A Novel Nomogram to Predict the Prognosis of Patients Undergoing Liver Resection for Neuroendocrine Liver Metastasis: an Analysis of the Italian Neuroendocrine Liver Metastasis Database

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in small-bowel adenocarcinoma patients using the SEER database

BACKGROUND

Small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) is a rare gastrointestinal malignancy forwhich survival is hampered by late diagnosis, complex responses to treatment, and poor prognosis. Accurate prognostic tools are crucial for optimizing treatment strategies and improving patient outcomes. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with SBA and compare it to traditional American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 2,064 patients diagnosed with SBA between 2010 and 2020 from the SEER database. Patients were randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts (7:3 ratio). Kaplan‒Meier survival analysis, Cox multivariate regression, and nomograms were constructed for analysis of 3-year and 5-year CSS. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox regression identified sex, age at diagnosis, marital status, tumor site, pathological grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, retrieval of regional lymph nodes (RORLN), and chemotherapy as independent covariates associated with CSS. In both the training and validation cohorts, the developed nomograms demonstrated superior performance to that of the AJCC staging system, with C-indices of 0.764 and 0.759, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) values obtained by ROC analysis for 3-year and 5-year CSS prediction significantly surpassed those of the AJCC model. The nomograms were validated using calibration and decision curves, confirming their clinical utility and superior predictive accuracy. The NRI and IDI indicated the enhanced predictive capability of the nomogram model.

CONCLUSION

The SEER-based nomogram offers a significantly superior ability to predict CSS in SBA patients, supporting its potential application in clinical decision-making and personalized approaches to managing SBA to improve survival outcomes.

A Nomogram to Predict Individual Survival of Patients with Liver-Limited Metastases from Gastroenteropancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms: A US Population-Based Cohort Analysis and Chinese Multicenter Cohort Validation Study

INTRODUCTION

Although gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP-NENs) with liver metastasis encompass a wide variety of clinical conditions with various prognosis, no statistical model for predicting the prognosis of these patients has been established. We sought to establish a more elaborative and individualized nomogram to predict survival of patients with liver-limited metastatic GEP-NENs. In addition, this nomogram was validated by both the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and a Chinese multicenter cohort.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with GEP-NENs with liver-limited metastasis between 2010 and 2016 were identified from the SEER database. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to analyze survival outcomes. A nomogram was established based on the independent prognostic variables identified from univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The nomogram was evaluated in both an internal validation SEER dataset and an external validation dataset composed of patients from the Chinese multicenter cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 1,474 patients from the SEER database and 192 patients from the multicenter cohort were included. Age, tumor size, differentiation, primary tumor resection, and liver metastasis resection were identified as independent prognostic factors by univariate and multivariate Cox analyses and were verified by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis (all p < 0.0001). A nomogram was developed and validated by calibration curves and areas under the curve of the external validation cohort, which showed good consistency and veracity in predicting overall survival.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram was developed for the first time to predict the survival of patients with liver-limited metastases from GEP-NENs. Both internal and external validation demonstrated excellent discrimination and calibration of our nomogram. Based on this prognostic model, clinicians could develop more personalized treatment strategies and surveillance protocols.

Perspectives on the diagnostic, predictive and prognostic markers of neuroendocrine neoplasms (Review)

Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) are a heterogeneous group of rare tumors with different types of physiology and prognosis. Therefore, prognostic information, including morphological differentiation, grade, tumor stage and primary location, are invaluable and contribute to the formulation of treatment decisions. Biomarkers that are currently used, including chromogranin A (CgA), serotonin and neuron-specific enolase, are singular parameters that cannot be used to accurately predict variables associated with tumor growth, including proliferation, metabolic rate and metastatic potential. In addition, site-specific biomarkers, such as insulin and gastrin, cannot be applied to all types of NENs. The clinical application of broad-spectrum markers, as it is the case for CgA, remains controversial despite being widely used. Due to limitations of the currently available mono-analyte biomarkers, recent studies were conducted to explore novel parameters for NEN diagnosis, prognosis, therapy stratification and evaluation of treatment response. Identification of prognostic factors for predicting NEN outcome is a critical requirement for the planning of adequate clinical management. Advances in ‘liquid’ biopsies and genomic analysis techniques, including microRNA, circulating tumor DNA or circulating tumor cells and sophisticated biomathematical analysis techniques, such as NETest or molecular image-based biomarkers, are currently under investigation as potentially novel tools for the management of NENs in the future. Despite these recent findings yielding promising observations, further research is necessary. The present review therefore summarizes the existing knowledge and recent advancements in the exploration of biochemical markers for NENs, with focus on gastroenteropancreatic-neuroendocrine tumors.

