Outcome prediction with the revised American joint committee on cancer staging system and American thyroid association guidelines for thyroid cancer

Mining Prognostic Biomarkers of Thyroid Cancer Patients Based on the Immune-Related Genes and Development of a Reliable Prognostic Risk Model

PURPOSE

Tumor immunity serves an essential role in the occurrence and development of thyroid cancer (THCA). The aim of this study is to establish an immune-related prognostic model for THCA patients by using immune-related genes (IRGs).

METHODS

Wilcox test was used to screen the differentially expressed immune-related genes (DEIRGs) in THCA and normal tissues, then the DEIRGs related to prognosis were identified using univariate Cox regression analysis. According to The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort, we developed a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression prognostic model and performed validation analyses regard to the predictive value of the model in internal (TCGA) and external (International Cancer Genome Consortium) cohorts respectively. Finally, we analyzed the correlation among the prognostic model, clinical variables, and immune cell infiltration.

RESULTS

Eighty-two of 2,498 IRGs were differentially expressed between THCA and normal tissues, and 18 of them were related to prognosis. LASSO Cox regression analysis identified seven DEIRGs with the greatest prognostic value to construct the prognostic model. The risk model showed high predictive value for the survival of THCA in two independent cohorts. The risk score according to the risk model was positively associated with poor survival and the infiltration levels of immune cells, it can evaluate the prognosis of THCA patients independent of any other clinicopathologic feature. The prognostic value and genetic alternations of seven risk genes were evaluated separately.

CONCLUSION

Our study established and verified a dependable prognostic model associated with immune for THCA, both the identified IRGs and immune-related risk model were clinically significant, which is conducive to promoting individualized immunotherapy against THCA.

The proposed modification of TNM staging and therapeutic strategy for skip metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma: A multicenter retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Skip metastasis is a special type of lateral lymph node metastasis, which is not classified definitely by the eighth edition of the AJCC TNM staging system. The aim of the research was to study the prognosis of skip metastasis in PTC patients, and carry out a more appropriate N staging for skip metastasis.

METHODS

Study subjects were 3167 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), who underwent thyroidectomy at three clinical centers from 2016 to 2019. We identified two well-balanced cohorts matched on the basis of propensity score.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 42 months, recurrence occurred in 68 (4.3%) patients with lymph node metastasis. 34 cases recurred in 1120 patients with central lymph node metastasis (N1a), and 34 recurred in 461 patients with lateral lymph node metastasis (N1b), among which 73 patients were diagnosis with skip metastasis. The RFS of N1a was significantly lower than that of N1b (p < 0.001). After propensity-score matching, recurrence rate was significantly lower in the skip metastasis group than in the LLNM group (p = 0.039), whereas the rate was similar in the skip metastasis groups and the CLNM group (p = 0.29).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, our study indicated that, among patients with LLNM, those with positive skip metastasis showed significantly lower recurrence, exhibiting a similar rucurrence tendency as patients with CLNM. Thus, skip metastasis could be categorized into N1a stage rather than N1b stage based on the AJCC TNM staging system. The downstaging of skip metastasis may reveal more conservative treatment strategy.

Prognostic Utility of Tumor Stage versus American Thyroid Association Risk Class in Thyroid Cancer

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic strengths of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging and American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk classification in well-differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), and their implications in guiding medical decision-making and epidemiological study designs.

METHODS

The 2004-2017 National Cancer Database was queried for DTC patients. Cox proportional hazards (CPH) and Kaplan-Meier analyses modeled patient mortality and overall survival, respectively. Each CPH model was evaluated by its concordance index, measure of explained randomness (MER), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Overall, 134,226 patients were analyzed, with an average age of 48.1 ± 15.1 years (76.9% female). Univariate CPH models using AJCC staging demonstrated higher concordance indices, MERs, and AUCs than those using ATA risk classification (all p < 0.001). Multivariable CPH models using AJCC staging demonstrated higher concordance indices (p = 0.049), MERs (p = 0.046), and AUCs (p = 0.002) than those using ATA risk classification. The AICs of multivariable AJCC staging and ATA risk models were 7.564 × 104 and 7.603 × 104 , respectively. AJCC stage I tumors were associated with greater overall survival than those classified as ATA low risk, whereas AJCC stages II-III and stage IV tumors demonstrated worse survival than ATA intermediate- and high-risk tumors, respectively (all p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

AJCC staging may be a more predictive system for patient survival than ATA risk. The prognostic utility of these two systems converges when additional demographic and clinical factors are considered. AJCC staging was found to classify patients across a wider range of survival patterns than the ATA risk stratification system.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

4 Laryngoscope, 133:205-211, 2023.

Evaluating Disease Specific Survival Prediction of Risk Stratification and TNM Systems in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

BACKGROUND

Many countries have national guidelines for the management of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), including a risk stratification system to predict recurrence of disease. Studies whether these guidelines could also have relevance, beyond their original design, in predicting survival are lacking. Additionally, no studies evaluated these international guidelines in the same population, nor compared them to the TNM system. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic value of six stratification systems employed by ten International guidelines, and the TNM system with respect to predicting disease specific survival (DSS).

