Impact of global climate cooling on Ordovician marine biodiversity

Global cooling has been proposed as a driver of the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event, the largest radiation of Phanerozoic marine animal Life. Yet, mechanistic understanding of the underlying pathways is lacking and other possible causes are debated. Here we couple a global climate model with a macroecological model to reconstruct global biodiversity patterns during the Ordovician. In our simulations, an inverted latitudinal biodiversity gradient characterizes the late Cambrian and Early Ordovician when climate was much warmer than today. During the Mid-Late Ordovician, climate cooling simultaneously permits the development of a modern latitudinal biodiversity gradient and an increase in global biodiversity. This increase is a consequence of the ecophysiological limitations to marine Life and is robust to uncertainties in both proxy-derived temperature reconstructions and organism physiology. First-order model-data agreement suggests that the most conspicuous rise in biodiversity over Earth's history - the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event - was primarily driven by global cooling.

The FORCIS database: A global census of planktonic Foraminifera from ocean waters

Planktonic Foraminifera are unique paleo-environmental indicators through their excellent fossil record in ocean sediments. Their distribution and diversity are affected by different environmental factors including anthropogenically forced ocean and climate change. Until now, historical changes in their distribution have not been fully assessed at the global scale. Here we present the FORCIS (Foraminifera Response to Climatic Stress) database on foraminiferal species diversity and distribution in the global ocean from 1910 until 2018 including published and unpublished data. The FORCIS database includes data collected using plankton tows, continuous plankton recorder, sediment traps and plankton pump, and contains ~22,000, ~157,000, ~9,000, ~400 subsamples, respectively (one single plankton aliquot collected within a depth range, time interval, size fraction range, at a single location) from each category. Our database provides a perspective of the distribution patterns of planktonic Foraminifera in the global ocean on large spatial (regional to basin scale, and at the vertical scale), and temporal (seasonal to interdecadal) scales over the past century.

Stepping stones towards Antarctica: Switch to southern spawning grounds explains an abrupt range shift in krill

Poleward range shifts are a global-scale response to warming, but these vary greatly among taxa and are hard to predict for individual species, localized regions or over shorter (years to decadal) timescales. Moving poleward might be easier in the Arctic than in the Southern Ocean, where evidence for range shifts is sparse and contradictory. Here, we compiled a database of larval Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba and, together with an adult database, it showed how their range shift is out of step with the pace of warming. During a 70-year period of rapid warming (1920s-1990s), distribution centres of both larvae and adults in the SW Atlantic sector remained fixed, despite warming by 0.5-1.0°C and losing sea ice. This was followed by a hiatus in surface warming and ice loss, yet during this period the distributions of krill life stages shifted greatly, by ~1000 km, to the south-west. Understanding the mechanism of such step changes is essential, since they herald system reorganizations that are hard to predict with current modelling approaches. We propose that the abrupt shift was driven by climatic controls acting on localized recruitment hotspots, superimposed on thermal niche conservatism. During the warming hiatus, the Southern Annular Mode index continued to become increasingly positive and, likely through reduced feeding success for larvae, this led to a precipitous decline in recruitment from the main reproduction hotspot along the southern Scotia Arc. This cut replenishment to the northern portion of the krill stock, as evidenced by declining density and swarm frequency. Concomitantly, a new, southern reproduction area developed after the 1990s, reinforcing the range shift despite the lack of surface warming. New spawning hotspots may provide the stepping stones needed for range shifts into polar regions, so planning of climate-ready marine protected areas should include these key areas of future habitat.

The mathematical influence on global patterns of biodiversity

Although we understand how species evolve, we do not appreciate how this process has filled an empty world to create current patterns of biodiversity. Here, we conduct a numerical experiment to determine why biodiversity varies spatially on our planet. We show that spatial patterns of biodiversity are mathematically constrained and arise from the interaction between the species' ecological niches and environmental variability that propagates to the community level. Our results allow us to explain key biological observations such as (a) latitudinal biodiversity gradients (LBGs) and especially why oceanic LBGs primarily peak at midlatitudes while terrestrial LBGs generally exhibit a maximum at the equator, (b) the greater biodiversity on land even though life first evolved in the sea, (c) the greater species richness at the seabed than at the sea surface, and (d) the higher neritic (i.e., species occurring in areas with a bathymetry lower than 200 m) than oceanic (i.e., species occurring in areas with a bathymetry higher than 200 m) biodiversity. Our results suggest that a mathematical constraint originating from a fundamental ecological interaction, that is, the niche-environment interaction, fixes the number of species that can establish regionally by speciation or migration.