Patterns and predictors of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor prognosis: Are no two leaves alike?

Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs) are heterogeneous; thus, individual prognostic prediction is important. Clinicopathological features, like TNM stage, grade, and differentiation, are independent clinical predictors. However, single predictors are insufficient, as patients sharing similar clinicopathological features usually show distinct prognoses. Accordingly, novel nomograms and risk stratifications have been developed for more accurate PanNET prognostic prediction. Moreover, the exploration of molecular mechanisms has identified novel prognostic predictors for PanNET. Multi-analyte assays of molecular biomarkers provide a deeper understanding of PanNET features; however, the priority, and the optimal combination of classic and novel predictors for PanNET prognosis prediction remain unclear. In this review, we summarized the patterns and predictors of PanNET prognosis and discussed their clinical utility; we emphasized that PanNET at different stages have different superior predictor, and that multi-analyte assays are more sensitive than mono-analyte biomarkers. Therefore, combined biomarkers improve the accuracy of surveillance and optimize decision-making in clinical practice.

Risk Factors and Predictive Score Model for Early Recurrence After Curative Surgery in Patients With Poorly Differentiated Gastrointestinal Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

Purpose: Studies on early recurrence in gastrointestinal neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC) and mixed adenoneuroendocrine carcinoma (MANEC) are lacking and risk factors related to early recurrence are not clear. We evaluated risk factors for early recurrence in such patients and developed a predictive scoring model.

Methods: Patients undergoing curative surgery for GI-NEC or MANEC between January 2010 and January 2019 were included. Early recurrence was defined as recurrence within 12 months after surgery. Risk factors for early recurrence were identified using logistic regression.

Results: Of the 80 included patients, 27 developed early recurrence and 53 had no early recurrence. Independent risk factors associated with early recurrence included tumor location in the midgut/hindgut [odds ratio (OR) = 5.077, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.058–24.352, p = 0.042], alkaline phosphatase (ALP) >80 (OR = 5.331, 95% CI 1.557–18.258, p = 0.008), and lymph node ratio (LNR) >0.25 (OR = 6.578, 95% CI 1.971–21.951, p = 0.002). Risk scores were assigned to tumor location (foregut, 0; midgut/hindgut, 1), ALP (≤80, 0; >80, 1), and LNR (≤0.25, 0; >0.25, 1). Patients with a high risk (score 2–3) for early recurrence had significantly shorter disease-free survival and overall survival than those with low- (score 0) and intermediate risks (score 1) (both p < 0.001). The novel scoring model had superior predictive efficiency for early recurrence over TNM staging (area under the curve 0.795 vs. 0.614, p = 0.003).

Conclusion: Tumor location, preoperative ALP, and LNR were independent factors associated with early recurrence after curative surgery for GI-NEC or MANEC. The risk scoring model developed based on these three factors shows superior predictive efficiency.

Prognostic nomogram based on the metastatic lymph node ratio for gastric neuroendocrine tumour: SEER database analysis

Objective

The prediction of survival of gastric neuroendocrine tumours (g-NETs) is controversial. Prognostic effects of the metastatic lymph node ratio (LNR) in patients with g-NET were explored, and a nomogram was plotted to predict the survival rates of patients.

Methods

A longitudinal study conducted on the basis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The association between LNR and survival were investigated by using Pearson correlation and Cox regression. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates were predicted with the help of nomograms.

Results

A total of 315 patients with g-NET diagnosed from 2004 to 2015 were included in this study. LNR was discovered to have a negative correlation with OS and CSS (Pearson correlation coefficients: 0.343 (p<0.001) and 0.389 (p<0.001), respectively). The multivariate analyses indicated age, tumour site, differentiation, T staging, M staging, chemotherapy and LNR to be independent prognostic factors for both OS and CSS. Surgery was also a prognostic determinant for CSS (p=0.003). Concordance indices of the nomograms for OS and CSS were higher than those of the TNM classification (0.772 vs 0.730 and 0.807 vs 0.768, respectively). As per the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, predictive ability of the nomograms for survival of 1, 3 and 5 years was all better than that of TNM classification.