METHODS

We retrospectively studied adult patients with DTC from a Dutch university hospital. Patients were classified using the risk classification described in the British, Dutch, French, Italian, Polish, Spanish, European Society of Medical Oncology, European Thyroid Association, and 2009 and 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines, and the latest TNM system. DSS was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the statistical model performance using the C-index, AIC, BIC and PVE.

RESULTS

We included 857 patients with DTC (79% PTC, 21% FTC). Median follow-up was 9 years, and 67 (7.8%) died due to DTC. The Dutch guideline had the worst statistical model performance, while the 2009 ATA/2014 British guideline had the best. However, the (adapted) TNM system outperformed all stratification systems.

CONCLUSIONS

In a European population of patients with DTC, out of ten International guidelines employing six risk of recurrence stratification systems and one mortality based stratification system, our optimized age-adjusted TNM system (8th edition) outperformed all other systems.

Development and validation of a nomogram based on stromal score to predict progression-free survival of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma

Background

Growing evidence has proved that stromal cells, as the critical component of tumor microenvironment (TME), are closely associated with tumor's progression. However, the model based on stromal score to predict progression‐free survival (PFS) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) has not been developed. The study aimed at exploring the relation between stromal score and prognosis, then establishing a nomogram to predict PFS of patients with PTC.

Method

We obtained the stromal score and clinicopathological characteristics of PTC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Cox regression analysis assisted in selecting prognosis‐related factors. A stromal score‐based nomogram was built and verified in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve, concordance index (C‐index), decision curve analysis (DCA) as well as receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve assisted in measuring the performance exhibited by the nomogram.

Results

We divided 381 PTC patients into the training cohort (n = 269) and the validation cohort (n = 112) randomly. Compared with patients who had a low stromal score, patients with a high stromal score appeared with significantly better PFS [Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.294, 0.130–0.664]. The C‐index of the PFS nomogram was 0.764 (0.662–0.866) in the training cohort and 0.717 (0.603–0.831) in the validation cohort. The calibration curves for PFS prediction in the nomogram were remarkably consistent with the actual observation. DCA indicated superior performance of the nomogram to predict PFS than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Tumor Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. The ROC curves showed the favorable sensitivity and specificity of the novel nomogram.

Conclusion

High stromal score was significantly associated with improved PFS in patients with PTC. The nomogram based on the stromal score and clinicopathological patterns yielded a reliable performance to predict the prognosis of PTC.

Finding the Optimal Age Cutoff for the UICC/AJCC TNM Staging System in Patients with Papillary or Follicular Thyroid Cancer

Background: Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the only cancer entity for which the UICC/AJCC (Union for International Cancer Control and American Joint Committee on Cancer) TNM (tumor-node-metastasis) staging system involves an age cutoff as a prognostic criterion. However, the optimal age cutoff has not yet been determined in detail. The aim of our study was therefore to investigate the optimal age cutoff for the TNM staging system to predict disease-specific survival (DSS) with a focus on differences between patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and follicular thyroid cancer (FTC). Methods: We retrospectively studied two large well-described cohorts of adult DTC patients from a Dutch and a German university hospital. DSS was analyzed for DTC overall, and for PTC and FTC separately, using several age cutoffs (per 5-year increment between 20 and 85 years and subsequently 1-year increments between 35 and 55 years), employing the histopathological criteria from the TNM staging system, eighth edition. Results: We included 3074 DTC patients (77% PTC and 23% FTC; mean age at diagnosis was 49 years). Median follow-up was seven years. For DTC and for PTC and FTC separately, the majority of the age cutoffs had a better statistical model performance than a model with no age cutoff. For DTC overall and for PTC, an age cutoff of 50 years had the best statistical model performance, while it was 40 years for FTC. Conclusions: In this large European population of DTC patients, when employing the histopathological criteria of the TNM system (eighth edition), the optimal age cutoff to predict DSS is 50 years rather than the 55 years currently in use. With the optimal age cutoff being 50 years for PTC and 40 years for FTC, there was a substantial difference in age cutoff for the respective histological entities. Therefore, implementation of different age cutoffs for PTC and FTC could improve the predictive value of the TNM staging system.

Nomograms for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma Patients Based on the Eighth AJCC Staging and Competing Risks Model

Background

Differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients have a long survival period and good prognosis, so they are easily affected by competing risk events. The purpose of this study was to use the competing risks model to identify prognostic factors for cause-specific death (CSD) and death due to other causes (DOC) in patients with DTC.

Methods

Our screening process identified 34 585 DTC patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided them into a training cohort and a validation cohort. We used the Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards model to establish the CSD and DOC nomograms. The distinguishing ability and consistency of the nomograms were evaluated using the consistency indexes and calibration plots.

Results

Our analysis of a competing risks model revealed that pathological grade, tumor size, histological type, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)-8 stage, surgery status, adjuvant radiotherapy status, adjuvant chemotherapy status, and log odds of positive lymph nodes are prognostic factors for CSD, and age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, sex, pathological grade, tumor size, AJCC-8 stage, surgery status, adjuvant radiotherapy status, and lymph node ratio are prognostic factors for DOC. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year concordance indexes in the validation cohorts were 0.942, 0.931, and 0.913 for the CSD nomogram and 0.813, 0.746, and 0.776 for the DOC nomogram. The calibration plots showed good consistency in both nomograms.

