Mathematical Modelling of Plankton-Oxygen Dynamics Under the Climate Change

Persistent Organic Pollutants in Tagus Estuary Salt Marshes: Patterns of Contamination and Plant Uptake

The presence of anthropogenic compounds, including organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), was studied in three salt marshes within the Tagus estuary, Portugal, along an anthropogenic pressure gradient. Results revealed differences in OCPs and PCBs among the marshes, with differing concentration levels. Specifically, one marsh, with surrounding agricultural activity, showed the highest OCP concentrations, while another, with a historical industrial past, exhibited elevated PCB levels. In contrast, a third marsh, part of a natural reserve, displayed comparatively lower concentrations of both substances. Sediment concentrations, likely influenced by agricultural practices, were found to be comparable to or higher than those observed in other Portuguese estuaries. The halophyte Spartina maritima was found to absorb OCPs, particularly in its aboveground tissues, suggesting bioaccumulation within the plant. Additionally, PCB levels appeared to be influenced by industrial history, with one marsh displaying notably higher concentrations. In conclusion, the persistence of organochlorine compounds in the salt marsh ecosystems notwithstanding the regulatory prohibitions implemented in the 1990s highlights the need for continuous monitoring and study of such sites and the necessity of remediation practices, which are imperative to mitigate ecological and health risks in these polluted salt marshes.

A two-timescale model of plankton-oxygen dynamics predicts formation of oxygen minimum zones and global anoxia

Decline of the dissolved oxygen in the ocean is a growing concern, as it may eventually lead to global anoxia, an elevated mortality of marine fauna and even a mass extinction. Deoxygenation of the ocean often results in the formation of oxygen minimum zones (OMZ): large domains where the abundance of oxygen is much lower than that in the surrounding ocean environment. Factors and processes resulting in the OMZ formation remain controversial. We consider a conceptual model of coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics that, apart from the plankton growth and the oxygen production by phytoplankton, also accounts for the difference in the timescales for phyto- and zooplankton (making it a "slow-fast system") and for the implicit effect of upper trophic levels resulting in density dependent (nonlinear) zooplankton mortality. The model is investigated using a combination of analytical techniques and numerical simulations. The slow-fast system is decomposed into its slow and fast subsystems. The critical manifold of the slow-fast system and its stability is then studied by analyzing the bifurcation structure of the fast subsystem. We obtain the canard cycles of the slow-fast system for a range of parameter values. However, the system does not allow for persistent relaxation oscillations; instead, the blowup of the canard cycle results in plankton extinction and oxygen depletion. For the spatially explicit model, the earlier works in this direction did not take into account the density dependent mortality rate of the zooplankton, and thus could exhibit Turing pattern. However, the inclusion of the density dependent mortality into the system can lead to stationary Turing patterns. The dynamics of the system is then studied near the Turing bifurcation threshold. We further consider the effect of the self-movement of the zooplankton along with the turbulent mixing. We show that an initial non-uniform perturbation can lead to the formation of an OMZ, which then grows in size and spreads over space. For a sufficiently large timescale separation, the spread of the OMZ can result in global anoxia.

Generalized Ulam-Hyers-Rassias stability and novel sustainable techniques for dynamical analysis of global warming impact on ecosystem

Marine structure changes as a result of climate change, with potential biological implications for human societies and marine ecosystems. These changes include changes in temperatures, flow, discrimination, nutritional inputs, oxygen availability, and acidification of the ocean. In this study, a fractional-order model is constructed using the Caputo fractional operator, which singular and nol-local kernel. A model examines the effects of accelerating global warming on aquatic ecosystems while taking into account variables that change over time, such as the environment and organisms. The positively invariant area also demonstrates positive, bounded solutions of the model treated. The equilibrium states for the occurrence and extinction of fish populations are derived for a feasible solution of the system. We also used fixed-point theorems to analyze the existence and uniqueness of the model. The generalized Ulam-Hyers-Rassias function is used to analyze the stability of the system. To study the impact of the fractional operator through computational simulations, results are generated employing a two-step Lagrange polynomial in the generalized version for the power law kernel and also compared the results with an exponential law and Mittag Leffler kernel. We also produce graphs of the model at various fractional derivative orders to illustrate the important influence that the fractional order has on the different classes of the model with the memory effects of the fractional operator. To help with the oversight of fisheries, this research builds mathematical connections between the natural world and aquatic ecosystems.