Conclusions

LNR is an independent predictor of g-NETs. The nomograms plotted in this study have a satisfying predictive ability of survival risks and are capable of guiding tailored treatment strategies for patients with g-NET.

Survey of surgical resections for neuroendocrine liver metastases: A project study of the Japan Neuroendocrine Tumor Society (JNETS)

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Hepatic resection is considered the treatment of choice for neuroendocrine liver metastases (NELM). However, the safety and efficacy of resection have not been fully evaluated using a large cohort. The aim of the present study was to collect real-world data regarding hepatic resections for NELM.

METHODS

A retrospective, multicenter survey was conducted. The background characteristics of patients undergoing an initial hepatic resection for NELM, the operative details, pathological findings, and patient outcomes were investigated.

RESULTS

A total of 222 patients were enrolled from 30 institutions. The primary tumor site was the pancreas in 58.6%, and the presentation of NELM was synchronous in 63.1% of the cases. Concomitant resection of the primary tumor and liver metastases was performed for 66.4% of the synchronous metastases, and the 90-day morbidity and mortality rates were 12.6% and 0.9%, respectively. The operations resulted in R2 resections in 26.1% of the cases, and 83.4% of the patients experienced recurrence after R0/1 resections. However, the patients were treated using multiple modalities after R2 resection or recurrence, and the overall survival rate was relatively favorable, with 5-year and 10-year survival rates of 70.2%, and 43.4%, respectively. Univariable and multivariable analyses identified the tumor grading (G3) of the primary tumor as a significant prognostic factor for both the recurrence-free and overall survivals.

CONCLUSIONS

The present data confirmed the safety of the surgical resection of NELM. Although recurrences were frequent, the survival outcomes after resection were favorable when a multi-disciplinary treatment approach was used.

Development and validation of a simple-to-use nomogram to predict liver metastasis in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms: a large cohort study

Background

Liver metastasis is an important prognostic factor for pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (pNENs), but the relationship between the clinical features of patients with pNEN and liver metastasis remains undetermined. The aim of this study was to establish and validate an easy-to-use nomogram to predict liver-metastasis in patients with pNEN.

Methods

We obtained the clinicopathologic data of 2960 patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2016. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were done to screen out independent influencing factors to establish the nomogram. The calibration plots and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to compare the novel model with the conventional predictive methods.

Results

A total of 2960 patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms were included in the study. Among these, 1974 patients were assigned to the training group and 986 patients to the validation group. Multivariate logistic regression identified, tumor size, grade, other site metastasis, T stage and N stage as independent risk factors. The calibration plot showed good discriminative ability in the training and validation groups, with C-indexes of 0.850 for the training cohort and 0.846 for the validation cohort. The AUC values were 0.850 (95% CI 0.830–0.869) and 0.839 (95% CI 0.812–0.866), respectively. The nomogram total points (NTP) had the potential to stratify patients into low risk, medium risk and high risk (P < 0.001). Finally, comparing the nomogram with traditional prediction methods, the DCA curve showed that the nomogram had better net benefit.

Conclusions

Our nomogram has a good ability to predict liver metastasis of pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms, and it can guide clinicians to provide suitable prevention and treatment measures for patients with medium- and high-risk liver metastasis.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01685-w.

Outcomes of Simultaneous Resection of Small Bowel Neuroendocrine Tumors with Synchronous Liver Metastases

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated the short- and long-term outcomes of synchronous resection of liver metastases (LM) from small bowel neuroendocrine tumors (SB-NET).

METHODS

A retrospective review of patients undergoing resection for LMs from SB-NETs from January 1997 and December 2018 was performed.

RESULTS

There were 44 patients with synchronous SB-NET and LMs. Perioperative and 90-day mortality values were zero, and the morbidity rate was 27%. The median overall survival (OS) was 128.4 months (CI 95% 74.0-161.5 months) with 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates of 100%, 83%, 79%, and 60%, respectively. Not achieving surgical treatment for LM was the unique independent factor for survival (HR 6.50; CI 95% 1.54-27.28; p = 0.01) in patients with unresected LMs having OS and 10-year survival rates (42 months, 33%) versus patients undergoing liver resection (152 months, 66%)(p = 0.0008). The recurrence rate was 81.8% and associated with longer OS and 5-year survival rates when limited to the liver [223 months (61%) vs 94 months (87%)].

CONCLUSIONS

Simultaneous resection of SB-NETs with synchronous LMs was safe and associated with considerable long-term survival even in the presence of bilobar disease. However, recurrence after resection was common (81%) but associated with longer survival rates when limited to the liver.

