Prognostic factors of long-term survival in geriatric inpatients. Should we change the recommendations for the oldest people?

On-admission serum 25(OH)D level and mortality within one year in older patients

BACKGROUND

Mounting evidence suggests that vitamin D deficiency is associated with a higher risk of many chronic non-skeletal, age-associated diseases as well as mortality.

AIM

To determine, in older patients aged ≥ 80, the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and its association with comorbidity, laboratory tests, length of stay and mortality within one year from blood withdrawal on admission to acute geriatrics ward.

METHODS

We retrospectively surveyed electronic hospital health records of 830 older patients. The recorded data included patient demographics (e.g., age, sex, stay duration, readmissions number, death within one year from blood withdrawal on admission), medical diagnoses, laboratory results, including 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], and medications. We compared the characteristics of the patients who survived to those who died within one year.

RESULTS

On admission, in 53.6% patients, vitamin D levels were lower than 50 nmol/L, and in 32%, the levels were ≤ 35 nmol/L. Persons who died were likely to be older, of male sex, were likely to be admitted for pneumonia or CHF, were likely to have lower level of albumin or hemoglobin, lower level of vitamin D or higher vitamin B12 and higher level of creatinine, were also likely to have had a lengthier hospitalization stay, a greater number of hospitalizations in the last year, a higher number of comorbidities, to have consumption of ≥5 drugs or likely to being treated with insulin, diuretics, antipsychotics, anticoagulants or benzodiazepines. Higher age, male sex, on-admission CHF, higher number of drugs, lower albumin, higher vitamin B12, vitamin D < 50 nmol/L, and consumption of antipsychotics and anticoagulants - were predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Hypovitaminosis D is predictive of mortality in older patients within one year from hospitalization in the acute geriatric ward, but a causal relationship cannot be deduced. Nevertheless, older patients in acute care settings, because of their health vulnerability, should be considered for vitamin D testing. In the acutely ill patients, early intervention with vitamin D might improve outcomes. Accurate evaluation of mortality predictors in this age group patients may be more challenging and require variables that were not included in our study.

Mortality in the Oldest-Old Adults After Discharge From Acute Geriatric Ward

Aim: To examine risk factors for post-discharge mortality in the oldest-old patients. Methods: We have assessed the risk factors for mortality after discharge from acute geriatric ward in 448 patients aged ≥90. Results: Low albumin, high urea, and full dependence were risk factors for mortality within 1 month and within 1 year after discharge from hospital. Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index score, neuroleptic drug treatments and frailty were specific risk factors for post-discharge mortality within 1 year. By Cox regression analysis, the risk factors associated with higher hazard ratios for post-discharge mortality within 14 years follow-up were age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index score, poor functional status, anemia and dementia as comorbidities, neuroleptic drug treatments, low albumin, high urea, and high vitamin B12. Conclusion: Optimal treatment of the condition due to which the patient has been hospitalized and of the medical complications that occurred during hospitalization, while preventing functional decline, might secure longer post-discharge survival.

Identification of Mortality Risks in the Advancement of Old Age: Application of Proportional Hazard Models Based on the Stepwise Variable Selection and the Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Identifying factors that affect mortality requires a robust statistical approach. This study’s objective is to assess an optimal set of variables that are independently associated with the mortality risk of 433 older comorbid adults that have been discharged from the geriatric ward. We used both the stepwise backward variable selection and the iterative Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approaches to the Cox proportional hazards models. Potential predictors of the mortality rate were based on a broad range of clinical data; functional and laboratory tests, including geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI); lymphocyte count; vitamin D, and the age-weighted Charlson comorbidity index. The results of the multivariable analysis identified seven explanatory variables that are independently associated with the length of survival. The mortality rate was higher in males than in females; it increased with the comorbidity level and C-reactive proteins plasma level but was negatively affected by a person’s mobility, GNRI and lymphocyte count, as well as the vitamin D plasma level.

Morbidity Measures Predicting Mortality in Inpatients: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

Morbidity is an important risk factor for mortality and a variety of morbidity measures have been developed to predict patients' health outcomes. The objective of this systematic review was to compare the capacity of morbidity measures in predicting mortality among inpatients admitted to internal medicine, geriatric, or all hospital wards.

DESIGN

A systematic literature search was conducted from inception to March 6, 2019 using 4 databases: Medline, Embase, Cochrane, and CINAHL. Articles were included if morbidity measures were used to predict mortality (registration CRD42019126674).

