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Zardini A, Menegale F, Gobbi A, Manica M, Guzzetta G, d'Andrea V, Marziano V, Trentini F, Montarsi F, Caputo B, Solimini A, Marques-Toledo C, Wilke ABB, Rosà R, Marini G, Arnoldi D, Pastore Y Piontti A, Pugliese A, Capelli G, Della Torre A, Teixeira MM, Beier JC, Rizzoli A, Vespignani A, Ajelli M, Merler S, Poletti P. Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2024; 8:e30-e40. [PMID: 38199719 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00252-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 10/19/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of the spatiotemporal distribution of different mosquito vector species and the associated risk of transmission of arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks and reducing the number of human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified the abundance of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti and the local transmission potential for three arboviral infections at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution in areas where no entomological surveillance is available. METHODS We developed a computational model to quantify the daily abundance of Aedes mosquitoes, leveraging temperature and precipitation records. The model was calibrated on mosquito surveillance data collected in 115 locations in Europe and the Americas between 2007 and 2018. Model estimates were used to quantify the reproduction number of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya in Europe and the Americas, at a high spatial resolution. FINDINGS In areas colonised by both Aedes species, A aegypti was estimated to be the main vector for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya, being associated with a higher estimate of R0 when compared with A albopictus. Our estimates highlighted that these arboviruses were endemic in tropical and subtropical countries, with the highest risks of transmission found in central America, Venezuela, Colombia, and central-east Brazil. A non-negligible potential risk of transmission was also estimated for Florida, Texas, and Arizona (USA). The broader ecological niche of A albopictus could contribute to the emergence of chikungunya outbreaks and clusters of dengue autochthonous cases in temperate areas of the Americas, as well as in mediterranean Europe (in particular, in Italy, southern France, and Spain). INTERPRETATION Our results provide a comprehensive overview of the transmission potential of arboviral diseases in Europe and the Americas, highlighting areas where surveillance and mosquito control capacities should be prioritised. FUNDING EU and Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza Extended Partnership initiative on Emerging Infectious Diseases); EU (Horizon 2020); Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Progetti di ricerca di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale programme); Brazilian National Council of Science, Technology and Innovation; Ministry of Health, Brazil; and Foundation of Research for Minas Gerais, Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Agnese Zardini
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | - Francesco Menegale
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | - Andrea Gobbi
- Digital Industry Center, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | - Mattia Manica
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy
| | - Giorgio Guzzetta
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy
| | - Valeria d'Andrea
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
| | | | - Filippo Trentini
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy; Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy
| | - Fabrizio Montarsi
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Padua, Italy
| | - Beniamino Caputo
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy
| | - Angelo Solimini
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy
| | - Cecilia Marques-Toledo
- Department of Biochemistry and Immunology, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - André B B Wilke
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Roberto Rosà
- Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy; Center Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Giovanni Marini
- Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Daniele Arnoldi
- Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Ana Pastore Y Piontti
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Andrea Pugliese
- Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | - Gioia Capelli
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Padua, Italy
| | - Alessandra Della Torre
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, University of Rome La Sapienza, Rome, Italy
| | - Mauro M Teixeira
- Department of Biochemistry and Immunology, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - John C Beier
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Annapaola Rizzoli
- Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Alessandro Vespignani
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Marco Ajelli
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Stefano Merler
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy
| | - Piero Poletti
- Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Epilab-Joint Research Unit, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Fondazione Bruno Kessler Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy.
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2
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Barriga Rubio RH, Otero M. Stochastic modeling of Dalbulus maidis, vector of maize diseases. Theor Popul Biol 2023; 154:51-66. [PMID: 37669715 DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2023.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2022] [Revised: 08/01/2023] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 09/07/2023]
Abstract
We developed a simple linear stochastic model for Dalbulus maidis dependent exclusively on temperature, whose parameters were determined from published field and laboratory studies performed at different temperatures. This model takes into account the principal stages and events of the life cycle of this pest, which is vector of maize diseases. We implemented the effect of distributed delays or Linear Chain Trick (LCT) considering a fixed number of sub-stages for egg and nymph stages of Dalbulus maidis in order to accurately represent what is observed in nature. A sensitivity analysis allows us to observe that the speed of the dynamics is sensitive to changes in the development rates, but not to the longevity of each stage or the fecundity, which almost exclusively affect insect abundance. We used our model to study its predictive and explanatory capacity considering a published experiment as a case study. Although the simulation results show a behavior qualitatively equivalent to that observed in the experimental results it is not possible to explain accurately the magnitude, nor the times in which the maximum abundances of second-generation nymphs and adults are reached. Therefore, we evaluated three possible scenarios for the insect that allow us to glimpse some of the advantages of having a computational model in order to find out what processes, taken into account in the model, may explain the differences observed between published experimental results and model results. The three proposed scenarios, based on variations in the parameterized rates of the model, can satisfactorily explain the experimental observations. We observed that in order to better simulate the experimental results it is not necessary to modify fecundity or mortality rates. However, it is necessary to accelerate the average development rates of our model by 20 to 40 %, compatible with extreme values of the rates close to the upper edges of the confidence bands of our parameterization rate curves, according to insects with faster development rates already reported in literature.
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Affiliation(s)
- R H Barriga Rubio
- Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - M Otero
- Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires (IFIBA), FCEN-UBA and CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
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3
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Vásquez VN, Kueppers LM, Rašić G, Marshall JM. wMel replacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term change. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 2023; 13:848-855. [PMID: 37546688 PMCID: PMC10403361 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/23/2023] [Indexed: 08/08/2023]
Abstract
Rising temperatures are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking Wolbachia bacterium. Because the most widely used strain, wMel, is adversely affected by heat stress, we examined how global warming may influence wMel-based replacement. We simulated interventions in two locations with successful field trials using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections and historical temperature records, integrating empirical data on wMel's thermal sensitivity into a model of Aedes aegypti population dynamics to evaluate introgression and persistence over one year. We show that in Cairns, Australia, climatic futures necessitate operational adaptations for heatwaves exceeding two weeks. In Nha Trang, Vietnam, projected heatwaves of three weeks and longer eliminate wMel under the most stringent assumptions of that symbiont's thermal limits. We conclude that this technology is generally robust to near-term (2030s) climate change. Accelerated warming may challenge this in the 2050s and beyond.
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Affiliation(s)
- Váleri N. Vásquez
- Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA USA
- Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences, College of Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA USA
| | - Lara M. Kueppers
- Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA USA
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA USA
| | - Gordana Rašić
- Mosquito Genomics, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
| | - John M. Marshall
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA USA
- Innovative Genomics Institute, University of California, Berkeley, CA USA
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4
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Wilke ABB, Mhlanga A, Kummer AG, Vasquez C, Moreno M, Petrie WD, Rodriguez A, Vitek C, Hamer GL, Mutebi JP, Ajelli M. Diel activity patterns of vector mosquito species in the urban environment: Implications for vector control strategies. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011074. [PMID: 36701264 PMCID: PMC9879453 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011074] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Mathematical models have been widely used to study the population dynamics of mosquitoes as well as to test and validate the effectiveness of arbovirus outbreak responses and mosquito control strategies. The objective of this study is to assess the diel activity of mosquitoes in Miami-Dade, Florida, and Brownsville, Texas, the most affected areas during the Zika outbreak in 2016-2017, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated adulticide treatments on local mosquito populations. To assess variations in the diel activity patterns, mosquitoes were collected hourly for 96 hours once a month from May through November 2019 in Miami-Dade County, Florida, and Brownsville, Texas. We then performed a PERMANOVA followed by a SIMPER analysis to assess whether the abundance and species richness significantly varies at different hours of the day. Finally, we used a mathematical model to simulate the population dynamics of 5 mosquito vector species and evaluate the effectiveness of the simulated adulticide applications. A total of 14,502 mosquitoes comprising 17 species were collected in Brownsville and 10,948 mosquitoes comprising 19 species were collected in Miami-Dade County. Aedes aegypti was the most common mosquito species collected every hour in both cities and peaking in abundance in the morning and the evening. Our modeling results indicate that the effectiveness of adulticide applications varied greatly depending on the hour of the treatment. In both study locations, 9 PM was the best time for adulticide applications targeting all mosquito vector species; mornings/afternoons (9 AM- 5 PM) yielded low effectiveness, especially for Culex species, while at night (12 AM- 6 AM) the effectiveness was particularly low for Aedes species. Our results indicate that the timing of adulticide spraying interventions should be carefully considered by local authorities based on the ecology of the target mosquito species in the focus area.
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Affiliation(s)
- André B. B. Wilke
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, Indiana, United States of America
- * E-mail: (A.B.B.W.); (M.A.)
| | - Adequate Mhlanga
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Allisandra G. Kummer
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Chalmers Vasquez
- Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control Division, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Maday Moreno
- Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control Division, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - William D. Petrie
- Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control Division, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Art Rodriguez
- Public Health Department, City of Brownsville, Brownsville, Texas, United States of America
| | - Christopher Vitek
- Center for Vector-Borne Diseases, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Texas, United States of America
| | - Gabriel L. Hamer
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - John-Paul Mutebi
- Arboviral Diseases Branch (ADB), Division of Vector-Borne Diseases (DVBD), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Marco Ajelli
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, Indiana, United States of America
- * E-mail: (A.B.B.W.); (M.A.)
