Modeling the implementation of universal coverage for HIV treatment as prevention and its impact on the HIV epidemic

AIDS-related mortality in Pará Province, Brazilian Amazon region: Spatial and temporal analysis

Despite considerable therapeutic advances in the care of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and an overall reduction of 47% in the AIDS mortality rate in the last decade, the AIDS-mortality rates remains high. The social determinants of health (SDH) have a direct influence on the dynamics of this phenomenon. However, changes in SDH caused by the implemented policies against HIV have been poorly investigated. Moreover, the Brazilian rainforest has had the highest and continuously increasing AIDS mortality rate in Brazil since the 1980s. In this study, AIDS mortality in a province of the Brazilian rainforest was examined by using temporal and spatial analyses.

METHODS

In this ecological study, data from 2007 to 2018 were extracted from the Mortality Information System provided by the State Department of Public Health of Pará. For the temporal analysis, the integrated autoregressive model of moving average (ARIMA) and locally weighted polynomial regression (STLF) were used to forecast AIDS mortality from 2019 to 2022. For the spatial analysis, spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression (GWR) analyses were employed.

RESULTS

The samples consisted of 6,498 notifications for AIDS-related deaths. From 2007 to 2013, the AIDS mortality rates showed an upward trend, followed by a stabilization until 2018 and an upward forecasted trend from 2019 to 2022. High mortality rates and high-high clusters were found in economic pole municipalities. Furthermore, AIDS mortality risk was directly associated with per capita income and demographic density, except in the southwestern region of Pará, which exhibited an inverse association with population density.

CONCLUSION

Although the policies against HIV may have contributed to the stabilization of AIDS mortality rates from 2013 in Pará, the upward forecasted trend until 2022 raises an alert and concern to health authorities to provide reinforcement of the policies. The geographic variability of AIDS mortality promoted by SDH provides subsidies to health authorities to implement SDH-focused strategies for AIDS mortality reduction.

Using Microsimulation Modeling to Inform EHE Implementation Strategies in Los Angeles County

BACKGROUND

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is essential to ending HIV. Yet, uptake remains uneven across racial and ethnic groups. We aimed to estimate the impacts of alternative PrEP implementation strategies in Los Angeles County.

SETTING

Men who have sex with men, residing in Los Angeles County.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model of HIV transmission, with inputs from key local stakeholders. With this model, we estimated the 15-year (2021-2035) health and racial and ethnic equity impacts of 3 PrEP implementation strategies involving coverage with 9000 additional PrEP units annually, above the Status-quo coverage level. Strategies included PrEP allocation equally (strategy 1), proportionally to HIV prevalence (strategy 2), and proportionally to HIV diagnosis rates (strategy 3), across racial and ethnic groups. We measured the degree of relative equalities in the distribution of the health impacts using the Gini index (G) which ranges from 0 (perfect equality, with all individuals across all groups receiving equal health benefits) to 1 (total inequality).

RESULTS

HIV prevalence was 21.3% in 2021 [Black (BMSM), 31.1%; Latino (LMSM), 18.3%, and White (WMSM), 20.7%] with relatively equal to reasonable distribution across groups (G, 0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.34). During 2021-2035, cumulative incident infections were highest under Status-quo (n = 24,584) and lowest under strategy 3 (n = 22,080). Status-quo infection risk declined over time among all groups but remained higher in 2035 for BMSM (incidence rate ratio, 4.76; 95% CI: 4.58 to 4.95), and LMSM (incidence rate ratio, 1.74; 95% CI: 1.69 to 1.80), with the health benefits equally to reasonably distributed across groups (G, 0.32; 95% CI: 0.28 to 0.35). Relative to Status-quo, all other strategies reduced BMSM-WMSM and BMSM-LMSM disparities, but none reduced LMSM-WMSM disparities by 2035. Compared to Status-quo, strategy 3 reduced the most both incident infections (% infections averted: overall, 10.2%; BMSM, 32.4%; LMSM, 3.8%; WMSM, 3.5%) and HIV racial inequalities (G reduction, 0.08; 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.14).

CONCLUSIONS

Microsimulation models developed with early, continuous stakeholder engagement and inputs yield powerful tools to guide policy implementation.

