Criminal Use of Assault Weapons and High-Capacity Semiautomatic Firearms: an Updated Examination of Local and National Sources

Public Mass Shootings: Counterfactual Trend Analysis of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban

Background

Assault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects.

Objective

This study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022.

Methods

We used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995-2004) and the period after its removal (2005-2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place.

Results

The overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB.

Conclusions

The FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings.

Nearly 20 Years Since the Federal Ban: Can State-Level Assault Weapon Prohibitions Fill the Void? Comparative Analysis of Case Fatality and Assault Weapon Recovery in States With and Without an Assault Weapon Ban

INTRODUCTION

Few states established assault weapon bans (AWBs) after the federal AWB expired. The effectiveness of state AWBs as well as neighboring state legislation, in reducing the local prevalence of assault weapons (AWs) or in reducing overall shooting lethality is unknown.

METHODS

We queried the Gun Violence Archive (2014-2021) to identify US firearm injuries and fatalities. Shooting case fatality rates were compared among states with and without AWBs, as reported in the State Firearm Laws Database. Data on recovered firearms was obtained from the ATF Firearms Trace Database and used to estimate weapon prevalence. Recovered firearms were classified as AWs based on caliber (7.62 mm, 5.56 mm, 0.223 cal). We performed spatially weighted linear regression models, with fixed effects for state and year to assess the association between geographically clustered state legislation and firearm outcomes.

RESULTS

From 2014 to 2021, the US shooting victim case fatality rate was 8.06% and did not differ among states with and without AWBs. The proportion of AWs to total firearms was 5.0% in states without an AWB and 6.0% in states with an AWB (mean difference [95% CI] = -0.8% [-1.6% to -0.2%], P = 0.03). Most recovered firearms in AWB states originated from non-AWB states. On adjusted models, there was no association between state-level AWB and firearm case fatality; however, adjacency to states with an AWB was associated with lower case fatality (P < 0.001). Clustered AWB states with shared borders had lower AW prevalence and fatality rates than the rest of the US.

CONCLUSIONS

Isolated state AWBs are not inversely associated with shooting case fatality rates nor the prevalence of AWs, but AWBs among multiple neighboring states may be associated with both outcomes.

Firearm Ownership, Defensive Gun Usage, and Support for Gun Control: Does Knowledge Matter?

Recent incidents of gun violence have raised questions about public access to "military-style" firearms and the need for more-restrictive forms of gun control. Proponents of more-restrictive forms of gun regulation argue that such measures will help combat the disproportionately high rates of gun crime in the United States. Opponents believe that such measures infringe upon constitutional rights and hinder law-abiding citizens' abilities to adequately defend themselves. This project explores the characteristics of gun owners living in Pennsylvania and public perceptions of three different categories of gun control. Results indicate that most gun owners have received some form of training and take appropriate safety precautions with their firearms. Further, 1 in 4 gun owners reported using their firearm in self-defense at some point in their life. Regarding gun control, most participants favored strategies intended to keep guns away from dangerous and "at risk" people, such as required background checks for all types of gun purchases, mental health screenings, and mandatory gun education. However, most participants opposed complete firearm bans. Among those who are the least supportive of such polices are those who are the most knowledgeable about gun crime, gun legislation, and gun functioning. Policy implications are discussed within.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12103-021-09644-7.

Firearm injuries during legal interventions Nationwide analysis

INTRODUCTION

There is limited literature on firearm injuries during legal interventions. The purpose of this study was to examine the epidemiology, injury characteristics, and outcomes of both civilians and law enforcement officials (LEOs) who sustained firearm injuries over the course of legal action.

METHODS

Retrospective observational study using data from the National Trauma Data Bank (2015-2017) was performed. All patients who were injured by firearms during legal interventions were identified using the International Classification of Disease, Tenth Revision, external cause of injury codes. The study groups were injured civilian suspects and police officers. Demographics, injury characteristics, and outcomes were analyzed and compared between the groups. Primary outcomes were the clinical and injury characteristics among the victims.

RESULTS

A total of 1,411 patients were included in the study, of which 1,091 (77.3%) were civilians, 289 officers (20.5%), and 31 bystanders (2.2%). Overall, 95.2% of patients were male. Compared with LEOs, civilians were younger (31 vs. 34 years, p = 0.007) and more severely injured (median Injury Severity Score, 13 vs. 10 [p = 0.005]; Injury Severity Score >15, 44.4% vs. 37.1% [p = 0.025]). Civilians were more likely to sustain severe (Abbreviated Injury Scale, ≥3) intra-abdominal injuries (26.8% vs. 16.1%, p < 0.001) and spinal fractures (13.0% vs. 6.9%, p = 0.004). In-hospital mortality and overall complication rate were similar between the groups (mortality: civilians, 24.7% vs. LEOs, 27.3% [p = 0.360]; overall complications: civilians, 10.3% vs. LEOs, 8.4% [p = 0.338]).

CONCLUSION

Firearm injuries during legal interventions are associated with significant injury burden and a higher mortality than the reported mortality in gunshot wounds among civilians. The mortality and overall complication rate were similar between civilian suspects and law enforcement officials.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiologic, level IV.

