oregon , USA
| | - Peter Geissert
- a Systems Science Program, Portland State University , Portland , Oregon , USA
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