Model for end-stage liver disease score and MELD exceptions: 15 years later

MELD-Na score may underestimate disease severity and risk of death in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)

Portal hypertension often precedes the development of advanced fibrosis in patients with Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and may accelerate disease progression to cirrhosis. We aimed to evaluate whether prioritization tools accurately predict survival in patients with MASLD and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). We retrospectively identified patients diagnosed with esophageal or gastric varices (EGV). Laboratory results, endoscopy reports and outcomes of patients with MASLD were compared to patients with advanced stage chronic liver disease (CLD) of other etiologies. During the study period 326 patients were diagnosed with EGV. 88 (26.9%) had MASLD, 113 (34.6%) viral hepatitis (VH), 63 (19.3%) alcoholic liver disease (ALD) and 62 (19%) both VH and ALD (VHALD). EGV bleeding events were significantly more frequent in patients with MASLD (36.3%), compared to VH (28.3%), ALD (30.1%) and VHALD (25.8%), respectively (p < 0.01). Mean Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-Na score surrounding 1 year of first event of EGV bleeding was significantly lower in MASLD patients compared to all other etiologies (p = 0.02). At a MELD-Na score of 11-20, cumulative survival rate was significantly lower in MASLD patients compared to all other etiologies (log rank p < 0.01). MASLD patients present with EGV bleeding at lower MELD-Na scores compared to other etiologies of CLD. MELD-Na score may therefore underestimate disease severity and risk of death in patients with MASLD and CSPH.

Liver Transplantation 2023: Status Report, Current and Future Challenges

Liver transplantation offers live-saving therapy for patients with complications of cirrhosis and stage T2 hepatocellular carcinoma. The demand for organs far outstrips the supply, and innovations aimed at increasing the number of usable deceased donors as well as alternative donor sources are a major focus. The etiologies of cirrhosis are shifting over time, with more need for transplantation among patients with alcohol-associated liver disease and nonalcoholic/metabolic fatty liver disease and less for viral hepatitis, although hepatitis B remains an important indication for transplant in countries with high endemicity. The rise in transplantation for alcohol-associated liver disease and nonalcoholic/metabolic fatty liver disease has brought attention to how patients are selected for transplantation and the strategies needed to prevent recurrent disease. In this review, we present a status report on the most pressing topics in liver transplantation and future challenges.

Should responsibility be used as a tiebreaker in allocation of deceased donor organs for patients suffering from alcohol-related end-stage liver disease?

There is a long-standing debate concerning the eligibility of patients suffering from alcohol-related end-stage liver disease (ARESLD) for deceased donor liver transplantation. The question of retrospective and/or prospective responsibility has been at the center of the ethical discussion. Several authors argue that these patients should at least be regarded as partly responsible for their ARESLD. At the same time, the arguments for retrospective and/or prospective responsibility have been strongly criticized, such that no consensus has been reached. A third option was proposed as a form of compromise, namely that responsibility should only be used as a tiebreaker in liver allocation. The present study provides an ethical investigation of this third option. First, we will provide an overview of the main arguments that have been offered for and against the use of responsibility as an allocation criterion. Second, we will explore the concept of responsibility as a tiebreaker in detail and discuss several types of situations, in which responsibility could be used as a tiebreaker, as well as the main ethical challenges associated with them. As we will show, an ethical justified use of responsibility as a tiebreaker is limited to a very restricted number of cases and is associated with a number of ethical concerns. For this reason, waiting time should be preferred as a tiebreaker in liver allocation, even though the criterion of waiting time, too, raises a number of equity-related concerns.

Pathogenic factors of cognitive dysfunction after liver transplantation: an observational study

OBJECTIVES

Neurocognitive complications significantly reduce long-term health-related quality of life in patients undergoing liver transplantation; however, few studies have focused on their perioperative cognitive status. The authors designed a prospective observational study to determine the incidence and risk factors of posttransplant cognitive dysfunction.

METHODS

This study included patients with end-stage liver disease who were on the liver transplantation waiting list. We performed an investigation with a neuropsychological battery before and 1 week after the successful transplant, analyzed the changes, and further explored the complicated perioperative factors that contribute to cognitive dysfunction.

RESULTS

A total of 132 patients completed all the investigations. Compared with healthy controls and preoperative cognitive performance, 54 patients experienced deterioration, 50 patients remained unchanged, and 28 patients showed rapid improvement. Logistic regression analysis showed that age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI, 1.07-1.22), P  < 0.001], the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score [OR = 1.07, 95% CI (1.03-1.13), P  = 0.038], systemic circulation pressure [OR = 0.95, 95% CI (0.91-0.99), P  = 0.026] within the first 30 min after portal vein opening, and total bilirubin concentration [OR = 1.02, 95% CI (1.01-1.03), P  = 0.036] on the seventh day post-transplant were closely related to the deterioration of cognitive function.

CONCLUSION

The incidences of deterioration, maintenance, and improvement in cognitive function were 40.9%, 37.9%, and 21.2%, respectively. Increasing age, higher MELD score, lower perfusion pressure in the early stage of the new liver, and higher total bilirubin concentration postoperatively may be independent pathogenic factors.

[Indocyanine green in liver transplantation]

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the first own experience of using indocyanine green (ICG) in liver transplantation compared to literature data and to determine its potential for clinical practice. Liver transplantation is an effective option for patients with end-stage disease, but this procedure is associated with many problems such as graft rejection, graft dysfunction, surgical risk and postoperative management. Modern methods for assessing graft function have their limitations, so a more efficient method is needed. According to this review, ICG fluorescence is valuable for effective intraoperative blood flow control, assessment of graft function, intraoperative and postoperative monitoring of clinical status. ICG fluorescence can also predict clinical status of patients at all stages of liver transplantation. Routine ICG fluorescence method is advisable in liver transplantation to improve outcomes and optimize treatment process.

Liver cirrhosis prediction for patients with Wilson disease based on machine learning: a case-control study from southwest China

OBJECTIVES

Wilson disease (WD) is a rare autosomal recessive disease caused by an ATP7B gene mutation. Liver cirrhosis is an important issue that affects the clinical management and prognosis of WD patients. Blood routine examination is a potential biomarker for predicting the occurrence of liver cirrhosis in WD. We aim to construct a predictive model for the occurrence of liver cirrhosis using general clinical information, blood routine examination, urine copper, and serum ceruloplasmin through a machine learning approach.