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5
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Sharma Y, Bennett JB, Rašić G, Marshall JM. Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic parameters of mosquitoes. PLoS Comput Biol 2022; 18:e1010755. [PMID: 36508463 PMCID: PMC9779664 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010755] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2022] [Revised: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 11/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods have recently been used to infer demographic parameters such as census population size and survival for fish of interest to fisheries and conservation. These methods have advantages over traditional mark-recapture methods as the mark is genetic, removing the need for physical marking and recapturing that may interfere with parameter estimation. For mosquitoes, the spatial distribution of close-kin pairs has been used to estimate mean dispersal distance, of relevance to vector-borne disease transmission and novel biocontrol strategies. Here, we extend CKMR methods to the life history of mosquitoes and comparable insects. We derive kinship probabilities for mother-offspring, father-offspring, full-sibling and half-sibling pairs, where an individual in each pair may be a larva, pupa or adult. A pseudo-likelihood approach is used to combine the marginal probabilities of all kinship pairs. To test the effectiveness of this approach at estimating mosquito demographic parameters, we develop an individual-based model of mosquito life history incorporating egg, larva, pupa and adult life stages. The simulation labels each individual with a unique identification number, enabling close-kin relationships to be inferred for sampled individuals. Using the dengue vector Aedes aegypti as a case study, we find the CKMR approach provides unbiased estimates of adult census population size, adult and larval mortality rates, and larval life stage duration for logistically feasible sampling schemes. Considering a simulated population of 3,000 adult mosquitoes, estimation of adult parameters is accurate when ca. 40 adult females are sampled biweekly over a three month period. Estimation of larval parameters is accurate when adult sampling is supplemented with ca. 120 larvae sampled biweekly over the same period. The methods are also effective at detecting intervention-induced increases in adult mortality and decreases in population size. As the cost of genome sequencing declines, CKMR holds great promise for characterizing the demography of mosquitoes and comparable insects of epidemiological and agricultural significance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yogita Sharma
- Divisions of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Jared B. Bennett
- Biophysics Graduate Group, Division of Biological Sciences, College of Letters and Science, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Gordana Rašić
- Mosquito Genomics, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - John M. Marshall
- Divisions of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- Innovative Genomics Institute, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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6
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Reid W, Williams AE, Sanchez-Vargas I, Lin J, Juncu R, Olson KE, Franz AWE. Assessing single-locus CRISPR/Cas9-based gene drive variants in the mosquito Aedes aegypti via single-generation crosses and modeling. G3 (BETHESDA, MD.) 2022; 12:jkac280. [PMID: 36250791 PMCID: PMC9713460 DOI: 10.1093/g3journal/jkac280] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Accepted: 10/09/2022] [Indexed: 07/29/2023]
Abstract
The yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti is a major vector of arthropod-borne viruses, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. A novel approach to mitigate arboviral infections is to generate mosquitoes refractory to infection by overexpressing antiviral effector molecules. Such an approach requires a mechanism to spread these antiviral effectors through a population, for example, by using CRISPR/Cas9-based gene drive systems. Critical to the design of a single-locus autonomous gene drive is that the selected genomic locus is amenable to both gene drive and appropriate expression of the antiviral effector. In our study, we used reverse engineering to target 2 intergenic genomic loci, which had previously shown to be highly permissive for antiviral effector gene expression, and we further investigated the use of 3 promoters (nanos, β2-tubulin, or zpg) for Cas9 expression. We then quantified the accrual of insertions or deletions (indels) after single-generation crossings, measured maternal effects, and assessed fitness costs associated with various transgenic lines to model the rate of gene drive fixation. Overall, MGDrivE modeling suggested that when an autonomous gene drive is placed into an intergenic locus, the gene drive system will eventually be blocked by the accrual of gene drive blocking resistance alleles and ultimately be lost in the population. Moreover, while genomic locus and promoter selection were critically important for the initial establishment of the autonomous gene drive, it was the fitness of the gene drive line that most strongly influenced the persistence of the gene drive in the simulated population. As such, we propose that when autonomous CRISPR/Cas9-based gene drive systems are anchored in an intergenic locus, they temporarily result in a strong population replacement effect, but as gene drive-blocking indels accrue, the gene drive becomes exhausted due to the fixation of CRISPR resistance alleles.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Irma Sanchez-Vargas
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - Jingyi Lin
- Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211, USA
| | - Rucsanda Juncu
- Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211, USA
| | - Ken E Olson
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - Alexander W E Franz
- Corresponding author: Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211, USA.
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7
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Shutt DP, Goodsman DW, Martinez K, Hemez ZJL, Conrad JR, Xu C, Osthus D, Russell C, Hyman JM, Manore CA. A Process-based Model with Temperature, Water, and Lab-derived Data Improves Predictions of Daily Culex pipiens/restuans Mosquito Density. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2022; 59:1947-1959. [PMID: 36203397 PMCID: PMC9667726 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjac127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
While the number of human cases of mosquito-borne diseases has increased in North America in the last decade, accurate modeling of mosquito population density has remained a challenge. Longitudinal mosquito trap data over the many years needed for model calibration, and validation is relatively rare. In particular, capturing the relative changes in mosquito abundance across seasons is necessary for predicting the risk of disease spread as it varies from year to year. We developed a discrete, semi-stochastic, mechanistic process-based mosquito population model that captures life-cycle egg, larva, pupa, adult stages, and diapause for Culex pipiens (Diptera, Culicidae) and Culex restuans (Diptera, Culicidae) mosquito populations. This model combines known models for development and survival into a fully connected age-structured model that can reproduce mosquito population dynamics. Mosquito development through these stages is a function of time, temperature, daylight hours, and aquatic habitat availability. The time-dependent parameters are informed by both laboratory studies and mosquito trap data from the Greater Toronto Area. The model incorporates city-wide water-body gauge and precipitation data as a proxy for aquatic habitat. This approach accounts for the nonlinear interaction of temperature and aquatic habitat variability on the mosquito life stages. We demonstrate that the full model predicts the yearly variations in mosquito populations better than a statistical model using the same data sources. This improvement in modeling mosquito abundance can help guide interventions for reducing mosquito abundance in mitigating mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile virus.
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Affiliation(s)
- D P Shutt
- Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
| | - D W Goodsman
- Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
- Natural Resources Canada, Northern Forestry Centre, 5320 122 St NW, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada
| | - K Martinez
- Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
| | - Z J L Hemez
- Computational Physics Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
| | - J R Conrad
- Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
| | - C Xu
- Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
| | - D Osthus
- Statistical Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
| | | | - J M Hyman
- Department of Mathematics, Tulane University, 6823 St Charles Ave, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA
| | - C A Manore
- Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
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Da Re D, Van Bortel W, Reuss F, Müller R, Boyer S, Montarsi F, Ciocchetta S, Arnoldi D, Marini G, Rizzoli A, L'Ambert G, Lacour G, Koenraadt CJM, Vanwambeke SO, Marcantonio M. dynamAedes: a unified modelling framework for invasive Aedes mosquitoes. Parasit Vectors 2022; 15:414. [PMID: 36348368 PMCID: PMC9641901 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05414-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2022] [Accepted: 07/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Mosquito species belonging to the genus Aedes have attracted the interest of scientists and public health officers because of their capacity to transmit viruses that affect humans. Some of these species were brought outside their native range by means of trade and tourism and then colonised new regions thanks to a unique combination of eco-physiological traits. Considering mosquito physiological and behavioural traits to understand and predict their population dynamics is thus a crucial step in developing strategies to mitigate the local densities of invasive Aedes populations. Here, we synthesised the life cycle of four invasive Aedes species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Ae. japonicus and Ae. koreicus) in a single multi-scale stochastic modelling framework which we coded in the R package dynamAedes. We designed a stage-based and time-discrete stochastic model driven by temperature, photo-period and inter-specific larval competition that can be applied to three different spatial scales: punctual, local and regional. These spatial scales consider different degrees of spatial complexity and data availability by accounting for both active and passive dispersal of mosquito species as well as for the heterogeneity of the input temperature data. Our overarching aim was to provide a flexible, open-source and user-friendly tool rooted in the most updated knowledge on the species' biology which could be applied to the management of invasive Aedes populations as well as to more theoretical ecological inquiries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniele Da Re
- Georges Lemaître Center for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
| | - Wim Van Bortel
- Unit Entomology and the Outbreak Research Team, Tropical Medicine Institute, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Friederike Reuss
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- Institute of Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Ruth Müller
- Unit Entomology and the Outbreak Research Team, Tropical Medicine Institute, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Sebastien Boyer
- Medical and Veterinary Entomology Unit, Institute Pasteur du Cambodge, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Fabrizio Montarsi
- Laboratory of Parasitology, National reference centre/OIE collaborating centre for diseases at the animal-human interface, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Italy
| | - Silvia Ciocchetta
- The University of Queensland, School of Veterinary Science, Gatton, Australia
| | - Daniele Arnoldi
- Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Italy
| | - Giovanni Marini
- Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Italy
| | - Annapaola Rizzoli
- Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Italy
| | | | | | - Constantianus J M Koenraadt
- Wageningen University & Research, Department of Plant Sciences, Laboratory of Entomology, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Sophie O Vanwambeke
- Georges Lemaître Center for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Matteo Marcantonio
- Evolutionary Ecology and Genetics Group, Earth and Life Institute, UC Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
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Gramajo AA, Laneri K, Laguna MF. Mosquito populations and human social behavior: A spatially explicit agent-based model. Phys Rev E 2022; 106:034405. [PMID: 36266790 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.106.034405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2022] [Accepted: 09/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Some mosquitoes are vectors for disease transmission to human populations. Aedes aegypti, the main vector for dengue in Argentina, mainly breeds in artificial containers as it is strongly adapted to urban environments. This highlights the relevance of understanding human social behavior to design successful vector control campaigns. We developed a model of mosquito populations that considers their main biological and behavioral features and incorporates parameters that model human behavior in relation to water container disposal. We performed extensive numerical simulations to study the variability of adult and aquatic mosquito populations when various protocols are applied, changing the effectiveness and frequency of water bucket disposal and the delay in the availability of water containers for breeding. We found an effectiveness threshold value above which it is possible to significantly limit mosquito dispersal. Interestingly, a nonsynchronized discard frequency, more attainable by human populations, was more efficient than a synchronized one to reduce the aquatic mosquito population. Scenarios with random delays in the availability of water containers indicate that it is not decisive to have a fixed time delay for the entire population, which is more realistic as it mimics a wider range of human behaviors. This simple model could help design dengue prevention campaigns aiming at mosquito population control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Alicia Gramajo
