Circumpolar status of Arctic ptarmigan: Population dynamics and trends

Comparative molecular analyses of Eimeria Schneider (Apicomplexa: Eimeriidae) species from rock ptarmigan in Iceland, Svalbard-Norway, and Japan

The rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) has a Holarctic breeding distribution and is found in arctic and sub-arctic regions. Isolated populations and glacial relicts occur in alpine areas south of the main range, like the Pyrenees in Europe, the Pamir mountains in Central Asia, and the Japanese Alps. In recent decades considerable effort has been made to clarify parasite infections in the rock ptarmigan. Seven Eimeria spp. have been reported parasitizing rock ptarmigan. Two of those species, E. uekii and E. raichoi parasitizing rock ptarmigan (L. m. japonica) in Japan, have been identified genetically. Here we compare partial sequences of nuclear (18S rRNA) and mitochondrial (COI) genes and we detail the morphology of sporulated oocysts of E. uekii and E. raichoi from Japan, E. muta and E. rjupa, from the rock ptarmigan (L. m. islandorum) in Iceland, and two undescribed eimerian morphotypes, Eimeria sp. A, and Eimeria sp. B, from rock ptarmigan (L. m. hyperborea) in Norway (Svalbard in the Norwegian Archipelago). Two morphotypes, ellipsoidal and spheroidal, are recognized for each of the three host subspecies. Our phylogenetic analysis suggests that the ellipsoidal oocyst types, E. uekii, E. muta, and Eimeria sp. A (Svalbard-Norway) are identical and infects rock ptarmigan in Japan, Iceland, and Svalbard-Norway, respectively. Eimeria uekii was first described in Japan in 1981 so that E. muta, described in Iceland in 2007, and Eimeria sp. A in Svalbard-Norway are junior synonyms of E. uekii. Also, phylogenetic analysis shows that the spheroidal oocyst types, E. rjupa and Eimeria sp. B (Svalbard-Norway), are identical, indicating that rock ptarmigan in Iceland and Svalbard-Norway are infected by the same Eimeria species and differ from E. raichoi in Japan.

Sub-zero temperatures and large-scale weather patterns induce tooth damage in Icelandic arctic foxes

Tooth damage in carnivores can reflect shifts in both diet and feeding habits, and in large carnivores, it is associated with increased bone consumption. Variation in tooth condition in Icelandic arctic foxes, a mesocarnivore, was recorded from 854 individual foxes spanning 29 years. We hypothesized that annual climatic variations, which can influence food abundance and accessibility, will influence tooth condition by causing dietary shifts toward less edible prey. We examined tooth condition in relation to four climatic predictors: mean annual winter temperature, indices of both the El Niño anomaly and North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the number of rain-on-snow days (ROS). We found unequivocal evidence for a strong effect of annual climate on tooth condition. Teeth of Icelandic foxes were in better condition when winter temperatures were higher, when the SPG was more positive, and when the number of ROS was low. We also found a substantial subregional effect with foxes from northeastern Iceland having lower tooth damage than those from two western sites. Contradicting our original hypothesis that foxes from northeastern Iceland, where foxes are known to scavenge on large mammal remains (e.g., sheep and horses), would show the highest tooth damage, we suggest that western coastal sites exhibited greater tooth damage because cold winter temperatures lowered the availability of seabirds, causing a shift in diet toward abrasive marine subsidies (e.g., bivalves) and frozen beach wrack. Our study shows that monitoring tooth breakage and wear can be a useful tool for evaluating the impact of climate on carnivore populations and that climate change may influence the condition and fitness of carnivores in complex and potentially conflicting ways.