METHODS

Case-control study of WD patients admitted to West China Fourth Hospital between 2005 and 2020. Patients with a score of at least four in scoring system of WD were enrolled. A machine learning model was constructed by EmpowerStats software according to the general clinical data, blood routine examination, 24 h urinary copper, and serum ceruloplasmin.

RESULTS

This study analyzed 346 WD patients, of which 246 were without liver cirrhosis. And we found platelet large cell count (P-LCC), red cell distribution width CV (RDW-CV), serum ceruloplasmin, age at diagnosis, and mean corpuscular volume (MCV) were the top five important predictors. Moreover, the model was of high accuracy, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9998 in the training set and 0.7873 in the testing set.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, the predictive model for predicting liver cirrhosis in WD, constructed by machine learning, had a higher accuracy. And the most important indices in the predictive model were P-LCC, RDW-CV, serum ceruloplasmin, age at diagnosis, and MCV.

VariScreen secures the screening of high-risk varices in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis beyond Baveno VI criteria

We aimed to validate the performance of the ratio of the platelet count (PLT) to liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in excluding high-risk varices (HRVs) in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related compensated cirrhosis beyond Baveno VI criteria. A total of 310 patients were assessed. The performances of the PLT:LSM ratio (PLER), PLER adjusted for the international normalized ratio, etiology, age, and sex (PLEASE), and the sequential algorithm for HRV screening (VariScreen) in excluding HRVs were evaluated and compared with those of expanded Baveno VI criteria (LSM &lt;25 kPa and PLT &gt;110×109/L, EB6C); PLT &gt;150×109/L and model for end-stage liver disease score = 6 (P150M6 criterion); PLT &gt;120×109/L and albumin &gt;36 g/L (P120A36 criterion); and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and PLT score (ALBI-PLT score). Among the enrolled patients, 43 (13.9%) had HRVs. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of PLER for predicting HRVs (0.771, 95% confidence interval, 0.720–0.817) was significantly higher than that for PLT and LSM (p &lt; 0.01). PLER was an independent risk factor for HRVs. VariScreen, PLEASE, and PLER could spare 20 (6.5%), 91 (29.4%), and 60 (19.4%) endoscopies, with 0, 3 (3.3%), and 1 (1.7%) HRVs missed, respectively. The EB6C and P120A36 criteria could spare 45 (14.5%) and 36 (11.6%) endoscopies, with 1 (2.2%) and 1 (2.8%) HRVs missed, respectively. The P150M6 criterion and ALBI-PLT score missed 6.8% and 10.3% of HRVs, respectively. We found that PLER performed better than other non-invasive tests. VariScreen secured the screening of HRVs in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis beyond Baveno VI criteria.

Modelling kidney outcomes based on MELD eras - impact of MELD score in renal endpoints after liver transplantation

Background

Acute kidney injury is a common complication in solid organ transplants, notably liver transplantation. The MELD is a score validated to predict mortality of cirrhotic patients, which is also used for organ allocation, however the influence of this allocation criteria on AKI incidence and mortality after liver transplantation is still uncertain.

Methods

This is a retrospective single center study of a cohort of patients submitted to liver transplant in a tertiary Brazilian hospital: Jan/2002 to Dec/2013, divided in two groups, before and after MELD implementation (pre-MELD and post MELD). We evaluate the differences in AKI based on KDIGO stages and mortality rates between the two groups.

Results

Eight hundred seventy-four patients were included, 408 in pre-MELD and 466 in the post MELD era. The proportion of patients that developed AKI was lower in the post MELD era (p 0.04), although renal replacement therapy requirement was more frequent in this group (p < 0.01). Overall mortality rate at 28, 90 and 365 days was respectively 7%, 11% and 15%. The 1-year mortality rate was lower in the post MELD era (20% vs. 11%, p < 0.01). AKI incidence was 50% lower in the post MELD era even when adjusted for clinically relevant covariates (p < 0.01).

Conclusion

Liver transplants performed in the post MELD era had a lower incidence of AKI, although there were more cases requiring dialysis. 1-year mortality was lower in the post MELD era, suggesting that patient care was improved during this period.

A novel score predicts mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: MOTS - Modified TIPS Score

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The high risk for severe shunting-related post-interventional complications demands a stringent selection of candidates for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). We aimed to develop a simple and reliable tool to accurately predict early post-TIPS mortality.

METHODS

144 cases of TIPS implantation were retrospectively analysed. Using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis of factors predicting mortality within 90 days after TIPS, a score integrating urea, international normalized ratio (INR) and bilirubin was developed. The Modified TIPS-Score (MOTS) ranges from 0 to 3 points: INR >1.6, urea >71 mg/dl and bilirubin >2.2 mg/dl account for one point each. Additionally, MOTS was tested in an external validation cohort (n = 187) and its performance was compared to existing models.

RESULTS

Modified TIPS-Score achieved a significant prognostic discrimination reflected by 90-day mortality of 8% in patients with MOTS 0-1 and 60% in patients with MOTS 2-3 (p < .001). Predictive performance (area under the curve) of MOTS was accurate (c = 0.845 [0.73-0.96], p < .001), also in patients with renal insufficiency (c = 0.830 [0.64-1.00], p = .02) and in patients with refractory ascites (c = 0.949 [0.88-1.00], p < .001), which are subgroups with particular room for improvement of post-TIPS mortality prediction. The results were reproducible in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Modified TIPS-Score is a novel, practicable tool to predict post-TIPS mortality, that can significantly simplify clinical decision making. Its practical applicability should be further investigated.

The MELD upgrade exception: a successful strategy to optimize access to liver transplantation for patients with high waiting list mortality

BACKGROUND

MELD exceptions are designed to equipoise liver transplant waiting list survival. We aimed to analyze the impact of the MELD Upgrade rule and all other MELD exceptions on the liver transplant waiting list outcomes during 2012-2017 in Switzerland.