A Framework for Assessing the Impact of Disease Treatment

OBJECTIVES

To address ongoing pandemics and epidemics, policy makers need good data on not only the need for treatments but also on new interventions' impacts. We present a mathematical model of medicines' health consequences using disease surveillance data to inform health policy and scientific research that can be extended to address the current public health crisis.

METHODS

The Global Health Impact (GHI) index calculates the amount of mortality and morbidity averted by key medicines for malaria, TB, HIV/AIDS, and several NTDs using data on outcomes in the absence of treatment, treatment effectiveness, and access to needed treatment. Country-level data were extracted from data repositories maintained by the Global Burden of Disease study, Global Health Observatory, WHO, UNICEF, and a review of the scientific literature.

RESULTS

The index aggregates drug impact by country, disease, company, and treatment regimen to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of treatment impact and can be extended across multiple diseases. Approximately 62 million life-years were saved by key drugs that target malaria, TB, HIV/AIDS, and NTDs in our latest model year. Malaria and TB medicines together were responsible for alleviating 95% of this burden, while HIV/AIDS and NTD medicines contribute 4% and 1% respectively. However, the burden of disease in the absence of treatment was nearly evenly distributed among malaria, TB, and HIV/AIDS.

CONCLUSIONS

A common framework that standardizes health impact across diseases and their interventions can aid in identifying current shortcomings on a global scale.

Factors influencing the scale-up of public health interventions in low- and middle-income countries: a qualitative systematic literature review

To achieve universal health coverage, the scale-up of high impact public health interventions is essential. However, scale-up is challenging and often not successful. Therefore, a systematic review was conducted to provide insights into the factors influencing the scale-up of public health interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Two databases were searched for studies with a qualitative research component. The GRADE-CERQual approach was applied to assess the confidence in the evidence for each key review finding. A multi-level perspective on transition was applied to ensure a focus on vertical scale-up for sustainability. According to this theory, changes in the way of organizing (structure), doing (practice) and thinking (culture) need to take place to ensure the scale-up of an intervention. Among the most prominent factors influencing scale-up through changes in structure was the availability of financial, human and material resources. Inadequate supply chains were often barriers to scale-up. Advocacy activities positively influenced scale-up, and changes in the policy environment hindered or facilitated scale-up. The most outstanding factors influencing scale-up through changes in practice were the availability of a strategic plan for scale-up and the way in which training and supervision was conducted. Furthermore, collaborations such as community participation and partnerships facilitated scale-up, as well as the availability of research and monitoring and evaluation data. Factors influencing scale-up through a change in culture were less prominent in the literature. While some studies articulated the acceptability of the intervention in a given sociocultural environment, more emphasis was placed on the importance of stakeholders feeling a need for a specific intervention to facilitate its scale-up. All identified factors should be taken into account when scaling up public health interventions in LMICs. The different factors are strongly interlinked, and most of them are related to one crucial first step: the development of a scale-up strategy before scaling up.

Identifying missed clinical opportunities for the earlier diagnosis of HIV in Australia, a retrospective cohort data linkage study

Background

Treatment as prevention approaches for HIV require optimal HIV testing strategies to reduce undiagnosed HIV infections. In most settings, HIV testing strategies still result in unacceptably high rates of missed and late diagnoses. This study aimed to identify clinical opportunities for targeted HIV testing in persons at risk to facilitate earlier HIV diagnosis in New South Wales, Australia; and to assess the duration between the diagnosis of specific conditions and HIV diagnosis.

Methods

The Australian National HIV registry was linked to cancer diagnoses, notifiable condition diagnoses, emergency department presentations and hospital admissions for all HIV diagnoses between 1993 and 2012 in NSW. Date of HIV acquisition was estimated from back-projection models and people with a likely duration from infection to diagnosis of less than 180 days were excluded. Risk factors associated with clinical opportunities for the earlier diagnosis of HIV were identified.

Results

Sexually transmitted infection diagnoses (particularly gonorrhoea and syphilis) and some hospital admissions (mental health and drug-related diagnoses, and non-infective digestive disorder diagnoses) were prominent among people estimated to be living with undiagnosed HIV. The length of time between a clinical opportunity for the earlier HIV diagnosis and actual HIV diagnosis was 13.3 months for notifiable conditions, and 15.2 months for hospital admissions. People with lower CD4+ cell count at diagnosis, and older people were significantly less likely to have a missed opportunity for earlier HIV diagnosis.