Conclusions

Our nomograms can be used as a tool to help clinicians individually predict the probability of CSD and DOC in DTC patients at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years, which has certain guiding value in clinical applications.

Survival in differentiated thyroid carcinoma: Comparison between the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system and the ATA initial risk stratification system

BACKGROUND

The AJCC/UICC TNM staging system evaluates the risk of death from cancer. Its 8th edition aimed to increase its accuracy. In turn, the American Thyroid Association proposed an initial risk stratification system (IRSS) focusing on the risk of recurrence in differentiated thyroid carcinoma. The present study intended to analyze their prediction abilities.

METHODS

Six hundred and eighty-five consecutive surgical patients (mean follow-up 71.6 months) were staged. Correlations with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were carried out.

RESULTS

IRSS was discriminative for DFS but not for OS. Applying TNM 8th, 36.9% of the cohort was downstaged. Their DFS was shorter, compared with other patients in the same stage, but with no impact on OS. However, all those who died of the disease had been downstaged.

CONCLUSIONS

IRSS was more effective to predict DFS, but not OS. TNM 8th was more appropriate for OS analysis than TNM 7th and IRSS.

A population-based study of the three major variants of papillary thyroid carcinoma

Objective

To explore the clinicopathological features and relative prognostic risks of the three major variants of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological characteristics and prognoses of patients with the three major PTC variants, conventional papillary thyroid carcinoma (CPTC), follicular-variant papillary carcinoma (FVPTC), and tall-cell papillary thyroid carcinoma (TCPTC), based on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 2005 to 2009.

Results

A total of 29,555 patients were enrolled. In terms of their demographic and clinicopathological characteristics, TCPTC had the highest prevalence of older patients, men, patients with locally advanced stage (T stage and N stage), and mortality, while FVPTC had the lowest prevalence in relation to these factors. The three variants differed significantly in terms of 5-year overall survival and 5-year disease-specific survival. Cox regression analysis identified male sex, age ≥45 years, and higher American Joint Committee on Cancer and TNM stage as independent factors predicting a poor prognosis in relation to both overall and disease-specific survival.

Conclusions

CPTC, FVPTC, and TCPTC have different clinicopathological characteristics and prognoses, indicating the need for different treatment strategies for these three variants of PTC.

Patient Perspectives on the Extent of Surgery and Radioactive Iodine Treatment for Low-Risk Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

OBJECTIVE

To understand patient perspective regarding recommended changes in the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines. Specifically, in regard to active surveillance (AS) of some small differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), performance of less extensive surgery for low-risk DTC, and more selective administration of radioactive iodine (RAI).

METHODS

An online survey was disseminated to thyroid cancer patient advocacy organizations and members of the ATA to distribute to the patients. Data were collected on demographic and treatment information, and patient experience with DTC. Patients were asked "what if" scenarios on core topics, including AS, extent of surgery, and indications for RAI.

RESULTS

Survey responses were analyzed from 1546 patients with DTC: 1478 (96%) had a total thyroidectomy, and 1167 (76%) underwent RAI. If there was no change in the overall cancer outcome, 606 (39%) of respondents would have considered lobectomy over total thyroidectomy, 536 (35%) would have opted for AS, and 638 (41%) would have chosen to forego RAI. Moreover, (774/1217) 64% of respondents wanted more time with their clinicians when making decisions about the extent of surgery. A total of 621/1167 of patients experienced significant side effects with RAI, and 351/1167 of patients felt that the risks of treatment were not well explained. 1237/1546 (80%) of patients felt that AS would not be overly burdensome, and quality of life was the main reason cited for choosing AS.

CONCLUSION

Patient perspective regarding choice in the management of low-risk DTC varies widely, and a large proportion of DTC patients would change aspects of their care if oncologic outcomes were equivalent.

Association Between the Presence of Female-Specific Tumors and Aggressive Clinicopathological Features in Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A Retrospective Analysis of 9,822 Cases

Objective

To investigate the association between the presence of female-specific tumors and aggressive clinicopathological features in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC).

Methods

This study retrospectively analyzed 9,822 female cases between June 2008 and December 2017. Odds ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Findings were stratified by age and body mass index (BMI) in different models.

Results

1443/9822 (14.7%) patients with PTC had a female-specific tumor. Presence of a benign breast mass was an independent risk factor for a primary PTC lesion > 1 cm in diameter (adjusted OR = 1.446, 95% CI 1.136–1.840, P = 0.003), but a protective factor against extrathyroidal extension of PTC (adjusted OR = 0.650, 95%CI 0.500–0.845, P = 0.001). Presence of a benign uterine mass was an independent risk factor for multifocal PTC (adjusted OR = 1.305, 95%CI 1.113–1.531, P = 0.001). Analyses stratified by age and BMI revealed the presence of a benign breast mass was an independent risk factor for a primary PTC lesion > 1 cm in diameter in patients aged <36 years (adjusted OR = 1.711, 95% CI 1.063–2.754, P = 0.027), and a protective factor against extrathyroidal extension of PTC in patients aged ≥36 - <42 years (OR adjusted = 0.533, 95% CI 0.302–0.941, P = 0.030) or with a BMI ≥ 23.4 kg/m² (BMI ≥ 23.4 to < 25.7 kg/m², adjusted OR = 0.441, 95% CI 0.246–0.792, P = 0.006; BMI ≥25.7 kg/m², adjusted OR = 0.558, 95% CI 0.315–0.998, P₂ = 0.045). Presence of a benign uterine mass was an independent risk factor for multifocal PTC in patients aged ≥49 years (adjusted OR = 1.397, 95% CI 1.088–1.793, P = 0.009) or with a BMI <21.5 kg/m² (OR adjusted = 1.745, 95% CI 1.214–2.509, P = 0.003).

