Reporting errors in siblings' survival histories and their impact on adult mortality estimates: results from a record linkage study in Senegal

Examining sex differences in the completeness of Peruvian CRVS data and adult mortality estimates

The production, compilation, and publication of death registration records is complex and usually involves many institutions. Assessing available data and the evolution of the completeness of the data compiled based on demographic techniques and other available data sources is of great importance for countries and for having timely and disaggregated mortality estimates. In this paper, we assess whether it is reasonable, based on the available data, to assume that there is a sex difference in the completeness of male and female death records in Peru in the last 30 years. In addition, we assess how the gap may have evolved with time by applying two-census death distribution methods on health-related registries and analyzing the information from the Demographic and Health Surveys and civil registries. Our findings suggest that there is no significant sex difference in the completeness of male and female health-related registries and, consequently, the sex gap currently observed in adult mortality estimates might be overestimated.

An Assessment of Third-Party Reporting of Close Ties to Measure Sensitive Behaviors: The Confidante Method to Measure Abortion Incidence in Ethiopia and Uganda

Indirect estimation techniques are important tools for measuring sensitive and stigmatized behaviors. This includes third‐party reporting methods, which have become increasingly common in the field of abortion measurement, where direct survey approaches notoriously lead to underreporting. This paper provides the first in‐depth assessment of one of the most widely used of these techniques in the field of abortion measurement: the confidante method. We outline six key assumptions behind the confidante method and describe how violations of these assumptions can bias resulting estimates. Using data from modules added to the performance monitoring for action surveys in Uganda and Ethiopia in 2018, we compute one‐year abortion incidence estimates using the confidante method. We also perform a validation check, using the method to estimate intrauterine device /implant use. Our results revealed implementation problems in both settings. Several of the method's foundational assumptions were violated, and efforts to adjust for these violations either failed or only partially addressed the resulting bias. Our validation check also failed, resulting in a gross overestimate of intrauterine device/implant use. These results have implications more broadly for the potential biases that can be introduced in using third‐party reporting of close ties to measure other sensitive or stigmatized behaviors.

Biases in Survey Estimates of Neonatal Mortality: Results From a Validation Study in Urban Areas of Guinea-Bissau

Neonatal deaths (occurring within 28 days of birth) account for close to one-half of all deaths among children under age 5 worldwide. In most low- and middle-income countries, data on neonatal deaths come primarily from household surveys. We conducted a validation study of survey data on neonatal mortality in Guinea-Bissau (West Africa). We used records from an urban health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) that monitors child survival prospectively as our reference data set. We selected a stratified sample of 599 women aged 15-49 among residents of the HDSS and collected the birth histories of 422 participants. We cross-tabulated survey and HDSS data. We used a mathematical model to investigate biases in survey estimates of neonatal mortality. Reporting errors in survey data might lead to estimates of the neonatal mortality rate that are too high, which may limit our ability to track progress toward global health objectives.

Estimating Adult Death Rates From Sibling Histories: A Network Approach

Hundreds of millions of people live in countries that do not have complete death registration systems, meaning that most deaths are not recorded and that critical quantities, such as life expectancy, cannot be directly measured. The sibling survival method is a leading approach to estimating adult mortality in the absence of death registration. The idea is to ask survey respondents to enumerate their siblings and to report about their survival status. In many countries and periods, sibling survival data are the only nationally representative source of information about adult mortality. Although a vast amount of sibling survival data has been collected, important methodological questions about the method remain unresolved. To help make progress on this issue, we propose reframing the sibling survival method as a network sampling problem. This approach enables a formal derivation of statistical estimators for sibling survival data. Our derivation clarifies the precise conditions that sibling history estimates rely on, leads to internal consistency checks that can help assess data and reporting quality, and reveals important quantities that could potentially be measured to relax assumptions in the future. We introduce the R package siblingsurvival, which implements the methods we describe.

Methods used to measure maternal mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1980 to 2020: A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Gobally, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the largest maternal mortality burden, but the region lacks accurate data.