- Statistical and Interdisciplinary Physics Group, Centro Atómico Bariloche and CONICET, R8402AGP Bariloche, Argentina
| | - Karina Laneri
- Statistical and Interdisciplinary Physics Group, Centro Atómico Bariloche and CONICET, R8402AGP Bariloche, Argentina
| | - María Fabiana Laguna
- Statistical and Interdisciplinary Physics Group, Centro Atómico Bariloche and CONICET, R8402AGP Bariloche, Argentina
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10
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Rossini L, Bono Rosselló N, Contarini M, Speranza S, Garone E. Modelling ectotherms’ populations considering physiological age structure and spatial motion: A novel approach. ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101703] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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11
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Zhou X, Gao X, Shi X. Analysis of an SQEIAR stochastic epidemic model with media coverage and asymptomatic infection. INT J BIOMATH 2022. [DOI: 10.1142/s1793524522500838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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12
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Fukui S, Kuwano Y, Ueno K, Atsumi K, Ohta S. Modeling the effect of rainfall changes to predict population dynamics of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus under future climate conditions. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0268211. [PMID: 35613220 PMCID: PMC9132271 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2021] [Accepted: 04/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The population dynamics of mosquitoes in temperate regions are not as well understood as those in tropical and subtropical regions, despite concerns that vector-borne diseases may be prevalent in future climates. Aedes albopictus, a vector mosquito in temperate regions, undergoes egg diapause while overwintering. To assess the prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, this study aimed to simulate and predict mosquito population dynamics under estimated future climatic conditions. In this study, we tailored the physiology-based climate-driven mosquito population (PCMP) model for temperate mosquitoes to incorporate egg diapauses for overwintering. We also investigated how the incorporation of the effect of rainfall on larval carrying capacity (into a model) changes the population dynamics of this species under future climate conditions. The PCMP model was constructed to simulate mosquito population dynamics, and the parameters of egg diapause and rainfall effects were estimated for each model to fit the observed data in Tokyo. We applied the global climate model data to the PCMP model and observed an increase in the mosquito population under future climate conditions. By applying the PCMP models (with or without the rainfall effect on the carrying capacity of the A. albopictus), our projections indicated that mosquito population dynamics in the future could experience changes in the patterns of their active season and population abundance. According to our results, the peak population number simulated using the highest CO2 emission scenario, while incorporating the rainfall effect on the carrying capacity, was approximately 1.35 times larger than that predicted using the model that did not consider the rainfall effect. This implies that the inclusion of rainfall effects on mosquito population dynamics has a major impact on the risk assessments of mosquito-borne diseases in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shin Fukui
- Department of Human Behavior and Environment Sciences, Faculty of Human Sciences, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
- Fisheries Data Sciences Division, Fisheries Stock Assessment Center, Fisheries Resources Institute, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Yusuke Kuwano
- Department of Human Behavior and Environment Sciences, Faculty of Human Sciences, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Evolutionary Studies of Biosystems, School of Advanced Sciences, SOKENDAI (The Graduate University for Advanced Studies), Hayama, Japan
| | - Kazuki Ueno
- Department of Human Behavior and Environment Sciences, Faculty of Human Sciences, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kazuyuki Atsumi
- Department of Human Behavior and Environment Sciences, Faculty of Human Sciences, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Shunji Ohta
- Department of Human Behavior and Environment Sciences, Faculty of Human Sciences, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
- * E-mail:
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13
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Sun H, Koo J, Dickens BL, Clapham HE, Cook AR. Short-term and long-term epidemiological impacts of sustained vector control in various dengue endemic settings: A modelling study. PLoS Comput Biol 2022; 18:e1009979. [PMID: 35363786 PMCID: PMC8975162 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009979] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2021] [Accepted: 02/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
As the most widespread viral infection transmitted by the Aedes mosquitoes, dengue has been estimated to cause 51 million febrile disease cases globally each year. Although sustained vector control remains key to reducing the burden of dengue, current understanding of the key factors that explain the observed variation in the short- and long-term vector control effectiveness across different transmission settings remains limited. We used a detailed individual-based model to simulate dengue transmission with and without sustained vector control over a 30-year time frame, under different transmission scenarios. Vector control effectiveness was derived for different time windows within the 30-year intervention period. We then used the extreme gradient boosting algorithm to predict the effectiveness of vector control given the simulation parameters, and the resulting machine learning model was interpreted using Shapley Additive Explanations. According to our simulation outputs, dengue transmission would be nearly eliminated during the early stage of sustained and intensive vector control, but over time incidence would gradually bounce back to the pre-intervention level unless the intervention is implemented at a very high level of intensity. The time point at which intervention ceases to be effective is strongly influenced not only by the intensity of vector control, but also by the pre-intervention transmission intensity and the individual-level heterogeneity in biting risk. Moreover, the impact of many transmission model parameters on the intervention effectiveness is shown to be modified by the intensity of vector control, as well as to vary over time. Our study has identified some of the critical drivers for the difference in the time-varying effectiveness of sustained vector control across different dengue endemic settings, and the insights obtained will be useful to inform future model-based studies that seek to predict the impact of dengue vector control in their local contexts. Sustained vector control remains key to reducing the global burden of dengue. However, current understanding of the main drivers for the differences in the time-varying epidemiological impact of dengue vector control across different transmission settings remains limited. We developed an agent-based model and showed that in the absence of a highly effective intervention technology that is able to eliminate dengue transmission even in an entirely susceptible population, a fixed level of reduction in the Aedes abundance would only cause temporary reduction in dengue incidence. Furthermore, the time point at which intervention ceases to be effective is strongly influenced not only by the intensity of vector control and the pre-intervention transmission intensity, but also by the individual-level heterogeneity in biting risk. Besides, the intensity of vector control interacts with the other two factors mentioned earlier, and the interaction magnitude also changes over time. These insights will be useful to inform future modelling studies that seek to predict the impact of Aedes control on dengue transmission in their local contexts, and have important implications for the design of intervention strategies to achieve sustained reduction in the global burden of dengue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haoyang Sun
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Republic of Singapore
- * E-mail: (HS); (ARC)
| | - Joel Koo
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Republic of Singapore
| | - Borame L. Dickens
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Republic of Singapore
| | - Hannah E. Clapham
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Republic of Singapore
| | - Alex R. Cook
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Republic of Singapore
- * E-mail: (HS); (ARC)
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14
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Yu J, Li J. Discrete-time models for interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes with general time steps. Math Biosci 2022; 346:108797. [DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2022.108797] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Revised: 02/19/2022] [Accepted: 02/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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15
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Angina J, Bachhu A, Talati E, Talati R, Rychtář J, Taylor D. Game-Theoretical Model of the Voluntary Use of Insect Repellents to Prevent Zika Fever. DYNAMIC GAMES AND APPLICATIONS 2022; 12:133-146. [PMID: 35127230 PMCID: PMC8800840 DOI: 10.1007/s13235-021-00418-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/10/2021] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Zika fever is an emerging mosquito-borne disease. While it often causes no or only mild symptoms that are similar to dengue fever, Zika virus can spread from a pregnant woman to her baby and cause severe birth defects. There is no specific treatment or vaccine, but the disease can be mitigated by using several control strategies, generally focusing on the reduction in mosquitoes or mosquito bites. In this paper, we model Zika virus transmission and incorporate a game-theoretical approach to study a repeated population game of DEET usage to prevent insect bites. We show that the optimal use effectively leads to disease elimination. This result is robust and not significantly dependent on the cost of the insect repellents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jabili Angina
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2012 USA
| | - Anish Bachhu
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2012 USA
| | - Eesha Talati
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2012 USA
| | - Rishi Talati
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2012 USA
| | - Jan Rychtář
- Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2014 USA
| | - Dewey Taylor
- Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284-2014 USA
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16
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Alves LD, Lana RM, Coelho FC. A Framework for Weather-Driven Dengue Virus Transmission Dynamics in Different Brazilian Regions. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18189493. [PMID: 34574418 PMCID: PMC8466780 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18189493] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2021] [Revised: 08/14/2021] [Accepted: 08/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This study investigated a model to assess the role of climate fluctuations on dengue (DENV) dynamics from 2010 to 2019 in four Brazilian municipalities. The proposed transmission model was based on a preexisting SEI-SIR model, but also incorporates the vector vertical transmission and the vector's egg compartment, thus allowing rainfall to be introduced to modulate egg-hatching. Temperature and rainfall satellite data throughout the decade were used as climatic model inputs. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the role of each parameter. The model-simulated scenario was compared to the observed dengue incidence and the findings indicate that the model was able to capture the observed seasonal dengue incidence pattern with good accuracy until 2016, although higher deviations were observed from 2016 to 2019. The results further demonstrate that vertical transmission fluctuations can affect attack transmission rates and patterns, suggesting the need to investigate the contribution of vertical transmission to dengue transmission dynamics in future assessments. The improved understanding of the relationship between different environment variables and dengue transmission achieved by the proposed model can contribute to public health policies regarding mosquito-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leon Diniz Alves
- Centro Federal Celso Suckow da Fonseca, Rio de Janeiro 20271-110, Brazil; or