Currently available treatment options for neuroendocrine liver metastases

Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NEN) are frequently characterized by a high propensity for metastasis to the liver, which appears to be a dominant site of distant-stage disease, affecting quality of life and overall survival. Liver surgery with the intention to cure is the treatment of choice for resectable neuroendocrine liver metastases (NELM), aiming to potentially prolong survival and ameliorate hormonal symptoms refractory to medical control. Surgical resection is indicated for patients with NELM from well-differentiated NEN, while its feasibility and complexity are largely dictated by the degree of liver involvement. As a result of advances in surgical techniques over the past decades, complex 1- and 2-stage, or repeat liver resections are performed safely and effectively by experienced surgeons. Furthermore, liver transplantation for the treatment of NELM should be anchored in a multimodal and multidisciplinary therapeutic strategy and restricted only to highly selected individual cases. A broad spectrum of interventional radiology treatments for NELM have recently been available, with expanding indications that are more applicable, as they are less limited by patient- and tumor-related parameters, being therefore important adjuncts or alternatives to surgery. Overall, liver-targeted treatment modalities may precede the administration of systemic molecular targeted agents and chemotherapy for patients with liver-dominant metastatic disease; these appear to be a crucial component of multimodal management of patients with NEN. In the present review, we discuss surgical and non-surgical liver-targeted treatment approaches for NELM, each complementing the other, with a view to assisting physicians in optimizing multimodal NEN patient care.

Nomograms predict survival of patients with small bowel adenocarcinoma: a SEER-based study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) is a rare malignant tumor with a poor prognosis. Most patients with SBA are diagnosed with advanced-stage disease. Due to the lack of randomized controlled trials and prospective studies, it is difficult to predict the prognosis of patients with SBA. Thus, this study aimed to establish a prognostic nomogram for evaluating the prognosis of SBA patients.

METHODS

The clinical features and follow-up data of all patients diagnosed with SBA during 2004-2016 were summarized from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We separated these patients into training and validation groups. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic variables for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). According to the independent risk factors, we established nomograms and used the calibration curves to evaluate the accuracy.

RESULTS

The data of 3301 patients with SBA were collected from the SEER database. The multivariate analysis showed that age, marital status, tumor site, grade, TNM stage and surgical history were associated with CSS and OS (P < 0.05). Based on these results, we established nomograms of CSS and OS that can predict the 3- and 5-year survival rates of SBA patients (C-index > 0.7). The calibration curves showed that the predicted survival was very close to the actual survival.

CONCLUSION

We analyzed the independent risk factors for prognosis of SBA patients, and established nomograms to predict the 3- and 5-year survival rates of OS and CSS. These new prognostic tools can help clinicians to predict the survival of patients with SBA, further to guide treatment strategy.

Prognostic factors in patients with gallbladder adenocarcinoma identified using competing-risks analysis: A study of cases in the SEER database

A competing-risks model was developed in this study to identify the significant prognostic factors and evaluate the cumulative incidence of cause-specific death in gallbladder adenocarcinoma (GBAC), with the aim of providing guidance on effective clinical treatments.All patients with GBAC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 1973 to 2015 were identified. The potential prognostic factors were identified using competing-risks analyses implemented using the R and SAS statistical software packages. We calculated the cumulative incidence function (CIF) for cause-specific death and death from other causes at each time point. The Fine-Gray proportional-subdistribution-hazards model was then applied in univariate and multivariate analyses to test the differences in CIF between different groups and identify independent prognostic factors.This study included 3836 eligible patients who had been enrolled from 2004 to 2015 in the SEER database. The univariate analysis indicated that age, race, AJCC stage, RS, tumor size, SEER historic stage, grade, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy and adjuvant therapy (RCT, SRT, SCT and SRCT) were significant factors affecting the probability of death due to GBAC. The multivariate analysis indicated that age, race, AJCC stage, RS status, tumor size, grade and SRT were independent prognostic factors affecting GBAC cancer-specific death. A nomogram model was constructed based on multivariate models for death related to GBAC.We have constructed the first competing-risks nomogram for GBAC. The model was found to perform well. This novel validated prognostic model may facilitate the choosing of beneficial treatment strategies and help when predicting survival.

