The Economic Foundations of Cohabiting Couples' Union Transitions

Are Female-Breadwinner Couples Always Less Stable? Evidence from French Administrative Data

The paper studies the association between partners' relative incomes and union dissolution among couples in France. With the increase in dual-earner couples and women's educational level, couples in which women earn more than their partners are structurally becoming more widespread. Because female breadwinning challenges long-lived social norms regarding traditional gender roles, scholars have theorized a higher risk of union dissolution among female-breadwinner couples compared to couples in other income arrangements. We estimate the risk of union dissolution using regression analyses on unique longitudinal data from French administrative sources containing an unconventionally high number of couples (4% of the population) and separation events (more than 100,000), as well as precise and reliable income measurement. Female-breadwinner couples face a higher risk of union dissolution compared to other couple types. This result is robust to various definitions of female breadwinning and controls for partners' employment status. Contrary to recent research on other countries, we find no sign of a fading effect among younger cohorts. However, among younger, cohabiting couples and couples in registered partnerships the risk of union dissolution is lowest when both partners are employed and provide a similar share of the total couple's income, suggesting the emergence of a new profile of stable couples. The female-breadwinner penalty in union dissolution is in place; also in France, it holds among married and cohabiting couples and registered partnerships, across all birth cohorts and levels of household income.

Cohabiting couple's economic organization and marriage patterns across social classes

Objective

Empirically examine whether different economic theories of marriage formation predict the transition from cohabitation to marriage differently across social classes.

Background

Less-educated individuals marry their cohabiting partners at lower rates than their college-educated peers, but the reasons for this are unknown. Few studies have examined the intersection of social class and couple-level economic resources to understand if the potentially gendered economic determinants of marriage vary according to a couple's social location.

Method

Couple-month data come from the 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation, including 1,879 cohabiting couples, 478 of whom transition to marriage. Logistic regression is used to test whether the marriage bar, gender specialization, gendered institutions, or gender revolution framework best predicts the likelihood of marrying.

Results

Joint indicators of the marriage bar and the gendered economic organization of couples both predict marriage, but the specific gendered organization varies by the couple's level of education. Among couples where neither partner has a college degree, male-breadwinning couples are most likely to marry; dual-earning couples are most likely to marry among more-educated couples.

Conclusion

Although college-educated couples seem to have shifted to a more egalitarian model of marriage, as predicted by the gender revolution framework, the marriages of the less-educated are still characterized by traditional arrangements, in line with the idea that marriage is a gendered institution. By showing that different theories predict marriage depending on the couple's social position, these findings provide groundwork to explore why the less educated are increasingly less likely to marry their cohabiting partners.

Sleep hours and quality before and after baby: Inequalities by gender and partnership

While prior studies have examined sleep across the lifecourse, few studies have investigated sleep around the birth of a child, one of the most important events to cause sleep deprivation. This study investigates changes in sleep hours and quality, paying attention to differences by gender and partnership status. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study, we follow approximately 1,000 participants as they transition into parenthood in a three-year window. We use OLS and logistic regression to analyze changes in sleep hours and sleep quality. Results suggest that women's sleep is reduced by an average of 0.7 hours (42 min) on becoming a mother. Whilst before parenthood women sleep more than men, after childbirth women and men sleep similar amounts. Cohabiting men experience a greater reduction in sleep by around 0.5 hours (30 min) than married men, to the level similar to women, suggesting that new cohabiting fathers may experience more sleep disturbances.

So happy together … Examining the association between relationship happiness, socio-economic status, and family transitions in the UK

The increases in cohabitation and in childbearing within cohabitation raise questions about who marries. Most studies have found that childbearing within cohabitation is associated with disadvantage; here, we examine the role of relationship happiness and whether it helps to explain this association. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2009-17), our competing risk hazard models follow respondents as they transition: (1) from cohabitation into marriage or childbearing; and (2) from marriage or cohabitation into childbearing. We find that marriage risks are highest among individuals who are happiest with their relationship. On average, the association between relationship quality and childbearing operates through marriage: the happiest individuals marry, and those who marry have children. While higher socio-economic status is weakly associated with marriage, conception, and separation, the associations do not differ by relationship happiness. The findings indicate that overall, relationship happiness appears to be most salient for transitions into marriage.