OBJECTIVE

To review methods historically used to measure maternal mortality in SSA to inform future study methods.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched databases: PubMed, Medline, WorldCat and CINHAL, using keywords "maternal mortality," "pregnancy-related death," "reproductive age mortality," "ratio," "rate," and "risk," using Boolean operators "OR" and "AND" to combine the search terms.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We searched for empirical and analytical studies that: (1) measured maternal mortality levels, (2) were in SSA, (3) reported original results, and (4) were not duplicate studies. We included studies published in English since 1980.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We screened the studies using titles and abstracts, reading the full text of selected studies. We analyzed the estimates and strengths, and limitations of the methods.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 96 studies that used nine methods: demographic surveillance (n = 4), health record reviews (n = 18), confidential enquiries and maternal death surveillance and response (n = 7), prospective cohort (n = 9), reproductive age mortality survey (RAMOS) (n = 6), sisterhood method (n = 35), mixed methods (n = 4), and mathematical modeling (n = 13).

CONCLUSION

Sisterhood method studies and RAMOS studies that combined institutional records and community data produced maternal mortality ratios more comparable with WHO estimates.

Errors in reported ages and dates in surveys of adult mortality: A record linkage study in Niakhar (Senegal)

Sibling survival histories are a major source of adult mortality estimates in countries with incomplete death registration. We evaluate age and date reporting errors in sibling histories collected during a validation study in the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Senegal). Participants were randomly assigned to either the Demographic and Health Survey questionnaire or a questionnaire incorporating an event history calendar, recall cues, and increased probing strategies. We linked 60-62 per cent of survey reports of siblings to the reference database using manual and probabilistic approaches. Both questionnaires showed high sensitivity (>96 per cent) and specificity (>97 per cent) in recording siblings' vital status. Respondents underestimated the age of living siblings, and age at and time since death of deceased siblings. These reporting errors introduced downward biases in mortality estimates. The revised questionnaire improved reporting of age of living siblings but not of age at or timing of deaths.

Sibling mortality burden in low-income countries: A descriptive analysis of sibling death in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean

In high-income countries, emerging research suggests sibling bereavement can have significant health and life course consequences for young people. Yet, we know far less about its burden in lower-income countries. Due to higher fertility and mortality in lower-income countries, the level, timing, intensity, and circumstances surrounding sibling mortality are likely to follow patterns distinct from those in higher-income settings. Thus, in this study, we offer a descriptive overview of sibling death in 43 countries across sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Specifically, we analyze Demographic and Health Survey data from nationally representative samples of 352,930 15- to 34-year-old women, born between 1985 and 2003, to document experiences of sibling death before age 25. On average, roughly one-third of individuals report a deceased sibling in these countries; estimates reach 40-50% of respondents in multiple African countries, particularly those that have experienced conflict and war. Although some sibling deaths occurred before the focal respondent was born, most bereaved individuals recalled a death during their lifetime-often in late childhood/early adolescence. High proportions of bereaved respondents report multiple sibling deaths, highlighting the clustering of deaths within families. Even so, bereaved individuals tend to come from large families and thus frequently have a comparable number of surviving siblings as people who never experienced a sibling die. Together, the results offer a window into global inequality in childhood experiences, and they attest to the need for research that explores the implications of sibling mortality for young people in world regions where the experience is concentrated.

Effects of a sister's death in childbirth on reproductive behaviors: Difference-in-difference analyses using sisterhood mortality data from Indonesia

RATIONALE

Risk of maternal mortality increases rapidly during the intrapartum period making skilled care at delivery an effective intervention to reduce the risk of maternal death. Demand generation for skilled care typically focuses on institutional channels; however, much less attention has been paid to whether what women may learn through their social networks can potentially influence their choice of delivery care.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to analyze whether a sister's death in childbirth has the potential to improve delivery care choices for women who experience this event.