Impact of Allee and fear effects in a fractional order prey-predator system with group defense and prey refuge

This paper presents a novel fractional-order model of a prey-predator system that incorporates group defense and prey refuge mechanisms, along with Allee and fear effects. First, we examine the existence, uniqueness, non-negativity, and boundedness of the solution of the system. Second, a comprehensive analysis is conducted on the existence, stability, and coexistence of equilibrium states in the system, which are crucial for comprehending prey-predator system behavior. Our investigation reveals that the coexistence equilibrium undergoes a Hopf bifurcation under five key parameters. Specifically, an increased threshold for the transition between group and individual behavior, influenced by different strengths of the Allee effect, enhances the stability of both populations. This discovery sheds light on the role of group effects in shaping prey-predator interactions and ecosystem stability. Third, system discretization is employed to explore the impact of step size on stimulating stability and to investigate the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, providing a more comprehensive understanding of system behavior. The role of step size as a constraint on stability is examined, revealing the system's progression from stability to chaos. Consequently, our results offer a more flexible mechanism for adjusting the stability and dynamics of the two species. Finally, numerical simulations are utilized to validate the reasonableness of the research findings.

An eco-epidemiological model with the impact of fear

In this study, we propose and analyze an eco-epidemiological model with disease in prey and incorporated the effect of fear on prey species due to predator population. We assume that the prey population grows logistically in the absence of predator species, and the disease is limited to the prey population only. We divide the total prey population into two distinct classes: susceptible prey and infected prey. Predator populations are not infected by the diseases, though feed both the susceptible and infected prey. Due to the fear of predators, the prey population becomes more vigilant and moves away from suspected predators. Such a foraging activity of prey reduces the chance of infection among susceptible prey by lowering the contact with infected prey. We assume that the fear of predators has no effect on infected prey as they are more vigilant. Positivity, boundedness, and uniform persistence of the proposed model are investigated. The biologically feasible equilibrium points and their stability are analyzed. We establish the conditions for the Hopf bifurcation of the proposed model around the endemic steady state. As the level of fear increases, the system moves toward the steady state from a limit cycle oscillation. The increasing level of fear cannot wipe out the diseases from the system, but the amplitude of the infected prey decreases as the level of fear is increased. The system changes its stability as the rate of infection increases, and the predator becomes extinct when the rate of infection in prey is high enough though predators are not infected by the disease.

Stationary Probability Density Analysis for the Randomly Forced Phytoplankton–Zooplankton Model with Correlated Colored Noises

In this paper, we propose a stochastic phytoplankton–zooplankton model driven by correlated colored noises, which contains both anthropogenic and natural toxins. Using Khasminskii transformation and the stochastic averaging method, we first transform the original system into an Itô diffusion system. Afterwards, we derive the stationary probability density of the averaging amplitude equation by utilizing the corresponding Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov equation. Then, the stability of the averaging amplitude is studied and the joint probability density of the original two-dimensional system is given. Finally, the theoretical results are verified by numerical simulations, and the effects of noise characteristics and toxins on system dynamics are further illustrated.

