Simple stochastic fingerprints towards mathematical modeling in biology and medicine. 3. ocular irritability classification model

VenomPred 2.0: A Novel In Silico Platform for an Extended and Human Interpretable Toxicological Profiling of Small Molecules

The application of artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) methods is becoming increasingly popular in computational toxicology and drug design; it is considered as a promising solution for assessing the safety profile of compounds, particularly in lead optimization and ADMET studies, and to meet the principles of the 3Rs, which calls for the replacement, reduction, and refinement of animal testing. In this context, we herein present the development of VenomPred 2.0 (http://www.mmvsl.it/wp/venompred2/), the new and improved version of our free of charge web tool for toxicological predictions, which now represents a powerful web-based platform for multifaceted and human-interpretable in silico toxicity profiling of chemicals. VenomPred 2.0 presents an extended set of toxicity endpoints (androgenicity, skin irritation, eye irritation, and acute oral toxicity, in addition to the already available carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, hepatotoxicity, and estrogenicity) that can be evaluated through an exhaustive consensus prediction strategy based on multiple ML models. Moreover, we also implemented a new utility based on the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method that allows human interpretable toxicological profiling of small molecules, highlighting the features that strongly contribute to the toxicological predictions in order to derive structural toxicophores.

Markov Chain Models for Cardiac Rhythm Dynamics in Patients Undergoing Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation

We have developed a novel Markov Chain modeling system that considers vectors of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) by their AF status over a period of time. Our model examines the impact of catheter ablation of AF upon the dynamics of a patient's AF status and their potential return to sinus rhythm. We prove several theorems to determine the probabilities of patients achieving sinus rhythm or progressing to permanent AF. Additionally, we observed aggregation of patients within the paroxysmal AF state in simulation. The aggregating property of Markov chains illustrated the potential benefits of catheter ablation on healthcare resource allocation.

STopTox: An in Silico Alternative to Animal Testing for Acute Systemic and Topical Toxicity

BACKGROUND

Modern chemical toxicology is facing a growing need to Reduce, Refine, and Replace animal tests (Russell 1959) for hazard identification. The most common type of animal assays for acute toxicity assessment of chemicals used as pesticides, pharmaceuticals, or in cosmetic products is known as a "6-pack" battery of tests, including three topical (skin sensitization, skin irritation and corrosion, and eye irritation and corrosion) and three systemic (acute oral toxicity, acute inhalation toxicity, and acute dermal toxicity) end points.

METHODS

We compiled, curated, and integrated, to the best of our knowledge, the largest publicly available data sets and developed an ensemble of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for all six end points. All models were validated according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) QSAR principles, using data on compounds not included in the training sets.

RESULTS

In addition to high internal accuracy assessed by cross-validation, all models demonstrated an external correct classification rate ranging from 70% to 77%. We established a publicly accessible Systemic and Topical chemical Toxicity (STopTox) web portal (https://stoptox.mml.unc.edu/) integrating all developed models for 6-pack assays.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed STopTox, a comprehensive collection of computational models that can be used as an alternative to in vivo 6-pack tests for predicting the toxicity hazard of small organic molecules. Models were established following the best practices for the development and validation of QSAR models. Scientists and regulators can use the STopTox portal to identify putative toxicants or nontoxicants in chemical libraries of interest. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9341.

Novel computational models offer alternatives to animal testing for assessing eye irritation and corrosion potential of chemicals

Eye irritation and corrosion are fundamental considerations in developing chemicals to be used in or near the eye, from cleaning products to ophthalmic solutions. Unfortunately, animal testing is currently the standard method to identify compounds that cause eye irritation or corrosion. Yet, there is growing pressure on the part of regulatory agencies both in the USA and abroad to develop New Approach Methodologies (NAMs) that help reduce the need for animal testing and address unmet need to modernize safety evaluation of chemical hazards. In furthering the development and applications of computational NAMs in chemical safety assessment, in this study we have collected the largest expertly curated dataset of compounds tested for eye irritation and corrosion, and employed this data to build and validate binary and multi-classification Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSAR) models that can reliably assess eye irritation/corrosion potential of novel untested compounds. QSAR models were generated with Random Forest (RF) and Multi-Descriptor Read Across (MuDRA) machine learning (ML) methods, and validated using a 5-fold external cross-validation protocol. These models demonstrated high balanced accuracy (CCR of 0.68–0.88), sensitivity (SE of 0.61–0.84), positive predictive value (PPV of 0.65–0.90), specificity (SP of 0.56–0.91), and negative predictive value (NPV of 0.68–0.85). Overall, MuDRA models outperformed RF models and were applied to predict compounds’ irritation/corrosion potential from the Inactive Ingredient Database, which contains components present in FDA-approved drug products, and from the Cosmetic Ingredient Database, the European Commission source of information on cosmetic substances. All models built and validated in this study are publicly available at the STopTox web portal (https://stoptox.mml.unc.edu/). These models can be employed as reliable tools for identifying potential eye irritant/corrosive compounds

QSAR-Based Studies of Nanomaterials in the Environment

Nanotechnology is a newly emerging field, posing substantial impacts on society, economy, and the environment. In recent years, the development of nanotechnology has led to the design and large-scale production of many new materials and devices with a vast range of applications. However, along with the benefits, the use of nanomaterials raises many questions and generates concerns due to the possible health-risks and environmental impacts. This chapter provides an overview of the Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSAR) studies performed so far towards predicting nanoparticles' environmental toxicity. Recent progresses on the application of these modeling studies are additionally pointed out. Special emphasis is given to the setup of a QSAR perturbation-based model for the assessment of ecotoxic effects of nanoparticles in diverse conditions. Finally, ongoing challenges that may lead to new and exciting directions for QSAR modeling are discussed.