Conclusions

Additional targeted clinical HIV testing strategies are warranted for people with gonorrhoea and syphilis; and hospital presentations or admissions for mental health, drug-related and gastrointestinal diagnoses.

Mathematical modelling to inform 'treat all' implementation in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Despite widespread uptake, only half of sub-Saharan African countries have fully implemented the World Health Organization's 'treat all' policy, hindering achievement of global HIV targets. We examined literature on mathematical modelling studies that sought to inform scale-up and implementation of 'treat all' in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review, a research synthesis to assess emerging evidence and identify gaps, of peer-reviewed literature, extracting study characteristics on 'treat all' policies and assumptions, setting, key populations, outcomes and findings. Studies were narratively summarised and potential gaps characterised.

RESULTS

We identified 16 studies examining 'treat all' alone (n=12) or with expanded testing (n=7) and/or care continuum improvements (n=6). Twelve studies examined 'treat all' for Southern African countries, while none did so for Central Africa. Four included the role of resistance; one evaluated any key population. A range of health and economic outcomes were reported, although fewer studies formally assessed budget impact. Fourteen studies involved co-authors with any in-country affiliation; one study also had co-authors with local government affiliation. Overall, 'treat all' improves health outcomes and is cost-effective compared to deferred HIV treatment; 'treat all' with expanded testing or care continuum improvements may provide further health benefits. However, studies generally used optimistic assumptions about the implementation of expanded testing or care continuum improvements.

CONCLUSIONS

The modelling literature demonstrates improved health and economic benefits of 'treat all'. Using mathematical modelling to inform real-world implementation of 'treat all' requires realistic assumptions about expanded testing and care continuum interventions across a wide range of settings and populations.

Impact and economic evaluation of a novel HIV service delivery model in rural Malawi

OBJECTIVE

We performed an impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of a novel HIV service delivery model in a high prevalence, remote district of Malawi with a population of 143 800 people.

DESIGN

A population-based retrospective analysis of 1-year survival rates among newly enrolled HIV-positive patients at 682 health facilities throughout Malawi, comparing facilities implementing the service delivery model (n = 13) and those implementing care-as-usual (n = 669).

METHODS

Through district-level health surveillance data, we evaluated 1-year survival rates among HIV patients newly enrolled between July 2013 and June 2014 - representing 129 938 patients in care across 682 health facilities - using a multilevel modeling framework. The model, focused on social determinants of health, was implemented throughout Neno District at 13 facilities and compared with facilities in all other districts. Activity-based costing was used to annualize financial and economic costs from a societal perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were expressed as quality-adjusted life-years gained.

RESULTS

The national average 1-year survival rate for newly enrolled antiretroviral therapy clients was 78.9%: this rate was 87.9% in Neno District, compared with 78.8% across all other districts in Malawi (P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval: 0.079-0.104). The economic cost of receiving care in Neno district (n = 6541 patients) was $317/patient/year, compared with an estimated $219/patient in other districts. This translated to $906 per quality-adjusted life-year gained.

CONCLUSION

Neno District's comprehensive model of care, featuring a strong focus on the community, is $98 more expensive per capita per annum but demonstrates superior 1-year survival rates, despite its remote location. Moreover, it should be considered cost-effective by traditional international standards.

The risk of HIV transmission at each step of the HIV care continuum among people who inject drugs: a modeling study

Background

People who inject drugs (PWID) are at continued risk for HIV in the U.S., and experience disparities across the HIV care continuum compared to other high-risk groups. Estimates of the risk of HIV transmission at each stage of the care continuum may assist in identifying public health priorities for averting incident infections among PWID, in addition to transmissions to sexual partners of PWID.