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Inpatients with a mean or median age ≥65 years.

MEASUREMENTS

Morbidity measures predicting mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 12,800 articles retrieved from the databases, a total of 34 articles were included reporting on inpatients admitted to internal medicine, geriatric, or all hospital wards. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was reported most frequently and a higher CCI score was associated with greater mortality risk, primarily at longer follow-up periods. Articles comparing morbidity measures revealed that the Geriatric Index of Comorbidity was better predicting mortality risk than the CCI, Cumulative Illness Rating Scale, Index of Coexistent Disease, and disease count.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Higher morbidity measure scores are better in predicting mortality at longer follow-up period. The Geriatric Index of Comorbidity was best in predicting mortality and should be used more often in clinical practice to assist clinical decision making.

Cognitive Functioning of Geriatric Patients: Is Hypovitaminosis D the Next Marker of Cognitive Dysfunction and Dementia?

The study objective is to investigate whether vitamin D is associated with the cognitive function of geriatric patients. This cross-sectional study involved 357 patients hospitalized in the geriatric ward who complained of memory problems (mean age: 82.3 years). The level of cognitive function was measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the clinical diagnosis of dementia was established according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) criteria. The serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D was measured with liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The iterative Bayesian model averaging (BMA) procedure was applied to linear and logistic regression models in order to identify the best set of factors describing cognitive dysfunction and dementia, respectively. According to BMA, there is strong evidence that higher vitamin D levels, higher body mass index (BMI), and higher mobility function measured with the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test are independently associated with better cognitive performance and lower risk of dementia. Additionally, there is strong evidence that fewer years of education and lower vitamin B12 plasma levels independently describe worse cognitive performance. However, vitamin B12 levels higher than 800 pg/mL is negatively associated with the MMSE performance. Hypovitaminosis D in geriatric patients is an underrated marker of cognitive dysfunction and dementia.

Efficacy and safety of metformin in the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus in older adults: a systematic review for the development of recommendations to reduce potentially inappropriate prescribing

Background

Metformin is usually prescribed as first line therapy for type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2). However, the benefits and risks of metformin may be different for older people. This systematic review examined the available evidence on the safety and efficacy of metformin in the management of DM2 in older adults. The findings were used to develop recommendations for the electronic decision support tool of the European project PRIMA-eDS.

Methods

The systematic review followed a staged approach, initially searching for systematic reviews and meta-analyses first, and then individual studies when prior searches were inconclusive. The target population was older people (≥65 years old) with DM2. Studies were included if they reported safety or efficacy outcomes with metformin (alone or in combination) for the management of DM2 compared to placebo, usual or no treatment, or other antidiabetics. Using the evidence identified, recommendations were developed using GRADE methodology.

Results

Fifteen studies were included (4 intervention and 11 observational studies). In ten studies at least 80% of participants were 65 years or older and 5 studies reported subgroup analyses by age. Comorbidities were reported by 9 studies, cognitive status was reported by 4 studies and functional status by 1 study. In general, metformin showed similar or better safety and efficacy than other specific or non-specific active treatments. However, these findings were mainly based on retrospective observational studies. Four recommendations were developed suggesting to discontinue the use of metformin for the management of DM2 in older adults with risk factors such as age > 80, gastrointestinal complaints during the last year and/or GFR ≤60 ml/min.

Conclusions

On the evidence available, the safety and efficacy profiles of metformin appear to be better, and certainly no worse, than other treatments for the management of DM2 in older adults. However, the quality and quantity of the evidence is low, with scarce data on adverse events such as gastrointestinal complaints or renal failure. Further studies are needed to more reliably assess the benefits and risks of metformin in very old (>80), cognitively and functionally impaired older people.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12877-017-0574-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Grip strength as a frailty diagnostic component in geriatric inpatients

BACKGROUND

Frailty has emerged as a key medical syndrome predictive of comorbidity, disability, institutionalization and death. As a component of the five frailty phenotype diagnostic criteria, patient grip strength deserves attention as a simple and objective measure of the frailty syndrome. The aim of this study was to assess conditions that influence grip strength in geriatric inpatients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study group consisted of 80 patients aged 78.6±7.0 years [Formula: see text], with 68.8% women, admitted to the Department of Geriatrics. A comprehensive geriatric assessment was complemented with assessment for the frailty phenotype as described by Fried et al for all patients in the study group. Functional assessment included Barthel Index of Activities of Daily Living (Barthel Index), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale and Mini-Mental State Examination.