Dynamics of Oxygen-Plankton Model with Variable Zooplankton Search Rate in Deterministic and Fluctuating Environments

It is estimated by scientists that 50–80% of the oxygen production on the planet comes from the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. Some of this production is consumed by both phytoplankton and zooplankton for cellular respiration. In this article, we have analyzed the dynamics of the oxygen-plankton model with a modified Holling type II functional response, based on the premise that zooplankton has a variable search rate, rather than constant, which is ecologically meaningful. The positivity and uniform boundedness of the studied system prove that the model is well-behaved. The feasibility conditions and stability criteria of each equilibrium point are discussed. Next, the occurrence of local bifurcations are exhibited taking each of the vital system parameters as a bifurcation parameter. Numerical simulations are illustrated to verify the analytical outcomes. Our findings show that (i) the system dynamics change abruptly for a low oxygen production rate, resulting in depletion of oxygen and plankton extinction; (ii) the proposed system has oscillatory behavior in an intermediate range of oxygen production rates; (iii) it always has a stable coexistence steady state for a high oxygen production rate, which is dissimilar to the outcome of the model of a coupled oxygen-plankton dynamics where zooplankton consumes phytoplankton with classical Holling type II functional response. Lastly, the effect of environmental stochasticity is studied numerically, corresponding to our proposed system.

Effects of greenhouse gases and hypoxia on the population of aquatic species: a fractional mathematical model

Study of ecosystems has always been an interesting topic in the view of real-world dynamics. In this paper, we propose a fractional-order nonlinear mathematical model to describe the prelude of deteriorating quality of water cause of greenhouse gases on the population of aquatic animals. In the proposed system, we recall that greenhouse gases raise the temperature of water, and because of this reason, the dissolved oxygen level goes down, and also the rate of circulation of disintegrated oxygen by the aquatic animals rises, which causes a decrement in the density of aquatic species. We use a generalized form of the Caputo fractional derivative to describe the dynamics of the proposed problem. We also investigate equilibrium points of the given fractional-order model and discuss the asymptotic stability of the equilibria of the proposed autonomous model. We recall some important results to prove the existence of a unique solution of the model. For finding the numerical solution of the established fractional-order system, we apply a generalized predictor-corrector technique in the sense of proposed derivative and also justify the stability of the method. To express the novelty of the simulated results, we perform a number of graphs at various fractional-order cases. The given study is fully novel and useful for understanding the proposed real-world phenomena.

Highly flexible metabolism of the marine euglenozoan protist Diplonema papillatum

BACKGROUND

The phylum Euglenozoa is a group of flagellated protists comprising the diplonemids, euglenids, symbiontids, and kinetoplastids. The diplonemids are highly abundant and speciose, and recent tools have rendered the best studied representative, Diplonema papillatum, genetically tractable. However, despite the high diversity of diplonemids, their lifestyles, ecological functions, and even primary energy source are mostly unknown.

RESULTS

We designed a metabolic map of D. papillatum cellular bioenergetic pathways based on the alterations of transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic profiles obtained from cells grown under different conditions. Comparative analysis in the nutrient-rich and nutrient-poor media, as well as the absence and presence of oxygen, revealed its capacity for extensive metabolic reprogramming that occurs predominantly on the proteomic rather than the transcriptomic level. D. papillatum is equipped with fundamental metabolic routes such as glycolysis, gluconeogenesis, TCA cycle, pentose phosphate pathway, respiratory complexes, β-oxidation, and synthesis of fatty acids. Gluconeogenesis is uniquely dominant over glycolysis under all surveyed conditions, while the TCA cycle represents an eclectic combination of standard and unusual enzymes.

CONCLUSIONS

The identification of conventional anaerobic enzymes reflects the ability of this protist to survive in low-oxygen environments. Furthermore, its metabolism quickly reacts to restricted carbon availability, suggesting a high metabolic flexibility of diplonemids, which is further reflected in cell morphology and motility, correlating well with their extreme ecological valence.