Law and Policy as Tools in Healthy People 2030

Laws and policies are critical determinants of health and well-being. They can encourage positive behaviors and discourage harmful behaviors, and they can enhance or worsen health, health equity, health disparities, and health literacy. Recognizing their contribution to conditions in the environments in which people are born, live, learn, work, play, worship, and age, and people's experiences of these conditions, the US Department of Health and Human Services considered the roles of law and policy throughout its development of Healthy People 2030. Laws and policies often interrelate, but they have different purposes. A law is an established procedure, standard, or system of rules that members of a society must follow. A policy is a decision or set of decisions meant to address a long-term purpose or problem. Healthy People 2030 offers an opportunity for users in diverse sectors and at all levels to use laws and policies to support or inform the initiative's implementation, address health disparities and health inequities, and improve health and well-being in this decade. Introducing new laws and policies or rescinding existing ones to achieve Healthy People 2030 goals offers a chance to rigorously assess outcomes and weigh the balance of good outcomes against unintended consequences.

Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

BACKGROUND

Public mass shootings are a significant public health problem that require ongoing systematic surveillance to test and inform policies that combat gun injuries. Although there is widespread agreement that something needs to be done to stop public mass shootings, opinions on exactly which policies that entails vary, such as the prohibition of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine if the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) (1994-2004) reduced the number of public mass shootings while it was in place.

METHODS

We extracted public mass shooting surveillance data from the Violence Project that matched our inclusion criteria of 4 or more fatalities in a public space during a single event. We performed regression discontinuity analysis, taking advantage of the imposition of the FAWB, which included a prohibition on large-capacity magazines in addition to assault weapons. We estimated a regression model of the 5-year moving average number of public mass shootings per year for the period of 1966 to 2019 controlling for population growth and homicides in general, introduced regression discontinuities in the intercept and a time trend for years coincident with the federal legislation (ie, 1994-2004), and also allowed for a differential effect of the homicide rate during this period. We introduced a second set of trend and intercept discontinuities for post-FAWB years to capture the effects of termination of the policy. We used the regression results to predict what would have happened from 1995 to 2019 had there been no FAWB and also to project what would have happened from 2005 onward had it remained in place.

RESULTS

The FAWB resulted in a significant decrease in public mass shootings, number of gun deaths, and number of gun injuries. We estimate that the FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade the ban was in place. A continuation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public mass shootings that killed 339 people and injured an additional 1139 people.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the utility of public health surveillance on gun violence. Surveillance informs policy on whether a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines reduces public mass shootings. As society searches for effective policies to prevent the next mass shooting, we must consider the overwhelming evidence that bans on assault weapons and/or large-capacity magazines work.

Public Opinion on Firearm Injury Prevention Proposals in California

This survey study assesses public opinion on 2 firearm injury prevention proposals in California overall and by firearm ownership status.

The Effect of Large-Capacity Magazine Bans on High-Fatality Mass Shootings, 1990-2017

Objectives. To evaluate the effect of large-capacity magazine (LCM) bans on the frequency and lethality of high-fatality mass shootings in the United States.Methods. We analyzed state panel data of high-fatality mass shootings from 1990 to 2017. We first assessed the relationship between LCM bans overall, and then federal and state bans separately, on (1) the occurrence of high-fatality mass shootings (logit regression) and (2) the deaths resulting from such incidents (negative binomial analysis). We controlled for 10 independent variables, used state fixed effects with a continuous variable for year, and accounted for clustering.Results. Between 1990 and 2017, there were 69 high-fatality mass shootings. Attacks involving LCMs resulted in a 62% higher mean average death toll. The incidence of high-fatality mass shootings in non-LCM ban states was more than double the rate in LCM ban states; the annual number of deaths was more than 3 times higher. In multivariate analyses, states without an LCM ban experienced significantly more high-fatality mass shootings and a higher death rate from such incidents.Conclusions. LCM bans appear to reduce both the incidence of, and number of people killed in, high-fatality mass shootings.

Firearm ownership in California: A latent class analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether firearm ownership and ownership-related motivations and practices can be classified into reasonably distinct types.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data on firearm owners (n=429) were obtained from the 2018 California Safety and Well-Being Survey, a state-representative web-based survey. We conducted a latent class analysis using six self-reported indicators of firearm ownership: (1) number of firearms owned, (2) types of firearms owned, (3) primary reason for firearm ownership, (4) firearm storage, (5) loaded handgun carrying and (6) high-capacity magazine ownership.

RESULTS

We identified five markedly different classes of firearm ownership. There were two classes of single-firearm owners and three classes of multiple-firearm owners. Only members of one class (9% of owners) were likely to have carried a loaded handgun and to own high-capacity magazines or assault-type weapons. Members of this class were also likely to own 5+ firearms, own for protection against people, and store a firearm in the least secure manner (loaded and unlocked).

CONCLUSION

There were distinct classes of firearm ownership in California, and all higher-risk behaviours studied were exhibited disproportionately by members of a single class. This latent class structure, which may help identify higher-risk groups of firearm owners, could inform future research on risk assessment and on focused interventions to reduce firearm injury and death.

Gunshot victimisations resulting from high-volume gunfire incidents in Minneapolis: findings and policy implications

Laws restricting large ammunition magazines for semiautomatic weapons are intended to reduce firearm deaths and injuries by preventing gun attacks involving high numbers of shots. However, data on shootings from high-volume gunfire (HVG) incidents are extremely limited. This study examined gunshot victimisations resulting from HVG attacks (>10 shots fired) using police data on shootings in Minneapolis, Minnesota from January through August 2014 (n=135 to 167). Shots fired estimates were generated from police reports based on physical evidence recovered, reported gunshot victims, and accounts of witnesses and actors. HVG incidents accounted for 20%-28% of victims and were more likely to involve multiple victims. Most HVG cases seemed likely to have involved a gun with a large capacity magazine though these data were limited. Restricting large ammunition magazines may have greater potential for preventing shootings than previously estimated, but further studies of this issue are needed.