METHODS

This study uses retrospective reports of sister deaths - either in childbirth or from some other cause - reported in the sisterhood moratlity module from five waves of the Indonesia Demographic and Health Surveys (IDHS) spanning 1989 to 2012. A cross-sectional, difference-in-difference strategy compares delivery care behavior of women before and after losing a sister in childbirth to women before and after losing a sister of reproductive age from some other cause in an intent-to-treat framework.

RESULTS

Women are less likely to give birth at home after losing a sister in childbirth relative to women who lose a sister from some other cause. Losing a sister in childbirth may trigger behaviors that help usher women of lower socioeconomic status into formal delivery care.

CONCLUSION

This study extends the literature on health behavior change through social networks to improve delivery care. Public health campaigns should consider social networks when designing messages around maternal mortality in order to help women at risk of maternal mortality make decisions that reduce their risk of and ultimately avoid maternal death.

Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa using 2001-2009 census data: does estimation method matter?

Adult mortality is an important development and public health issue that continues to attract the attention of demographers and public health researchers. Controversies exist about the accurate level of adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), due to different data sources and errors in data collection. To address this shortcoming, methods have been developed to accurately estimate levels of adult mortality. Using three different methods (orphanhood, widowhood, and siblinghood) of indirect estimation and the direct siblinghood method of adult mortality, we examined the levels of adult mortality in 10 countries in SSA using 2001–2009 census and survey data. Results from the different methods vary. Estimates from the orphanhood data show that adult mortality rates for males are in decline in South Africa and West African countries, whilst there is an increase in adult mortality in the East African countries, for the period examined. The widowhood estimates were the lowest and reveal a marked increase in female adult mortality rates compared to male. A notable difference was observed in adult mortality estimates derived from the direct and indirect siblinghood methods. The method of estimation, therefore, matters in establishing the level of adult mortality in SSA.

The Network Survival Method for Estimating Adult Mortality: Evidence From a Survey Experiment in Rwanda

Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and well-being. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often problematic. In this article, we introduce the network survival method, a new approach for estimating adult death rates. We derive the precise conditions under which it produces consistent and unbiased estimates. Further, we develop an analytical framework for sensitivity analysis. To assess the performance of the network survival method in a realistic setting, we conducted a nationally representative survey experiment in Rwanda (n = 4,669). Network survival estimates were similar to estimates from other methods, even though the network survival estimates were made with substantially smaller samples and are based entirely on data from Rwanda, with no need for model life tables or pooling of data from other countries. Our analytic results demonstrate that the network survival method has attractive properties, and our empirical results show that this method can be used in countries where reliable estimates of adult death rates are sorely needed.

Using community-based reporting of vital events to monitor child mortality: Lessons from rural Ghana

Background

Reducing neonatal and child mortality is a key component of the health-related sustainable development goal (SDG), but most low and middle income countries lack data to monitor child mortality on an annual basis. We tested a mortality monitoring system based on the continuous recording of pregnancies, births and deaths by trained community-based volunteers (CBV).

Methods and findings

This project was implemented in 96 clusters located in three districts of the Northern Region of Ghana. Community-based volunteers (CBVs) were selected from these clusters and were trained in recording all pregnancies, births, and deaths among children under 5 in their catchment areas. Data collection lasted from January 2012 through September 2013. All CBVs transmitted tallies of recorded births and deaths to the Ghana Birth and deaths registry each month, except in one of the study districts (approximately 80% reporting). Some events were reported only several months after they had occurred. We assessed the completeness and accuracy of CBV data by comparing them to retrospective full pregnancy histories (FPH) collected during a census of the same clusters conducted in October-December 2013. We conducted all analyses separately by district, as well as for the combined sample of all districts. During the 21-month implementation period, the CBVs reported a total of 2,819 births and 137 under-five deaths. Among the latter, there were 84 infant deaths (55 neonatal deaths and 29 post-neonatal deaths). Comparison of the CBV data with FPH data suggested that CBVs significantly under-estimated child mortality: the estimated under-5 mortality rate according to CBV data was only 2/3 of the rate estimated from FPH data (95% Confidence Interval for the ratio of the two rates = 51.7 to 81.4). The discrepancies between the CBV and FPH estimates of infant and neonatal mortality were more limited, but varied significantly across districts.

