Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe

To meet the COP15 biodiversity framework in the European Union (EU), one target is to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational conservation network. The European Alps are a key hub of this network hosting some of the most extensive natural areas and biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Here we assess the robustness of the current European reserve network to safeguard the European Alps' flora by 2080 using semi-mechanistic simulations. We first highlight that the current network needs strong readjustments as it does not capture biodiversity patterns as well as our conservation simulations. Overall, we predict a strong shift in conservation need through time along latitudes, and from lower to higher elevations as plants migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. While increasing species, trait and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. In the face of global changes, the future European reserve network will need to ensure strong elevation and latitudinal connections to complementarily protect multifaceted biodiversity beyond national borders.

Linking biodiversity, ecosystem function, and Nature's contributions to people: a macroecological energy flux perspective

At macroecological scales, the provision of Nature's contributions to people (NCP) is mostly estimated with biophysical information, ignoring the ecological processes underlying them. This hinders our ability to properly quantify the impact of declining biodiversity and the provision of NCP. Here, we propose a framework that combines local-scale food web energy flux approaches and large-scale biodiversity models to evaluate ecosystem functions and flux-related NCP at extensive spatiotemporal scales. Importantly, this approach has the potential to upscale ecosystem functions, assess the vulnerability of flux-related NCP to the climate crisis, and support the development of multiscale mitigation policies.

Re-thinking the environment in landscape genomics

Detecting the extrinsic selective pressures shaping genomic variation is critical for a better understanding of adaptation and for forecasting evolutionary responses of natural populations to changing environmental conditions. With increasing availability of geo-referenced environmental data, landscape genomics provides unprecedented insights into how genomic variation and underlying gene functions affect traits potentially under selection. Yet, the robustness of genotype-environment associations used in landscape genomics remains tempered due to various limitations, including the characteristics of environmental data used, sampling designs employed, and statistical frameworks applied. Here, we argue that using complementary or new environmental data sources and well-informed sampling designs may help improve the detection of selective pressures underlying patterns of local adaptation in various organisms and environments.

High resolution ancient sedimentary DNA shows that alpine plant diversity is associated with human land use and climate change

The European Alps are highly rich in species, but their future may be threatened by ongoing changes in human land use and climate. Here, we reconstructed vegetation, temperature, human impact and livestock over the past ~12,000 years from Lake Sulsseewli, based on sedimentary ancient plant and mammal DNA, pollen, spores, chironomids, and microcharcoal. We assembled a highly-complete local DNA reference library (PhyloAlps, 3923 plant taxa), and used this to obtain an exceptionally rich sedaDNA record of 366 plant taxa. Vegetation mainly responded to climate during the early Holocene, while human activity had an additional influence on vegetation from 6 ka onwards. Land-use shifted from episodic grazing during the Neolithic and Bronze Age to agropastoralism in the Middle Ages. Associated human deforestation allowed the coexistence of plant species typically found at different elevational belts, leading to levels of plant richness that characterise the current high diversity of this region. Our findings indicate a positive association between low intensity agropastoral activities and precipitation with the maintenance of the unique subalpine and alpine plant diversity of the European Alps.

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994-2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm^-2) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.

An integrated high-resolution mapping shows congruent biodiversity patterns of Fagales and Pinales

The documentation of biodiversity distribution through species range identification is crucial for macroecology, biogeography, conservation, and restoration. However, for plants, species range maps remain scarce and often inaccurate. We present a novel approach to map species ranges at a global scale, integrating polygon mapping and species distribution modelling (SDM). We develop a polygon mapping algorithm by considering distances and nestedness of occurrences. We further apply an SDM approach considering multiple modelling algorithms, complexity levels, and pseudo-absence selections to map the species at a high spatial resolution and intersect it with the generated polygons. We use this approach to construct range maps for all 1957 species of Fagales and Pinales with data compilated from multiple sources. We construct high-resolution global species richness maps of these important plant clades, and document diversity hotspots for both clades in southern and south-western China, Central America, and Borneo. We validate the approach with two representative genera, Quercus and Pinus, using previously published coarser range maps, and find good agreement. By efficiently producing high-resolution range maps, our mapping approach offers a new tool in the field of macroecology for studying global species distribution patterns and supporting ongoing conservation efforts.

Genomic vulnerability to rapid climate warming in a tree species with a long generation time

The ongoing increase in global temperature affects biodiversity, especially in mountain regions where climate change is exacerbated. As sessile, long-lived organisms, trees are especially challenged in terms of adapting to rapid climate change. Here, we show that low rates of allele frequency shifts in Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra) occurring near the treeline result in high genomic vulnerability to future climate warming, presumably due to the species' long generation time. Using exome sequencing data from adult and juvenile cohorts in the Swiss Alps, we found an average rate of allele frequency shift of 1.23 × 10^-2 /generation (i.e. 40 years) at presumably neutral loci, with similar rates for putatively adaptive loci associated with temperature (0.96 × 10^-2 /generation) and precipitation (0.91 × 10^-2 /generation). These recent shifts were corroborated by forward-in-time simulations at neutral and adaptive loci. Additionally, in juvenile trees at the colonisation front we detected alleles putatively beneficial under a future warmer and drier climate. Notably, the observed past rate of allele frequency shift in temperature-associated loci was decidedly lower than the estimated average rate of 6.29 × 10^-2 /generation needed to match a moderate future climate scenario (RCP4.5). Our findings suggest that species with long generation times may have difficulty keeping up with the rapid climate change occurring in high mountain areas and thus are prone to local extinction in their current main elevation range.