Methods

We created an agent-based model simulating HIV transmission and the HIV care continuum for PWID in New York City (NYC) in 2012. To account for sexual transmission arising from PWID to non-PWID, the simulation included the entire adult NYC population. Using surveillance data and estimates from the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance system, we simulated a dynamic sexual and injecting network. We estimated the proportion of HIV transmission events attributable to PWID in the following categories, those: without an HIV diagnosis (‘Undiagnosed’); diagnosed but not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) (‘Diagnosed − not on ART’); those who initiated ART but were not virally suppressed (‘Unsuppressed’); and, those who achieved viral suppression (‘Suppressed’).

Results

We estimated HIV incidence among PWID to be 113 per 100,000 person-years in 2012, with an overall incidence rate for the entire adult NYC population of 33 per 100,000 person-years. Despite accounting for only 33% of the HIV-infected PWID population, the Undiagnosed were associated with 52.6% (95% simulation interval [95% SI]: 47.1–57.0%) of total transmission events. The Diagnosed − not on ART population contributed the second-largest proportion of HIV transmissions, with 36.6% (95% SI: 32.2–41.5%). The Unsuppressed population contributed 8.7% (95% SI: 5.6–11.8%), and Suppressed 2.1% (95% SI: 1.1–3.9%), relatively little of overall transmission.

Conclusions

Among PWID in NYC, more than half (53%) of transmissions were from those who were unaware of their infection status and more than 36% were due to PWID who knew their status, but were not on treatment. Our results indicate the importance of early diagnosis and interventions to engage diagnosed PWID on treatment to further suppress population-level HIV transmission. Future HIV prevention research should focus on the elimination of identified and potential barriers to the testing, diagnosis, and retention of PWID on HIV treatment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4528-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

What does preexposure prophylaxis mean for treatment; what does treatment mean for preexposure prophylaxis?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Both preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and treatment as prevention (TaP) have shown promise in contributing to HIV prevention, in models, observational cohorts and in real-world intervention studies. They share similarities, in that they use the same drugs, toxicity markers and may be focused on the same key populations. How to implement PrEP is still the source of much debate; effective coverage with TaP, with recent data on the positive impact of treatment at high CD4 counts, is still an ongoing challenge.

RECENT FINDINGS

Treatment has demonstrated individual benefit even at CD4 counts above 350 cells/μl; PrEP has shown the effectiveness in real-world use.

SUMMARY

This article discusses the intersection of the two interventions, some programmatic misconceptions and complexities, and argues that PrEP is a nuanced and useful adjunct to HIV programmes. PrEP can be rolled out in a way that complements treatment, possibly even within primary health clinics, and may be required for the many people in whom TaP currently fails. PrEP will need constant adaptation so as to maintain programmatic and cost-effectiveness, as the epidemiology of HIV changes with TaP rollout and expansion as CD4 restrictions are lifted. Finally, the article also argues that so-called ethical concerns around competing resources are relatively easily resolved.

Individuals motivated to participate in adherence, care and treatment (imPACT): development of a multi-component intervention to help HIV-infected recently incarcerated individuals link and adhere to HIV care

Background

Policy-makers promote a seek, test, treat and retain (STTR) strategy to expand HIV testing, support linkage and engagement in care, and enhance the continuous use of antiretroviral therapy for those HIV-infected. This HIV prevention strategy is particularly appropriate in correctional settings where HIV screening and treatment are routinely available yet many HIV-infected individuals have difficulty sustaining sufficient linkage and engagement in care, disease management, and viral suppression after prison release.

Methods/design

Our research team developed Project imPACT (individuals motivated to Participate in Adherence, Care and Treatment), a multi-component approach for HIV-Infected recently incarcerated individuals that specifically targets their care linkage, retention, and medication adherence by addressing multiple barriers to care engagement after release. The ultimate goals of this intervention are to improve the health of HIV-infected individuals recently released from prison and reduce HIV transmission to their communities by maintaining viral suppression. This paper describes the intervention and technology development processes, based on best practices for intervention development and process evaluation. These processes included: 1) identifying the target population; 2) clarifying the theoretical basis for intervention design; 3) describing features of its foundational interventions; 4) conducting formative qualitative research; 5) integrating and adapting foundational interventions to create and refine intervention content based on target audience feedback. These stages along with the final intervention product are described in detail. The intervention is currently being evaluation and a two arm randomized, controlled trial in two US state prison systems.