- Computational Biology and Systems, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil
| | - Raquel Martins Lana
- Scientific Computing Program, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil; or
| | - Flávio Codeço Coelho
- School of Applied Mathematics, Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 22250-900, Brazil
- Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +55-21-98725-1609
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17
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Rossini L, Bono Rosselló N, Speranza S, Garone E. A general ODE-based model to describe the physiological age structure of ectotherms: Description and application to Drosophila suzukii. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109673] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
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18
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Aguirre E, Andreo V, Porcasi X, Lopez L, Guzman C, González P, Scavuzzo CM. Implementation of a proactive system to monitor Aedes aegypti populations using open access historical and forecasted meteorological data. ECOL INFORM 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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19
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Modelling arthropod active dispersal using Partial differential equations: the case of the mosquito Aedes albopictus. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109658] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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20
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Modeling the Risk of Infectious Diseases Transmitted by Aedes aegypti Using Survival and Aging Statistical Analysis with a Case Study in Colombia. MATHEMATICS 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/math9131488] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Many infectious diseases are deadly to humans. The Aedes aegypi mosquito is the principal vector of infectious diseases that include chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever, and zika. Some factors such as survival time and aging are vital in its development and capacity to transmit the pathogens, which in turn are affected by environmental factors such as temperature. In this paper, we consider aging as the biological wear and tear presented in some mosquito populations over time, whereas survival is considered as the maximum time that a mosquito lives. We propose statistical methods that are commonly used in engineering for reliability analysis to compare transmission riskiness among different mosquitoes. We conducted a case study in three Colombian cities: Bello, Riohacha, and Villavicencio. In this study, we detected that the Aedes aegypi female mosquitoes in Bello live longer than in Riohacha and Villavicencio, and the females in Riohacha live longer than those in Villavicencio. Regarding aging, the females from Riohacha age slower than in Villavicencio and the latter age slower than in Bello. Mosquito populations that age slower are considered young and the other ones are old. In addition, we detected that the females from Bello in the temperature range of 27 ∘C–28 ∘C age slower than those in Bello at higher temperatures. In general, a young female has a higher risk of transmitting a disease to humans than an old female, regardless of its survival time. These findings have not been previously reported in studies of this type of infectious diseases and contributed to new knowledge in biomedicine.
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21
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Sánchez C HM, Bennett JB, Wu SL, Rašić G, Akbari OS, Marshall JM. Modeling confinement and reversibility of threshold-dependent gene drive systems in spatially-explicit Aedes aegypti populations. BMC Biol 2020; 18:50. [PMID: 32398005 PMCID: PMC7218562 DOI: 10.1186/s12915-020-0759-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2019] [Accepted: 02/26/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The discovery of CRISPR-based gene editing and its application to homing-based gene drive systems has been greeted with excitement, for its potential to control mosquito-borne diseases on a wide scale, and concern, for the invasiveness and potential irreversibility of a release. Gene drive systems that display threshold-dependent behavior could potentially be used during the trial phase of this technology, or when localized control is otherwise desired, as simple models predict them to spread into partially isolated populations in a confineable manner, and to be reversible through releases of wild-type organisms. Here, we model hypothetical releases of two recently engineered threshold-dependent gene drive systems—reciprocal chromosomal translocations and a form of toxin-antidote-based underdominance known as UDMEL—to explore their ability to be confined and remediated. Results We simulate releases of Aedes aegypti, the mosquito vector of dengue, Zika, and other arboviruses, in Yorkeys Knob, a suburb of Cairns, Australia, where previous biological control interventions have been undertaken on this species. We monitor spread to the neighboring suburb of Trinity Park to assess confinement. Results suggest that translocations could be introduced on a suburban scale, and remediated through releases of non-disease-transmitting male mosquitoes with release sizes on the scale of what has been previously implemented. UDMEL requires fewer releases to introduce, but more releases to remediate, including of females capable of disease transmission. Both systems are expected to be confineable to the release site; however, spillover of translocations into neighboring populations is less likely. Conclusions Our analysis supports the use of translocations as a threshold-dependent drive system capable of spreading disease-refractory genes into Ae. aegypti populations in a confineable and reversible manner. It also highlights increased release requirements when incorporating life history and population structure into models. As the technology nears implementation, further ecological work will be essential to enhance model predictions in preparation for field trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Héctor M Sánchez C
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Jared B Bennett
- Biophysics Graduate Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Sean L Wu
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Gordana Rašić
- Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Omar S Akbari
- Cell and Developmental Biology Section, Division of Biological Sciences, University of California, San Diego, CA, 92093, USA
| | - John M Marshall
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA. .,Innovative Genomics Institute, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.
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22
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Natiello MA, Solari HG. Modelling population dynamics based on experimental trials with genetically modified (RIDL) mosquitoes. Ecol Modell 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.108986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
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23
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Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2130. [PMID: 32358588 PMCID: PMC7195482 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 107] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2019] [Accepted: 03/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950–2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2–4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector’s global invasion potential. Understanding how life cycles of vectors respond to climatic factors is important to predict potential shifts in vector-borne disease risk in the coming decades. Here the authors develop a mechanistic phenological model for the invasive mosquito Aedes aegypti and apply it to project shifts under climate change scenarios.
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24
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Li M, Yang T, Kandul NP, Bui M, Gamez S, Raban R, Bennett J, Sánchez C HM, Lanzaro GC, Schmidt H, Lee Y, Marshall JM, Akbari OS. Development of a confinable gene drive system in the human disease vector Aedes aegypti. eLife 2020; 9:e51701. [PMID: 31960794 PMCID: PMC6974361 DOI: 10.7554/elife.51701] [Citation(s) in RCA: 103] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2019] [Accepted: 01/03/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Aedes aegypti is the principal mosquito vector for many arboviruses that increasingly infect millions of people every year. With an escalating burden of infections and the relative failure of traditional control methods, the development of innovative control measures has become of paramount importance. The use of gene drives has sparked significant enthusiasm for genetic control of mosquitoes; however, no such system has been developed in Ae. aegypti. To fill this void, here we develop several CRISPR-based split gene drives for use in this vector. With cleavage rates up to 100% and transmission rates as high as 94%, mathematical models predict that these systems could spread anti-pathogen effector genes into wild populations in a safe, confinable and reversible manner appropriate for field trials and effective for controlling disease. These findings could expedite the development of effector-linked gene drives that could safely control wild populations of Ae. aegypti to combat local pathogen transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ming Li
- Section of Cell and Developmental BiologyUniversity of California, San DiegoSan DiegoUnited States
| | - Ting Yang
- Section of Cell and Developmental BiologyUniversity of California, San DiegoSan DiegoUnited States
| | - Nikolay P Kandul
- Section of Cell and Developmental BiologyUniversity of California, San DiegoSan DiegoUnited States
| | - Michelle Bui
- Section of Cell and Developmental BiologyUniversity of California, San DiegoSan DiegoUnited States
| | - Stephanie Gamez
- Section of Cell and Developmental BiologyUniversity of California, San DiegoSan DiegoUnited States
| | - Robyn Raban
- Section of Cell and Developmental BiologyUniversity of California, San DiegoSan DiegoUnited States
| | - Jared Bennett
- Department of BiophysicsUniversity of California, BerkeleyBerkeleyUnited States
| | - Héctor M Sánchez C
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthUniversity of California, BerkeleyBerkeleyUnited States
| | - Gregory C Lanzaro
- Vector Genetics Laboratory, Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of California, DavisDavisUnited States
| | - Hanno Schmidt
- Vector Genetics Laboratory, Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of California, DavisDavisUnited States
| | - Yoosook Lee
- Vector Genetics Laboratory, Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of California, DavisDavisUnited States
| | - John M Marshall
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public HealthUniversity of California, BerkeleyBerkeleyUnited States
- Innovative Genomics InstituteBerkeleyUnited States
| | - Omar S Akbari
- Section of Cell and Developmental BiologyUniversity of California, San DiegoSan DiegoUnited States
- Tata Institute for Genetics and SocietyUniversity of California, San DiegoLa JollaUnited States
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25
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López Del Amo V, Bishop AL, Sánchez C HM, Bennett JB, Feng X, Marshall JM, Bier E, Gantz VM. A transcomplementing gene drive provides a flexible platform for laboratory investigation and potential field deployment. Nat Commun 2020; 11:352. [PMID: 31953404 PMCID: PMC6969112 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13977-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2019] [Accepted: 12/11/2019] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
CRISPR-based gene drives can spread through wild populations by biasing their own transmission above the 50% value predicted by Mendelian inheritance. These technologies offer population-engineering solutions for combating vector-borne diseases, managing crop pests, and supporting ecosystem conservation efforts. Current technologies raise safety concerns for unintended gene propagation. Herein, we address such concerns by splitting the drive components, Cas9 and gRNAs, into separate alleles to form a trans-complementing split-gene-drive (tGD) and demonstrate its ability to promote super-Mendelian inheritance of the separate transgenes. This dual-component configuration allows for combinatorial transgene optimization and increases safety by restricting escape concerns to experimentation windows. We employ the tGD and a small-molecule-controlled version to investigate the biology of component inheritance and resistant allele formation, and to study the effects of maternal inheritance and impaired homology on efficiency. Lastly, mathematical modeling of tGD spread within populations reveals potential advantages for improving current gene-drive technologies for field population modification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Víctor López Del Amo
- Section of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
| | - Alena L Bishop
- Section of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
| | - Héctor M Sánchez C
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Jared B Bennett
- Biophysics Graduate Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Xuechun Feng
- Section of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
| | - John M Marshall
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Ethan Bier
- Section of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
- Tata Institute for Genetics and Society, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA, 92093-0349, USA
| | - Valentino M Gantz
- Section of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA.