Seafarer citizen scientist ocean transparency data as a resource for phytoplankton and climate research

The oceans’ phytoplankton that underpin the marine food chain appear to be changing in abundance due to global climate change. Here, we compare the first four years of data from a citizen science ocean transparency study, conducted by seafarers using home-made Secchi Disks and a free Smartphone application called Secchi, with contemporaneous satellite ocean colour measurements. Our results show seafarers collect useful Secchi Disk measurements of ocean transparency that could help future assessments of climate-induced changes in the phytoplankton when used to extend historical Secchi Disk data.

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.

Marine ecosystem response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Against the backdrop of warming of the Northern Hemisphere it has recently been acknowledged that North Atlantic temperature changes undergo considerable variability over multidecadal periods. The leading component of natural low-frequency temperature variability has been termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Presently, correlative studies on the biological impact of the AMO on marine ecosystems over the duration of a whole AMO cycle (∼60 years) is largely unknown due to the rarity of continuously sustained biological observations at the same time period. To test whether there is multidecadal cyclic behaviour in biological time-series in the North Atlantic we used one of the world's longest continuously sustained marine biological time-series in oceanic waters, long-term fisheries data and historical records over the last century and beyond. Our findings suggest that the AMO is far from a trivial presence against the backdrop of continued temperature warming in the North Atlantic and accounts for the second most important macro-trend in North Atlantic plankton records; responsible for habitat switching (abrupt ecosystem/regime shifts) over multidecadal scales and influences the fortunes of various fisheries over many centuries.

North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls

A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.

Climate change impact on Balearic shearwater through a trophic cascade

A recent study showed that a critically endangered migratory predator species, the Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, rapidly expanded northwards in northeast Atlantic waters after the mid-1990s. As a significant positive correlation was found between the long-term changes in the abundance of this seabird and sea temperature around the British Isles, it was hypothesized that the link between the biogeographic shift and temperature occurred through the food web. Here, we test this conjecture and reveal concomitant changes in a regional index of sea temperature, plankton (total calanoid copepod), fish prey (anchovy and sardine) and the Balearic shearwater for the period 1980-2003. All three trophic levels exhibit a significant shift detected between 1994 and 1996. Our findings therefore support the assertion of both a direct and an indirect effect of climate change on the spatial distribution of post-breeding Balearic shearwater through a trophic cascade.

Warm-water decapods and the trophic amplification of climate in the North Sea

A long-term time series of plankton and benthic records in the North Sea indicates an increase in decapods and a decline in their prey species that include bivalves and flatfish recruits. Here, we show that in the southern North Sea the proportion of decapods to bivalves doubled following a temperature-driven, abrupt ecosystem shift during the 1980s. Analysis of decapod larvae in the plankton reveals a greater presence and spatial extent of warm-water species where the increase in decapods is greatest. These changes paralleled the arrival of new species such as the warm-water swimming crab Polybius henslowii now found in the southern North Sea. We suggest that climate-induced changes among North Sea decapods have played an important role in the trophic amplification of a climate signal and in the development of the new North Sea dynamic regime.

Trophic amplification of climate warming

Ecosystems can alternate suddenly between contrasting persistent states due to internal processes or external drivers. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which these shifts occur, especially in exploited ecosystems. There have been several abrupt marine ecosystem shifts attributed either to fishing, recent climate change or a combination of these two drivers. We show that temperature has been an important driver of the trophodynamics of the North Sea, a heavily fished marine ecosystem, for nearly 50 years and that a recent pronounced change in temperature established a new ecosystem dynamic regime through a series of internal mechanisms. Using an end-to-end ecosystem approach that included primary producers, primary, secondary and tertiary consumers, and detritivores, we found that temperature modified the relationships among species through nonlinearities in the ecosystem involving ecological thresholds and trophic amplifications. Trophic amplification provides an alternative mechanism to positive feedback to drive an ecosystem towards a new dynamic regime, which in this case favours jellyfish in the plankton and decapods and detritivores in the benthos. Although overfishing is often held responsible for marine ecosystem degeneration, temperature can clearly bring about similar effects. Our results are relevant to ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), seen as the way forward to manage exploited marine ecosystems.

Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up approximately 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management

Regime shifts are abrupt changes between contrasting, persistent states of any complex system. The potential for their prediction in the ocean and possible management depends upon the characteristics of the regime shifts: their drivers (from anthropogenic to natural), scale (from the local to the basin) and potential for management action (from adaptation to mitigation). We present a conceptual framework that will enhance our ability to detect, predict and manage regime shifts in the ocean, illustrating our approach with three well-documented examples: the North Pacific, the North Sea and Caribbean coral reefs. We conclude that the ability to adapt to, or manage, regime shifts depends upon their uniqueness, our understanding of their causes and linkages among ecosystem components and our observational capabilities.