Discussion

Based on a literature review, qualitative research, integration of proven interventions and behavioral theory, the final imPACT intervention focused on the transition period two to three months before and three months after prison release. It emphasized pre-release readiness, pre- and post-release supportive non-judgmental counseling, linking individuals to a HIV care clinic and technological supports through videos and text messages. This article provides a useful model for how researchers can develop, test, and refine multi-component interventions to address HIV care linkage, retention and adherence.

Clinical trial registration

NCT01629316, first registered 6-4-2012; last updated 6-9-2015.

Cost-effectiveness of community-based strategies to strengthen the continuum of HIV care in rural South Africa: a health economic modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Home HIV counselling and testing (HTC) achieves high coverage of testing and linkage to care compared with existing facility-based approaches, particularly among asymptomatic individuals. In a modelling analysis we aimed to assess the effect on population-level health and cost-effectiveness of a community-based package of home HTC in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

We parameterised an individual-based model with data from home HTC and linkage field studies that achieved high coverage (91%) and linkage to antiretroviral therapy (80%) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Costs were derived from a linked microcosting study. The model simulated 10,000 individuals over 10 years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for the intervention relative to the existing status quo of facility-based testing, with costs discounted at 3% annually.

FINDINGS

The model predicted implementation of home HTC in addition to current practice to decrease HIV-associated morbidity by 10–22% and HIV infections by 9–48% with increasing CD4 cell count thresholds for antiretroviral therapy initiation. Incremental programme costs were US$2·7 million to $4·4 million higher in the intervention scenarios than at baseline, and costs increased with higher CD4 cell count thresholds for antiretroviral therapy initiation; antiretroviral therapy accounted for 48–87% of total costs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per disability-adjusted life-year averted were $1340 at an antiretroviral therapy threshold of CD4 count lower than 200 cells per μL, $1090 at lower than 350 cells per μL, $1150 at lower than 500 cells per μL, and $1360 at universal access to antiretroviral therapy.

INTERPRETATION

Community-based HTC with enhanced linkage to care can result in increased HIV testing coverage and treatment uptake, decreasing the population burden of HIV-associated morbidity and mortality. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are less than 20% of South Africa's gross domestic product per person, and are therefore classed as very cost effective. Home HTC can be a viable means to achieve UNAIDS' ambitious new targets for HIV treatment coverage.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust.

Scaling up of HIV treatment for men who have sex with men in Bangkok: a modelling and costing study

BACKGROUND

Despite the high prevalence of HIV in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Bangkok, little investment in HIV prevention for MSM has been made. HIV testing and treatment coverage remains low. Through a pragmatic programme-planning approach, we assess possible service linkage and provision of HIV testing and antiretroviral treatment (ART) to MSM in Bangkok, and the most cost-effective scale-up strategy.

METHODS

We obtained epidemiological and service capacity data from the Thai National Health Security Office database for 2011. We surveyed 13 representative medical facilities for detailed operational costs of HIV-related services for sexually active MSM (defined as having sex with men in the past 12 months) in metropolitan Bangkok. We estimated the costs of various ART scale-up scenarios, accounting for geographical accessibility across Bangkok. We used an HIV transmission population-based model to assess the cost-effectiveness of the scenarios.

FINDINGS

For present HIV testing (23% [95% CI 17-36] of MSM at high risk in 2011) and ART provision (20% of treatment-eligible MSM at high risk on ART in 2011) to be sustained, a US$73·8 million ($51·0 million to $97·0 million) investment during the next decade would be needed, which would link an extra 43,000 (27,900-58,000) MSM at high risk to HIV testing and 5100 (3500-6700) to ART, achieving an ART coverage of 44% for MSM at high risk in 2022. An additional $55·3 million investment would link an extra 46,700 (30,300-63,200) MSM to HIV testing and 12,600 (8800-16,600) to ART, achieving universal ART coverage of this population by 2022. This increased investment is achievable within present infrastructure capacity. Consequently, an estimated 5100 (3600-6700) HIV-related deaths and 3700 (2600-4900) new infections could be averted in MSM by 2022, corresponding to a 53% reduction in deaths and a 35% reduction in infections from 2012 levels. The expansion would cost an estimated $10,809 (9071-13,274) for each HIV-related death, $14,783 (12,389-17,960) per new infection averted, and $351 (290-424) per disability-adjusted life-year averted.