RESULTS

Three or more frailty criteria were positive in 32 patients (40%), while 56 subjects (70%) fulfilled the frailty criterion of weakness (grip strength test). Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that two independent measures showed positive association with grip strength - Mini-Mental State Examination score (β=0.239; P=0.001) and statin use (β=0.213; P=0.002) - and four independent measures were negatively associated with grip strength - female sex (β=-0.671; P<0.001), C-reactive protein (β=-0.253; P<0.001), prior myocardial infarction (β=-0.190; P=0.006) and use of an antidepressant (β=-0.163; P=0.018). Low physical activity was identified as the only independent qualitative frailty component associated with 2-year mortality in multivariate logistic regression analysis after adjustment for age and sex (odds ratio =6.000; 95% CI =1.357-26.536; P=0.018).

CONCLUSION

Cognitive function, somatic comorbidity and medical treatment affect grip strength as a measure of physical frailty in geriatric inpatients. Grip strength was not predictive of 2-year mortality in this group.

Use of Health Resources and Healthcare Costs associated with Frailty: The FRADEA Study

BACKGROUND

Frailty is associated with adverse health outcomes, but its association with hospital healthcare costs has not been analyzed. The main objective was to estimate the adjusted annual costs and use of hospital healthcare resources in frail older adults compared to non frail ones.

DESIGN

FRADEA Study. Mean follow-up 1044 days (SD 314).

SETTING

Albacete city, Spain.

PARTICIPANTS

830 adults ≥70 years.

MEASUREMENTS

Age, sex, comorbidity measured with the Charlson index and Fried´s Frailty phenotype as independent variables, and use of hospital resources (hospital admissions, emergency visits, and specialist visits), and hospital healthcare costs as outcome variables. Outcome data were collected from Minimum Data Set of the Complejo Hospitalario Universitario Albacete. The cost base year was 2013. Logistic regression and two-part models were used to analyze the association between frailty and the use of healthcare resources. Generalized Linear Models were applied to estimate the impact of frailty and comorbidity on the healthcare costs.

RESULTS

The average cost associated with the use of health resources was 1,922€/year. Frail participants had an average total cost of health resources of 2,476€/year, pre-frail 2,056€/year, and non-frail 1,217€/year. 67% of the total health cost was associated with hospital admission cost, 29% with specialist visits cost and 4% with emergency visits cost. Frailty and comorbidity were the most important factors associated with the use of hospital healthcare resources. Adjusted healthcare costs were 592€/year and 458€/year greater in frail and pre-frail participants respectively, compared to non-frail ones, and having a Charlson index ≥ 3, was associated with an increased costs of 2,289€/year.

CONCLUSION

Frailty and comorbidity are meaningful and complementary associated with increased hospital healthcare resources use, and related costs.

Survival in Malnourished Older Patients Receiving Post-Discharge Nutritional Support; Long-Term Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Previous analyses have shown that a post-discharge individualized nutritional intervention had positive effects on body weight, lean body mass, functional limitations and fall incidents in malnourished older patients. However, the impact of this intervention on survival has not yet been studied.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this randomized controlled study was to examine the effect of a post-discharge individualized nutritional intervention on survival in malnourished older patients.

METHODS

Malnourished older patients, aged ≥ 60 years, were randomized during hospitalization to a three-months post-discharge nutritional intervention group (protein and energy enriched diet, oral nutritional supplements, vitamin D3/calcium supplement and telephone counseling by a dietitian) or to a usual care regimen (control group). Survival data were collected 4 years after enrollment. Survival analyses were performed using intention-to-treat analysis by Log-rank tests and Cox regression adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

The study population consisted of 94 men (45%) and 116 women with a mean age of 74.5 (SD 9.5) years. There were no statistically significant differences in baseline characteristics. Survival data was available in 208 out of 210 patients. After 1 and 4 years of follow-up, survival rates were respectively 66% and 29% in the intervention group (n=104) and 73% and 30% in the control group (n=104). There were no statistically significant differences in survival between the two groups 1 year (HR= 0.933, 95% CI=0.675-1.289) and 4 years after enrollment (HR=0.928, 95% CI=0.671-1.283).