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide cohort study including all adult patients registered on the Swiss liver transplant waiting list between 2012 and 2017. Waiting list mortality and access to transplantation were analyzed, considering MELD exceptions as time-dependent covariates.

RESULTS

730 patients were included. Patients with MELD Upgrade exceptions had a higher risk of dying while on the waiting list (OR 2.13; CI 95% 1.30-3.47) and also an increased likelihood of receiving a liver transplantation, when compared to patients without MELD exceptions. Patients with any type of MELD exceptions were more likely to be transplanted when compared to patients without MELD exceptions. The proportion of patients with MELD exceptions increased from 2012 to 2017 (44% vs 88%). Allocation MELD at the time of transplantation showed an annual increase (23 ± 8 points vs 32 ± 5 points, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Only patients with MELD Upgrade exceptions had the expected combination of higher waiting list mortality and quicker access to liver transplantation.

Determination of hepatic clearance by derivations of the indocyanine green retention test in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The study was undertaken in order to compare single injection indocyanine green (ICG)-clearances with the steady-state ICG-clearance (ICG_Cl ) in patients with cirrhosis in order to assess the most accurate estimate for ICG-clearance and to relate the ICG-clearances to established indicators of liver dysfunction.

METHODS

Thirty-eight patients (male 29) with cirrhosis (Child-Turcotte class A 8, class B 21, and class C 9) were studied during a hemodynamic investigation. A single injection of ICG was followed by blood samples for 5, 10, 15, and 20 min. The dose/plasma area clearance (Cl_A ) and plasma volume · initial slope clearance (Cl_PV ) were determined and compared with the steady-state infusion/plasma concentration ratio clearance (ICG_Cl ).

RESULTS

The Cl_A (310; 214; 502 mL/min) and Cl_PV (294; 164; 481 mL/min) correlated closely with ICG_Cl (243; 120; 383 mL/min [median; interquartile range], R = 0.95-0.98, P < 0.000), but were significantly higher than ICG_Cl (P < 0.001). All three clearance measures correlated significantly with biochemical and hemodynamic variables of liver dysfunction (P < 0.05-0.000). All three ICG-clearances showed significantly lower values in patients with ascites compared to those without, and lower ICG-clearance values were present in patients with esophageal varices compared to those without (P < 0.05-0.002).

CONCLUSION

Single injection markers (Cl_A and Cl_PV ) of the steady-state ICG-clearance as derived from the ICG-retention curve and the plasma volume correlate with ICG_Cl and established variables of portal hypertension and liver cell bile excretory dysfunction. Therefore, these markers can safely replace the more costly ICG_Cl .

Urinary BA Indices as Prognostic Biomarkers for Complications Associated with Liver Diseases

Hepatobiliary diseases and their complications cause the accumulation of toxic bile acids (BA) in the liver, blood, and other tissues, which may exacerbate the underlying condition and lead to unfavorable prognosis. To develop and validate prognostic biomarkers for the prediction of complications of cholestatic liver disease based on urinary BA indices, liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry was used to analyze urine samples from 257 patients with cholestatic liver diseases during a 7-year follow-up period. The urinary BA profile and non-BA parameters were monitored, and logistic regression models were used to predict the prognosis of hepatobiliary disease-related complications. Urinary BA indices were applied to quantify the composition, metabolism, hydrophilicity, and toxicity of the BA profile. We have developed and validated the bile-acid liver disease complication (BALDC) model based on BA indices using logistic regression model, to predict the prognosis of cholestatic liver disease complications including ascites. The mixed BA and non-BA model was the most accurate and provided higher area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and smaller akaike information criterion (AIC) values compared to both non-BA and MELD (models for end stage liver disease) models. Therefore, the mixed BA and non-BA model could be used to predict the development of ascites in patients diagnosed with liver disease at early stages of intervention. This will help physicians to make a better decision when treating hepatobiliary disease-related ascites.

Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatitis E Virus-related Acute Liver Failure: A Multicenter Study in China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Timely and effective assessment scoring systems for predicting the mortality of patients with hepatitis E virus-related acute liver failure (HEV-ALF) are urgently needed. The present study aimed to establish an effective nomogram for predicting the mortality of HEV-ALF patients.

METHODS

The nomogram was based on a cross-sectional set of 404 HEV-ALF patients who were identified and enrolled from a cohort of 650 patients with liver failure. To compare the performance with that of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring and CLIF-Consortium-acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C-ACLFs) models, we assessed the predictive accuracy of the nomogram using the concordance index (C-index), and its discriminative ability using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (td-ROC) analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis of the development set carried out to predict mortality revealed that γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, total bilirubin, urea nitrogen, creatinine, international normalized ratio, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were independent factors, all of which were incorporated into the new nomogram to predict the mortality of HEV-ALF patients. The area under the curve of this nomogram for mortality prediction was 0.671 (95% confidence interval: 0.602-0.740), which was higher than that of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. Moreover, the td-ROC and decision curves analysis showed that both discriminative ability and threshold probabilities of the nomogram were superior to those of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. A similar trend was observed in the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel nomogram is an accurate and efficient mortality prediction method for HEV-ALF patients.

A History of the Assessment of Liver Performance

Content available: Author Interview and Audio Recording.

Comparative study of indocyanine green-R15, Child-Pugh score, and model for end-stage liver disease score for prediction of hepatic encephalopathy after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) remains an enormous challenge in patients who undergo transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) implantation. The preoperative indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min (ICG-R15), as one of the liver function assessment tools, has been developed as a prognostic indicator in patients undergoing surgery, but there are limited data on its role in TIPS.

AIM

To determine whether the ICG-R15 can be used for prediction of post-TIPS HE in decompensated cirrhosis patients with portal hypertension (PHT) and compare the clinical value of ICG-R15, Child-Pugh score (CPS), and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting post-TIPS HE with PHT.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 195 patients with PHT who underwent elective TIPS at Beijing Shijitan Hospital from January 2018 to June 2019. All patients underwent the ICG-R15 test, CPS evaluation, and MELD scoring 1 wk before TIPS. According to whether they developed HE or not, the patients were divided into two groups: HE group and non-HE group. The prediction of one-year post-TIPS HE by ICG-R15, CPS and MELD score was evaluated by the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs).