Conclusion

The presence of a benign breast mass was an independent risk factor for a primary PTC lesion > 1 cm in diameter and a protective factor against extrathyroidal extension of PTC, while the presence of a benign uterine mass was an independent risk factor for multifocal PTC. Data from this study may help surgeons propose more personalized treatment plans when encountering patients with PTC and female-specific benign tumors.

Recurrence of thyroid carcinoma in cervical soft tissue following surgical implantation: Case report

INTRODUCTION

Thyroid cancer is the most common type of malignant endocrine cancer. Differentiated thyroid cancer, which includes papillary and follicular cancers, represents majority (90%) of all thyroid cancers and has a favorable prognosis. However, a minority of patients develops loco-regional recurrence.

CASE REPORT

We report here a rare case of a 63 years-old man who underwent total thyroidectomy in 2015 for multinodular goiter whose histopathological examination revealed a papillary thyroid carcinoma. He received 6 weeks later a 100 mCi of radioactive iodine therapy. In 2017, he was admitted for multiple cervical lymph nodes with high serum thyroglobulin level (234 ng/mL) which required a bilateral central and lateral neck dissection. He was readmitted in 2019 for multiple subcutaneous neck nodules with high serum thyroglobulin level (197 ng/mL). The histopathological examination of the excised nodules revealed a papillary thyroid carcinoma. The patient showed no sign of recurrence after 2 years follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Local soft tissue recurrence followed surgical implantation should be suspected when nodules are determined alongside the thyroid after previous thyroid surgery. Therapy for these soft tissue implants may be difficult; a comprehensive long-term postoperative evaluation should be completed to minimize the risk of recurrence in cervical soft tissue.

Strap muscle invasion in differentiated thyroid cancer does not impact disease-specific survival: a population-based study

The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8^th TNM staging system of differentiated thyroid cancer defines gross strap muscle invasion as T3b stage. However, the impact of strap muscle invasion on disease-specific survival (DSS) remains controversial. To elucidate the survival impact of strap muscle invasion of any degree in thyroid cancers, the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (1973–2018) was queried for thyroid cancer only patients on July 2019 (n = 19,914). The Cox proportional hazard analysis with multivariable adjustment revealed that strap muscle invasion was not a significant factor for DSS in tumors equal to or smaller than 40 mm (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.620 [confidence interval (CI) 0.917 – 2.860]; p = 0.097). The competing risk analysis with multivariable adjustment showed that strap muscle invasion did not significantly impact DSS regardless of tumor size or cause of death (cancer-caused death (Subdistribution HR (SDHR) = 1.567 [CI 0.984 – 2.495]; p = 0.059); deaths to other causes (SDHR = 1.155 [CI 0.842 – 1.585]; p = 0.370). A “modified” staging schema discarding strap muscle invasion as a T stage criterion showed better 10-year DSS distinction between T stages. The modified staging schema may better reflect cancer-caused death risk and may prevent potential overstaging.

Independent risk factors evaluation for overall survival and cancer-specific survival in thyroid cancer patients with bone metastasis: A study for construction and validation of the predictive nomogram

Bone is a frequent site for the occurrence of metastasis of thyroid cancer (TC). TC with bone metastasis (TCBM) is associated with skeletal-related events (SREs), with poor prognosis and low overall survival (OS). Therefore, it is necessary to develop a predictive nomogram for prognostic evaluation. This study aimed to construct an effective nomogram for predicting the OS and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of TC patients with BM. Those TC patients with newly diagnosed BM were retrospectively examined over a period of 6 years from 2010 to 2016 using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Demographics and clinicopathological data were collected for further analysis. Patients were randomly allocated into training and validation cohorts with a ratio of ∼7:3. OS and CSS were retrieved as research endpoints. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed for identifying independent predictors. Overall, 242 patients were enrolled in this study. Age, histologic grade, histological subtype, tumor size, radiotherapy, liver metastatic status, and lung metastatic status were determined as the independent prognostic factors for predicting the OS and CSS in TCBM patients. Based on the results, visual nomograms were separately developed and validated for predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS and CSS in TCBM patients on the ground of above results. The calibration, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) also demonstrated the reliability and accuracy of the clinical prediction model. Our predictive model is expected to be a personalized and easily applicable tool for evaluating the prognosis of TCBM patients, and may contribute toward making an accurate judgment in clinical practice.