Evolving the narrative for protecting a rapidly changing ocean, post-COVID-19

The ocean is the linchpin supporting life on Earth, but it is in declining health due to an increasing footprint of human use and climate change. Despite notable successes in helping to protect the ocean, the scale of actions is simply not now meeting the overriding scale and nature of the ocean's problems that confront us.Moving into a post-COVID-19 world, new policy decisions will need to be made. Some, especially those developed prior to the pandemic, will require changes to their trajectories; others will emerge as a response to this global event. Reconnecting with nature, and specifically with the ocean, will take more than good intent and wishful thinking. Words, and how we express our connection to the ocean, clearly matter now more than ever before.The evolution of the ocean narrative, aimed at preserving and expanding options and opportunities for future generations and a healthier planet, is articulated around six themes: (1) all life is dependent on the ocean; (2) by harming the ocean, we harm ourselves; (3) by protecting the ocean, we protect ourselves; (4) humans, the ocean, biodiversity, and climate are inextricably linked; (5) ocean and climate action must be undertaken together; and (6) reversing ocean change needs action now.This narrative adopts a 'One Health' approach to protecting the ocean, addressing the whole Earth ocean system for better and more equitable social, cultural, economic, and environmental outcomes at its core. Speaking with one voice through a narrative that captures the latest science, concerns, and linkages to humanity is a precondition to action, by elevating humankind's understanding of our relationship with 'planet Ocean' and why it needs to become a central theme to everyone's lives. We have only one ocean, we must protect it, now. There is no 'Ocean B'.

Nonlinear dynamics of a new seasonal epidemiological model with age-structure and nonlinear incidence rate

In this article, we study the dynamics of a new proposed age-structured population mathematical model driven by a seasonal forcing function that takes into account the variability of the climate. We introduce a generalized force of infection function to study different potential disease outcomes. Using nonlinear analysis tools and differential inequalities theorems, we obtain sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a positive periodic solution. Moreover, we provide sufficient conditions that assure the global attractivity of the positive periodic solution. Numerical results corroborate the theoretical results in the sense that the solutions are positive and the periodic solution is a global attractor. This type of models are important, since they take into account the variability of the weather and the impact on some epidemics such as the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Human Health and Ocean Pollution

Background

Pollution - unwanted waste released to air, water, and land by human activity - is the largest environmental cause of disease in the world today. It is responsible for an estimated nine million premature deaths per year, enormous economic losses, erosion of human capital, and degradation of ecosystems. Ocean pollution is an important, but insufficiently recognized and inadequately controlled component of global pollution. It poses serious threats to human health and well-being. The nature and magnitude of these impacts are only beginning to be understood.

Goals

(1) Broadly examine the known and potential impacts of ocean pollution on human health. (2) Inform policy makers, government leaders, international organizations, civil society, and the global public of these threats. (3) Propose priorities for interventions to control and prevent pollution of the seas and safeguard human health.

Methods

Topic-focused reviews that examine the effects of ocean pollution on human health, identify gaps in knowledge, project future trends, and offer evidence-based guidance for effective intervention.

Environmental Findings

Pollution of the oceans is widespread, worsening, and in most countries poorly controlled. It is a complex mixture of toxic metals, plastics, manufactured chemicals, petroleum, urban and industrial wastes, pesticides, fertilizers, pharmaceutical chemicals, agricultural runoff, and sewage. More than 80% arises from land-based sources. It reaches the oceans through rivers, runoff, atmospheric deposition and direct discharges. It is often heaviest near the coasts and most highly concentrated along the coasts of low- and middle-income countries. Plastic is a rapidly increasing and highly visible component of ocean pollution, and an estimated 10 million metric tons of plastic waste enter the seas each year. Mercury is the metal pollutant of greatest concern in the oceans; it is released from two main sources - coal combustion and small-scale gold mining. Global spread of industrialized agriculture with increasing use of chemical fertilizer leads to extension of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) to previously unaffected regions. Chemical pollutants are ubiquitous and contaminate seas and marine organisms from the high Arctic to the abyssal depths.

