Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences

Seed predation-induced Allee effects, seed dispersal and masting jointly drive the diversity of seed sources during population expansion

The environmental factors affecting plant reproduction and effective dispersal, in particular biotic interactions, have a strong influence on plant expansion dynamics, but their demographic and genetic consequences remain an understudied body of theory. Here, we use a mathematical model in a one-dimensional space and on a single reproductive period to describe the joint effects of predispersal seed insect predators foraging strategy and plant reproduction strategy (masting) on the spatio-temporal dynamics of seed sources diversity in the colonisation front of expanding plant populations. We show that certain foraging strategies can result in a higher seed predation rate at the colonisation front compared to the core of the population, leading to an Allee effect. This effect promotes the contribution of seed sources from the core to the colonisation front, with long-distance dispersal further increasing this contribution. As a consequence, our study reveals a novel impact of the predispersal seed predation-induced Allee effect, which mitigates the erosion of diversity in expanding populations. We use rearrangement inequalities to show that masting has a buffering role: it mitigates this seed predation-induced Allee effect. This study shows that predispersal seed predation, plant reproductive strategies and seed dispersal patterns can be intermingled drivers of the diversity of seed sources in expanding plant populations, and opens new perspectives concerning the analysis of more complex models such as integro-difference or reaction-diffusion equations.

Forced waves and their asymptotic behaviors in a Lotka-Volterra competition model with spatio-temporal nonlocal effect under climate change

In this paper, we propose a modified Lotka-Volterra competition model under climate change, which incorporates both spatial and temporal nonlocal effect. First, the theoretical analyses for forced waves of the model are performed, and the existence of the forced waves is proved by using the cross-iteration scheme combining with appropriate upper and lower solutions. Second, the asymptotic behaviors of the forced waves are derived by using the linearization and limiting method, and we find that the asymptotic behaviors of forced waves are mainly determined by the leading equations. In addition, some typical numerical examples are provided to illustrate the analytical results. By choosing three kinds of different kernel functions, it is found that the forced waves can be both monotonic and non-monotonic.

Population dynamics under climate change: persistence criterion and effects of fluctuations

The present paper is devoted to the investigation of population dynamics under climate change. The evolution of species is modelled by a reaction-diffusion equation in a spatio-temporally heterogeneous environment described by a climate envelope that shifts with a time-dependent speed function. For a general almost-periodic speed function, we establish the persistence criterion in terms of the sign of the approximate top Lyapunov exponent and, in the case of persistence, prove the existence of a unique forced wave solution that dominates the population profile of species in the long run. In the setting for studying the effects of fluctuations in the shifting speed or location of the climate envelope, we show by means of matched asymptotic expansions and numerical simulations that the approximate top Lyapunov exponent is a decreasing function with respect to the amplitude of fluctuations, yielding that fluctuations in the shifting speed or location have negative impacts on the persistence of species, and moreover, the larger the fluctuation is, the more adverse the effect is on the species. In addition, we assert that large fluctuations can always drive a species to extinction. Our numerical results also show that a persistent species under climate change is invulnerable to mild fluctuations, and becomes vulnerable when fluctuations are so large that the species is endangered. Finally, we show that fluctuations of amplitude less than or equal to the speed difference between the shifting speed and the critical speed are too weak to endanger a persistent species.

Searching for genetic evidence of demographic decline in an arctic seabird: beware of overlapping generations

Genetic data are useful for detecting sudden population declines in species that are difficult to study in the field. Yet this indirect approach has its own drawbacks, including population structure, mutation patterns, and generation overlap. The ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea), a long-lived Arctic seabird, is currently suffering from rapid alteration of its primary habitat (i.e., sea ice), and dramatic climatic events affecting reproduction and recruitment. However, ivory gulls live in remote areas, and it is difficult to assess the population trend of the species across its distribution. Here we present complementary microsatellite- and SNP-based genetic analyses to test a recent bottleneck genetic signal in ivory gulls over a large portion of their distribution. With attention to the potential effects of population structure, mutation patterns, and sample size, we found no significant signatures of population decline worldwide. At a finer scale, we found a significant bottleneck signal at one location in Canada. These results were compared with predictions from simulations showing how generation time and generation overlap can delay and reduce the bottleneck microsatellite heterozygosity excess signal. The consistency of the results obtained with independent methods strongly indicates that the species shows no genetic evidence of an overall decline in population size. However, drawing conclusions related to the species' population trends will require a better understanding of the effect of age structure in long-lived species. In addition, estimates of the effective global population size of ivory gulls were surprisingly low (~1000 ind.), suggesting that the evolutionary potential of the species is not assured.