Petal-Like Calcifications in Thyroid Nodules on Ultrasonography: A Rare Morphologic Characteristic of Calcification Associated With Aggressive Biological Behavior

This study investigated a rare ultrasonographically detected thyroid petal-like calcification and its relationship with thyroid carcinoma and biological behavior. We described the clinical and ultrasonographical features of thyroid nodules with petal-like calcifications in 18 patients undergoing thyroid surgery and cervical lymph node dissection. All of the thyroid nodules with petal-like calcifications were papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs). Of the 18 patients, 13 (72.2%) had cervical central lymph node metastasis, and five (27.8%) had cervical lateral lymph node metastasis. Petal-like calcifications occurred in malignant thyroid nodules with a high incidence of lymph node metastasis, which may be a specific ultrasonographic feature associated with the aggressive biological behavior of PTC.

NR2F1-AS1 regulated miR-423-5p/SOX12 to promote proliferation and invasion of papillary thyroid carcinoma

Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is an aggressive histological subtype of thyroid carcinoma (THCA), whose occurrence rate is high. The participation of long noncoding RNAs in the pathologies of cancers has attracted significant attention during the past decades. The purpose of the current study is to investigate the role of NR2F1 antisense RNA 1 (NR2F1-AS1) in PTC. The expression of NR2F1 in THCA samples was analyzed by bioinformatics tool gene expression profiling interactive analysis. Levels of NR2F1-AS1, microRNA-423-5p (miR-423-5p), and SRY-box 12 (SOX12) were evaluated by a quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and Western blot. The impact of NR2F1-AS1 on PTC cell proliferation and invasion was assessed by Cell Counting Kit-8, EdU, and Transwell invasion assays. The interactions among NR2F1-AS1, miR-423-5p, and SOX12 were determined by RNA immunoprecipitation and luciferase reporter assays. Consequently, we found that NR2F1-AS1 and SOX12 levels were elevated in PTC, whereas miR-423-5p was downregulated in PTC cells. Functionally, NR2F1-AS1 silence led to reduced proliferation and invasion of PTC cells. Mechanistically, NR2F1-AS1 interacted with miR-423-5p to induce SOX12 expression in PTC cells. In conclusion, the present study firstly stated that NR2F1-AS1 regulated miR-423-5p/SOX12 to promote proliferation and invasion of PTC, indicating NR2F1-AS1 as a potential novel target for the molecular-targeted therapy of PTC.

Risk of Recurrence in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: A Population-Based Comparison of the 7th and 8th Editions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer Staging Systems

BACKGROUND

Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) survival is excellent, making recurrence a more clinically relevant prognosticator. We hypothesized that the new American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition improves on the utility of the 7th edition in predicting the risk of recurrence in DTC.

METHODS

A population-based retrospective review compared the risk of recurrence in patients with DTC according to the AJCC 7th and 8th editions using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-based Kentucky Cancer Registry from 2004 to 2012.

RESULTS

A total of 3248 patients with DTC were considered disease-free after treatment. Twenty percent of patients were downstaged from the 7th edition to the 8th edition. Most patients had stage I disease (80% in the 7th edition and 94% in the 8th edition). A total of 110 (3%) patients recurred after a median of 27 months. The risk of recurrence was significantly associated with stage for both editions (p < 0.001). In the 7th edition, there was poor differentiation between lower stages and better differentiation between higher stages (stage II hazard ratio [HR] 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39-2.11; stage III HR 3.72, 95% CI 2.29-6.07; stage IV HR 11.66, 95% CI 7.10-19.15; all compared with stage I). The 8th edition better differentiated lower stages (stage II HR 4.06, 95% CI 2.38-6.93; stage III HR 13.07, 95% CI 5.30-32.22; stage IV 11.88, 95% CI 3.76-37.59; all compared with stage I).

CONCLUSIONS

The AJCC 8th edition better differentiates the risk of DTC recurrence for early stages of disease compared with the 7th edition. However, limitations remain, emphasizing the importance of adjunctive strategies to estimate the risk of recurrence.

Assessment of the prognostic value and N1b changes of the eighth TNM/AJCC staging system for differentiated thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic veracity for disease-specific survival (DSS) of the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control tumor-node-metastasis staging system (TNM-8) compared with the seventh edition (TNM-7) in a Chinese population of patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) and to evaluate the impact of N1b redefinition and reclassification on prediction of survival.

METHODS

A total of 569 DTC patients who underwent thyroid surgery in two Chinese hospitals were included in analysis to assess the predictive accuracy and N1b changes of TNM-8. Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program were applied to validate the findings on N1b changes of TNM-8. Unadjusted DSS was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association of stage and lymph node metastasis (LNM) status with survival. The proportion of variation explained (PVE), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were evaluated to compare model performance.

RESULTS

When TNM-8 was applied, 39.7% of patients were downstaged relative to TMN-7. In comparison of TNM-7 and TMN-8, the PVE was 18.68% and 22.33%, the AIC was 704.22 and 680.50, and the BIC was 702.98 and 679.24, respectively. In 569 Chinese patients with DTC, levels I-V LNM was significantly related to poorer DSS compared with N0 and level VI LNM. Among patients aged ≥ 55 years, those with levels I-V and VII LNM had significantly worse DSS than those with N0 and Level VI LNM. In the SEER dataset, patients with levels I-V and VII LNM had significantly worse DSS compared with those with N0 and Level VI LNM, especially in older patients (age ≥ 55 years).

