Commodity production as restoration driver in the Brazilian Amazon? Pasture re-agro-forestation with cocoa (Theobroma cacao) in southern Pará

Coupling remote sensing and eDNA to monitor environmental impact: A pilot to quantify the environmental benefits of sustainable agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon

Monitoring is essential to ensure that environmental goals are being achieved, including those of sustainable agriculture. Growing interest in environmental monitoring provides an opportunity to improve monitoring practices. Approaches that directly monitor land cover change and biodiversity annually by coupling the wall-to-wall coverage from remote sensing and the site-specific community composition from environmental DNA (eDNA) can provide timely, relevant results for parties interested in the success of sustainable agricultural practices. To ensure that the measured impacts are due to the environmental projects and not exogenous factors, sites where projects have been implemented should be benchmarked against counterfactuals (no project) and control (natural habitat) sites. Results can then be used to calculate diverse sets of indicators customized to monitor different projects. Here, we report on our experience developing and applying one such approach to assess the impact of shaded cocoa projects implemented by the Instituto de Manejo e Certificação Florestal e Agrícola (IMAFLORA) near São Félix do Xingu, in Pará, Brazil. We used the Continuous Degradation Detection (CODED) and LandTrendr algorithms to create a remote sensing-based assessment of forest disturbance and regeneration, estimate carbon sequestration, and changes in essential habitats. We coupled these remote sensing methods with eDNA analyses using arthropod-targeted primers by collecting soil samples from intervention and counterfactual pasture field sites and a control secondary forest. We used a custom set of indicators from the pilot application of a coupled monitoring framework called TerraBio. Our results suggest that, due to IMAFLORA's shaded cocoa projects, over 400 acres were restored in the intervention area and the community composition of arthropods in shaded cocoa is closer to second-growth forests than that of pastures. In reviewing the coupled approach, we found multiple aspects worked well, and we conclude by presenting multiple lessons learned.

Tree diversity in agroforestry systems of native fine-aroma cacao, Amazonas, Peru

Cocoa cultivation is of considerable economic and social importance to the Amazonas region and is commonly associated with forest species in the region. However, the diversification level and composition of cacao agroforestry systems in Peru are poorly understood. The objective of this study is, therefore, to describe the diversity of tree species in cocoa AFS by plantation age. Accordingly, the number of species of 15 plots covering a total of 1.5 hectares was recorded. Moderately low levels of tree species diversity were reported (H´ ranged 0.89-1.45). In total 17 species were reported throughout the study area. The most abundant botanical family was represented by a single Musa sp. species. The dissimilarity indices show a moderate similarity between the age ranges evaluated (over 62%). Additionally, the IVI indicates that the most important species are used for food and timber apart from providing shade, additionally major of this species are introduced intentionally for the farmers. Based on the observations, it may be concluded that the farmer's interest in obtaining further benefits from the plot, mostly economic benefits affect the diversification of cocoa agroforestry systems.

Climate change could reduce and spatially reconfigure cocoa cultivation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050

Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa's geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the "biomod2" library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring.

Elucidating Pathways and Discourses Linking Cocoa Cultivation to Deforestation, Reforestation, and Tree Cover Change in Nicaragua and Peru

Cocoa cultivation is labeled as a driver of both deforestation and reforestation, yet the extent of the phenomena varies at farm and landscape level and as a response to national and local contexts. In this study, we documented the main pathways and contexts behind cocoa cultivation in two sites with different histories of cocoa cultivation. We combined official statistics, land-use trajectory, satellite imagery, and the Q-analysis to explore the discourses of country experts in Nicaragua and Peru. The Q-statements were based on an analysis of a set of legal, institutional, social, and technical guidelines that the cocoa cultivation/sector influences or is influenced by. Based on the responses of national experts to 31 statements we found four discourses linking cocoa cultivation and reforestation and deforestation in each country-case study. The enabling and limiting conditions driving tree cover change were a combination of landscape configuration, governance, management/commercialization models, and farmer's knowledge. Overall, between 60 and 64% of the variance was explained by four discourse factors in each country. In Nicaragua, the conditions associated with reforestation were the cocoa-agroforestry model promoted by local organizations/NGOs, the existence of incentives, degree of technical knowledge, access to safe market, and availability of improved genetic material. The circumstances associated with deforestation were the age of the farmers, fluctuation of cocoa beans prices, low productivity of cocoa plantations, and weak legal environmental frameworks. Whereas, in Peru, the main factors connecting cocoa cultivation to reforestation were access to market, degree of experimentation in cocoa, the economic weight of cocoa on family's income, certification processes, the existence of incentives, and the level of organization/association of cocoa farmers. The elements linking cocoa farming to deforestation were the influence of stakeholders in the cocoa value chain, weak legal environmental frameworks, fluctuation of cocoa prices, the existence of private investors, and insecure land tenure rights. This article demonstrated the utility of discourse analysis, through its application to two contrasting country case-studies, to elucidate the conditions that might minimize the deforestation footprint of cocoa cultivation and maximize its role as an agent for reforestation/restoration in the agricultural landscape of cocoa-growing areas in Latin America.