RESULTS

A total of 195 patients with portal hypertension were included and 23% (45/195) of the patients developed post-TIPS HE. The ICG-R15 was identified as an independent predictor of post-TIPS HE. The AUCs for the ICG-R15, CPS, and MELD score for predicting post-TIPS HE were 0.664 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.557-0.743, P = 0.0046), 0.596 (95%CI: 0.508-0.679, P = 0.087), and 0.641 (95%CI: 0.554-0.721, P = 0.021), respectively. The non-parametric approach (Delong-Delong & Clarke-Pearson) showed that there was statistical significance in pairwise comparison between AUCs of ICG-R15 and MELD score (P = 0.0229).

CONCLUSION

The ICG-R15 has appreciated clinical value for predicting the occurrence of post-TIPS HE and is a choice for evaluating the prognosis of patients undergoing TIPS.

Validation of a new prognostic model to predict short and medium-term survival in patients with liver cirrhosis

Background

MELD score and MELD score derivates are used to objectify and grade the risk of liver-related death in patients with liver cirrhosis. We recently proposed a new predictive model that combines serum creatinine levels and maximum liver function capacity (LiMAx®), namely the CreLiMAx risk score. In this validation study we have aimed to reproduce its diagnostic accuracy in patients with end-stage liver disease.

Methods

Liver function of 113 patients with liver cirrhosis was prospectively investigated. Primary end-point of the study was liver-related death within 12 months of follow-up.

Results

Alcoholic liver disease was the main cause of liver disease (n = 51; 45%). Within 12 months of follow-up 11 patients (9.7%) underwent liver transplantation and 17 (15.1%) died (13 deaths were related to liver disease, two not). Measures of diagnostic accuracy were comparable for MELD, MELD-Na and the CreLiMAx risk score as to power in predicting short and medium-term mortality risk in the overall cohort: AUROCS for liver related risk of death were for MELD [6 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.80–0.98) p < 0.001; 12 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.81–0.96) p < 0.001]; MELD-Na [6 months 0.93 (95% CI 0.85–1.00) p < 0.001 and 12 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.80–0.98) p < 0.001]; CPS 6 months 0.91 (95% CI 0.85–0.97) p < 0.01 and 12 months 0.88 (95% CI 0.80–0.96) p < 0.001] and CreLiMAx score [6 months 0.80 (95% CI 0.67–0.96) p < 0.01 and 12 months 0.79 (95% CI 0.64–0.94) p = 0.001]. In a subgroup analysis of patients with Child-Pugh Class B cirrhosis, the CreLiMAx risk score remained the only parameter significantly differing in non-survivors and survivors. Furthermore, in these patients the proposed score had a good predictive performance.

Conclusion

The CreLiMAx risk score appears to be a competitive and valid tool for estimating not only short- but also medium-term survival of patients with end-stage liver disease. Particularly in patients with Child-Pugh Class B cirrhosis the new score showed a good ability to identify patients not at risk of death.

Hospitalization Before Liver Transplantation Predicts Posttransplant Patient Survival: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

In contrast to donor factors predicting outcomes of liver transplantation (LT), few suitable recipient parameters have been identified. To this end, we performed an in-depth analysis of hospitalization status and duration prior to LT as a potential risk factor for posttransplant outcome. The pretransplant hospitalization status of all patients undergoing LT between 2005 and 2016 at the Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin was analyzed retrospectively using propensity score matching. At the time of organ acceptance, 226 of 1134 (19.9%) recipients were hospitalized in an intensive care unit (ICU), 146 (12.9%) in a regular ward (RW) and 762 patients (67.2%) were at home. Hospitalized patients (RW and ICU) compared with patients from home showed a dramatically shorter 3-month survival (78.7% versus 94.4%), 1-year survival (66.3% versus 87.3%), and 3-year survival (61.7% versus 81.7%; all P < 0.001), whereas no significant difference was detected for 3-year survival between ICU and RW patients (61.5% versus 62.3%; P = 0.60). These results remained significant after propensity score matching. Furthermore, in ICU patients, but not in RW patients, survival correlated with days spent in the ICU before LT (1-year survival: 1-6 versus 7-14 days: 73.7% versus 60.5%, P = 0.04; 7-14 days versus >14 days, 60.5% versus 51.0%, P = 0.006). In conclusion, hospitalization status before transplantation is a valuable predictor of patient survival following LT.

Total tumour volume as a prognostic factor in patients with resectable colorectal cancer liver metastases

Background

Although total tumour volume (TTV) may have prognostic value for hepatic resection in certain solid cancers, its importance in colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) remains unexplored. This study investigated its prognostic value in patients with resectable CRLM.

Method

This was a retrospective review of patients who underwent hepatic resection for CRLM between 2008 and 2017 in a single institution. TTV was measured from CT images using three‐dimensional construction software; cut‐off values were determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. Potential prognostic factors, overall survival (OS) and recurrence‐free survival (RFS) were determined using multivariable and Kaplan–Meier analyses.

Results

Some 94 patients were included. TTV cut‐off values for OS and RFS were 100 and 10 ml respectively. Right colonic primary tumours, primary lymph node metastasis and bilobar liver metastasis were included in the multivariable analysis of OS; a TTV of 100 ml or above was independently associated with poorer OS (hazard ratio (HR) 6·34, 95 per cent c.i. 2·08 to 17·90; P = 0·002). Right colonic primary tumours and primary lymph node metastasis were included in the RFS analysis; a TTV of 10 ml or more independently predicted poorer RFS (HR 1·90, 1·12 to 3·57; P = 0·017). The 5‐year OS rate for a TTV of 100 ml or more was 41 per cent, compared with 67 per cent for a TTV below 100 ml (P = 0·006). Corresponding RFS rates with TTV of 10 ml or more, or less than 10 ml, were 14 and 58 per cent respectively (P = 0·009). A TTV of at least 100 ml conferred a higher rate of unresectable initial recurrences (12 of 15, 80 per cent) after initial hepatic resection.