CONCLUSIONS

TNM-8 staged a significant number of Chinese patients into lower stages and improved the accuracy of predicting DSS compared with TNM-7. However, changes in lateral LNM definition and classification of TNM-8 have a significant prognostic implication for patients with DTC, especially older patients (≥ 55 years). Our data suggest that a modified TNM staging system would be more useful for predicting mortality and determining a proper treatment strategy in patients with DTC.

Evaluating the 2015 American Thyroid Association Risk Stratification System in High-Risk Papillary and Follicular Thyroid Cancer Patients

Background: The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) Risk Stratification System for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is designed to predict recurring/persisting disease but not survival. Earlier studies evaluating this system evaluated the 2009 edition, comprised a low number of patients with ATA high-risk, had low numbers of patients with follicular thyroid cancer (FTC), or did not distinguish between papillary and FTC. Therefore, we evaluated the prognostic value of the 2015 ATA Risk Stratification System in a large population of high-risk thyroid cancer patients, which included a substantial proportion of FTC patients. Methods: We retrospectively studied adult patients with DTC who were diagnosed and/or treated at a Dutch university hospital between January 2002 and December 2015. All patients fulfilled the 2015 ATA high-risk criteria. Overall survival and disease-specific survival (DSS) were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the effects of DTC subtype and ATA high-risk criteria on response to therapy, recurrence, as well as survival. Results: We included 236 patients with high-risk DTC (32% FTC) with a mean age of 56 years. Median follow-up was 6 years. At final follow-up, 69 patients (29%) had excellent response, while 120 (51%) had structural disease. All high-risk criteria, except large pathologic lymph nodes, were inversely related to excellent response and positively related to structural disease at final follow-up. During follow-up, 14% of the 79 patients who achieved excellent response developed a recurrence. Finally, 10-year DSS was much higher in the initial excellent response than in the initial structural disease group (100% vs. 61%, respectively). Conclusions: In a population of high-risk DTC patients harboring a large subset of FTC patients, the 2015 ATA Risk Stratification System is not only an excellent predictor of persisting disease but also of survival. As much as 14% of the high-risk patients who had an excellent response upon dynamic risk stratification experienced a recurrence during follow-up. Clinicians should thus be aware of the relatively high recurrence risk in these patients, even after an excellent response to therapy.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Patients with Thyroid Cancer

BACKGROUND The AJCC staging system is inadequate for use in patients with thyroid carcinomas. Here, we aimed to establish a nomogram for thyroid cancer, and we compare its prognostic value with the AJCC staging system in adults diagnosed with thyroid carcinoma. MATERIAL AND METHODS Patient records were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result database. The 8491 included patients were divided into a modeling cohort (n=5943) and a validation cohort (n=2548). The variables included in the modeling cohort were selected using a backward stepwise selection method with Cox regression, and the prognosis nomogram was constructed. In the validation cohort, we compared our survival model with the AJCC prognosis model using the concordance index, the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, the integrated discrimination improvement, calibration plotting, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS Twelve independent prognostic factors were identified and used to establish the nomogram. In particular, marital status was included in a survival prediction model of thyroid cancer for the first time. The concordance index, area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement, calibration plotting, and decision curve analysis for the nomogram showed better performance compared to the AJCC staging system. CONCLUSIONS We have developed and validated a highly accurate thyroid cancer prognosis nomogram. The prognostic value of the nomogram is better than that of the AJCC staging system alone.

Predicting recurrence of papillary thyroid cancer using the eighth edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system

BACKGROUND

The AJCC/UICC classification is widely used for predicting survival in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), but has not been evaluated as a predictor of recurrence. The hypothesis of this study was that the eighth edition of the AJCC system can be used in this novel way.

METHODS

All patients in the study underwent surgery for PTC at a high-volume endocrine surgery centre in France between 1985 and 2015. The seventh and eighth editions of the AJCC/UICC staging system for PTC were employed to predict recurrence and disease-specific survival using the Kaplan-Meier and log rank tests.

RESULTS

Among 4124 patients (79·7 per cent female), median age was 50 (i.q.r. 38-60) years; 3906 patients (94·7 per cent) underwent total thyroidectomy, with lymph node dissection in 2495 (60·5 per cent). The eighth edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system placed 91·8, 7·1, 0·4 and 0·7 per cent of patients in stages I-IV respectively. After reclassifying patients from the seventh to the eighth AJCC/UICC edition, the disease was downstaged in 23·8 per cent. Over a median follow-up of 7 years, 260 patients (6·4 per cent) developed recurrent disease, including 5·2 per cent of patients with stage I, 19·6 per cent with stage II, 59 per cent with stage III and 50 per cent with stage IV disease, according to the eighth edition. The eighth edition was a better predictor of recurrence than the seventh edition.

CONCLUSION

The eighth edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system appears to be a novel tool for predicting PTC recurrence, which is a meaningful outcome for this indolent disease. The eighth edition can be used to risk-stratify patients, keeping in mind that other molecular and pathological predictive factors must be integrated into the assessment of recurrence risk.