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26
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Assessing the interplay between human mobility and mosquito borne diseases in urban environments. Sci Rep 2019; 9:16911. [PMID: 31729435 PMCID: PMC6858332 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-53127-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2019] [Accepted: 10/17/2019] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Urbanization drives the epidemiology of infectious diseases to many threats and new challenges. In this research, we study the interplay between human mobility and dengue outbreaks in the complex urban environment of the city-state of Singapore. We integrate both stylized and mobile phone data-driven mobility patterns in an agent-based transmission model in which humans and mosquitoes are represented as agents that go through the epidemic states of dengue. We monitor with numerical simulations the system-level response to the epidemic by comparing our results with the observed cases reported during the 2013 and 2014 outbreaks. Our results show that human mobility is a major factor in the spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue even on the short scale corresponding to intra-city distances. We finally discuss the advantages and the limits of mobile phone data and potential alternatives for assessing valuable mobility patterns for modeling vector-borne diseases outbreaks in cities.
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Marini G, Arnoldi D, Baldacchino F, Capelli G, Guzzetta G, Merler S, Montarsi F, Rizzoli A, Rosà R. First report of the influence of temperature on the bionomics and population dynamics of Aedes koreicus, a new invasive alien species in Europe. Parasit Vectors 2019; 12:524. [PMID: 31694685 PMCID: PMC6833271 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-019-3772-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2019] [Accepted: 10/25/2019] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Aedes koreicus was detected in northern Italy for the first time in 2011, and it is now well established in several areas as a new invasive mosquito species. Data regarding the influence of temperature on mosquito survival and development are not available yet for this species. METHODS We experimentally investigated the influence of different constant rearing temperatures (between 4 and 33 °C) on the survival rates and developmental times of different life stages of Ae. koreicus under laboratory conditions. The resulting data were subsequently used to inform a mathematical model reproducing the Ae. koreicus life-cycle calibrated to counts of adult females captured in the field in the autonomous province of Trento (northern Italy) between 2016 and 2018. RESULTS We found that temperatures above 28 °C are not optimal for the survival of pupae and adults, whereas temperate conditions of 23-28 °C seem to be very favorable, explaining the recent success of Ae. koreicus at establishing into new specific areas. Our results indicate that Ae. koreicus is less adapted to local climatic conditions compared to Ae. albopictus, another invasive species which has been invading the area for the last three decades. Warmer seasons, which are more likely to occur in the future because of climate change, might extend the breeding time and therefore increase the abundance of Ae. koreicus in the study region. CONCLUSIONS Our findings provide, to our knowledge, the first evidence on how temperature influences the bionomics and dynamics of Ae. koreicus and highlight the need for further studies on the phenology of this species in temperate areas of Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Marini
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Trento, Italy
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
| | - Daniele Arnoldi
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Frederic Baldacchino
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Trento, Italy
- Direction départementale de la protection des population du Nord, Lille, France
| | - Gioia Capelli
- Laboratory of Parasitology, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, PD Italy
| | - Giorgio Guzzetta
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
- Center for Information Technology, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | - Stefano Merler
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
- Center for Information Technology, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | - Fabrizio Montarsi
- Laboratory of Parasitology, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, PD Italy
| | - Annapaola Rizzoli
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Roberto Rosà
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Trento, Italy
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
- Center Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento, San Michele all’Adige, Trento Italy
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Sánchez C. HM, Wu SL, Bennett JB, Marshall JM. MGD
riv
E: A modular simulation framework for the spread of gene drives through spatially explicit mosquito populations. Methods Ecol Evol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13318] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Héctor M. Sánchez C.
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public Health University of California Berkeley CA USA
| | - Sean L. Wu
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public Health University of California Berkeley CA USA
| | - Jared B. Bennett
- Biophysics Graduate Group Division of Biological Sciences College of Letters and Science University of California Berkeley CA USA
| | - John M. Marshall
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public Health University of California Berkeley CA USA
- Innovative Genomics Institute Berkeley CA USA
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Obolski U, Perez PN, Villabona‐Arenas CJ, Thézé J, Faria NR, Lourenço J. MVSE: An R-package that estimates a climate-driven mosquito-borne viral suitability index. Methods Ecol Evol 2019; 10:1357-1370. [PMID: 32391139 PMCID: PMC7202302 DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2018] [Accepted: 04/23/2019] [Indexed: 12/05/2022]
Abstract
Viruses, such as dengue, Zika, yellow fever and chikungunya, depend on mosquitoes for transmission. Their epidemics typically present periodic patterns, linked to the underlying mosquito population dynamics, which are known to be driven by natural climate fluctuations. Understanding how climate dictates the timing and potential of viral transmission is essential for preparedness of public health systems and design of control strategies. While various alternative approaches have been proposed to estimate local transmission potential of such viruses, few open-source, ready to use and freely available software tools exist.We developed the Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability Estimator (MVSE) software package for the R programming environment. MVSE estimates the index P, a novel suitability index based on a climate-driven mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number of mosquito-borne viruses. By accounting for local humidity and temperature, as well as viral, vector and human priors, the index P can be estimated for specific host and viral species in different regions of the globe.We describe the background theory, empirical support and biological interpretation of the index P. Using real-world examples spanning multiple epidemiological contexts, we further demonstrate MVSE's basic functionality, research and educational potentials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Uri Obolski
- School of Public HealthTel Aviv UniversityTel AvivIsrael
- Porter School of the Environment and Earth SciencesTel Aviv UniversityTel AvivIsrael
| | - Pablo N. Perez
- Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - Christian J. Villabona‐Arenas
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious DiseasesDepartment of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, LondonSchool of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
| | - Julien Thézé
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
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Spatial Modeling of Mosquito Vectors for Rift Valley Fever Virus in Northern Senegal: Integrating Satellite-Derived Meteorological Estimates in Population Dynamics Models. REMOTE SENSING 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/rs11091024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Mosquitoes are vectors of major pathogen agents worldwide. Population dynamics models are useful tools to understand and predict mosquito abundances in space and time. To be used as forecasting tools over large areas, such models could benefit from integrating remote sensing data that describe the meteorological and environmental conditions driving mosquito population dynamics. The main objective of this study is to assess a process-based modeling framework for mosquito population dynamics using satellite-derived meteorological estimates as input variables. A generic weather-driven model of mosquito population dynamics was applied to Rift Valley fever vector species in northern Senegal, with rainfall, temperature, and humidity as inputs. The model outputs using meteorological data from ground weather station vs satellite-based estimates are compared, using longitudinal mosquito trapping data for validation at local scale in three different ecosystems. Model predictions were consistent with field entomological data on adult abundance, with a better fit between predicted and observed abundances for the Sahelian Ferlo ecosystem, and for the models using in-situ weather data as input. Based on satellite-derived rainfall and temperature data, dynamic maps of three potential Rift Valley fever vector species were then produced at regional scale on a weekly basis. When direct weather measurements are sparse, these resulting maps should be used to support policy-makers in optimizing surveillance and control interventions of Rift Valley fever in Senegal.