Conclusions

In northern Ghana, a community-based data collection systems relying on volunteers did not yield accurate estimates of child mortality rates. Additional implementation research is needed to improve the timeliness, completeness and accuracy of such systems. Enhancing pregnancy monitoring, in particular, may be an essential step to improve the measurement of neonatal mortality.

Timing of maternal death: Levels, trends, and ecological correlates using sibling data from 34 sub-Saharan African countries

Millennium Development Goal 5 has not been universally achieved, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding whether maternal deaths occur during pregnancy, childbirth, or puerperium is important to effectively plan maternal health programs and allocate resources. Our main research objectives are to (1) describe the proportions and rates of mortality for the antepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum periods; (2) document how these trends vary by sub-region; and (3) investigate ecological correlations between these rates and maternal care interventions. We used data from the Demographic and Health Survey program, which comprises 84 surveys from 34 sub-Saharan African countries conducted between 1990 and 2014. We calculated age-standardized maternal mortality rates and time-specific maternal mortality rates and proportions, and we assessed correlations with maternal care coverage. We found high levels of maternal mortality in all three periods. Time-specific maternal mortality rates varied by country and region, with some showing an orderly decline in all three periods and others exhibiting alarming increases in antepartum and postpartum mortality. Ecological analysis showed that antenatal care coverage was significantly associated with low antepartum mortality, whereas the presence of a skilled attendant at childbirth was significantly associated with low postpartum mortality. In sub-Saharan Africa, maternal deaths occur at high rates in all three risk periods, and vary substantially by country and region. The provision of maternal care is a predictor of time-specific maternal mortality. These results confirm the need for country-specific interventions during the continuum of care to achieve the global commitment to eliminating preventable maternal mortality.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Age patterns and sex ratios of adult mortality in countries with high HIV prevalence

OBJECTIVE

To compare the 2016 United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) modelled estimates of adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa to empirical estimates.

DESIGN

Age-specific mortality rates were obtained from nationally representative sibling survival data, recent household deaths and vital registration, and directly compared with UNAIDS estimates. Orphanhood prevalence derived from UNAIDS mortality estimates was compared with survey and census reports on the survival of children's parents.

METHODS

Age-specific mortality rates for adults aged 15-59 years were calculated from Demographic and Health Surveys and deaths reported in censuses or vital registration, adjusted for underreporting, whenever possible. Proportions of orphans were extracted from censuses and surveys for children aged 5-9 years.

RESULTS

UNAIDS estimates were significantly higher than sibling mortality estimates, except among men in countries with very high HIV prevalence. There was a better agreement between rates based on household deaths or vital registration and model outputs. Sex ratios (M/F) of adult mortality were lower in UNAIDS estimates. The modelled orphan prevalence was significantly higher than in surveys and censuses, again with the exception of paternal orphans in countries with very high HIV prevalence. Ratios of paternal-to-maternal orphans were lower in the UNAIDS model than surveys and censuses. Among women, increases in mortality due to AIDS were more concentrated in the age range 25-50 years in model outputs, as compared with empirical estimates.

CONCLUSION

Discrepancies in levels, sex ratios and age patterns of adult mortality between empirical and UNAIDS estimates call for additional data quality assessments and improvements in estimation methods.

A Novel Method for Verifying War Mortality while Estimating Iraqi Deaths for the Iran-Iraq War through Operation Desert Storm (1980-1993)

Objectives

We estimated war-related Iraqi mortality for the period 1980 through 1993.

Method

To test our hypothesis that deaths reported by siblings (even dating back several decades) would correspond with war events, we compared sibling mortality reports with the frequency of independent news reports about violent historic events. We used data from a survey of 4,287 adults in 2000 Iraqi households conducted in 2011. Interviewees reported on the status of their 24,759 siblings. Death rates were applied to population estimates, 1980 to 1993. News report data came from the ProQuest New York Times database.