Charting a course for genetic diversity in the UN Decade of Ocean Science

The health of the world's oceans is intrinsically linked to the biodiversity of the ecosystems they sustain. The importance of protecting and maintaining ocean biodiversity has been affirmed through the setting of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 to conserve and sustainably use the ocean for society's continuing needs. The decade beginning 2021-2030 has additionally been declared as the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. This program aims to maximize the benefits of ocean science to the management, conservation, and sustainable development of the marine environment by facilitating communication and cooperation at the science-policy interface. A central principle of the program is the conservation of species and ecosystem components of biodiversity. However, a significant omission from the draft version of the Decade of Ocean Science Implementation Plan is the acknowledgment of the importance of monitoring and maintaining genetic biodiversity within species. In this paper, we emphasize the importance of genetic diversity to adaptive capacity, evolutionary potential, community function, and resilience within populations, as well as highlighting some of the major threats to genetic diversity in the marine environment from direct human impacts and the effects of global climate change. We then highlight the significance of ocean genetic diversity to a diverse range of socioeconomic factors in the marine environment, including marine industries, welfare and leisure pursuits, coastal communities, and wider society. Genetic biodiversity in the ocean, and its monitoring and maintenance, is then discussed with respect to its integral role in the successful realization of the 2030 vision for the Decade of Ocean Science. Finally, we suggest how ocean genetic diversity might be better integrated into biodiversity management practices through the continued interaction between environmental managers and scientists, as well as through key leverage points in industry requirements for Blue Capital financing and social responsibility.

Dispersal and Good Habitat Quality Promote Neutral Genetic Diversity in Metapopulations

Dispersal is a fundamental and crucial ecological process for a metapopulation to survive in heterogeneous or changing habitats. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the habitat quality and the dispersal on the neutral genetics diversity of a metapopulation. We model the metapopulation dynamics on heterogeneous habitats using a deterministic system of ordinary differential equations. We decompose the metapopulation into several neutral genetic fractions seeing as they could be located in different habitats. By using a mathematical model which describes their temporal dynamics inside the metapopulation, we provide the analytical results of their transient dynamics, as well as their asymptotic proportion in the different habitats. The diversity indices show how the genetic diversity at a global metapopulation scale is preserved by the correlation of two factors: the dispersal of the population, as well as the existence of adequate and sufficiently large habitats. The diversity indices show how the genetic diversity at a global metapopulation scale is preserved by the correlation of two factors: the dispersal of the population as well as the existence of adequate and sufficiently large habitats. Moreover, they ensure genetic diversity at the local habitat scale. In a source-sink metapopulation, we demonstrate that the diversity of the sink can be rescued if the condition of the sink is not too deteriorated and the migration from the source is larger than the migration from the sink. Furthermore, our study provides an analytical insight into the dynamics of the solutions of the systems of ordinary differential equations.

What Do We Really Know About Adaptation at Range Edges?

Recent theory and empirical evidence have provided new insights regarding how evolutionary forces interact to shape adaptation at stable and transient range margins. Predictions regarding trait divergence at leading edges are frequently supported. However, declines in fitness at and beyond edges show that trait divergence has sometimes been insufficient to maintain high fitness, so identifying constraints to adaptation at range edges remains a key challenge. Indirect evidence suggests that range expansion may be limited by adaptive genetic variation, but direct estimates of genetic constraints at and beyond range edges are still scarce. Sequence data suggest increased genetic load in edge populations in several systems, but its causes and fitness consequences are usually poorly understood. The balance between maladaptive and positive effects of gene flow on fitness at range edges deserves further study. It is becoming increasingly clear that characterizations about degree of adaptation based solely on geographical peripherality are unsupported.

Harnessing paleo-environmental modeling and genetic data to predict intraspecific genetic structure

Spatially explicit simulations of gene flow within complex landscapes could help forecast the responses of populations to global and anthropological changes. Simulating how past climate change shaped intraspecific genetic variation can provide a validation of models in anticipation of their use to predict future changes. We review simulation models that provide inferences on population genetic structure. Existing simulation models generally integrate complex demographic and genetic processes but are less focused on the landscape dynamics. In contrast to previous approaches integrating detailed demographic and genetic processes and only secondarily landscape dynamics, we present a model based on parsimonious biological mechanisms combining habitat suitability and cellular processes, applicable to complex landscapes. The simulation model takes as input (a) the species dispersal capacities as the main biological parameter, (b) the species habitat suitability, and (c) the landscape structure, modulating dispersal. Our model emphasizes the role of landscape features and their temporal dynamics in generating genetic differentiation among populations within species. We illustrate our model on caribou/reindeer populations sampled across the entire species distribution range in the Northern Hemisphere. We show that simulations over the past 21 kyr predict a population genetic structure that matches empirical data. This approach looking at the impact of historical landscape dynamics on intraspecific structure can be used to forecast population structure under climate change scenarios and evaluate how species range shifts might induce erosion of genetic variation within species.