CONCLUSION

The current study failed to show an effect of a three-months post-discharge multi-component nutritional intervention in malnourished older patients on long-term survival, despite the positive effects on short-term outcome such as functional limitations and falls.

Preoperative assessment of surgical risk: creation of a scoring tool to estimate 1-year mortality after emergency abdominal surgery in the elderly patient

BACKGROUND

The risk of mortality after emergency general surgery (EGS) in elderly patients is prolonged beyond initial hospitalization. Our objective was to develop a preoperative scoring tool to quantify risk of 1-year mortality.

METHODS

Three hundred ninety EGS patients aged 70 years or more were analyzed. Risk factors for 1-year mortality were identified using stepwise-forward logistic multivariate regression and weights assigned using natural logarithm of odds ratios. A geriatric emergency surgery mortality (GEM) score was derived from the aggregate of weighted scores. Leave-one-out cross-validation was performed.

RESULTS

One-year mortality was 32%. Risk factors and their weights were: acute kidney injury (2), American Society of Anesthesiology class greater than or equal to 4 (2), Charlson Comorbidity Index greater than or equal to 4 (1), albumin less than 3.5 mg/dL (1), and body mass index (less than 18.5 kg/m² [1]; 18.5 to 29.9 kg/m² [0]; ≥30 kg/m² [-1]). One-year mortality was: GEM 0 to 1 (0% to 7%); GEM 2 to 5 (32% to 68%); GEM 6 to 8 (94% to 100%). C-statistics were .82 and .75 in training and validation data sets, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A simple score using 5 clinical variables predicts 1-year mortality after EGS with reasonable accuracy and assists in preoperative counseling.

Objective drivers of subjective well-being in geriatric inpatients: mobility function and level of education are general predictors of self-evaluated health, feeling of loneliness, and severity of depression symptoms

Purpose

Identification of optimal predictors for different indicators of subjective well-being (SWB) in geriatric inpatients: (1) self-evaluated health status (SEH), (2) feeling of loneliness (FoL), and (3) severity of depression symptoms (SoDS). Investigation of the relationship between response categories of the SWB indicators and their predictors.

Methods

The data were collected retrospectively from hospital records. All 555 geriatric inpatients underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment, including the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test. The Bayesian information criterion was applied in ordinal logistic regression models to identify optimal predictors of SEH, FoL, and SoDS among different objective factors.

Results

After controlling for high-stress situations in the recent past, motor slowness measured with the TUG test, and a level of education were jointly selected as the best predictors of all three SWB indicators. The speed of performing the TUG test improved SEH (OR = 2.08) and decreased both FoL (OR = 0.41) and SoDS (OR = 0.41). A higher level of education improved SEH (OR = 1.05) and alleviated both FoL (OR = 0.96) and SoDS (OR = 0.92). Additionally, a higher level of SEH was positively correlated with a lower BMI, improved instrumental activities of daily living (I-ADL), and higher hemoglobin level. FoL was reinforced by the level of comorbidity, and SoDS was increased by impaired basic ADL.

Conclusion

Although SWB in geriatric inpatients can be explained by objective comorbidities and disabilities, the good motor function (i.e., a TUG test outcome of less than about 20 s) and a higher level of education were the general predictors that exert an independent beneficial impact on all three SWB indicators.

Frailty as a Predictor of Acute Kidney Injury in Hospitalized Elderly Patients: A Single Center, Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Elderly patients have an increased risk for acute kidney injury (AKI). However, few studies have reported on predictors for AKI in geriatric patients. Therefore, we aimed at determining the effect of frailty as a predictor of AKI.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 533 hospitalized elderly patients (aged ≥ 65 years) who had their creatinine levels measured (≥ 1 measurement) during admission for a period of 1 year (2013) and conducted a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) within 1 year before the index hospitalization. We examined five variables (activity of daily living [ADL] and instrumental ADL dependence, dementia, nutrition, and polypharmacy) from CGA. We categorized the patients into 3 groups according to the tertile of aggregate frailty scores: Group 1, score 1-2; Group 2, score 3-4; Group 3, score 5-8).