Recovery of Forest and Phylogenetic Structure in Abandoned Cocoa Agroforestry in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil

Cocoa agroforests like the cabrucas of Brazil's Atlantic forest are among the agro-ecosystems with greatest potential for biodiversity conservation. Despite a global trend for their intensification, cocoa agroforests are also being abandoned for socioeconomic reasons especially on marginal sites, because they are incorporated in public or private protected areas, or are part of mandatory set-asides under Brazilian environmental legislation. However, little is known about phylogenetic structure, the processes of forest regeneration after abandonment and the conservation value of former cabruca sites. Here we compare the vegetation structure and composition of a former cabruca 30-40 years after abandonment with a managed cabruca and mature forest in the Atlantic forest region of Espirito Santo, Brazil. The forest in the abandoned cabruca had recovered a substantial part of its original structure. Abandoned cabruca have a higher density (mean ± CI95 %: 525.0 ± 40.3 stems per ha), basal area (34.0 ± 6.5 m² per ha) and species richness (148 ± 11.5 species) than managed cabruca (96.0 ± 17.7; 24.15 ± 3.9 and 114.5 ± 16.0, respectively) but no significant differences to mature forest in density (581.0 ± 42.2), basal area (29.9.0 ± 3.3) and species richness (162.6 ± 15.5 species). Thinning (understory removal) changes phylogenetic structure from evenness in mature forest to clustering in managed cabruca, but after 30-40 years abandoned cabruca had a random phylogenetic structure, probably due to a balance between biotic and abiotic filters at this age. We conclude that abandoned cocoa agroforests present highly favorable conditions for the regeneration of Atlantic forest and could contribute to the formation of an interconnected network of forest habitat in this biodiversity hotspot.

Richer histories for more relevant policies: 42 years of tree cover loss and gain in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia

Understandings of contemporary forest cover loss are critical for policy but have come at the expense of long-term, multidirectional analyses of land cover change. This is a critical gap given (i) profound reconfigurations in land use and land control over the past several decades and (ii) evidence of widespread 'woodland resurgence' throughout the tropics. In this study, we argue that recent advancements within the field of land change science provide new opportunities to address this gap. In turn, we suggest that multidecadal and multidirectional analyses of land cover change can facilitate richer social analyses of land cover change and more relevant conservation policies and practice. Our argument is grounded in a case study from Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. Using a novel analytical platform, Google Earth Engine, and open access to high-quality Landsat data, we map land cover change in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, from 1972 to 2014. We find that tree cover loss constitutes the single largest net change over the period 1972-2014 but that gross rates of tree cover gain were three times higher than gross loss rates from 1972 to 1995 and equivalent to loss rates from 1995 to 2014. We suggest the smallholder tree crop economy likely produced both forest loss and Imperata grassland restoration in this region. This case points to the need to expand rather than collapse the baselines used to study carbon and biodiversity change in tropical regions. It also demonstrates the possible utility of applying such methods to other regions.

From site-level to regional adaptation planning for tropical commodities: cocoa in West Africa

The production of tropical agricultural commodities, such as cocoa (Theobroma cacao) and coffee (Coffea spp.), the countries and communities engaged in it, and the industries dependent on these commodities, are vulnerable to climate change. This is especially so where a large percentage of the global supply is grown in a single geographical region. Fortunately, there is often considerable spatial heterogeneity in the vulnerability to climate change within affected regions, implying that local production losses could be compensated through intensification and expansion of production elsewhere. However, this requires that site-level actions are integrated into a regional approach to climate change adaptation. We discuss here such a regional approach for cocoa in West Africa, where 70 % of global cocoa supply originates. On the basis of a statistical model of relative climatic suitability calibrated on West African cocoa farming areas and average climate projections for the 2030s and 2050s of, respectively, 15 and 19 Global Circulation Models, we divide the region into three adaptation zones: (i) a little affected zone permitting intensification and/or expansion of cocoa farming; (ii) a moderately affected zone requiring diversification and agronomic adjustments of farming practices; and (iii) a severely affected zone with need for progressive crop change. We argue that for tropical agricultural commodities, larger-scale adaptation planning that attempts to balance production trends across countries and regions could help reduce negative impacts of climate change on regional economies and global commodity supplies, despite the institutional challenges that this integration may pose.