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Barriga Rubio RH, Solari HG, Otero M. Stochastic population model of Zea mays L. Math Biosci 2019; 312:88-96. [PMID: 31029607 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2019.04.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2018] [Revised: 03/21/2019] [Accepted: 04/25/2019] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
We propose a minimalist stochastic population model of maize, focused on the description of the maize vegetative stages (seedlings with different number of leaves) involved in the propagation of vector-borne diseases. This model was parameterized from laboratory and field experiments and from observational field studies for multiple hybrids and different weather and soil conditions, taking into account only temperature as input variable. We propose three different submodels to estimate the distribution of the Final Leaf Number NFLN in the plants and to estimate the tassel initiation probability. The first submodel (submodel A), with a fixed NFLN, is adaptable to any particular hybrid, the second and third submodels allow to simulate plants with an empirical NFLN distribution according to bibliographic averages (submodel B) or according to a Poisson Process (submodel C). The three submodels are able to describe the temporal development of populations and events. A good agreement is observed between the development times predicted by the model and the values obtained from laboratory experiments at constant temperature, field experiments carried out in Brazil and Australia and observational studies performed in Argentina. This model may be improved and coupled to leaf growth models and leaf area estimation models to be able to estimate not only the temporal development of populations and events but also the temporal development of the leaf area by plant, which is believed to be related to the carrying capacity of maize specialists insects, vectors of maize diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- R H Barriga Rubio
- Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - H G Solari
- Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires (IFIBA), FCEN-UBA and CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - M Otero
- Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires (IFIBA), FCEN-UBA and CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
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Chen CWS, Khamthong K, Lee S. Markov switching integer‐valued generalized auto‐regressive conditional heteroscedastic models for dengue counts. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/rssc.12344] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Perkins TA, Reiner RC, España G, ten Bosch QA, Verma A, Liebman KA, Paz-Soldan VA, Elder JP, Morrison AC, Stoddard ST, Kitron U, Vazquez-Prokopec GM, Scott TW, Smith DL. An agent-based model of dengue virus transmission shows how uncertainty about breakthrough infections influences vaccination impact projections. PLoS Comput Biol 2019; 15:e1006710. [PMID: 30893294 PMCID: PMC6443188 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006710] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2018] [Revised: 04/01/2019] [Accepted: 12/11/2018] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Prophylactic vaccination is a powerful tool for reducing the burden of infectious diseases, due to a combination of direct protection of vaccinees and indirect protection of others via herd immunity. Computational models play an important role in devising strategies for vaccination by making projections of its impacts on public health. Such projections are subject to uncertainty about numerous factors, however. For example, many vaccine efficacy trials focus on measuring protection against disease rather than protection against infection, leaving the extent of breakthrough infections (i.e., disease ameliorated but infection unimpeded) among vaccinees unknown. Our goal in this study was to quantify the extent to which uncertainty about breakthrough infections results in uncertainty about vaccination impact, with a focus on vaccines for dengue. To realistically account for the many forms of heterogeneity in dengue virus (DENV) transmission, which could have implications for the dynamics of indirect protection, we used a stochastic, agent-based model for DENV transmission informed by more than a decade of empirical studies in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Following 20 years of routine vaccination of nine-year-old children at 80% coverage, projections of the proportion of disease episodes averted varied by a factor of 1.76 (95% CI: 1.54-2.06) across the range of uncertainty about breakthrough infections. This was equivalent to the range of vaccination impact projected across a range of uncertainty about vaccine efficacy of 0.268 (95% CI: 0.210-0.329). Until uncertainty about breakthrough infections can be addressed empirically, our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for it in models of vaccination impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States of America
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
| | - Robert C. Reiner
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States of America
| | - Guido España
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States of America
| | - Quirine A. ten Bosch
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States of America
| | - Amit Verma
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Kelly A. Liebman
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, United States of America
| | - Valerie A. Paz-Soldan
- Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA, United States of America
| | - John P. Elder
- Institute for Behavioral and Community Health, Graduate School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States of America
| | - Amy C. Morrison
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, United States of America
| | - Steven T. Stoddard
- Institute for Behavioral and Community Health, Graduate School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States of America
| | - Uriel Kitron
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | - Gonzalo M. Vazquez-Prokopec
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | - Thomas W. Scott
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, United States of America
| | - David L. Smith
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
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Marini G, Guzzetta G, Marques Toledo CA, Teixeira M, Rosà R, Merler S. Effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume insecticide spraying to prevent dengue in a non-endemic metropolitan area of Brazil. PLoS Comput Biol 2019; 15:e1006831. [PMID: 30849074 PMCID: PMC6426269 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2018] [Revised: 03/20/2019] [Accepted: 01/23/2019] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Management of vector population is a commonly used method for mitigating transmission of mosquito-borne infections, but quantitative information on its practical public health impact is scarce. We study the effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in public spaces for preventing secondary dengue virus (DENV) cases in Porto Alegre, a non-endemic metropolitan area in Brazil. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on detailed entomological, epidemiological and population data, accounting for the geographical distribution of mosquitoes and humans in the study area and spatial transmission dynamics. The model was calibrated against the distribution of DENV cluster sizes previously estimated from the same geographical setting. We estimated a ULV-induced mortality of 40% for mosquitoes and found that the implemented control protocol avoided about 24% of symptomatic cases occurred in the area throughout the 2015-2016 epidemic season. Increasing the radius of treatment or the mortality of mosquitoes by treating gardens and/or indoor premises would greatly improve the result of control, but trade-offs with respect to increased efforts need to be carefully analyzed. We found a moderate effectiveness for ULV-spraying in public areas, mainly due to the limited ability of this strategy in effectively controlling the vector population. These results can be used to support the design of control strategies in low-incidence, non-endemic settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Marini
- Dipartimento di Biodiversità ed Ecologia Molecolare, Centro Ricerca e Innovazione, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Giorgio Guzzetta
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
- Center for Information Technology, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | - Cecilia A. Marques Toledo
- Departamento de Bioquimica e Imunologia do Instituto de Ciencias Biologicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Mauro Teixeira
- Departamento de Bioquimica e Imunologia do Instituto de Ciencias Biologicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Roberto Rosà
- Dipartimento di Biodiversità ed Ecologia Molecolare, Centro Ricerca e Innovazione, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Trento, Italy
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
- Center Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento, San Michele all’Adige (TN), Italy
| | - Stefano Merler
- Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Province of Trento, Italy
- Center for Information Technology, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
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35
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Mathematical modeling of dengue epidemic: control methods and vaccination strategies. Theory Biosci 2019; 138:223-239. [PMID: 30740641 DOI: 10.1007/s12064-019-00273-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2017] [Accepted: 01/02/2019] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
Dengue is, in terms of death and economic cost, one of the most important infectious diseases in the world. So, its mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool to help us to understand the dynamics of the disease and to infer about its spreading by the proposition of control methods. In this paper, control strategies, which aim to eliminate the Aedes aegypti mosquito, as well as proposals for the vaccination campaign are evaluated. In our mathematical model, the mechanical control is accomplished through the environmental support capacity affected by a discrete function that represents the removal of breedings. Chemical control is carried out using insecticide and larvicide. The efficiency of vaccination is studied through the transfer of a fraction of individuals, proportional to the vaccination rate, from the susceptible to the recovered compartments. Our major find is that the dengue fever epidemic is only eradicated with the use of an immunizing vaccine because control measures, directed against its vector, are not enough to halt the disease spreading. Even when the infected mosquitoes are eliminated from the system, the susceptible ones are still present, and infected humans cause dengue fever to reappear in the human population.
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España G, Hogea C, Guignard A, ten Bosch QA, Morrison AC, Smith DL, Scott TW, Schmidt A, Perkins TA. Biased efficacy estimates in phase-III dengue vaccine trials due to heterogeneous exposure and differential detectability of primary infections across trial arms. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0210041. [PMID: 30682037 PMCID: PMC6347271 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0210041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 443] [Impact Index Per Article: 88.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2018] [Accepted: 12/14/2018] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Vaccine efficacy (VE) estimates are crucial for assessing the suitability of dengue vaccine candidates for public health implementation, but efficacy trials are subject to a known bias to estimate VE toward the null if heterogeneous exposure is not accounted for in the analysis of trial data. In light of many well-characterized sources of heterogeneity in dengue virus (DENV) transmission, our goal was to estimate the potential magnitude of this bias in VE estimates for a hypothetical dengue vaccine. To ensure that we realistically modeled heterogeneous exposure, we simulated city-wide DENV transmission and vaccine trial protocols using an agent-based model calibrated with entomological and epidemiological data from long-term field studies in Iquitos, Peru. By simulating a vaccine with a true VE of 0.8 in 1,000 replicate trials each designed to attain 90% power, we found that conventional methods underestimated VE by as much as 21% due to heterogeneous exposure. Accounting for the number of exposures in the vaccine and placebo arms eliminated this bias completely, and the more realistic option of including a frailty term to model exposure as a random effect reduced this bias partially. We also discovered a distinct bias in VE estimates away from the null due to lower detectability of primary DENV infections among seronegative individuals in the vaccinated group. This difference in detectability resulted from our assumption that primary infections in vaccinees who are seronegative at baseline resemble secondary infections, which experience a shorter window of detectable viremia due to a quicker immune response. This resulted in an artefactual finding that VE estimates for the seronegative group were approximately 1% greater than for the seropositive group. Simulation models of vaccine trials that account for these factors can be used to anticipate the extent of bias in field trials and to aid in their interpretation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guido España
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States of America
| | - Cosmina Hogea
- GlaxoSmithKline, Rockville, MD, United States of America
| | | | - Quirine A. ten Bosch
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States of America
| | - Amy C. Morrison
- United States Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima, Peru
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, United States of America
| | - David L. Smith
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Thomas W. Scott
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, United States of America
| | | | - T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States of America
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Kandul NP, Liu J, Sanchez C HM, Wu SL, Marshall JM, Akbari OS. Transforming insect population control with precision guided sterile males with demonstration in flies. Nat Commun 2019; 10:84. [PMID: 30622266 PMCID: PMC6325135 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07964-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 102] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2018] [Accepted: 12/05/2018] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Abstract
The sterile insect technique (SIT) is an environmentally safe and proven technology to suppress wild populations. To further advance its utility, a novel CRISPR-based technology termed precision guided SIT (pgSIT) is described. PgSIT mechanistically relies on a dominant genetic technology that enables simultaneous sexing and sterilization, facilitating the release of eggs into the environment ensuring only sterile adult males emerge. Importantly, for field applications, the release of eggs will eliminate burdens of manually sexing and sterilizing males, thereby reducing overall effort and increasing scalability. Here, to demonstrate efficacy, we systematically engineer multiple pgSIT systems in Drosophila which consistently give rise to 100% sterile males. Importantly, we demonstrate that pgSIT-generated sterile males are fit and competitive. Using mathematical models, we predict pgSIT will induce substantially greater population suppression than can be achieved by currently-available self-limiting suppression technologies. Taken together, pgSIT offers to potentially transform our ability to control insect agricultural pests and disease vectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikolay P Kandul
- Division of Biological Sciences, Section of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, California, USA
| | - Junru Liu
- Division of Biological Sciences, Section of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, California, USA
| | - Hector M Sanchez C
- Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, California, USA
| | - Sean L Wu
- Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, California, USA
| | - John M Marshall
- Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, California, USA
| | - Omar S Akbari
- Division of Biological Sciences, Section of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, California, USA.