Inside Dynamics of Integrodifference Equations with Mutations

The method of inside dynamics provides a theory that can track the dynamics of neutral gene fractions in spreading populations. However, the role of mutations has so far been absent in the study of the gene flow of neutral fractions via inside dynamics. Using integrodifference equations, we develop a neutral genetic mutation model by extending a previously established scalar inside dynamics model. To classify the mutation dynamics, we define a mutation class as the set of neutral fractions that can mutate into one another. We show that the spread of neutral genetic fractions is dependent on the leading edge of population as well as the structure of the mutation matrix. Specifically, we show that the neutral fractions that contribute to the spread of the population must belong to the same mutation class as the neutral fraction found in the leading edge of the population. We prove that the asymptotic proportion of individuals at the leading edge of the population spread is given by the dominant right eigenvector of the associated mutation matrix, independent of growth and dispersal parameters. In addition, we provide numerical simulations to demonstrate our mathematical results, to extend their generality and to develop new conjectures about our model.

Dynamic range expansion leads to establishment of a new, genetically distinct wolf population in Central Europe

Local extinction and recolonization events can shape genetic structure of subdivided animal populations. The gray wolf (Canis lupus) was extirpated from most of Europe, but recently recolonized big part of its historical range. An exceptionally dynamic expansion of wolf population is observed in the western part of the Great European Plain. Nonetheless, genetic consequences of this process have not yet been fully understood. We aimed to assess genetic diversity of this recently established wolf population in Western Poland (WPL), determine its origin and provide novel data regarding the population genetic structure of the grey wolf in Central Europe. We utilized both spatially explicit and non-explicit Bayesian clustering approaches, as well as a model-independent, multivariate method DAPC, to infer genetic structure in large dataset (881 identified individuals) of wolf microsatellite genotypes. To put the patterns observed in studied population into a broader biogeographic context we also analyzed a mtDNA control region fragment widely used in previous studies. In comparison to a source population, we found slightly reduced allelic richness and heterozygosity in the newly recolonized areas west of the Vistula river. We discovered relatively strong west-east structuring in lowland wolves, probably reflecting founder-flush and allele surfing during range expansion, resulting in clear distinction of WPL, eastern lowland and Carpathian genetic groups. Interestingly, wolves from recently recolonized mountainous areas (Sudetes Mts, SW Poland) clustered together with lowland, but not Carpathian wolf populations. We also identified an area in Central Poland that seems to be a melting pot of western, lowland eastern and Carpathian wolves. We conclude that the process of dynamic recolonization of Central European lowlands lead to the formation of a new, genetically distinct wolf population. Together with the settlement and establishment of packs in mountains by lowland wolves and vice versa, it suggests that demographic dynamics and possibly anthropogenic barriers rather than ecological factors (e.g. natal habitat-biased dispersal patterns) shape the current wolf genetic structure in Central Europe.

Cooperation mitigates diversity loss in a spatially expanding microbial population

Spatially expanding populations lose genetic diversity rapidly because of repeated bottlenecks formed at the colonization front. However, the rate of diversity loss depends on the specifics of the expanding population, such as its growth and dispersal dynamics. We have previously demonstrated that changing the amount of within-species cooperation leads to a qualitative transition in the nature of expansion from pulled (driven by growth at the low-density tip) to pushed (driven by migration from the high-density region at the front, but behind the tip). Here we demonstrate experimentally that pushed waves result in strongly reduced genetic drift during range expansions, thus preserving genetic diversity in the newly colonized region.

The evolution and potentially even the survival of a spatially expanding population depends on its genetic diversity, which can decrease rapidly due to a serial founder effect. The strength of the founder effect is predicted to depend strongly on the details of the growth dynamics. Here, we probe this dependence experimentally using a single microbial species, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, expanding in multiple environments that induce varying levels of cooperativity during growth. We observe a drastic reduction in diversity during expansions when yeast grows noncooperatively on simple sugars, but almost no loss of diversity when cooperation is required to digest complex metabolites. These results are consistent with theoretical expectations: When cells grow independently from each other, the expansion proceeds as a pulled wave driven by growth at the low-density tip of the expansion front. Such populations lose diversity rapidly because of the strong genetic drift at the expansion edge. In contrast, diversity loss is substantially reduced in pushed waves that arise due to cooperative growth. In such expansions, the low-density tip of the front grows much more slowly and is often reseeded from the genetically diverse population core. Additionally, in both pulled and pushed expansions, we observe a few instances of abrupt changes in allele fractions due to rare fluctuations of the expansion front and show how to distinguish such rapid genetic drift from selective sweeps.