Pooling of Wealth in Marriage: The Role of Premarital Cohabitation

Previous studies documented the existence of a 'cohabitation-marriage gap' in resource pooling among opposite-sex partners, with cohabiters being more likely to separate income and wealth than married individuals. Surprisingly, despite many non-marital cohabitations transform into marriages, we know little about income and wealth pooling of 'spousal cohabiters', i.e. spouses who transition to marriage after experiencing a period of non-marital cohabitation. The comparison between 'spousal cohabiters' and directly married spouses is particularly interesting because it offers a litmus test of theories of marriage in relation to how and why economic resources are differently distributed within married vs. cohabiting couples. This paper compares directly married couples and 'spousal cohabiters' in Italy, focusing on one aspect of resource pooling: the marital property regime, i.e. the choice made at the time of marriage between joint or separate ownership of wealth accumulated during marriage. Competing hypotheses are developed on the basis of the arguments that marriage yields legal protection, that selection mechanisms drive both the choice of community vs. separation of property and direct marriage vs. premarital cohabitation, and that, by inertia, 'spousal cohabiters' continue to separate resources upon transition to marriage. Results based on the 2016 Italian 'Family and social subjects' survey show that 'spousal cohabiters' are significantly more likely to choose separation of property compared to directly married spouses. Such differences, however, are drastically reduced once relevant confounders are controlled for, hence suggesting that existing differences between directly married and previously cohabiting couples and, more generally, differences between married and cohabiting couples are driven, above all, by selection mechanisms.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09627-2.

Cohabitation and Marriage Among Same-Sex Couples in the 2019 ACS and CPS: A Research Note

Since the 2015 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that marriages of same-sex couples are legal in all states in the union, federal surveys have adapted to the shifting legal climate and included new measures that more directly identify same-sex and different-sex cohabiting and married couples. In this research note comparing the largest and most recent federal surveys-the 2019 American Community Survey and Current Population Survey-we find consistent levels of cohabitation and marriage across surveys. While the vast majority (90%) of different-sex couples were married, we report a more even split in cohabitation and marriage among same-sex couples. Our evaluation of sociodemographic characteristics of married and cohabiting couples indicates that differences were less prominent among same-sex couples than among different-sex couples, suggesting weaker sociodemographic selection into marriage among the former. However, factors affecting same-sex and different-sex couples' decisions to live together and marry may differ because of legal and social climates that still present unique obstacles for same-sex couples. Researchers need to acknowledge these differences in assessments of the implications of marriage for health and well-being.

Economic Precariousness and the Transition to Parenthood: A Dynamic and Multidimensional Approach

Economic precariousness has taken on a central role in explanations of the postponement of childbearing in developed societies. However, most studies conceptualize and operationalize precariousness as being static and one-dimensional, which provides only a partial perspective on the links between precariousness and fertility. In this paper, we study precariousness as a dynamic and multidimensional concept, distinguishing between past and current precariousness as well as between precariousness relating to income and to employment. Analyses are based on Dutch full-population register data. We select all inhabitants of the Netherlands who left education in 2006 and follow them until 2018. Event history analyses show that current and past income and employment precariousness all have independent negative effects on the first birth rate for men. Current and past employment precariousness and past income precariousness also reduce the first birth rate for women, but current income precariousness increases women’s probability of first conception. When precariousness is both persistent and multidimensional, it is associated with a threefold decrease in the monthly probability of conceiving a first child for men and almost a halving of the probability for women. Our analyses show the need for going beyond static and one-dimensional analyses in order to understand how economic precariousness may affect fertility behaviour.

Cohabitation dissolution and psychological distress among young adults: The role of parenthood and gender

Cohabitation has become a normative experience for American young adults and a common setting for childbearing in recent decades. However, the high dissolution rate of cohabitation exposes young adults to the potential stress of intimate relationship dissolution and single parenthood during early adulthood. Drawing on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, we apply growth curve models to analyze how cohabitation dissolution associates with trajectories of depressive symptoms and binge drinking behaviors for young adults (aged 17 to 35). We investigate how the presence of children moderates this association for men and women. We find that cohabitation dissolution is associated with increased depressive symptoms for both men and women. However, cohabitation dissolution is only positively associated with binge drinking behaviors for men, and a significant gender difference is observed. The presence of children when cohabitation dissolves strengthens the positive association between cohabitation dissolution and depressive symptoms among women, and this positive moderation fades away as young women age. These findings suggest that gender differences in the association of cohabitation dissolution with psychological distress are contingent on the types of psychological distress under consideration and also reveal that cohabitation dissolution intertwined with non-marital parenthood is harmful to mental health, especially for young women.