Ecosystem Findings

Ocean pollution has multiple negative impacts on marine ecosystems, and these impacts are exacerbated by global climate change. Petroleum-based pollutants reduce photosynthesis in marine microorganisms that generate oxygen. Increasing absorption of carbon dioxide into the seas causes ocean acidification, which destroys coral reefs, impairs shellfish development, dissolves calcium-containing microorganisms at the base of the marine food web, and increases the toxicity of some pollutants. Plastic pollution threatens marine mammals, fish, and seabirds and accumulates in large mid-ocean gyres. It breaks down into microplastic and nanoplastic particles containing multiple manufactured chemicals that can enter the tissues of marine organisms, including species consumed by humans. Industrial releases, runoff, and sewage increase frequency and severity of HABs, bacterial pollution, and anti-microbial resistance. Pollution and sea surface warming are triggering poleward migration of dangerous pathogens such as the Vibrio species. Industrial discharges, pharmaceutical wastes, pesticides, and sewage contribute to global declines in fish stocks.

Human Health Findings

Methylmercury and PCBs are the ocean pollutants whose human health effects are best understood. Exposures of infants in utero to these pollutants through maternal consumption of contaminated seafood can damage developing brains, reduce IQ and increase children's risks for autism, ADHD and learning disorders. Adult exposures to methylmercury increase risks for cardiovascular disease and dementia. Manufactured chemicals - phthalates, bisphenol A, flame retardants, and perfluorinated chemicals, many of them released into the seas from plastic waste - can disrupt endocrine signaling, reduce male fertility, damage the nervous system, and increase risk of cancer. HABs produce potent toxins that accumulate in fish and shellfish. When ingested, these toxins can cause severe neurological impairment and rapid death. HAB toxins can also become airborne and cause respiratory disease. Pathogenic marine bacteria cause gastrointestinal diseases and deep wound infections. With climate change and increasing pollution, risk is high that Vibrio infections, including cholera, will increase in frequency and extend to new areas. All of the health impacts of ocean pollution fall disproportionately on vulnerable populations in the Global South - environmental injustice on a planetary scale.

Conclusions

Ocean pollution is a global problem. It arises from multiple sources and crosses national boundaries. It is the consequence of reckless, shortsighted, and unsustainable exploitation of the earth's resources. It endangers marine ecosystems. It impedes the production of atmospheric oxygen. Its threats to human health are great and growing, but still incompletely understood. Its economic costs are only beginning to be counted.Ocean pollution can be prevented. Like all forms of pollution, ocean pollution can be controlled by deploying data-driven strategies based on law, policy, technology, and enforcement that target priority pollution sources. Many countries have used these tools to control air and water pollution and are now applying them to ocean pollution. Successes achieved to date demonstrate that broader control is feasible. Heavily polluted harbors have been cleaned, estuaries rejuvenated, and coral reefs restored.Prevention of ocean pollution creates many benefits. It boosts economies, increases tourism, helps restore fisheries, and improves human health and well-being. It advances the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). These benefits will last for centuries.

Recommendations

World leaders who recognize the gravity of ocean pollution, acknowledge its growing dangers, engage civil society and the global public, and take bold, evidence-based action to stop pollution at source will be critical to preventing ocean pollution and safeguarding human health.Prevention of pollution from land-based sources is key. Eliminating coal combustion and banning all uses of mercury will reduce mercury pollution. Bans on single-use plastic and better management of plastic waste reduce plastic pollution. Bans on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have reduced pollution by PCBs and DDT. Control of industrial discharges, treatment of sewage, and reduced applications of fertilizers have mitigated coastal pollution and are reducing frequency of HABs. National, regional and international marine pollution control programs that are adequately funded and backed by strong enforcement have been shown to be effective. Robust monitoring is essential to track progress.Further interventions that hold great promise include wide-scale transition to renewable fuels; transition to a circular economy that creates little waste and focuses on equity rather than on endless growth; embracing the principles of green chemistry; and building scientific capacity in all countries.Designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) will safeguard critical ecosystems, protect vulnerable fish stocks, and enhance human health and well-being. Creation of MPAs is an important manifestation of national and international commitment to protecting the health of the seas.