Residual tumor volume discriminates prognosis after surgery for neuroendocrine liver metastasis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

We developed objective measurements of preoperative and residual tumor volume, and debulking rate, to evaluate their prognostic value for neuroendocrine liver metastasis (NELM).

METHODS

Seventy-three patients who underwent surgery for NELM were analyzed retrospectively. Indices of preoperative and postoperative residual tumor volume (pre-volume index [VI] and post-VI) were calculated as the sum of the cubes of individual tumor diameters on preoperative and postoperative imaging, respectively. The debulking rate (%) was calculated as 100 - 100 × post-VI/pre-VI. The classification and regression trees method was used to classify pre-VI and post-VI.

RESULTS

Overall survival (OS) was discriminated by preoperative tumor volume (5-year OS rates, 87.8% for low pre-VI and 60.1% for high pre-VI; P = .037) and residual tumor volume (5-year OS rates, 88.1% for low post-VI and 24.8% for high post-VI; P < .001). In contrast, debulking rates of 100%, ≥90%, and <90% did not discriminate OS (5-year OS rates, 88.0%, 61.9%, and 58.9%, respectively, not significant). In multivariate analysis, residual tumor volume (high post-VI, hazard ratio, 6.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-32.3) was an independent prognostic factor for OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Objective measurement of tumor volume demonstrates that residual tumor volume is prognostic after surgery for NELM.

A prognostic nomogram in patients with distant metastasis of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: a population-based study

Aim: Prognostic factors in patients with distant metastatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) remain uncertain. The purpose of our study is to establish a nomogram to predict survival outcomes in patients with metastatic PNETs. Methods: A total of 878 patients diagnosed with PNETs in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database between 2004 and 2016 were retrospectively identified. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis with log-rank test was used to analyze survival outcomes. The nomogram was established after a univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. Results: The independent prognostic variables, including age, tumor grade and primary site surgery were applied to develop a nomogram. The original concordance index was 0.773 (95% CI: 0.751-0.795), and the bias-corrected concordance index was 0.769 (95% CI: 0.748-0.791). The internal calibration curves showed well consistency and veracity in predicting cancer-specific survival probabilities. Conclusion: A nomogram was constructed and verified to predict survival outcomes in patients with distant-stage PNETs.

A novel and validated nomogram to predict overall survival for gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms

BACKGROUND

This study aims to develop and validate an effective nomogram to estimate the individual outcome of patients with Gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms (G-NENs).

METHODS

A total of 260 patients diagnosed with G-NENs at two medical centers were included, with 156 patients allocated as training set and 104 patients as validation. Predictive nomogram was constructed based on multivariate analyses using RMS package in R version. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were analyzed by C-index, risk group stratification and calibration curve, which was compared with other predictive systems for G-NENs.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, age, Ki-67, mitoses, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, serum tumor marker and distant metastasis were significantly associated with overall survival. The constructed prognostic nomogram demonstrated a good calibration and discrimination value with 0.884 and 0.852 C-indices in training and validation dataset. Compare to World Health Organization (WHO) grading system (C-indices=0.760 and 0.732) and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (C-indices=0.747 and 0.811), the nomogram displayed a better predictive accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel prognostic nomogram showed superior predictive value in overall survival of G-NENs. It might be a useful tool for clinicians in estimating individual survival in G-NENs patients.

Liver transplantation in patients with liver metastases from neuroendocrine tumors

The prevalence of metastatic disease in neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) is very high (60-80%) and cancer-related death among these patients is generally due to metastatic disease. Numerous treatment options for cure and disease control have been investigated for patients with neuroendocrine liver metastases (NELM). Despite the success of liver directed therapy on slowing tumor progression and palliating symptoms, the chance of being cured by liver resection is 40-50% and only roughly 20% of patients have potentially resectable disease. As such, there has been interest in liver transplantation (LT) as a potentially curative option for patients with unresectable disease. Several criteria have been proposed in order to balance long-term outcomes of patients with NELM and the problem of organ shortage including the Milan-NET criteria, the UNOS criteria and the ENETS guidelines. In the most representative studies, recurrence rate after LT has ranged from 30% to 60% with a 5-year OS ranging from 50% to 97%. This large variability is due to the retrospective nature of the studies available, which used different inclusion criteria. As such, outcomes and the prognostic factors associated with LT for NELM warrant further investigation.