- Tata Institute for Genetics and Society, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, California, USA.
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Improving Estimates of Fried’s Index from Mating Competitiveness Experiments. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL, BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICS 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s13253-018-0333-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
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Li J, Han M, Yu J. Simple paratransgenic mosquitoes models and their dynamics. Math Biosci 2018; 306:20-31. [PMID: 30343053 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.10.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2017] [Revised: 05/05/2018] [Accepted: 10/13/2018] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
To study the interactive dynamics of wild mosquitoes and mosquitoes carrying genetically-modified bacteria, we formulate continuous-time homogeneous and stage-structured models in this study. With appropriate transformations, complete results of the existence and stability of all boundary and positive equilibria for the homogeneous model are established and complete results of the existence and local stability of all boundary and positive equilibria for the stage-structured model are obtained as well. The outcomes from the homogeneous and the stage-structured models are similar. Based on the homogeneous model, we particularly investigate how the horizontal transmission of the transgenic bacteria, via the uptake rate of the transgenic bacteria, affects the interactive dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia Li
- Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, CHINA; Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899, U.S.A.
| | - Maoan Han
- Department of Mathematics, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, Zhejiang, 321004, CHINA; Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, CHINA.
| | - Jianshe Yu
- Center for Applied Mathematics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, CHINA.
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Dickens BL, Sun H, Jit M, Cook AR, Carrasco LR. Determining environmental and anthropogenic factors which explain the global distribution of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. BMJ Glob Health 2018; 3:e000801. [PMID: 30233829 PMCID: PMC6135425 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2018-000801] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2018] [Revised: 05/23/2018] [Accepted: 07/13/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Responsible for considerable global human morbidity and mortality, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of several important human diseases, including dengue and yellow fever. Although numerous variables that affect mosquito survival and reproduction have been recorded at the local and regional scales, many remain untested at the global level, potentially confounding mapping efforts to date. Methods We develop a modelling ensemble of boosted regression trees and maximum entropy models using sets of variables previously untested at the global level to examine their performance in predicting the global distribution of these two vectors. The results show that accessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperature are consistently the strongest predictors of mosquito presence. Both vectors are similar in their response to accessibility and humidity, but exhibit individual profiles for temperature. Their mapped ranges are therefore similar except at peripheral latitudes, where the range of Ae. albopictus extends further, a finding consistent with ongoing trapping studies. We show that variables previously identified as being relevant, including maximum and mean temperatures, enhanced vegetation index, relative humidity and population density, are comparatively weak performers. Results The variables identified represent three key biological mechanisms. Cold tolerance is a critical biological parameter, controlling both species' distribution northwards, and to a lesser degree for Ae. albopictus which has consequent greater inland suitability in North America, Europe and East Asia. Absolute humidity restricts the distribution of both vectors from drier areas, where moisture availability is very low, and increases their suitability in coastal areas. The latter is exacerbated by accessibility with increased likelihood of vector importation due to greater potential for human and trade movement. Conclusion Accessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperatures were the strongest and most robust global predictors of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus presence, which should be considered in control efforts and future distribution projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Borame Lee Dickens
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Haoyang Sun
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Mark Jit
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Modelling and Economics Unit, Public Health England, London, UK
| | - Alex R Cook
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Luis Roman Carrasco
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore
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42
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Modeling the 2013 Zika Outbreak in French Polynesia: Intervention Strategies. APPLIED SYSTEM INNOVATION 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/asi1030031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas has been a serious public health emergency since 2015. Since Zika is a vector-borne disease, the size of the vector population in the affected area plays a key role in controlling the scale of the outbreak. The primary vectors for Zika, the Aedes Agypti and Aedes Albopictus species of mosquitoes, are highly sensitive to climatic conditions for survival and reproduction. Additionally, increased international travel over the years has caused the disease outbreak to turn into a pandemic affecting five continents. The mosquito population and the human travel patterns are the two main driving forces affecting the persistence and resurgence of Zika and other vector-borne diseases. This paper presents an enhanced dynamic model that simulates the 2013–2014 French Polynesia Zika outbreak incorporating the temperature dependent mosquito ecology and the local transit network (flights and ferries). The study highlights the importance of human travel patterns and mosquito population dynamics in a disease outbreak. The results predict that more than 85% of the population was infected by the end of the outbreak and it lasted for more than five months across the islands. The basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) for the outbreak is also calculated using the next-generation-matrix for validation purposes. Additionally, this study is focused on measuring the impact of intervention strategies like reducing the mosquito population, preventing mosquito bites and imposing travel bans. French Polynesia was chosen as the region of interest for the study because of available demographic, climate and transit data. Additionally, results from similar studies for the region are available for validation and comparison. However, the proposed system can be used to study the transmission dynamics of any vector-borne disease in any geographic region by altering the climatic and demographic data, and the transit network.
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43
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Fister KR, McCarthy ML, Oppenheimer SF. Diffusing wild type and sterile mosquitoes in an optimal control setting. Math Biosci 2018; 302:100-115. [PMID: 29859194 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.05.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2017] [Revised: 05/28/2018] [Accepted: 05/29/2018] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
This paper develops an optimal control framework to investigate the introduction of sterile type mosquitoes to reduce the overal moquito population. As is well known, mosquitoes are vectors of disease. For instance the WHO lists, among other diseases, Malaria, Dengue Fever, Rift Valley Fever, Yellow Fever, Chikungunya Fever and Zika. [http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs387/en/ ] The goal is to establish the existence of a solution given an optimal sterilization protocol as well as to develop the corresponding optimal control representation to minimize the infiltrating mosquito population while minimizing fecundity and the number of sterile type mosquitoes introduced into the environment per unit time. This paper incorporates the diffusion of the mosquitoes into the controlled model and presents a number of numerical simulations.
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Affiliation(s)
- K Renee Fister
- Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Murray State University, Murray, KY 42071, United States
| | - Maeve L McCarthy
- Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Murray State University, Murray, KY 42071, United States.
| | - Seth F Oppenheimer
- Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Mississippi State University, United States
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44
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Kong L, Wang J, Li Z, Lai S, Liu Q, Wu H, Yang W. Modeling the Heterogeneity of Dengue Transmission in a City. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:ijerph15061128. [PMID: 29857503 PMCID: PMC6025315 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15061128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2018] [Revised: 05/02/2018] [Accepted: 05/19/2018] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Dengue fever is one of the most important vector-borne diseases in the world, and modeling its transmission dynamics allows for determining the key influence factors and helps to perform interventions. The heterogeneity of mosquito bites of humans during the spread of dengue virus is an important factor that should be considered when modeling the dynamics. However, traditional models generally assumed homogeneous mixing between humans and vectors, which is inconsistent with reality. In this study, we proposed a compartmental model with negative binomial distribution transmission terms to model this heterogeneity at the population level. By including the aquatic stage of mosquitoes and incorporating the impacts of the environment and climate factors, an extended model was used to simulate the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, China, and to simulate the spread of dengue in different scenarios. The results showed that a high level of heterogeneity can result in a small peak size in an outbreak. As the level of heterogeneity decreases, the transmission dynamics approximate the dynamics predicted by the corresponding homogeneous mixing model. The simulation results from different scenarios showed that performing interventions early and decreasing the carrying capacity for mosquitoes are necessary for preventing and controlling dengue epidemics. This study contributes to a better understanding of the impact of heterogeneity during the spread of dengue virus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lingcai Kong
- Department of Mathematics and Physics, North China Electric Power University; Baoding 071003, China.
| | - Jinfeng Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing 100864, China.
- Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Zhongjie Li
- Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Shengjie Lai
- WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 IBJ, UK.
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China.