Stability analysis and Hopf bifurcation of a fractional order mathematical model with time delay for nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton

In recent years, some researchers paid their attention to the interaction between toxic phytoplankton and zooplankton. Their studies showed that the mechanism of food selection in zooplankton is still immature and when different algae of the same species (toxic and nontoxic) coexist, some zooplankton may not be able to distinguish between toxic and nontoxic algae, and even show a slight preference for toxic strains. Thus, in this article, a fractional order mathematical model with time delay is constructed to describe the interaction of nutrient-phytoplankton-toxic phytoplankton-zooplankton. The main purpose of this paper is to study the influence of fractional order and time delay on the ecosystem. The sufficient conditions for the existence and local stability of each equilibrium are obtained by using fractional order stability theory. By choosing time delay as the bifurcation parameter, we find that Hopf bifurcation occurs when the time delay passes through a sequence of critical values. After that, some numerical simulations are performed to support the analytic results. At last we make some conclusion and point out some possible future work.

Fractional order oxygen-plankton system under climate change

Global climate change affects marine species including phytoplankton, which constitute the base of the marine food web, by changing the primary productivity. Global warming affects the ocean surface temperature, in turn leading to a change in the oxygen production of phytoplankton. In this work, the fractional oxygen-phytoplankton-zooplankton mathematical model is considered by the Caputo fractional operator. The production rate of photosynthesis is determined by a temperature function. The model is, therefore, based on the idea that the rate of photosynthesis changes due to the impact of global warming, while phytoplankton oxygen production increases and decreases. We analyze the model with the Caputo fractional derivative differently from the classical case of the model and we compare the results with the integer order derivative when α tends to 1. Existence and uniqueness properties of the oxygen-plankton model have been proved by means of a local Lipschitz condition. It was shown that the species are more sustainable than its corresponding classical case in the Caputo model. Our results show that the effect of global warming on the oxygen production rate has been observed to be quite severe, resulting in oxygen depletion and plankton extinction.

The Human Cost of Anthropogenic Global Warming: Semi-Quantitative Prediction and the 1,000-Tonne Rule

Greenhouse-gas emissions are indirectly causing future deaths by multiple mechanisms. For example, reduced food and water supplies will exacerbate hunger, disease, violence, and migration. How will anthropogenic global warming (AGW) affect global mortality due to poverty around and beyond 2100? Roughly, how much burned fossil carbon corresponds to one future death? What are the psychological, medical, political, and economic implications? Predicted death tolls are crucial for policy formulation, but uncertainty increases with temporal distance from the present and estimates may be biased. Order-of-magnitude estimates should refer to literature from diverse relevant disciplines. The carbon budget for 2°C AGW (roughly 1012 tonnes carbon) will indirectly cause roughly 109 future premature deaths (10% of projected maximum global population), spread over one to two centuries. This zeroth-order prediction is relative and in addition to existing preventable death rates. It lies between likely best- and worst-case scenarios of roughly 3 × 108 and 3 × 109, corresponding to plus/minus one standard deviation on a logarithmic scale in a Gaussian probability distribution. It implies that one future premature death is caused every time roughly 1,000 (300-3,000) tonnes of carbon are burned. Therefore, any fossil-fuel project that burns millions of tons of carbon is probably indirectly killing thousands of future people. The prediction may be considered valid, accounting for multiple indirect links between AGW and death rates in a top-down approach, but unreliable due to the uncertainty of climate change feedback and interactions between physical, biological, social, and political climate impacts (e.g., ecological cascade effects and co-extinction). Given universal agreement on the value of human lives, a death toll of this unprecedented magnitude must be avoided at all costs. As a clear political message, the "1,000-tonne rule" can be used to defend human rights, especially in developing countries, and to clarify that climate change is primarily a human rights issue.