Climatic forcing and individual heterogeneity in a resident mountain bird: legacy data reveal effects on reproductive strategies

Optimization of clutch size and timing of reproduction have substantial effects on lifetime reproductive success in vertebrates, and both individual quality and environmental variation may impact life history strategies. We tested hypotheses related to maternal investment and timing of reproduction, using 17 years (1978-1994) of individual-based life history data on willow ptarmigan (Lagopus l. lagopus, n = 290 breeding females with n = 319 breeding attempts) in central Norway. We analysed whether climatic variation and individual state variables (age and body mass) affected the number of offspring and timing of reproduction, and individual repeatability in strategies. The results suggest that willow ptarmigan share a common optimal clutch size that is largely independent of measured individual states. While we found no clear direct weather effects on clutch size, higher spring temperatures advanced onset of breeding, and early breeding was followed by an increased number of offspring. Warmer springs were positively related to maternal mass, and mass interacted with clutch size in production of hatchlings. Finally, clutch size and timing of reproduction were highly repeatable within individuals, indicating that individual quality guided trade-offs in reproductive effort. Our results demonstrate how climatic forcing and individual heterogeneity in combination influenced life history traits in a resident montane keystone species.

Herbivore species coexistence in changing rangeland ecosystems: First high resolution national open-source and open-access ensemble models for Iceland

Rangeland ecosystems are changing worldwide with the abandonment of extensive pastoralism practices and greater interest for species coexistence. However, the lack of compiled data on current changes in the abundance and distribution of herbivores challenges rangeland management decisions. Here we gathered and made available for the first time the most extensive set of occurrence data for rangeland herbivores in Iceland in an Open Access framework for transparent and repeatable science-based decisions. We mapped fine scale species distribution overlap to identify areas at risk for wildlife-livestock conflict and overgrazing. Nationwide and long term (1861-2021) occurrence data from 8 independent datasets were used alongside 11 predictor raster layers ("Big Data") to data mine and map the distribution of the domestic sheep (Ovis aries), feral reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus), pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus), and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta islandorum) over the country during the summer. Using algorithms of Maxent in R, RandomForest, TreeNet (stochastic gradient boosting) and MARS (Splines) in Minitab-SPM 8.3, we computed 1 km pixel predictions from machine learning-based ensemble models. Our high-resolution models were tested with alternative datasets, and Area Under the Curve (AUC) values that indicated good (reindeer: 0.8817 and rock ptarmigan: 0.8844) to high model accuracy (sheep: 0.9708 and pink-footed goose: 0.9143). Whenever possible, source data and models are made available online and described with ISO-compliant metadata. Our results illustrate that sheep and pink-footed geese have the greatest overlap in distribution with potential implication for wildlife-livestock conflicts and continued ecosystem degradation even under diminishing livestock abundance at higher elevation. These nationwide models and data are a global asset and a first step in making available the best data for science-based sustainable decision-making about national herbivores affecting species coexistence and environmental management.

Climate change and mercury in the Arctic: Biotic interactions

Global climate change has led to profound alterations of the Arctic environment and ecosystems, with potential secondary effects on mercury (Hg) within Arctic biota. This review presents the current scientific evidence for impacts of direct physical climate change and indirect ecosystem change on Hg exposure and accumulation in Arctic terrestrial, freshwater, and marine organisms. As the marine environment is elevated in Hg compared to the terrestrial environment, terrestrial herbivores that now exploit coastal/marine foods when terrestrial plants are iced over may be exposed to higher Hg concentrations. Conversely, certain populations of predators, including Arctic foxes and polar bears, have shown lower Hg concentrations related to reduced sea ice-based foraging and increased land-based foraging. How climate change influences Hg in Arctic freshwater fishes is not clear, but for lacustrine populations it may depend on lake-specific conditions, including interrelated alterations in lake ice duration, turbidity, food web length and energy sources (benthic to pelagic), and growth dilution. In several marine mammal and seabird species, tissue Hg concentrations have shown correlations with climate and weather variables, including climate oscillation indices and sea ice trends; these findings suggest that wind, precipitation, and cryosphere changes that alter Hg transport and deposition are impacting Hg concentrations in Arctic marine organisms. Ecological changes, including northward range shifts of sub-Arctic species and altered body condition, have also been shown to affect Hg levels in some populations of Arctic marine species. Given the limited number of populations and species studied to date, especially within Arctic terrestrial and freshwater systems, further research is needed on climate-driven processes influencing Hg concentrations in Arctic ecosystems and their net effects. Long-term pan-Arctic monitoring programs should consider ancillary datasets on climate, weather, organism ecology and physiology to improve interpretation of spatial variation and time trends of Hg in Arctic biota.