- Flowminder Foundation, Roslagsgatan 17, SE-11355 Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
- WHO Collaborating Center for Vector Surveillance and Management, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Haixia Wu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Weizhong Yang
- Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
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45
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Schmidt CA, Comeau G, Monaghan AJ, Williamson DJ, Ernst KC. Effects of desiccation stress on adult female longevity in Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae): results of a systematic review and pooled survival analysis. Parasit Vectors 2018; 11:267. [PMID: 29695282 PMCID: PMC5918765 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-018-2808-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2017] [Accepted: 03/25/2018] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne viruses such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya are affected by the longevity of the adult female mosquito. Environmental conditions influence the survival of adult female Aedes mosquitoes, the primary vectors of these viruses. While the association of temperature with Aedes mortality has been relatively well-explored, the role of humidity is less established. The current study’s goals were to compile knowledge of the influence of humidity on adult survival in the important vector species Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, and to quantify this relationship while accounting for the modifying effect of temperature. Methods We performed a systematic literature review to identify studies reporting experimental results informing the relationships among temperature, humidity and adult survival in Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Using a novel simulation approach to harmonize disparate survival data, we conducted pooled survival analyses via stratified and mixed effects Cox regression to estimate temperature-dependent associations between humidity and mortality risk for these species across a broad range of temperatures and vapor pressure deficits. Results After screening 1517 articles, 17 studies (one in semi-field and 16 in laboratory settings) met inclusion criteria and collectively reported results for 192 survival experiments. We review and synthesize relevant findings from these studies. Our stratified model estimated a strong temperature-dependent association of humidity with mortality in both species, though associations were not significant for Ae. albopictus in the mixed effects model. Lowest mortality risks were estimated around 27.5 °C and 21.5 °C for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively, and mortality increased non-linearly with decreasing humidity. Aedes aegypti had a survival advantage relative to Ae. albopictus in the stratified model under most conditions, but species differences were not significant in the mixed effects model. Conclusions Humidity is associated with mortality risk in adult female Ae. aegypti in controlled settings. Data are limited at low humidities, temperature extremes, and for Ae. albopictus, and further studies should be conducted to reduce model uncertainty in these contexts. Desiccation is likely an important factor in Aedes population dynamics and viral transmission in arid regions. Models of Aedes-borne virus transmission may be improved by more comprehensively representing humidity effects. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2808-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris A Schmidt
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N. Martin Ave, Tucson, AZ, 85724, USA. .,National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA.
| | - Genevieve Comeau
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture & Life Sciences, University of Arizona, P.O. Box 210036, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Andrew J Monaghan
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA
| | - Daniel J Williamson
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture & Life Sciences, University of Arizona, P.O. Box 210036, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Kacey C Ernst
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N. Martin Ave, Tucson, AZ, 85724, USA.,Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture & Life Sciences, University of Arizona, P.O. Box 210036, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
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46
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Aguiar BS, Lorenz C, Virginio F, Suesdek L, Chiaravalloti-Neto F. Potential risks of Zika and chikungunya outbreaks in Brazil: A modeling study. Int J Infect Dis 2018; 70:20-29. [PMID: 29454041 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2018.02.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2017] [Revised: 01/05/2018] [Accepted: 02/08/2018] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES While Brazil has witnessed an unprecedented Zika (ZIK) epidemic, chikungunya (CHIK) has also recently come into prominence as a threat in the Americas. The aim of this study was to identify the regions with increased probabilities of ZIK and CHIK occurrence, based on environmental and social conditions. METHODS A statistical Maxent model was used to assess the potential spatial risk of ZIK and CHIK dissemination; this considered the number of probable autochthonous ZIK and CHIK cases in 2015 and 2016, along with environmental variables and social indicators. RESULTS Land use was the most significant variable that best defined the distribution of ZIK and CHIK. Of the social variables, garbage destination, type of sanitary installation, and pipe-borne water were the most significant. An estimated 65 million people in Brazil live in areas at high risk of ZIK and 75 million people in areas at high risk of CHIK. The southeast and northeast regions of Brazil presented the largest areas of high risk for both ZIK and CHIK. CONCLUSIONS Many areas across the Brazilian territory are exposed to ZIK or CHIK infection risks, which are related mainly to land use. The study findings offer valuable information to support time-sensitive public health decision-making at the local and national levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Breno S Aguiar
- Departamento de Epidemiologia, Faculdade de Saúde Pública, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Camila Lorenz
- Laboratório de Parasitologia, Instituto Butantan, São Paulo, Brazil; Departamento de Parasitologia, Programa de Pós-Graduação Biologia da Relação Patógeno-Hospedeiro, Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Flávia Virginio
- Laboratório de Parasitologia, Instituto Butantan, São Paulo, Brazil; Departamento de Parasitologia, Programa de Pós-Graduação Biologia da Relação Patógeno-Hospedeiro, Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
| | - Lincoln Suesdek
- Laboratório de Parasitologia, Instituto Butantan, São Paulo, Brazil; Departamento de Parasitologia, Programa de Pós-Graduação Biologia da Relação Patógeno-Hospedeiro, Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
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47
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Yu D, Madras N, Zhu H. Temperature-driven population abundance model for Culex pipiens and Culex restuans (Diptera: Culicidae). J Theor Biol 2018; 443:28-38. [PMID: 29366824 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.01.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2016] [Revised: 01/17/2018] [Accepted: 01/18/2018] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
We develop a temperature-driven abundance model for West Nile virus (WNV) vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans. Temperature-dependent response functions for mosquito development, mortality, and diapause were formulated based on results from available laboratory and field studies. Numerical results compared to observed mosquito trap counts from 2004-2016 demonstrate the ability of our model to predict the observed trend of the mosquito population over a single season in the Peel Region, Ontario. The model has potential to be used as a real-time mosquito abundance forecasting tool with applications in mosquito control programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Don Yu
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Neal Madras
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Huaiping Zhu
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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48
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Shutt DP, Manore CA, Pankavich S, Porter AT, Del Valle SY. Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America. Epidemics 2017; 21:63-79. [DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.06.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2017] [Revised: 06/14/2017] [Accepted: 06/27/2017] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
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49
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Lourenço J, Maia de Lima M, Faria NR, Walker A, Kraemer MU, Villabona-Arenas CJ, Lambert B, Marques de Cerqueira E, Pybus OG, Alcantara LC, Recker M. Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting. eLife 2017; 6:29820. [PMID: 28887877 PMCID: PMC5638629 DOI: 10.7554/elife.29820] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2017] [Accepted: 09/04/2017] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting. Mosquitoes can transmit viruses that cause Zika, dengue and several other tropical diseases that affect humans. Zika virus usually causes mild symptoms, but it is thought that infection during pregnancy can lead to brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, where babies are born with an abnormally small head. Recent studies have shed light on how the Zika virus spread from Africa to reach South America, the Caribbean and North America. However, much less is known about the ecological factors that contribute to the spread of the virus within towns, cities and other local areas. In 2015, Brazil was struck by an outbreak of the Zika virus that led to an international public health emergency. Lourenço et al. used a mathematical model to explore the local conditions within Feira de Santana (a major urban center in Brazil) that contributed to the outbreak. The model took into account numerous factors, including temperature, humidity, rainfall and the mosquito life-cycle, which made it possible to reconstruct the history of the virus over the past three years and to make projections for the next decades. It revealed that most of the infections occured during 2015, with approximately 65% of the population infected. The incidences of new infections declined in 2016, as increasing numbers of local people had already been exposed to the virus and became immune. Temperature and humidity appeared to have played a critical role in sustaining the mosquito population carrying the Zika virus. Further analysis suggests that the risk of Zika virus causing microcephaly is very low – only 0.3–0.5% of the pregnant women in Feira de Santana who were infected with Zika gave birth to a baby with the condition. What therefore makes Zika a public health concern is the combination of a low risk with very high infection rates, which can affect a large number of pregnancies. This study will help researchers and policy makers to predict how the Zika virus will behave in the coming years. It also highlights the limitations and successes of the current system of surveillance. Moreover, it will help to identify critical time periods in the year when mosquito control strategies should be implemented to limit the spread of this virus. In future, this could help shape new local strategies to control Zika virus, dengue and other diseases carried by mosquitoes.
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Affiliation(s)
- José Lourenço
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Maricelia Maia de Lima
- Laboratory of Haematology, Genetics and Computational Biology, FIOCRUZ, SalvadorBahia, Brazil
| | | | - Andrew Walker
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Christian Julian Villabona-Arenas
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMI 233, INSERM U1175 and Institut de Biologie Computationnelle, LIRMM, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Ben Lambert
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Erenilde Marques de Cerqueira
- Centre of PostGraduation in Collective Health, Department of Health, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de SantanaBahia, Brazil
| | - Oliver G Pybus
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Luiz Cj Alcantara
- Laboratory of Haematology, Genetics and Computational Biology, FIOCRUZ, SalvadorBahia, Brazil
| | - Mario Recker
- Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom
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50
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Lega J, Brown HE, Barrera R. Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance Model Improved With Relative Humidity and Precipitation-Driven Egg Hatching. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2017; 54:1375-1384. [PMID: 28402546 PMCID: PMC5850122 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjx077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2016] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
We propose an improved Aedes aegypti (L.) abundance model that takes into account the effect of relative humidity (RH) on adult survival, as well as rainfall-triggered egg hatching. The model uses temperature-dependent development rates described in the literature as well as documented estimates for mosquito survival in environments with high RH, and for egg desiccation. We show that combining the two additional components leads to better agreement with surveillance trap data and with dengue incidence reports in various municipalities of Puerto Rico than incorporating either alone or neither. Capitalizing on the positive association between disease incidence and vector abundance, this improved model is therefore useful to estimate incidence of Ae. aegypti-borne diseases in locations where the vector is abundant year-round.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joceline Lega
- Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, 617 N. Santa Rita Ave., Tucson, AZ 85721 ()
- Corresponding author, e-mail:
| | - Heidi E. Brown
- Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N. Martin Ave., Tucson, AZ 85724 ()
| | - Roberto Barrera
- Entomology and Ecology Activity, Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1324 Calle Cañada, San Juan, Puerto Rico 00920 ()
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