Long transients in ecology: Theory and applications

This paper discusses the recent progress in understanding the properties of transient dynamics in complex ecological systems. Predicting long-term trends as well as sudden changes and regime shifts in ecosystems dynamics is a major issue for ecology as such changes often result in population collapse and extinctions. Analysis of population dynamics has traditionally been focused on their long-term, asymptotic behavior whilst largely disregarding the effect of transients. However, there is a growing understanding that in ecosystems the asymptotic behavior is rarely seen. A big new challenge for theoretical and empirical ecology is to understand the implications of long transients. It is believed that the identification of the corresponding mechanisms along with the knowledge of scaling laws of the transient's lifetime should substantially improve the quality of long-term forecasting and crisis anticipation. Although transient dynamics have received considerable attention in physical literature, research into ecological transients is in its infancy and systematic studies are lacking. This text aims to partially bridge this gap and facilitate further progress in quantitative analysis of long transients in ecology. By revisiting and critically examining a broad variety of mathematical models used in ecological applications as well as empirical facts, we reveal several main mechanisms leading to the emergence of long transients and hence lays the basis for a unifying theory.

Transcription in cyanobacteria: a distinctive machinery and putative mechanisms

Transcription in cyanobacteria involves several fascinating features. Cyanobacteria comprise one of the very few groups in which no proofreading factors (Gre homologues) have been identified. Gre factors increase the efficiency of RNA cleavage, therefore helping to maintain the fidelity of the RNA transcript and assist in the resolution of stalled RNAPs to prevent genome damage. The vast majority of bacterial species encode at least one of these highly conserved factors and so their absence in cyanobacteria is intriguing. Additionally, the largest subunit of bacterial RNAP has undergone a split in cyanobacteria to form two subunits and the SI3 insertion within the integral trigger loop element is roughly 3.5 times larger than in Escherichia coli. The Rho termination factor also appears to be absent, leaving cyanobacteria to rely solely on an intrinsic termination mechanism. Furthermore, cyanobacteria must be able to respond to environment signals such as light intensity and tightly synchronise gene expression and other cell activities to a circadian rhythm.

Synthesizing the Effects of Submarine Groundwater Discharge on Marine Biota

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is a global and well-studied geological process by which groundwater of varying salinities enters coastal waters. SGD is known to transport bioactive solutes, including but not limited to nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorous, silica), gases (methane, carbon dioxide), and trace metals (iron, nickel, zinc). In addition, physical changes to the water column, such as changes in temperature and mixing can be caused by SGD. Therefore SGD influences both autotrophic and heterotrophic marine biota across all kingdoms of life. This paper synthesizes the current literature in which the impacts of SGD on marine biota were measured and observed by field, modeling, or laboratory studies. The review is grouped by organismal complexity: bacteria and phytoplankton, macrophytes (macroalgae and marine plants), animals, and ecosystem studies. Directions for future research about the impacts of SGD on marine life, including increasing the number of ecosystem assessment studies and including biological parameters in SGD flux studies, are also discussed.

Analysis of the interaction among rice, weeds, inorganic fertilizer, and a herbivore in a composite farming paddy ecosystem

As one of the Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS), rice field composite farming is an ecological measure in rice production, which can reduce the amount of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides. This research studies the interaction among rice, weed, inorganic fertilizer and herbivore in a composite farming paddy ecosystem. We develop a differential equation model to analyze the relations and interactions among those components. Results show the existence of an equilibrium for paddy and weed extinction, one or two equilibria for rice extinction, an equilibrium for weed extinction, and an equilibrium for rice and weed coexistence. Based on the obtained stability conditions of these equilibria, measures are proposed to avoid the existence or the stability of equilibria for rice extinction. Other measures are proposed to lead to a stable equilibrium for weed extinction, which is the most desirable result in rice production. Conditions for maximizing the yield of rice are also obtained by taking the relative mortality of rice as variable. In addition, we discover the existence of Hopf bifurcation phenomenon in the system, and develop the critical value of Hopf bifurcation by taking the artificial fertilizer rate as the bifurcation parameter. Our findings provide effective guidance and insights for rice production in a composite farming paddy ecosystem.