Conclusion

TTV was associated with RFS and OS after initial hepatic resection for CRLM; TTV of 100 ml or above was associated with a higher rate of unresectable recurrence.

Impact of Albumin-Bilirubin Score on Short- and Long-Term Survival After Living-Donor Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, stratified from the ALBI score, may have prognostic value in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. We aim to evaluate the prognostic abilities of the ALBI score/grade among living-donor liver transplantation patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data of 81 patients who underwent living-donor liver transplant at Kobe University Hospital between June 2000 and October 2018. The efficacy of the ALBI score/grade as a prognostic factor was assessed and compared with that of the well-established Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score.

MAIN FINDINGS

Multivariate analysis indicated that recipient age (P = .003), donor age (P = .003), ALBI score ≥ -1.28 (P = .002), and ALBI grade III (P = .004) were independently associated with post-transplant survival. A high MELD score was not associated with post-transplant survival in univariate or multivariate analyses. Although there was no significant difference in the overall survival rate relative to recipient and donor age, ALBI score/grade was significantly associated with the 1- and 5-year survival rates (P = .023, P = .005). ALBI scores specifically detected fatal complications of post-transplant graft dysfunction (P = .031) and infection (P = .020).

CONCLUSION

ALBI score/grade predicted patient survival more precisely than the MELD score did, suggesting that it is a more useful prognostic factor compared to the MELD score in living-donor liver transplantation cases.

Next-Generation DILI Biomarkers: Prioritization of Biomarkers for Qualification and Best Practices for Biospecimen Collection in Drug Development

The diagnosis and management of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) remains a challenge in clinical trials in drug development. The qualification of emerging biomarkers capable of predicting DILI soon after the initiation of treatment, differentiating DILI from underlying liver disease, identifying the causal entity, and assigning appropriate treatment options after DILI is diagnosed are needed. Qualification efforts have been hindered by lack of properly stored and consented biospecimens that are linked to clinical data relevant to a specific context of use. Recommendations are made for biospecimen collection procedures, with the focus on clinical trials, and for specific emerging biomarkers to focus qualification efforts.

The decreasing predictive power of MELD in an era of changing etiology of liver disease

The field of liver transplantation has shifted considerably in the MELD era, including changing allocation, immunosuppression, and liver failure etiologies, as well as better supportive therapies. Our aim was to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the MELD score over time. The United Network for Organ Sharing provided de-identified data on 120 156 patients listed for liver transplant from 2002-2016. The ability of the MELD score to predict 90-day mortality was evaluated by a concordance (C-) statistic and corroborated with competing risk analysis. The MELD score's concordance with 90-day mortality has downtrended from 0.80 in 2003 to 0.70 in 2015. While lab MELD scores at listing and transplant climbed in that interval, score at waitlist death remained steady near 35. Listing age increased from 50 to 54 years. HCV-positive status at listing dropped from 33 to 17%. The concordance of MELD and mortality does not differ with age (>60 = 0.73, <60 = 0.74), but is lower in diseases that are increasing most rapidly-alcoholic liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-and higher in those that are declining, particularly in HCV-positive patients (HCV positive = 0.77; negative = 0.73). While MELD still predicts mortality, its accuracy has decreased; changing etiology of disease may contribute.

End-stage liver disease score and future liver remnant volume predict post-hepatectomy liver failure in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the world’s sixth most common malignant tumor and the third cause of cancer death. Although great progress has been made in hepatectomy, it is still associated with a certain degree of risk of post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF), which extends the length of hospital stay and remains the leading cause of postoperative death. Studies have shown that assessment of hepatic functional reserve before hepatectomy is beneficial for reducing the incidence of PHLF.

AIM

To assess the value of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score combined with standardized future liver remnant (sFLR) volume in predicting PHLF in patients undergoing hepatectomy for HCC.

METHODS

This study was attended by 238 patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy between January 2015 and January 2018. Discrimination of sFLR volume, MELD score, and sFLR/MELD ratio to predict PHLF was evaluated according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

The patients were divided into two groups according to whether PHLF occurred after hepatectomy. The incidence of PHLF was 8.4% in our research. The incidence of PHLF increased with the decrease in sFLR volume and the increase in MELD score. Both sFLR volume and MELD score were considered independent predictive factors for PHLF. Moreover, the cut-off value of the sFLR/MELD score to predict PHLF was 0.078 (P < 0.001). This suggests that an sFLR/MELD ≥ 0.078 indicates a higher incidence of PHLF than an sFLR/MELD < 0.078.

CONCLUSION

MELD combined with sFLR is a reliable and effective PHLF predictor, which is superior to MELD score or sFLR volume alone.

Serum levels of ferritin and transferrin serve as prognostic factors for mortality and survival in patients with end-stage liver disease: A propensity score-matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with end-stage liver disease are known to suffer from a significantly high risk of mortality, but accurate prediction of the course of disease is challenging.

OBJECTIVE

The study aim was to evaluate the independent prognostic and clinical importance of serum levels of ferritin and transferrin for 90-day survival of patients with liver disease.

METHODS

Patients with end-stage liver disease treated during a 2-year period were enrolled retrospectively in a single-centre study. Unmatched and propensity score matching (PSM) analyses were applied.

RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 286 patients with end-stage liver disease, of which 22.9% died during the observational period. High serum ferritin levels and low serum transferrin levels were associated significantly with increased 90-day mortality in the unmatched (p < 0.001) and PSM study population (p = 0.017). Serum levels of ferritin and transferrin had high prognostic capability to predict 90-day survival similar to the Model for End-stage Liver Disease. Patients with serum ferritin values >1030.5 µg/l had a 50% risk of dying within 11 days after measurement, which translated up to a 90-day mortality of 83%.

CONCLUSION

Serum levels of ferritin and transferrin have independent and excellent capabilities to determine prognosis in patients with end-stage liver disease. Ferritin measurements can reliably identify those with high mortality in daily practice.