Long Noncoding RNA LOC100129940-N Is Upregulated in Papillary Thyroid Cancer and Promotes the Invasion and Progression

Thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignancy, and its incidence has increased rapidly in recent decades worldwide. Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is the most common type of all thyroid cancers. The molecular mechanisms underlying the disease still need to be further investigated. Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs), a class of noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs) longer than 200 nucleotides, are aberrantly expressed in malignant diseases, including PTC. Here, we identified a novel isoform of LOC100129940 and designated it as LOC100129940-N. We demonstrated that the expression level of LOC100129940-N was elevated in PTC, indicating that LOC100129940-N may be involved in PTC development and progression. Moreover, our results showed that overexpression of LOC100129940-N promoted, whereas silencing of LOC100129940-N suppressed, PTC cell proliferation, invasion, and migration. Mechanistically, LOC100129940-N played an important role in activating Wnt/β-catenin signaling and upregulating downstream target genes. Taken together, we demonstrate that LOC100129940-N promotes the activation of Wnt/β-catenin signaling, which in turn regulates the downstream target genes, thereby enhancing invasion and progression of PTC.

A comparison of the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC staging system in terms of predicting recurrence and survival in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

The recently published 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumour-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system was significantly updated following the thyroid cancer-related guidelines to provide better predictability of survival but not focus on recurrence. Therefore, we compared the predictive values of the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC staging systems for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) after thyroidectomy for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

METHODS

This retrospective study included 2930 patients who underwent thyroidectomy and neck dissection for previously untreated PTC between 2006 and 2014. TNM stage was defined according to 7th and 8th editions. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to identify associations between variables and RFS or OS. Multivariate models for the AJCC TNM stages were adjusted for clinical and pathological variables.

RESULTS

A significant number of patients classified as T3 with overall TNM stages II-IV in the AJCC 7th edition were down-staged in the 8th edition. Unadjusted T classification and overall TNM staging in both the 7th and 8th editions were significantly associated with RFS and OS rates (P < 0.001). After adjustment for clinicopathological factors, the overall TNM stage according to the AJCC 8th edition, but not the 7th edition, remained significantly associated with RFS and OS (P < 0.05), with better predictability of recurrence and survival, in patients with PTC.

CONCLUSIONS

The 8th edition AJCC staging system down-staged a large proportion of PTC patients, resulting in better predictability of recurrence and survival compared to the previous staging system.

CONDENSED ABSTRACT

This study compared the abilities of the 7th and 8th edition AJCC staging systems to predict recurrence and overall survival in 2930 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma. The updated guidelines down-staged a large proportion of patients, resulting in better prediction of recurrence and survival than the previous staging system.

The Updated AJCC/TNM Staging System for Papillary Thyroid Cancer (8th Edition): From the Perspective of Genomic Analysis

BACKGROUND

Recently, the American Joint Committee on Cancer published the 8th edition of its Cancer Staging Manual with major changes regarding the staging of thyroid cancer, including the raising of the age cutoff from 45 to 55 years. Using the clinical and genetic data of 505 papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) cases, we aimed to compare overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) with different age cutoff values, and also investigate the efficacy of the new staging system on a genomic level.

METHODS

We downloaded gene expression data, somatic mutation profile, copy number alteration data and clinical data of 505 PTC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas data portal. We used multiple statistical analysis and multiplatform genomic analysis to evaluate the efficacy of the 8th edition.

RESULTS

When using 55 years as the cutoff value for analyzing RFS, the Kaplan-Meier plot showed a significant p value but not when using 45 years (p = 0.006 vs. p = 0.493), but both cutoff values were significant when analyzing OS (p = 1.1 × 10-9 with age 55 vs. p = 4.4 × 10-5 with age 45). When looking at stage-dependent survival, both the 7th and 8th edition had significant p values (p = 0.048 vs. p = 3.1 × 10-9 in RFS and p = 5.9 × 10-10 vs. p = 2.2 × 10-10 in OS). Multiplatform genomic analysis showed patients ≥55 years had 103 differently expressed genes when compared with other age groups. Signaling pathway analysis revealed that patients ≥55 years had altered pathways associated with aggressiveness of thyroid cancer.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, this is the first study to show clinical and genetic evidence supporting the altered age cutoff point of 55 years in the AJCC 8th edition for PTC patients.

Comparing the Prognostic Value of the Eighth Edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Tumor Node Metastasis Staging System Between Papillary and Follicular Thyroid Cancer

BACKGROUND

Recently, the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)/tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) was published. Studies evaluating this new edition have so far only comprised patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) or made no distinction between PTC and follicular thyroid cancer (FTC). Therefore, this study evaluated the prognostic value of the eighth edition of the AJCC/TNM staging system in a European population with DTC, focusing on potential differences between PTC and FTC.

METHODS

Adult patients with DTC who were diagnosed and/or treated at a Dutch university hospital between January 2002 and April 2016 were retrospectively studied. Overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were analyzed for DTC and for PTC and FTC separately according to the seventh and eighth editions using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox's proportional hazards model was used to compare the effect of PTC and FTC on survival. The statistical model performance was assessed using the C-index, Akaike information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion.