Results

About half of sibling-reported deaths across the study period were attributed to direct war-related injuries. The Iran-Iraq war led to nearly 200,000 adult deaths, and the 1990–1991 First Gulf War generated another approximately 40,000 deaths. Deaths during peace intervals before and after each war were significantly lower. We found a relationship between total sibling-reported deaths and the tally of war events across the period, p = 0.02.

Conclusions

We report a novel method to verify the reliability of epidemiological (household survey) estimates of direct war-related injury mortality dating back several decades.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Death and Desirability: Retrospective Reporting of Unintended Pregnancy After a Child's Death

Social scientists have long debated how to best measure pregnancy intentions. The standard measure relies on mothers' retrospective reports of their intentions at the time of conception. Because women have already given birth at the time of this report, the resulting children's health-including their vital status-may influence their mothers' responses. We hypothesize that women are less likely to report that deceased children were from unintended pregnancies, which may explain why some cross-sectional studies have shown that children from unintended pregnancies have higher survival, despite the fact that longitudinal studies have shown the opposite is true. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 31 sub-Saharan African countries, we confirm that mothers are less likely to report that deceased children resulted from unintended pregnancies compared with surviving children. However, the opposite is true for unhealthy children: mothers more commonly report that unhealthy children were from unintended pregnancies compared with healthier children. The results suggest that mothers (1) revise their recall of intentions after the traumatic experience of child death and/or (2) alter their reports in the face-to-face interview. The study challenges the reliability of retrospective reports of pregnancy intentions in high-mortality settings and thus also our current knowledge of the levels and consequences of unintended pregnancies in these contexts.

Health & demographic surveillance system profile: Bandafassi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Bandafassi HDSS), Senegal

The Bandafassi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Bandafassi HDSS) is located in south-eastern Senegal, near the borders with Mali and Guinea. The area is 700 km from the national capital, Dakar. The population under surveillance is rural and in 2012 comprised 13 378 inhabitants living in 42 villages. Established in 1970, originally for genetic studies, and initially covering only villages inhabited by one subgroup of the population of the area (the Mandinka), the project was transformed a few years later into a HDSS and then extended to the two other subgroups living in the area: Fula villages in 1975, and Bedik villages in 1980. Data have been collected through annual rounds since the project first began. On each visit, investigators review the composition of all the households, checking the lists of people who were present in each household the previous year and gathering information about births, marriages, migrations and deaths (including their causes) since then. One specific feature of the Bandafassi HDSS is the availability of genealogies.

Improving the quality of adult mortality data collected in demographic surveys: validation study of a new siblings' survival questionnaire in Niakhar, Senegal

BACKGROUND

In countries with limited vital registration, adult mortality is frequently estimated using siblings' survival histories (SSHs) collected during Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). These data are affected by reporting errors. We developed a new SSH questionnaire, the siblings' survival calendar (SSC). It incorporates supplementary interviewing techniques to limit omissions of siblings and uses an event history calendar to improve reports of dates and ages. We hypothesized that the SSC would improve the quality of adult mortality data.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a retrospective validation study among the population of the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Senegal. We randomly assigned men and women aged 15-59 y to an interview with either the DHS questionnaire or the SSC. We compared SSHs collected in each group to prospective data on adult mortality collected in Niakhar. The SSC reduced respondents' tendency to round reports of dates and ages to the nearest multiple of five or ten ("heaping"). The SSC also had higher sensitivity in recording adult female deaths: among respondents whose sister(s) had died at an adult age in the past 15 y, 89.6% reported an adult female death during SSC interviews versus 75.6% in DHS interviews (p = 0.027). The specificity of the SSC was similar to that of the DHS questionnaire, i.e., it did not increase the number of false reports of deaths. However, the SSC did not improve the reporting of adult deaths among the brothers of respondents. Study limitations include sample selectivity, limited external validity, and multiple testing.

CONCLUSIONS

The SSC has the potential to collect more accurate SSHs than the questionnaire used in DHS. Further research is needed to assess the effects of the SSC on estimates of adult mortality rates. Additional validation studies should be conducted in different social and epidemiological settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN06849961