Risk Indices in Deceased-donor Organ Allocation for Transplantation: Review From an Australian Perspective

Over the last decade, organ donation and transplantation rates have increased in Australia and worldwide. Donor and recipient characteristics for most organ types have generally broadened, resulting in the need to consider more complex data in transplant decision-making. As a result of some of these pressures, the Australian software used for donor and recipient data management is currently being updated. Because of the in-built capacity for improved data management, organ allocation processes will have the opportunity to be significantly reviewed, in particular the possible use of risk indices (RIs) to guide organ allocation and transplantation decisions. We aimed to review RIs used in organ allocation policies worldwide and to compare their use to current Australian protocols. Significant donor, recipient, and transplant variables in the indices were summarized. We conclude that Australia has the opportunity to incorporate greater use of RIs in its allocation policies and in transplant decision-making processes. However, while RIs can assist with organ allocation and help guide prognosis, they often have significant limitations which need to be properly appreciated when deciding how to best use them to guide clinical decisions.

N-myc and STAT interactor correlates with severity and prognosis in acute-on-chronic liver failure of hepatitis B virus

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is characterized by acute deterioration of chronic liver disease with excessive inflammation. N-myc and STAT interactor (NMI), an inflammation-mediated protein, involves in various inflammatory-related diseases, but the role of NMI in development and prognosis in HBV-ACLF remains to be elucidated.

METHODS

Serum NMI from healthy controls (HCs, n = 20), chronic hepatitis B (CHB, n = 50) patients, and HBV-ACLF patients (n = 50) was determined using ELISA. NMI from peripheral blood mononuclear cells and liver was confirmed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, Western blot, and immunofluorescence.

RESULTS

Serum NMI was increased 1.9-fold or 2.2-fold from HBV-ACLF patients compared with that from HCs (P < 0.01) or CHB patients (P < 0.01). Consistently, NMI from peripheral blood mononuclear cells was upregulated significantly from HBV-ACLF patients compared with that from HCs and CHB patients at mRNA and protein levels. Hepatic NMI from HBV-ACLF patients was 2.8-fold higher than that from HCs. Serum NMI was correlated with Model for End-stage Liver Disease, Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF score, and ACLF grades. In contrast, serum NMI was significantly decreased in HBV-ACLF ameliorated patients during follow-up, whereas serum NMI was sustained at high levels in non-ameliorated patients. Elevated serum NMI (≥ 198.5 pg/mL) was correlated with poor survival rate of HBV-ACLF patients. Using receiver operating characteristics curves, it was suggested that serum NMI was a potential biomarker in predicting 3-month mortality of HBV-ACLF patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the potential role of NMI in assessing the development and prognosis of HBV-ACLF.

Indocyanine green retention test in cirrhosis and portal hypertension: Accuracy and relation to severity of disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension often develop complications relating to hepatic excretory dysfunction. The standard measurement of the hepatic excretion is the constant infusion indocyanine green clearance (ICG_CI ) technique. The ICG 15-min retention test (ICG-r15) is faster, more patient friendly, and cheaper. The aims were to compare the ICG-r15 test with the standard method, to assess relations to patient characteristics and survival, and to assess the ICG-r15 level in healthy control subjects.

METHODS

This study included 68 patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension (Child class A/B/C:17/37/14). All patients underwent a full liver vein catheterization and hemodynamic evaluation with determination of ICG-r15 and ICG_CI as the reference in a subset of 38 patients. Sixteen healthy control subjects were included for compiling a reference interval.

RESULTS

The ICG-r15 was increased in the cirrhotic patients with increasing values in parallel with liver dysfunction (15/41/58%) in Child class A/B/C compared with 7% in the controls (P < 0.001). ICG-r15 correlated highly significantly with the ICG_CI (r = -0.96, P < 0.0001) and in a multivariate regression analysis with hepatic venous pressure gradient, markers of liver dysfunction and hyperdynamic circulation (P < 0.05-0.005). In the control group, normal reference values ranged from 0% to 13%. In addition, ICG-r15 was significantly related to mortality in the patient group (P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Indocyanine green-r15 reflects portal hypertension, the degree of hepatic failure, and survival and may replace the standard ICG_CI . A more elaborated reference interval needs to be compiled, and the prognostic value of ICG-r15 should be validated.

Prospective Assessment of Liver Function by an Enzymatic Liver Function Test to Estimate Short-Term Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

MELD attempts to objectively predict the risk of mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis and is commonly used to prioritize organ allocation. Despite the usefulness of the MELD, updated metrics could further improve the accuracy of estimates of survival.

AIMS

To assess and compare the prognostic ability of an enzymatic ¹³C-based liver function test (LiMAx) and distinct markers of liver function to predict 3-month mortality of patients with chronic liver failure.

METHODS

We prospectively investigated liver function of 268 chronic liver failure patients without hepatocellular carcinoma. Primary study endpoint was liver-related death within 3 months of follow-up. Prognostic values were calculated using Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The Cox proportional hazard model indicated that LiMAx (p < 0.001) and serum creatinine values (p < 0.001) were the significant parameters independently associated with the risk of liver failure-related death. Logistic regression analysis revealed LiMAx and serum creatinine to be independent predictors of mortality. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for MELD (0.86 [0.80-0.92]) and for a combined score of LiMAx and serum creatinine (0.83 [0.76-0.90]) were comparable.

CONCLUSIONS

Apart from serum creatinine levels, enzymatic liver function measured by LiMAx was found to be an independent predictor of short-term mortality risk in patients with liver cirrhosis. A risk score combining both determinants allows reliable prediction of short-term prognosis considering actual organ function. Trial Registration Number (German Clinical Trials Register) # DRKS00000614.

Assessment of the Learning Process After Introducing a New Liver Transplantation Procedure in a Center With Extensive Experience in Kidney Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LTx) is one of the most complex transplant procedures. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the learning process can be observed after the introduction of LTx in a center with extensive previous experience in renal transplantation.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis included 264 primary LTx procedures performed with the piggyback technique (2005-2016). The procedures were divided into 4 equal groups. The characteristics of the recipients, data related to the surgery, and the postoperative course and complications were analyzed.