Manifestation, Drivers, and Emergence of Open Ocean Deoxygenation

Oxygen loss in the ocean, termed deoxygenation, is a major consequence of climate change and is exacerbated by other aspects of global change. An average global loss of 2% or more has been recorded in the open ocean over the past 50-100 years, but with greater oxygen declines in intermediate waters (100-600 m) of the North Pacific, the East Pacific, tropical waters, and the Southern Ocean. Although ocean warming contributions to oxygen declines through a reduction in oxygen solubility and stratification effects on ventilation are reasonably well understood, it has been a major challenge to identify drivers and modifying factors that explain different regional patterns, especially in the tropical oceans. Changes in respiration, circulation (including upwelling), nutrient inputs, and possibly methane release contribute to oxygen loss, often indirectly through stimulation of biological production and biological consumption. Microbes mediate many feedbacks in oxygen minimum zones that can either exacerbate or ameliorate deoxygenation via interacting nitrogen, sulfur, and carbon cycles. The paleo-record reflects drivers of and feedbacks to deoxygenation that have played out through the Phanerozoic on centennial, millennial, and hundred-million-year timescales. Natural oxygen variability has made it difficult to detect the emergence of a climate-forced signal of oxygen loss, but new modeling efforts now project emergence to occur in many areas in 15-25 years. Continued global deoxygenation is projected for the next 100 or more years under most emissions scenarios, but with regional heterogeneity. Notably, even small changes in oxygenation can have significant biological effects. New efforts to systematically observe oxygen changes throughout the open ocean are needed to help address gaps in understanding of ocean deoxygenation patterns and drivers.

Seafarer citizen scientist ocean transparency data as a resource for phytoplankton and climate research

The oceans’ phytoplankton that underpin the marine food chain appear to be changing in abundance due to global climate change. Here, we compare the first four years of data from a citizen science ocean transparency study, conducted by seafarers using home-made Secchi Disks and a free Smartphone application called Secchi, with contemporaneous satellite ocean colour measurements. Our results show seafarers collect useful Secchi Disk measurements of ocean transparency that could help future assessments of climate-induced changes in the phytoplankton when used to extend historical Secchi Disk data.

Analysis of the interaction among weed, inorganic fertilizer and herbivore in paddy ecosystem in fallow season

Paddy growth is influenced by the amount of inorganic fertilizer in paddy ecosystem in fallow season. To discover the interaction among weed, inorganic fertilizer and herbivore in the system, we put forward a differential equation model and investigate its properties. Results show that the system has a weed and herbivore extinct equilibrium and a herbivore extinct equilibrium. The two equilibria are proven to be unstable using the center manifold method. Under certain conditions, the system also has a positive equilibrium point. We give the stable region and the unstable region of the positive equilibrium point, which are determined by some parameters. We find that the system has the Hopf bifurcation phenomenon, and give the critical value of Hopf bifurcation by taking a system parameter as the bifurcation parameter. By comparing the equilibrium states between a paddy ecosystem with herbivore and one without herbivore, we find that the content of inorganic fertilizer can be improved by putting herbivore into a paddy field. An example is given to illustrate the feasibility of the results. Numerical simulation shows that Hopf bifurcation phenomena exist in the system.

The human physiological impact of global deoxygenation

There has been a clear decline in the volume of oxygen in Earth’s atmosphere over the past 20 years. Although the magnitude of this decrease appears small compared to the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere, it is difficult to predict how this process may evolve, due to the brevity of the collected records. A recently proposed model predicts a non-linear decay, which would result in an increasingly rapid fall-off in atmospheric oxygen concentration, with potentially devastating consequences for human health. We discuss the impact that global deoxygenation, over hundreds of generations, might have on human physiology. Exploring the changes between different native high-altitude populations provides a paradigm of how humans might tolerate worsening hypoxia over time. Using this model of atmospheric change, we predict that humans may continue to survive in an unprotected atmosphere for ~3600 years. Accordingly, without dramatic changes to the way in which we interact with our planet, humans may lose their dominance on Earth during the next few millennia.