Trends in Family Violence Are Not Causally Associated with COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Orders: a Commentary on Piquero et al

Domestic abuse in the Covid-19 pandemic: measures designed to overcome common limitations of trend measurement

Research on pandemic domestic abuse trends has produced inconsistent findings reflecting differences in definitions, data and method. This study analyses 43,488 domestic abuse crimes recorded by a UK police force. Metrics and analytic approaches are tailored to address key methodological issues in three key ways. First, it was hypothesised that reporting rates changed during lockdown, so natural language processing was used to interrogate untapped free-text information in police records to develop a novel indicator of change in reporting. Second, it was hypothesised that abuse would change differentially for those cohabiting (due to physical proximity) compared to non-cohabitees, which was assessed via a proxy measure. Third, the analytic approaches used were change-point analysis and anomaly detection: these are more independent than regression analysis for present purposes in gauging the timing and duration of significant change. However, the main findings were largely contrary to expectation: (1) domestic abuse did not increase during the first national lockdown in early 2020 but increased across a prolonged post-lockdown period, (2) the post-lockdown increase did not reflect change in reporting by victims, and; (3) the proportion of abuse between cohabiting partners, at around 40 percent of the total, did not increase significantly during or after the lockdown. The implications of these unanticipated findings are discussed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-023-00190-7.

COVID, Crime & Criminal Justice: Affirming the Call for System Reform Research

Early into the COVID-19 pandemic, Miller & Blumstein (2020) outlined a theoretical research program (TRP) oriented around themes of contagion control and containment, legal amnesty, system leniency, nonenforcement, and tele-justice. Here, two and a half years later, these lingering themes are revisited to advocate for empirical research informing criminal justice system reform. The pandemic created rare natural experiment research conditions that enable unique and potentially valuable insights on necessitated innovations that may indicate future justice practices and policies. Given the sweeping effects of the shutdown, examples are numerous ranging from staffing analyses to estimate agencies' personnel needs to ensure that basic public safety functions can be met after early retirements and resignations from virus risk and anti-police sentiment, the use of virtual communication in various legal proceedings at arrest, incarceration, and release junctures, and, especially, the risks versus benefits of early release. In addition to better identifying who should be jailed pre-trial, prioritization of calls for service, triaging of court cases, and hygiene and sanitation issues within facilities are other important examples central to a COVID and crime TRP. Attending research could demonstrate the utility of normative operations and identify shortfalls to be addressed during anomic conditions prior to another shutdown or similar event and present, through comparison of innovative and traditional derived outcomes, system reform and improvement opportunities. By seizing upon rare data made possible by natural experimental COVID generated conditions, researchers can meaningfully investigate the ongoing applicability of justice system adaptations mandated by the pandemic in terms of effectiveness and efficiency toward the interrelated goals of evidence-based practice discovery and justice reform.

Effects of COVID-19 shutdowns on domestic violence in US cities

We empirically investigate the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on domestic violence using incident-level data on both domestic-related calls for service and crime reports of domestic violence assaults from the 18 major US police departments for which both types of records are available. Although we confirm prior reports of an increase in domestic calls for service at the start of the pandemic, we find that the increase preceded mandatory shutdowns, and there was an incremental decline following the government imposition of restrictions. We also find no evidence that domestic violence crimes increased. Rather, police reports of domestic violence assaults declined significantly during the initial shutdown period. There was no significant change in intimate partner homicides during shutdown months and victimization survey reports of intimate partner violence were lower. Our results fail to support claims that shutdowns increased domestic violence and suggest caution before drawing inference or basing policy solely on data from calls to police.

Down with the sickness? Los Angeles burglary and COVID-19 restrictions

Objectives

To provide a partial test of routine activities theory through a spatio-temporal analysis of the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on burglary in Los Angeles.

Methods

Spatial point pattern tests, clustering, and non-parametric permutations tests were used to identify changes in burglary in the highest restriction period of 2020 as well as comparison periods for the past 10 years while controlling for the zoning within Los Angeles.

Results

COVID-19 restrictions significantly increased crime in commercial/industrial areas while it reduced crime in residential areas.

Conclusions

The predictions of routine activities theory were supported in regard to the importance of capable guardianship. Findings indicate that not only were the areas expected to see an increase in capable guardianship shown to have reduced crime, but that crime more generally across the city became more commercially oriented in terms of zoning as more individuals were confined to residential areas.

Changes in the identification and management of mental health and domestic abuse among pregnant women during the COVID-19 lockdown: regression discontinuity study

BACKGROUND

Domestic violence and abuse (DVA) and mental illness during pregnancy have long-lasting and potentially serious consequences, which may have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic.

AIMS

To investigate how the UK COVID-19 lockdown policy influenced the identification of DVA and depressive symptoms during pregnancy in health services in South-East London in Spring 2020, using eLIXIR (Early-Life Data Cross-Linkage in Research) maternity and mental routine healthcare data.

METHOD

We used a regression discontinuity approach, with a quasi-experimental study design, to analyse the effect of the transition into and out of the COVID-19 lockdown on the rates of positive depression screens, DVA recorded in maternity and secondary mental health services, and contact with secondary mental health services during pregnancy.