Functional Diversity in Ferns Is Driven by Species Richness Rather Than by Environmental Constraints

Functional traits determine how species interact with their abiotic and biotic environment. In turn, functional diversity describes how assemblages of species as a whole are adapted to their environment, which also determines how they might react to changing conditions. To fully understand functional diversity, it is fundamental to (a) disentangle the influences of environmental filtering and species richness from each other, (b) assess if the trait space saturates at high levels of species richness, and (c) understand how changes in species numbers affect the relative importance of the trait niche expansion and packing. In the present study, we determined functional diversity of fern assemblages by describing morphological traits related to resource acquisition along four tropical elevational transects with different environmental conditions and species richness. We used several functional diversity indices and their standardized effect size to consider different aspects of functional diversity. We contrasted these aspects of functional diversity with climate data and species richness using linear models and linear mixed models. Our results show that functional morphological trait diversity was primarily driven by species richness and only marginally by environmental conditions. Moreover, increasing species richness contributed progressively to packing of the morphological niche space, while at the same time decreasing morphological expansion until a saturation point was reached. Overall, our findings suggest that the density of co-occurring species is the fundamental driving force of morphological niche structure, and environmental conditions have only an indirect influence on fern resource acquisition strategies.

Long-term cloud forest response to climate warming revealed by insect speciation history

Montane cloud forests are areas of high endemism, and are one of the more vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Thus, understanding how they both contribute to the generation of biodiversity, and will respond to ongoing climate change, are important and related challenges. The widely accepted model for montane cloud forest dynamics involves upslope forcing of their range limits with global climate warming. However, limited climate data provides some support for an alternative model, where range limits are forced downslope with climate warming. Testing between these two models is challenging, due to the inherent limitations of climate and pollen records. We overcome this with an alternative source of historical information, testing between competing model predictions using genomic data and demographic analyses for a species of beetle tightly associated to an oceanic island cloud forest. Results unequivocally support the alternative model: populations that were isolated at higher elevation peaks during the Last Glacial Maximum are now in contact and hybridizing at lower elevations. Our results suggest that genomic data are a rich source of information to further understand how montane cloud forest biodiversity originates, and how it is likely to be impacted by ongoing climate change.

Impacts of climate change on geographical distributions of invasive ascidians

Ocean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here, we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly, currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted, suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas, Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast, African coasts, excluding the Mediterranean side, are not prone to new invasions, likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks, which can be used as guides to develop management strategies.

Harnessing paleo-environmental modeling and genetic data to predict intraspecific genetic structure

Spatially explicit simulations of gene flow within complex landscapes could help forecast the responses of populations to global and anthropological changes. Simulating how past climate change shaped intraspecific genetic variation can provide a validation of models in anticipation of their use to predict future changes. We review simulation models that provide inferences on population genetic structure. Existing simulation models generally integrate complex demographic and genetic processes but are less focused on the landscape dynamics. In contrast to previous approaches integrating detailed demographic and genetic processes and only secondarily landscape dynamics, we present a model based on parsimonious biological mechanisms combining habitat suitability and cellular processes, applicable to complex landscapes. The simulation model takes as input (a) the species dispersal capacities as the main biological parameter, (b) the species habitat suitability, and (c) the landscape structure, modulating dispersal. Our model emphasizes the role of landscape features and their temporal dynamics in generating genetic differentiation among populations within species. We illustrate our model on caribou/reindeer populations sampled across the entire species distribution range in the Northern Hemisphere. We show that simulations over the past 21 kyr predict a population genetic structure that matches empirical data. This approach looking at the impact of historical landscape dynamics on intraspecific structure can be used to forecast population structure under climate change scenarios and evaluate how species range shifts might induce erosion of genetic variation within species.

Global vulnerability of soil ecosystems to erosion

CONTEXT

Soil erosion is one of the main threats driving soil degradation across the globe with important impacts on crop yields, soil biota, biogeochemical cycles, and ultimately human nutrition.

OBJECTIVES

Here, using an empirical model, we present a global and temporally explicit assessment of soil erosion risk according to recent (2001-2013) dynamics of rainfall and vegetation cover change to identify vulnerable areas for soils and soil biodiversity.

METHODS

We used an adaptation of the Universal Soil Loss Equation together with state of the art remote sensing models to create a spatially and temporally explicit global model of soil erosion and soil protection. Finally, we overlaid global maps of soil biodiversity to assess the potential vulnerability of these soil communities to soil erosion.