The impact of surgery in metastatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: a competing risk analysis

Aim The role of surgery in the treatment of metastatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) was controversial. The objectives of this study were to illustrate the impact of surgery in improving the prognosis of patients with metastatic PNETs and build nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) based on a large population-based cohort. Methods Patients diagnosed with metastatic PNETs between 2004 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were retrospectively collected. Nomograms for estimating OS and CSS were established based on Cox regression model and Fine and Grey's model. The precision of the nomograms was evaluated and compared using concordance index (C-index) and the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Results The study cohort included 1966 patients with metastatic PNETs. It was shown that the surgery provided survival benefit for all groups of patients with metastatic PNETs. In the whole study cohort, 1-, 2- and 3-year OS and CSS were 51.5, 37.1 and 29.4% and 53.0, 38.9 and 31.1%, respectively. The established nomograms were well calibrated, and had good discriminative ability, with C-indexes of 0.773 for OS prediction and 0.774 for CSS prediction. Conclusions Patients with metastatic PNETs could benefit from surgery when the surgery tolerance was acceptable. The established nomograms could stratify patients who were categorized as tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) IV stage into groups with diverse prognoses, showing better discrimination and calibration of the established nomograms, compared with 8th TNM stage system in predicting OS and CSS for patients with metastatic PNETs.

Liver Resection for Neuroendocrine Tumor Liver Metastases Within Milan Criteria for Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

The role of liver transplant (LT) for neuroendocrine liver metastasis (NELM) has not been completely defined. While international guidelines included LT as a potential treatment for highly selected patients with advanced NELM, recently, LT has been proposed as an alternative curative treatment for NELM for patients meeting restrictive criteria (Milan criteria).

METHODS

Using a multi-institutional cohort of patients undergoing liver resection for NELM, the long-term outcomes of patients meeting Milan criteria (resected NET drained by the portal system, stable disease/response to therapies for at least 6 months, metastatic diffusion to < 50% of the total liver volume, a confirmed histology of low-grade, and ≤ 60 years) were investigated.

RESULTS

Among the 238 patients included in the study, 28 (12%) patients met the Milan criteria for LT with a 5-year OS of 83%. Furthermore, among patients meeting Milan criteria, subsets of patients with favorable clinic-pathological characteristics had 5-year OS rates greater than 90% including G1 patients (5-year OS, 92%), patients undergoing minor liver resection (5-year OS, 94%), patients with low number of NELM (1-2 NELM), and small tumor size (< 3 cm) (for both groups of patients, 5-year OS, 100%).

CONCLUSIONS

In our series, only 12% of patients met Milan criteria, and the 5-year OS after liver resection for this small selected group of patients was comparable with that reported in the literature for patients undergoing LT for NELM within Milan criteria. While LT might be the optimal treatment for patients with unresectable NELM, surgical resection should be the first option for patients with resectable NELM.

Measurement of circulating transcript levels (NETest) to detect disease recurrence and improve follow-up after curative surgical resection of well-differentiated pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

BACKGROUND

Recurrence of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNET) after surgery is common. Strategies to detect recurrence have limitations. We investigated the role of clinical criteria and the multigene polymerase chain reaction-based NETest during post-operative follow-up of pNET.

METHODS

We studied 3 groups of resections: R0 with no recurrence (n = 11), R0 with recurrence (n = 12), and R1 with no recurrence (n = 12). NETest levels (>40%) were compared with chromogranin A (CgA) and clinicopathological criteria (CC; grade, lymph node metastases, size). Nonparametric, receiver operating characteristics, logistic regression, and predictive feature importance analyses were performed.

RESULTS

NETest was higher in R0 with recurrence (56 ± 8%) compared with R1 with no recurrence (39 ± 6%) and R0 with no recurrence (28 ± 6%, P < .005). NETest positively correlated with recurrence (area under the curve: 0.82), CgA was not (area under the curve: 0.51 ± 0.09). Multiple regression analysis defined factor impact as highest for NETest (P < .005) versus CC (P < .03) and CgA (P = .23). NETest gave false positive or negative recurrence in 18% using a 40% cutoff. Logistic regression modeling of CC was 83% accurate; it was 91% when the NETest was included. Combining CC and NETest was approximately 2× more effective than individual CC alone (increase in R ² value from 43% to 80%).

CONCLUSIONS

A multigene blood test facilitates effective identification of pNET recurrence, prediction of disease relapse, and outperforms CgA.

Can echogenic appearance of neuroendocrine liver metastases on intraoperative ultrasonography predict tumor biology and prognosis?