RESULTS

Fifty-four patients (10.1%) developed AKI (median duration, 4 days). The frailest group (Group 3) showed an increased risk of AKI as compared to Group 1, (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.536, P = 0.002). We found that discriminatory accuracy for AKI improved with the addition of the tertile of aggregate frailty score to covariates (area under the receiver operator characteristics curves [AUROC] 0.641, AUROC 0.739, P = 0.004). Forty-six patients (8.6%) were transferred to nursing facilities and 477 patients (89.5%) were discharged home. The overall 90-day and 1-year mortality for elderly inpatients were 7.9% and 26.3%. The frailest group also demonstrated an increased risk of discharge to nursing facilities, and 90-day and 1-year mortality as compared to Group 1, independent of AKI severity (nursing facilities: odd ratio = 4.843, P = 0.002; 90-day mortality: HR = 6.555, P = 0.002; 1-year mortality: HR = 3.249, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that frailty may independently predict the development of AKI and adverse outcomes in geriatric inpatients.

A comparison of Frailty Indexes Based on a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment for the Prediction of Adverse Outcomes

OBJECTIVE

To compare the ability of different frailty indexes based on a standardized comprehensive geriatric assessment (FI-CGAs) for predicting adverse outcomes.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Prospective cohort study. Geriatric wards of a general hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

307 hospitalized patients ≥ 65 years.

MEASUREMENTS

The FI-CGA-10D (potential health deficits in ten functional domains), the FI-CGA-10D+CM (aforementioned potential health deficits and co-morbidity burden) and the FI-CGA-MIHD (multiple, individual potential health deficits, including functional deficits, co-morbid diseases, amongst others) were assessed at baseline during the patients` hospital stay. The FI-CGAs were analyzed as categorical (according to a FI-CGA score < and ≥ 0.25) and continuous variables. Patients were followed up over 6 months.

RESULTS

The FI-CGA-10D, FI-CGA-10+CM and the FI-CGA-MIHD predicted 6-month mortality when expressed as categorical (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC): AUC = 0.611, AUC = 0.637, AUC = 0.616, all p < 0.050, respectively) or continuous variables (AUC = 0.769, AUC = 0.837, AUC = 0.834, all p < 0.001, respectively). AUC comparisons showed that all three FI-CGAs exhibited a comparable ability to predict 6-month mortality when the FI-CGAs were expressed as categorical variables (all p > 0.200) and the FI-CGA-10D+CM and the FI-CGA-MIHD showed a better ability to predict 6-month mortality than the FI-CGA-10D, when the FI-CGAs were expressed as continuous variables (p < 0.001 and p = 0.007, respectively). None of the FI-CGAs predicted any of the other outcomes, i.e., unplanned re-admission to hospital and a fall during follow-up, irrespective of whether the FI-CGAs were expressed as categorical or continuous variables (all p ≥ 0.050).

CONCLUSIONS

The more complex FI-CGAs, i.e., the FI-CGA-10D+CM and the FI-CGA-MIHD, revealed better ability to predict 6 month mortality than the more simple FI-CGA, i.e., the FI-CGA-10D.

Performance of the Medicare Consumer Assessment of Health Care Providers and Systems (CAHPS) Physical Functioning Items

BACKGROUND

Physical functioning is an important health domain for adults.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate physical functioning items in Medicare beneficiaries.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Survey data from the 2010 Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems Medicare survey.

SUBJECTS

The 366,701 respondents were 58% female; 38% were 75 or older; 57% had high school education or less.

MEASURES

Walking, getting in or out of chairs, bathing, dressing, toileting, and eating assessed with 3 response choices: unable to do, have difficulty, do not have difficulty.

RESULTS

Pearson correlations among the 6 items ranged from 0.515 to 0.835 (coefficient α=0.92). A single factor categorical factor analytic model fit the data well (comparative fit index=0.998; root mean square error of approximation=0.083). The item with the highest percentage of respondents reporting no difficulty was eating, followed by toileting, dressing, bathing, getting in and out of a chair, and walking. Threshold parameters from an item response theory-graded response model ranged from -1.983 (between unable to do and have difficulty eating) to -0.551 (between have difficulty and no difficulty walking). Item discrimination parameters ranged from 4.632 (walking) to 8.228 (dressing). IRT-scored physical functioning scores correlated with self-rated general health (r=0.389, n=344,843, P<0.0001) mental health (r=0.296, n=351,254, P<0.0001) and number of chronic conditions (r=-0.229, n=284,507, P<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The physical functioning items target relatively easy activities, providing information for a minority of people in the sample with the lowest levels of physical functioning. Items representing higher levels of physical functioning are needed for the majority of the Medicare beneficiaries.