RESULTS

We observed a significant reduction in surgical time and in the anhepatic phase duration between Group 1 and the other groups (median surgical time was 455 minutes vs 415 minutes, 410 minutes and 387 minutes, respectively, P < .05; median anhepatic phase duration was 75 min vs 60 min, 62 min, 60 min, respectively, P < .05). There was a decrease in the number of transfused blood units (median in Group 1 of 6 packs vs 3 packs in Group 4, P < .05) and a decrease in blood recovered from the operating field using the Cell Saver system (median in Group 1 of 1570 mL vs 1057 mL, 1123 mL, and 1045 mL, respectively, P < .05). A significant reduction in the number of hemorrhages was found (1.5% in Group 4 vs 13.6%, 10.6%, and 7.6% in the other groups P < .05). The remaining studied parameters were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Extensive previous transplantation experience affected the lack of typical features of the learning process.

Stratifying Mortality in a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Waiting List: A Brazilian Single-Center Study

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) system reliably predicts mortality in cirrhotic patients. However, the etiology of liver disease and presence of portal vein thrombosis are not directly taken into account in MELD score. Its impact on the outcomes of patients on the waiting list is still unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality and access to transplantation regarding etiology of liver disease and portal vein thrombosis (PVT).

METHODS

A total of 465 adult patients on the liver waiting list from August 2015 to August 2016 were followed up until August 2017. Patients were divided into groups according to the etiology of liver disease and presence of PVT.

RESULTS

The most frequent etiologies were hepatitis C (26.88%), alcoholic cirrhosis (26.02%) and cryptogenic cirrhosis (10.75%). Death while on the waiting list occurred in 168 patients (36.1%) and was more frequent in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH, 65.4%) and alcoholic cirrhosis (41.3%). A total of 142 (30.5%) patients underwent transplantation and viral, autoimmune, and biliary diseases showed higher proportion of transplantation (36.3%, 53.8%, and 34%, respectively; P < .01). Mean delta-MELD at the study endpoint was higher in patients with autoimmune hepatitis, biliary diseases, and NASH (8.3 ± 7.2, 8.3 ± 9.1, and 7.5 ± 9.1, respectively; P < .01). A total 77 patients (16.7%) presented PVT. There was no significant difference in outcomes between patients with and without PVT.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with NASH and alcoholic liver disease had higher mortality while on the waiting list, whereas patients with viral and autoimmune hepatitis had higher transplantation rate. Outcomes were not influenced by PVT.

Access to Liver Transplantation in Different ABO-Blood Groups and "Exceptions Points" in a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Allocation System: A Brazilian Single-Center Study

BACKGROUND

In the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) system, patients with "MELD exceptions" points may have unfair privilege in the competition for liver grafts. Furthermore, organ distribution following identical ABO blood types may also result in unjust organ allocation. The aim of this study was to investigate access to liver transplantation in a tertiary Brazilian center, regarding "MELD exceptions" situations and among ABO-blood groups.

METHODS

A total of 465 adult patients on the liver waitlist from August 2015 to August 2016 were followed up until August 2017. Patients were divided into groups according to ABO-blood type and presence of "exceptions points."

RESULTS

No differences in outcomes were observed among ABO-blood groups. However, patients from B and AB blood types spent less time on the list than patients from A and O groups (median, 46, 176, 415, and 401 days, respectively; P = .03). "Exceptions points" were granted for 141 patients (30.1%), hepatocellular carcinoma being the most common reason (52.4%). Patients with "exceptions points" showed higher transplantation rate, lower mortality on the list, and lower delta-MELD than non-exceptions patients (56.7% vs 19.1% [P < .01]; 18.4% vs 38.5% [P < .01], and 2.0 ± 2.6 vs 6.9 ± 7.0 [P < .01], respectively). Patients with refractory ascites had a higher mortality rate than those with other "exceptions" or without (48%).

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD system provides equal access to liver transplantation among ABO-blood types, despite shorter time on the waitlist for AB and B groups. The current MELD exception system provides advantages for candidates with "exception points," resulting in superior outcomes compared with those without exceptions.

Prediction versus aetiology: common pitfalls and how to avoid them

Prediction research is a distinct field of epidemiologic research, which should be clearly separated from aetiological research. Both prediction and aetiology make use of multivariable modelling, but the underlying research aim and interpretation of results are very different. Aetiology aims at uncovering the causal effect of a specific risk factor on an outcome, adjusting for confounding factors that are selected based on pre-existing knowledge of causal relations. In contrast, prediction aims at accurately predicting the risk of an outcome using multiple predictors collectively, where the final prediction model is usually based on statistically significant, but not necessarily causal, associations in the data at hand.In both scientific and clinical practice, however, the two are often confused, resulting in poor-quality publications with limited interpretability and applicability. A major problem is the frequently encountered aetiological interpretation of prediction results, where individual variables in a prediction model are attributed causal meaning. This article stresses the differences in use and interpretation of aetiological and prediction studies, and gives examples of common pitfalls.

Medical and Obstetric Complications Among Pregnant Women With Liver Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate clinical characteristics and obstetric outcomes in pregnant women with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective matched cohort study of women with liver cirrhosis between January 2005 and January 2016 in a university hospital. Women in a case group were matched to women in a control group according to year of delivery, age, body mass index, and parity in a 1:4 ratio. Bivariable and multivariable analyses were performed to compare the prevalence of the primary composite outcome, which included any one of the following: fetal or neonatal demise, placental abruption, preeclampsia, preterm delivery at less than 37 weeks of gestation, and small-for-gestational age neonate between women in the case group and those in the control group.

RESULTS

During the study period, the number of deliveries was approximately 110,000. Of these, 33 women with liver cirrhosis were identified, yielding an estimated frequency of cirrhosis of 1 per 3,333 pregnancies [95% confidence interval (CI) 3,313-3,353]. Thirty-one of these 33 women met all inclusion criteria. The most common etiology of cirrhosis was alcoholic liver disease. The rate of the primary outcome was 61% in women with cirrhosis and 12% in women in the control group. There were no cases of maternal death, and the livebirth rate was 97%. Women with cirrhosis were more likely to be non-Hispanic black, have chronic hypertension, and use alcohol. Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that cirrhosis in pregnancy was associated with the composite outcome (adjusted odds ratio 9.4, 95% CI 3.4-26.2).