Drivers and consequences of partial migration in an alpine bird species

Partial migration, where a portion of the population migrates between winter and summer (breeding) areas and the rest remain year-round resident, is a common phenomenon across several taxonomic groups. Several hypotheses have been put forward to explain why some individuals migrate while others stay resident, as well as the fitness consequences of the different strategies. Yet, the drivers and consequences of the decision to migrate or not are poorly understood.We used data from radio-tagged female (n = 73) willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus in an alpine study area in Central Norway to test if (i) the decision to migrate was dependent on individual state variables (age and body weight), (ii) individuals repeated migratory decisions between seasons, and (iii) the choice of migratory strategy was related to reproductive success.Partially supporting our prediction that migratory strategy depends on individual state, we found that juvenile birds with small body sizes were more likely to migrate, whereas large juveniles remained resident. For adult females, we found no relationship between the decision to migrate or stay resident and body weight. We found evidence for high individual repeatability of migratory decision between seasons. Migratory strategy did not explain variation in clutch size or nest fate among individuals, suggesting no direct influence of the chosen strategy on reproductive success.Our results indicate that partial migration in willow ptarmigan is related to juvenile body weight, and that migratory behavior becomes a part of the individual life history as a fixed strategy. Nesting success was not affected by migratory strategy in our study population, but future studies should assess other traits to further test potential fitness consequences.

LOUPING-ILL VIRUS SEROSURVEY OF WILLOW PTARMIGAN (LAGOPUS LAGOPUS LAGOPUS) IN NORWAY

In Norway, the Willow Ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus lagopus) is experiencing population declines and is nationally Red Listed as Near Threatened. Although disease has not generally been regarded as an important factor behind population fluctuations for Willow Ptarmigan in Norway, disease occurrence has been poorly investigated. Both louping-ill virus (LIV) and the closely related tick-borne encephalitis virus are found along the southern part of the Norwegian coast. We assessed whether and where Norwegian Willow Ptarmigan populations have been infected with LIV. We expected to find infected individuals in populations in the southernmost part of the country. We did not expect to find infected individuals in populations further north and at higher altitudes because of the absence of the main vector, the sheep tick (Ixodes ricinus). We collected serum samples on Nobuto filter paper and used a hemagglutination inhibition assay for antibodies against LIV. We collected data at both local and country-wide levels. For local sampling, we collected and analyzed 87 hunter-collected samples from one of the southernmost Willow Ptarmigan populations in Norway. Of these birds, only three positives (3.4%) were found. For the country-wide sampling, we collected serum samples from 163 Willow Ptarmigan carcasses submitted from selected locations all over the country. Of these birds, 32% (53) were seropositive for LIV or a cross-reacting virus. Surprisingly, we found seropositive individuals from locations across the whole country, including outside the known distribution of the sheep tick. These results suggest that either LIV or a cross-reacting virus infects ptarmigan in large parts of Norway, including at high altitudes and latitudes.

Distribution of Eimeria uekii and Eimeria raichoi in cage protection environments for the conservation of Japanese rock ptarmigans (Lagopus muta japonica) in the Japanese Alps

Japanese rock ptarmigans, Lagopus muta japonica, are classified as an endangered species in Japan and are found only in the Japanese Alps. The number of birds has decreased in the last half century and cage protection projects have been undertaken as in situ conservation strategies (one of the projects for the recovery plan of Japanese rock ptarmigan) in the mountains. During the period with cage protections, some chicks died and two Eimeria spp., E. uekii and E. raichoi, were identified in the chicks. Here, we examined the soil within the cages and in the surrounding environment to assess potential sources of infection between July to August 2020. We found high numbers of oocysts in the cages, especially at the back sides where the ptarmigan family frequently congregated, but soils in other areas outside the cages were less contaminated or not contaminated at all. The time required for more than 50% of the oocysts to sporulate at 15, 20 and 25 °C for E. uekii was 20, 11, and 5 h, respectively, and 72, 48 and 18 h, respectively, for E. raichoi. Our results cast some doubt that coprophagia by chicks is the source of infection because chicks consumed fresh cecal feces (approximately within 1 h) as far as we know, and instead, the protected chicks might be directly or indirectly infected by oocysts in soils or the environment.