Local adaptation, dispersal evolution, and the spatial eco-evolutionary dynamics of invasion

Local adaptation and dispersal evolution are key evolutionary processes shaping the invasion dynamics of populations colonizing new environments. Yet their interaction is largely unresolved. Using a single-species population model along a one-dimensional environmental gradient, we show how local competition and dispersal jointly shape the eco-evolutionary dynamics and speed of invasion. From a focal introduction site, the generic pattern predicted by our model features a temporal transition from wave-like to pulsed invasion. Each regime is driven primarily by local adaptation, while the transition is caused by eco-evolutionary feedbacks mediated by dispersal. The interaction range and cost of dispersal arise as key factors of the duration and speed of each phase. Our results demonstrate that spatial eco-evolutionary feedbacks along environmental gradients can drive strong temporal variation in the rate and structure of population spread, and must be considered to better understand and forecast invasion rates and range dynamics.

Individual behavior at habitat edges may help populations persist in moving habitats

Moving-habitat models aim to characterize conditions for population persistence under climate-change scenarios. Existing models do not incorporate individual-level movement behavior near habitat edges. These small-scale details have recently been shown to be crucially important for large-scale predictions of population spread and persistence in patchy landscapes. In this work, we extend previous moving-habitat models by including individual movement behavior. Our analysis shows that populations might be able to persist under faster climate change than previous models predicted. We also find that movement behavior at the trailing edge of the climatic niche is much more important for population persistence than at the leading edge.

Genetic diversity and structure related to expansion history and habitat isolation: stone marten populating rural-urban habitats

Background

Population genetic diversity and structure are determined by past and current evolutionary processes, among which spatially limited dispersal, genetic drift, and shifts in species distribution boundaries have major effects. In most wildlife species, environmental modifications by humans often lead to contraction of species’ ranges and/or limit their dispersal by acting as environmental barriers. However, in species well adapted to anthropogenic habitat or open landscapes, human induced environmental changes may facilitate dispersal and range expansions. In this study, we analysed whether isolation by distance and deforestation, among other environmental features, promotes or restricts dispersal and expansion in stone marten (Martes foina) populations.

Results

We genotyped 298 martens from eight sites at twenty-two microsatellite loci to characterize the genetic variability, population structure and demographic history of stone martens in Poland. At the landscape scale, limited genetic differentiation between sites in a mosaic of urban, rural and forest habitats was mostly influenced by isolation by distance. Statistical clustering and multivariate analyses showed weak genetic structuring with two to four clusters and a high rate of gene flow between them. Stronger genetic differentiation was detected for one stone marten population (NE1) located inside a large forest complex. Genetic differentiation between this site and all others was 20% higher than between other sites separated by similar distances. The genetic uniqueness index of NE1 was also twofold higher than in other sites. Past demographic history analyses showed recent expansion of this species in north-eastern Poland. A decrease in genetic diversity from south to north, and MIGRAINE analyses indicated the direction of expansion of stone marten.

Conclusions

Our results showed that two processes, changes in species distribution boundaries and limited dispersal associated with landscape barriers, affect genetic diversity and structure in stone marten. Analysis of local barriers that reduced dispersal and large scale analyses of genetic structure and demographic history highlight the importance of isolation by distance and forest cover for the past colonization of central Europe by stone marten. This confirmed the hypothesis that human-landscape changes (deforestation) accelerated stone marten expansion, to which climate warming probably has also been contributing over the last few decades.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12898-017-0156-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Admixture on the northern front: population genomics of range expansion in the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) and secondary contact with the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus)

Range expansion has genetic consequences expected to result in differentiated wave-front populations with low genetic variation and potentially introgression from a local species. The northern expansion of Peromyscus leucopus in southern Quebec provides an opportunity to test these predictions using population genomic tools. Our results show evidence of recent and post-glacial expansion. Genome-wide variation in P. leucopus indicates two post-glacial lineages are separated by the St. Lawrence River, with a more recent divergence of populations isolated by the Richelieu River. In two of three transects we documented northern populations with low diversity in at least one genetic measure, although most relationships were not significant. Consistent with bottlenecks and allele surfing during northward expansion, we document a northern-most population with low nucleotide diversity, divergent allele frequencies and the most private alleles, and observed heterozygosity indicates outcrossing. Ancestry proportions revealed putative hybrids of P. leucopus and P. maniculatus. A formal test for gene flow confirmed secondary contact, showing that a reticulate population phylogeny between P. maniculatus and P. leucopus was a better fit to the data than a bifurcating model without gene flow. Thus, we provide the first genomic evidence of gene flow between this pair of species in natural populations. Understanding the evolutionary consequences of secondary contact is an important conservation concern as climate-induced range expansions are expected to result in new hybrid zones between closely related species.