What Tears Couples Apart: A Machine Learning Analysis of Union Dissolution in Germany

This study contributes to the literature on union dissolution by adopting a machine learning (ML) approach, specifically Random Survival Forests (RSF). We used RSF to analyze data on 2,038 married or cohabiting couples who participated in the German Socio-Economic Panel Survey, and found that RSF had considerably better predictive accuracy than conventional regression models. The man's and the woman's life satisfaction and the woman's percentage of housework were the most important predictors of union dissolution; several other variables (e.g., woman's working hours, being married) also showed substantial predictive power. RSF was able to detect complex patterns of association, and some predictors examined in previous studies showed marginal or null predictive power. Finally, while we found that some personality traits were strongly predictive of union dissolution, no interactions between those traits were evident, possibly reflecting assortative mating by personality traits. From a methodological point of view, the study demonstrates the potential benefits of ML techniques for the analysis of union dissolution and for demographic research in general. Key features of ML include the ability to handle a large number of predictors, the automatic detection of nonlinearities and nonadditivities between predictors and the outcome, generally superior predictive accuracy, and robustness against multicollinearity.

Rising nonmarital first childbearing among college-educated women: Evidence from three national studies

Levels of nonmarital first childbearing are assessed using recent administrations of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 Cohort; the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health; and the National Survey of Family Growth. Results confirm that the higher a woman's educational attainment, the less likely she is to be unmarried at the time of her first birth. A comparison over time shows increases in nonmarital first childbearing at every educational level, with the largest percentage increase occurring among women with college degrees at the BA or BS level or higher. This article projects that 18 to 27% of college-educated women now in their thirties who have a first birth will be unmarried at the time. In addition, among all women who are unmarried at first birth, women with college degrees are more likely to be married at the time of their second birth, and, in a majority of cases, the other parent of the two children was the same person. A growing proportion of well-educated women, and their partners, may therefore be pursuing a family formation strategy that proceeds directly to a first birth, and then proceeds, at a later point, to marriage, followed by a second birth. Possible reasons for the increase in nonmarital first births among the college-educated include the stagnation of the college wage premium; the rise in student debt; decreasing selectivity; and the growing acceptability of childbearing within cohabiting unions, which have become a common setting for nonmarital childbearing, and among single parents.

Racial Pairings and Fertility: Do Interracial Couples Have Fewer Children?

OBJECTIVE

Our overall goal is largely descriptive-to compare recent fertility patterns between racially endogamous and exogamous couples in the United States. Evidence of lower fertility among exogamous or interracial couples arguably provides indirect evidence of social distance and cultural and economic integration.

BACKGROUND

The growth of interracial marriage and cohabitation has fueled the rise in biracial or mixed-race children. Fertility rates are uneven among racial and ethnic groups, seemingly rooted in stigma and cultural differences (e.g., fertility norms). Whether fertility is different among interracial couples is unclear: Fertility rates that largely conform to the population of racially endogamous White couples provide evidence of social integration whereas differential fertility may reveal gender dynamics in fertility decision-making, including power relationships that depend on the race of male and female partners.

METHOD

We pool data from the 2008 to 2017 American Community Survey to compare past-year fertility patterns among endogamously and interracially married and cohabiting couples.

RESULTS

Fertility is generally lower among racially exogamous than endogamous unions, especially among Asian American-White couples. Fertility among American Indian-White couples is much closer to patterns of White couples than of American Indian couples. Fertility among other interracial couples nevertheless varies by the race of male partners. That is, fertility of the Black male/White female and the Hispanic male/White female couples is similar to patterns found among endogamous Black and Hispanic couples, respectively. The White male/Black female and the White male/Hispanic female couples follow the fertility patterns of White couples.

CONCLUSION

In general, the fertility levels of interracial couples are intermediate between those of endogamous White couples and their endogamous Black, Hispanic, or American Indian counterparts, but vary significantly by the race-gender mix of partners.