Desirability-based multiobjective optimization for global QSAR studies: application to the design of novel NSAIDs with improved analgesic, antiinflammatory, and ulcerogenic profiles

Up to now, very few reports have been published concerning the application of multiobjective optimization (MOOP) techniques to quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) studies. However, none reports the optimization of objectives related directly to the desired pharmaceutical profile of the drug. In this work, for the first time, it is proposed a MOOP method based on Derringer's desirability function that allows conducting global QSAR studies considering simultaneously the pharmacological, pharmacokinetic and toxicological profile of a set of molecule candidates. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated by applying it to the simultaneous optimization of the analgesic, antiinflammatory, and ulcerogenic properties of a library of fifteen 3-(3-methylphenyl)-2-substituted amino-3H-quinazolin-4-one compounds. The levels of the predictor variables producing concurrently the best possible compromise between these properties is found and used to design a set of new optimized drug candidates. Our results also suggest the relevant role of the bulkiness of alkyl substituents on the C-2 position of the quinazoline ring over the ulcerogenic properties for this family of compounds. Finally, and most importantly, the desirability-based MOOP method proposed is a valuable tool and shall aid in the future rational design of novel successful drugs.

Desirability-based methods of multiobjective optimization and ranking for global QSAR studies. Filtering safe and potent drug candidates from combinatorial libraries

Up to now, very few applications of multiobjective optimization (MOOP) techniques to quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) studies have been reported in the literature. However, none of them report the optimization of objectives related directly to the final pharmaceutical profile of a drug. In this paper, a MOOP method based on Derringer's desirability function that allows conducting global QSAR studies, simultaneously considering the potency, bioavailability, and safety of a set of drug candidates, is introduced. The results of the desirability-based MOOP (the levels of the predictor variables concurrently producing the best possible compromise between the properties determining an optimal drug candidate) are used for the implementation of a ranking method that is also based on the application of desirability functions. This method allows ranking drug candidates with unknown pharmaceutical properties from combinatorial libraries according to the degree of similarity with the previously determined optimal candidate. Application of this method will make it possible to filter the most promising drug candidates of a library (the best-ranked candidates), which should have the best pharmaceutical profile (the best compromise between potency, safety and bioavailability). In addition, a validation method of the ranking process, as well as a quantitative measure of the quality of a ranking, the ranking quality index (Psi), is proposed. The usefulness of the desirability-based methods of MOOP and ranking is demonstrated by its application to a library of 95 fluoroquinolones, reporting their gram-negative antibacterial activity and mammalian cell cytotoxicity. Finally, the combined use of the desirability-based methods of MOOP and ranking proposed here seems to be a valuable tool for rational drug discovery and development.

Computational chemistry approach for the early detection of drug-induced idiosyncratic liver toxicity

Idiosyncratic drug toxicity (IDT), considered as a toxic host-dependent event, with an apparent lack of dose response relationship, is usually not predictable from early phases of clinical trials, representing a particularly confounding complication in drug development. Albeit a rare event (usually <1/5000), IDT is often life threatening and is one of the major reasons new drugs never reach the market or are withdrawn post marketing. Computational methodologies, like the computer-based approach proposed in the present study, can play an important role in addressing IDT in early drug discovery. We report for the first time a systematic evaluation of classification models to predict idiosyncratic hepatotoxicity based on linear discriminant analysis (LDA), artificial neural networks (ANN), and machine learning algorithms (OneR) in conjunction with a 3D molecular structure representation and feature selection methods. These modeling techniques (LDA, feature selection to prevent over-fitting and multicollinearity, ANN to capture nonlinear relationships in the data, as well as the simple OneR classifier) were found to produce QSTR models with satisfactory internal cross-validation statistics and predictivity on an external subset of chemicals. More specifically, the models reached values of accuracy/sensitivity/specificity over 84%/78%/90%, respectively in the training series along with predictivity values ranging from ca. 78 to 86% of correctly classified drugs. An LDA-based desirability analysis was carried out in order to select the levels of the predictor variables needed to trigger the more desirable drug, i.e. the drug with lower potential for idiosyncratic hepatotoxicity. Finally, two external test sets were used to evaluate the ability of the models in discriminating toxic from nontoxic structurally and pharmacologically related drugs and the ability of the best model (LDA) in detecting potential idiosyncratic hepatotoxic drugs, respectively. The computational approach proposed here can be considered as a useful tool in early IDT prognosis.