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Cage protection is effective for protecting chicks of Japanese rock ptarmigans.

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Soils at the back sides in the cages were highly contaminated with Eimeria spp.

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E. uekii can rapidly be sporulated at 15 °C in timber regions.

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Protected chicks might be infected by oocysts in soils or the environment.

Iterative model predictions for wildlife populations impacted by rapid climate change

To improve understanding and management of the consequences of current rapid environmental change, ecologists advocate using long-term monitoring data series to generate iterative near-term predictions of ecosystem responses. This approach allows scientific evidence to increase rapidly and management strategies to be tailored simultaneously. Iterative near-term forecasting may therefore be particularly useful for adaptive monitoring of ecosystems subjected to rapid climate change. Here, we show how to implement near-term forecasting in the case of a harvested population of rock ptarmigan in high-arctic Svalbard, a region subjected to the largest and most rapid climate change on Earth. We fitted state-space models to ptarmigan counts from point transect distance sampling during 2005-2019 and developed two types of predictions: (1) explanatory predictions to quantify the effect of potential drivers of ptarmigan population dynamics, and (2) anticipatory predictions to assess the ability of candidate models of increasing complexity to forecast next-year population density. Based on the explanatory predictions, we found that a recent increasing trend in the Svalbard rock ptarmigan population can be attributed to major changes in winter climate. Currently, a strong positive effect of increasing average winter temperature on ptarmigan population growth outweighs the negative impacts of other manifestations of climate change such as rain-on-snow events. Moreover, the ptarmigan population may compensate for current harvest levels. Based on the anticipatory predictions, the near-term forecasting ability of the models improved nonlinearly with the length of the time series, but yielded good forecasts even based on a short time series. The inclusion of ecological predictors improved forecasts of sharp changes in next-year population density, demonstrating the value of ecosystem-based monitoring. Overall, our study illustrates the power of integrating near-term forecasting in monitoring systems to aid understanding and management of wildlife populations exposed to rapid climate change. We provide recommendations for how to improve this approach.

End-user involvement to improve predictions and management of populations with complex dynamics and multiple drivers

Sustainable management of wildlife populations can be aided by building models that both identify current drivers of natural dynamics and provide near-term predictions of future states. We employed a Strategic Foresight Protocol (SFP) involving stakeholders to decide the purpose and structure of a dynamic state-space model for the population dynamics of the Willow Ptarmigan, a popular game species in Norway. Based on local knowledge of stakeholders, it was decided that the model should include food web interactions and climatic drivers to provide explanatory predictions. Modeling confirmed observations from stakeholders that climate change impacts Ptarmigan populations negatively through intensified outbreaks of insect defoliators and later onset of winter. Stakeholders also decided that the model should provide anticipatory predictions. The ability to forecast population density ahead of the harvest season was valued by the stakeholders as it provides the management extra time to consider appropriate harvest regulations and communicate with hunters prior to the hunting season. Overall, exploring potential drivers and predicting short-term future states, facilitate collaborative learning and refined data collection, monitoring designs, and management priorities. Our experience from adapting a SFP to a management target with inherently complex dynamics and drivers of environmental change, is that an open, flexible, and iterative process, rather than a rigid step-wise protocol, facilitates rapid learning, trust, and legitimacy.