RESULTS

We analysed 26 447 pregnancies from 1 October 2018 to 29 August 2020. The rate of DVA recorded in maternity services was low throughout the period (<0.5%). Within secondary mental health services, rates of DVA dropped by 78% (adjusted odds ratio 0.219, P = 0.012) during lockdown, remaining low after lockdown. The rate of women screening positive for depression increased by 40% (adjusted odds ratio 1.40, P = 0.023), but returned to baseline after lockdown lifted.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of DVA identification in secondary mental health services dropped during and after lockdown, whereas overall rates of DVA identified in maternity services were concerningly low. Healthcare services must adopt guidance to facilitate safe enquiry, particularly in remote consultations. Further research is vital to address the longer-term impact on women's mental health caused by the increase in depression during the lockdown.

Family Relationships Under Work From Home: Exploring the Role of Adaptive Processes

Work-from-home (WFH) influences both work and life, and further impacts family relationships. The current study explored the impacts of WFH on family relationships during the COVID-19 pandemic and identified effective adaptive processes for maintaining family relationships under WFH. Using the Vulnerability-Stress-Adaptation (VSA) model, the study examined the roles of adaptive processes (spending time with family members and balancing work and life) and demographic differences (gender, age, marital status, and education level) in the relation between WFH and family relationships. Path analysis results based on an online survey (N = 150) suggested that, overall, WFH improved family relationships through proper adaptive processes. WFH had a positive relation to time spent with family members, and this relation was especially salient for workers with lower education levels. While there was no statistically significant overall relation between WFH and work-life balance, older workers tended to engage in increased work-life balance during WFH. Both adaptive processes were positively related to family relationship quality. The findings advance the understanding of family relationships and WFH and provide practical recommendations to enhance family relationships under WFH.

COVID-19, Violent Crime, and Domestic Violence: An Exploratory Analysis

As the world continues to struggle with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been much speculation on the impact of the virus on crime rates, especially violent crime and domestic violence. Disruptions in the patterns of daily, routine activities of life caused by lockdowns have been linked to changes in opportunities for criminal events, and these opportunities may vary based on the type of crime. The purpose of this paper is to examine the rates of violent interpersonal crime and domestic violence in the State of Florida, USA from 1/1/2020 to 12/31/2020. Using counties as the unit of analysis, the rates for selected violent crimes was predicted based on the differential impact of the COVID-19 virus, controlling for various county-level social vulnerability and health-related factors. Comparisons between violent crime levels in 2019 and 2020 were also made. Under opportunity theory, it was predicted that the level of domestic violence would increase in counties that experienced higher infection rates and deaths from COVID-19. Conversely, it was predicted that interpersonal violence would decrease in counties with greater impacts and restrictions due to the COVID-19 virus. The results suggest that as the COVID-19 death rate increased, incidents of domestic violence decreased. Altruism was proposed as an alternative explanation for this atypical finding.

In a world called catastrophe: the impact of COVID-19 on neighbourhood level crime in Vancouver, Canada

OBJECTIVES

To test for statistically significant change in crime rates across neighbourhoods in Vancouver, Canada, resulting from social restrictions within the natural experiment of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Differential local Moran's I is used to identify statistically significant change in crime patterns across Vancouver's neighbourhoods because of COVID-19. These changes are analysed with variables from social disorganization theory constructs using ANOVA.

RESULTS

At the neighbourhood level, all crime types have significant change during COVID, but not always at the city level. Different neighbourhoods have different changes in crime despite these changes appearing to be constant at the city level; local effects asre important to consider. Variables representing the constructs of social disorganization theory are able to predict these changes.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 has changed the patterns of crime in Vancouver, but most often in theoretically expected ways. Local changes are critical to understand crime during a pandemic.

Against All Odds, Femicide Did Not Increase During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Six Spanish-Speaking Countries

This paper tests a situational hypothesis which postulates that the number of femicides should increase as an unintended consequence of the COVID-19-related lockdowns. The monthly data on femicides from 2017 to 2020 collected in six Spanish-speaking countries-Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Panama, Mexico, and Spain-and analyzed using threshold models indicate that the hypothesis must be rejected. The total number of femicides in 2020 was similar to that recorded during each of the three previous years, and femicides did not peak during the months of the strictest lockdowns. In fact, their monthly distribution in 2020 did not differ from the seasonal distribution of femicides in any former year. The discussion criticizes the current state of research on femicide and its inability to inspire effective criminal polices. It also proposes three lines of intervention. The latter are based on a holistic approach that places femicide in the context of crimes against persons, incorporates biology and neuroscience approaches, and expands the current cultural explanations of femicide.

Somehow I always end up alone: COVID-19, social isolation and crime in Queensland, Australia

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically affected social life. In efforts to reduce the spread of the virus, countries around the world implemented social restrictions, including social distancing, working from home, and the shuttering of numerous businesses. These social restrictions have also affected crime rates. In this study, we investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the frequency of offending (crimes include property, violent, mischief, and miscellaneous) in Queensland, Australia. In particular, we examine this impact across numerous settings, including rural, regional and urban. We measure these shifts across the restriction period, as well as the staged relaxation of these restrictions. In order to measure impact of this period we use structural break tests. In general, we find that criminal offences have significantly decreased during the initial lockdown, but as expected, increased once social restrictions were relaxed. These findings were consistent across Queensland's districts, save for two areas. We discuss how these findings are important for criminal justice and social service practitioners when operating within an extraordinary event.