INTERPRETATION

Spare capacity in Bangkok's medical facilities can be used to expand ART access for MSM with large epidemiological benefits. The expansion needs increased funding directed to MSM services, but given the epidemiological trends, is probably cost effective. Our modelling approach and outcomes are likely to be applicable to other settings.

FUNDING

World Bank Group and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Evaluating respondent-driven sampling as an implementation tool for universal coverage of antiretroviral studies among men who have sex with men living with HIV

INTRODUCTION

The TRUST model based on experimental and observational data posits that integration of HIV prevention and universal coverage of antiretroviral treatment at a trusted community venue provides a framework for achieving effective reduction in HIV-related morbidity and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV, as well as reducing HIV incidence. The analyses presented here evaluate the utility of respondent-driven sampling as an implementation tool for engaging MSM in the TRUST intervention.

METHODS

The TRUST integrated prevention and treatment model was established at a trusted community center serving MSM in Abuja, Nigeria. Five seeds have resulted in 3-26 waves of accrual between March 2013 and August 2014, with results presented here characterizing HIV burden and engagement in HIV care for 722 men across study recruitment waves. For analytic purposes, the waves were collapsed into 5 groups: 4 equally spaced (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19) and 1 ranging from the 20th to the 26th wave with significance assessed using Pearson χ2 test.

RESULTS

In earlier waves, MSM were more likely to have reported testing for HIV (82.9% in waves 0-4, 47.7% in waves 20-26; P < 0.01). In addition, biologically confirmed HIV prevalence decreased from an average of 59.1% to 42.9% (P < 0.05) in later waves. In earlier waves, about 80% of participants correctly reported their HIV status as compared with less than 25% in the later waves (P < 0.01). Finally, participants reporting being on ART decreased from 50% to 22.2% in later waves (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation science studies focused on demonstrating impact of universal HIV treatment programs among people living with HIV necessitate different accrual methods than those focused on preventing HIV acquisition. Here, respondent-driven sampling was shown to be an efficient method for reaching marginalized populations of MSM living with HIV in Nigeria, and engaging them in universal HIV treatment services.

Antiretroviral treatment coverage in a rural district in Tanzania--a modeling study using empirical data

Background

The Tanzanian Government started scaling up its antiretroviral treatment (ART) program from referral, regional and district hospitals to primary health care facilities in October 2004. In 2010, most ART clinics were decentralized to primary health facilities. ART coverage, i.e. people living with HIV (PLHIV) on combination treatment as a proportion of those in need of treatment, provides the basis for evaluating the efficiency of ART programs at national and district level. We aimed to evaluate adult ART and pre-ART care coverage by age and sex at CD4 < 200, < 350 and all PLHIV in the Rufiji district of Tanzania from 2006 to 2010.

Methods

The numbers of people on ART and pre-ART care were obtained from routinely aggregated, patient-level, cohort data from care and treatment centers in the district. We used ALPHA model to predict the number in need of pre-ART care and ART by age and sex at CD4 < 200 and < 350.

Results

Adult ART coverage among PLHIV increased from 2.9% in 2006 to 17.6% in 2010. In 2010, coverage was 20% for women and 14.8% for men. ART coverage was 30.2% and 38.7% in 2010 with reference to CD4 criteria of 350 and 200 respectively. In 2010, ART coverage was 0 and 3.4% among young people aged 15–19 and 20–24 respectively. ART coverage among females aged 35–39 and 40–44 was 30.6 and 35% respectively in 2010. Adult pre-ART care coverage for PLHIV of CD4 < 350 increased from 5% in 2006 to 37.7% in 2010. The age-sex coverage patterns for pre-ART care were similar to ART coverage for both CD4 of 200 and 350 over the study period.

Conclusions

ART coverage in the Rufiji district is unevenly distributed and far from the universal coverage target of 80%, in particular among young men. The findings in 2010 are close to the most recent estimates of ART coverage in 2013. To strive for universal coverage, both the recruitment of new eligible individuals to pre-ART and ART and the successful retention of those already on ART in the program need to be prioritized.