Arctic terrestrial biodiversity status and trends: A synopsis of science supporting the CBMP State of Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Report

This review provides a synopsis of the main findings of individual papers in the special issue Terrestrial Biodiversity in a Rapidly Changing Arctic. The special issue was developed to inform the State of the Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Report developed by the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program (CBMP) of the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), Arctic Council working group. Salient points about the status and trends of Arctic biodiversity and biodiversity monitoring are organized by taxonomic groups: (1) vegetation, (2) invertebrates, (3) mammals, and (4) birds. This is followed by a discussion about commonalities across the collection of papers, for example, that heterogeneity was a predominant pattern of change particularly when assessing global trends for Arctic terrestrial biodiversity. Finally, the need for a comprehensive, integrated, ecosystem-based monitoring program, coupled with targeted research projects deciphering causal patterns, is discussed.

Status and trends of tundra birds across the circumpolar Arctic

Tundra-breeding birds face diverse conservation challenges, from accelerated rates of Arctic climate change to threats associated with highly migratory life histories. Here we summarise the status and trends of Arctic terrestrial birds (88 species, 228 subspecies or distinct flyway populations) across guilds/regions, derived from published sources, raw data or, in rare cases, expert opinion. We report long-term trends in vital rates (survival, reproduction) for the handful of species and regions for which these are available. Over half of all circumpolar Arctic wader taxa are declining (51% of 91 taxa with known trends) and almost half of all waterfowl are increasing (49% of 61 taxa); these opposing trends have fostered a shift in community composition in some locations. Declines were least prevalent in the African-Eurasian Flyway (29%), but similarly prevalent in the remaining three global flyways (44-54%). Widespread, and in some cases accelerating, declines underscore the urgent conservation needs faced by many Arctic terrestrial bird species.

Status and trends of circumpolar peregrine falcon and gyrfalcon populations

The peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) and the gyrfalcon (Falco rusticolus) are top avian predators of Arctic ecosystems. Although existing monitoring efforts are well established for both species, collaboration of activities among Arctic scientists actively involved in research of large falcons in the Nearctic and Palearctic has been poorly coordinated. Here we provide the first overview of Arctic falcon monitoring sites, present trends for long-term occupancy and productivity, and summarize information describing abundance, distribution, phenology, and health of the two species. We summarize data for 24 falcon monitoring sites across the Arctic, and identify gaps in coverage for eastern Russia, the Arctic Archipelago of Canada, and East Greenland. Our results indicate that peregrine falcon and gyrfalcon populations are generally stable, and assuming that these patterns hold beyond the temporal and spatial extents of the monitoring sites, it is reasonable to suggest that breeding populations at broader scales are similarly stable. We have highlighted several challenges that preclude direct comparisons of Focal Ecosystem Components (FEC) attributes among monitoring sites, and we acknowledge that methodological problems cannot be corrected retrospectively, but could be accounted for in future monitoring. Despite these drawbacks, ample opportunity exists to establish a coordinated monitoring program for Arctic-nesting raptor species that supports CBMP goals.

Dietary variation in Icelandic arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) over a period of 30 years assessed through stable isotopes

Identifying resources driving long-term trends in predators is important to understand ecosystem changes and to manage populations in the context of conservation or control. The arctic fox population in Iceland has increased steadily over a period of 30 years, an increase that has been attributed to an overall increase in food abundance. We hypothesized that increasing populations of geese or seabirds were driving this growth. We analyzed stable isotopes in a long-term series of collagen samples to determine the role of these different resources. The isotopic signatures of arctic foxes differed consistently between coastal and inland habitats. While δ¹⁵N displayed a non-linear change over time with a slight increase in the first part of the period followed by a decline in both habitats, δ¹³C was stable. Stable isotope mixing models suggested that marine resources and rock ptarmigan were the most important dietary sources, with marine resources dominating in coastal habitats and rock ptarmigan being more important inland. Our results suggest that seabirds may have been driving the arctic fox population increase. The rapidly increasing populations of breeding geese seem to have played a minor role in arctic fox population growth, as rock ptarmigan was the most important terrestrial resource despite a considerable decrease in their abundance during recent decades. This study shows that a long-term population trend in a generalist predator may have occurred without a pronounced change in main dietary resources, despite ongoing structural changes in the food web, where one species of herbivorous birds increased and another decreased.