RESULTS

The study included 792 patients with DTC (79% PTC, 21% FTC) with mean age of 49 years. Median follow-up was 7.2 years. Reclassification using the eighth edition resulted in the downstaging of 282 (36%) patients, an increased number of patients in stages I and II, and an equivalent decrease in patients with stages III and IV. For DTC, as well as for PTC and FTC separately, stage at diagnosis was significantly related to both OS and DSS (p < 0.001). When using the seventh edition, FTC patients had a significantly lower survival rate than PTC patients in stage I and stage IV for OS, and in stage IV for DSS. This difference in survival rates disappeared using the eighth edition. In general, the statistical model performance was better for the eighth than for the seventh edition.

CONCLUSIONS

In a European population of patients with DTC, the eighth edition of the AJCC/TNM staging system is a better predictor for both OS and DSS than the previous seventh edition for both PTC and FTC. Furthermore, differences in survival rates between PTC and FTC that were present using the seventh edition disappeared using the eighth edition, implying that this new edition is predicting well, regardless of DTC subtype.

Lymph node density in papillary thyroid carcinoma is a prognostic factor after adjusting for pathological stage

We investigated the possible association between the lymph node density and survival outcomes in differentiated papillary thyroid carcinoma, and examined whether the lymph node density was a predictor in a multivariate analysis adjusted for the pathological stage in the eighth edition of the Union for International Cancer Control Tumor-Node Metastasis Classification of Malignant Tumors. A total of 543 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma were enrolled. We performed restaging according to the eighth edition. The lymph node density was the ratio between number of positive lymph nodes and total number of excised lymph nodes. A log-rank test and Cox's proportional hazards model were used for univariate and multivariate analysis with adjustment for the pathological stage in the eighth edition, respectively. In both the univariate and multivariate analyses of 150 patients with pN1bM0, the presence of a lymph node density of ≥ 0.3 with pN1b was significantly associated with shorter disease-specific survival. In both the univariate and multivariate analyses of all 543 patients, a lymph node density of ≥ 0.3 with pN1b were also significantly associated with shorter overall and disease-specific survival. In conclusion, these results suggest that the lymph node density can be used as a predictor for the survival outcomes after adjustment for the pathological stage in the eighth edition.

Bilateral chylothorax following reoperative central neck dissection for metastatic papillary thyroid cancer

Locoregional recurrence of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) can occur in up to 30% of patients within 10 years after initial treatment. Reoperative surgery can be challenging due to scarring, fibrosis and distorted anatomy and may be associated with increased complications compared with initial operations. Chylothorax is an extremely rare and potentially life-threatening complication that can be associated with neck dissections and thyroid surgery. In this report, we describe an unusual case of bilateral chylothorax following a left central neck dissection for recurrent PTC.

The New TNM Staging System for Thyroid Cancer and the Risk of Disease Downstaging

In October 2016 the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) published the 8th edition of the AJCC/TNM cancer staging system and it has been introduced in clinical practice since 1st January 2018. The effect of most of the changes in the new edition was the downstaging of a significant number of patients into lower stages, reflecting their low risk of thyroid cancer-related death. One of the most relevant modification refers to the role of the microscopic extra-thyroidal tumor invasion, which is no longer considered as criterion for the classification of T3 tumors. With the present study we want to assess the impact of the changes of the new staging system and therefore we analyzed or casistic of 84 T1-T3 thyroid-cancer patients. The results of our analysis show that he downstaging of patients according to the 8th TNM edition does not necessarily reflect less aggressive disease: we actually reported 2 lymph-nodal recurrences (40%) in the five patients that were downstaged from pT3 to pT2 and the lypmh-nodal recurrence rate for stage I rises from 0% with the 7th TNM edition to 5.3% with the 8th edition.

Ultrasound features of extranodal extension in the metastatic cervical lymph nodes of papillary thyroid cancer: a case-control study

Objective:

Extranodal extension in cervical lymph nodes is an important risk factor for the progression and prognosis of papillary thyroid cancer. The purpose of this study was to identify the common and characteristic preoperative ultrasonography features that are associated with the pathologic extranodal extension of metastatic papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Methods:

We retrospectively assessed and compared clinicopathologic and ultrasound features between 60 papillary thyroid cancer patients with extranodal extension and 120 control patients with papillary thyroid cancer without extranodal extension.

Results:

With respect to the pathological N stage and clinicopathologic features, N1b stage papillary thyroid carcinomas were more frequently found in patients who were extranodal extension-positive, in comparison with those who were extranodal extension-negative (78.3% vs. 63.3%, P=0.043). Extranodal extension was detected most frequently in level VI cervical lymph nodes (48.7%). In our univariate analysis of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma, cervical lymph nodes with extranodal extension showed higher incidences of node matting, microcalcification, cystic area, aspect ratio <2, and larger diameter than those without extranodal extension (all P<0.05). Our multivariate analysis demonstrated that node matting and cystic area were independent risk factors for the presence of extranodal extension [odds ratio (OR): 4.751, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.212~18.626, P=0.025; OR: 2.707, 95% CI: 1.127~6.502, P=0.026].

Conclusions:

Common ultrasound features may indicate the presence of extranodal extension in patients with metastatic cervical lymph nodes of papillary thyroid carcinoma.