CONCLUSION

Despite lower rates of maternal and fetal mortality compared with earlier studies, pregnancy in women with liver cirrhosis is still associated with a high risk of adverse obstetric outcomes.

Alcoholic hepatitis: current trends in management

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Alcohol consumption is increasing globally, as are complications of alcohol-related liver disease, including the most severe manifestation, alcoholic hepatitis. Despite the increased prevalence, many patients hospitalized with alcoholic hepatitis are either not diagnosed or inadequately treated leading to significant morbidity and high mortality rates. The purpose of this review is to discuss current challenges in the diagnosis and management of this frequently fatal condition.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies and meta-analyses have improved our understanding of both the evaluation and treatment of alcoholic hepatitis including the diagnostic criteria, appropriate use of glucocorticoids and other therapeutic modalities including novel disease-specific therapeutic agents and indications for considering liver transplantation.

SUMMARY

Glucocorticoid therapy and enteral nutrition represent the best options for reducing short-term mortality in patients with the severe form of acute alcoholic hepatitis. The efficacy of other medications such as pentoxifylline as currently used does not support a role for use outside clinical trials. While the current management options for alcoholic hepatitis remain insufficient, improvements in diagnosis, determining prognosis and severity and the potential role of novel treatments provides encouragement that outcomes from this devastating condition will improve.

Transplant-related survival benefit should influence prioritization for liver transplantation especially in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Transplant-related survival benefit is calculated as the difference between life expectancy with transplantation and life expectancy without transplantation. Determining eligibility and prioritization for liver transplantation based on the highest survival benefit is a superior strategy to prioritization based on the highest urgency (ie, the highest wait-list mortality) or the highest utility (ie, the highest posttransplant survival) because prioritization based on the highest survival benefit maximizes the overall life expectancy of all patients in need of liver transplantation. Although the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-based prioritization system was designed as an urgency-based system, in practice it functions to a large extent as a survival benefit-based system, when the natural MELD score is used without exceptions. Survival benefit considerations should be used to determine the consequences of deviating from prioritization based on the natural MELD score, such as when exception points are awarded to patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that are independent of MELD score or tumor burden, or the appropriateness of expanding eligibility for transplantation. The most promising application of survival benefit-based prioritization would be to replace the current system of prioritization of patients with HCC by one that uses their natural MELD score and tumor characteristics such as HCC tumor burden, serum alpha fetoprotein level, and response to locoregional therapies to predict the impact on survival benefit caused by the presence of HCC and adjust the natural MELD score for prioritization accordingly. Liver Transplantation 23 652-662, 2017 AASLD.

A Review of Organ Transplantation: Heart, Lung, Kidney, Liver, and Simultaneous Liver-Kidney

Heart, lung, kidney, liver, and simultaneous liver-kidney transplants share many features. They all follow the same 7-step process, the same 3 immunosuppressant medications, and the same reason for organ transplantation. Organs are transplanted because of organ failure. The similarities end there. Each organ has its unique causes for failure. Each organ also has its own set of criteria that must be met prior to transplantation. Simultaneous liver-kidney transplant criteria vary per transplant center but are similar in nature. Both the criteria required and the 7-step process are described by the United Network of Organ Sharing, which is a private, nonprofit organization, under contract with the US Department of Health and Human Services. Its function is to increase the number of transplants, improve survival rates after transplantation, promote safe transplant practices, and endorse efficiency. The purpose of this article is to review the reasons transplant is needed, specifically heart, lung, kidney, liver, and simultaneous liver-kidney, and a brief overview of the transplant process including criteria used, contraindications, and medications prescribed.

Hepatic features of Wilson disease

In Wilson disease (WD) defective AT7B function leads to biliary copper excretion and pathologic copper accumulation, particularly in liver and brain, where it induces cellular damage. Liver disease most often precedes neurologic or psychiatric manifestations. In most patients with neurologic or psychiatric symptoms there is some degree of liver disease at the time of disease presentation. Hepatic manifestations of WD can be extremely variable. Patients with clinically asymptomatic WD are often found by family screening or identified on routine laboratory testing. Others may have a clinical picture of chronic active hepatitis or of end-stage liver disease with cirrhosis. A minority present with acute liver failure, often on the background of advanced fibrosis. Complications from liver disease may be related to portal hypertension and concomitant liver disease may accelerate the course of liver disease. Liver cancer may occur in patients with WD, most commonly when cirrhosis and inflammation are present. The prognosis of patients with WD is excellent, especially for those without cirrhosis at the time of diagnosis, but requires timely initiation of appropriate therapy specific for WD and for the patient's liver disease independent of WD.

Comparison of five models for end-stage liver disease in predicting the survival rate of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Prognosis of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is under expectation. Life expectancy more than 3 months is one inclusion criteria for molecular targeted drugs in clinical trials. The main purpose of this research is to compare Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and four MELD-based prognostic models in predicting the survival rate of advanced HCC patients. One hundred eighty-three patients with advanced HCC who were not amendable to standard anti-tumor therapy were retrospectively analyzed. Data were collected to classify patients according to MELD, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with the incorporation of serum sodium (MELD-NA), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to ascites and sodium (MELD-AS), integrated Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (iMELD), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to sodium (MESO) scores at diagnosis. 1-, 3-, and 6-month survivals were the end points used in the analysis. When predicting 1-month survival, MELD-AS, MELD, and MESO were the top 3 ranking staging systems. When predicting 3-month survival, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of MELD-AS is significantly higher than that of the other models (P < 0.05). When predicting 6-month survival, AUCs of MELD-AS and MELD-NA are significantly higher than those of the other models (P < 0.05). Cutoff point of MELD-AS is 23.11 with 40.5 % sensitivity and 93.8 % specificity at 1 month, 9.5 with 76.9 % sensitivity and 59.5 % specificity at 3 months, and 18.5 with 27.0 % sensitivity and 89.1 % specificity at 6 months. MELD-based scores of death group are significantly higher than those of survivors within 1 and 3 months (P < 0.001). Independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate analysis included persistent ascites, serum sodium, and thrombosis. MELD-AS is the best model in the prediction of short and intermediate survival among the five models for end-stage liver disease analyzed for Chinese advanced HCC patients.