BACKGROUND

Determining the biologic behavior of neuroendocrine liver metastases (NELM) is important when managing patients with this disease. We sought to define the intraoperative ultrasound (IOUS) characteristics of NELM and correlate with tumor biology and prognosis.

METHODS

Prospective data on patients who underwent IOUS and surgical intervention for NELM were collected, with images digitally recorded, blindly reviewed, and scored for echogenicity. Association between sonographic appearance, clinicopathologic factors and long-term outcomes was analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 216 lesions from 65 patients were analyzed, with IOUS identifying at least one additional metastasis than preoperative imaging in 41 patients (63.1%) with subsequent change of surgical strategy in 14 patients (21.5%). Most NELM appeared hypoechoic (49.1%) on IOUS, while 38.9% demonstrated hyperechogenicity and 12% isoechogenicity. Hypoechoic lesions were associated with poorly-differentiated tumor (p = 0.005) and smaller tumor size (p = 0.004). Patients with hypoechoic metastases demonstrated significantly shorter median disease-free survival compared with isoechoic or hyperechoic lesions (9 vs 20 vs 18 months, p = 0.049).

DISCUSSION

In addition to improved tumor detection of NELM, IOUS was found to be associated with features of tumor biology, specifically tumor grade and risk-of-recurrence. Echogenicity should be considered a potential prognostic factor in the management of patients with neuroendocrine tumors.

Surgical management of neuroendocrine tumor-associated liver metastases: a review

Liver metastasis is common among patients who suffer from neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). Radical surgery is the standard treatment whenever possible but there is still controversies concerning the treatment strategies such as resection of the primary, role of debulking surgery, liver transplantation (LT) and neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapies. This article aims to review the current evidence available, together with some latest updates, focusing on the surgical management.

Nomogram individually predicts the overall survival of patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms

Background:

The current study aimed to establish a novel nomogram to predict the overall survival of individual Chinese patients with gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP-NENs). Furthermore, this study sought to externally validate this nomogram using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

Methods:

The records of 1183 patients with GEP-NENs treated at five high-capacity institutions in China between 2005 and 2015 were retrospectively analysed. In addition, 10 236 GEP-NEN cases from the SEER database were included as an external validation set.

Results:

A multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards (PHs) regression was performed, and a nomogram was constructed. Discrimination, calibration, and external validation were performed using the SEER data set. The multivariate Cox model indicated that age, tumour size, differentiation, lymph node metastases, and distant metastases were independent covariates associated with survival. With respect to the training set, the nomogram exhibited better discrimination power than TNM classification (Harrell’s concordance index (C-index): 0.837 vs 0.784, P=0.006). Discrimination was also excellent and superior to that of TNM classification for the SEER-based validation set (C-index: 0.808 vs 0.717, P<0.001). The calibrated nomogram predicted a survival rate that closely corresponded to the actual survival rate.

Conclusions:

We developed a nomogram that predicted the 3- and 5-year overall survival rates of patients with GEP-NENs. Validation revealed excellent discrimination and calibration for this nomogram, suggesting that it exhibits satisfactory clinical utility that might improve individualised predictions of survival risks and lead to the creation of additional clinical therapies.

Neuroendocrine liver metastasis: The chance to be cured after liver surgery

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Neuroendocrine liver metastasis tumors (NELM) are a heterogeneous group of neoplasms with varied histologic features and a wide range of clinical behaviors. We aimed to identify the fraction of patients cured after liver surgery for NELM.

METHODS

Cure fraction models were used to analyze 376 patients who underwent hepatectomy with curative intent for NELM.

RESULTS

The median and 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) were 4.5 years and 46%, respectively. The probability of being cured from NELM by liver surgery was 44%; the time to cure was 5.1 years. In a multivariable cure model, type of neuroendocrine tumor (NET), grade of tumor differentiation, and rate of liver involvement resulted as independent predictors of cure. The cure fraction for patients with well differentiated NELM from gastrointestinal NET or a functional pancreatic NET, and with <50% of liver-involvement was 95%. Patients who had moderately/poorly differentiated NELM from a non-functional pancreatic NET, and with <50% of liver-involvement was 43%. In the presence of all the three unfavorable prognostic factors (nonfunctional PNET, liver involvement >50%, moderately/poorly differentiation), the cure fraction was 8%.

CONCLUSIONS

Statistical cure after surgery for NELM is possible, and allow for a more accurate prediction of long-term outcome among patients with NELM undergoing liver resection.