Marriage and Masculinity: Male-Breadwinner Culture, Unemployment, and Separation Risk in 29 Countries

Scholars argue that gender culture, understood as a set of beliefs, norms, and social expectations defining masculinities and femininities, plays an important role in shaping when romantic relationships end. However, the relevance of gender culture is often underappreciated, in part because its empirical identification remains elusive. This study leverages cross-country variation in gender norms to test the hypothesis that gender culture conditions which heterosexual romantic relationships end and when. We analyze the extent to which male-breadwinning norms determine the association between men's unemployment and couple separation. Using harmonized household panel data for married and cohabiting heterosexual couples in 29 countries from 2004 to 2014, our results provide robust evidence that male-breadwinner norms are a key driver of the association between men's unemployment and the risk of separation. The magnitude of this mechanism is sizeable; an increase of one standard deviation in male-breadwinner norms increases the odds of separation associated with men's unemployment by 32 percent. Analyses also show that the importance of male-breadwinner norms is strongest among couples for whom the male-breadwinner identity is most salient, namely married couples. By directly measuring and leveraging variation in the key explanatory of interest, gender culture, our study offers novel and robust evidence reinforcing the importance of gender norms to understand when romantic relationships end.

The Demography of Families: A Review of Patterns and Change

The authors review demographic trends and research on families in the United States, with a special focus on the past decade. They consider the following several topics: (a) marriage and remarriage, (b) divorce, (c) cohabitation, (d) fertility, (e) same-gender unions, (f) immigrant families, and (g) children's living arrangements. Throughout, the authors review both overall trends and patterns as well as those by social class and race-ethnicity. The authors discuss major strands of recent research, emphasizing emerging themes and promising directions. They close with a summary of central patterns and trends and conclude that recent trends are not as uniform as they tended to be in earlier decades, making the description of family change increasingly complex.

Job Quality and the Educational Gradient in Entry Into Marriage and Cohabitation

Men's and women's economic resources are important determinants of marriage timing. Prior demographic and sociological literature has often measured resources in narrow terms, considering employment and earnings and not more fine-grained measures of job quality. Yet, scholarship on work and inequality focuses squarely on declining job quality and rising precarity in employment and suggests that this transformation may matter for the life course. Addressing the disconnect between these two important areas of research, this study analyzes data on the 1980-1984 U.S. birth cohort from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to examine the relationships between men's and women's job quality and their entry into marital or cohabiting unions. We advance existing literature by moving beyond basic measures of employment and earnings and investigating how detailed measures of job quality matter for union formation. We find that men and women in less precarious jobs-both jobs with standard work schedules and those that provide fringe benefits-are more likely to marry. Further, differences in job quality explain a significant portion of the educational gradient in entry into first marriage. However, these dimensions of job quality are not predictive of cohabitation.

The Declining Labor Market Prospects of Less-Educated Men

Over the last half century, US wage growth stagnated, wage inequality rose, and the labor-force participation rate of prime-age men steadily declined. In this article, we examine these worrying labor market trends, focusing on outcomes for males without a college education. Though wages and participation have fallen in tandem for this population, we argue that the canonical neoclassical framework, which postulates a labor demand curve shifting inward across a stable labor supply curve, does not reasonably explain the data. Alternatives we discuss include adjustment frictions associated with labor demand shocks and effects of the changing marriage market—that is, the fact that fewer less-educated men are forming their own stable families—on male labor supply incentives. In the synthesis that emerges, the phenomenon of declining prime-age male labor-force participation is not coherently explained by a series of causal factors acting separately. A more reasonable interpretation, we argue, involves complex feedbacks between labor demand, family structure, and other factors that have disproportionately affected less-educated men.

Cross-National Comparisons of Union Stability in Cohabiting and Married Families With Children

Increases in cohabitation, nonmarital childbearing, and partnership dissolution have reshaped the family landscape in most Western countries. The United States shares many features of family change common elsewhere, although it is exceptional in its high degree of union instability. In this study, we use the Harmonized Histories to provide a rich, descriptive account of union instability among couples who have had a child together in the United States and several European countries. First, we compare within-country differences between cohabiting and married parents in education, prior family experiences, and age at first birth. Second, we estimate differences in the stability of cohabiting and married parents, paying attention to transitions into marriage among those cohabiting at birth. Finally, we explore the implications of differences in parents' characteristics for union instability and the magnitude of social class differences in union instability across countries. Although similar factors are associated with union instability across countries, some (prior childbearing, early childbearing) are by far more common in the United States, accounting in part for higher shares separating. The factors associated with union instability-lower education, prior childbearing, early childbearing-also tend to be more tightly packaged in the United States than elsewhere, suggesting greater inequality in resources for children.