RESULTS

We show a consistent decline in soil erosion protection over time across terrestrial biomes, which resulted in a global increase of 11.7% in soil erosion rates. Notably, soil erosion risk systematically increased between 2006 and 2013 in relation to the baseline year (2001). Although vegetation cover is central to soil protection, this increase was mostly driven by changes in rainfall erosivity. Globally, soil erosion is expected not only to have an impact on the vulnerability of soil conditions but also on soil biodiversity with 6.4% (for soil macrofauna) and 7.6% (for soil fungi) of these vulnerable areas coinciding with regions with high soil biodiversity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that an increasing proportion of soils are degraded globally, affecting not only livelihoods but also potentially degrading local and regional landscapes. Similarly, many degraded regions coincide with and may have impacted high levels of soil biodiversity.

Plant functional trait change across a warming tundra biome

The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations. Spatial temperature-trait relationships were generally strong but soil moisture had a marked influence on the strength and direction of these relationships, highlighting the potentially important influence of changes in water availability on future trait shifts in tundra plant communities. Community height increased with warming across all sites over the past three decades, but other traits lagged far behind predicted rates of change. Our findings highlight the challenge of using space-for-time substitution to predict the functional consequences of future warming and suggest that functions that are tied closely to plant height will experience the most rapid change. They also reveal the strength with which environmental factors shape biotic communities at the coldest extremes of the planet and will help to improve projections of functional changes in tundra ecosystems with climate warming.

Assessing species saturation: conceptual and methodological challenges

Is there a maximum number of species that can coexist? Intuitively, we assume an upper limit to the number of species in a given assemblage, or that a lineage can produce, but defining and testing this limit has proven problematic. Herein, we first outline seven general challenges of studies on species saturation, most of which are independent of the actual method used to assess saturation. Among these are the challenge of defining saturation conceptually and operationally, the importance of setting an appropriate referential system, and the need to discriminate among patterns, processes and mechanisms. Second, we list and discuss the methodological approaches that have been used to study species saturation. These approaches vary in time and spatial scales, and in the variables and assumptions needed to assess saturation. We argue that assessing species saturation is possible, but that many studies conducted to date have conceptual and methodological flaws that prevent us from currently attaining a good idea of the occurrence of species saturation.

Molecular ecology studies of species radiations: current research gaps, opportunities and challenges

Understanding the drivers and limits of species radiations is a crucial goal of evolutionary genetics and molecular ecology, yet research on this topic has been hampered by the notorious difficulty of connecting micro- and macroevolutionary approaches to studying the drivers of diversification. To chart the current research gaps, opportunities and challenges of molecular ecology approaches to studying radiations, we examine the literature in the journal Molecular Ecology and revisit recent high-profile examples of evolutionary genomic research on radiations. We find that available studies of radiations are highly unevenly distributed among taxa, with many ecologically important and species-rich organismal groups remaining severely understudied, including arthropods, plants and fungi. Most studies employed molecular methods suitable over either short or long evolutionary time scales, such as microsatellites or restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) in the former case and conventional amplicon sequencing of organellar DNA in the latter. The potential of molecular ecology studies to address and resolve patterns and processes around the species level in radiating groups of taxa is currently limited primarily by sample size and a dearth of information on radiating nuclear genomes as opposed to organellar ones. Based on our literature survey and personal experience, we suggest possible ways forward in the coming years. We touch on the potential and current limitations of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) in studies of radiations. We suggest that WGS and targeted ('capture') resequencing emerge as the methods of choice for scaling up the sampling of populations, species and genomes, including currently understudied organismal groups and the genes or regulatory elements expected to matter most to species radiations.

Pollinator adaptation and the evolution of floral nectar sugar composition

A long-standing debate concerns whether nectar sugar composition evolves as an adaptation to pollinator dietary requirements or whether it is 'phylogenetically constrained'. Here, we use a modelling approach to evaluate the hypothesis that nectar sucrose proportion (NSP) is an adaptation to pollinators. We analyse ~ 2100 species of asterids, spanning several plant families and pollinator groups (PGs), and show that the hypothesis of adaptation cannot be rejected: NSP evolves towards two optimal values, high NSP for specialist-pollinated and low NSP for generalist-pollinated plants. However, the inferred adaptive process is weak, suggesting that adaptation to PG only provides a partial explanation for how nectar evolves. Additional factors are therefore needed to fully explain nectar evolution, and we suggest that future studies might incorporate floral shape and size and the abiotic environment into the analytical framework. Further, we show that NSP and PG evolution are correlated - in a manner dictated by pollinator behaviour. This contrasts with the view that a plant necessarily has to adapt its nectar composition to ensure pollination but rather suggests that pollinators adapt their foraging behaviour or dietary requirements to the nectar sugar composition presented by the plants. Finally, we document unexpectedly sucrose-poor nectar in some specialized nectarivorous bird-pollinated plants from the Old World, which might represent an overlooked form of pollinator deception. Thus, our broad study provides several new insights into how nectar evolves and we conclude by discussing why maintaining the conceptual dichotomy between adaptation and constraint might be unhelpful for advancing this field.